CN109613338B - Low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method based on unitary model - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a unitary model-based low-voltage user loop impedance estimation methodBelonging to the technical field of power management. The method is based on time sequence data of voltage and current collected by a user intelligent ammeter, and the impedance Z of a user loop is measuredLAnd defining, and deducing and constructing a unary linear model of the impedance of the low-voltage user circuit by using a KVL circuit voltage equation. The method for estimating the loop impedance comprises the steps of firstly, statistically dividing the peak-valley level time period of the area into a data acquisition time period according to the selected data, observing the current step time of a user at intervals of 5min in the time period, and freezing voltage and current data at two times before and after the step; then, linear regression analysis is carried out by taking the data of one day as a sample to estimate the impedance Z of the user circuitLThe loop impedance value can be used for estimating the health aging degree of the low-voltage distribution network line and the abnormal electricity utilization behavior of the user.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power management, and particularly relates to a low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method based on a unitary model.
Background
With the increase of the service life of the line and the corrosion of the external severe natural environment, the line can be aged gradually, on one hand, the aged line has the possibility of wire breakage, and more after the wire is aged, the insulation performance is reduced, and the phenomenon of electric leakage or short circuit is easy to generate. However, the low-voltage distribution network has complicated lines and small fault influence surface, the distribution network load flow is rarely calculated in the operation management of the low-voltage distribution network by considering the input-output ratio and other reasons, and an important index line loss of the operation of the low-voltage distribution network is mainly calculated by adopting a power difference method, so that the calculation related to the impedance of the distribution network lines is a blind area of research all the time. The research on how to find the line aging phenomenon in time through the real-time monitoring of the user loop impedance and carry out the short-circuit or open-circuit fault prejudgment can effectively reduce the occurrence of faults and improve the power supply reliability.
In response to this need, the present patent researches a low-voltage subscriber loop impedance estimation method based on a unitary model. In addition, through the monitoring and analysis of the low-voltage user loop impedance, the abnormal electricity utilization behavior of electricity stealing of the user can be effectively found, an electricity manager is helped to strengthen electricity utilization management, the economic benefit of an enterprise is improved, and safe and reliable electricity supply and utilization are realized.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above problems, a unitary model-based method for estimating the impedance of the low-voltage subscriber loop is provided, which is used for monitoring and analyzing the impedance of the low-voltage subscriber loop.
The invention comprises the following steps: a low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method based on a unitary model comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining the acquisition time period of the voltage and current data;
step 2: determining a current step contrast value ICo;
And step 3: collecting sample data of voltage and current;
and 4, step 4: and constructing a low-voltage user loop resistance model and calculating the low-voltage loop resistance.
Furthermore, the determination of the data acquisition time period in step 1 includes a peak-to-average time period of a large user and a peak-to-average time period of a residential user, and an intersection time period of the two user average time periods is selected.
Furthermore, the step 2 determines the contrast value I of the current stepCoComprises the following steps:
step 2-1: analyzing a user historical load curve;
step 2-2: extracting a current step sequence i (k), wherein the step number is m;
step 2-3: find the step value I corresponding to the 0.5m time seriesCo;
Step 2-4: determining a current step contrast value ICo;
Further, the acquiring of the sample data in step 3 includes the following steps:
step 3-1: collecting voltage and current data at intervals of 5 minutes;
step 3-2: judgment I (t +5min) -I (t)>=ICoIf yes, freezing the data; if not, the data is discarded.
Further, the step of constructing the low-voltage user circuit impedance unary model in step 5 includes:
step 5-1: definition of ZL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1; (1)
Step 5-2: according to the power grid topology, a loop voltage equation is written
Step 5-3: the formula (1) is rewritten into a form containing the loop impedance of the user 1
Step 5-4: writing two times t1 and t2, the impedance expression is:
step 5-5: subtracting the impedance expressions at the two moments t1 and t2 to obtain the difference:
in the step 5-6, in the formula,
wherein, δ Z1Mainly due to the influence of the voltage fluctuation of the power supply point on the voltage of the terminal of the user 1, delta Z2The method is mainly characterized in that the two parts are random variables but are in accordance with positive distribution due to the influence of local low-voltage user load fluctuation on the terminal voltage of a user 1;
thus, the formula (6) is further simplified to
And 5-7: rewriting formula (9) to U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ' (10)
And 5-8: analysis by comparison with a linear regression model:
the linear regression model is: y isi=α+βxi+εi (11)
Wherein x isi yiTaking the sample amount, beta is a regression coefficient, and alpha is a regression constant term; epsiloniThe disturbance values are random disturbance items, are independent from one another and are subjected to positive distribution;
delta Z' is a random variable conforming to the positive Tai distribution, and epsilon in the linear regression modeliThe meanings are consistent, the fitting effect and the distribution state of the delta Z' are detected through residual errors and residual mean square error MSe; the expressions (10) and (11) have consistency.
Further, the loop impedance calculation in step 4 includes the following steps:
step 6-1: performing unary linear regression analysis on the acquired sample data of one day;
step 6-2: fitting the residual mean square error;
step 6-3: estimating the loop impedance value Z of the user by the value of the regression coefficient betaL,
Step 6-4: model confidence level detection was performed with P-value.
Has the advantages that: according to the low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method based on the unitary model, disclosed by the invention, through monitoring and analyzing the low-voltage user loop impedance, the abnormal electricity utilization behavior of electricity stealing of a user can be effectively found, an electricity manager is helped to strengthen electricity utilization management, the economic benefit of an enterprise is improved, and safe and reliable electricity supply and utilization are realized.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a circuit model diagram of a low-voltage subscriber loop impedance of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flow chart of a method for estimating the impedance of a low-voltage subscriber loop according to the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of data acquisition period determination in the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a sample data list of the invention frozen by a low voltage user;
fig. 5 is a diagram of the low-voltage loop impedance calculation result of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical means disclosed by the scheme of the invention are not limited to the technical means disclosed by the technical means, and the technical scheme also comprises the technical scheme formed by any combination of the technical characteristics. The invention is further elucidated with reference to the drawings and the detailed description. It should be understood that the following detailed description is illustrative of the invention only and is not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
The modeling process is as follows: low voltage subscriber loop impedance ZLAs shown in fig. 1, the sum of all line impedances passing from the outlet of the secondary side of the transformer to the subscriber port and the equivalent impedance of the secondary side of the transformer has the following loop impedances:
ZL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1 (1)
the unitary model of the low-voltage user loop impedance is based on the time sequence data of the voltage and the current collected by the user intelligent ammeter, and the user loop impedance Z is obtainedLIs defined wherein Z isL1Low voltage loop impedance, Z, for User 1reIs the low voltage loop impedance of re in FIG. 1, ZDALow voltage return for DA in fig. 1Road resistance, ZA1The low-pressure loop impedance of A1 in FIG. 1. And deducing and constructing a unary linear model of the low-voltage user loop impedance by using a KVL loop voltage equation,
collected voltage and current time series data, U, of a useri(t)、IiAnd (t) is the effective value of the user voltage and current at each moment, not the instantaneous value.
With loop impedance Z of low-voltage subscriber 1L1For example, the derivation process is as follows:
1) writing a loop voltage equation according to the power grid topology;
2) equation 1 is rewritten to a form that contains the user 1 loop impedance:
3) at two times t1 and t2, the impedance expression is:
4) subtracting the impedance expressions at the two moments t1 and t2 to obtain the difference:
the model of equation 7 is a model for calculating the loop impedance of user 1, where,
wherein, δ Z1Mainly due to the influence of the voltage fluctuation of the power supply point on the voltage of the terminal of the user 1, delta Z2The two parts are random variables but are in line with positive distribution mainly due to the influence of local low-voltage user load fluctuation on the terminal voltage of the user 1.
5) The model is further simplified to:
in the formula, ZL1For low-voltage subscriber loop impedance, Z has stability, usually a constant value, for the line over time. δ Z is δ Z1And δ Z2The composition of (1), namely independent random variables caused by voltage fluctuation of a power supply point and local low-voltage user load fluctuation, conforms to positive distribution.
6) If the voltages of the power supply points are equal at two moments t1 and t2 and the loads of other local low-voltage users are not changed, then:this is a calculable deterministic quantity since the voltage current across the subscriber 1 is a known quantity that can be measured.
As shown in fig. 2, the method for estimating the resistance of the low voltage subscriber loop based on the unitary model includes the following steps:
1) selecting a data acquisition time period, and selecting a peak time period and a flat time period with relatively stable power consumption by combining the division of the peak-valley flat time period of the region and the statistics of the power consumption condition of the users in the season;
2) user current step contrast value ICoTo retrieve the recent history of the userA load curve, extracting the current step sequence I (k) of the user, determining the current step comparison value I (k) of the user by taking the step covering 50% of the user as a standardCo;
3) Selecting a user current step moment, collecting voltage and current data of a user port at intervals of 5min within a time period determined in the step 1, and comparing current differences I (t +5min) -I (t) and I (t) of the two momentsCoComparison, if I (t +5min) -I (t)>=ICoFreezing the voltage and current data at two moments before and after the step;
4) and taking the frozen data in one day as a sample, and selecting a unary linear regression method for impedance analysis.
5) Selecting regression coefficient to estimate loop impedance value Z of the userLAnd performing model confidence level detection by using the P value, and detecting the fitting effect by using the residual mean square error MSe.
Furthermore, the data acquisition time period is determined, on the basis of the division of the peak-valley-average time period of the area, the peak and ordinary time periods of the electricity consumption of the area are selected, and the peak time period and the ordinary time period are avoided, wherein the main reason is that the load distribution of the peak time period and the ordinary time period is concentrated and is in a large probability concentrated area of the load distribution; and the electricity utilization randomness of the users in the valley and peak periods is strong, and the users are in a small probability distribution interval.
Further, the current step time is determined, and a user current step comparison value I is set based on the recent historical load curve of the userCoMainly, the electrical appliances of users are different, and if a contrast value is set according to general experience, the sample size of part of users is easy to be insufficient; in addition, it is not detectable for users with power theft.
The low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method adopts a unary linear regression method,
1) the linear regression model is:
yi=α+βxi+εi (9)
wherein x isi yiTaking the sample amount, beta is a regression coefficient, and alpha is a regression constant term; epsiloniAre random disturbance terms, the disturbance quantities are independent of each other and obey positive distribution.
2) The formula 8 is rewritten into the following form,
U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ' (10)
3) comparing equation 8 with equation 9, the two models have consistency, δ Z' is a random variable conforming to the positive-Tai distribution, and ε in the linear regression modeliThe meaning is consistent, the fitting effect is detected by the residual error and the residual mean square error MSe, and the distribution state of the delta Z' is detected.
4) Estimating the loop impedance value Z of the user by the value of the regression coefficient betaLAnd performing model confidence level detection by using the P value.
Example 1:
the method comprises the following steps: determination of data acquisition period: selecting a data acquisition time period, and selecting a peak time period and a flat time period with relatively stable power consumption by combining the division of the peak-valley flat time period of the region and the statistics of the power consumption condition of the users in the season; as shown in fig. 3, peak-valley-level time interval division is performed for implementing peak-valley electricity prices in the Anhui region, the time interval division is based on historical statistical data, the social load distribution condition is reflected, and a peak-level intersection set is taken from the time interval division and the resident time interval division of a large user, namely, a target data acquisition time interval.
Step two: determining a current step contrast value ICo:User current step contrast value ICoDetermining, namely calling a recent historical load curve of the user, extracting a current step sequence I (k) of the user, and determining a current step comparison value I of the user by taking a step covering 50% of the user as a standardCo(ii) a In the calculation example, the target analysis user has more high-power equipment, and the current step quantity I is determinedCoIs 8A.
Step three: collecting sample data of voltage and current: selecting a user current step moment, collecting voltage and current data of a user port at intervals of 5min within a time period determined in the step 1, and comparing current differences I (t +5min) -I (t) and I (t) of the two momentsCoComparison, if I (t +5min) -I (t)>=ICoFreezing the voltage and current data at two moments before and after the step;
step four:constructing a low-voltage user loop resistance model, and calculating the low-voltage loop resistance: and taking the frozen data in one day as a sample, and selecting a unary linear regression method for impedance analysis. For the target analysis user, sample data is frozen, with 12 sets of data for flat periods and 18 sets of data for peak periods, see fig. 4. Selecting regression coefficient to estimate loop impedance value Z of the userLAnd performing model confidence level detection by using the P value, and detecting the fitting effect by using the residual mean square error MSe. In the example, the calculation result of the user loop impedance is 0.065 ohms, the data is consistent with the actual circuit impedance, the residual mean square error MSe is 0.44, and the fitting effect is ideal. The confidence interval with a confidence level of 99% was (0.049, 0.082).
Claims (3)
1. A low-voltage user loop impedance estimation method based on a unitary model is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining the acquisition time period of the voltage and current data;
step 2: determining a current step magnitude ICo;
Step 2-1: analyzing a user historical load curve;
step 2-2: extracting a current step sequence i (k), wherein the step number is m;
step 2-3: find the step value I corresponding to the 0.5m time seriesCo;
Step 2-4: determining a step magnitude I corresponding to the current stepCo;
And step 3: collecting sample data of voltage and current;
step 3-1: collecting voltage and current data at intervals of 5 minutes;
step 3-2: judgment I (t +5min) -I (t)>=ICoIf yes, freezing the data; if not, discarding the data;
and 4, step 4: constructing a low-voltage user loop resistance model, and calculating the low-voltage loop resistance;
the method for constructing the low-voltage user circuit impedance unary model comprises the following steps:
step 5-1: definition of ZL1=Zre+ZDA+ZA1; (1)
In the formula, ZL1Low voltage loop impedance, Z, for subscriber 1reLow-voltage loop resistance, Z, of re at the output of the low-voltage transformerDALow voltage loop impedance from point D to A, ZA1The resistance of a low-voltage loop from the point A to the point 1 is realized; u shapei(t)、Ii(t) is the effective value of the user voltage and current at each moment;
step 5-2: writing a loop voltage equation according to the power grid topology;
step 5-3: the formula (1) is rewritten into a form containing the loop impedance of the subscriber 1,
step 5-4: writing two times t1 and t2, the impedance expression is:
step 5-5: subtracting the impedance expressions at the two moments t1 and t2 to obtain the difference:
and 5-6: in the formula
Wherein, δ Z1Is the influence of the voltage fluctuation of the power supply point on the voltage of the subscriber 1 terminal, deltaZ2The influence of the load fluctuation of a local low-voltage user on the terminal voltage of the user 1 is represented by random variables, but the random variables are in accordance with positive distribution;
thus, the formula (6) is further simplified to
And 5-7: rewriting formula (9) to U1(t1)-U1(t2)=ZL1(I1(t2)-I1(t1))+δZ'(10)
And 5-8: analysis by comparison with a linear regression model: the linear regression model is: y isi=α+βxi+εi(11)
Wherein x isi,yiTaking the sample amount, beta is a regression coefficient, and alpha is a regression constant term; epsiloniThe disturbance values are random disturbance items, are independent from one another and are subjected to positive distribution;
delta Z' is a random variable conforming to the positive Tai distribution, and epsilon in the linear regression modeliThe meanings are consistent, the fitting effect and the distribution state of the delta Z' are detected through residual errors and residual mean square error MSe; the expressions (10) and (11) have consistency.
2. A method for estimating the impedance of a low voltage subscriber loop based on a univariate model according to claim 1, characterized in that: the determination of the data acquisition time period in the step 1 comprises a large user peak-average time period and a resident user peak-average time period, and an intersection time period of the two user peak-average time periods is selected.
3. A method for estimating the resistance of a low voltage subscriber loop based on a unitary model as claimed in claim 1, characterized by:
the loop impedance calculation in the step 4 comprises the following steps:
step 6-1: performing unary linear regression analysis on the acquired sample data of one day;
step 6-2: fitting the residual mean square error;
step 6-3: estimating the loop impedance value Z of the user by the value of the regression coefficient betaL,
Step 6-4: model confidence level detection was performed with P-value.
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CN111062176B (en) * | 2019-12-09 | 2023-09-22 | 国网山西省电力公司长治供电公司 | Low-voltage user loop impedance binary linear model construction and solving method |
CN111060750A (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2020-04-24 | 天津大学 | Method for estimating impedance of power system equivalent system |
CN111208351B (en) * | 2020-01-17 | 2022-05-17 | 北京市腾河电子技术有限公司 | Method for calculating power supply line impedance based on load jump and storage medium |
CN111610371A (en) * | 2020-05-14 | 2020-09-01 | 国网河北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 | Real-time calculation method for distribution room impedance |
CN111984925B (en) * | 2020-07-29 | 2024-03-12 | 江苏方天电力技术有限公司 | Circuit abnormality positioning method based on loop impedance, storage medium and computing device |
CN112560239B (en) * | 2020-12-03 | 2022-01-21 | 广东电网有限责任公司云浮供电局 | Method and system for calculating line impedance of transformer area and computer readable storage medium |
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