CN110457721A - Method is determined based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis - Google Patents
Method is determined based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of chemical industry safety operation domains based on global parameter sensitivity analysis to determine method, mainly solves the problems, such as that it is poor to be difficult to accurate determination, safety for boundary condition in the prior art.The present invention determines method by using a kind of chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis, it is established including reaction model, global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating, security boundary condition and security domain determine, based on global parameter Sensitivity Analysis, obtain the critical pumping rate of the thermal runaway under various reaction patterns, external cooling medium is considered simultaneously, catalyst particles intragranular, intergranular heat transfer, influence of the mass transfer to thermal runaway region, multivariable collective effect condition is obtained to the reactivity hazard of system, the affecting laws of material risk and separation process risk, determine that the technical solution in chemical industry safety operation domain preferably solves the above problem, it can be used in the determination of chemical industry safety operation domain.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of chemical industry safety operation domains based on global parameter sensitivity analysis to determine method.
Background technique
In chemical process, the boundary of reaction system safety operation and thermal runaway is divided, that is, determines that safety operation domain has
Very great meaning, especially when operating parameter changes near parameter sensitivity critical value, the minor change of parameter will draw
Play the change dramatically of temperature.Parameters sensitivity analysis method helps theoretically to disclose reactor safe operating range, makes
The adverse consequences due to caused by different operation Parameters variation can be just avoided that before reactor design neutralization operation.
Since the variation of the complexity of chemical reaction system, especially system mode to operating condition is quite sensitive, so
The design parameter and operating parameter for influencing chemical reaction system process are various.The free-revving engine of parameters sensitivity analysis it
First is that determining the key input value (parameter and primary condition) of model, how the uncertainty that simultaneous quantitative obtains input value influences
Model result facilitates the degree of reliability for quantitatively obtaining a model, so as to the suitable model selection of determination, while can
It helps us to identify the major parameter for significantly affecting result and its influences size.Forefathers are most about the prediction of safety critical criterion
It is directly fitted using the even simple data of local sensitivity degree analysis method, often departing from the intrinsic kinetics of reaction, suddenly
The interaction between performance variable has been omited, has been difficult to accurately predict reaction result under actual complex operating condition.Practical Chemical Manufacture
The process overwhelming majority is multi-parameter nonlinear system, and there are two significant features first is that parameter is numerous, second is that depositing between parameter for tool
In strong interaction, a parameter small variations can make the output result of system generate very big variation.More ginsengs
Not only amount of calculation is big for the optimization design of number nonlinear system, but also is difficult to obtain theoretic optimal solution.Document shows (Jiang
Army is at, Jiang Jiajia, progress [J] the chemical industry progress of Pan Yong chemical reacting flow thermal runaway critical pumping rate, and 2009,28
(11): 1890-1895.), the sensitivity to parameter region of the chemical reactors such as fixed bed can pass through reaction heat effect and reactor
Empirical relation between cooling parameter substantially determines, but since local sensitivity degree analysis method can not phase between parameter of measurement
Mutual coupling acts on the indirect influence on model result, so that the range determination in safety operation domain often has large error.
Therefore, the agent model technology with higher computing efficiency and the global sensitivity analysis that important parameter can be screened
Have become the primary study content of multi-parameter nonlinear system.Global sensitivity analysis method is based on method of value solving, in weight
The property wanted measurement, model Orthogonal Decomposition etc. have unique advantage, computational physics, Chemical Reaction Engineering, biomedicine,
The fields such as macroeconomics are widely used, and recently as the development of nonlinear science, the thinking of global sensitivity analysis is recognized
For the problem that can efficiently solve the foundation of higher-dimension complex model.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to the boundary conditions of safety operation in the prior art to be difficult to accurately determine, pacify
The poor problem of full property provides the new chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis of one kind and determines method, has
Have the advantages that safety is preferable.
To solve the above problems, The technical solution adopted by the invention is as follows: a kind of based on global parameter sensitivity analysis
Chemical industry safety operation domain determines method, including reaction model foundation, global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating, security boundary condition with
Security domain determines, is based on global parameter Sensitivity Analysis, obtains the critical pumping rate of the thermal runaway under various reaction patterns, together
When consider external cooling medium, catalyst particles intragranular, intergranular heat transfer, influence of the mass transfer to thermal runaway region obtain changeable
Collective effect condition is measured to the reactivity hazard of system, the affecting laws of material risk and separation process risk, determinization
Work safety operation domain, mainly comprises the steps that
(1) reaction model is established: establishing energy and material balance equation, bonding apparatus according to differential responses kinetic characteristics
Reactor model is established in the heat transfer of property and cooling medium;
(2) global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating: according to reaction model, each parameter is enabled to become in possible value range
It is dynamic, it studies and predicts influence degree of the variation to model output value of these parameters, investigate variable and fully entering spatial variations
Combined influence;
(3) security boundary condition and security domain determine: according to global parameter sensitivity analysis result input data
The influence that uncertainty exports system, each rank sensitivity number index and total sensitive number for quantitatively calculating each operating parameter refer to
Number, and then directly or indirectly influence of each single item Parameters variation on model result is obtained, finally identify that influence system is joined safely
Several major parameter changing rules realizes Error Tracing &, determines safety operation boundary.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that basic operation parameter involved in step (1) include initial concentration, initially into
Material temperature degree, coolant temperature, reactor parameter, catalyst parameters, operating pressure, different process need to become according to main influence
Amount is respectively established.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that in step (2), for the nonlinear complicated analysis on change of various process,
Using the method based on model output result variation decomposition or based on the calculation method of sampling.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that it further include scatter plot and model entry evaluation step after reaction model is established,
Required sampling samples are generated using methods of sampling simulation, are substituted into reaction system model and are calculated corresponding output, with output
Parameter is ordinate, and input parameter is abscissa, and input parameter value and corresponding output parameter result are indicated on scatter plot,
Qualitative analysis inputs the uncertain influence to output parameter of parameter, investigates the relationship between input parameter and output parameter,
Then it is analysed in depth using other global sensitivity analysis methods are further.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that global parameter Sensitivity Analysis includes FAST, EFAST, Monte
Carlo, Sobol, Morris method.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that further include that variation decomposition and calculating are tied after global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating
Fruit analytical procedure obtains the population variance of model by coupling between each input parameter and each parameter jointly, and then model is exported
Variation decomposition calculates each parameter and directly contributes specific gravity and export population variance to model indirectly by coupling between parameter
The sum of specific gravity is contributed, total sensitive degree exponent of parameters is obtained.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that in security boundary condition and operation domain determination, association reaction system model result
With parameter global sensibility, whole sensibility sequence is obtained, obtains parameter fluctuation to the affecting laws of system core parameter, in turn
Determine the margin of safety of chemical reaction process.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that it further include determining input variable and distribution step before reaction model foundation,
Reaction system to be investigated is analyzed comprehensively, identifies correlated variables, and determine variable perturbations range.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that in global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating, according to the analysis of scatter plot as a result,
The uncertain characterization of input parameter is added, parameter pair is inputted using corresponding global parameter Sensitivity Analysis quantitative analysis
The influence of result is exported, considers the coupling between parameter, calculates separately each input variable to the population variance for exporting result
Contribution.
In above-mentioned technical proposal, it is preferable that determine method based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis
Be made of in six steps three portions, six steps successively carry out in calculating process, sequence it is as follows: (1) determine input variable and
Distribution;(2) reaction system model is established;(3) scatter plot and model entry evaluation;(4) parameters sensitivity analysis calculates;(5) side
Difference Solution and calculated result are analyzed;(6) security boundary condition and operation domain determine.
The thinking of global parameter sensitivity analysis is introduced into chemical process model by the present invention, passes through global sensitivity analysis
The inner link between each operating parameter and its affecting laws to system safety-critical parameter are obtained, and then determine that multi-parameter is total
The security boundary condition of reaction system under the influence of, provides safeguard for chemical processes safety stable operation.This patent is compared to existing
Some chemical processes safety operation domains determine method, it is possible to reduce the workload of Data Analysis Services reduces the complexity of model,
Theory deduction and model foundation are carried out based on system nature's dynamic characteristic simultaneously, largely improve the essence of model
Degree, researcher and engineers and technicians can utilize the result of each parameter sensitivity property coefficient and the affecting laws solution to system safety
Certainly corresponding problem, for determining chemical processes safety opereating specification, ensureing that chemical industry equipment safe operation has important application
Promotional value achieves preferable technical effect.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 determines flow diagram for the chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis.
Fig. 2 is certain epoxidation technique global parameter sensitivity indices.
Fig. 3 is under same pH value condition, and the model of conventional model and combination global parameter sensibility is to oxygen content with temperature
The prediction result (conventional model/single order sensibility calculation method) of degree and the variation of air speed.
Fig. 4 is under same pH value condition, and the model of conventional model and combination global parameter sensibility is to oxygen content with temperature
The prediction result (prediction model of global parameter sensibility) of degree and the variation of air speed.
The present invention will be further described below by way of examples, but is not limited only to the present embodiment.
Specific embodiment
[embodiment 1]
A kind of chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis determines method, as shown in Figure 1.
The present invention mainly passes through determining reaction system ESD protection area, avoids equal dangerous generation out of control, can use
To a variety of reaction systems such as intermittent/continous way, parallel and tandem reactions, calculated according to the following steps:
1. determining input variable and distribution.
Reaction system to be investigated is analyzed comprehensively, identifies correlated variables, and determine variable perturbations range.
2. establishing reaction system model.
According to reaction system feature, the quasi- homogeneous/heterogeneous model of one-dimensional/bis- peacekeepings is established, material balance and energy are established
Equilibrium equation, association reaction dynamics and thermodynamic parameter establish temperature of reactor, coolant temperature, between conversion ratio
Algebraic relation, if y=f (X) is function expression, X=(x1, x2, x3 ..., xn) is that n ties up input variable, each variable has
One probability density function.
3. scatter plot and model entry evaluation.
Required sampling samples are generated using methods of sampling simulation, and it is corresponding defeated to substitute into calculating in reaction system model
Out, using output parameter as ordinate, input parameter is abscissa, and input parameter value and corresponding output parameter result are indicated
On scatter plot, qualitative analysis inputs the uncertain influence to output parameter of parameter, investigate input parameter and output parameter it
Between relationship, such as whether there is non-linear relation between input parameter and output parameter, then utilize other global sensibility
Analysis method is further to be analysed in depth.
4. parameters sensitivity analysis calculates.
It is quick using corresponding global parameter according to the analysis of scatter plot as a result, the uncertain characterization of input parameter is added
(FAST, EFAST, Monte Carlo, the Sobol, Morris etc.) quantitative analysis of perceptual analysis method inputs parameter to output result
Influence, consider parameter between coupling, calculate separately each input variable to output result population variance contribution.
5. variation decomposition and calculated result are analyzed.
The population variance of model is obtained by coupling between each input parameter and each parameter jointly, and then by model output variance
It decomposes, calculates the contribution that each parameter directly contributes specific gravity and exports population variance to model indirectly by coupling between parameter
The sum of specific gravity realizes Error Tracing &, obtains total sensitive degree exponent of parameters.
6. security boundary condition and operation domain determine.
Association reaction system model result and parameter global sensibility, obtain whole sensibility sequence, obtain parameter fluctuation
To the affecting laws of system core parameter, does not cause inflection point that state changes to thermal runaway such as, may cause containing for certain substance
Amount is more than secure threshold etc., and then determines the margin of safety of chemical reaction process.
[embodiment 2]
By taking certain fixed bed epoxidation reaction process as an example, the method according to the invention investigated different parameters (including temperature,
Concentration, pressure, air speed, cooling medium etc.) to system security parameter (including reaction heat, tail gas oxygen content etc.) influence rule
Rule, establishes reactor model using the heat transfer for intending homogeneous two dimensional model combination cooling medium, using based on the complete of Monte Carlo method
Office's Sensitivity Analysis, is as a result shown in Fig. 2.
By taking the tail gas oxygen content being affected to system security risk as an example, as shown in Figure 2, variable single order susceptibility row
Sequence is descending successively are as follows: air speed, temperature, raw material pH, alcohol water ratio, hydrogen peroxide concentration, pressure, alkene water ratio;And consider high-order shadow
The size sequence of the sum of sound are as follows: temperature, air speed, raw material pH, alcohol water ratio, hydrogen peroxide concentration, alkene water ratio, pressure.
Fig. 3, Fig. 4 show under same pH value condition that the model of conventional model and combination global parameter sensibility is to oxygen
Content is with the prediction result of the variation of temperature and air speed, and wherein red area is the higher operating area of risk.
[embodiment 3]
By taking certain methane coupling reaction technique as an example, different parameters have been investigated to system security parameter according to the method for the present invention
The affecting laws of (reaction heat etc.) establish reactor model using the heat transfer for intending homogeneous two dimensional model combination cooling medium, use
Based on the global sensitivity analysis method for expanding the analysis of Fourier's amplitude, the single order susceptibility sequence for obtaining reaction heat is descending
Successively are as follows: air speed, temperature, methane flow, pressure, oxygen flow;And the size sequence for the sum of considering high order effects are as follows: temperature,
Air speed, methane flow, pressure, oxygen flow;And then safety operation domain is determined based on this.
[embodiment 4]
By taking certain rubber polymerization technology as an example, influence of the different parameters to exothermic heat of reaction has been investigated according to the method for the present invention
Rule obtains the single order susceptibility row of polymerization reaction heat using the Global sensitivity analysis method analyzed based on Fourier's amplitude
Sequence is descending successively are as follows: co-catalyst amount, air speed, main catalytic dosage, temperature, pressure;And the sum of consider high order effects it is big
Small order are as follows: air speed, co-catalysis dosage, main catalytic dosage, temperature, pressure;And then safety operation domain is determined based on this.
Obviously, the safety operation domain of chemical process can be determined more scientificly by global parameter sensitivity analysis.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis determines that method, including reaction model are established, are complete
Office's parameters sensitivity analysis calculates, security boundary condition and security domain determine, is based on global parameter Sensitivity Analysis, obtains
The critical pumping rate of thermal runaway under various reaction patterns, while considering external cooling medium, catalyst particles intragranular, intergranular biography
Heat, influence of the mass transfer to thermal runaway region obtain reactivity hazard of the multivariable collective effect condition to system, material risk
And the affecting laws of separation process risk, it determines chemical industry safety operation domain, mainly comprises the steps that
(1) reaction model is established: establishing energy and material balance equation, bonding apparatus property according to differential responses kinetic characteristics
Reactor model is established in heat transfer with cooling medium;
(2) global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating: according to reaction model, enabling each parameter change in possible value range,
It studies and predicts influence degree of the variation to model output value of these parameters, investigate variable and fully entering the comprehensive of spatial variations
Group photo is rung;
(3) security boundary condition and security domain determine: according to the not true of global parameter sensitivity analysis result input data
The qualitative influence to system output quantitatively calculates each rank sensitivity number index and total sensitive number index of each operating parameter, into
And directly or indirectly influence of each single item Parameters variation on model result is obtained, finally identify the master of influence system security parameter
Parameter Variation is wanted, Error Tracing & is realized, determines safety operation boundary.
2. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is that basic operation parameter involved in step (1) includes initial concentration, initial charge temperature, coolant temperature, reactor
Parameter, catalyst parameters, operating pressure, different process need to be respectively established according to main variation.
3. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is in step (2), for the nonlinear complicated analysis on change of various process, using based on model output result variance point
The method of solution or calculation method based on sampling.
4. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It further include scatter plot and model entry evaluation step, needed for being generated using methods of sampling simulation after being that reaction model is established
Sampling samples, substitute into reaction system model and calculate corresponding output, using output parameter as ordinate, input parameter is horizontal seat
Input parameter value and corresponding output parameter result are indicated on scatter plot that qualitative analysis inputs the uncertainty of parameter by mark
The relationship between input parameter and output parameter is investigated in influence to output parameter, then utilizes other global sensitivity analysis
Method is further to be analysed in depth.
5. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is that global parameter Sensitivity Analysis includes FAST, EFAST, Monte Carlo, Sobol, Morris method.
6. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
Further include variation decomposition and calculated result analytical procedure after being global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating, by each input parameter and
Coupling obtains the population variance of model jointly between each parameter, and then model output variance is decomposed, and it is direct to calculate each parameter
It contributes specific gravity and exports the sum of the contribution specific gravity of population variance to model indirectly by coupling between parameter, obtain parameters
Total sensitive degree exponent.
7. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
In being that security boundary condition and operation domain determine, association reaction system model result and parameter global sensibility obtain entirety
Sensibility sequence obtains parameter fluctuation to the affecting laws of system core parameter, and then determines that the safety of chemical reaction process is faced
Dividing value.
8. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is before reaction model is established, further includes determining input variable and distribution step, analyze reaction system to be investigated comprehensively, knows
Other correlated variables, and determine variable perturbations range.
9. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is in global parameter sensitivity analysis calculating, is characterized according to the analysis of scatter plot as a result, the uncertain of input parameter is added,
Using corresponding global parameter Sensitivity Analysis quantitative analysis input parameter to output result influence, consider parameter between
Coupling calculates separately contribution of each input variable to the population variance of output result.
10. determining method, feature based on the chemical industry safety operation domain of global parameter sensitivity analysis according to claim 1
It is that the chemical industry safety operation domain based on global parameter sensitivity analysis determines that method is made of in six steps three portions, calculates
Six steps successively carry out in the process, and sequence is as follows: (1) determining input variable and distribution;(2) reaction system model is established;(3)
Scatter plot and model entry evaluation;(4) parameters sensitivity analysis calculates;(5) variation decomposition and calculated result are analyzed;(6) safety
Boundary condition and operation domain determine.
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