CN109408871B - Rapid generation method of safe navigation strategy of damaged ship - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention belongs to a rapid generation method of a safe navigation strategy of a damaged ship, which is characterized by comprising the following steps: 1) Solving the damaged ship hydrostatic bending moment and the limiting bending moment according to the damaged ship position; 2) According to the obtained static water bending moment and limit bending moment of the ship in the damaged state, according to the ship safe navigation balance, solving to obtain the critical wave load of the damaged ship; … …; 5) Will M rw (M, n) is compared with the critical wave load of the ship to obtain a value not exceeding M rw The distribution range of the series navigational speed and the series wave height corresponding to (m, o) is the safe navigational boundary state of the damaged ship, wherein o=1, 2,3, …, n Secure ，M rw (m,n Secure )<Critical wave load of the vessel. Through the combination of theoretical calculation and model prediction, the safe sailing decision of the damaged ship can be guided.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of ship navigation safety forecast, and particularly relates to a method for rapidly generating a damaged ship safety navigation strategy.
Background
The ship can collide and be stranded during operation, so that the ship structure is damaged, and the bearing capacity of the ship structure is weakened; meanwhile, when the damaged position of the hull structure appears below the waterline, the static water bending moment and the wave bending moment of the ship are changed due to the fact that part of the cabins are filled with water. Therefore, aiming at the actual conditions of the external load and the structural performance of the ship, the safety sailing state of the whole ship needs to be rapidly evaluated according to the safety balance of the ship body structure, theoretical support is provided for timely forming the safety sailing strategy of the ship, and the ship is conveniently guided to formulate a reasonable and feasible safety plan. In general, when the damaged condition of a damaged ship is clear, the weight distribution, the floating state and the structural damage range of the whole ship are relatively fixed, and the factors directly influencing the safe sailing of the ship body structure are mainly sea conditions, sailing speed, survival time and the like encountered by the ship. The invention mainly solves the problems that the typical damage state of the ship is taken as input, the balance standard is designed according to the safety of the ship body structure, and boundary conditions such as the speed, sea conditions and the like which meet the safety navigation requirement of the damaged ship are rapidly solved and used as the basis for guiding and formulating the safety navigation scheme.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for quickly generating a safe sailing strategy of a damaged ship, which can guide the safe sailing decision of the damaged ship through combining theoretical calculation and model prediction.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is a rapid generation method of a safe navigation strategy of a damaged ship, which is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) Solving the damaged ship hydrostatic bending moment and the limiting bending moment according to the damaged ship position;
2) According to the obtained still water bending moment and the limit bending moment of the damaged ship, according to the ship safe navigation balance, solving to obtain the critical wave load of the damaged ship;
3) Selecting a broken ship wave load proxy model, wherein the model can calculate the actual wave load of a broken ship series by taking the navigational speed, wave height and broken position as input, and the specific practice is as 4);
4) The value of the navigational speed 0-A is taken according to the same step length a, and M progressive navigational speed values V are obtained m M=1, 2,3, …, M, A is the set maximum navigational speed, and the wave height 0-B is valued according to the same step length B to obtain N progressive wave height values H n N=1, 2,3, …, N, B is the set maximum wave height, will V m 、H n Substituting the actual wave load M obtained by solving M multiplied by N corresponding models into a broken ship wave load proxy model rw (m,n)；
5) Will M rw (M, n) is compared with the critical wave load of the ship to obtain a value not exceeding M rw The distribution range of the series navigational speed and the series wave height corresponding to (m, o) is the safe navigational boundary state of the damaged ship, wherein o=1, 2,3, …, n Secure ，M rw (m,n Secure )<Critical wave load of the vessel.
Further, the broken ship wave load agent model in the step 3) is constructed according to the following method, and the specific steps are as follows:
a) Determining four factors including a cabin breaking position, a corresponding weight increase coefficient, a navigational speed and sea conditions as design variables;
b) Generating a sample space from the design variables;
c) Calculating load response of each sample point in a sample space, and outputting bending moment and shearing force values at each station of the ship;
d) Constructing a broken ship wave load proxy model;
e) Repeating the steps b) -d) until the damaged ship wave load agent model meets the precision requirement;
f) And (3) giving any design variable input corresponding to the damaged state, and calculating the wave load of the damaged ship body based on the damaged ship wave load proxy model. Further, the value of the broken cabin position in the step a) is an integer of 1-20, the corresponding weight increment coefficient is obtained by normalizing the weight increment corresponding to the ship station number, and the maximum weight increment at the broken cabin position is M Maximum value When calculating, the water inlet weight is M due to the break at the broken cabin position Increase in The weight gain coefficient at the broken cabin position is M Increase in /M Maximum value The sea condition factor selects the parameter of sense wave height.
Further, the method for generating the sample space in the step b) includes an orthogonal design method and Latin hypercube.
Further, the method for calculating the load response of each sample point in the sample space in the step c) may be calculated by using a WASIM module in the SESAM software system of Norway class.
Further, the mathematical method for constructing the broken ship wave load proxy model is a response surface proxy model, a radial basis function proxy model or a Kriging proxy model. The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows: 1) According to the method, under the condition of setting the typical damage of the ship, the critical navigational speed and critical sea condition meeting the safety balance requirement of the ship hull structure can be rapidly analyzed aiming at the set marine survival time of the ship through a method combining theoretical calculation and model prediction, and the critical navigational speed and the critical sea condition are used as the basis for researching and providing the safety navigational guidance suggestion of the damaged ship; 2) The mathematical model is quickly generated based on the safety navigation strategy of the damaged ship constructed by research, the wave bending moment under the typical sea condition and the navigation speed can be obtained according to the running state of the ship, and the safety evaluation can be carried out on the typical damaged condition; 3) The method for establishing the broken ship wave load proxy model can rapidly forecast broken ship wave loads.
The method is simple, quick and effective, and can provide a safe navigation strategy for any damaged state.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for rapidly generating a safe sailing strategy of a damaged ship;
FIG. 2 is a strategy diagram illustrating an example of a first operation mode in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic view of a second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic view of a third embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a flow chart of a method of constructing a broken vessel wave load proxy model.
Detailed Description
The specific technical scheme of the invention is further described below with reference to the attached drawings.
As shown in figure 1, the method for rapidly generating the safe sailing strategy of the damaged ship is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) Solving the damaged ship hydrostatic bending moment and the limiting bending moment according to the damaged ship position;
2) According to the obtained damaged ship hydrostatic bending moment and limit bending moment and according to a ship safe navigation balance, solving to obtain a damaged ship critical wave load, wherein the coefficient of the ship safe navigation balance can be determined according to related ship design specifications or criteria;
3) Selecting a broken ship wave load proxy model, wherein the model can calculate the actual wave load of a broken ship series by taking the navigational speed, wave height and broken position as input, and the specific practice is as 4
4) The value of the navigational speed 0-A is taken according to the same step length a, and M progressive navigational speed values V are obtained m M=1, 2,3, …, M, A is the set maximum navigational speed, and the wave height 0-B is valued according to the same step length B to obtain N progressive wave height values H n N=1, 2,3, …, N, B is the set maximum wave height, will V m 、H n Substituting the actual wave load M obtained by solving M multiplied by N corresponding models into a broken ship wave load proxy model rw (m, n), the maximum navigational speed A and the limit wave height B can be freely set according to the design parameters of the ship and the sea conditions of the navigational sea area, and the step length can be reasonably set according to the safety navigational assessment refinement requirements of the ship;
5) Will M rw (M, n) is compared with the critical wave load of the ship to obtain a value not exceeding M rw The distribution range of the series navigational speed and the series wave height corresponding to (m, o) is the safe navigational boundary state of the damaged ship, wherein o=1, 2,3, …, n Secure ，M rw (m,n Secure )<The critical wave load of the ship, in order to ensure safety, the maximum navigational speed in the safety navigational strategy of the damaged ship can be directly and comprehensively determined according to the design requirement of the ship and the possible safety navigational speed.
Examples
Taking a certain bulk carrier as an example, the method is used for constructing a broken hull wave load proxy model suitable for the bulk carrier. The bulk carrier has the main parameters as follows:
the following 3 damage working conditions exist, wherein the damage area is a cuboid enclosed by X, Y, Z three dimensions:
description of the coordinate system: the intersection point of the midship cross section and the base line is taken as a coordinate origin, the forward direction of the ship bow is taken as the positive direction of the X axis, the port is taken as the positive direction of the X axis, and the upward direction is taken as the positive direction of the Z axis.
With reference to the evaluation balance of the bearing capacity of the ship structure with respect to the relevant standard specification, in this case, the safe navigation balance coefficient of the damaged ship is set to 2.6, then:
wherein M is ru The unit KN.m is the ultimate bending moment after breakage; m is M rs The bending moment of the still water after breakage is expressed as KN.m; m is M rw The bending moment of the broken wave is expressed as KN.m.
1) Solving the damaged still water bending moment and the limiting bending moment
And according to the damage condition of the cabin, solving the weight distribution of the damaged ship body by combining the weight distribution of the undamaged ship body and the cabin arrangement scheme. According to the buoyancy parameters (midship longitudinal section average draft, transverse inclination, longitudinal inclination and the like) of the damaged ship, the buoyancy distribution of the whole ship after the damage can be obtained according to the whole ship bunkon curve. The weight distribution along the ship length is p (x), the buoyancy distribution along the ship length is b (x), and the total longitudinal bending load q (x) of the ship body beam is
q(x)＝p(x)-b(x)
According to the theory of beams, the bending moment acting on the cross section of the hull beam is:
according to the damage condition of the typical cross section, obtaining the limit bending moment M according to the linear elastic theory ru As a measure of the residual strength of the hull structure after breakage:
M ru ＝min{M 1 ,M 2 },
M 1 ＝σ s W yh ×10 -1 ,
M 2 ＝σ cr W ys ×10 -1
wherein sigma s Yield strength of the rigid member material at the furthest point of the checked section from the central axis is expressed in MPa; sigma (sigma) cr The unit MPa is the critical stress of the rigid member material at the furthest point of the checked section from the central axis; w (W) yh To assume that the stress of the member furthest from the neutral axis is equal to the minimum section modulus at the material yield strength, in cm 2 ·m；W ys To provide the reduced minimum section modulus in cm when the stress of the member furthest from the neutral axis is equal to the critical stress 2 ·m。
The hydrostatic bending moment under the above 3 working conditions and the ultimate bending moment under the damaged state are as follows:
2) Solving critical wave load
According to the damaged still water bending moment and the damaged ultimate bending moment obtained by solving, based on the damaged ship safe navigation balance, the critical wave load of safe navigation under the damaged state can be obtained by solving, and the critical wave loads under 3 working conditions are as follows:
3) Constructing a damaged hull wave load forecasting proxy model to solve actual wave load values after whole ship is damaged
Based on a previously constructed broken ship wave load agent model, respectively dispersing the navigational speed (0-10) and the wave height (0-3.5) into 10 parts and 7 parts, and solving the wave load under 70 working conditions (marked as an actual value), wherein the constructed wave load agent model can reflect the influence of the broken position, the broken range, the navigational speed and the wave height on the wave load, the survival time of the ship on the sea is set to 96 hours (can be set according to evaluation requirements), and the maximum navigational speed is 10 parts and the maximum wave height is 3.5m (sense wave height) in the wave load agent model.
4) Comparing actual value and critical value of wave load, analyzing and solving safety sailing strategy
As shown in fig. 2, in a damaged state of the working condition, when the forecasting period is 96 hours, if the ship sailing speed is 8 knots, the damaged ship can meet the line elastic balancing safety sailing after damage when the wave height is not more than 3 meters.
As shown in fig. 3, in the second damaged condition, when the forecast period is 96 hours and the ship sailing speed is 8 knots, when the wave height is not greater than 2.5 meters, the damaged ship can meet the line elastic balance safety sailing after damage.
As shown in fig. 4, in the third damaged condition, when the prediction period is 96 hours and the ship sailing speed is 8 knots, the damaged ship can meet the line elastic balancing safety sailing after damage when the wave height is not more than 2 meters.
It should be noted that:
firstly, sea state distribution of the sailing sea area is predictable, sea states of different sailing sea areas can be represented by wave heights, and after the damaged state is determined, the upper limit of the safe sailing speed in the sea areas with different wave heights can be obtained according to the steps, so that a safe sailing strategy can be obtained.
Secondly, the forecasting period of the ship safe sailing can be set according to the safety strategy analysis requirement, such as 24 hours, 48 hours, 96 hours and … …, and the actual value of the damaged ship wave load in the short-term and long-term forecasting states can be analyzed and solved in advance, so that the user can conveniently put forward the safe sailing guidance comments in different running period states.
As shown in fig. 5, in the embodiment of the present invention, the broken ship wave load proxy model is constructed by a broken ship wave load rapid forecasting method based on the proxy model, and the rapid forecasting method includes the following steps:
1) Determining four factors of a broken cabin position, a corresponding weight increment coefficient, a navigational speed and a sea state as design variables, wherein the broken cabin position is an integer of 1-20, and corresponds to a ship body station number, the corresponding weight increment coefficient is obtained by weight increment normalization processing, and the maximum weight increment at the broken cabin position is M Maximum value When calculating, the water inlet weight is M due to the break at the broken cabin position Increase in The weight gain coefficient at the broken cabin position is M Increase in /M Maximum value The sea condition factor selects the parameter of sense wave height;
2) Generating a sample space by using design variables, wherein the method for generating the sample space comprises an orthogonal design method or Latin hypercube and the like;
3) The method for calculating the load response of each sample point in the sample space can be calculated by adopting a WASIM module in a SESAM software system of Norway class, and outputting bending moment and shearing force values at each station of the ship;
4) Constructing a broken ship wave load proxy model, wherein a mathematical method for constructing the broken ship wave load proxy model comprises a response surface proxy model (Response Surface Model), a radial basis function proxy model (Radial Basis Functions) or a Kriging proxy model (Kriging surrogate model);
5) Repeating the steps 2) -4) until the damaged ship wave load agent model meets the precision requirement.
6) The user can quickly calculate the wave load of the damaged ship body by giving the input of the design variable corresponding to any damaged state and applying the damaged ship wave load agent model.
The broken ship wave load proxy model applicable to the bulk carrier of the present embodiment is constructed in the following manner.
1) Determining design variables
The design variables must be independent of each other. Considering that the sample space increases exponentially with the number of design variables, in order to simplify the construction of the broken ship wave load proxy model, variables that have less impact on the wave load may be disregarded when determining the design variables.
Factors affecting wave load can be classified into 3 categories: hull characteristic parameters (e.g., buoyancy parameters, weight distribution, etc.), navigational parameters (speed, heading, etc.), and sea state parameters (wave height, period, etc.).
For the type 1 factor affecting the wave load, the buoyancy parameter and the weight distribution can be related through buoyancy balance, and one of the buoyancy parameter and the weight distribution can be taken. The buoyancy state of the ship body can be determined by 3 parameters such as average draft, transverse inclination and longitudinal inclination of the ship midship, the buoyancy state parameters can be changed after the ship is damaged, and considering that the longitudinal distribution of gravity and buoyancy is slightly influenced by transverse inclination (bending moment and shearing force are mainly caused by the fact that the gravity and buoyancy are not consistent in longitudinal distribution), the influence of transverse inclination can be ignored when design variables are selected. Meanwhile, since different cabin volumes are not equal, it is not realistic to use the position and degree of cabin breakage as design variables, and thus, this example selects the position and degree of theoretical station breakage as design variables.
For class 2 factors, in reality, the extreme value of the wave load of a damaged hull under certain sea conditions is of greater concern to the ship operator. Therefore, in the process of solving the wave load, the influence of the course angle is considered, the wave load under different course angles such as 0 degree, 30 degrees, … degrees and the like is calculated respectively, and the maximum value is taken as the wave load extreme value under a certain sea condition.
For class 3 factors, a series of typical well-developed wave environments are considered in the examples for simplicity of calculation. The spectrum form of the wave spectrum is P-M spectrum. Wave height (sense wave)High, marked as T Z ) And period (zero crossing period, denoted as H) S ) The relation of (2) is:
in summary, the 4 typical variables (factors) that ultimately can be determined to affect wave load are: cabin breaking position (denoted as x) 1 ) Corresponding weight gain coefficient (denoted as x 2 ) Speed of voyage (denoted as x) 3 ) Sum wave height (denoted as x 4 )。
Cabin breaking position (x) 1 ) The value is an integer of 1-20, and the ship length is equally divided into 20 station distances corresponding to the station number of the ship body. Then x 1 =1 indicates that a break occurs between theoretical stations of hull 0-1, x 1 =2 indicates that a break appears between theoretical stations of the hull 1-2, and so on, x 1 =20 indicates that a break occurs between theoretical stations of the hull 19-20.
Corresponding weight increase coefficient (x 2 ) The weight increment is normalized by taking the decimal value between 0 and 1. If the maximum weight increase of the 0-1 station is 200t, if a break appears between the 0-1 stations to cause water inflow, the weight is increased by 20t, at this time, x 2 ＝20/200＝0.1。
Speed of navigation (x) 3 ) The value is a decimal between 0 and 10, corresponding to the sailing speed, unit section (kn).
Wave height (x) 4 ) The value is the decimal between 0 and 3.5, which corresponds to the sense wave height in meters (m).
2) Construction of sample spaces
The sample space is constructed using orthogonal design methods in the examples. A orthonormal design table may be denoted as L R (p n ) L represents the orthogonal design table, R represents the number of samples, p represents the number of design variable values, and n represents the number of design variables. Each design variable takes 5 values, resulting in an orthogonal table L 125 (5 4 ) The following are provided:
3) Calculating load response of sample points
The WASIM module in the Norway class Samson software system is used for calculating load response, and the load response comprises bending moment and shear response values of 1-20 theoretical stations (as known from knowledge of structural strength of a ship body, the shear bending moment of the No. 0 theoretical station is 0, and therefore the load response calculation does not comprise the No. 0 theoretical station). The prediction period of the load response is taken to be 4 days (96 hours) or the like.
4) Constructing proxy models
In the embodiment, a Kriging proxy model (a regression model selects a quadratic regression model, and a correlation function selects a Gaussian correlation function) is adopted to construct a damaged ship wave load proxy model.
5) Analysis of proxy model accuracy
And selecting a series of test points in a non-sample space, calculating by using a broken ship wave load proxy model, calculating the actual value by using a SESAM-WASIM, comparing the absolute value of the relative error between the two values, and analyzing the precision of the proxy model. The relative error absolute value is expressed as:
wherein y is an actual value, y approx The predicted values are shown, i=1, 2, and 3 are respectively shown as a shear force at 1/4 of the ship length, a midship bending moment, and a shear force at 3/4 of the ship length. I e r,i The smaller the i, the more accurate the prediction result of the proxy model, which is the broken ship wave load proxy model, is.
The relative error results are as follows:
6) Load forecasting
The user can quickly obtain the wave load of the damaged ship body by giving the input of the design variable corresponding to any damaged state and applying the damaged ship wave load agent model.
Claims (5)
1. The quick generation method of the damaged ship safety navigation strategy is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
1) Solving the damaged ship hydrostatic bending moment and the limiting bending moment according to the damaged ship position;
2) According to the obtained static water bending moment and limit bending moment of the ship in the damaged state, according to the ship safe navigation balance, solving to obtain the critical wave load of the damaged ship;
3) Selecting a broken ship wave load proxy model, wherein the model can take the navigational speed, wave height and broken position as input, and calculates the actual wave load of the broken ship series, and the specific method is as follows in step 4);
4) The value of the navigational speed 0-A is taken according to the same step length a, and M progressive navigational speed values V are obtained m M=1, 2,3, …, M, A is the set maximum navigational speed, and the wave height 0-B is valued according to the same step length B to obtain N progressive wave height values H n N=1, 2,3, …, N, B is the set maximum wave height, will V m 、H n Substituting the actual wave load M obtained by solving M multiplied by N corresponding models into a broken ship wave load proxy model rw (m,n)；
5) Will M rw (M, n) is compared with the critical wave load of the ship to obtain a value not exceeding M rw The distribution range of the series navigational speed and the series wave height corresponding to (m, o) is the safe navigational boundary state of the damaged ship, wherein o=1, 2,3, …, n Secure ，M rw (m,n Secure )<The critical wave load of the vessel is set,
the damaged ship wave load agent model in the step 3) is constructed according to the following method, and the specific steps are as follows:
a) Determining four factors including a cabin breaking position, a corresponding weight increase coefficient, a navigational speed and sea conditions as design variables;
b) Generating a sample space from the design variables;
c) Calculating load response of each sample point in a sample space, and outputting bending moment and shearing force values at each station of the ship;
d) Constructing a broken ship wave load proxy model;
e) Repeating the steps b) -d) until the damaged ship wave load agent model meets the precision requirement;
f) And (3) giving any design variable input corresponding to the damaged state, and calculating the wave load of the damaged ship body based on the damaged ship wave load proxy model.
2. The method for rapidly generating a safe sailing strategy for a damaged ship according to claim 1, wherein the value of the position of the broken cabin in the step a) is an integer of 1-20, the corresponding weight increase coefficient is obtained by normalizing the weight increase coefficient according to the ship station number, and the maximum weight increase at the position of the broken cabin is M Maximum value When calculating, the water inlet weight is M due to the break at the broken cabin position Increase in The weight gain coefficient at the broken cabin position is M Increase in /M Maximum value The sea condition factor selects the parameter of sense wave height.
3. The method for rapidly generating a safe sailing strategy for a damaged ship according to claim 2, wherein the method for generating the sample space in the step b) comprises an orthogonal design method and Latin hypercube method.
4. A method for rapid generation of a safe navigation strategy for a damaged vessel according to claim 3, wherein the load response prediction method for each sample point in the sample space in step c) is calculated by using a WASIM module in the SESAM software system of norwegian class.
5. The rapid generation method of a safe navigation strategy of a damaged vessel according to claim 4, wherein the mathematical method for constructing the wave load proxy model of the damaged vessel comprises a response surface proxy model, a radial basis function proxy model or a Kriging proxy model.
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