CN109345080B - Method and system for evaluating gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline system - Google Patents
Method and system for evaluating gas supply reliability of natural gas pipeline system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: calculating and obtaining the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method; calculating to obtain natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side; acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the long-distance natural gas pipeline and the natural gas demand data; obtaining operation parameters of a gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of a pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients; and calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply amount data of the pipeline system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of oil and gas equipment management, in particular to a method and a system for evaluating gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline system.
Background
With the rapid development of low-carbon economy, the demand of natural gas as a clean and efficient fossil energy source is on a high-speed increasing trend. The natural gas pipeline system consists of a natural gas long-distance pipeline system and supporting facilities thereof such as an underground gas storage, is a link for connecting natural gas resources and downstream markets, and the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system is directly related to the gas use safety of natural gas users. The gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system refers to the capability of the system to meet the market demand of natural gas within the task time and the specified conditions, and is determined by the gas supply capability of the system and the market demand. The key to the evaluation of the air supply reliability is to consider the uncertainty of the air supply capacity and the market demand of the system. The uncertainty of the gas supply capacity of the system mainly comes from the uncertainty of the running state of the system and the dynamic behavior of the pipeline system; the market demand is influenced by external factors such as temperature and gas price, and changes with time. However, the existing literature often ignores the uncertainty of the air supply capacity and the market demand of the system, and the result of evaluating the air supply reliability is often seriously inconsistent with the reality.
Currently, many researchers have attempted to evaluate the reliability of gas supply to natural gas pipeline systems using the theory of graph theory. The method comprises the following main steps of 1) calculating the failure probability of units (pipe section units and natural gas station yards) in the natural gas pipeline system; 2) simulating the transfer process of the system by adopting a Monte Carlo method; 3) determining pipeline transportation constraint according to the system running state, and calculating the air supply amount of the system in each state by adopting a maximum flow algorithm; 4) and comparing the air supply condition with the user demand condition so as to finish the evaluation of the air supply reliability of the pipeline system. However, this solution is not sufficient in view of uncertainty in the air supply capacity of the piping system and uncertainty in market demand.
In the air supply capacity calculation, the maximum flow algorithm in the graph theory is adopted in the existing scheme to calculate the air supply capacity of the system in different running states. Because a large amount of gas is stored in the pipeline in the form of a pipe stock when the pipeline system operates, the gas supply amount of the system is a gradual change process when the system is in a state transition. The dynamic behavior of the pipeline system is ignored by adopting the maximum flow algorithm, and the processing of the air supply amount is a sudden change process. In addition, the gas storage is used as an important supporting facility of a pipeline system, and the working characteristics and the injection and production reliability of the gas storage are not considered in the prior art. In terms of market demand, the prior art treats this as a fixed value, ignoring the characteristics of market variation over time, which are different every month, day and time.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for evaluating gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline system in consideration of uncertainty of gas supply capacity and market demand.
In order to achieve the above object, the method for evaluating reliability of gas supply of a natural gas pipeline system provided by the present invention specifically comprises: calculating and obtaining the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method; calculating to obtain natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side; acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the long-distance natural gas pipeline and the natural gas demand data; obtaining operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, and obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data; acquiring air supply data of a pipeline system according to the injection-production reliable coefficient; and obtaining an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply amount data of the pipeline system.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculating and obtaining the gas supply data of the long-distance natural gas pipeline by the monte carlo simulation method includes: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the calculating to obtain the natural gas demand data according to the load continuous curve technology analyzed on the demand side includes: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; and acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function.
In an embodiment of the present invention, obtaining the operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, and obtaining the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data includes: obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation; establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure; adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit; and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
In an embodiment of the present invention, obtaining an evaluation result of the reliability of the gas supply of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply amount data of the pipeline system includes: and calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system by the following formula:
in the above formula, Rsystem(j) Representing the gas supply reliability coefficient of the jth iterative computation; t is task time; ciIndicating a demand fulfillment condition for day i or hour; n is the Monte Carlo simulation times; and the gas supply reliability is obtained by calculating the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
The invention also provides a system for evaluating the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system, which comprises a gas supply calculation module, a demand calculation module, a gas storage reliability calculation module and an evaluation module; the gas supply calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance transmission pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method; the demand calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side; the gas storage reliability calculation module is used for acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline and the natural gas demand data; obtaining operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients; the evaluation module is used for obtaining an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the gas supply calculating module further includes: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the requirement calculating module further includes: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; and acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the gas storage reliability calculating module further includes: obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation; establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure; adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit; and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
The invention also provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method when executing the computer program.
The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program for executing the above method.
The method and the system for evaluating the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system can reflect the actual condition of the actual pipeline system, and can be used for evaluating the gas supply safety of the natural gas pipeline system, identifying key units and demand weak points influencing gas supply in the pipeline system, evaluating measures for improving the gas supply reliability and the like.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic illustration of a natural gas pipeline system gas supply strategy provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a method for evaluating reliability of gas supply of a natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart illustrating reliability of gas supply to a natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram illustrating a state transition of a long distance natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating boundary conditions of a state transition of a long distance natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of an implementation of natural gas demand prediction according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an LDC according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 8 is a schematic view illustrating a process of calculating injection and production reliability of the gas storage system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 9 is a schematic general flow chart of a method for evaluating reliability of gas supply of a natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 10 is a schematic structural diagram of a gas supply reliability evaluation system of a natural gas pipeline system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to the embodiments and the accompanying drawings. The exemplary embodiments and descriptions of the present invention are provided to explain the present invention, but not to limit the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the principle of the natural gas pipeline system is shown in fig. 1, wherein numeral 1 is a natural gas supply direction, which indicates that the natural gas long-distance pipeline system supplies gas to a downstream market; the number 2 is the flowing direction of natural gas and indicates that the gas storage is in a gas injection state; the number 3 is the natural gas flowing direction and indicates that the gas storage is in a gas production state; the number 4 is a signal transmission direction, and indicates that when the gas supply amount of the long-distance pipeline is larger than the required gas amount, redundant gas needs to be injected into the gas storage system; and the number 5 is a signal transmission direction, which indicates that when the gas supply amount of the long-distance pipeline is less than the gas demand amount of the market, insufficient gas needs to be supplemented by the gas storage. Based on the structure, in order to evaluate the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system, firstly, the gas supply quantity of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the demand quantity of a target market are calculated, the supply and demand difference of each day is determined, meanwhile, the working characteristics of the gas storage are considered, when the gas supply quantity is greater than the demand quantity, surplus gas is injected into the gas storage, when the gas supply quantity is less than the demand quantity, insufficient gas is supplemented by the gas storage, and therefore the injection and production reliability of the gas storage system needs to be evaluated, and whether the gas storage system can complete a specified injection and production task or not is judged; and finally, obtaining the total gas quantity supplied to the target market by the pipeline system, and evaluating the reliability of gas supply of the pipeline system from two angles of gas quantity and time based on the total gas quantity.
Referring to fig. 2, the method for evaluating the reliability of gas supply of the natural gas pipeline system provided by the present invention specifically includes: s101, calculating to obtain gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance transmission pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method; s102, calculating to obtain natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side; s103, acquiring gas injection and production task data of the gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply amount data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline and the natural gas demand data; s104, obtaining operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients; and S105, obtaining an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the step S101 specifically includes: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule. In the embodiment, the air supply amount of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system is mainly calculated; the uncertainty of the operation state of the system is considered, Monte Carlo simulation is firstly adopted to describe the state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system, then the dynamic behavior of the pipeline system is considered, and the characteristic line method of unsteady hydraulic calculation is adopted to analyze the gas supply flow after the state transfer of the system, so that the daily gas supply amount of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system is calculated; the specific calculation method and formula will be explained in the following embodiments, and will not be described in detail here.
In an embodiment of the present invention, the step S102 specifically includes: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function; in this example, the target market natural gas forecast is primarily; and (4) considering the uncertainty of market demand, predicting the natural gas demand of the target market by adopting a load continuous curve technology based on demand side analysis, and calculating to obtain the daily demand capacity of the target market.
And then, based on the calculation results of the S101 and the S102, obtaining the supply-demand difference between the long-distance pipeline system and the target market, and determining the gas injection and production tasks of the gas storage system. And (4) considering the uncertainty of the running state of the gas storage, calculating the injection and production reliability of the gas storage by adopting a gas storage reliability integrated analysis method, and judging whether the gas storage can complete the specified task or not. The step S104 is a step of calculating the gas storage injection and production reliability, and in an embodiment of the present invention, the step S104 may further include: obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation; establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure; adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit; and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
Finally, according to the data obtained by the calculation, the evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the pipeline system can be effectively obtained by calculation, and specifically, in an embodiment of the present invention, in the step S105, the evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system is obtained mainly by the following formula:
in the above formula, Rsystem(j) Representing the gas supply reliability coefficient of the jth iterative computation; t is task time; ciIndicating a demand fulfillment condition for day i or hour; and N is the Monte Carlo simulation times, and the gas supply reliability is obtained by calculating the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
In the link, the total gas quantity obtained by the target market is obtained mainly by the steps, and the gas supply reliability is evaluated from two angles of gas quantity and time; the specific calculation formula is as follows, and for a certain Monte Carlo simulation:
in the above formula: rsystem(j) Representing the reliability of the gas supply of the jth iterative computation, wherein T is the task time and day; ciIndicating a satisfactory demand condition for day i or hour, when based on a time angle,
when based on gas quantity angle
XiAir supply amount, Nm, of the system for day i or hour3；DiIs the natural gas demand on day i or hour.
Based on N monte carlo simulations, the average gas supply reliability of the system can be calculated by the following formula:
in order to understand the relationship between the above steps and the overall flow of the evaluation of the reliability of the gas supply of the natural gas pipeline system provided by the present invention, further reference is made to fig. 3; in the following, the embodiments of the steps in the actual operation will be taken as examples to further explain the above embodiments, and it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the following embodiments are only provided for understanding the specific aspects of the present invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
The evaluation main body of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system can be divided into four steps, namely calculation of the gas supply quantity of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system, prediction of target market demand, calculation of the injection and production reliability of the gas storage warehouse and evaluation of the gas supply reliability of the pipeline system.
1. The method is used for calculating the gas supply amount of the long-distance pipeline system, and aims to calculate the gas amount supplied to the market in the task time of the long-distance pipeline system. Firstly, a Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate the state transition process of the system, and the specific implementation scheme is as follows:
the system operation state is determined by the states of the units in the system together, and the states of the system are numbered by sequencing the possible combinations of all the states of the units in the system. Specifically, let k denote the operating state of the system and t denote the moment at which the transition occurs. Consider the general transfer process: if the system changes to the state k ═ m at the time t', the probability transition kernel determining that the system makes the next transition at the time t and enters the state k ═ n is:
K(t,k＝n|t′,k＝m)＝T(t|t′,k＝m)·C(k＝n|t,k＝m) (3)
wherein T (T | T ', k ═ m) is the conditional probability density of the last transition of a given system at time T ' and entering state k ═ m, the next transition of the given system between T and T + dt, and T (T | T ', k ═ m) dt is its conditional probability; c (k ═ n | k ═ m, t) is the conditional probability that the system enters state k ═ n given that the system initial state is k ═ m and that the state transition condition occurs at time t (as shown in fig. 4).
Aiming at a natural gas long-distance pipeline system, the invention mainly adopts a time sequence Monte Carlo method to simulate the system state transfer process, and the uncertainty of the system running state is considered in the method. The specific simulation process is to sample the time T of the next state transition based on the conditional probability density T (T | T', k ═ m), and then sample the system transition state according to the conditional probability C (k ═ n | k ═ m, T). This sampling process is repeated until the system reaches the task time. According to the simulation result, the number of all possible operation states of the system in the task time, the occurrence time of each state and the duration of each state can be obtained.
Analyzing the air supply flow after the system state is transferred by adopting a characteristic line method of unsteady hydraulic calculation and combining corresponding boundary conditions, and determining the change rule of the air supply flow of the system; the characteristic line equation is:
the main function of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system is to supply gas for downstream markets, and when the system is in state transition, the important principle of operation regulation is to ensure normal gas supply of the system to the maximum extent. Therefore, the corresponding boundary condition needs to be introduced into the characteristic line equation to ensure the maximum air supply amount of the system:
for each air supply point, firstly, the output quantity of each air supply point of the system is kept as the task air supply quantity, and the pressure of the air supply point is gradually reduced, wherein the stage is called as a flow control stage; when the pressure is reduced to the set lowest pressure (P)set) While maintaining the supply air point pressure at the set minimum pressure (P)set) The air supply amount is decreased until the system reaches a stable air supply amount in the operation state or a new operation state transition occurs, which is called a pressure control stage, as shown in fig. 5. And finally, combining the unsteady hydraulic calculation process with the system state transition simulation to obtain the air supply quantity of the system at each moment.
2. In the process of predicting the natural gas demand of the target market, the main purpose is to predict the required natural gas amount of the target market at each moment in the mission time. Specifically referring to fig. 6, first, the user types of the target market and the requirement characteristics of each user type are determined; then determining the total demand proportion of each user type and the monthly uneven coefficient corresponding to each user type; and calculating the monthly uneven coefficient of the total demand based on the monthly uneven coefficients of different user types, and dividing the task time into different demand intervals such as a low demand period, an average demand period and a high demand period based on the monthly uneven coefficient of the total demand. And describing natural gas requirements in different requirement intervals by adopting load requirement curve distribution, constructing a requirement distribution function, and selecting a common probability distribution function to describe the requirement. Market demand is predicted by sampling random numbers from common probability distribution functions. The natural gas market demand load continuous curve is obtained by rearranging the time sequence load curve according to the size sequence. It contains a lot of information such as maximum load, minimum load, load accumulation duration, etc., and its schematic diagram is shown in fig. 7; in fig. 7, the abscissa represents the market demand level d, and the ordinate represents the duration t. dminAnd dmaxRepresenting the minimum and maximum demand levels of the task time, respectively. An arbitrary point (d, t) in the curve represents the duration t of the demand being equal to or greater than a certain demand level d. Thus, a probability P (d) may be defined that the demand is less than or equal to d：
The probability function p (d) satisfies the following properties:
prob [ D ≦ D ] since market demand D is a continuous random variable]＝Prob[D＜d]Thus the probability function p (d) is an undiminished function and continues right; and P is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1 (d),
since the probability function p (d) satisfies three properties of the distribution function, p (d) can be described by some common probability distribution functions such as truncated normal distribution, truncated weibull distribution, etc., and the market demand can be predicted by sampling random numbers from the probability distribution.
3. In the step of calculating the gas storage injection and production reliability, the daily gas supply quantity of the long-distance pipeline system and the daily demand quantity of the target market are obtained through calculation or prediction of the steps, so that the difference between the supply and demand is calculated, the gas injection and production task of the gas storage is determined, and then whether the gas storage system can complete the given gas injection and production task is judged through calculating the gas storage injection and production reliability. The gas storage injection and production reliability calculation process can firstly carry out hydraulic calculation on the gas storage to obtain the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system for a given gas injection and production task; then, based on the mechanisms of structural failure and overload failure, establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit, and calculating the reliability of the units by adopting Monte Carlo simulation; and then, by using a system reliability theory, evaluating the reliability of the gas storage subsystem such as an injection and production well system and a ground system, thereby obtaining the reliability of the gas storage system. And according to the evaluation result of the reliability of the gas storage system, whether the gas storage can complete the given gas injection and production task can be judged. An embodiment thereof is schematically shown in FIG. 8; according to the injection and production reliability calculation result of the gas storage system, whether the system can complete the specified injection and production task can be judged, and therefore the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system can be obtained.
4. And finally, performing a pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation link, wherein the gas supply quantity calculation, the market demand prediction and the gas storage injection and production reliability calculation of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system are performed in the same Monte Carlo simulation. For each Monte Carlo simulation, the total air supply quantity of the system and the demand quantity of the target market need to be calculated, so that the reliability of the system air supply is evaluated, and a specific evaluation formula is as follows:
in the formula: rsystem(j) Representing the reliability of the gas supply of the jth iterative computation, wherein T is the task time and day; ciIndicating a satisfactory demand condition for day i or hour, when based on a time angle,
when based on gas quantity angle
XiAir supply amount, Nm, of the system for day i or hour3；DiIs the natural gas demand on day i or hour.
Based on N monte carlo simulations, the average gas supply reliability of the system can be calculated by the following formula:
a general embodiment of which is shown in figure 9.
Referring to fig. 10 again, the present invention further provides an evaluation system for gas supply reliability of a natural gas pipeline system, where the evaluation system includes a gas supply calculation module, a demand calculation module, a gas storage reliability calculation module, and an evaluation module; the gas supply calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance transmission pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method; the demand calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side; the gas storage reliability calculation module is used for acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline and the natural gas demand data; obtaining operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of the pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients; and the evaluation module is used for calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply amount data of the pipeline system.
In the above embodiment, the supply air calculation module further includes: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule.
In the above embodiment, the requirement calculating module further includes: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; and acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function.
In the above embodiment, the gas storage reliability calculation module further includes: obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation; establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure; adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit; and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
The invention also provides a computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method when executing the computer program.
The present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium storing a computer program for executing the above method.
The method and the system for evaluating the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system can reflect the actual condition of the actual pipeline system, and can be used for evaluating the gas supply safety of the natural gas pipeline system, identifying key units and demand weak points influencing gas supply in the pipeline system, evaluating measures for improving the gas supply reliability and the like.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating reliability of gas supply of a natural gas pipeline system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
calculating and obtaining the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method;
calculating to obtain natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side;
acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the long-distance natural gas pipeline and the natural gas demand data;
obtaining operation parameters of a gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of a pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients;
obtaining an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply amount data of the pipeline system;
according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system, calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system, wherein the evaluation result comprises the following steps: and calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system by the following formula:
in the above formula, Rsystem(j) Representing the reliability of the gas supply of the j iteration calculation; t is task time; ciIndicating a demand fulfillment condition for day i or hour; n is the Monte Carlo simulation times; and the gas supply reliability is obtained by calculating the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
2. The method for evaluating the reliability of gas supply to a natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1, wherein the calculating the gas supply data of the long-distance natural gas pipeline by the monte carlo simulation method comprises: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule.
3. The method for evaluating reliability of gas supply to a natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1, wherein the calculating to obtain natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technique of demand side analysis comprises: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; and acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function.
4. The method for evaluating the reliability of gas supply of a natural gas pipeline system according to claim 1, wherein the obtaining of the operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation and the obtaining of the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data comprise:
obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation;
establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure;
adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit;
and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
5. The evaluation system for the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system is characterized by comprising a gas supply calculation module, a demand calculation module, a gas storage reliability calculation module and an evaluation module;
the gas supply calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance transmission pipeline by a Monte Carlo simulation method;
the demand calculation module is used for calculating and obtaining natural gas demand data according to a load continuous curve technology analyzed on a demand side;
the gas storage reliability calculation module is used for acquiring gas injection and production task data of a gas storage system according to the difference between the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline and the natural gas demand data; obtaining operation parameters of the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation, obtaining injection and production reliability coefficients of the gas storage system through calculation according to the operation parameters and the injection and production task data, and obtaining gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficients;
the evaluation module is used for calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system;
according to the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system, calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system, wherein the evaluation result comprises the following steps: and calculating to obtain an evaluation result of the gas supply reliability of the natural gas pipeline system by the following formula:
in the above formula, Rsystem(j) Representing the reliability of the gas supply of the j iteration calculation; t is task time; ciIndicating a demand fulfillment condition for day i or hour; n is the Monte Carlo simulation times; and the gas supply reliability is obtained by calculating the natural gas demand data and the gas supply quantity data of the natural gas pipeline system.
6. The natural gas pipeline system gas supply reliability evaluation system of claim 5, wherein the gas supply calculation module further comprises: simulating a state transfer process of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system by a Monte Carlo simulation method to obtain state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; analyzing the gas supply flow of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system after state transition according to a characteristic line equation calculated by unsteady state waterpower to obtain a gas supply flow change rule of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system; and calculating to obtain the gas supply data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline according to the state data of the natural gas long-distance pipeline system and the gas supply flow change rule.
7. The system for evaluating reliability of gas supply to a natural gas pipeline system of claim 5, wherein the demand computation module further comprises: obtaining a user type of a target market and corresponding demand characteristics; constructing a demand distribution function through a load continuous curve technology analyzed by a demand side; and acquiring natural gas demand data according to the demand distribution function.
8. The system for evaluating reliability of gas supply to a natural gas pipeline system of claim 5, wherein the gas storage reliability calculation module further comprises:
obtaining the operation parameters of each unit in the gas storage system through hydraulic calculation;
establishing a failure limit state equation of each unit based on a mechanism of structural failure and overload failure;
adopting Monte Carlo simulation to calculate the reliability of the units to obtain the reliability coefficient of each unit;
and acquiring the injection and production reliability coefficient of the gas storage system according to the reliability coefficient of each unit, and judging whether the gas storage system can complete a preset injection and production task and the gas supply data of the natural gas pipeline system according to the injection and production reliability coefficient.
9. A computer device comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the processor implements the method of any one of claims 1 to 4 when executing the computer program.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer-readable storage medium stores a computer program for executing the method of any one of claims 1 to 4.
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