CN110298012A - Mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method based on test data Yu O&M information - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method based on test data Yu O&M information, include the following steps: 1, establish mesolow XLPE cable residual life evaluation system, 2, cable testing project scoring to be assessed, 3, cable O&M information scoring to be assessed, 4, cable residual life evaluation；The method of the present invention effectively prevents the deviation of laboratory accelerated ageing and actual field operation, all evaluation item inputs are all from the performance test data and related O&M information of actual motion cable, predominantly nondestructive test does not influence the normal operation of cable run, using convenient；Without artificially specified index weights, the objectivity of assessment system ensure that；And do not require all items completely to input, cable status grading and life prediction range can be provided in the case where evaluation index is not complete, while providing cable maintenance suggestion, there is important directive significance for practical implementation.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of to the method for carrying out life appraisal in fortune mesolow XLPE cable, and in particular to based on test
Data and O&M information score to cable status, carry out the service life to scene operation mesolow XLPE cable according to obatained score
The method of assessment.
Background technique
Crosslinked polyethylene (XLPE) cable machinery and excellent electrical properties, without tradition oil-filled cable in fire prevention, maintenance, ring
The limitation in border etc., engineer application are in cumulative year after year trend.In China, 35kV and following middle low-voltage-grade XLPE electricity
Cable replaces oil paper cable substantially.With the expansion of application range and the increase of the operation time limit, mesolow XLPE cable is remained
Remaining life appraisal has become electrical engineering technical field urgent problem to be solved, to raising cable asset management efficiency, rationally peace
Row interruption maintenance and replacement guarantee that power network safety operation is of great significance.
The life appraisal of cable is to obtain the predicted value of cable remaining life based on status assessment, this predicted value
It is an exact value or a life span.From the point of view of the demand of power grid user, it is known that the actual operating status of cable obtains
Its remaining life for reasonable arrangement cable maintenance and replacement, optimization power equipment asset management, improves safe operation of electric network
It is most important.
Xi'an Communications University suddenly it is small it is brilliant be based on Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment, construct matching comprising condition grading and pilot project
Net cable status evaluation system, condition grading project also include economic factor, strategic factor in addition to technical factor, but actually
It is little to the retired Decision Making Effect of cable that state's inner cable asset management is primarily upon technical factor, economic factor and strategic factor；
Secondly the pilot project for including in evaluation system is to test the physico-chemical analysis of cable insulation sliced piece specimen, need to be by cable from route
Upper disengaging simultaneously carries out destructive sampling, it is difficult to apply in practice；Finally, the system cannot provide the predicting residual useful life of cable
Value, does not provide specific aim instruction for the cable of identical grading, reference value is limited for a user yet.North China electricity
Power university Huang Xiao is graded based on fuzzy synthesis method and artificial neural network, constructs the evaluation of 110kV XLPE cable quality of insulation
And Life Prediction Model, but pilot project is mostly destructive testing in its evaluation model, and it is big using difficulty；In its evaluation model
The important informations such as cable fault scenario, the operation time limit are not included in by " external factor " though can partially reflect cable running environment
It considers, it is not comprehensive enough, and in such a way that expert directly gives a mark, lack objectivity；Meanwhile Life Prediction Model is based on manually
Neural network, in the lesser situation of sample data volume, this method limited accuracy.North China Electric Power University Shi Qingmei is constructed
XLPE cable residual life assesses software frame, but since mesolow cable and high-tension cable are in material, structure, operation, test
Etc. there are significant difference, assessed using same system clearly unreasonable, and it is provided according to mini-test
The way of assessment result, validity and accuracy remain to be discussed.Shanghai Communications University Liu Fei has studied 35kV and following cable is old
Change evaluation system, does not consider non-test property index, be based only upon cable physico-chemical analysis test data and assessed, it is big using difficulty,
Engineering is not strong；And the building of system be based on laboratory accelerated aging test, and live actual motion aging rule deviation compared with
Greatly.
The evaluation system established in the above research work, or be based only upon individual event performance test and assessed, validity
Difference, or need all items data and be unable to lacuna, application limitation is big；Secondly, domestic cable life assessment is based on more
Laboratory accelerated aging test, assessment result and engineering actual deviation are larger；Again, Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment works as decision set element
When size is close, resolution ratio is poor, may cause judgement failure；Finally, what the setting use of index weights was directly given by expert
Mode, evaluation work lack objectivity.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of comprehensive consideration mesolow XLPE cable performance test data and operation and maintenance
The lifetime estimation method of information, this method effectively prevent the deviation of laboratory accelerated ageing and actual field operation, own
Evaluation item input is all from the performance test data and related O&M information of actual motion cable, and predominantly non-destructive is tried
It tests, does not influence the normal operation of cable run, using convenient；Without artificially specified index weights, the visitor of assessment system ensure that
The property seen；And do not require all items completely to input, cable status grading and service life can be provided in the case where evaluation index is not complete
Estimation range, while cable maintenance suggestion is provided, there is important directive significance for practical implementation.
To achieve the goals above, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is that:
A kind of mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method based on test data Yu O&M information, includes the following steps:
Step 1: establish mesolow XLPE cable residual life evaluation system:
1) big data is collected and is arranged,
Comprehensive collection scene runs the performance test data and O&M information of the mesolow XLPE cable of aging, performance test
Based on being tested with Nondestructive field；
2) correlation analysis,
The performance test data and the correlation for the time limit that puts into operation of mesolow XLPE cable are analyzed, setting related condition is met
Pilot project have: voltage rating U0Lower 0.1Hz dielectric loss measurement value, voltage are respectively 2U0And U0Lower 0.1Hz dielectric loss measurement value
Difference, step by step breakdown field strength (breakdown voltage step by step of every grade of 10min and the ratio of cable nominal insulation thickness) and three-phase
Insulation resistance maximum degree of unbalancedness (ratio of maximum resistance value and minimum resistance), is denoted as T, DT, E and R respectivelyb, will more than
Four pilot projects are brought into evaluation system；
3) standards of grading of pilot project are determined,
According to IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 to the regulation of pilot project T and DT, while according to different operation time limit ranges
Cable test data barycenter distribution, formulate the standards of grading of pilot project；
4) cable O&M information grade form is constructed,
Determine involved O&M information project and standards of grading；O&M information project includes the operation time limit, fault condition, fortune
Four O&M information projects of row environment and load level, are denoted as Y, F, A and L respectively, wherein running environment divide again sheath situation,
Water enchroachment (invasion) investigation, laying investigation and passage hidden trouble investigate four aspects；Standards of grading include that the score value of corresponding different problems, individual event obtain
Point and total score calculation method；Table 1 is cable O&M information grade form:
Table 1
5) utilize with correlation difference and scale be respectively independent variable and response variable analytic expression, to analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
(AHP) improve, scale be extended to rational by integer, determine mesolow XLPE cable performance test project T, DT,
E、RbAnd the index weights of O&M information project Y, F, A, L, it is denoted as wT, wDT, wE, wR respectivelyb,wY,wF,wA,wL；
6) assessment total score and accumulated weight factor calculation formula are determined, wherein assessment total score is denoted as G, is commented by pilot project
Divide and the scoring of O&M information is constituted, the accumulated weight factor is denoted as W, by all pilot project weights made a report on and O&M information project
Weight is constituted, and represents the confidence level of assessment result；
7) cable rating scale is formulated, determine expected remaining life and recommends O&M measure, according to assessment total score G, is determined
Cable grading, assessment total score G is higher, and cable grading is poorer, and corresponding expected remaining life is shorter；
Step 2: cable testing project scoring to be assessed, according to the pilot project standards of grading determined in step 1, to assessment
Four pilot projects T, DT, E and R in systembIt scores, and is denoted as gT, gDT, gE, gR respectively after being normalizedb；
Step 3: cable O&M information to be assessed scoring, according to the cable O&M information grade form constructed in step 1, to commenting
Estimate four O&M information projects Y, F, A, L in system to score, appraisal result is denoted as gY, gF, gA, gL respectively；
Step 4: cable residual life evaluation assesses total score G and accumulated weight factor W by calculating, and according in step 1
Determining cable rating scale obtains Condition evaluation, life expectancy and the measure of the O&M of recommendation of assessment cable；Meanwhile with tired
The size of weighted repeated factor W represents the confidence level of assessment result；
The confidence level of assessment result is represented with the accumulated weight factor, data are more complete, and the accumulated weight factor is bigger, as a result
Confidence level is higher；Represent the length of life expectancy with cable grading, according to excellent middle difference sequence cable life expectancy gradually
It reduces, identical cable of grading further determines service sequence, the high cable run Ying You of score according to the height of assessment score
First safeguard.
Compared to the prior art compared with the method for the present invention has the advantage that
1) foundation of evaluation system is collected based on big data, avoids laboratory accelerated ageing and live actual motion aging
Between correspondence is poor, assessment result can not effectively instruct practical problem；
2) in order to reinforce engineering practicability, performance test project mainly considers that scene is routinely tested, avoids dedicated experiments
And destructive testing；
3) project for including in cable O&M information grade form covers each factor for influencing the retired decision of cable, embodies complete
Face property；
4) in such a way that advanced AHP method calculates Term Weight instead of artificial definite value, subjectivity is avoided to influence；
5) it proposes the concept of the accumulated weight factor, and represents the confidence level of assessment result with the accumulated weight factor, both made
Evaluation system can be used in lacuna, also embody influence of the lacuna to assessment result confidence level, before guaranteeing science
It puts and improves practicability；
6) it is proposed for method of the identical cable according to the determining service sequence of assessment score height of grading, improves cable
Maintenance work efficiency.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is that pilot project standards of grading of the present invention formulate schematic diagram.
Fig. 2 is that mesolow XLPE cable evaluation system of the present invention constitutes schematic diagram substantially.
Fig. 3 is the relational graph for assessing total score and cable grading.
Specific embodiment
The present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description.
Mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method based on test data and O&M information proposed by the invention, including
Following steps:
Step 1: establishing mesolow XLPE cable life appraisal system；
1) big data is collected and is arranged；
Comprehensive collection difference put into operation the time limit scene operation aging mesolow XLPE cable performance test data and fortune
Information etc. is tieed up, based on performance test is tested with Nondestructive field.
2) correlation analysis；
Analyze the correlation of cable testing data and the time limit that puts into operation, selection meets the pilot project of related condition: T, DT,
E、RbIt brings into evaluation system.
3) standards of grading of pilot project are determined；
According to IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 to the regulation of pilot project T and DT, while as shown in Figure 1, by cable testing
Data are divided into 4 data sets according to cable difference operation time limit range, and the mass center of each data set is denoted as Ai(i=0,1,2,3),
The standard deviation of each data set is denoted as σi(i=0,1,2,3), it is 0 that the data set barycenter distribution according to 0-5, which formulates scoring score value,
Criterion, according to 5-10 data set barycenter distribution formulate scoring score value be 1 criterion, foundation 10-20 data set matter
The criterion that scoring score value is 2 is formulated in heart distribution, and formulating scoring score values according to 20 years or more data set barycenter distributions is 3 to sentence
According to.As shown in Figure 1, when there is such as A in data set barycenter distribution0With A1Intersection situation or A1With A2Non- intersection situation, intersection
Part or non-intersection part are included into the scoring criterion compared with high score, to guarantee that score-system is not in erroneous judgement situation.Table 2
For the standards of grading of the pilot project of formulation.
Table 2
4) cable O&M information grade form is constructed, determines involved O&M project and standards of grading；
5) index weights are determined；
Using formula (1), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (AHP) is improved, the weight of cable evaluation index is obtained.
Yb=10x+1 (1)
In formula: x is the difference of each index and the time limit correlation that puts into operation, and yb is AHP method scale.
Scale is extended to the rational of 0-9 by revised simplex algorithm by the integer of 0-9, determines that scale is kept away using formula (1)
Exempt from by the directly given brought subjective impact of expert, obtained consistency desired result is more excellent, and determining weight is more objective rationally.
Improved AHP method calculates, determining index weights are as follows:
[wT:0.065,wE:0.474,wDT:0.045,wRb: 0.105, wY:0.188, wL:0.013, wF:0.067,
wA:0.043]
6) assessment total score and accumulated weight factor calculation formula are determined；
Mesolow XLPE cable life appraisal total score is denoted as G, the accumulated weight factor is denoted as W, as shown in Fig. 2, G is by testing
Project scoring and the scoring of O&M information are constituted, and W is made of all pilot project weights made a report on and O&M information project weight.It comments
The calculating for estimating total score G and accumulative index weights W is determined by formula (2) and formula (3), if a certain pilot project or O&M information do not have
It is collected into effective content to score, this is not counted in the calculating of assessment total score G and accumulated weight factor W.
In formula: G1-G8Respectively gT, gE, gDT, gRb, gY, gL, gF, gA, wG1-wG8Respectively wT, wE, wDT, wRb、
wY、wL、wF、wA。
7) cable rating scale is formulated, determine expected remaining life and recommends O&M measure；
As shown in figure 3, descending according to cable assessment total score G, cable is divided into " excellent, good, in, poor " 4 and is assessed etc.
Grade, and determine the remaining life desired extent of cable and the O&M measure of recommendation.Cable rating scale is as shown in table 3.
Table 3
Step 2: cable testing project scoring to be assessed；
It scores the pilot project of 6 on-site cables of number 1#-6#, as shown in table 4.
Table 4
Step 3: cable O&M information scoring to be assessed；
It scores the O&M information of 6 on-site cables of number 1#-6#, as shown in table 5.
Table 5
Step 4: cable residual life evaluation；
The assessment total score and the accumulated weight factor for calculating 6 scene operation cables, grade according to the cable determined in step 1
Standard can determine Condition evaluation, predicting residual useful life range and the O&M measure of recommendation of cable, as shown in table 6.
Table 6
The actual motion state of 6 cables is poor, as seen from Table 6, the grading of 6 cables be " in " or " poor ",
Wherein 3# cable, oversheath damage in insulation, B phase puncture in partial discharge measurement process, and integral insulation state is poor, through present invention side
Method be rated " poor " obtained by status assessment, and remaining life need to be replaced in time less than 1 year；1# cable, it is whole in 6 cables
Body state of insulation is relatively preferable, be rated obtained by the method for the present invention progress status assessment " in ", scoring is 0.409, is lower than it
His cable.It in summary it can be seen, the method for the present invention, cable reality reflected very well to the life appraisal result of mesolow XLPE cable
Border situation.
As seen from Table 6, the grading accumulated weight index of 6 cables is only 40.2%, but there is no because lacking test
Project or O&M information project and cause method unavailable；Meanwhile although 1#, 2#, 4#, 5#, 6# cable grading be all " in ",
But according to assessment total score, it can still determine the priority of cable maintenance or replacement, embody the spy of this method strong applicability
Point.
In short, present invention determine that mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method, can reflect cable virtual condition well,
Application is convenient simultaneously, and strong applicability can provide strong guidance for cable asset management.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of mesolow XLPE cable lifetime estimation method based on test data Yu O&M information, it is characterised in that: including
Following steps:
Step 1: establish mesolow XLPE cable residual life evaluation system:
1) big data is collected and is arranged,
Comprehensive collection scene runs the performance test data and O&M information of the mesolow XLPE cable of aging, and performance test is with non-
Based on destructive field test；
2) correlation analysis,
The performance test data and the correlation for the time limit that puts into operation of mesolow XLPE cable are analyzed, the examination of setting related condition is met
The project of testing has: voltage rating U0Lower 0.1Hz dielectric loss measurement value, voltage are respectively 2U0And U0The difference of lower 0.1Hz dielectric loss measurement value,
Breakdown field strength and three phase isolated resistance maximum degree of unbalancedness step by step, are denoted as T, DT, E and R respectivelyb, above four are tested
Project is brought into evaluation system；
3) standards of grading of pilot project are determined,
According to IEEE.Std.400.2-2013 to the regulation of pilot project T and DT, while according to the electricity of different operation time limit ranges
The test data barycenter distribution of cable, formulates the standards of grading of pilot project；
4) cable O&M information grade form is constructed,
Determine involved O&M information project and standards of grading；O&M information project includes the operation time limit, fault condition, operation ring
The four O&M information projects in border and load level, are denoted as Y, F, A and L, wherein running environment divides sheath situation, water enchroachment (invasion) tune again respectively
It looks into, lay four aspects of investigation and passage hidden trouble investigation；Standards of grading include the score values of corresponding different problems, individual event score and
Total score calculation method；Table 1 is cable O&M information grade form:
Table 1
5) utilize with correlation difference and scale be respectively independent variable and response variable analytic expression, to analytic hierarchy process AHP into
Row improves, and scale is extended to rational by integer, determines performance test project T, DT, E, R of mesolow XLPE cablebAnd fortune
The index weights for tieing up information project Y, F, A, L, are denoted as wT, wDT, wE, wR respectivelyb,wY,wF,wA,wL；
6) determine assessment total score and accumulated weight factor calculation formula, wherein assessment total score is denoted as G, by pilot project scoring and
The scoring of O&M information is constituted, and the accumulated weight factor is denoted as W, by all pilot project weights made a report on and O&M information project weight
It constitutes, represents the confidence level of assessment result；
7) cable rating scale is formulated, determine expected remaining life and recommends O&M measure, according to assessment total score G, determines cable
Grading, assessment total score G is higher, and cable grading is poorer, and corresponding expected remaining life is shorter；
Step 2: cable testing project scoring to be assessed, according to the pilot project standards of grading determined in step 1, to evaluation system
In four pilot projects T, DT, E and RbIt scores, and is denoted as gT, gDT, gE, gR respectively after being normalizedb；
Step 3: cable O&M information scoring to be assessed, according to the cable O&M information grade form constructed in step 1, to assessment body
Four O&M information projects Y, F, A, L score in system, and appraisal result is denoted as gY, gF, gA, gL respectively；
Step 4: cable residual life evaluation is assessed total score G and accumulated weight factor W by calculating, and is determined according in step 1
Cable rating scale, obtain assessment cable Condition evaluation, life expectancy and the measure of the O&M of recommendation；Meanwhile with accumulative power
The size of repeated factor W represents the confidence level of assessment result；
The confidence level of assessment result is represented with the accumulated weight factor, data are more complete, and the accumulated weight factor is bigger, as a result credible
It spends higher；The length that life expectancy is represented with cable grading, gradually decreases according to the life expectancy of the sequence cable of excellent middle difference,
Identical cable of grading further determines service sequence according to the height of assessment score, and the high cable run of score should be tieed up preferentially
Shield.
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| CN111598490A (en) * | 2020-07-11 | 2020-08-28 | 西南石油大学 | Photoelectric composite submarine cable state evaluation method and system based on multi-state quantity fusion |
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| CN114660227A (en) * | 2020-12-22 | 2022-06-24 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Flame arrester fire-arresting performance evaluation method and system thereof, and electronic equipment |
| CN117767124A (en) * | 2023-11-10 | 2024-03-26 | 江苏诺金电气科技有限公司 | High-low voltage power distribution cabinet with fireproof monitoring function |
| CN118194143A (en) * | 2024-05-17 | 2024-06-14 | 国网山西省电力公司运城供电公司 | Power distribution network cable aging life prediction method, system, equipment and storage medium |
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