CN110274656B - Urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method - Google Patents
Urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
Hair brushA method for forecasting and early warning the water level of city inland river includes such steps as counting the distribution of water-logging points in city history, and setting the water-logging points as { M }1，M2，…,Mn}; according to the topological structure of the regional pipe network, finding an outlet of the rainwater pipe network for discharging accumulated water at a waterlogging-prone point to an inland river, and arranging an alert section at the position of the outlet; then, based on the design method of the urban rainwater pipe network and the urban drainage physical law, calculating the warning water levels of different warning sections by a warning water level calculation method, wherein the river water level is used as an early warning critical condition of urban waterlogging disasters; determining a water level unit line of the warning section; calculating a warning section water level process based on the rainfall forecast and a warning section water level unit line in the real-time forecast early warning process, wherein the warning section water level process is used as a water level forecast result in the corresponding rainfall process; when the forecasted or actually measured water level of the warning section reaches the warning water level, the moment is the warning moment of the inland river water level. The invention provides a calculation method of warning water level for the waterlogging early warning scheme, and the urban waterlogging disaster loss is effectively reduced.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of urban inland inundation prevention and treatment, in particular to an urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method.
Background
In recent years, under the influence of global climate change, extreme weather such as rainstorm, extra heavy rainstorm and the like frequently occurs, in addition, the construction of infrastructure such as increasing of urban watertight area, drainage, waterlogging prevention and the like is delayed, and urban waterlogging becomes one of the most serious disasters affecting the normal production and life of cities. The urban waterlogging forecasting and early warning system is scientific and reasonable, can forecast urban waterlogging situation space-time change in advance, is beneficial to a decision-making department to quickly, timely and efficiently make emergency response, prevents urban waterlogging disasters or enlarges the influence range, reduces economic loss caused by the waterlogging disasters, and is a key problem to be solved urgently in current urban waterlogging prevention and treatment work.
At present, most urban inland inundation forecasting and early warning technologies are provided based on the construction of urban hydraulic models, and two problems exist, on one hand, because most cities do not establish perfect hydrological monitoring systems, historical hydrological actual measurement data are deficient, especially, urban river flow real-time monitoring technologies are not mature, and river flow data are almost not available. And the calculation accuracy of the urban hydraulic model needs a large amount of hydrological data, particularly flow data, for verification, and the lack of the data is difficult to support the accuracy of the model calculation result, so that the method is difficult to be applied to practice. On the other hand, as the urban hydraulic model needs to be coupled with a rainwater pipe network, a two-dimensional terrain, an inland river system and other multiple elements, on the premise of ensuring certain precision, the calculation speed is slow, the urban product confluence area is small, the impermeability is high, the product confluence speed is extremely high, and the model calculation speed cannot meet the requirement of the response speed of a decision department on the forecast period easily.
In view of the fact that urban water level monitoring data are more complete than data such as flow and flow velocity, an urban inland river water level forecasting method which does not depend on a physical model, is fast in calculation and accurate in result is researched based on urban inland river water level actual measurement data, on the basis, the inland river water level is provided as a control condition to carry out early warning on urban inland inundation conditions, and the urban inland inundation water level forecasting method is a research key point of urban inland inundation prevention and control work.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method for forecasting and early warning urban inland river water level, which can be used for real-time early warning based on measured water level, and can also be used for forecasting and early warning, so as to effectively reduce urban inland inundation disaster loss.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme: a city inland river water level forecasting and early warning method comprises the following steps:
step S1: counting the distribution of urban historical waterlogging-prone points, and setting the waterlogging-prone point set as { M }1，M2，…,Mn}；
Step S2: according to the topological structure of the regional pipe network, finding an outlet of the rainwater pipe network for discharging accumulated water at the waterlogging-prone point to the inland river, and arranging an alert section at the position of the outlet;
step S3: based on an urban rainwater pipe network design method and an urban drainage physical law, calculating the warning water levels of different warning sections by a warning water level calculation method, and taking the river water level as an early warning critical condition of urban waterlogging disasters;
step S4: determining a water level unit line of the warning section based on the multi-field historical measured rainfall data and the measured water level data of the warning section;
step S5: in the real-time forecasting and early warning process, calculating the water level of the warning section based on the rainfall forecast and the water level unit line of the warning section as the water level forecasting result in the corresponding rainfall process; when the forecasted or actually measured warning section water level reaches the warning section water level, the moment is the inland river water level warning moment.
Further, the step S2 specifically includes the following steps:
step S21: collecting pipe network basic data, topographic data and inland river water system distribution map in the urban research range; the pipe network basic data comprise pipe section start and stop point coordinates, elevations and topological structures;
step S22: according to the topological structure of the pipe network, rainwater drainage outlets of different waterlogging-prone point areas are found respectively, namely rainwater in the waterlogging-prone point areas is drained to a terminal rainwater drainage outlet of the inland river, and waterlogging-prone points { M }1，M2，…,MnThe corresponding rain water discharge outlet is { C }1,C2,…,CnLet the river water level warning section set at the exit be { D }1,D2,…,Dn}。
Further, the step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: acquiring basic information of a rainwater pipe network for removing rainwater in each waterlogging-prone point area; the basic information of the rainwater pipe network comprises the number of rainwater pipes, the length of the pipe network, the gradient of the pipe, the position of a rainwater discharge port and a river channel discharged by the rainwater discharge port;
step S32: calculating the inland river water level h when the drainage capacity of the rainwater pipe network for removing each waterlogging-prone point is influenced by the inland river water level jacking effect1、h2...hiAnd is used as the warning water level of the corresponding waterlogging warning section;
in the formula, LijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe length of the j-th section of pipeline of the rainwater pipe network; sijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe j-th section of the rainwater pipe network is sloped.
Further, the step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
step S41: setting the warning section as M, acquiring regional terrain topography and pipe network basic information, and dividing a water collection region N of the M section according to the regional terrain topography and a pipe network topological structure;
step S42: acquiring areas of different land utilization types in the water collecting area N, determining comprehensive runoff coefficients of the different land utilization types according to outdoor drainage design specifications and urban product convergence characteristics, and calculating a clean rain process according to the formula (2);
wherein p (t) is the net rainfall in the period of t; p (t) is the rainfall in the time period t obtained by weather forecast; ΨiA runoff coefficient of the ith land utilization type in the region N; fiThe area of the ith land utilization type in the area N; n is the total number of land utilization types;
step S43: providing historical rainfall data and actually measured water level data with the warning calculation section being M, and constructing a target function with the formula (3) of calculating a water level unit line with the warning calculation section being M; solving the water level unit line of the section M by using an extreme method and combining computer language JAVA programming;
in the formula, H (t) is the measured water level at the moment t; h' (t) is a water level value calculated by using a water level unit line at the time t; t is the calculated total duration of the water level process; h (i) is the value of the ith time interval in the water level unit line; α (t) is a weight coefficient;
step S44: and repeating the steps S41-S43, and calculating the water level unit lines of all the warning sections in the urban area.
Further, the step S5 specifically includes the following steps:
step S51: in the real-time forecasting process, a forecasting result of the rainfall process is obtained, and the net rainfall process in the rainfall process is calculated according to the formula (2);
step S52: and calculating the water level processes of different warning sections in the rainfall process according to the formula (4) to serve as a water level forecasting result.
Further, the specific content of the step S43 of solving the water level unit line of the section M by using an extreme method and combining with the computer language JAVA programming is as follows:
the method for solving and calculating the water level unit line of the section M by using the extreme value method comprises the following steps:
in order to ensure that the water-soluble organic acid,
according to the extreme principle, to minimize λ, its partial derivative must be made
Then there are:
and (3) solving the equation set of the formula (5) by using a JAVA programming of a computer language to obtain a water level unit line of the section M.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) compared with the traditional forecasting based on the urban hydraulic model, the method disclosed by the invention has the advantages that the computation speed is greatly improved, more decision response time is won for the conventional flood prevention dispatching and emergency dispatching in the urban area, and the urban inland inundation disaster loss is effectively reduced.
(2) The inland river water level-based inland inundation early warning method is provided based on the starting angle of solving the problem that urban inland inundation is prone to waterlogging and is not only used for real-time early warning based on actually measured water level, but also used for forecasting and early warning, and the blank of the related field of urban inland inundation early warning technology is made up.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating the calculation of inland river control water level according to the embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is further explained below with reference to the drawings and the embodiments.
The embodiment provides an urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method, which comprises the following steps:
step S1: counting the distribution of urban historical waterlogging-prone points, and setting the waterlogging-prone point set as { M }1，M2，…,Mn}；
Step S2: according to the topological structure of the regional pipe network, finding an outlet of the rainwater pipe network for discharging accumulated water at the waterlogging-prone point to the inland river, and arranging an alert section at the position of the outlet;
step S3: based on an urban rainwater pipe network design method and an urban drainage physical law, calculating the warning water levels of different warning sections by a warning water level calculation method, and taking the river water level as an early warning critical condition of urban waterlogging disasters;
step S4: determining a water level unit line of the warning section based on the multi-field historical measured rainfall data and the measured water level data of the warning section;
step S5: in the real-time forecasting and early warning process, calculating the water level of the warning section based on the rainfall forecast and the water level unit line of the warning section as the water level forecasting result in the corresponding rainfall process; when the forecasted or actually measured warning section water level reaches the warning section water level, the moment is the inland river water level warning moment.
In this embodiment, the step S2 specifically includes the following steps:
step S21: collecting pipe network basic data, topographic data and inland river water system distribution map in the urban research range; the pipe network basic data comprise pipe section start and stop point coordinates, elevations and topological structures;
step S22: according to the topological structure of the pipe network, rainwater discharge outlets of different waterlogging-prone point areas are found respectively, namely rainwater in the waterlogging-prone point areas is discharged to the end of the inland riverEnd the rainwater drainage port to ensure that the waterlogging is easy to occur { M1，M2，…,MnThe corresponding rain water discharge outlet is { C }1,C2,…,CnLet the river water level warning section set at the exit be { D }1,D2,…,Dn}。
In this embodiment, the step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: acquiring basic information of a rainwater pipe network for removing rainwater in each waterlogging-prone point area; the basic information of the rainwater pipe network comprises the number of rainwater pipes, the length of the pipe network, the gradient of the pipe, the position of a rainwater discharge port and a river channel discharged by the rainwater discharge port;
step S32: calculating the inland river water level h when the drainage capacity of the rainwater pipe network for removing each waterlogging-prone point is influenced by the inland river water level jacking effect1、h2...hiAnd is used as the warning water level of the corresponding waterlogging warning section;
in the formula, LijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe length of the j-th section of pipeline of the rainwater pipe network; sijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe j-th section of the rainwater pipe network is sloped.
In this embodiment, the step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
step S41: setting the warning section as M, acquiring regional terrain topography and pipe network basic information, and dividing a water collection region N of the M section according to the regional terrain topography and a pipe network topological structure;
step S42: acquiring areas of different land utilization types in the water collecting area N, determining comprehensive runoff coefficients of the different land utilization types according to outdoor drainage design specifications and urban product convergence characteristics, and calculating a clean rain process according to the formula (2);
wherein p (t) is the net rainfall in the period of t; p (t) is the rainfall in the time period t obtained by weather forecast; ΨiA runoff coefficient of the ith land utilization type in the region N; fiThe area of the ith land utilization type in the area N; n is the total number of land utilization types;
step S43: providing historical rainfall data and actually measured water level data with the warning calculation section being M, and constructing a target function with the formula (3) of calculating a water level unit line with the warning calculation section being M; solving the water level unit line of the section M by using an extreme method and combining computer language JAVA programming;
in the formula, H (t) is the measured water level at the moment t; h' (t) is a water level value calculated by using a water level unit line at the time t; t is the calculated total duration of the water level process; h (i) is the value of the ith time interval in the water level unit line; α (t) is a weight coefficient;
step S44: and repeating the steps S41-S43, and calculating the water level unit lines of all the warning sections in the urban area.
In this embodiment, the step S5 specifically includes the following steps:
step S51: in the real-time forecasting process, a forecasting result of the rainfall process is obtained, and the net rainfall process in the rainfall process is calculated according to the formula (2);
step S52: and calculating the water level processes of different warning sections in the rainfall process according to the formula (4) to serve as a water level forecasting result.
In this embodiment, the specific content of the step S43 of solving the water level unit line of the section M by using an extreme method and combining with the JAVA programming of the computer language is as follows:
the method for solving and calculating the water level unit line of the section M by using the extreme value method comprises the following steps:
in order to ensure that the water-soluble organic acid,
according to the extreme principle, to minimize λ, its partial derivative must be made
Then there are:
and (3) solving the equation set of the formula (5) by using a JAVA programming of a computer language to obtain a water level unit line of the section M.
Preferably, the urban inland river water level early warning can be carried out in real time according to urban real-time monitoring water level data, and can also be carried out forecasting and early warning according to urban inland river water level forecasting results. The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and all equivalent changes and modifications made in accordance with the claims of the present invention should be covered by the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A city inland river water level forecasting and early warning method is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step S1: counting the distribution of urban historical waterlogging-prone points, and setting the waterlogging-prone point set as { M }1，M2，…,Mn}；
Step S2: according to the topological structure of the regional pipe network, finding an outlet of the rainwater pipe network for discharging accumulated water at the waterlogging-prone point to the inland river, and arranging an alert section at the position of the outlet;
step S3: based on an urban rainwater pipe network design method and an urban drainage physical law, calculating the warning water levels of different warning sections by a warning water level calculation method, and taking the river water level as an early warning critical condition of urban waterlogging disasters;
step S4: determining a water level unit line of the warning section based on the multi-field historical measured rainfall data and the measured water level data of the warning section;
step S5: in the real-time forecasting and early warning process, calculating the water level of the warning section based on the rainfall forecast and the water level unit line of the warning section as the water level forecasting result in the corresponding rainfall process; when the forecasted or actually measured warning section water level reaches the warning section water level, the moment is the inland river water level warning moment.
2. The urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps: the step S2 specifically includes the following steps:
step S21: collecting pipe network basic data, topographic data and inland river water system distribution map in the urban research range; the pipe network basic data comprise pipe section start and stop point coordinates, elevations and topological structures;
step S22: according to the topological structure of the pipe network, rainwater drainage outlets of different waterlogging-prone point areas are found respectively, namely rainwater in the waterlogging-prone point areas is drained to a terminal rainwater drainage outlet of the inland river, and waterlogging-prone points { M }1，M2，…,MnThe corresponding rain water discharge outlet is { C }1,C2,…,CnLet the river water level warning section set at the exit be { D }1,D2,…,Dn}。
3. The urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps: the step S3 specifically includes the following steps:
step S31: acquiring basic information of a rainwater pipe network for removing rainwater in each waterlogging-prone point area; the basic information of the rainwater pipe network comprises the number of rainwater pipes, the length of the pipe network, the gradient of the pipe, the position of a rainwater discharge port and a river channel discharged by the rainwater discharge port;
step S32: calculating the inland river water level h when the drainage capacity of the rainwater pipe network for removing each waterlogging-prone point is influenced by the inland river water level jacking effect1、h2...hiAnd is used as the warning water level of the corresponding waterlogging warning section;
in the formula, LijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe length of the j-th section of pipeline of the rainwater pipe network; sijIs a waterlogging-prone point MiThe j-th section of the rainwater pipe network is sloped.
4. The urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the following steps: the step S4 specifically includes the following steps:
step S41: setting the warning section as M, acquiring regional terrain topography and pipe network basic information, and dividing a water collection region N of the M section according to the regional terrain topography and a pipe network topological structure;
step S42: acquiring areas of different land utilization types in the water collecting area N, determining comprehensive runoff coefficients of the different land utilization types according to outdoor drainage design specifications and urban product convergence characteristics, and calculating net rainfall according to a formula (2);
wherein p (t) is the net rainfall in the period of t; p (t) is the rainfall in the time period t obtained by weather forecast; ΨiA runoff coefficient of the ith land utilization type in the region N; fiThe area of the ith land utilization type in the area N; n is the total number of land utilization types;
step S43: providing historical rainfall data and the actually measured water level data with the warning section being M, and constructing a formula (3) for calculating an objective function of a water level unit line with the warning calculation section being M; solving the water level unit line of the section M by using an extreme method and combining computer language JAVA programming;
in the formula, H (t) is the measured water level at the moment t; h' (t) is a water level value calculated by using a water level unit line at the time t; t is the calculated total duration of the water level process; h (i) is the value of the ith time interval in the water level unit line; α (t) is a weight coefficient;
step S44: and repeating the steps S41-S43, and calculating the water level unit lines of all the warning sections in the urban area.
5. The urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the step S5 specifically includes the following steps:
step S51: in the real-time forecasting process, a forecasting result of the rainfall process is obtained, and the net rainfall process in the rainfall process is calculated according to the formula (2);
step S52: and (4) calculating water level values of different warning sections in the rainfall process according to the formula (4) to serve as a water level forecasting result.
6. The urban inland river water level forecasting and early warning method according to claim 4, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the concrete contents of the step S43 of solving the water level unit line of the section M by using the extreme method and combining the computer language JAVA programming are as follows:
the method for solving and calculating the water level unit line of the section M by using the extreme value method comprises the following steps:
in order to ensure that the water-soluble organic acid,
according to the extreme principle, to minimize λ, its partial derivative must be made
Then there are:
and (3) solving the equation set of the formula (5) by using a JAVA programming of a computer language to obtain a water level unit line of the section M.
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| CN111639803A (en) * | 2020-05-29 | 2020-09-08 | 福州市规划设计研究院 | Prediction method applied to future vegetation index of area under climate change scene |
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| CN113762618B (en) * | 2021-09-07 | 2022-03-01 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Lake water level forecasting method based on multi-factor similarity analysis |
| CN114463946A (en) * | 2022-01-11 | 2022-05-10 | 探路者(上海)数字技术有限公司 | Intelligent flood early warning system and method |
| CN114723251A (en) * | 2022-03-24 | 2022-07-08 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Underground water level warning line defining method and system |
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