CN109816252A - Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning and device - Google Patents
Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning and device Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to Safety of Tailings Dam system engineering field, especially a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning and device.The present invention differentiates the attribute of various risks variable data by science, the information such as time, space and the function embodied according to data, it is divided into important steady-state variable, basic guarantee variable and crucial dynamic variable three categories, risk discriminant approach is taken respectively to different classes of variable, the risk relevant information that comprehensive utilization variable data is contained to the maximum extent, quantitatively calculate Tailings Dam Risk-warning numerical value, according to the corresponding different brackets of Risk-warning numerical value, the Risk-warning signal of corresponding grade is sent.This method uses round-the-clock real time monitoring to crucial dynamic variable, carries out real-time change tracing analysis, continue to the evolutionary process of catastrophe, timely monitor.Spatialization, time domain, systematism are carried out to risk variable data, data classification adheres to separately, orderly function by different level, realizes data management data, deepens artificial intelligence.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Safety of Tailings Dam system engineering field, especially a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning
And device.
Background technique
The necessary facility that normally produces of metal mine is maintained as the place of stockpiling metal or non-metal mine industrial residue,
Tailings Dam is the major hazard source with the artificial mud-rock flow of high potential energy, once dam break occurs, it will to the life wealth of downstream resident
It produces safety and environment causes to seriously threaten.Recently as the rapid development of industry, the increasing number of domestic and international Tailings Dam is adjoint
Taking place frequently for dam-break accident, the safety evaluation of Tailings Dam and Risk-warning are a urgent problems to be solved.
Safety assessment of tailing reservoir and Risk-warning should based on the safe condition for studying tailing dam and its auxiliary construction,
To evaluate the security level of Tailings Dam, the danger source in operational process is reduced and controls, reaching reduces security risk, prevention thing
Therefore occur, the target for keeping reservoir area periphery stable.There are many factor for influencing Safety of Tailings Dam operation, including Tailings Dam stockpiling system
System, Tailings Dam flood drainage system, tailings storage backwater tapered system, Safety of Tailings Dam management and Tailings Dam once occur caused by dam break
Harm etc., each subsystem contains the security performance that several indexs carry out joint effect Tailings Dam entirety again, this is one
Typical non-linear, coupling complication system.
The inventors discovered that currently used Tailings Dam Risk-warning scheme is mainly from traditional methods of risk assessment,
Single index or a few index are used, the conventional method judged according to actually detected data and threshold value comparison, this
It is the assessment to single index, does not account for the multiple information that each achievement data is contained, especially each index institute body
Existing time, space and functional information is necessary resource of each index of research to Tailings Dam Risk-warning, it is difficult to Tailings Dam
Risk carries out comprehensive quantitative evaluation.Meanwhile Tailings Dam risk is dynamically, only using real-time, accurate and quantitative
Evaluation method could effectively control risk, issue warning signal in time, convenient for taking risk prevention system measure.To sum up, current tail
The deficiencies of mine library risk data use of information degree is low, risk is difficult to quantitative assessment, early warning real-time is weak.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to overcome the above-mentioned deficiency in the presence of the prior art, provides and a kind of become Tailings Dam risk
Amount carries out scientific classification according to time, space, functional attributes, provides the comprehensive wind of Tailings Dam of the use of information degree of monitoring data
Danger quantifies method for early warning.
In order to achieve the above-mentioned object of the invention, the present invention provides following technical schemes:
A kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
Tailings Dam risk variable is divided into steady-state variable, ensures variable and dynamic variable by step A；The steady-state variable
Meet variable quantity of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension less than the first predetermined threshold, and single change
It measures related to Risk Results；The guarantee variable meets change of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension
Change amount is less than the second predetermined threshold, and the set of several variables is related to Risk Results；The dynamic variable meets variable data
The presentation dynamic that changes with time and random character, unitary variant are related to risk structure；
Step B obtains steady-state variable k1,k2,…,ki,…,knThe judgement of 0-1 two-value is carried out to the steady-state variable, 0 is corresponding
Variable high risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates steady-state variable early-warning parameters
It obtains and ensures variable and carry out risk numerical value calibration, obtain risk numerical value p1,p2,…,pi,…,pn, fractional value pair
High risk is answered, big numerical value corresponds to low-risk, calculates and ensures variable early-warning parametersWherein AiFor risk indicator piIt is right
The Risk rated ratio answered；
Real-time monitoring dynamic variable d1,d2,…,di,…,dn, the judgement of the section 0-1 is carried out to the dynamic variable, 0 is corresponding
Variable high risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates dynamic variable early-warning parameters
Step C according to the steady-state variable early-warning parameters K, ensures variable early-warning parameters P and dynamic variable early-warning parameters D
Calculation risk quantifies early warning value E=K × P × D；
Step D sends pre-warning signal according to the quantifying risk early warning value E.
Wherein, the scheduled time and/or scheduled space can be wanted according to Tailings Dam early warning object and early warning situation
Ask adjustment.The steady-state variable and risk have high correlation, keep data relatively stable in opposite space-time unique,
Period of waves is relatively long, can work to Risk Governance and leave time enough surplus and spatial margin.The steady-state variable
Once failure, i.e. 0-1 determines that result is 0, differentiates that danger source is in high risk state.In specific embodiment, storage capacity, dam
The variables such as height, downstream environment, anti-flood drainage system, water seepage drainage facility, dam body status are set as steady-state variable, the standard that 0-1 determines
For Tailings Dam design requirement.
The guarantee variable and risk have obvious correlation, typically exhibits the set and risk of such variable data
Relationship is more prominent.
Dynamic, stochastic regime is presented in the dynamic variable data, and has direct relation or linear relationship with risk,
For the dynamic variable once failing, danger source is in high risk state.Special emphasis is the object tailing as monitoring and early warning
After library enters early warning space-time, the key effect of this class variable is dramatically increased, it is necessary to control the data variation of dynamic variable in real time
Situation.
Preferably, in step B, when carrying out the judgement of the section 0-1 to the dynamic variable, including at least one buffers decision threshold
Value, the buffering decision threshold is between (0,1).Due to dynamic variable for high risk triggering have top when
Between sensibility, the monitoring numerical value of the dynamic variable between low-risk and high risk there are large range of waving interval, into
The buffering decision threshold is arranged to the waving interval in one step, carries out more fine dynamic variable detected value section distribution and draws
Point, be conducive to before high risk pre-warning signal issues, issue pre-tip signal for specific people, is subsequent high risk
Sufficient time margin is stopped in pre-warning signal prevention and control.
In specific embodiment, the dynamic variable is dry beach length.It is divided into four using three bundle of lines Tailings Dam risks
A state.Three lines: adjusting the dry bank line of flood, the dry bank line of warning, dangerous dry bank line, sets the first threshold for the dry bank line length of the tune flood
The dry bank line length of the warning is set second threshold by value, when the dry beach length of real time monitoring is greater than the first threshold, then
Dry beach length dynamic variable value is 1；The dry beach length of real time monitoring is less than the first threshold and is greater than the second threshold
When, then doing beach length dynamic variable value is 0.7, and it is fixed to be embodied in the risk for the risk contribution of the dynamic variable at this time
It measures in early warning value E=K × P × D；When the dry beach length of real time monitoring is less than the second threshold, then beach length dynamic variable is done
Value is 0, directly triggering Risk-warning signal.
Preferably, further include step E after step D, into after alert status, continue dynamic variable described in real-time monitoring
d1,d2,…,di,…,dnAt least one of in, draw at least one described dynamic variable versus time curve.
Alternatively, the dynamic variable be tailing reservoir level, dam crest to water level superelevation, do beach length, saturation,
One or more in displacement structure.
Preferably, it is water level correlative into the dynamic variable for after alert status, continuing real-time monitoring, draws the water level
Correlative versus time curve.The water level correlative versus time curve is applied with APP or the side of WEB application
Formula is pushed to data terminal in real time, and amplitude, the vibration frequency of water level correlative described in current time are presented in visual form,
Convenient for obtaining the peak-peak and fluctuation situation of the water level correlative in time.
Alternatively, the water level correlative is the superelevation or dry beach length of water level, dam crest to water level.Due to doing beach
Slope angle can measure to obtain, and the same Tailings Dam can consider that the gradient is constant, do the triangle letter of beach length and superelevation
Number relationship can simplify as linear relationship.Based on the water level, superelevation or dry beach length, Tailings Dam can be quickly calculated
Interior water.
Preferably, step E further includes the time-domain differential and/or integral for calculating the water level correlative in real time.Pass through reality
When calculate water level correlative time-differential and integral, more can profoundly show variation tendency and the stage of water level correlative
Property result of variations, including but not limited to the instantaneous value of water level correlative, extreme value, increment change rate, increment change acceleration, time
Increment total amount in section.
Preferably, the difference of instantaneous charge for remittance and draining is calculated in real time according to the time-domain differential of the water level correlative, essence
The equilibrium state of instantaneous charge for remittance and draining will definitely be gone out.For example, the instantaneous delta of water level is positive, then reflect that instantaneous charge for remittance amount is greater than wink
When displacement, risk present increase situation；The instantaneous delta of water level is negative, then reflects that instantaneous charge for remittance amount is less than instantaneous displacement,
Risk, which is presented, reduces situation.It should be readily apparent to one skilled in the art that the meter of the calculating conclusion and water level of superelevation or dry beach length
It is opposite to calculate conclusion.According to the incremental computations of water level correlative as a result, in conjunction with Tailings Dam plane distribution situation, calculate in real time instantaneous
The increment of the instantaneous water of the difference of charge for remittance and draining, i.e. Tailings Dam.
Further, according to the difference and instantaneous water level amount of the instantaneous charge for remittance and draining, it is maximum that Tailings Dam is calculated in real time
Allow rainfall.According to the increment of the instantaneous water of Tailings Dam and instantaneous water, the Peak sink of design scheme combining is counted in real time
Calculate the maximum allowable rainfall of Tailings Dam.It is notified in advance according to the real-time weather of the maximum allowable rainfall and Tailings Dam part region
Breath, can for subsequent risk lasting early warning and timely risk prevention system measure strive for abundance time margin.
Preferably, according to the time volume integration of the water level correlative calculate in designated time period in real time charge for remittance cumulant or
Cumulant is drained, the security postures for the Gan Tan that is accurately ranked, sub- dam provide foundation.Product of the water level correlative within the controlled period
Point, in conjunction with the planar distribution situation of Tailings Dam, the water increment in the controlled period that can calculate Tailings Dam in real time is tired
Accumulated amount.Water buildup of increments amount is positive, then reflects in the controlled period that net increase situation is presented in water, hereafter the dry beach in period,
The security risk on sub- dam increases；Water buildup of increments amount is negative, then reflects that net discharge situation is presented in water in the controlled period, this
The security risk reduction of the Gan Tan in period, sub- dam afterwards.
Preferably, in step A, the set that the steady-state variable is constituted is the subset for the set that the guarantee variable is constituted；
Or there are intersections with the set for ensureing variable composition for the set of the steady-state variable composition.Although the steady-state variable is adopted
With mandatory 0-1 decision procedure, the single class variable differentiates that conclusion is directly related with risk.But it is low for being in
It is divided into the set for ensureing variable by this class variable of risk status simultaneously, participates in the guarantee variable early warning ginseng
The calculating of number P, can further increase the utilization rate for risk variable data, effectively improve the accuracy of Risk-warning.
Preferably, in step B, real-time monitoring dynamic variable d1,d2,…,di,…,dnIf at least one described dynamic becomes
The instantaneous rate of change and/or transient change acceleration of amount are more than specified threshold, then directly transmit pre-warning signal.Due to dynamic variable
The time attribute occurred with risk is closely bound up, when the dynamic variable does not set out the low-risk threshold value of 0-1 differentiation also, wink
When change rate and transient change acceleration often antedating response variation tendency.Pass through the implementing monitoring to variation tendency correlative
And calculating, the sending time of Risk-warning signal can be shifted to an earlier date to the maximum extent.
Preferably, according to the corresponding different brackets of Risk-warning numerical value E, the Risk-warning signal of corresponding grade is sent.
Another aspect of the present invention provides a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk and quantifies prior-warning device, including at least one processing
Device, and the memory being connect at least one described processor communication；The memory be stored with can by it is described at least one
The instruction that processor executes, described instruction is executed by least one described processor, so that at least one described processor can
Above-described Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention:
Tailings Dam integrated risk provided by the invention quantifies method for early warning and differentiates various risks variable data by science
Attribute, the information such as time, space and function embodied according to data are divided into important steady-state variable, basic guarantee becomes
Amount and crucial dynamic variable three categories, take risk discriminant approach to different classes of variable respectively, to the maximum extent comprehensive benefit
The risk relevant information contained with variable data quantitatively calculates Tailings Dam Risk-warning numerical value, according to Risk-warning numerical value pair
The different brackets answered sends the Risk-warning signal of corresponding grade.
The present invention has fully considered the importance of crucial dynamic variable after pre-warning signal sending, uses to crucial dynamic variable
Round-the-clock real time monitoring, to crucial dynamic variable carry out real-time change tracing analysis, to the evolutionary process of catastrophe carry out continue and
When monitoring.
The present invention carries out spatialization, time domain, systematism to many risk variables of Tailings Dam, referred to as " three change ".After three change
Data be able to enter classification, adhere to separately, orderly function by different level, realize data management data, deepen artificial intelligence.
Detailed description of the invention:
Fig. 1 is that 1 Tailings Dam integrated risk of the embodiment of the present invention quantifies method for early warning flow chart；
Fig. 2 is that the dry beach length of the embodiment of the present invention 1 implements monitoring data curve graph.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to test example and specific embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.But this should not be understood
It is all that this is belonged to based on the technology that the content of present invention is realized for the scope of the above subject matter of the present invention is limited to the following embodiments
The range of invention.
Embodiment 1
The present embodiment provides a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risks to quantify method for early warning, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
Tailings Dam risk variable is divided into steady-state variable, ensures variable and dynamic variable by step A；The steady-state variable
Meet variable quantity of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension less than the first predetermined threshold, and single change
It measures related to Risk Results；The guarantee variable meets change of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension
Change amount is less than the second predetermined threshold, and the set of several variables is related to Risk Results；The dynamic variable meets variable data
The presentation dynamic that changes with time and random character, unitary variant are related to risk structure；
Step B obtains steady-state variable k1,k2,…,ki,…,kn0-1 judgement, 0 pair of dependent variable are carried out to the steady-state variable
High risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates steady-state variable early-warning parameters
It obtains and ensures variable and carry out risk numerical value calibration, obtain risk numerical value p1,p2,…,pi,…,pn, fractional value pair
High risk is answered, big numerical value corresponds to low-risk, calculates and ensures variable early-warning parametersWherein AiFor risk indicator piIt is right
The Risk rated ratio answered；
Real-time monitoring dynamic variable d1,d2,…,di,…,dn, 0-1 judgement, 0 pair of dependent variable are carried out to the dynamic variable
High risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates dynamic variable early-warning parametersAnd real-time waveform is carried out to the dynamic variable
Analysis；
Step C according to the steady-state variable early-warning parameters K, ensures variable early-warning parameters P and dynamic variable early-warning parameters D
Calculation risk quantifies early warning value E=K × P × D；
Step D sends pre-warning signal according to the quantifying risk early warning value E.
6 indexs such as storage capacity, height of dam, downstream environment, anti-flood drainage system, water seepage drainage facility, dam body status are chosen as stable state
Property index steady-state variable, according to design scheme carry out 0-1 judgement, decision process and determine result it is as follows:
1 steady-state variable 0-1 of table determines
Steady-state variable early-warning parameters
The guarantee variable and risk have obvious correlation, typically exhibits the set and risk of such variable data
Relationship is more prominent.The risk numerical value calibration for ensureing variable and carrying out the section 1-9 is obtained, risk numerical value p is obtained1,p2,…,
pi,…,pn, the physical significance of risk numerical value is the relative risk index for ensureing variable current state relative to design scheme, such as
Height of dam is required to be lower than 200 meters design scheme, then less than 30 meters values 9 of height of dam；30~60 meters, value 6.3；60~100 meters,
Value 3.6；100~200 meters, value 1.
As shown in table 2, it calculates and ensures variable early-warning parametersWherein AiFor risk indicator piCorresponding risk
Weight.Risk rated ratio AiCorrelation according to guarantee variable and Risk Results in previous Tailings Dam Risk-warning engineering practice
Statistical analysis obtains.
Table 2 ensures that variable randomization determines
Dynamic, stochastic regime is presented in the dynamic variable data, and has direct relation or linear relationship with risk,
For the dynamic variable once failing, danger source is in high risk state.It is divided into four states using three bundle of lines Tailings Dam risks.
Three lines: adjusting the dry bank line of flood, the dry bank line of warning, dangerous dry bank line, first threshold is set by the dry bank line length of the tune flood, by institute
It states the dry bank line length of warning and is set as second threshold, when the dry beach length of real time monitoring is greater than the first threshold, then dry beach is long
Spending dynamic variable value is 1；When the dry beach length of real time monitoring is less than the first threshold and is greater than the second threshold, then do
Beach length dynamic variable value is 0.7, and the risk contribution of the dynamic variable has been embodied in the quantifying risk early warning at this time
In value E=K × P × D；When the dry beach length of real time monitoring is less than the second threshold, then doing beach length dynamic variable value is
0, directly triggering Risk-warning signal.
Wherein, adjusting the dry bank line of flood is to meet anti-row through flood routing according to high score satellite photo and Tailings Dam health account
The dry beach length of big vast demand；Guarding against dry bank line is reservoir level continuous rise in heavy rain, and dry beach length gradually becomes smaller possibility
Lead to unrestrained dam accident, meets the dry beach length of Tailings Dam and downstream masses Emergency Preparedness time；Dangerous dry bank line is code requirement
Respective level Tailings Dam minimum dry beach length.The relationship of three are as follows: beach <beach tune Hong Gan is done in the dry beach < warning of danger, dry with three
Tailings Dam is divided into " blood orange champac " four risk zones by bank line, and highest risk status is " red ", i.e., dry beach length is less than danger
Dry beach length, administrative department should start emergency preplan, withdraw downstream personnel and critical facility equipment, closing relative influence region；
Risk status is " orange ", i.e., dry beach length is in dangerous dry beach and guards against between dry beach, and administrative department should pay much attention to, and do at any time
It is good to prepare starting emergency；Risk status is " Huang ", i.e., dry beach length, which is in, guards against dry beach and adjust between the beach Hong Gan, enterprise watch
Member should pay close attention to SEA LEVEL VARIATION at any time；Blue region is safety zone, corresponding to adjust the beach Hong Gan or more.As shown in Fig. 2, for using Beidou position
It sets service system and three lines, four area's mode realizes that length of dry sand of tailings reservoir changes real-time monitoring result figure.
Further include step E after step D, into after alert status, continues to do beach length described in real-time monitoring, draw dry
Beach length versus time curve.The dry beach length versus time curve is in a manner of APP application or WEB application
It is pushed to data terminal in real time, amplitude, the vibration frequency for doing beach length described in current time are presented in visual form, is convenient for
The peak-peak and fluctuation situation of the dry beach length are obtained in time.
Since dry beach slope angle can measure to obtain, the same Tailings Dam can consider that the gradient is constant, and it is long to do beach
Degree and the trigonometric function relationship of superelevation can simplify as linear relationship.Based on the dry beach length, Tailings Dam is quickly calculated
Interior water.
Step E further includes the time-domain differential and/or integral for calculating the dry beach length in real time.It is dry by calculating in real time
The time-differential and integral of beach length, more can profoundly show dry beach length variation tendency and phasic Chang as a result,
Instantaneous value, extreme value, increment change rate, increment variation acceleration, the increment in the period of including but not limited to dry beach length are total
Amount.
The difference for calculating instantaneous charge for remittance and draining in real time according to the time-domain differential of the dry beach length precisely obtains instantaneous
The equilibrium state of charge for remittance and draining.The instantaneous delta of dry beach length is positive, then reflects that instantaneous charge for remittance amount is less than instantaneous displacement, wind
Danger, which is presented, reduces situation；The instantaneous delta of dry beach length is negative, then reflects that instantaneous charge for remittance amount is greater than instantaneous displacement, risk is presented
Increase situation.According to the incremental computations of dry beach length as a result, in conjunction with Tailings Dam plane distribution situation, in real time calculate in real time calculate
The difference of instantaneous charge for remittance and draining, the i.e. increment of the instantaneous water of Tailings Dam.
Further, according to the difference and instantaneous water level amount of the instantaneous charge for remittance and draining, it is maximum that Tailings Dam is calculated in real time
Allow rainfall.According to the increment of the instantaneous water of Tailings Dam and instantaneous water, the Peak sink of design scheme combining is counted in real time
Calculate the maximum allowable rainfall of Tailings Dam.It is notified in advance according to the real-time weather of the maximum allowable rainfall and Tailings Dam part region
Breath, can for subsequent risk lasting early warning and timely risk prevention system measure strive for abundance time margin.
Charge for remittance cumulant or draining accumulation in designated time period are calculated in real time according to the time volume integration of the dry beach length
Amount, the security postures for the Gan Tan that is accurately ranked, sub- dam provide foundation.Dry integral of the beach length within the controlled period, in conjunction with tail
The planar distribution situation in mine library can calculate the water buildup of increments amount in the controlled period of Tailings Dam in real time.Water
Buildup of increments amount is positive, then reflects in the controlled period that net increase situation is presented in water, hereafter the Gan Tan in period, sub- dam safety
Risk increases；Water buildup of increments amount is negative, then reflects that net discharge situation is presented in water in the controlled period, hereafter period is dry
The security risk reduction on beach, sub- dam.
In step A, the set that the steady-state variable is constituted is the subset for the set that the guarantee variable is constituted；Or it is described
There are intersections for the set that the set that steady-state variable is constituted is constituted with the guarantee variable, such as storage capacity, height of dam.Although the stable state becomes
Amount uses mandatory 0-1 decision procedure, and the single class variable differentiates that conclusion is directly related with risk.But for locating
In this class variable of low-risk state, it is divided into simultaneously in the set for ensureing variable, it is pre- to participate in guarantor's quantitative change amount
The calculating of alert parameter P, can further increase the utilization rate for risk variable data, effectively improve the accurate of Risk-warning
Degree.
In step B, real-time monitoring dynamic variable d1,d2,…,di,…,dnIf at least one described dynamic variable is instantaneous
Change rate and/or transient change acceleration are more than specified threshold, then directly transmit pre-warning signal.Since dynamic variable and risk are sent out
Raw time attribute is closely bound up, when the dynamic variable does not trigger the low-risk threshold value of 0-1 differentiation also, instantaneous rate of change
With transient change acceleration often antedating response variation tendency.By implementing monitoring to variation tendency correlative and calculating,
The sending time of Risk-warning signal can be shifted to an earlier date to the maximum extent.
According to the corresponding different brackets of Risk-warning numerical value E, the Risk-warning signal of corresponding grade is sent.Comprehensive and quantitative wind
Danger (E) evaluation is mainly made of the evaluation of above-mentioned three parts, comprehensive quantitative evaluation result E=K × P × D, and its risk assessment etc.
Grade is divided into 4 grades, wherein 0≤E < 3 are material risk；3≤E < 5 are greater risk；5≤E < 6 are average risk；6≤E≤9 are low
Risk.As E < 5, analysis sends Risk-warning signal in real time.
The case where for E < 5, specifically analyzes the reason for causing Risk-warning value relatively low again, takes respectively different types of pre-
Alert measure, the Risk-warning value E for caused by due to the steady-state variable is relatively low, issues and forces reform advice, for institute
It is relatively low to state Risk-warning value caused by dynamic variable reason, timely enters alert status, formulates emergency preplan.
It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that: realize that all or part of the steps of above method embodiment can pass through program
Relevant hardware is instructed to complete, program above-mentioned can store in computer-readable storage medium, which is executing
When, execute step including the steps of the foregoing method embodiments；And storage medium above-mentioned includes: movable storage device, read-only memory
The various media that can store program code such as (Read Only Memory, ROM), magnetic or disk.
When the above-mentioned integrated unit of the present invention be realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and as the sale of independent product or
In use, also can store in a computer readable storage medium.Based on this understanding, the skill of the embodiment of the present invention
Substantially the part that contributes to existing technology can be embodied in the form of software products art scheme in other words, the calculating
Machine software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are used so that a computer equipment (can be individual
Computer, server or network equipment etc.) execute all or part of each embodiment the method for the present invention.And it is aforementioned
Storage medium include: the various media that can store program code such as movable storage device, ROM, magnetic or disk.
The above, the only detailed description of the specific embodiment of the invention, rather than limitation of the present invention.The relevant technologies
The technical staff in field is not in the case where departing from principle and range of the invention, various replacements, modification and the improvement made
It should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies method for early warning characterized by comprising
Tailings Dam risk variable is divided into steady-state variable, ensures variable and dynamic variable by step A；The steady-state variable meets
Variable quantity of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension less than the first predetermined threshold, and unitary variant with
Risk Results are related；The guarantee variable meets variable quantity of the variable data in scheduled time range and/or spatial dimension
Less than the second predetermined threshold, and the set of several variables is related to Risk Results；The dynamic variable meets variable data at any time
Between variation present dynamic and random character, unitary variant it is related to risk structure；
Step B obtains steady-state variable k1,k2,…,ki,…,knThe judgement of 0-1 two-value, 0 pair of dependent variable are carried out to the steady-state variable
High risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates steady-state variable early-warning parameters
It obtains and ensures variable and carry out risk numerical value calibration, obtain risk numerical value p1,p2,…,pi,…,pn, fractional value corresponds to high wind
Danger, big numerical value correspond to low-risk, calculate and ensure variable early-warning parametersWherein AiFor risk indicator piIt is corresponding
Risk rated ratio；
Real-time monitoring dynamic variable d1,d2,…,di,…,dn, the judgement of the section 0-1,0 pair of dependent variable height are carried out to the dynamic variable
Risk, 1 corresponding low-risk, calculates dynamic variable early-warning parameters
Step C according to the steady-state variable early-warning parameters K, ensures that variable early-warning parameters P and dynamic variable early-warning parameters D is calculated
Quantifying risk early warning value E=K × P × D；
Step D sends pre-warning signal according to the quantifying risk early warning value E.
2. method for early warning according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in step B, carry out the area 0-1 to the dynamic variable
Between when determining, including at least one buffers decision threshold, and the buffering decision threshold is between (0,1).
3. method for early warning according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: further include step E after step D, into early warning shape
After state, continue dynamic variable d described in real-time monitoring1,d2,…,di,…,dnAt least one of in, it is described dynamic to draw at least one
State variable versus time curve.
4. method for early warning according to claim 3, it is characterised in that: in step E, into after alert status, continue real-time
The dynamic variable of monitoring is water level correlative, draws the water level correlative versus time curve.
5. method for early warning according to claim 4, it is characterised in that: step E further includes calculating the water level correlation in real time
The time-domain differential of amount, according to the time-domain differential of the water level correlative calculate in real time instantaneous charge for remittance and draining difference and/
Or integral.
6. method for early warning according to claim 4, it is characterised in that: real according to the time-domain differential of the water level correlative
When calculate the difference of instantaneous charge for remittance and draining；And/or when according to the time volume integration of the water level correlative calculating specified in real time
Between charge for remittance cumulant or draining cumulant in section.
7. according to the described in any item method for early warning of claim 4-6, it is characterised in that: the water level correlative is water level, dam
Push up the superelevation or dry beach length of water level.
8. method for early warning according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: real-time monitoring dynamic variable d in step B1,d2,…,
di,…,dnIf the change rate and/or variation acceleration of at least one described dynamic variable are more than specified threshold, directly transmit
Pre-warning signal.
9. method for early warning according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: in step A, the set that the steady-state variable is constituted is
The subset of the set for ensureing variable composition；Or the collection gathered with the guarantee variable composition that the steady-state variable is constituted
There are intersections for conjunction.
10. a kind of Tailings Dam integrated risk quantifies prior-warning device, which is characterized in that including at least one processor, and with institute
State the memory of at least one processor communication connection；The memory is stored with can be by the execution of at least one described processor
Instruction, described instruction is executed by least one described processor, so that at least one described processor is able to carry out claim 1
To method described in any one of 9.
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