CN109388847A - A kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method - Google Patents
A kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method, include the following steps: to establish target area hydrometeorology database；Time series segmentation analysis, determines the variation characteristic of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff；Construction determines set, selects most suitable streamflow change attribution technology；Streamflow change classification, Reasons calculate.The present invention is according to target area hydrometeorology database, analyze environmental change feature, and it is based on existing three classes streamflow change attribution technology, select the technology for being most suitable for target area to streamflow change classification, Reasons, the result of acquisition has fully considered target area environmental change feature.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Runoff Evolution attribution technology in hydraulic engineering field, in particular to a kind of streamflow change attribution skill
Art comprehensive selection method.
Background technique
Runoff is one of most important component part in hydrologic cycle, under current changing environment, understands the production of runoff
Raw, variation and variation potential cause, to the efficient water resources management important in inhibiting of progress.Runoff process and big compression ring
Stream, climate change, the lot of essential factors such as underlying surface and human social economy are closely related in basin, and streamflow change is that these elements are total
Same-action, interweave influence synthesis result, thus show it is complicated and changeable, it is difficult to predict feature.With the quick increasing of population
Long, the imbalance between supply and demand of water resource is increasingly fierce, differentiates the influence of many factor difference diameter streams such as climate change and mankind's activity
Effect has vital effect to the following water resource situation of prediction, water resources management adaptive decision.
The attribution technology of Runoff Evolution is intended to the origin cause of formation of quantitative analysis runoff change in time and space, to predict the following runoff, formulating
The Applicable Countermeasure of water resources management provides foundation, makes for the different origin cause of formation and influence degree with specific aim, convenient for behaviour
The adaptability of work regulates and controls decision.At present from being currently seen in terms of the achievement of document, current attribution technology can be summarized as analytical
Method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation method three classes, with different advantage and disadvantage and in advance it is assumed that therefore its adaptability is because of gas
It waits and changes the survey region different with mankind's activity feature and different.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: providing a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method, and this method has fully considered weather change
Change and mankind's activity feature, the attribution result of acquisition is more accurate and suitable survey region.
A kind of technical solution: streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method, comprising the following steps:
Step (1) establishes target area hydrometeorology database；
The analysis of step (2) time series segmentation, determines the variation characteristic of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff；
Step (3) construction determines set, selects most suitable streamflow change attribution technology；
Step (4) streamflow change classification, Reasons calculate.
Wherein, in step (1), according to weather station meteorological data in target area, be averaged potential evapotranspiration hair, face of face of establishing is put down
Diameter flow database is established according to hydrometric station data in equal precipitation data library.
Wherein, in step (2), time series segmentation analysis determines the variation of day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff
Feature.Initial long-term sequence often by multistage there is the middle data of short-time series of significant change feature to be composed, and total
The time-histories development law of body is not obvious.Therefore, on the basis of Pettitt Mutation Assay and Mann-Kendall trend test
Initial time sequence is segmented by streamflow change, and determines the variation characteristic of day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff.
Wherein, in step 3, climate change, the mankind's activity feature of target area are analyzed, construction determines set, Jin Ergen
According to most suitable in judgement result selection analysis method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation method three classes streamflow change attribution technology
's.
Wherein, in step 4, according to selected streamflow change attribution technology, target area streamflow change classification, Reasons are calculated.
It is that the present invention reaches the utility model has the advantages that by survey region meteorological model station field data, calculate basin precipitation, potential
Hydrometeorological database is established in evapotranspiration, diameter stream interface average value；Sub-period is divided according to runoff time-histories development law, analysis is each
In period, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair, Inflow Sequence variation characteristic；The characteristics of according to three classes attribution technology, building determine set,
It is analyzed and determined based on preceding feature, selects most suitable attribution method to carry out comprehensive classification, Reasons and calculate.The present invention is from attribution skill
The applicability of art is set out, and has fully considered the climate change and mankind's activity feature of survey region, the existing attribution of comprehensive selection
The attribution result of technology, acquisition is more accurate and suitable survey region.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 2 is the schematic diagram of Thiessen polygon building；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart of phase method when study period divides.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, further specific descriptions are done to technical solution of the present invention by embodiment.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method, includes the following steps:
Step 1, according to weather station meteorological data in target area, face of establishing is averaged potential evapotranspiration hair, face mean precipitation number
According to library, diameter flow database is established according to hydrometric station data, is specifically divided into following sub-step:
Step 11 collects target area weather station, hydrometric station data day by day.Each meteorological site is calculated using Penman formula
Potential evapotranspiration hair amount:
In formula, EpFor broad table evaporation capacity (also referred to as potential evapotranspiration hair amount) (mmd-1), so taking G=0；G
For soil heat flux density (MJm-2·d-1), G=0.1 [Ti-(Ti-1+Ti-2+Ti-3)/3](TiFor the temperature on average for calculating day
(℃)；Ti-1,Ti-2,Ti-3Respectively calculate the adjacent first 3 days temperature on average (DEG C) of the moon；Δ indicates saturation vapour pressure-temperature curve
Slope (KPa·℃-1)；γ is hygrometer constant (KPa·℃-1)；λ is water vapor latent heat (MJkg-1)；RnFor net radiation
(MJ·m-2d-1)；EaTo be air-dried power；
(1) design factor:
λ=2.501-0.002361T (2)
In formula, T is temperature on average (DEG C)；eaFor saturation vapour pressure (KPa)；TmaxFor the highest temperature (DEG C)；TminFor minimum gas
Warm (DEG C)；e0(T) saturation vapour pressure (KP when being Ta)；CPFor constant temperature thermal capacity, 1.103 × 10-3MJ/kg℃；ε be vapor with
The weight ratio of dry air, 0.622；P is the air pressure (KP at elevation Ha)；H is weather station elevation (m), is each parameter in bracket
Unit.
(2) sun net radiation R is calculatedn:
Rn=Rns-Rnl (8)
Rns=(1-a) Rs (9)
In formula, RnsFor net solar radiation (MJm-2d-1)；RnlFor net long-wave radiation (MJm-2d-1)；RsFor shortwave radiation
(MJ·m-2d-1)；A is reflectivity, 0.23；RaFor total solar radiation (MJm-2d-1)；asOuter space radiation reaches ground when for the cloudy day
The ratio in face；as+bsOuter space radiation reaches the ratio on ground when for fine day；N is maximum astronomical sunshine time (h)；N is daily
Sunshine time (h)；ωsFor angle at sunset (rad)；J is day ordinal number within the year；The latitude (rad) where weather station；δ
For the magnetic declination (rad) of the sun；drFor day relative distance；edFor actual water vapor pressure (KPa)；RHmeanFor average relative humidity
(%)；TkxFor the absolute temperature of highest, Tkx=Tmax+273；TknFor minimum absolute temperature, Tkn=Tmin+273.Wherein asAnd bs's
Size generally takes as=0.25, as+bs=0.75, but due to different regional asAnd bsValue be different, and asWith
bsValue be affected for the evaporation from water surface result finally calculated, so needing to have actual measurement solar spoke in reference area
The weather station penetrated, according toFormula and solar radiation observation value, sunshine time observation referring to weather station
And latitude determines a of each weather stationsAnd bsSize, target area asAnd bsValue be region internal reference weather station
Average value.
(3) it calculates and is air-dried power Ea:
Ea=10 (0.2+0.066u2)·(ea-ed) (19)
In formula, U2For 2m eminence wind speed (ms-1)；UzFor measuring point mean wind speed (ms-1)；Z is measuring wind speed height
It (m), is the unit of parameter in bracket.
Step 12, the location point evidence according to each weather station construct Thiessen polygon:
(1) all adjacent meteorological site evidences are connected, network of triangle is constructed.
(2) for each meteorological site evidence, all triangles adjacent thereto are found out, calculate the external round of each triangle
The heart (intersection point of the perpendicular bisector on three sides) position.
(3) it is sequentially connected each circumscribed circle center of circle according to direction clockwise (or counterclockwise), Thiessen polygon can be obtained.It is right
Meteorological site evidence in network of triangle edge can be intersected by perpendicular bisector with mapborder, by circumscribed circle circle center line connecting and mapborder
Thiessen polygon is constituted together.
Step 13 calculates face and is averaged potential evapotranspiration hair amount, face average precipitation.Each meteorological site evidence respectively falls in one
In Thiessen polygon, it is believed that the area of Thiessen polygon covering is the range that the weather station is controlled, with average weighted side
Method, You Gezhan meteorological factor value (such as potential evapotranspiration hair amount, precipitation) calculate face average air as factor values:
In formula, CpFor the face average value of p-th of meteorological factor；A is the gross area；AqIt is more for the corresponding Tyson in q-th of weather station
The area of side shape；CpqValue for p-th of meteorological factor at q-th of weather station；S is the weather station number in basin.
Step 14 establishes diameter flow database according to hydrometric station data.According to the control range at hydrometric station representative in basin,
Entire basin is divided into multiple nonoverlapping sections.Assuming that the section quantity selected in basin is N, the outlet of each section
Respectively there is a hydrometric station at place, calculates the measured path flow depth of each section, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula,
For measuring runoff of p-th of section within the i-th period；WithIt is pth and k hydrometric station at i-th
Measuring runoff in section；ApAnd AkFor the area of pth and k hydrometric station control area；M is the when number of segment for including in the research phase；N
For selected hydrometric station number, it is equal to section number.
Step 2, time series segmentation is analyzed, and determines the variation characteristic of day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff.Initially
Long-term sequence be often by multistage there is the middle data of short-time series of significant change feature to be composed, and overall time-histories is drilled
Become rule to be not obvious.Therefore, streamflow change is pressed on the basis of Pettitt Mutation Assay and Mann-Kendall trend test
Initial time sequence is segmented, and determines the variation characteristic of day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff.To time series
Carry out multi-level segmentation.Using initial time sequence as one level temporal sequence, Pettitt Mutation Assay is carried out, level-one is found
Catastrophe point, then initial time sequence is divided into two second level time serieses before and after catastrophe point.And so on, constantly use
Pettitt method finds the catastrophe point of time series step by step, is segmented time series at catastrophe point.Pass through Mann-
The significance test of Kendall trend analysis, when certain time series has significant Long-term change trend feature or sequence length L small
In given length threshold LmOr sequence level number C is greater than given level threshold CmWhen, no longer the time series will be carried out
Segmentation.Pettitt test statistics U for time series X, when sequence length T, build time tt,T:
X in formuladAnd xcFor the element of time series X, statistic U is rememberedt,NMaximum value be kτ=max { Ut,T, when corresponding
Between τ be exactly catastrophe point, significance P examines formula as follows:
P=2exp { -6 (kτ)2/(T3+T2)}
For time series X, Mann-Kendall test statistics S and Z is constructedc:
Work as ZcWhen > 0, showing time series X at any time has increase trend, ZcShow that time series X has at any time when < 0 to subtract
Few trend, when | Zc| > Z1-α/2When, Z1-α/2For standard normal deviation, α is significance, shows that time series variation trend is united
It is significant to count meaning.Using the variation tendency of each period precipitation of Mann-Kendall check analysis, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff.
Step 3, climate change, the mankind's activity feature of target area are analyzed, construction determines set, and then ties according to judgement
Fruit selects most suitable streamflow change attribution technology.Following judge index is constructed, is judged:
Does (1) significant change have occurred in runoff in study period? whether study period can be divided into i.e. in step 2
It is there the m section (m >=1) of significant changes in statistical significance? it is to carry out the next item down judgement；No, goals research region runoff is not shown
Variation is write, it can not attribution.
(2) study period whether there is (standard) natural phase? take the 1st period after study period divides in step 2, and step
Used in 2 the 1st period runoff of Mann-Kendall check analysis, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair sequence variation characteristic.It grinds
Study carefully the 1st period runoff, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair Sequence Trend change so that judge whether there is (standard) natural phase: (a) runoff,
Significant Long-term change trend in statistical significance is not present in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair sequence, then assert that the 1st period was the natural phase；(b) diameter
Flow sequence there are significant Long-term change trend in significant statistical significance, precipitation exist with the consistent significant Long-term change trend of runoff, dive
There is the significant Long-term change trend opposite with runoff in evapotranspiration sequence, then assert the natural phase subject to the 1st period；(c) otherwise, assert
(standard) natural phase is not present in study period.It is analytical if study period is there are natural phase or quasi- natural phase according to the above judgement
Method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation method three classes streamflow change attribution technology are suitable for, and carry out the next item down judgement；If research
Period there is no natural phase and quasi- natural phase, then selects conceptual approach.
Can (3) variation of water storage, the variation of deep phreatic water be ignored in basin? it is three classes streamflow change attribution
Technology is suitable for, and carries out the next item down judgement；It is no, it selectes hydrological simulation method and carries out Runoff Evolution classification, Reasons.
Does is (4) it leading that target area, which is with direct mankind's activity, or with indirect mankind's activity is leading? the direct mankind are living
It is dynamic to refer to that production and living ecology takes water, reservoir stores that sluicings, diversion water transfer etc. are this kind of to directly act on runoff, once the implementation short time
It is interior will the mankind's activity that has an impact of watershed runoff, be characterized in that instantaneity；Indirect mankind's activity refers to disafforestation/concede the land
Also woods, wetlands degradation/restoration of the ecosystem, land use change etc. it is this kind of by influence basin in water balance other, and then
The mankind's activity for influencing Watershed Runoff is connect, it is compared with direct mankind's activity it is characterized in that slow to runoff influence, need one
Just meeting diameter stream makes a significant impact for relatively long accumulation.For the period i of (standard) after base period, if Inflow Sequence
There are tendency significant in statistical significance variations, and precipitation and (or) evapotranspiration sequence are not present, then determine that basin has occurred
Direct mankind's activity.Further, if runoff has occurred increase trend, upper pond flood discharge is had occurred in identification, diversion outside basin
Equal mankind's activities；If runoff has occurred reduction trend, upper pond water storage is had occurred in identification, water transfer, production and living outside basin
Ecology takes the mankind's activities such as water increase.For the period i of (standard) after base period, if there is no significant in statistical significance for runoff
Variation tendency, and precipitation and (or) evapotranspiration sequence exist, still it can be assumed that direct mankind's activity has occurred in basin, these work
Streamflow change has been compensated in dynamic influence.For the period i of (standard) after base period, indirect mankind's activity can be by the soil in basin
Ground is obtained using data.When it is leading that target area, which is with direct mankind's activity, using hydrological simulation method to streamflow change
Classification, Reasons；When it is leading that target area, which is with indirect mankind's activity, analytical method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation side
Method three classes attribution technology is used equally for streamflow change classification, Reasons.
Step 4, according to step 3 comprehensive judgement, according to climate change and mankind's activity feature, using most suitable diameter rheology
Change attribution technology, target area streamflow change classification, Reasons are calculated.
For period i, analytical method weather elasticity attribution technology be can be described as:
In formula, Δ RC,iInfluence of the climate change to runoff when for period i, R is runoff, CfFor f-th of meteorological factor, NC
For meteorological factor number, Δ Cf,iFor period i and i-1, meteorological factor CfDifference,Meteorological factor C when for period ifElasticity
Coefficient can be calculated with following formula:
In formula,WithFor period i runoff R and meteorological factor CfMean value, εf,iIt can be returned by following multiple linear
Formula of making a public possession calibration:
In formula, RyiAnd Cf,yiFor in period i, runoff R and meteorological factor C year by yearfValue.
Conceptual attribution method can be described as based on the Budyko attribution technology assumed:
Hydrothermal reaction coupling equilibrium equation based on mathematical derivation can be used to indicate basin under certain weather and land surface condition
Long-term Heat And Water Balance relationship, expression formula are as follows:
In formula, P is mean annual precipitation, E0For mean annual potential evaporation amount, E, which is that mean annual is practical, to be steamed
Emission, n are underlying surface parameter.The formula on condition that: 1. using basin be closed basin (i.e. earth's surface watershed and ground
Lower watershed is overlapped) 2. the variation of averagely basin reservoir storage can be ignored for many years.
On scale average for many years, basin water equilibrium equation is expressed as R=P-E, then runoff can be expressed as R=f
(P,E0, n), and then streamflow change can be indicated in the form of total differential are as follows:
The concept of weather coefficient of elasticity is done into certain extension to define the underlying surface coefficient of elasticity of runoff, then runoff
Variation can be expressed as following form:
In formula, εp、εE0、εnRespectively P, E0, n coefficient of elasticity, expression formula is as follows:
Enable arid coefficient φ=E0/ P then calculates this 3 coefficient of elasticity using hydrothermal reaction coupling equilibrium equation:
P, E can be sought respectively according to these three parameters0, n change caused by streamflow change Δ Rp、ΔRn:
In formula, Δ P, Δ E0, Δ n be respectively period i average precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair amount, parameter n relative periods i-1
Variable quantity.
For period i, hydrological simulation method can be stated are as follows:
The holding stage land surface condition of i-1 is constant, the meteorological data of stage i is inputted SWAT model, then stage i weather
The influence of change on runoff can indicate are as follows:
ΔRC,i=R (Li-1,Ci)-R(Li-1,Ci-1) (37)
In formula, Δ RC,iFor streamflow change caused by the climate change of stage i；Li-1For stage i-1 land use data, Ci-1
And CiThe respectively meteorological data of stage i-1 and stage i；R(Li-1,Ci) and R (Li-1,Ci-1) respectively indicate fixed stage i-1's
Land use data input is constant, the meteorological data of stage i and stage i-1 is respectively adopted, the runoff simulated through SWAT.
Holding stage i weather conditions are constant, the variation of runoff before and after simulation land use change survey, to indicate stage i soil
Utilize the influence to runoff:
ΔRL,i=R (Li,Ci)-R(Li-1,Ci) (38)
In formula, Δ RL,iFor streamflow change caused by stage i land use change survey, i.e., shadow of the indirect mankind's activity to runoff
It rings；R(Li,Ci) and R (Li-1,Ci) respectively indicate fixed stage i meteorological data input it is constant, stage i and stage is respectively adopted
The land use data of i-1, the runoff simulated through SWAT.
It is remaining after quantitative resolution goes out climate change and this indirect mankind's activity of lower crust composition to the influence of runoff
Streamflow change, which approximate can conclude, arrives life production in basin, the direct mankind's activity such as diversion water transfer outside basin:
ΔRD,i=Δ RT,i-ΔRC,i-ΔRL,i=RO,i-R(Li,Ci) (39)
In formula, Δ RD,iFor streamflow change caused by the direct mankind's activity of stage i, Δ RT,iAlways change for stage i runoff,
RO,iFor stage i measuring runoff.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method, which comprises the steps of:
Step (1) establishes target area hydrometeorology database；
The analysis of step (2) time series segmentation, determines the variation characteristic of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff；
Step (3) construction determines set, selects most suitable streamflow change attribution technology；
Step (4) streamflow change classification, Reasons calculate.
2. a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that:
According to weather station meteorological data in target area, face of establishing is averaged potential evapotranspiration hair, face mean precipitation data step (1)
Library establishes diameter flow database according to hydrometric station data, is specifically divided into following sub-step:
Step (11) collects target area weather station, hydrometric station data day by day, and it is latent to calculate each meteorological site using Penman formula
In evapotranspiration amount:
In formula, EpIt is also referred to as potential evapotranspiration hair amount for broad table evaporation capacity, so taking G=0；G is that soil heat flux is close
Degree, G=0.1 [Ti-(Ti-1+Ti-2+Ti-3)/3], TiFor the temperature on average for calculating day；Ti-1,Ti-2,Ti-3It is adjacent respectively to calculate the moon
Preceding temperature on average on the 3rd；Δ indicates saturation vapour pressure-temperature curve slope；γ is hygrometer constant；λ is water vapor latent heat；
RnFor net radiation；EaTo be air-dried power；
Step (111) design factor:
λ=2.501-0.002361T
In formula, T is temperature on average；eaFor saturation vapour pressure；TmaxFor the highest temperature；TminFor the lowest temperature；e0(T) full when being T
And vapour pressure；CPFor constant temperature thermal capacity, 1.103 × 10-3MJ/kg℃；ε is the weight ratio 0.622 of vapor and dry air；P is
Air pressure at elevation H；H is weather station elevation；
Step (112) calculates sun net radiation Rn:
Rn=Rns-Rnl
Rns=(1-a) Rs
In formula, RnsFor net solar radiation；RnlFor net long-wave radiation；RsFor shortwave radiation；A is reflectivity, 0.23；RaIt is total for the sun
Radiation；asOuter space radiation reaches the ratio on ground when for the cloudy day；as+bsOuter space radiation reaches the ratio on ground when for fine day；N
For maximum astronomical sunshine time；N is daily sunshine time；ωsFor angle at sunset；J is day ordinal number within the year；For meteorology
Latitude where standing；δ is the magnetic declination of the sun；drFor day relative distance；edFor actual water vapor pressure；RHmeanIt is average relatively wet
Degree；TkxFor the absolute temperature of highest, Tkx=Tmax+273；TknFor minimum absolute temperature, Tkn=Tmin+273；Wherein asAnd bsIt is big
It is small generally to take as=0.25, as+bs=0.75, but due to different regional asAnd bsValue be different, and asAnd bs
Value be affected for the evaporation from water surface result finally calculated, so needing to have actual measurement solar radiation in reference area
Weather station, according toFormula and solar radiation observation value referring to weather station, sunshine time observation with
And latitude determines a of each weather stationsAnd bsSize, target area asAnd bsValue be region internal reference weather station
Average value；
Step (113) calculating is air-dried power Ea:
Ea=10 (0.2+0.066u2)·(ea-ed)
In formula, U2For 2m eminence wind speed；UzFor measuring point mean wind speed；Z is measuring wind speed height；eaFor saturation vapour pressure；edFor
Actual water vapor pressure；
Step (12) constructs Thiessen polygon according to the location point evidence of each weather station: specific as follows:
Step (121) connects all adjacent meteorological site evidences, constructs network of triangle；
Step (123) finds out all triangles adjacent thereto, calculates the circumscribed circle of each triangle for each meteorological site evidence
Center location；
Thiessen polygon can be obtained according to each circumscribed circle center of circle is sequentially connected clockwise or counterclockwise in step (123).It is right
Meteorological site evidence in network of triangle edge can be intersected by perpendicular bisector with mapborder, by circumscribed circle circle center line connecting and mapborder
Thiessen polygon is constituted together.
Step (13) calculates face and be averaged potential evapotranspiration hair amount, face average precipitation, and each meteorological site evidence respectively falls in a Thailand
In gloomy polygon, it is believed that the area of Thiessen polygon covering is range that the weather station is controlled, with average weighted method,
Face average air is calculated as factor values by each station meteorological factor value:
In formula, CpFor the face average value of p-th of meteorological factor；A is the gross area；AqFor the corresponding Thiessen polygon in q-th of weather station
Area；CpqValue for p-th of meteorological factor at q-th of weather station；S is the weather station number in basin；
Step (14) establishes diameter flow database according to hydrometric station data, will according to the control range at hydrometric station representative in basin
Entire basin is divided into multiple nonoverlapping sections；Assuming that the section quantity selected in basin is N, the exit of each section
Respectively there is a hydrometric station, calculate the measured path flow depth of each section, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula,
For measuring runoff of p-th of section within the i-th period；WithIt is pth and k hydrometric station within the i-th period
Measuring runoff；ApAnd AkFor the area of pth and k hydrometric station control area；M is the when number of segment for including in the research phase；N is choosing
Fixed hydrometric station number is equal to section number.
3. a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
(2) specific as follows:
Time series segmentation is analyzed, determines the variation characteristic of day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff；Initial long-time
Sequence is often by multistage there is the middle data of short-time series of significant change feature to be composed, and overall time-histories development law is simultaneously
It is unobvious, therefore, on the basis of Pettitt Mutation Assay and Mann-Kendall trend test by streamflow change to it is initial when
Between sequence be segmented, and determine day part precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff variation characteristic；Multilayer is carried out to time series
Secondary segmentation carries out Pettitt Mutation Assay, finds Primary mutations point using initial time sequence as one level temporal sequence, in
It is two second level time serieses that initial time sequence is divided into before and after catastrophe point, and so on, constantly use Pettitt method
Time series, is segmented by the catastrophe point for finding time series step by step at catastrophe point.Pass through Mann-Kendall trend point
The significance test of analysis, when there is certain time series significant Long-term change trend feature or sequence length L to be less than given length threshold
Value LmOr sequence level number C is greater than given level threshold CmWhen, no longer the time series will be segmented.For time sequence
Pettitt test statistics U when column X, sequence length T, build time tt,T:
X in formuladAnd xcFor the element of time series X, statistic U is rememberedt,NMaximum value be kτ=max { Ut,T, the corresponding timeτJust
It is catastrophe point, significance P examines formula as follows:
P=2exp { -6 (kτ)2/(T3+T2)}
For time series X, Mann-Kendall test statistics S and Z is constructedc:
Work as ZcWhen > 0, showing time series X at any time has increase trend, ZcShow that time series X is reduced at any time when < 0
Gesture, when | Zc| > Z1-α/2When, Z1-α/2For standard normal deviation, α is significance, shows time series variation trend statistics meaning
It is adopted significant；Using the variation tendency of each period precipitation of Mann-Kendall check analysis, potential evapotranspiration hair and runoff.
4. a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
(3) specifically:
Climate change, the mankind's activity feature of target area are analyzed, construction determines set, and then most suitable according to judgement result selection
The streamflow change attribution technology of conjunction, constructs following judge index, is judged:
Whether in step (31) study period, whether runoff has occurred significant change, i.e., can be by study period point in step (2)
It at the m section (m >=1) for having significant changes in statistical significance, is to carry out the next item down judgement；No, goals research region runoff does not occur
Significant changes, can not attribution；
Step (32) study period takes the 1st period after study period divides in step (2) with the presence or absence of the quasi- natural phase, and walks
Used the 1st period runoff of Mann-Kendall check analysis, precipitation, the variation of potential evapotranspiration hair sequence special in (2) suddenly
Sign；The 1st period runoff, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair Sequence Trend is studied to change and then judge whether there is the quasi- natural phase: (a) diameter
Significant Long-term change trend in statistical significance is not present in stream, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair sequence, then assert that the 1st period was the natural phase；
(b) there are significant Long-term change trend in significant statistical significance, precipitation exists to be become Inflow Sequence with the consistent significant trend of runoff
Change, potential evapotranspiration sends out sequence and there is the significant Long-term change trend opposite with runoff, then assert the natural phase subject to the 1st period；(c) no
Then, assert study period there is no the quasi- natural phase, according to the above judgement, if study period there are natural phase or quasi- natural phase,
Analytical method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation method three classes streamflow change attribution technology are suitable for, and carry out the next item down judgement；
If study period selects conceptual approach there is no natural phase and quasi- natural phase.
Whether the variation of water storage, the variation of deep phreatic water can be ignored in step (33) basin, be three classes streamflow change attribution
Technology is suitable for, and carries out the next item down judgement；It is no, it selectes hydrological simulation method and carries out Runoff Evolution classification, Reasons；
Step (34) is for the period i after quasi- base period, if there are tendencys significant in statistical significance to change for Inflow Sequence,
And precipitation and/or evapotranspiration sequence are not present, then direct mankind's activity has occurred in basin.Further, if runoff is increased
Upper pond flood discharge then has occurred, the mankind's activities such as diversion outside basin in trend；If reduction trend has occurred in runoff, have occurred
Water transfer, production and living ecology take the mankind's activities such as water increase outside upper pond water storage, basin；For after quasi- base period when
Section i, if there is no significant changes trend in statistical significance for runoff, and precipitation or evapotranspiration sequence exist, and still can be determined that stream
Direct mankind's activity has occurred in domain, and streamflow change has been compensated in these movable influences；For the period i after quasi- base period,
Connecing mankind's activity can be obtained by the land use data in basin；When it is leading that target area, which is with direct mankind's activity,
Using hydrological simulation method to streamflow change classification, Reasons；It is analytical when it is leading that target area, which is with indirect mankind's activity,
Method, conceptual approach, hydrological simulation method three classes attribution technology are used equally for streamflow change classification, Reasons.
5. a kind of streamflow change attribution technological synthesis selection method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the step
(4) specific step is as follows:
According to step (1) comprehensive judgement, according to climate change and mankind's activity feature, using most suitable streamflow change attribution skill
Art calculates target area streamflow change classification, Reasons；
For period i, analytical method weather elasticity attribution technology be can be described as:
In formula, Δ RC,iInfluence of the climate change to runoff when for period i, R is runoff, CfFor f-th of meteorological factor, NCFor meteorology
Factor number, Δ Cf,iFor period i and i-1, meteorological factor CfDifference,Meteorological factor C when for period ifCoefficient of elasticity,
It can be calculated with following formula:
In formula,WithFor period i runoff R and meteorological factor CfMean value, εf,iIt can be public by following multiple linear regression
Formula calibration:
In formula, RyiAnd Cf,yiFor in period i, runoff R and meteorological factor C year by yearfValue；
Conceptual attribution method can be described as based on the Budyko attribution technology assumed:
Hydrothermal reaction coupling equilibrium equation based on mathematical derivation can be used to indicate that basin is long-term under certain weather and land surface condition
Heat And Water Balance relationship, expression formula is as follows:
In formula, P is mean annual precipitation, E0For mean annual potential evaporation amount, E is mean annual actual evapotranspiration hair
Amount, n are underlying surface parameter.The formula on condition that: be 1. closed basin using basin, i.e. earth's surface watershed and underground point
The variation that water ridge is overlapped the basin reservoir storage that is 2. averaged for many years can be ignored；
On scale average for many years, basin water equilibrium equation is expressed as R=P-E, then runoff can be expressed as R=f (P, E0,
N), and then streamflow change can be indicated in the form of total differential are as follows:
The concept of weather coefficient of elasticity is done into certain extension to define the underlying surface coefficient of elasticity of runoff, the then variation of runoff
It can be expressed as following form:
In formula, εp、εnRespectively P, E0, n coefficient of elasticity, expression formula is as follows:
Enable arid coefficient φ=E0/ P then calculates this 3 coefficient of elasticity using hydrothermal reaction coupling equilibrium equation:
P, E can be sought respectively according to these three parameters0, n change caused by streamflow change Δ Rp、ΔRn:
In formula, Δ P, Δ E0, Δ n be respectively period i average precipitation, potential evapotranspiration hair amount, parameter n relative periods i-1 variation
Amount；
For period i, hydrological simulation method can be stated are as follows:
The holding stage land surface condition of i-1 is constant, and the meteorological data of stage i is inputted SWAT model, then stage i climate change
Influence to runoff can indicate are as follows:
ΔRC,i=R (Li-1,Ci)-R(Li-1,Ci-1)
In formula, Δ RC,iFor streamflow change caused by the climate change of stage i；Li-1For stage i-1 land use data, Ci-1And CiPoint
Not Wei stage i-1 and stage i meteorological data；R(Li-1,Ci) and R (Li-1,Ci-1) respectively indicate fixed stage i-1 soil benefit
It is constant with data input, the meteorological data of stage i and stage i-1 is respectively adopted, the runoff simulated through SWAT；
Holding stage i weather conditions are constant, the variation of runoff before and after simulation land use change survey, to indicate stage i land use
Influence to runoff:
ΔRL,i=R (Li,Ci)-R(Li-1,Ci)
In formula, Δ RL,iFor streamflow change caused by stage i land use change survey, i.e., influence of the indirect mankind's activity to runoff；R
(Li,Ci) and R (Li-1,Ci) respectively indicate fixed stage i meteorological data input it is constant, be respectively adopted stage i's and stage i-1
Land use data, the runoff simulated through SWAT；
After quantitative resolution goes out climate change and this indirect mankind's activity of lower crust composition to the influence of runoff, remaining runoff
Variation, which approximate can conclude, arrives life production in basin, the direct mankind's activity such as diversion water transfer outside basin:
ΔRD,i=Δ RT,i-ΔRC,i-ΔRL,i=RO,i-R(Li,Ci)
In formula, Δ RD,iFor streamflow change caused by the direct mankind's activity of stage i, Δ RT,iAlways change for stage i runoff, RO,iFor
Stage i measuring runoff.
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