CN109725371A - Based on South China's typhoon of low frequency flow field figure and the prediction technique of heavy rain - Google Patents
Based on South China's typhoon of low frequency flow field figure and the prediction technique of heavy rain Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application discloses a kind of based on South China's typhoon of low frequency flow field figure and the prediction technique of heavy rain, for prediction technique for predicting in advance south China regional station wind and heavy rain within 10-30 days, prediction technique includes: that key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain is determined on low frequency flow field figure；Low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain in analysis of key region；Based on low frequency system feature, prediction model is established.The application can shift to an earlier date the typhoon and heavy rain of 30 days prediction South Chinas.
Description
Technical field
This application involves Heavy Rain of Typhoon electric powder predictions, more particularly to a kind of South China based on low frequency flow field figure
The prediction technique of typhoon and heavy rain.
Background technique
The 1980-1990 age, domestic meteorologist to the propagation of atmosphere low-frequency oscillation, entity, mechanism, feature and its with
ENSO and the connection of monsoon etc. have done numerous studies, it is believed that atmosphere low-frequency oscillation in generally existing 10-90 days is existing in atmosphere
As.Low-frequency oscillation is an important component of atmospheric circulation, it is not only present in the torrid zone, and with existing in middle high latitude
Area has global.
In recent years, Numerical Forecast Technology achieves significant progress, is business accuracy of weather forecast and the weight that timeliness improves
Want technical support.The development of the mesoscale numerical weather forecast mode of finite region significantly enhances the essence of short-range weather forecast
Degree, and effective Time effect forecast is extended to 10 days.When the development of Global vertical datum mode then makes available business weather forecast
Effect further extends, and the weather services center such as European Center for Medium Weather Forecasting and Japan, the U.S. and China can provide at present
The weather forecast product day by day of 10-15 days of Global vertical datum mode.It is well known, however, that reliable weather forecast timeliness
Theoretical limit be 2 weeks, there are still uncertainties for current 10 days or more numerical weather forecast products.
On the other hand, climatic prediction technology (such as climatic model) also increasingly develops, from the Short-term Climate Forecast in flood season to complete
The impact evaluation (such as IPCC) of ball climate warming all increasingly be unable to do without the application of climate system model.However, current weather mould
The minimum time resolution ratio of formula product is usually the moon (predictand is generally monthly mean temperature, monthly total precipitation etc.).
Clearly for synoptic process forecast in 30 days, still lacks Objective forecasting method at present and tool mentions for operational forecast
For support, it has also become " time gap " of " weather " and " weather " forecast linking is current not yet solution and urgently to be solved
Problem.
Low frequency synoptic forecasting method may be that preliminary " time gap " for solving " weather " and " weather " forecast linking is asked
One of approach of topic.
Since low frequency weather system is with 30-50 days periodicity, the geographical dependence on generation source ground and propagation path
Similitude and spatial continuity, time duration.Thus, based on low frequency weather map prediction low frequency weather system differentiation more than
Changed using conventional synoptic forecasting weather system much easier.Timeliness is also much longer.Pass through tracking low frequency weather system
It develops, achievees the purpose that track the life of weather system indirectly, disappears and develop, and the life of weather system, disappear and differentiation is various
The immediate cause that synoptic process occurs, this is exactly low frequency weather map advantage most prominent in operational forecast application
The imagination that extended peroid forecast is made of the characteristic of atmosphere low-frequency oscillation, early in generation nineteen ninety, Sun Guowu, He Jinhai etc.
It is proposed is forecast with atmosphere low-frequency oscillation to method-low frequency weather map (Over Qinghai-xizang Plateau low frequency variations of 30 days synoptic process
Research, 1991, Beijing Meteorology Publishing House), but fail to implement due to the limitation of the conditions such as data at that time.Until 2007
Year, " low frequency weather system forecasting technique and operational use " was classified as China Meteorological Administration's new technology development project, by 2008
To the service application at the Shanghai City weather of summer half year in 2017 center, forecast result shows.Heavy Precipitation can be pre- before 30 days
It quotes and comes (low frequency weather map extended peroid Process Forecasting method, 2014, Chinese environmental publishing house).China Meteorological Administration predicts mitigation
Department promotes low frequency synoptic forecasting method at national each province (city, area) weather center in 2014.But it is there is no at present based on low frequency day
The typhoon and rainstorm prediction method of gas figure.
Summary of the invention
The application propose it is a kind of based on South China's typhoon of low frequency flow field figure and the prediction technique of heavy rain, it is existing to solve
The problem of low frequency weather map is to typhoon and rainstorm prediction can not be based in technology.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the application proposes a kind of South China's typhoon based on low frequency flow field figure and heavy rain
Prediction technique, prediction technique is for predicting that prediction technique includes: to south China regional station wind and heavy rain in 10-30 days in advance
Key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain is determined on low frequency flow field figure；
Low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain in analysis of key region；
Based on low frequency system feature, prediction model is established.
Wherein, it is specifically wrapped the step of determining key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain on low frequency flow field figure
It includes:
Obtain the low frequency flow field figure in default historical interval period；
The low frequency cyclone C and under the premise of low frequency anticyclone A integrality in not destroying low frequency flow field figure, statistical analysis obtains
Key area.
Wherein, key area includes 9, and 1st area is West Pacific region (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 2 Qu Weizhong
The southern peninsula is regional (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E) to the South of South China, Mid-northern South China Sea, and 3rd area are India-Bay of Bengal area
(10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 70 ° of E-100 ° of E), 4th area are the East Sea to Japanese areas to the south (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 5 Qu Weichang
For river middle and lower reaches to southwest (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E), 6th area are north India to Qinghai-xizang Plateau Region (25 ° of N-
35 ° of N, 70 ° of E-120 ° of E), 7th area be China northeast and its to the east of ocean surface (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 8th area arrive for North China
Mongolia and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E), 9th area are Xinjiang and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 70 ° of E-
120°E)。
Wherein, the historical interval period is preset greater than 4 years.
Wherein, it is specifically wrapped the step of low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain in analysis of key region
It includes:
Obtain prediction day and its 150 days before low frequency flow field figures；
Analyze the mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area of low frequency flow field figure；
Count the cycle of activity of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area；
Analyze the low frequency anticyclone A of emphasis key area and the relationship of low frequency cyclone C and typhoon and heavy rain, emphasis key area packet
Include 1,2,4,7,9 areas；
Analyze low frequency air flow method.
Wherein, the step of obtaining prediction day and its 150 days before low frequency flow field figures includes: to be obtained by rolling calculation method
The low frequency flow field figure on the same day, rolling calculation method include being filtered meter toward being pushed forward total 150 days Grid datas with comprising the same day
It calculates, the filter value of each lattice point last day is taken to form the low frequency flow field figure on the same day.
Wherein, mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution include generation and the extinction time, shifting of low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C
Dynamic path, merging and disruptive features.
Wherein, cycle of activity is to be statisticallyd analyze by over the years and same period current year low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C period
The prediction Predominant period arrived.
Wherein, prediction model includes: in 1st area, 2nd area and 3rd area there are low frequency cyclone C, in 4th area there are low frequency anticyclone A,
7th area and 9th area exist simultaneously low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C, low frequency air-flow by east, 3rd area occur in 4 area south and 1 area the north
There is low frequency the south airflow, low frequency northern air-flow by east occur in 7th area, and low frequency northwesterly air-flow occur in 9th area.
The prediction technique of the South China's typhoon and heavy rain based on low frequency flow field figure of the application is first true in low frequency flow field figure
Determine the low frequency system feature in key area, then analysis of key region, prediction model is established based on low frequency system feature, so as to
Enough shift to an earlier date the typhoon and heavy rain of 30 days prediction South Chinas.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the process of one embodiment of prediction technique of South China typhoon and heavy rain of the application based on low frequency flow field figure
Schematic diagram；
Fig. 2 is the prediction model figure of embodiment illustrated in fig. 1；
Fig. 3 a-3h is South China's Heavy Rain of Typhoon low frequency system C movement routine figure.
Specific embodiment
Fig. 1 and Fig. 2 are please referred to, Fig. 1 is the prediction side of South China typhoon and heavy rain of the application based on low frequency flow field figure
The flow diagram of one embodiment of method, Fig. 2 are the prediction model figures of embodiment illustrated in fig. 1.
The prediction technique of South China's typhoon and heavy rain based on low frequency flow field figure of the present embodiment the following steps are included:
S11: key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain is determined on low frequency flow field figure.
Wherein, it is specifically wrapped the step of determining key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain on low frequency flow field figure
It includes:
Obtain the low frequency flow field figure in default historical interval period；
The low frequency cyclone C and under the premise of low frequency anticyclone A integrality in not destroying low frequency flow field figure, statistical analysis obtains
Key area.
Preferably, the historical interval period is preset greater than 4 years.Such as the typhoon and heavy rain that predict 2018, preset history
Gap periods can be -2017 years 2013, can also be 2010 to 2017 years.
In specific example, according to synoptic meteorology principle, N will be had by generating precipitation one, and S warm and cold air converges；Two to have SE and
SW warm moist air convergence.By this principle, using statistical method, -2017 years 2013 5-10 months totally 918 days low frequency flow field figures are counted
Movable concentration zones, do not destroying low frequency anticyclone A, low frequency cyclone C (hereafter for the convenience of description, using A and C is write a Chinese character in simplified form) is complete
Property under the premise of, test of many times determines 9 key areas, and the activity of each area A, C are all related with this area weather.
Specifically, key area includes 9,1st area is West Pacific region (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 2nd area
Regional (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E) for South East Asia Mainland to the South of South China, Mid-northern South China Sea, 3rd area are India-Bay of Bengal
Regional (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 70 ° of E-100 ° of E), 4th area are the East Sea to Japanese areas to the south (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 5th area
For the middle and lower reach of Yangtze River to southwest (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E), 6th area are north India to (25 ° of Qinghai-xizang Plateau Region
N-35 ° of N, 70 ° of E-120 ° of E), 7th area be China northeast and its to the east of ocean surface (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 8th area be North China
To Mongolia and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E), 9th area be Xinjiang and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 70 °
E-120°E)。
S12: low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain in analysis of key region.
In the present embodiment, in analysis of key region low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain step
Suddenly it specifically includes:
Obtain prediction day and its 150 days before low frequency flow field figures；
Analyze the mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area of low frequency flow field figure；
Count the cycle of activity of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area；
Analyze the low frequency anticyclone A of emphasis key area and the relationship of low frequency cyclone C and typhoon and heavy rain, emphasis key area packet
Include 1,2,4,7,9 areas；
Analyze low frequency air flow method.
Wherein, the step of obtaining prediction day and its 150 days before low frequency flow field figures includes: to be obtained by rolling calculation method
The low frequency flow field figure on the same day, rolling calculation method include being filtered meter toward being pushed forward total 150 days Grid datas with comprising the same day
It calculates, the filter value of each lattice point last day is taken to form the low frequency flow field figure on the same day.For example, it is desired to obtain on August 20th, 2017
Low frequency flow field figure can carry out filtering in (30-50 days) with total 150 days Grid datas in 24 days-August 20 days March in 2017 and calculate,
The filter value drafting pattern for taking each lattice point last day (August 20 days) can obtain the low frequency flow field on the same day (August 20 days)
Figure, and so on, to obtain on August 21st, 2017 low frequency flow field figures, then counted within 25 days-August 21 days with March in 2017
It calculates.The low frequency flow field figure on the same day can be quickly obtained by this method, and in the prior art, both at home and abroad in research atmosphere low frequency vibration
Aspect is swung, is all using past data.For example, to study the 5-9 month in 2018 totally 153 days low frequency flow field figure data, it is necessary to
The low frequency flow field figure data of the 5-9 month can be obtained by waiting until October 1.
Wherein, mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution include generation and the extinction time, shifting of low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C
Dynamic path, merging and disruptive features.
Wherein, emphasis key area includes 1,2,4,7,9 areas.Influence south China typhoon, mainly early period 1st area, 2nd area there is C.
Followed by there is A in early period in 4th area, show that Tibetan high is by north, and the air-flow by east of bottom guides typhoon shadow
Ring south China.It is obtained in the application research: 1 area C, 2 area C, 3 area C, 4 area A and 7th area, 9 area A or C, it is in close relations with Heavy Rain of Typhoon,
And consider being mutually arranged and being distributed for 9 areas area Zhong Ge A, C, and it is not each area A, the simple correlation index of C and Heavy Rain of Typhoon, greatly
Gas is an entirety, it is necessary to consider each area A, the configuration and distribution of C.
It is significant to note that the period that different regions consider is different, 1,2,4,7 areas consider 10-20 days and 30- simultaneously
50 day period；3,5,6,8 and 9 areas then only consider 30-50 days periods, because the period directly affects prediction result.
According to A, C analyzes low frequency air-flow in the configuration in each area, causes Typhoon in South China heavy rain, it is preferred that emphasis is 4 area south and 1
There is low frequency air-flow by east in area the north；There is low frequency the south airflow in 3rd area；There is low frequency northern air-flow by east in 7th area；There is low frequency in 9th area
Northwesterly air-flow.
S13: it is based on low frequency system feature, establishes prediction model.
As shown in Fig. 2, the prediction model such as Fig. 2 is obtained according to low frequency system feature, it can be to China according to the prediction model
The typhoon and heavy rain in southern area are effectively predicted.Prediction model includes: that there are low frequency cyclone C in 1st area, 2nd area and 3rd area, in 4th area
There are low frequency anticyclone A, exist simultaneously low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in 7th area and 9th area, go out in 4 area south and 1 area the north
There is low frequency the south airflow in existing low frequency air-flow by east, 3rd area, and low frequency northern air-flow by east occur in 7th area, and low frequency northwesterly gas occur in 9th area
Stream.It is worth noting that being not necessarily required to that all of the above feature fits like a glove when prediction, it is only necessary to most of feature coincide or
The important feature of important area coincide.
A-3h referring to figure 3., Fig. 3 a-3h are South China's Heavy Rain of Typhoon low frequency system C movement routine figures.
Fig. 3 is that (every 4 days, a was June 24 for the low frequency flow field figure of 700hpa isobaris surface on 26 days-July 24 June in 2018
Day ... .h is July 24).It can be seen that June 26 in 1 area lower right corner appearance, one low frequency cyclone C from Fig. 3 a, then connect
Continuous moves by west, until July 24 moved on at the South China coastal land and sea junction.Corresponding exactly " mountain mind " typhoon shadow
Ring the Heavy Rain of Typhoon in south China.
Specifically, being illustrated for there is precipitation forecast the 20-25 days July that in June, 2018 makes and issues: according to
1-30 days in June, 2018, daily low frequency flow field figure, analyzed the daily each area of 1-9 key area in A in June, date that C occurs,
Movement routine and moved through ground, disappear the date；Further according to A, the Predominant period of C is extrapolated, and A will be occurred by obtaining 1st area on July 20 and 7th area；
C will occur in July 21 and 1st area on July 26；7th area C and 9th area will occur and A and 2nd area will occur and C will occur July 22；July 23
A will occur in day and 4th area on July 25；July 25 will occur A in 2nd area.
From the above analysis it is found that during 20-25 days July, the A that each area occurs, C in combination gets up, and meets prediction model
(Fig. 2).Especially there is C in 1st area of sensitizing range and 2nd area；There is A in 4th area；There is A and C in 7 area and 9th area.Point of these A, C
Cloth shows that the middle and high latitude in the north has cold air to go down south just；There is A in West Pacific region north (4th area)；South have C (1st area, 2
Area)；The air-flow by east of the bottom of A is guided to C and is westwards moved.Therefore 29 daily forecast has precipitation in 20-25 in July days in June, it may be possible to platform
Wind.
Similar example is such as: there is precipitation on July 31st, 2017,24-28 days Shenzhen of 24 days in advance forecast Augusts, as a result from
Successively have within 23-28 days " day dove ", " pa card " two typhoon influences, Shenzhen singly station maximum amount of daily precipitation be respectively 93.8mm,
225.9mm and 30.4mm；Shifting to an earlier date 15 days forecast Shenzhen in 13-16 days October on September 28th, 2017 has precipitation, as a result typhoon " card
Exert " it influences, singly station maximum amount of daily precipitation is 147.9mm etc. in Shenzhen.
Following table is that the forecast result of -2017 years 2013 Shenzhen's weather center applications low frequency flow field figures (is not history money
Expect verification result).
The Shenzhen area 2013-2017 typhoon extended peroid forecast result:
2013-2017, in Guangdong, Hainan Province's landfall typhoon 20, tropical depression 3, the timeliness within 30 days is forecast
19 Heavy Precipitations (Rainstorm Heavy rainstorm) are reported to 18 times, and sky report 3 times is failed to report 1 time.(18/22=82%)
The application has the advantage that
(1) Heavy Rain of Typhoon in the influence south China before specific forecasts 1 month.
(2) when production prediction, increase that the days of autonomy of low frequency system, disappear date and its division, merging and movement
Path.
(3) have found the low frequency system that close several emphasis key areas are contacted with typhoon, it may be assumed that 1 area C, 2 area C, 4 area A and
7 area A, C.
(4) A of different key areas, C have a different cycles, some key areas to consider simultaneously two periods (10-20 days, 30-
50 days), some key areas then only consider a cycle (30-50 days).
(5) Typhoon in South China heavy rain low frequency prediction model figure is established.
The foregoing is merely presently filed embodiments, are not intended to limit the scope of the patents of the application, all to utilize this
Equivalent structure or equivalent flow shift made by application specification and accompanying drawing content, it is relevant to be applied directly or indirectly in other
Technical field similarly includes in the scope of patent protection of the application.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of be used in advance based on South China's typhoon of low frequency flow field figure with the prediction technique of heavy rain, the prediction technique
South China's typhoon and heavy rain were predicted in 10-30 days, which is characterized in that the prediction technique includes:
Key area relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain is determined on low frequency flow field figure；
Analyze low frequency system feature relevant to South China's typhoon and heavy rain in the key area；
Based on the low frequency system feature, prediction model is established.
2. prediction technique according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the determining and south China on low frequency flow field figure
The step of regional typhoon and heavy rain relevant key area, specifically includes:
Obtain the low frequency flow field figure in default historical interval period；
The low frequency cyclone C and under the premise of low frequency anticyclone A integrality in not destroying low frequency flow field figure, statistical analysis obtains described
Key area.
3. prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the key area includes 9, and 1st area is that west is peaceful
Foreign area (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 2nd area are that South East Asia Mainland is (10 ° N-25 ° regional to the South of South China, Mid-northern South China Sea
N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E), 3rd area are that India-Bay of Bengal is regional (10 ° of N-25 ° of N, 70 ° of E-100 ° of E), 4th area be the East Sea to it is Japanese with
Southern area (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 5th area be the middle and lower reach of Yangtze River to southwest (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 100 ° E-120 °
E), 6th area are north India to Qinghai-xizang Plateau Region (25 ° of N-35 ° of N, 70 ° of E-120 ° of E), and 7th area are for China northeast and its with Japan
Face (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 120 ° of E-150 ° of E), 8th area are North China to Mongolia and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 100 ° of E-120 ° of E),
9th area are Xinjiang and its northern area (35 ° of N-60 ° of N, 70 ° of E-120 ° of E).
4. prediction technique according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the default historical interval period is greater than 4 years.
5. prediction technique according to claim 3, which is characterized in that in the analysis key area with the south China
The step of regional typhoon and heavy rain relevant low frequency system feature, specifically includes:
Obtain prediction day and its 150 days before low frequency flow field figures；
Analyze the mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area of low frequency flow field figure；
Count the cycle of activity of the low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in each area；
Analyze the low frequency anticyclone A of emphasis key area and the relationship of low frequency cyclone C and typhoon and heavy rain, the emphasis key area packet
Include 1,2,4,7,9 areas；
Analyze low frequency air flow method.
6. prediction technique according to claim 5, which is characterized in that described to obtain the low of prediction day and its 150 days before
The step of frequency flow field figure includes: to obtain the low frequency flow field figure on the same day by rolling calculation method, and the rolling calculation method includes with packet
Calculatings was filtered toward being pushed forward total 150 days Grid datas containing the same day, took the filter value formation same day of each lattice point last day
Low frequency flow field figure.
7. prediction technique according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the mechanics and Characteristics of Evolution include that low frequency is anti-
The generation of cyclone A and low frequency cyclone C and extinction time, the path of movement, merging and disruptive features.
8. prediction technique according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the cycle of activity is by over the years and same period current year
The prediction Predominant period that low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C period statistically analyze.
9. prediction technique according to claim 5, which is characterized in that the prediction model includes: in 1st area, 2nd area and 3rd area
There are low frequency cyclone C, and in 4th area, there are low frequency anticyclone A, exist simultaneously low frequency anticyclone A and low frequency cyclone C in 7th area and 9th area,
There is low frequency air-flow by east in 4 area south and 1 area the north, there is low frequency the south airflow in 3rd area, and low frequency northern air-flow by east occur in 7th area,
There is low frequency northwesterly air-flow in 9th area.
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| CN110542936A (en) * | 2019-08-30 | 2019-12-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | method and system for forecasting power grid rainstorm disaster forecast deviation based on dominant circulation |
| CN113156546A (en) * | 2021-03-12 | 2021-07-23 | 重庆市气象台 | Sunrise and sunset landscape forecasting method and system |
| CN112698428A (en) * | 2021-03-24 | 2021-04-23 | 成都信息工程大学 | Comprehensive forecast information processing method and processing system for rainfall extension period in southwest region |
| CN114580711A (en) * | 2022-01-29 | 2022-06-03 | 国家气候中心 | North China rainy season starting date prediction method based on mode key circulation system |
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