CN109948914B - Dynamic risk analysis method for escalator of rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to a dynamic risk analysis method for an escalator of a rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity, which comprises the following steps: s1, constructing a fault propagation chain: s2, constructing a risk propagation chain: s3, calculating the fault probability of the risk propagation chain: s4, calculating a fault consequence value: and S5, calculating a risk consequence value. The method has the advantages that aiming at the problem of dynamic risk propagation of the escalator in the regional track traffic hub, based on the analysis method of the characteristic quantity, the voltage unbalance is selected as the characteristic quantity, a relation model of the failure rate of the escalator along with the change of the characteristic quantity of the risk source is constructed through information acquisition and calculation processing of the electrical failure risk source of the escalator and the risk propagation process of a certain failure risk chain, and the consequent risk value of the failure of the escalator is obtained through calculation of passenger flow indexes such as safety and high efficiency in the traffic hub.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of rail transit, and particularly relates to a dynamic risk analysis method for an escalator of a rail transit hub based on characteristic quantities.
Background
At present, the risk analysis and evaluation of the escalator in China are mainly based on the standard GB/T20900-2007 method for evaluating and reducing the risk of the elevator, the escalator and the moving sidewalk. The standard makes a principle regulation on the method and the program for evaluating the escalator risk, provides important reference for the risk evaluation, analysis and related research of the elevator and the escalator, but because statistical data analysis is lacked, when the standard is actually applied to carry out the risk analysis and evaluation, the two most critical links of determining the severity and the occurrence probability of the risk still mainly depend on the subjective judgment and evaluation of experts of an evaluation group.
The risk consequences of the escalator are mainly reflected in the aspect of passenger flow risks in regional rail transit, the position of the passenger flow risk is mainly located at a service facility in a junction, and the existing modeling research on the rail transit junction service facility mainly focuses on two aspects: firstly, simulation modeling research on a microscopic level is carried out based on specific physical forms of service facilities and individual parameters of passengers, such as a social force model, a cellular automaton model and the like; and secondly, performing analytic modeling of the mesoscopic level based on the design parameters of the service facilities and the statistical rules of the passenger groups.
Aiming at the risk analysis of the escalator, more foreigners are statistical analysis of the occurred accident cases and analysis of the dynamic reliability of the escalator by adopting a characteristic quantity method, and no analysis method report of combination of the characteristic quantity and a fault risk chain exists, no report about the construction of a dynamic influence result model of the escalator fault on passenger flow in a rail transit junction exists, and the risk control of the escalator electrical fault lacks technical support.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve various technical problems provided by the invention, the invention provides a dynamic risk analysis method of an escalator of a rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity, wherein a brake escalator structure mainly comprises a driving device, a ladder way, a handrail device, a safety protection device and the like, and the method comprises the following modeling steps of an escalator fault risk chain caused by voltage unbalance:
s1, constructing a fault propagation chain: selecting a traction motor as an object, and establishing a fault propagation chain of the escalator; the fault propagation chain comprises in sequence: the escalator mechanical structure failure and escalator failure shutdown caused by motor failure shutdown or impact force of the motor on the truss due to abnormal rotation of the sub-rotor are caused by unbalanced stator voltage, abnormal vibration of the traction motor, abnormal rotation of the electronic rotor or increased impact force of the motor on the truss;
s2, constructing a risk propagation chain: the method comprises the steps that the voltage unbalance is used as a risk source of a risk transmission chain, the influence of the voltage unbalance on the fault rate of the escalator is calculated, and the risk transmission chain of the escalator is established;
the risk propagation chain comprises in sequence: the motor represented by the voltage unbalance degree, the vibration speed and the electronic rotor rotation abnormity or the vibration acceleration of the stator represented by the voltage unbalance degree increases the impact force on the truss, and the failure rate P of the traction motor1The failure rate P of the characterized motor due to failure or truss2The represented escalator mechanical structure faults and the represented escalator fault rate are stopped;
s3, calculating the fault probability of the risk propagation chain: calculating the fault probability P of the risk propagation chain according to formula I,
P＝1-(1-P1)*(1-P2) I
s4, calculating a fault consequence value: taking the safety SA and the high efficiency EF as the indexes of passenger flow risk, carrying out risk consequence analysis on the escalator of the traffic hub, and calculating according to a formula II to obtain a fault consequence value C;
C＝ρ1*(1-SA)+ρ2*(1-EF) II
where ρ is1Weight, ρ, representing security SA2Representing the weight of the effective EF.
The invention provides a characteristic quantity-based dynamic risk analysis method for an escalator of a rail transit junction, which further comprises the following processing steps of escalator risk consequences caused by voltage unbalance:
s5, calculating a risk consequence value: the risk consequence value R is used to calculate a risk rating, the risk consequence value R is calculated according to formula III,
R＝P*C III
in the formula, R represents a risk consequence value, P represents the failure probability of a risk propagation chain, and C represents a failure consequence value.
The invention provides a dynamic risk analysis method of an escalator of a rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity, which further comprises the following steps:
s6, risk early warning step: according to the voltage unbalance and the fault rate P of the traction motor1And (3) establishing a relation between the characteristic quantity value and the risk consequence value R as well as the risk grade, monitoring the magnitude of the voltage unbalance degree after setting the voltage unbalance degree threshold according to different early warning purposes, and outputting a risk early warning signal by the system.
The invention provides a dynamic risk analysis method of an escalator of a rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity, which further comprises the following steps:
s7, risk level setting: the risk classes are classified into 5 classes according to the risk outcome value R,
when R is greater than 0.4, judging that the risk is very high;
when R is more than 0.3 and less than or equal to 0.4, the risk is judged to be higher;
when R is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.3, the risk is judged to be moderate;
when R is more than 0.1 and less than or equal to 0.2, the risk is judged to be lower;
when R is less than or equal to 0.1, the risk is judged to be low.
The security information SA of the invention is preferably calculated according to formula IV, the efficiency information EF according to formula V,
wherein SmFor the per-person area when the node is congested, use ES (unit m)2/ped；
ρp: passenger flow density) represents the per-capita area, and SA represents security information;
EF＝e-ET/MT V
where MT is the maximum tolerated elapsed time of the passenger at the node and ET represents the average elapsed time of the passenger.
The voltage unbalance information of the invention is preferably calculated according to a formula VI;
wherein VUF denotes a voltage unbalance;
representing complex or phasor forms of positive and negative sequence voltages, respectively, wherein
Respectively in the form of three-phase voltage complex of a winding; operator
Multiplying the b phasor by a means rotating the b phasor by 120 degrees counterclockwise, and similarly, a2Representing a counter-clockwise rotation of 240 deg., and having a value of 1+ a2＝0。
In the risk propagation chain of the step S2 of the invention, the failure rate P of the traction motor1The characterized risk analysis method for the shutdown of the motor due to the fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating a direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and a motor vibration value;
s2.2, calculating a direct proportion relation of the fault rate of the motor along with the vibration value of the motor;
and S2.3, calculating the direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and the motor fault rate.
In the risk propagation chain of step S2 of the present invention, the truss failure rate P2The characterized risk analysis method for the escalator mechanical structure fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating the change relation between the point safety coefficient and the vertical acceleration of the motor;
s2.2, calculating a relation between the safety coefficient and the change of the truss fault rate;
and S2.3, calculating the change relation between the vertical acceleration and the failure rate of the truss.
The invention has the beneficial effects that aiming at the problem of dynamic risk transmission of the escalator in the regional track transportation junction, the invention provides a dynamic risk analysis method of the escalator in the track transportation junction based on the characteristic quantity, the analysis method based on the characteristic quantity selects the voltage unbalance as the characteristic quantity, a relation model of the failure rate of the escalator changing along with the characteristic quantity of the risk source is constructed by acquiring and calculating information of the risk transmission process of an electrical failure risk source of the escalator and a certain failure risk chain, and the consequent risk value of the failure of the escalator is obtained by calculating passenger flow indexes in the transportation junction, such as safety and high efficiency. The embodiment shows that the escalator electrical fault is an important factor causing the increase of passenger flow risk, and the risk consequences caused by the escalator faults at different positions are greatly different, so that the early warning signal can be given out by monitoring the size of the characteristic quantity of the risk source and based on the threshold value, and effective technical support is provided for the risk control of the escalator electrical fault in the transportation junction.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic view of the escalator structure;
FIG. 2 is a schematic view of the working principle of the escalator;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of a fault risk propagation chain for an escalator drive;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating the relationship between the voltage unbalance and the vibration value;
FIG. 5 is a graph illustrating a failure rate of a motor according to a variation of a vibration value of the motor;
FIG. 6 is a graph illustrating voltage imbalance versus motor failure rate;
FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of the relationship between the safety coefficient of the investigation point and the vertical acceleration of the motor;
FIG. 8 is a graph showing a relationship between the safety factor and the failure rate of the truss;
FIG. 9 is a schematic diagram of vertical acceleration versus truss failure rate;
FIG. 10 is a plan simulation of the Chongqing North station;
FIG. 11 is a three-dimensional simulation diagram of a Chongqing North station;
FIG. 12 is a schematic view of a waiting flow escalator and stairs (A and A1);
FIG. 13 is a schematic view of an on-board streamline escalator and stairway (B and B1);
FIG. 14 is a graph of stair traffic density change for escalator A1 fault;
FIG. 15B is a graph of staircase traffic density change for staircase malfunction B1;
FIG. 16 is a schematic diagram of ISO2372 machine vibration classification chart and motor equipment classification.
Detailed Description
In the following embodiments, the tables and the drawings are provided to explain the principle of the present invention, and are helpful for understanding the principle of the technical solutions provided by the respective embodiments to solve the technical problems, and in some cases, cannot be understood as the technical means for explaining the technical problems themselves. In addition, the following examples are not intended to describe in detail how a person of ordinary skill in the art can implement various details for solving the technical problems of the present invention by using the natural laws including computer technology according to the technical solutions of the present invention.
The escalator related to the invention comprises but is not limited to the escalator defined in GB 16899-2011 new national standard, and is a fixed electric driving device with circulating running steps and used for transporting passengers upwards or downwards. Note: escalators are machines that cannot be used as fixed stairs even when not in operation. The escalator has become one of the important equipments in the current rail transit, and the main structural composition and the working principle thereof are as shown in fig. 1 and fig. 2.
As a key electrical equipment in a rail transit junction, an escalator is composed of a chain conveyor in a special structural form and two belt conveyors in a special structural form, and is provided with a circulating movement ladder way and a fixed electric driving device which is used for conveying passengers upwards or downwards in different story heights of a building. A complete escalator system comprises a motor, a truss, a main transmission mechanism, a chain mechanism, rollers, steps, a handrail belt, a comb plate, a skirt panel and the like.
The moving part of the escalator mainly comprises two groups of conveyor belts: one group is a step chain conveyor belt for dragging steps, the other group is a friction conveyor belt for conveying handrail belts, in order to keep the linear speeds of the two groups of conveyor belts the same, the two groups of conveyor belts are dragged by the same driving main shaft of a motor, in addition, the step chain conveyor belt is composed of two chains, each step is installed on the two step chains, so the left and right two chains have to keep the same length, and the steps can safely run according to a set path under the action of guide rails of main and auxiliary wheels.
In the national standard GB50157-2003 subway design Specification, a public transportation type heavy-load escalator is adopted at a subway station, and in the new national standard GB 16899 plus 2011 safety Specification for manufacturing and installing escalators and moving sidewalks, the public transportation type heavy-load escalator has the continuous heavy-load time of not less than 1h within a time interval of 3h, and the load of the public transportation type heavy-load escalator reaches 100 percent of brake load (120 KG/step). Therefore, for the public transportation type heavy-load escalator, because the motor needs to consider the continuous heavy load of 1h, the power configuration of the traction motor is higher than that of the common escalator, and the sufficient power configuration can not only ensure the power requirement of the escalator in the peak passenger flow, but also ensure the service life of the motor, and is very necessary for the heavy-load escalator.
The driving device of the escalator comprises a traction motor, a reducer, a brake and the like, and the probability of escalator faults caused by the faults of the traction motor is up to 40 percent, namely the faults of the traction motor occur frequently.
For the asynchronous motors used in modern industrial occasions, the winding connection method is mostly delta connection method or Y-shaped neutral-point-free connection method, and for the motors, zero-sequence voltage and zero-sequence current components do not exist in the windings. When the motor runs normally and symmetrically, a uniform circular rotating magnetic field is formed in the motor, and the electromagnetic torque of the uniform circular rotating magnetic field is a constant value. When the three-phase voltage is unbalanced, the positive sequence voltage generates positive electromagnetic torque which is driving torque, the negative sequence voltage generates negative electromagnetic torque, so that the total electromagnetic torque is reduced, the braking effect is achieved, and the track of the synthesized magnetomotive force is an elliptical rotating magnetic field, so that the corresponding change of the electromagnetic torque of the motor is no longer a constant value, and the motor vibration abnormity can be caused. On the other hand, because the traction motor is fixed on the escalator truss and the two are combined into a whole, because of the abnormal vibration of the traction motor, the motor generates vertical acceleration which acts on fatigue control points of the truss structure, such as welding parts or screw parts for fixing the motor, so that fatigue cracks are generated at the parts, and the mechanical fault of the whole escalator structure can be caused, thereby causing the shutdown of the escalator and even the casualties.
One embodiment is to select a traction motor as a research object, establish a fault propagation chain, analyze the influence of a risk source on the fault rate of the escalator by analyzing the propagation of characteristic quantities, and disclose an escalator risk propagation chain, which specifically comprises the following steps: the dynamic risk analysis method of the escalator of the rail transit junction based on the characteristic quantity comprises the following steps of modeling a fault risk chain of the escalator caused by voltage unbalance:
s1, constructing a fault propagation chain: selecting a traction motor as an object, and establishing a fault propagation chain of the escalator; as shown in fig. 3, the fault propagation chain includes in sequence: the escalator mechanical structure failure and escalator failure shutdown caused by motor failure shutdown or impact force of the motor on the truss due to abnormal rotation of the sub-rotor are caused by unbalanced stator voltage, abnormal vibration of the traction motor, abnormal rotation of the electronic rotor or increased impact force of the motor on the truss;
s2, constructing a risk propagation chain: the method comprises the steps that the voltage unbalance is used as a risk source of a risk transmission chain, the influence of the voltage unbalance on the fault rate of the escalator is calculated, and the risk transmission chain of the escalator is established;
as shown in fig. 3, the risk propagation chain comprises in sequence: the motor represented by the voltage unbalance degree, the vibration speed and the electronic rotor rotation abnormity or the vibration acceleration of the stator represented by the voltage unbalance degree increases the impact force on the truss, and the failure rate P of the traction motor1The failure rate P of the characterized motor due to failure or truss2The represented escalator mechanical structure faults and the represented escalator fault rate are stopped;
s3, calculating the fault probability of the risk propagation chain: escalator systems are made up of several components in series, i.e. failure of any component causes system failure. Setting the fault rate of the escalator as P, calculating the fault probability P of the risk transmission chain according to a formula I,
P＝1-(1-P1)*(1-P2) I
in the preferred embodiment, the Voltage Unbalance (VUF) accurately defined by GB/T15543-2008 is used for calculation, and the calculation method can accurately obtain the voltage unbalance by measuring the three-phase voltage effective value in the practical engineering application, so that the complex phase angle calculation is avoided, engineering technicians can conveniently use the method in the practical engineering, and the calculation process is shown in a formula VI.
Wherein VUF denotes a voltage unbalance;
representing complex or phasor forms of positive and negative sequence voltages, respectively, wherein
Respectively in the form of three-phase voltage complex of a winding; operator
Multiplying the b phasor by a means rotating the b phasor by 120 degrees counterclockwise, and similarly, a2Representing a counter-clockwise rotation of 240 deg., and having a value of 1+ a2＝0。
The voltage imbalance information in some embodiments further includes line voltage imbalance (LVUF), phase voltage imbalance (PVUF), and complex voltage imbalance (CVUF). A pair of various voltage unbalance calculation methods is as shown in table 1 below.
Table 14 comparison of voltage unbalance calculation methods
Traction motor failure rate P in the risk propagation chain of step S2 of some embodiments1The characterized risk analysis method for the shutdown of the motor due to the fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating a direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and a motor vibration value;
s2.2, calculating a direct proportion relation of the fault rate of the motor along with the vibration value of the motor;
and S2.3, calculating the direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and the motor fault rate.
Now utilize the prior artThe relation between the voltage unbalance and the motor vibration value is established by data collected on the spot by an asynchronous motor arranged in a water-logging air pressure station and a fitting model thereof in the operation. The motor adopts a delta connection mode, so that the voltage applied to the three-phase winding of the motor conforms to kirchhoff voltage law, namely:
zero sequence voltage of event
The voltage unbalance of the motor was determined by the above formula VI, as shown in table 2 below.
TABLE 2 voltage unbalance and motor vibration value corresponding relation
The relationship between the motor voltage unbalance and the motor vibration value is plotted in fig. 4 by using the 4 groups of voltage unbalance and motor vibration values of the motors in the table as references and applying a cubic polynomial fitting method.
As can be seen from fig. 4, the voltage unbalance of the incoming line of the motor is in a direct proportion relation with the vibration value of the motor, the vibration value of the motor increases with the increase of the voltage unbalance, and the voltage unbalance is one of the direct causes of the abnormal vibration of the motor.
The motor vibration is the phenomenon that is more easily met in the industrial production, and the unusual vibration of motor can accelerate motor bearing wearing and tearing, makes the normal life of bearing shorten greatly, simultaneously, because unusual vibration makes motor tip binding wire not hard up, causes end winding to produce the friction each other, and the resistance insulation reduces, and insulation life shortens, can cause insulation breakdown when serious. In order to reduce the harm of motor vibration to industrial production, a series of vibration standards are issued by the international standardization organization as the basis for evaluating the operation quality of a machine. FIG. 16 shows a vibration classification chart suitable for a machine with a working speed of 600-12000r/min and a vibration frequency in the range of 10-100 Hz.
In the figure, the position of the upper end of the main shaft,
a level: the vibration was considered to be good when the vibration was below the good limit.
B stage: and if the vibration is qualified, the vibration is between a good limit value and an alarm value, and the vibration state of the unit is considered to be acceptable, so that the unit can run for a long time.
C level: and the vibration is between the alarm limit and the shutdown limit, the unit can operate for a short time, but the monitoring is enhanced and measures are taken.
D stage: and if the vibration is not qualified, the machine is stopped immediately when the vibration exceeds the stop limit value.
The traction motors used by most of the rail transit hubs in China for running heavy-load escalators have the rated voltage of 380V and the rated power of more than 15KW, and the vibration value of the motor and the fault rate of the motor are obtained based on expert experience according to related indexes of ISO2372 (table 3), as shown in table 5 below.
TABLE 5 Motor vibration value and Motor failure Rate
A curve of the failure rate of the traction motor of the escalator changing along with the change of the vibration value of the motor is made by adopting a cubic polynomial fitting method, as shown in figure 5.
According to the relationship between the motor voltage unbalance and the motor vibration value in fig. 4, the voltage unbalance when the vibration values are 1.12, 2.3, 5.8, and 11.2 respectively can be calculated and substituted into the relationship between the motor vibration value and the motor failure rate, as shown in fig. 6.
As can be seen from fig. 6, when the voltage unbalance exceeds 1.5%, the motor failure rate increases more rapidly. When the motor runs under the unbalanced voltage state, the loss of the stator is increased due to the negative sequence component in the current and the voltage, therefore, the temperature rise of the stator winding is higher than that of the stator winding running under the balanced voltage, the motor is easy to burn, in addition, the locked-rotor torque, the minimum torque and the maximum torque of the motor are reduced, if the voltage unbalance degree exceeds 2.26 percent, the fault risk is very high, the motor winding is easy to burn the motor due to overhigh temperature, and meanwhile, the escalator stops working.
In the risk propagation chain of step S2 of some embodiments, the truss failure rate P2The characterized risk analysis method for the escalator mechanical structure fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating the change relation between the point safety coefficient and the vertical acceleration of the motor;
s2.2, calculating a relation between the safety coefficient and the change of the truss fault rate;
and S2.3, calculating the change relation between the vertical acceleration and the failure rate of the truss.
Because the escalator adopts an integral structure, the traction motor and the mechanical truss are fixed together, the vibration generated in the running process of the motor is directly transmitted to the truss, and for the motor rotating at high speed, the high speed means that the vibration frequency is high, and the vibration intensity is in direct proportion to the vibration acceleration, so that the vibration intensity is described by using the characteristic quantity of the vibration acceleration in some embodiments, and the impact force of the motor on the truss is reflected.
According to the literature experiment result, when the horizontal acceleration is increased from 0 to 8g, the safety coefficient of an investigation region (the safety coefficient is allowable stress/working stress is more than or equal to 1) is basically unchanged, when the horizontal acceleration exceeds 8g, the safety coefficient shows a descending trend, and the horizontal acceleration has almost no influence on the safety coefficient of the truss within a specified range.
From the known data, the frame safety factor is related to the motor vertical acceleration as shown in FIG. 7. As shown in FIG. 7, when the vertical acceleration value of the motor exceeds 2g, the fatigue damage influence of the vertical vibration of the motor on the framework is increased, and when the vertical acceleration reaches 10g, the safety factor of a point of investigation is close to 1.
Data in a safety coefficient and mechanical reliability design initial exploration [ J ] in a mechanical design of a document [ Guoweing and bin, Liguizhen ] is applied, 1994(04):38-39+37 ] is used, and a relation curve of the safety coefficient and the failure rate of the escalator truss is established and is shown in figure 8.
Table 6 safety factor and escalator truss fault rate table
According to the relationship between the safety factors and the truss failure rate in fig. 8, the vertical acceleration when the safety factors are respectively 1, 1.28, 2.33, 3.09, 3.72, 4.26 and 4.75 is calculated, and the relationship between the truss failure rate and the vertical acceleration is fitted according to the data in table 6, as shown in fig. 9.
From the above, the failure rate of the escalator continuously changes along with the change of the actual operation condition of the motor. During actual operation, along with the unusual of motor vibration, the fault rate of motor itself can increase, simultaneously, along with the increase of vertical acceleration, the impact force of motor to the truss also can increase to influence the factor of safety of truss, lead to the increase of automatic escalator truss mechanical structure fault rate. Therefore, under the condition that the detected vertical acceleration of the motor reaches 3g, the method can actively take measures to control the continuous evolution of risks and reduce the failure rate of the escalator.
Another embodiment of the present invention provides a characteristic quantity-based dynamic risk analysis method for an escalator of a rail transit junction, further including: the method also comprises the following processing steps of escalator risk consequences caused by voltage unbalance:
s4, calculating a fault consequence value: taking the safety SA and the high efficiency EF as the indexes of passenger flow risk, carrying out risk consequence analysis on the escalator of the traffic hub, and calculating according to a formula II to obtain a fault consequence value C;
C＝ρ1*(1-SA)+ρ2*(1-EF) II
where ρ is1Weight, ρ, representing security SA2Representing the weight of the effective EF.
Further, safety is more important than high efficiency, and when the high efficiency is low, safety is also deteriorated, and ρ is preferable1＝0.6，ρ2＝0.4。
S5, calculating a risk consequence value: the risk consequence value R is used to calculate a risk rating, the risk consequence value R is calculated according to formula III,
R＝P*C III
in the formula, R represents a risk consequence value, P represents the failure probability of a risk propagation chain, and C represents a failure consequence value.
In some embodiments, further comprising:
s6, risk early warning step: according to the voltage unbalance and the fault rate P of the traction motor1And establishing a relation between the characteristic quantity value and the risk consequence value R as well as the risk grade, monitoring the magnitude of the voltage unbalance degree after setting the voltage unbalance degree threshold according to different early warning purposes, and outputting a risk early warning signal by the system.
S7, risk level setting: the risk classes are classified into 5 classes according to the risk outcome value R,
when R is greater than 0.4, judging that the risk is very high;
when R is more than 0.3 and less than or equal to 0.4, the risk is judged to be higher;
when R is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.3, the risk is judged to be moderate;
when R is more than 0.1 and less than or equal to 0.2, the risk is judged to be lower;
when R is less than or equal to 0.1, the risk is judged to be low.
In some embodiments, the risk pre-warning signal includes an audible prompt, a digital prompt, a vibratory prompt emitted by the alarm terminal.
In some other embodiments, a feedback module may be further provided to feed back the risk early warning signal to the risk source or the fault risk chain, for example, the input terminal automatically adjusts the voltage imbalance and the motor vibration value. The technical application of the risk early warning signal obtained based on the method is within the gist of the disclosure of the invention.
For a queuing system of an escalator node in a transportation junction, according to the description of the content of a transport capacity and service quality manual (TCRP100) of the United states, the per-capita area is the most direct expression of passenger safety, obviously, the smaller the ES, the more crowded the ES and the poorer the passenger safety, the safety information SA is preferably calculated according to a formula IV, and the high-efficiency information EF is calculated according to a formula V.
Wherein SmThe average area of the nodes in congestion (generally 0.2 m)2/ped) in ES (unit m)2/ped；
ρp: passenger flow density) represents the per-capita area, and SA represents security information;
the most efficient index is the average time spent by passengers at the nodes, and EF represents the efficiency of passenger flow through the escalator, which obviously means that the system is more efficient as the time spent is shorter. The efficiency information EF of the invention is calculated according to formula V,
EF＝e-ET/MT V
where MT is the maximum tolerated elapsed time (unit s: typically taken as 300s) for the passenger at the node, and ET represents the average elapsed time for the passenger.
For rail transit transportation, operation safety is the central importance, and has not had safety, and rail transit transportation also loses value, and the automatic escalator is one of the node of passenger flow gathering in the rail transit hub, and if the automatic escalator broke down, can produce very big influence to passenger's safety and passenger transport efficiency.
The following embodiment adopts AnyLogic software simulation modeling based on a social force model, establishes a three-dimensional building structure model of a traffic junction of a north square of the north station of Chongqing and a layout model of internal service facilities according to construction drawing data of the north station of Chongqing, and simulates to obtain passenger flow dynamic data required by risk assessment.
The station in the north of Chongqing is a comprehensive transportation hub integrating various transportation modes such as railways, rail transit, coaches, buses and the like, the station in the north of Chongqing is divided into two squares in the south and the north, the side station rooms in the south and the north are connected through an elevated station room, the main station entering and exiting modes are that the station entering and exiting from the top to the bottom are main, the station entering and exiting from the bottom to the bottom are auxiliary, the total scale of the station rooms is 9 ten thousand square meters, the total number of 5 layers of buildings is 223 meters in surface width, the elevated station room enters 375 meters, and the highest point of the building is. After the scale of the station room is increased, the existing south square and the north square are organically connected through the urban corridor which is 24 meters wide under the station room so as to facilitate evacuation of tourists in all directions, and a plan view and a three-dimensional view of a traffic hub of the north station of Chongqing are respectively shown in fig. 10 and fig. 11.
With the continuous opening of urban rail transit lines, rail transit of the northbound station of Chongqing includes urban rail transit line No. 3, line No. 4, line No. 10 and loop line. Therefore, a large amount of passenger flows are gathered in the transportation hub in time periods such as work rush hours, holidays, spring transportation holidays and the like every day, impact is brought to service facilities in the transportation hub, and in order to reflect the influence of escalator faults on the passenger flows in the transportation hub, the embodiment simulates the passenger flows in the peak time periods of the northwest Chongqing station to carry out simulation.
The passenger transportation organization process corresponding to the passengers getting in the bus in the northern square of the Chongqing station generally comprises the steps of passenger arrival, ticket purchasing (getting) for passengers, security check, station entry, waiting, ticket checking and bus taking. According to the embodiment, the risk influence of the escalator faults on passenger flow is researched, and according to literature records and field research statistics, 20 escalators are arranged on a passenger entry flow line in the northern square of Chongqing station, 4 escalators are respectively arranged on a waiting flow line, and 16 escalators are respectively arranged on an upper flow line. Two escalators on different flow lines (the escalator in the waiting flow line is marked as A, the escalator corresponding to the waiting flow line is marked as A1, the escalator in the boarding flow line is marked as B, and the escalator corresponding to the going flow line is marked as B1) are selected and respectively shown in figures 12 and 13.
Simulation results of different influences of escalator faults on two different flow lines on passenger flow risks are simulated by using AnyLogic software, and simulation data are counted, as shown in figures 14, 15 and 7.
TABLE 7 statistics of time consumed by escalator fault passenger flow through stairs
The failure consequence values C of the two escalators can be obtained by combining simulation data (see table 8), failure probability (see table 5, and P is 0.6 because D is unqualified) and formulas 4-3, 4-4 and 4-51、C2And a risk consequence value R1、R2。
TABLE 8 simulation data statistics
C1＝0.2292 R1＝0.1375
C2＝0.4010 R2＝0.2406
According to the case analysis, when the escalator is in failure respectively, according to the risk level table, the risk level of the escalator positioned on the boarding flow line is 'medium', and the escalator positioned on the waiting flow line cannot instantaneously gather due to the constraint action of the security check facility, so that the risk level is 'low', and the risk consequence of the escalator positioned on the boarding flow line is more serious.
According to the relationship between the voltage unbalance and the failure rate of the motor, the proportional relationship shown in the following table 9 can be established.
TABLE 9 relationship between characteristic quantity values and risk consequence values and risk grades of escalators
As can be seen from the above table analysis, in order to make the risk level of the escalator on the boarding flow line lower, the threshold of the controllable risk source (voltage unbalance degree) is not more than 1.8541%, while for the escalator on the waiting flow line, the threshold of the controllable risk source (voltage unbalance degree) is not more than 2.2677%, so the escalator on the boarding flow line is more important in the maintenance strategy, and the important maintenance and the advanced maintenance are required.
The embodiments of the present invention are described as the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and not to limit the scope of the present invention, and various modifications and improvements of the technical solution of the present invention by those skilled in the art should fall within the protection scope defined by the claims of the present invention without departing from the spirit of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A dynamic risk analysis method for an escalator of a rail transit junction based on characteristic quantity is disclosed, wherein the escalator comprises a traction motor and a mechanical truss which are fixed together, and the method is characterized by comprising the following steps of modeling a fault risk chain of the escalator caused by voltage unbalance:
s1, constructing a fault propagation chain: selecting a traction motor as an object, and establishing a fault propagation chain of the escalator; the fault propagation chain comprises in sequence: the escalator mechanical structure failure and escalator failure shutdown caused by motor failure shutdown or impact force of the motor on the truss due to abnormal rotation of the electronic rotor are caused by unbalanced stator voltage, abnormal vibration of the traction motor, abnormal rotation of the electronic rotor or increased impact force of the motor on the truss;
s2, constructing a risk propagation chain: the method comprises the steps that voltage unbalance is used as a risk source of a risk transmission chain, the influence of the voltage unbalance on the fault rate of the escalator is calculated, and the risk transmission chain of the escalator is established;
the risk propagation chain comprises in sequence: the motor represented by the voltage unbalance degree, the vibration speed and the electronic rotor rotation abnormity or the vibration acceleration of the stator represented by the voltage unbalance degree increases the impact force on the truss, and the failure rate P of the traction motor1The failure rate P of the characterized motor due to failure or truss2The represented escalator mechanical structure faults and the represented escalator fault rate are stopped;
s3, calculating the fault probability of the risk propagation chain: calculating the fault probability P of the risk propagation chain according to formula I,
P＝1-(1-P1)*(1-P2) I
P1indicating traction motor failure rate, P2Indicating the truss failure rate.
2. The method of claim 1, further comprising: the processing steps of the risk consequences of the escalator caused by the voltage unbalance are as follows:
s4, calculating a fault consequence value: taking the safety SA and the high efficiency EF as the indexes of passenger flow risk, carrying out risk consequence analysis on the escalator of the traffic hub, and calculating according to a formula II to obtain a fault consequence value C;
C＝ρ1*(1-SA)+ρ2*(1-EF) II
where ρ is1Weight, ρ, representing security SA2Weights representing efficient EF
S5, calculating a risk consequence value: the risk consequence value R is used to calculate a risk rating, the risk consequence value R is calculated according to formula III,
R＝P*C III
in the formula, R represents a risk consequence value, P represents the failure probability of a risk propagation chain, and C represents a failure consequence value.
3. The method of claim 2, further comprising:
s6, risk early warning step: according to the voltage unbalance and the fault rate P of the traction motor1The relation between the characteristic quantity value and the risk consequence value R as well as the relation between the characteristic quantity value and the risk grade is established, after the voltage unbalance threshold is set according to different early warning purposes, the voltage unbalance is monitored, and a system outputs a risk early warning signal.
4. The method of claim 3, further comprising:
s7, risk level setting: the risk classes are classified into 5 classes according to the risk consequence value R,
when R is greater than 0.4, judging that the risk is very high;
when R is more than 0.3 and less than or equal to 0.4, the risk is judged to be higher;
when R is more than 0.2 and less than or equal to 0.3, the risk is judged to be moderate;
when R is more than 0.1 and less than or equal to 0.2, the risk is judged to be lower;
when R is less than or equal to 0.1, the risk is judged to be low.
5. The method according to claim 2, characterized in that the security information SA is calculated according to formula IV and the efficiency information EF is calculated according to formula V,
wherein SmThe average area of the people when the node is congested is expressed by ES, and the unit is m2/ped；
ρpSA represents security information for passenger flow density;
EF＝e-ET/MT V
where MT is the maximum tolerated elapsed time of the passenger at the node and ET represents the average elapsed time of the passenger.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein the voltage imbalance information is calculated according to formula VI;
wherein VUF denotes a voltage unbalance;
representing complex or phasor forms of positive and negative sequence voltages, respectively, wherein
Respectively in the form of three-phase voltage complex of a winding; operator
Multiplying the b-phase by a means that the b-phase is rotated 120 ° counterclockwise, and similarly, a2 means the b-phase is rotated 240 ° counterclockwise, and 1+ a + a2 is 0.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the risk propagation chain of step S2, the traction motor failure rate P1The characterized risk analysis method for the shutdown of the motor due to the fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating a direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and a motor vibration value;
s2.2, calculating a direct proportion relation of the fault rate of the motor along with the vibration value of the motor;
and S2.3, calculating the direct proportion relation between the voltage unbalance and the motor fault rate.
8. The method of claim 1, wherein in the risk propagation chain of step S2, the truss failure rate P is2The characterized risk analysis method for the escalator mechanical structure fault comprises the following steps:
s2.1, calculating a change relation between the safety coefficient and the vertical acceleration of the motor;
s2.2, calculating a relation between the safety coefficient and the change of the truss fault rate;
and S2.3, calculating the change relation between the vertical acceleration and the failure rate of the truss.
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