CN110288139A - A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term - Google Patents

A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term Download PDF

Info

Publication number
CN110288139A
CN110288139A CN201910508801.1A CN201910508801A CN110288139A CN 110288139 A CN110288139 A CN 110288139A CN 201910508801 A CN201910508801 A CN 201910508801A CN 110288139 A CN110288139 A CN 110288139A
Authority
CN
China
Prior art keywords
route
value
traveler
indicate
event
Prior art date
Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
Pending
Application number
CN201910508801.1A
Other languages
Chinese (zh)
Inventor
田晟
许凯
朱泽坤
肖佳将
Current Assignee (The listed assignees may be inaccurate. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the list.)
South China University of Technology SCUT
Original Assignee
South China University of Technology SCUT
Priority date (The priority date is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the date listed.)
Filing date
Publication date
Application filed by South China University of Technology SCUT filed Critical South China University of Technology SCUT
Priority to CN201910508801.1A priority Critical patent/CN110288139A/en
Publication of CN110288139A publication Critical patent/CN110288139A/en
Pending legal-status Critical Current

Links

Classifications

    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/15—Correlation function computation including computation of convolution operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0637—Strategic management or analysis, e.g. setting a goal or target of an organisation; Planning actions based on goals; Analysis or evaluation of effectiveness of goals
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
    • G06Q50/40—Business processes related to the transportation industry

Landscapes

  • Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
  • Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Economics (AREA)
  • Strategic Management (AREA)
  • General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
  • Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
  • Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
  • Educational Administration (AREA)
  • Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
  • General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
  • Marketing (AREA)
  • Development Economics (AREA)
  • Quality & Reliability (AREA)
  • Operations Research (AREA)
  • Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
  • Mathematical Optimization (AREA)
  • Mathematical Physics (AREA)
  • Mathematical Analysis (AREA)
  • Computational Mathematics (AREA)
  • Pure & Applied Mathematics (AREA)
  • Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
  • Algebra (AREA)
  • Computing Systems (AREA)
  • Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
  • Software Systems (AREA)
  • General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
  • Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
  • Primary Health Care (AREA)
  • Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)

Abstract

The invention discloses the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term, the following steps are included: considering the bounded rationality of passenger, using journey time, travel cost and number of transfer as the principal element of route selection under subway event in short-term, the behavior of passenger is described using prospect theory, it is assumed that the time value of traveler is homogeneity, setting time reference point Tr, admission fee reference Point C and number of transfer reference point n；It determines journey time subfunction, admission fee value subfunction and number of transfer subfunction, the editor of three subfunctions is carried out according to prospect theory, and obtain comprehensive value function according to three sub- functions；Decision weighting function is introduced, is evaluated by the prospect value that comprehensive value function and decision weighting function obtain each route, is finally established the flow stress model based on prospect value, obtain the select probability and flow value of each route.

Description

A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of traffic, and in particular to the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term.
Background technique
Rail traffic is positive by the more and more big cities in China because of the advantages that its capacity is big, speed is fast, comfort level is high Development is promoted, the stability and reliability of rail traffic operation are of great significance to the steady development of entire traffic system.But The event in short-term of rail traffic is inevitable, and analyzes the optimizing paths in way passenger in the case to effective tissue Metro passenger flow predicts subway station near zone passenger flow and carries out that the magnitude of traffic flow is discongested and control is of great significance.
Statistical appraisal and crash analysis are concentrated mainly on for the research of subway event at present.Including metro accidents occur Front and back proposes the certain precautionary measures and processing method；The tread event that may cause crowded for subway station, establishes wind Dangerous evaluation model provides guidance to reduce tread event；The fragility of Rail traffic network operation is analyzed, together When propose Improving advice etc. from different perspectives.Majority research is more from economy, safe rescue, Rail Transit System, specific event etc. A angle analyzes subway event, but the less travel behaviour under event in short-term in way passenger makes analysis, and by short When event influence passenger when changing traffic path will necessarily to the passenger organization of subway station and other modes of transportation generation shadow It rings.Therefore consider the bounded rationality of traveler, research Regional Road Network flow in short-term caused by the Route choice behavior of way passenger Changes in distribution is of great significance for traffic administration and control.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is for the rail traffic not stop over phenomenon of website caused by event in short-term, provide it is a kind of in short-term Regional Road Network method for predicting under subway event, the method will affect by considering traveler behavior in way traveler The three classes influence factor (journey time, travel cost and number of transfer) of behavioral trait accounts for, and introduces prospect theory to retouch The bounded rationality for stating traveler, the prospect value by calculating each path establish flow stress model to predict Regional Road Network stream in short-term Amount.
The purpose of the present invention can be achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term, the described method comprises the following steps:
The bounded rationality for considering passenger, using journey time, travel cost and number of transfer as road under subway event in short-term The principal element of line options describes the behavior of passenger using prospect theory, it is assumed that the time value of traveler is homogeneity, out In the trip decision-making of passerby, the destination arrival time of former route is Tr, showed after changing trip decision-making earlier than moment arrival For income, it is later than moment arrival and shows as losing, therefore TrIt is a time reference；Similarly set admission fee reference Point C and Number of transfer reference point n；
It determines journey time subfunction, admission fee value subfunction and number of transfer subfunction, carries out three according to prospect theory The editor of a subfunction, and comprehensive value function is obtained according to three sub- functions；
Decision weighting function is introduced, is evaluated by the prospect value that comprehensive value function and decision weighting function obtain each route, The flow stress model based on prospect value is finally established, the select probability and flow value of each route are obtained.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term provided by the invention, by considering traveler Bounded rationality will affect the three classes influence factor (journey time, travel cost and number of transfer) in way traveler behavior characteristic It accounts for, introduces prospect theory to describe the bounded rationality of traveler, the prospect value by calculating each path is established flow and added Model is carried to predict Regional Road Network flow in short-term, has studied caused by the Route choice behavior of way passenger Regional Road Network stream in short-term Changes in distribution is measured, is of great significance for traffic administration and control.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the schematic diagram of time reference and beneficial damage relationship in the embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the Regional Road Network method for predicting flow diagram under the embodiment of the present invention in short-term subway event.
Specific embodiment
Present invention will now be described in further detail with reference to the embodiments and the accompanying drawings, but embodiments of the present invention are unlimited In this.
Embodiment:
The Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term is present embodiments provided, the method will go on a journey Person classifies according to its behavior, and three classes influence factor is accounted for, and introduces prospect theory to describe the limited of traveler Rationality, the prospect value by calculating each path establish flow stress model to predict Regional Road Network flow in short-term.Process such as Fig. 2 institute Show, comprising the following steps:
The bounded rationality for considering passenger, using journey time, travel cost and number of transfer as road under subway event in short-term The principal element of line options describes the behavior of passenger using prospect theory, it is assumed that the time value of traveler is homogeneity, such as Shown in Fig. 1, in the trip decision-making of traveler, the destination arrival time of former route is Tr, change trip decision-making after earlier than this when It is carved into up to income is shown as, above abscissa, is later than moment arrival and shows as losing, below abscissa, therefore Tr It is a time reference；Similarly set admission fee reference Point C and number of transfer reference point n；
It determines journey time subfunction, admission fee value subfunction and number of transfer subfunction, carries out three according to prospect theory The editor of a subfunction, and comprehensive value function is obtained according to three sub- functions；Wherein, the journey time subfunction It is as follows:
Admission fee is worth subfunctionIt is as follows:
Number of transfer subfunctionIt is as follows:
In formula,Indicate traveler i route k travel time,When indicating the arrival of the traveler i of selection route k It carves,Indicate setting out the moment for the traveler i of selection route k,Indicate that the admission fee of the traveler i of selection route k is spent, Indicate the admission fee reference point of the traveler i of selection route k,Indicate that the number of transfer of the traveler i of selection route k, n indicate Number of transfer reference point is usually no more than 2 times for traveler；λyIndicate income preference or loss aversion coefficient, wherein Y ∈ (1,2,3 ... 6), when y=1,4,6, λy> 0, when y=2,3,5, λy<0；γ1、γ2、……γ6Indicate risk system Number；
The comprehensive value functionIt is as follows:
Wherein,Indicate the income of the traveler i of selection route k；In formula It respectively indicates and three classes subfunction is normalized Processing, α, β, γ respectively indicate the weight of each subfunction；
Decision weighting function is introduced, is evaluated by the prospect value that comprehensive value function and decision weighting function obtain each route, The flow stress model based on prospect value is finally established, the select probability and flow value of each route are obtained；Wherein, the decision-making power Weight function W (Pj) it is as follows:
W(Pj)=exp {-(- lnPj)θ, j=1,2
PjIndicate the probability that happens, due to when event occurs in short-term, under routing decision admission fee and number of transfer be can The probability P known, therefore happenedjDepending on the travel time of route, i.e., it is early to and two kinds of situations of being late, and traveler for The understanding of each probability has subjectivity, by the way that objective probability subjectivity is obtained decision weighting function W (Pj)；θ be value (0, 1] parameter between；
The prospect value for obtaining each route by comprehensive value function and decision weighting function is evaluated, and formula is as follows:
Wherein,Indicate the probability of traveler i selection route k, route prospect value is by early to common to two kinds of situations with evening Composition, traveler make routing decision accordingly；
Based on the prospect value of each route, the volume of the flow of passengers is loaded, route is indicated using Logit flow stress model Select probability PrkAnd calculate each route flow qk, in which:
qk=QPrk
In formula, SPkIndicate the probability of traveler selection route k, total flow between Q indicates OD pairs, qkIndicate the stream of route k Magnitude always has
The above, only the invention patent preferred embodiment, but the scope of protection of the patent of the present invention is not limited to This, anyone skilled in the art is in the range disclosed in the invention patent, according to the present invention the skill of patent Art scheme and its patent of invention design are subject to equivalent substitution or change, belong to the scope of protection of the patent of the present invention.

Claims (6)

1. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term, which is characterized in that the method includes following steps It is rapid:
The bounded rationality for considering passenger, is selected journey time, travel cost and number of transfer as route under subway event in short-term The principal element selected describes the behavior of passenger using prospect theory, it is assumed that the time value of traveler is homogeneity, traveler Trip decision-making in, destination arrival time of former route is Tr, show as receiving earlier than moment arrival after changing trip decision-making Benefit is later than moment arrival and shows as losing, therefore TrIt is a time reference；Similarly set admission fee reference Point C and transfer Number reference point n；
It determines journey time subfunction, admission fee value subfunction and number of transfer subfunction, three sons is carried out according to prospect theory The editor of function, and comprehensive value function is obtained according to three sub- functions；
Decision weighting function is introduced, is evaluated by the prospect value that comprehensive value function and decision weighting function obtain each route, finally The flow stress model based on prospect value is established, the select probability and flow value of each route are obtained.
2. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term according to claim 1, which is characterized in that The journey time subfunctionIt is as follows:
Admission fee is worth subfunctionIt is as follows:
Number of transfer subfunctionIt is as follows:
Wherein, μk iIndicate travel time of the traveler i in route k, Tr iIndicate the arrival time of the traveler i of selection route k, Ts iIndicate setting out the moment for the traveler i of selection route k, fk iIndicate that the admission fee of the traveler i of selection route k is spent, Ck iIt indicates Select the admission fee reference point of the traveler i of route k, mk iIndicate that the number of transfer of the traveler i of selection route k, n indicate transfer time Number reference point, λyIndicate income preference or loss aversion coefficient, wherein (1,2,3 ... 6) y ∈, when y=1,4,6, λy> 0, when When y=2,3,5, λy<0；γ1、γ2、……γ6Indicate risk factor.
3. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term according to claim 2, which is characterized in that The comprehensive value functionIt is as follows:
Wherein, Gk iIndicate the income of the traveler i of selection route k；In formula It respectively indicates and three classes subfunction is normalized Processing, α, β, γ respectively indicate the weight of each subfunction.
4. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term according to claim 3, which is characterized in that Decision weighting function W (the Pj) it is as follows:
W(Pj)=exp {-(- lnPj)θ, j=1,2
Wherein, PjIndicate the probability that happens, due to when event occurs in short-term, under routing decision admission fee and number of transfer be can The probability P known, therefore happenedjDepending on the travel time of route, i.e., it is early to and two kinds of situations of being late, and traveler for The understanding of each probability has subjectivity, by the way that objective probability subjectivity is obtained decision weighting function W (Pj)；θ be value (0, 1] parameter between.
5. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term according to claim 4, which is characterized in that The prospect value for obtaining each route by comprehensive value function and decision weighting function is evaluated, and formula is as follows:
Wherein, SPk iIndicate the probability of traveler i selection route k, route prospect value by it is early to and it is late to two kinds common group of situation At traveler makes routing decision accordingly.
6. the Regional Road Network method for predicting under a kind of subway event in short-term according to claim 5, it is characterised in that: Based on the prospect value of each route, the volume of the flow of passengers is loaded, indicates that the selection of route is general using Logit flow stress model Rate PrkAnd calculate each route flow qk, in which:
qk=QPrk
In formula, SPkIndicate the probability of traveler selection route k, total flow between Q indicates OD pairs, qkIndicate the flow value of route k, Always have
CN201910508801.1A 2019-06-13 2019-06-13 A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term Pending CN110288139A (en)

Priority Applications (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201910508801.1A CN110288139A (en) 2019-06-13 2019-06-13 A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term

Applications Claiming Priority (1)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
CN201910508801.1A CN110288139A (en) 2019-06-13 2019-06-13 A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term

Publications (1)

Publication Number Publication Date
CN110288139A true CN110288139A (en) 2019-09-27

Family

ID=68004746

Family Applications (1)

Application Number Title Priority Date Filing Date
CN201910508801.1A Pending CN110288139A (en) 2019-06-13 2019-06-13 A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term

Country Status (1)

Country Link
CN (1) CN110288139A (en)

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN112070372A (en) * 2020-08-25 2020-12-11 长沙理工大学 Bus passenger flow distribution method, system and storage medium based on interval uncertainty

Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20180122228A1 (en) * 2015-06-16 2018-05-03 Dataspark Pte, Ltd. Traffic Prediction and Real Time Analysis System
CN107992786A (en) * 2016-10-27 2018-05-04 中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所 A kind of people streams in public places amount statistical method and system based on face
CN108416172A (en) * 2018-04-11 2018-08-17 华南理工大学 A kind of Urban Public Transportation Network design method based on CPT

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20180122228A1 (en) * 2015-06-16 2018-05-03 Dataspark Pte, Ltd. Traffic Prediction and Real Time Analysis System
CN107992786A (en) * 2016-10-27 2018-05-04 中国科学院沈阳自动化研究所 A kind of people streams in public places amount statistical method and system based on face
CN108416172A (en) * 2018-04-11 2018-08-17 华南理工大学 A kind of Urban Public Transportation Network design method based on CPT

Non-Patent Citations (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Title
许凯，田晟，朱泽坤: "短时事件下的地铁乘客路径选择行为研究", 《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》 *

Cited By (1)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN112070372A (en) * 2020-08-25 2020-12-11 长沙理工大学 Bus passenger flow distribution method, system and storage medium based on interval uncertainty

Similar Documents

Publication Publication Date Title
CN102184640B (en) Method for automatically determining rescue path of expressway network
CN107194497B (en) Method for planning travel path of urban rail transit passenger in emergency
Campos et al. Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world
CN104217129B (en) A kind of urban rail road network passenger flow evaluation method
CN104239484B (en) One kind is based on table preparation method at the time of multi-mode public transport combined schedule
CN109543934B (en) Method for evaluating comprehensive index of urban public transport network
CN108364127B (en) Road network passenger flow cooperative control optimization system
CN112990648B (en) Rail transit network operation stability assessment method
CN112949078B (en) Matching degree calculation method for urban rail transit passenger flow and traffic flow
CN106484966B (en) A kind of urban track traffic emergency event dynamic effects range and strength determining method
CN108536965B (en) Urban rail transit line operation service reliability calculation method
CN103714257B (en) A kind of public transport problem identification of lines technology
CN112085641B (en) High-speed railway passenger flow distribution method based on train operation scheme
Vuchic Rapid transit interstation spacings for maximum number of passengers
CN106327867B (en) Bus punctuation prediction method based on GPS data
CN108364093B (en) Road network passenger flow cooperative control optimization method based on capacity bottleneck untwining strategy
CN103646374B (en) A kind of routine bus system running comfort index calculation method
CN109872047B (en) Bus trip scheme recommendation method considering pedestrian congestion degree perception
CN110288139A (en) A kind of Regional Road Network method for predicting under the event of subway in short-term
CN113408926B (en) Urban rail transit passenger flow distribution method under short interruption condition
WO2015145900A1 (en) Service management device, train control method, and program
Wan et al. Optimization of security check efficiency in subway station based on Anylogic: A case study of Nanchang Metro
CN106067078A (en) Bus berth distribution optimization method for double platforms
Cui et al. Study on the selection model of staying adjustment bus lines along rail transit
CN111325649B (en) Urban rail transit combined station stopping method

Legal Events

Date Code Title Description
PB01 Publication
PB01 Publication
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
SE01 Entry into force of request for substantive examination
RJ01 Rejection of invention patent application after publication
RJ01 Rejection of invention patent application after publication

Application publication date: 20190927