CN110160435B - Landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and method - Google Patents

Landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and method Download PDF

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CN110160435B
CN110160435B CN201910362587.3A CN201910362587A CN110160435B CN 110160435 B CN110160435 B CN 110160435B CN 201910362587 A CN201910362587 A CN 201910362587A CN 110160435 B CN110160435 B CN 110160435B
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贺可强
张兰阁
田野
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Qingdao University of Technology
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Abstract

The invention relates to a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction method, and belongs to the technical field of landslide early warning. The method comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps: exploring and measuring parameters of basic physical mechanics of the landslide fracture body; step two: arranging monitoring equipment and processing monitoring data; step three: determining the water content and the gravity of the soil strips under different depth conditions; step four: determining the power and power load-increasing parameters of the side slope rainfall infiltration gliding; step five: determining the displacement of the rainfall infiltration weight-increasing dynamic effect of the side slope; step six: determining power load-increasing and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of the slope water content; step seven: evaluating landslide stability and monitoring and early warning; the invention has the beneficial effects that: monitoring and measuring the change and evolution trend of the dynamic slope stability coefficient under the condition of continuous rainfall, determining a landslide dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio coupling prediction parameter and an evaluation model, preliminarily judging the stability of the landslide, and predicting and forecasting.

Description

Landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and method
Technical Field
The invention relates to a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction method, and belongs to the technical field of landslide early warning.
Background
Landslide is the second geological disaster next to earthquake disaster, with economic losses due to landslide disasters reaching hundreds of billions of dollars and serious casualties worldwide every year. Nearly 70% of China's territory is mountainous, landslide disasters are widely and frequently occurring, and the lives and properties of the people are seriously threatened, wherein rainfall is one of the main influence factors generated by landslide, so that research on rainfall type landslide and effective disaster prevention and reduction measures are particularly urgent.
At present, the prediction and evaluation method of rainfall type landslide mainly focuses on two big directions: the method comprises the steps of firstly, based on a time sequence statistical prediction model of displacement monitoring, namely based on the observation of displacement, atmospheric rainfall and underground water level, researching rainfall capacity, rainfall intensity, underground water, landslide displacement and instability time sequence corresponding relation, and establishing the time sequence statistical prediction model of landslide displacement, rainfall and underground water so as to achieve the purpose of prediction. However, the evaluated parameters are only the change rule of displacement or displacement rate in the landslide evolution process, and only the deformation change rule of the side slope can be reflected and described, but the forming mechanism and the mechanical cause of side slope deformation and instability cannot be disclosed, and the prediction evaluation result is easily influenced and has strong uncertainty due to more assumed conditions and limiting conditions of modeling. And secondly, on the basis of a saturated-unsaturated seepage theory, a finite element analysis method considering the residual strength is used for completing the stability analysis and evaluation of the slope by performing element division on the slope body of the slope and continuously adjusting the cohesive force and the internal friction angle of rock and soil body materials according to certain reduction parameters. The method does not need to make any assumed sliding surface, can visually reflect the actual sliding surface of the slope body through analysis, but the reduction of the strength parameter is non-proportional, so that a finite element strength reduction formula cannot be accurately established, and different yield criteria are adopted to ensure that the analysis result is different from the actual result. The monitoring and early warning method rarely relates to the influence of the weight gain effect caused by the increase of the water content of the slope body on the stability of the slope in the rainfall infiltration process, so that the time of landslide disaster occurrence cannot be accurately judged and predicted.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction parameter and a landslide water content load-increasing response ratio prediction method.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a landslide water ratio load-carrying response ratio prediction parameter and a method are characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: exploring and measuring parameters of basic physical mechanics of a landslide body;
step two: arranging monitoring equipment and processing monitoring data;
step three: determining the water content and the gravity of the soil strips under different depth conditions;
step four: determining the power and power load-increasing parameters of the side slope rainfall infiltration gliding;
step five: determining the displacement of the rainfall infiltration weight-increasing dynamic effect of the side slope;
step six: determining power load-increasing and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of the slope water content;
step seven: evaluating landslide stability and monitoring and early warning;
the parameter in the first step comprises a slip surface inclination angle thetaiI th soilAverage height h of the barsiDry and severe soil layer gamma of side slopedInitial modulus of elasticity E0The soil strips are divided into equal-width vertical strips from the high-angle rear edge of the slope slip surface to the low-angle front edge of the slip surface.
The monitoring equipment in the second step comprises a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device and a Delta-T type moisture meter, and the monitoring data comprises landslide displacement data and slope body moisture content data; when acquiring monitoring data, firstly determining a monitoring time interval unit, hour or day of the landslide according to the time length of a rainfall event and the displacement and stability conditions of the landslide, and adopting a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device and a Delta-T type moisture meter to monitor the displacement of the landslide and the moisture content of the slope body in real time at the determined time interval so as to respectively determine a time sequence of the displacement of the slope
Figure GDA0002933742130000021
Time series w of water content of Hepot(0)k(t ═ 1, 2 … … n, where t is the monitoring time), the specific monitoring steps are as follows:
the method comprises the following steps: monitoring of landslide displacement
Arranging n displacement monitoring points at different strip positions of a slope body, selecting at least three reference points in stable bedrock or deformation-free areas outside a landslide body to be monitored, then installing a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device, transmitting the monitoring data to a remote monitoring terminal through a side slope field data signal collector for classification pretreatment, and further carrying out pretreatment to obtain an average value of displacement changes of the n displacement monitoring points
Figure GDA0002933742130000035
The Excel table is recorded in detail,
Figure GDA0002933742130000031
wherein: stiThe displacement value of the ith displacement monitoring point at the time t;
step two: monitoring of water content of slope
Arranging a water content sensor on the surface layer of each soil strip, then respectively arranging a Delta-T type moisture meter at the middle part and the bottom of the first soil strip and the m soil strip, and respectively recording slope water content monitoring data, wherein l and m refer to the soil strip with the highest height and the soil strip with the lowest height.
When the water content of the soil strips under different depth conditions is determined, the water content of the first and m soil strips conforms to the exponential function relation curve of the formula (2) along with the depth evolution rule of the slope body, namely:
Figure GDA0002933742130000032
in the formula: w is at(0)kIs the water content of the surface layer of the soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000033
is depth at x (x)>0) The water content of the soil strips at the rice positions, a and b are calculation constants and are calculated by
Figure GDA0002933742130000034
al、blAnd am、bmCan be obtained by the following formula,
Figure GDA0002933742130000041
determining the soil strip gravity under different depth conditions:
determining the soil strip weight according to the formula (3) as follows:
γ＝γd(1+w) (3)
the evolution law of the water content of each soil strip is the same, so that the change curve of the i-th soil strip gravity along with the depth of the soil strip is determined by the formulas (2) and (3):
Figure GDA0002933742130000042
in the formula: gamma raydThe dryness and the gravity of the slope body are shown, and w is the theoretical water content of the soil strips; x is the number ofiIs the ith soilThe average width of the strip; x is the number ofkThe average width of the kth soil strip is; the above-mentioned
Figure GDA0002933742130000043
The surface water content of the ith soil strip at the time t is shown.
Determining the slope rainfall infiltration gliding power obtains the gliding force G 'of the ith soil strip in the rainfall infiltration process through a formula (5)'ti；
Figure GDA0002933742130000044
Calculating the average gliding force of n soil strips in the rainfall infiltration process according to a formula (6)
Figure GDA0002933742130000045
Figure GDA0002933742130000051
In the formula: gamma raydThe degree of dryness is dry and severe; thetaiThe tangential dip angle (DEG) of the sliding surface at the midpoint of the ith soil strip is shown; h isiIs the height (m) of the ith soil strip; x is the horizontal width (m) of the soil strip; h is the average height (m) of the n soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000052
Figure GDA0002933742130000053
is the average surface layer water content of the n soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000054
wherein, the average gliding force G of n soil strips corresponding to the monitoring time ttAnd defining the water content dynamic load-increasing parameter as the slope.
And fifthly, when determining the dynamic effect displacement of the rainfall infiltration weight gain of the side slope, weakening the elastic modulus E after t timetAnd initial modulus of elasticity E0The ratio is defined as the displacement reduction factor taut
Figure GDA0002933742130000055
In the formula:
Figure GDA0002933742130000056
Etin order to achieve a weakened modulus of elasticity,
Figure GDA0002933742130000057
the average water content of the first and m soil strips at the time t is shown;
determining weight gain dynamic effect displacement quantity delta S under the condition of rainfall infiltration according to formulas (1) and (7)t：
Figure GDA0002933742130000058
And sixthly, when determining the dynamic load increase and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of the water content of the side slope, the initial monitoring time t of the side slope1Corresponding slope water content power increasing amount
Figure GDA0002933742130000059
Initial displacement response value deltaS corresponding to the displacement0The ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the response rate lambda of the dynamic load-increasing displacement of the initial water content of the side slope0
Figure GDA0002933742130000061
Increasing the dynamic capacity of the water content at any time t
Figure GDA00029337421300000610
Corresponding dynamic displacement response Delta StThe ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the water content power load displacement response rate lambda at any time tt
Figure GDA0002933742130000062
The water content power load-increasing displacement response rate lambda of any time ttAnd its initial time t1Dynamic load-increasing displacement response rate lambda0The ratio is defined as the slope water ratio dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio etatNamely:
Figure GDA0002933742130000063
in the formula:
Figure GDA0002933742130000064
Figure GDA0002933742130000065
is the average height (m) of n soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000066
the average surface water content of n soil strips at the initial monitoring time and the slope power increment displacement response ratio etatThe stability evaluation parameters were obtained.
When etatWhen the slope fluctuates around 1 or 1, judging that the slope is in a stable stage;
when etat>1, continuously increasing, and judging that the side slope is in an unstable development stage;
for the slope in the unstable development stage, determining the ratio of the variation of the water content power load-increasing response ratio to the variation of the average surface water content as the variation rate of the water content power load-increasing response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000068
Figure GDA0002933742130000067
Rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000069
When the slope is a constant, judging that the slope is in an accelerated deformation stage, and performing orange early warning on the landslide at the moment; rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000071
When the slope is gradually increased, the slope is judged to be in the integral sliding stage, and at the moment, the slope is subjected to red early warning.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: establishing an evaluation and prediction method for landslide stability based on a weight gain effect generated by increasing the water content of a slope body in the rainfall infiltration process by applying an elastoplasticity theory, determining an evaluation parameter between slope instability and rainfall infiltration in the early rainfall process, considering the influence of the weight gain effect generated in the slope body water content increase process caused by rainfall infiltration under the early rainfall condition on the landslide stability, taking the average downward sliding force of n soil strips as a power load-increasing parameter, and taking the landslide displacement in a corresponding time period as a power load-increasing displacement response parameter; monitoring and measuring the change and evolution trend of the dynamic slope stability coefficient under the condition of continuous rainfall, determining a landslide dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio coupling prediction parameter and an evaluation model according to the relation between a dynamic load-increasing parameter and a displacement response parameter, primarily judging the stability of the landslide by taking the dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio as a parameter, and utilizing the change rate of the water content dynamic load-increasing response ratio on the slope in the unstable development stage
Figure GDA0002933742130000072
And (5) judging the deformation stage and predicting and forecasting.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of a soil strip dissection and sensor distribution.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Example 1
The method comprises the following steps: exploration and determination of basic physical and mechanical parameters of landslide body
According to the engineering rock mass test method standard (GB/T50266-2013) and the geotechnical test regulation (SL237-1999), systematic exploration, geophysical prospecting, testing, investigation and mapping are carried out on the landslide to be measured, the vertical burial depth of the slope body of the slope and the change rule of the dip angle of the whole slip surface of the underburden rock are determined, according to the slope tilt rule of the landslide, the slope body is divided into vertical strips with equal width from the high-angle rear edge of the slope slip surface to the low-angle front edge of the slip surface, and the tilt angle of the slip surface is recorded as thetaiThe average height of the ith soil strip is recorded as hi(as shown in fig. 2). Comprehensive determination of soil layer dryness and gravity gamma of slope body by rock-soil in-situ test or indoor geotechnical testdInitial modulus of elasticity E0. See Table 1
TABLE 1 basic parameter List of side slope
Parameter soil strip 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Xi 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
θi 30 30 31 29 29.5 28 26 24 20 20
γd 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
hi 10 12 12 13 13.6 12.5 13 11 9.5 8
E0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Step two: arranging monitoring devices and processing monitoring data
Determining a monitoring time interval unit (hour or day, etc.) of the landslide according to the time length of a rainfall event and the displacement and stability conditions of the landslide, and adopting a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device and a Delta-T type moisture meter to monitor the displacement of the landslide and the moisture content of the slope body in real time at the determined time interval so as to respectively determine a time sequence of the displacement of the slope
Figure GDA0002933742130000081
Time series w of water content of Hepot(0)k(t ═ 1, 2 … … n, where t is the monitoring time). The specific monitoring steps are as follows:
(1) monitoring of landslide displacement
Arranging n displacement monitoring points at different strip positions of a slope body, selecting at least three reference points in stable bedrock or deformation-free areas outside a monitored landslide body, installing a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device, transmitting the monitoring data to a remote monitoring terminal for classification pretreatment through a side slope field data signal collector, and further performing pretreatment to obtain an average value S of displacement changes of the n displacement monitoring pointstThe Excel table is entered in detail. See Table 2
Figure GDA0002933742130000091
TABLE 2 average Displacement List of n soil bars
Figure GDA0002933742130000092
(2) Monitoring of water content of slope
A water content sensor is arranged on the surface layer of each soil strip, then a moisture meter sensor is respectively arranged at the middle part and the bottom part of the representative first soil strip and the representative m soil strip (the soil strips with the highest soil strip height and the lowest soil strip height), and monitoring data are respectively recorded. See Table 3
TABLE 3 slope water content summary table
Figure GDA0002933742130000093
Step three: determining the water content and the gravity of soil strips under different depth conditions
(1) Determination of soil strip water content under different depth conditions
The evolution law of the water content of the 5 th and 10 th soil strips along with the depth of the slope body conforms to the exponential function relation curve of the formula (2), namely:
Figure GDA0002933742130000101
in the formula: w is at(0)kIs the water content of the surface layer of the soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000102
is depth at x (x)>0) The water content of the soil strips at the rice position,
Figure GDA0002933742130000103
al、bland am、bmTo obtain
Figure GDA0002933742130000104
The calculation results are shown in Table 4:
TABLE 4 summary of the calculated results
a b al bl am bm
-0.65 0.003 -0.63 0.001 -0.67 0.005
(2) Determination of soil strip gravity at different depths
Determining the soil strip weight according to the formula (3) as follows:
γ＝γd(1+w) (3)
the evolution law of the water content of each soil strip is the same, so that the change curve of the i-th soil strip gravity along with the depth of the soil strip can be determined by the formulas (2) and (3):
Figure GDA0002933742130000105
in the formula: gamma raydThe dryness and gravity of the slope body.
Step four: determining the power of side slope rainfall infiltration and power load-increasing parameters
Determining the downward slip force G 'of the ith soil strip in the rainfall infiltration process according to a formula (5)'ti：
Figure GDA0002933742130000111
Determining the average gliding force of n soil strips in the rainfall infiltration process according to the formula (6)
Figure GDA0002933742130000112
Figure GDA0002933742130000113
In the formula: gamma raydThe degree of dryness is dry and severe; thetaiThe tangential dip angle (DEG) of the sliding surface at the midpoint of the ith soil strip is shown; h isiIs the height (m) of the ith soil strip; xiIs the horizontal width (m) of the ith soil strip;
Figure GDA0002933742130000114
is the average height (m) of the n soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000115
Figure GDA0002933742130000116
is the average surface layer water content of the n soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000117
wherein the average slip force of n soil strips corresponding to the monitoring time t
Figure GDA0002933742130000118
The dynamic load-increasing parameter is the water content of the side slope. The calculation results are shown in Table 5:
TABLE 5 List of the calculation results of the glide force of each soil strip
Figure GDA0002933742130000119
Figure GDA0002933742130000121
Step five: determining slope rainfall infiltration weight gain dynamic effect displacement
The modulus of elasticity E at time tt(EtModulus of elasticity after weakening) and initial modulus of elasticity E0The ratio is defined as the displacement reduction factor taut：
Figure GDA0002933742130000122
In the formula:
Figure GDA0002933742130000123
Figure GDA0002933742130000124
the average water content of the I and m soil strips at the time t is shown.
Determining weight gain dynamic effect displacement quantity delta S under the condition of rainfall infiltration according to formulas (1) and (7)t：
Figure GDA0002933742130000125
The calculation results are shown in Table 6:
table 6 summary of calculation results of displacement due to weight gain effect
Monitoring time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
E0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Et 23.55 21.40 15.35 12.49 9.66 7.81 5.39 2.42
τt 1.18 1.07 0.77 0.62 0.48 0.39 0.27 0.12
△St 1.06 1.18 0.88 0.72 0.57 0.47 0.33 0.16
Step six: determining power load-increasing and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of slope water content
(1) The initial monitoring time t of the side slope1Corresponding slope water content power increment amount G0Initial displacement response value deltaS corresponding to the displacement0The ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the response rate lambda of the dynamic load-increasing displacement of the initial water content of the side slope0：
Figure GDA0002933742130000126
(2) Increasing the dynamic capacity of the water content at any time t
Figure GDA0002933742130000136
Corresponding dynamic displacement response Delta StThe ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the water content power load displacement response rate lambda at any time tt。
Figure GDA0002933742130000131
(3) The water content power load-increasing displacement response rate lambda of any time ttAnd its initial time t1Dynamic load-increasing displacement response rate lambda0The ratio is defined as the slope water ratio dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio etatNamely:
Figure GDA0002933742130000132
in the formula:
Figure GDA0002933742130000133
Figure GDA0002933742130000134
is the average height (m) of n soil strips;
Figure GDA0002933742130000135
the average surface moisture content of n soil strips at the initial monitoring time is shown.
Increment displacement response ratio eta by slope powertThe stability of the sample was evaluated and predicted as a stability evaluation parameter. The calculation results are shown in Table 7:
TABLE 7 summary of power load-up and displacement coupling evaluation parameter calculation results
Monitoring time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
△S0 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06 1.06
△St 1.06 1.18 0.88 0.72 0.57 0.47 0.33 0.16
ηt - 0.99 1.45 1.98 2.65 3.53 5.43 14.28
Step seven: landslide stability evaluation and monitoring early warning
(1) When etatWhen the slope fluctuates 1 or around 1, judging that the slope is in a stable stage;
(2) when etat>1 and ηt>1, and judging that the side slope is in an unstable development stage.
(3) For the slope in the unstable development stage, determining the ratio of the variation of the water content power load-increasing response ratio to the variation of the average surface water content as the variation rate of the water content power load-increasing response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000145
Figure GDA0002933742130000141
Rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000146
If the slope is a constant, judging that the slope is in an accelerated deformation stage, and performing orange early warning on the landslide at the moment; rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure GDA0002933742130000147
When the slope is gradually increased, the slope is judged to be in the integral sliding stage, and at the moment, red early warning needs to be carried out on the slope. The calculation results are shown in Table 8:
TABLE 8 moisture content power load-carrying response ratio change rate calculation result list
Figure GDA0002933742130000142
According to the table 7 and the table 8, the slope is in a stable stage within the monitoring time period of 1-3; in the accelerated deformation stage within the monitoring time period of 4-6, orange early warning is needed to be carried out on the landslide at the moment; and in the integral slip stage within the monitoring time period of 4-6, red early warning is required to be carried out on the landslide at the moment.
Example 2
In the rainfall process, the water content of the slope body at different positions (the top of the slope, the slope surface and the foot of the slope) is affected by the rainfall to different degrees at the same vertical depth; the change of the water content of the side slope at different vertical depths has certain heterogeneity, the same point is that the curve shapes of the change are consistent, and the water content of the slope body is in a decreasing trend along with the increase of the depth of the slope body; different points are that different depths of water content inside the side slope are different, and the surface layer water content can be greatly changed in the short time of the rainfall process. Therefore, the evolution law of the water content of the first and m soil strips along with the depth of the slope body conforms to the exponential function relation curve of the formula (1), namely:
Figure GDA0002933742130000143
in the formula of omegat(0)kIs the water content of the surface layer of the soil strips,
Figure GDA0002933742130000144
is depth at x (x)>0) The water content of the soil strips at the rice position,
Figure GDA0002933742130000151
al、bland am、bmThe value of (A) is obtained by using least square fitting, and the calculation process is as follows:
taking logarithms at two sides of the formula (1) at the same time, then:
Figure GDA0002933742130000152
is provided with
Figure GDA0002933742130000153
a*＝lnwt(0)k+ln a，b*＝b，Xk＝-xkThen:
Yi＝a*+b*Xk (3)
equation (3) is taken as a linear combination of two elementary functions (4) (5):
Figure GDA0002933742130000154
and (3) taking the formula (3) as the number of the test data, and knowing by the least square method calculation principle:
Figure GDA0002933742130000155
Figure GDA0002933742130000156
Figure GDA0002933742130000157
Figure GDA0002933742130000158
Figure GDA0002933742130000159
substituting the calculation result of the above formula into the calculation a of formula (11)*,b*：
Figure GDA00029337421300001510
Respectively substituting the monitoring data of the kth soil strip and the m soil strip into the formula to obtain a of the l soil strip and the m soil stripl、blAnd am、bmThe value is obtained.
Figure GDA0002933742130000161
Example 3
Displacement variable quantity delta S caused by rainfall infiltration under different rainfall conditionsjDisplacement variation quantity delta S 'mainly caused by water content change and weight gain effect generated by heavy increase'jAnd deformation parameter (modulus of elasticity E)jEtc.) the amount of change Δ S ″ in displacement due to weakeningjTwo parts are formed.
According to the basic principle of elastoplasticity mechanics, the relation between the attenuation of rainfall infiltration type landslide deformation parameters and displacement variables is as follows:
Figure GDA0002933742130000162
Figure GDA0002933742130000163
Figure GDA0002933742130000164
according to the formulas (13), (14) and (15):
Figure GDA0002933742130000165
in the formula: the number of the delta S is more than two,
Figure GDA0002933742130000166
respectively displacement deformation, average strain and average stress of the sliding soil body caused by rainfall; e is the elastic modulus of the slope body; the volume V of the slip mass per unit width is hi cos θ. And delta P is the gliding power increment of the slope body.
According to the formula (16), when the E elastic modulus is not softened, the change of the displacement deformation quantity delta S is positively correlated with the glide power increment, and when the glide force increment delta P is unchanged and the E elastic modulus is weakened, the change of the displacement deformation quantity delta S is negatively correlated with the E elastic modulus; when the displacement deformation quantity Delta S is constant: when the elastic modulus is not weakened, the displacement deformation is caused by the gliding power increment; e, the elastic modulus is weakened, the displacement deformation is caused by the downslide power increment and the weakening of deformation parameters, and the larger the weakening of the elastic modulus is, the smaller the displacement deformation caused by rainfall weight gain is; therefore, the elastic modulus E of t timetAnd initial modulus of elasticity E0The ratio is defined as the displacement reduction factor taut：
Figure GDA0002933742130000171
In the formula: etThe function relation between the water content of the slope body and the elastic modulus can be obtained by the test results obtained by measuring the change condition of the elastic modulus of the rock-soil body under different water content conditions through indoor tests by the predecessors in Table 1
Figure GDA0002933742130000172
Figure GDA0002933742130000173
The average water content of the kth soil strip at the time t is shown.
TABLE 1
Water content of soil (%) Modulus of elasticity E (MPa) Poisson ratio mu
6.78 18.2 0.405
7.50 15.7 0.409
10.98 7.5 0.413
11.72 4.0 0.385
13.52 3.2 0.397
14.86 3.2 0.411
15.22 3.0 0.436
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.

Claims (2)

1. A method for predicting landslide by utilizing a landslide water ratio load-carrying response ratio is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: exploring and measuring parameters of basic physical mechanics of a landslide body;
step two: arranging monitoring equipment and processing monitoring data;
step three: determining the water content and the gravity of each soil strip under different depth conditions;
step four: determining the power and power load-increasing parameters of the side slope rainfall infiltration gliding;
step five: determining the displacement of the rainfall infiltration weight-increasing dynamic effect of the side slope;
step six: determining power load-increasing and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of the slope water content;
step seven: evaluating landslide stability and monitoring and early warning;
the parameters in the first step comprise the slide surface inclination angle thetaiAverage height h of the ith soil stripiDry and severe soil layer gamma of side slopedInitial modulus of elasticity E0The soil strips are divided into equal-width vertical strips from the high-angle rear edge of the slope slip surface to the low-angle front edge of the slip surface;
the monitoring data in the second step comprise landslide displacement data and slope body water content data; and respectively determining the time sequence of slope displacement
Figure FDA0002933742120000012
And the water content w of the surface layer of the soil stripst(0)kWherein t is monitoring time, and t is 1, 2 … … n, and the specific monitoring steps are as follows:
monitoring of landslide displacement
Arranging n displacement monitoring points at different strip positions of a slope body, selecting at least three reference points in stable bedrock or deformation-free areas outside a landslide body to be monitored, then installing a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device, transmitting the monitoring data to a remote monitoring terminal through a side slope field data signal collector for classification pretreatment, and further carrying out pretreatment to obtain an average value of displacement changes of the n displacement monitoring points
Figure FDA0002933742120000013
The Excel table is recorded in detail,
Figure FDA0002933742120000011
wherein: stiThe displacement value of the ith displacement monitoring point at the time t;
monitoring of water content of slope
Arranging a water content sensor on the surface layer of each soil strip, then respectively arranging a Delta-T type moisture meter at the middle part and the bottom of the first soil strip and the mth soil strip, and respectively recording slope body water content monitoring data, wherein l and m refer to the soil strip with the highest height and the soil strip with the lowest height;
when the water content of the soil strips under different depth conditions is determined, the water content of the first soil strip and the water content of the m soil strip conform to an exponential function relation curve of a formula (2) along with the depth evolution rule of a slope body, namely:
Figure FDA0002933742120000021
in the formula: w is at(0)kIs the water content of the surface layer of the soil strips,
Figure FDA0002933742120000022
is deepDegree is in x, x>The water content of the soil strips at the position of 0 meter,
Figure FDA0002933742120000023
al、bland am、bmThe following formula is used to obtain the target,
Figure FDA0002933742120000024
wherein k is l or m;
determining the soil strip gravity under different depth conditions:
determining the soil strip weight according to the formula (3) as follows:
γ＝γd(1+w) (3)
the evolution law of the water content of each soil strip is the same, so that the change curve of the i-th soil strip gravity along with the depth of the soil strip is determined by the formulas (2) and (3):
Figure FDA0002933742120000031
in the formula: gamma raydThe dry weight of the slope body;
determining the slope rainfall infiltration gliding power obtains the gliding force G 'of the ith soil strip in the rainfall infiltration process through a formula (5)'ti
Figure FDA0002933742120000032
Calculating the average gliding force of n soil strips in the rainfall infiltration process according to a formula (6)
Figure FDA0002933742120000033
Figure FDA0002933742120000034
In the formula: gamma raydThe degree of dryness is dry and severe; thetaiThe inclination angle of the tangent line of the sliding surface at the midpoint of the ith soil strip is expressed in degrees; h isiThe height of the ith soil strip is measured in meters; x is the horizontal width of the soil strip, and the unit is meter;
Figure FDA0002933742120000035
is the average height of the n soil strips, the unit is meter,
Figure FDA0002933742120000036
Figure FDA0002933742120000037
is the average surface water content of the n soil strips,
Figure FDA0002933742120000038
Figure FDA0002933742120000039
wherein, the average gliding force of n soil strips corresponding to the monitoring time t,
Figure FDA00029337421200000310
defining the water content dynamic load-increasing parameter as a slope;
when determining the dynamic effect displacement of the rainfall infiltration weight gain of the slope in the step five, weakening the elastic modulus E at the time ttAnd initial modulus of elasticity E0The ratio is defined as the displacement reduction factor taut
Figure FDA0002933742120000041
In the formula:
Figure FDA0002933742120000042
average of the l and m soil strips at time tWater content;
determining weight gain dynamic effect displacement quantity delta S under the condition of rainfall infiltration according to formulas (1) and (7)t：
Figure FDA0002933742120000043
And sixthly, when determining the dynamic load increase and displacement coupling evaluation parameters of the water content of the side slope, the initial monitoring time t of the side slope1Corresponding slope water content power increasing amount
Figure FDA0002933742120000044
Initial displacement response value deltaS corresponding to the displacement0The ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the response rate lambda of the dynamic load-increasing displacement of the initial water content of the side slope0
Figure FDA0002933742120000045
Increasing the dynamic capacity of the water content at any time t
Figure FDA0002933742120000046
Corresponding dynamic displacement response Delta StThe ratio of the water content to the displacement is defined as the water content power load displacement response rate lambda at any time tt
Figure FDA0002933742120000047
The water content power load-increasing displacement response rate lambda of any time ttAnd an initial time t1Water content power load-increasing displacement response rate lambda0The ratio is defined as the slope water ratio dynamic load-increasing displacement response ratio etatNamely:
Figure FDA0002933742120000051
in the formula:
Figure FDA0002933742120000052
Figure FDA0002933742120000053
is the average height of n soil strips in total, and the unit is m,
Figure FDA0002933742120000054
the total initial monitoring time is the average surface layer water content of n soil strips, and the slope dynamic increment displacement response ratio etatThe landslide stability evaluation parameters are obtained;
when etatWhen the slope fluctuates around 1 or 1, judging that the slope is in a stable stage;
when etat>1, continuously increasing, and judging that the side slope is in an unstable development stage;
for the slope in the unstable development stage, determining the ratio of the variation of the water content power load-increasing response ratio to the variation of the average surface water content as the variation rate of the water content power load-increasing response ratio
Figure FDA0002933742120000058
Figure FDA0002933742120000055
Rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure FDA0002933742120000056
When the slope is a constant, judging that the slope is in an accelerated deformation stage, and performing orange early warning on the landslide at the moment; rate of change of power-to-load response ratio
Figure FDA0002933742120000057
When the slope is gradually increased, the slope is judged to be in the integral sliding stage, and at the moment, the slope is subjected to red early warning.
2. The method for predicting landslide using the water cut loading response ratio of landslide of claim 1, wherein: the monitoring equipment in the second step comprises a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device and a Delta-T type moisture meter; when monitoring data are obtained, firstly, according to the time length of a rainfall event and the displacement and stability conditions of the landslide, determining the monitoring time interval unit, hour or day of the landslide, and adopting a wireless GPS displacement monitoring device and a Delta-T type moisture meter to monitor the displacement of the landslide and the moisture content of the slope body in real time at the determined time interval.
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