CN110648072A - Power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process - Google Patents

Power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process Download PDF

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CN110648072A
CN110648072A CN201910918966.6A CN201910918966A CN110648072A CN 110648072 A CN110648072 A CN 110648072A CN 201910918966 A CN201910918966 A CN 201910918966A CN 110648072 A CN110648072 A CN 110648072A
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于浩
毛文杰
陆俊
吴可香
刘军
刘涛
钱锜
张璐
李振伟
程康
陈会杰
张丽丽
杨小蕾
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Nanjing Hua Su Science And Technology Ltd
Nari Information and Communication Technology Co
Information and Telecommunication Branch of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co Ltd
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Nari Information and Communication Technology Co
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Abstract

The invention relates to a power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which comprises the following steps of: (1) establishing a risk index system of the system; (2) determining a factor set: determining a factor set according to the established risk index system in the step (1); dividing and processing according to different levels of factors; (3) determination of fuzzy weight set: ranking the evaluation factors according to the importance degree, thereby determining the fuzzy weight of the factors; (4) determination of comment set: collecting the factors divided into 3-7 levels and setting the factors as a comment set; (5) establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix: determining the grade of the evaluated factors according to the data of the evaluated factors, and then counting the evaluation results to obtain an evaluation result statistical table; solving the membership degree of the comments of different grades of each factor through the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; (6) calculating a comprehensive evaluation result: and calculating the risk by adopting an algorithm and obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result.

Description

Power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of communication, in particular to a power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process.
Background
The power communication network is a communication private network for the operation of a power system and is one of three main pillars for safe, stable and reliable production of a modern power network. The risk assessment of the operation and maintenance of the power communication is a prior means for ensuring the operation of the communication network, and is vital to ensuring the safe, stable and reliable operation of the communication network and preventing disaster accidents. Because multiple condition factors such as network security, equipment security, business security and the like need to be considered in the risk assessment process, how to carry out overall comprehensive risk assessment under the condition of multiple dimensions and multiple resources is an important problem to be solved.
Wherein, the assets: the method refers to the things which are directly endowed with value and need to be protected by enterprises and institutions. The vulnerabilities, threats faced, protections and security controls that need to be implemented vary from asset to asset.
Weak points: refers to vulnerabilities in assets that can be exploited. Vulnerabilities can be either hardware or software.
Threat: refers to the potential cause of a damage incident that may be done to an asset or organization.
Risk: refers to the potential for a particular threat to exploit one or a set of vulnerabilities of an asset, resulting in loss or damage to the asset.
The electric power communication network comprises various communication devices, network devices and machine rooms which are organized together to form a multi-technology and multi-level complex network structure, so that a risk evaluation index system of the electric power communication network needs to be considered. According to the concept of the risk of the power communication network, assets, weak points, threats and risks in the power communication network need to be identified, meanwhile, influence factors of risk points are mined, and a power communication network-oriented risk index system is established.
Currently, research methods for risk assessment are mainly divided into three categories: quantitative risk assessment, qualitative risk assessment, and a combined quantitative and qualitative assessment method. The qualitative method can dig some ideas with deep hiding, so that the conclusion of the comment is more comprehensive and deeper, but the subjectivity is too strong, and the comment is often influenced by factors such as knowledge, experience, teaching and training of an evaluator. The quantitative method expresses the evaluation result through visual data, which is clear at a glance, but can simplify the original complex affairs, lose the main factors, and possibly misunderstand and misinterpret some factors. Therefore, the scientificity and objectivity of evaluation can be embodied by adopting a method combining qualitative and quantitative determination. In the actual risk assessment process, an assessment object is an analytic hierarchy process which is a main means, however, the analytic hierarchy process is not easy to convince under the conditions of too many indexes and too large data volume, and it is very difficult to check and judge whether the matrixes are consistent. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process combines the fuzzy method and the analytic hierarchy process, and optimizes the limitation of the analytic hierarchy process in practical application.
Therefore, it is necessary to provide a method for power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which constructs risk assessment indexes according to actual situations, starts from the aspects of practicability and operability by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and combines the characteristics of the power communication network.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which is used for carrying out risk assessment on power communication operation and maintenance by utilizing the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, modeling multiple dimensions of business safety risk, network safety risk and equipment safety risk in communication operation, excavating risk points of equipment and an optical cable from the multiple dimensions, and comprehensively assessing the power communication operation and maintenance safety risk; the stability and the accuracy of data prediction are improved, and a solution is provided for risk assessment of the communication network.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the technical scheme that: the power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing a risk index system of the system;
(2) determining a factor set: determining a factor set according to the established risk index system in the step (1); dividing and processing according to different levels of factors;
(3) determination of fuzzy weight set: ranking the evaluation factors according to the importance degree, thereby determining the fuzzy weight of the factors;
(4) determination of comment set: collecting the factors divided into 3-7 levels and setting the factors as a comment set;
(5) establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix: determining the grade of the evaluated factors according to the data of the evaluated factors, and then counting the evaluation results to obtain an evaluation result statistical table; solving the membership degree of the comments of different grades of each factor through the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) calculating a comprehensive evaluation result: and calculating the risk by adopting an algorithm and obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result.
By adopting the technical scheme, the risk index system really reflects the performance of the system, and the basic principle of designing the index system is as follows: testability, independence and consistency; setting a comment set as V; an expert can fill in an evaluation card, corresponding grades are given according to the specific conditions of the evaluated factors, and then the evaluation conditions are counted; listing an evaluation result statistical table, solving the membership degree of each factor belonging to different grades of comments by the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; the principle of the multi-layer comprehensive evaluation is as follows: and (4) evaluating from the bottommost layer, taking the evaluation result of each layer as a single-factor evaluation set of the previous layer, forming a single-factor evaluation matrix of the higher layer, and sequentially carrying out evaluation until the evaluation of the highest layer is finished.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, an improved metric function is adopted in the step (6) for calculating the risk by using an algorithm; the metric function is: r ═ f (p, q), where p represents the probability of occurrence of an indeterminate event, q represents the consequence of occurrence of an indeterminate event, and R is the calculation result;
for the security risk of power communication, the assets, threats and vulnerabilities need to be considered comprehensively, X assets, Y threats and Z vulnerabilities are set, and the total risk of the system can be expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0002217016630000031
wherein ViRepresenting asset value, TjRepresenting a threat, QkRepresenting a weak point, P (T)j,Qk) Representative threat TjLower weak point QkThe probability of occurrence.
As a preferred technique of the present inventionIn the technical scheme, when in a service model, the safety risk is formed by an optical cable and equipment together, a reference circuit calculates a resistance calculation mode and divides into a series-parallel scene; wherein the series scenario Req=∑RiIn parallel connection with a scene ofWherein i is 1 … n; reqIs the total risk of the system; riIs the risk value of a single cable or device.
As a preferred technical solution of the present invention, the risk indicator system in step (1) includes an optical cable risk indicator system and an equipment risk indicator system. The electric power communication network comprises various communication devices, network devices and machine rooms which are organized together to form a multi-technology and multi-level complex network structure, so that a risk evaluation index system of the electric power communication network needs to be considered. The lower diagram is an abstract model, equipment is represented as nodes, the nodes are connected through optical cables, and services are carried on links. The power communication security risk refers to determining the serious loss of the whole system caused by the loss or damage of each resource in the power communication network management, and is the evaluation of threats, vulnerabilities and the risk caused by the vulnerabilities.
As a preferred technical scheme of the invention, the optical cable risk indicator system comprises an optical cable threat index and an optical cable weak point; the optical cable threat indexes comprise construction influence, transportation, electromagnetization, natural disasters and human factors; the weak points of the optical cable comprise insufficient overhead height, common erection of power lines, insufficient protection strength and insufficient buried depth. For optical cables, threats include construction impact, transportation, electromagnetization, man-made damage, and natural disasters, and weak points include insufficient overhead height, erection together with power lines, insufficient protection strength and facilities, and insufficient buried depth.
As a preferred technical scheme of the invention, the equipment safety risk comprises equipment threat indexes and equipment vulnerability; the equipment threat indicators comprise vibration, equipment aging, equipment overload and continuous operation; the equipment vulnerabilities include poor equipment quality, improper periodic inspection, improper protection, and insecure fixturing. For equipment, threats include vibration, equipment aging, equipment overload and continuous operation, and weak points include poor quality of equipment, periodic inspections, improper protection, and insecure fixturing. Asset impact can be viewed as a traffic stability impact running on a link, from low to high including traffic delay, traffic impairment and traffic interruption.
By adopting the technical scheme, the risk evaluation is carried out on the electric power communication operation and maintenance by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, multiple dimensions of service safety risk, network safety risk and equipment safety risk in communication operation are modeled, risk points of equipment and an optical cable are excavated from the multiple dimensions, and the electric power communication operation and maintenance safety risk is comprehensively evaluated; the electric power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is high in reasonability and effectiveness.
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The technical scheme of the invention is further described by combining the accompanying drawings as follows:
FIG. 1 is a risk model of an electric power communication service in the method for evaluating the operation and maintenance safety risk of electric power communication based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a security risk of an optical cable in the method for power communication operation and maintenance security risk assessment based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a safety risk of the device in the method for power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of the invention;
fig. 4 is an algorithm diagram of embodiment 2 in the method for assessing the safety risk of power communication operation and maintenance based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For the purpose of enhancing the understanding of the present invention, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples, which are provided for the purpose of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
Example 1: as shown in fig. 1 to 3, the method for evaluating the power communication operation and maintenance safety risk based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process includes the following steps:
(1) establishing a risk index system of the system; the risk index system comprises an optical cable risk index system and an equipment risk index system;
the optical cable risk indicator system comprises optical cable threat indicators and optical cable weak points; the optical cable threat indexes comprise construction influence, transportation, electromagnetization, natural disasters and human factors; the weak points of the optical cable comprise insufficient overhead height, common erection of power lines, insufficient protection strength and insufficient buried depth; as shown in fig. 2;
the equipment security risk comprises equipment threat indicators and equipment vulnerabilities; the equipment threat indicators comprise vibration, equipment aging, equipment overload and continuous operation; the equipment vulnerability comprises poor quality, unreasonable regular inspection, unreasonable protection and insecure fixation; as shown in fig. 3;
(2) determining a factor set: determining a factor set according to the established risk index system in the step (1); dividing and processing according to different levels of factors;
(3) determination of fuzzy weight set: ranking the evaluation factors according to the importance degree, thereby determining the fuzzy weight of the factors;
(4) determination of comment set: collecting the factors divided into 3-7 levels and setting the factors as a comment set;
(5) establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix: determining the grade of the evaluated factors according to the data of the evaluated factors, and then counting the evaluation results to obtain an evaluation result statistical table; solving the membership degree of the comments of different grades of each factor through the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) calculating a comprehensive evaluation result: calculating risks by adopting an algorithm and obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result;
in the step (6), an improved metric function is adopted for calculating the risk by adopting an algorithm; the metric function is: r ═ f (p, q), where p represents the probability of occurrence of an indeterminate event, q represents the consequence of occurrence of an indeterminate event, and R is the calculation result;
for the security risk of power communication, the assets, threats and vulnerabilities need to be considered comprehensively, X assets, Y threats and Z vulnerabilities are set, and the total risk of the system can be expressed as follows:
Figure BDA0002217016630000051
wherein ViRepresenting asset value, TjRepresenting a threat, QkRepresenting a weak point, P (T)j,Qk) Representative threat TjLower weak point QkThe probability of occurrence.
When in a service model, the safety risk is formed by an optical cable and equipment together, a reference circuit calculates a resistance calculation mode and divides into a series-parallel scene; wherein the series scenario Req=∑RiIn parallel connection with a scene of
Figure BDA0002217016630000061
Wherein i is 1 … n; reqIs the total risk of the system; riIs a risk value for a single device or cable.
Example 2: constructing a power communication network example by taking a power communication operation and maintenance scene of a certain city as a sample, as shown in fig. 4;
(1) establishing a risk index system of the system; determining index weights of the optical cable and the equipment according to a Delphi expert investigation method on the basis of a risk index system; according to the characteristics of the optical cable and the equipment, the risk evaluation is defined as 3 grades: determining membership function of index layer by adopting expert evaluation method, and then using the membership function { risk evaluation low V1, risk evaluation medium V2 and risk evaluation high V3}, wherein V isCalculating evaluation vectors of the intermediate layer and the target layer respectively by a fuzzy synthesis operator; the following table 1 is an optical cable risk index information table;
table 1 optical cable risk index information table
Figure BDA0002217016630000063
The following table 2 is an equipment risk index information table;
TABLE 2 Equipment Risk indicator information Table
(2) Determining a factor set: determining a factor set according to the established risk index system in the step (1); dividing and processing according to different levels of factors;
(3) determination of fuzzy weight set: ranking the evaluation factors according to the importance degree, thereby determining the fuzzy weight of the factors;
(4) determination of comment set: collecting the factors divided into 3-7 levels and setting the factors as a comment set;
(5) establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix: determining the grade of the evaluated factors according to the data of the evaluated factors, and then counting the evaluation results to obtain an evaluation result statistical table; solving the membership degree of the comments of different grades of each factor through the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) calculating a comprehensive evaluation result: calculating risks by adopting an algorithm and obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result;
assuming that the fuzzy vector is v ═ 0.1,0.5,0.7, the risk values for the cables and equipment are calculated as follows:
L=(0.21,0.47,0.33)(0.1,0.5,0.7)TX(0.03,0.22,0.75)(0.1,0.5,0.7)T=0.31
D=(0.22,0.38,0.41)(0.1,0.5,0.7)TX(0.03,0.22,0.75)(0.1,0.5,0.7)T=0.318
therefore, the primary channel has a risk value of 3L +2D of 1.566, and the backup channel has a risk value of 2L + D of 0.938. The overall risk value is calculated as
Figure BDA0002217016630000081
The comprehensive risk value is lower than the respective risk values of the main channel and the standby channel.
It is obvious to those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and it is within the scope of the present invention to adopt various insubstantial modifications of the method concept and technical scheme of the present invention, or to directly apply the concept and technical scheme of the present invention to other occasions without modification.

Claims (6)

1. A power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment method based on a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) establishing a risk index system of the system;
(2) determining a factor set: determining a factor set according to the established risk index system in the step (1); dividing and processing according to different levels of factors;
(3) determination of fuzzy weight set: ranking the evaluation factors according to the importance degree, thereby determining the fuzzy weight of the factors;
(4) determination of comment set: collecting the factors divided into 3-7 levels and setting the factors as a comment set;
(5) establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix: determining the grade of the evaluated factors according to the data of the evaluated factors, and then counting the evaluation results to obtain an evaluation result statistical table; solving the membership degree of the comments of different grades of each factor through the evaluation result statistical table, and then establishing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
(6) calculating a comprehensive evaluation result: and calculating the risk by adopting an algorithm and obtaining a comprehensive evaluation result.
2. The method for assessing the operation and maintenance safety risk of power communication based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of claim 1, wherein the step (6) of calculating the risk by using an algorithm uses an improved metric function; the metric function is: r ═ f (p, q), where p represents the probability of occurrence of an indeterminate event, q represents the consequence of occurrence of an indeterminate event, and R is the calculation result;
for the security risk of power communication, the assets, threats and vulnerabilities need to be considered comprehensively, X assets, Y threats and Z vulnerabilities are set, and the total risk of the system can be expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0002217016620000011
wherein ViRepresenting asset value, TjRepresenting a threat, QkRepresenting a weak point, P (T)j,Qk) Representative threat TjLower weak point QkThe probability of occurrence.
3. The method for assessing the operation and maintenance safety risk of power communication based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of claim 2, wherein when the safety risk is formed by an optical cable and equipment in a business model, the reference circuit calculates a resistance calculation mode and is divided into a series-parallel scene; wherein the series scenario Req=∑RiIn parallel connection with a scene of
Figure FDA0002217016620000021
Wherein i is 1 … n; reqIs the total risk of the system; riIs the risk value of a single cable or device.
4. The method for assessing operation and maintenance safety risk of power communication based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of claim 3, wherein the risk indicator system in the step (1) comprises an optical cable risk indicator system and an equipment risk indicator system.
5. The method for assessing the operational safety risk of electric power communication based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of claim 4, wherein the optical cable risk indicator system comprises an optical cable threat indicator and an optical cable weak point; the optical cable threat indexes comprise construction influence, transportation, electromagnetization, natural disasters and human factors; the weak points of the optical cable comprise insufficient overhead height, common erection of power lines, insufficient protection strength and insufficient buried depth.
6. The method for power communication operation and maintenance safety risk assessment based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process of claim 4, wherein the equipment safety risk comprises equipment threat index and equipment vulnerability; the equipment threat indicators comprise vibration, equipment aging, equipment overload and continuous operation; the equipment vulnerabilities include poor equipment quality, improper periodic inspection, improper protection, and insecure fixturing.
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CN111614615A (en) * 2020-04-16 2020-09-01 国网浙江省电力有限公司湖州供电公司 Network security quantitative evaluation method for transformer substation power monitoring system
CN113592324A (en) * 2021-08-05 2021-11-02 国网江苏省电力有限公司无锡供电分公司 Cable terminal tower live-line work risk assessment method based on hierarchical analysis
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CN111340337A (en) * 2020-02-14 2020-06-26 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 Method for evaluating operation risk of power distribution network by high-permeability distributed power supply grid connection
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CN111489077A (en) * 2020-04-07 2020-08-04 王菲 Reliability assessment method for power communication system
CN111614615A (en) * 2020-04-16 2020-09-01 国网浙江省电力有限公司湖州供电公司 Network security quantitative evaluation method for transformer substation power monitoring system
CN113592324A (en) * 2021-08-05 2021-11-02 国网江苏省电力有限公司无锡供电分公司 Cable terminal tower live-line work risk assessment method based on hierarchical analysis
CN114022000A (en) * 2021-11-09 2022-02-08 中交智运有限公司 Vehicle road transportation risk assessment method and system based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
CN116318915A (en) * 2023-02-22 2023-06-23 深圳市众云网有限公司 Network security risk assessment service system
CN116208429A (en) * 2023-04-27 2023-06-02 中国信息通信研究院 Security capability evaluation method and device of zero trust system architecture
CN116208429B (en) * 2023-04-27 2023-07-21 中国信息通信研究院 Security capability evaluation method and device of zero trust system architecture

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