CN109118718A - Rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method, basin debris flow early-warning method occur for mud-rock flow - Google Patents
Rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method, basin debris flow early-warning method occur for mud-rock flow Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses mud-rock flow and rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method, debris flow early-warning method occurs.I-D curve threshold value construction method of the present invention is obtained first for watershed system data needed for Richard model and Van Genuchten equation numerical simulation, start hydrological simulation process under the conditions of given rainfall intensity, each grid stability in basin is judged along time series and produces stream situation, calculate water and soil mixture bulk density, record meets the data at control point to be fitted I-D curve, finally obtains one group of I-D threshold value under the conditions of previous rainfall amount.Present invention simultaneously provides corresponding basin debris flow early-warning methods.The method of the present invention abandons the design that matched curve is analyzed by historical data statistics, realizes the breakthrough that mud-rock flow occurrence condition threshold value is constructed from measurement mud-rock flow feature dynamic indicator itself.Method can effectively solve the problem that the problem of debris flow early-warning is implemented using I-D curve threshold value in unga(u)ged basin.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the method for early warning that rainfall induces mud-rock flow, go through more particularly to one kind by rainfall intensity-rainfall
When curve threshold value (I-D curve threshold value) implement debris flow early-warning method, belong to disaster prevention technical field.
Background technique
Rainfall is the key factor for triggering mud-rock flow.Scholars are corresponding using rainfall parameter (or combination between parameter)
Mud-rock flow event come study triggering mud-rock flow condition of raining empirical value.By established threshold value relationship and lasting
Rainfall monitoring data realize the purpose to Debris Flow Forecast.Study at present most commonly used empirical relation be Cain (1980) most
Threshold value (the I-D curve threshold value) when rainfall intensity-rainfall first proposed is held, general expression way are I=δ Dβ, wherein I table
Show that the average rainfall intensity (mm/h) (y-axis) of rainfall, D indicate the duration (h) (x-axis) of rainfall, δ and β are experience system
Number.When I-D curve threshold value can reveal that minimum rainfall intensity needed for mud-rock flow and rainfall are held in trigger area, triggering is utilized
The lower envelope line of mud-rock flow determines whether there is mud-rock flow.The primitive decision condition that mud-rock flow occurs are as follows: be higher than lower envelope line
Rainfall intensity-rainfall when holding combination all think that mud-rock flow can be triggered.
In the prior art, the universal way for establishing I-D curve threshold value is required to rely on largely comprising rainfall data and mudstone
The historical data for flowing Disaster Event, is fitted to obtain an I-D curvilinear equation by the statistical analysis to these historical datas.This
Class method is primarily present five aspect defects: one is supervised to be fitted rainfall data in the necessary basin of I-D curve using statistical method
Debris flow observes data in measured data and basin, in practical projects, since catchment basin of debris flow tends to belong to economical production
Condition backward areas do not set up perfect meteorological disaster observation point in basin, lack rainfall data monitoring number in basin
Data are observed according to debris flow in basin, thus the applicable I-D curve threshold value in this basin can not be constructed, it also just can not benefit
Implement debris flow early-warning with it.Secondly, I-D curve threshold value be a strip area experience curve.Thus theoretically statistics obtains
Mudstone flow point more concentrate, weather, the difference of geologic(al) factor are smaller, and the variability of acquired I-D curve threshold value is smaller, base
It is more accurate in the Debris Flow Forecast of I-D curve threshold value.But the actual situation is that the data as used in fitting I-D curvilinear equation
Often precision it is lower, thus cause established process repeatability poor.Thirdly, the I-D that establishes by empirical method it is bent
Line threshold value does not account for underlying surface and generated effect occurs to mud-rock flow, including to solids needed for debris flow formation
Two necessary conditions of run-off that source supply is formed with rainfall fully consider.Four, statistical analysis technique is fitted the curve side I-D
Journey is necessarily dependent upon a large amount of historical datas comprising rainfall data and mud-stone flow disaster event, for Cross Some Region Without Data or money
Expect insufficient area, is just difficult with this method and implements debris flow early-warning.Five, in the prior art, every set is based on I-D curve
An I-D curve threshold value is all only arranged in mud-rock flow monitoring/early warning scheme of threshold value.It combines and is located at when rainfall intensity-rainfall is held
When coordinates regional under I-D curve threshold value, no mud-rock flow is indicated, when rainfall intensity-rainfall is held, combination is located at I-D curve
When coordinate space on threshold value, mud-rock flow is indicated.Such debris flow early-warning scheme ignores I-D curve in principle
The constraint condition of threshold value ignores the early warning boundary of I-D curve threshold value in practical early warning.
Summary of the invention
The purpose of the present invention is to the deficiencies in the prior art, and it is bent to provide a kind of I-D based on mud-rock flow physical process
Line threshold value construction method, and the method for early warning of the rainfall induction mud-rock flow using this method realization.
To achieve the above object, present invention firstly provides a kind of mud-rock flows, and rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method occurs,
Its technical solution is as follows:
A kind of mud-rock flow generation rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method, it is characterised in that:
Firstly, obtaining catchment basin of debris flow data, the catchment basin of debris flow data include in basin for one-dimensional unsaturation
Data needed for Richard mathematical model and Van Genuchten equation hydrologic process numerical simulation；After determining water and soil coupling
Mixture bulk density control point ρ ', determine hydrological simulation calculate previous rainfall amount Ar '；
Secondly, starting hydrological simulation process under conditions of given rainfall intensity I, combine one-dimensional unsaturation Richard number
Model, Van Genuchten equation progress hydrologic process numerical simulation are learned, is determined for calculating basin slope stability safety
The crucial hydrologic parameter of coefficient Fs；
Again, the Fs value for calculating each grid of catchment basin of debris flow, judges each grid stability, along time series tentative calculation
Mixture bulk density ρ in current basin after water and soil coupling, captures the trial result mixture bulk density ρ=water and soil mixture bulk density control
The point for making point ρ ' determines that the point is fitting data point, the corresponding rainfall duration D of record fitting data point, rainfall intensity I；
Finally, being fitted to obtain I-D curve I=δ D of basin under the conditions of previous rainfall amount Ar ' using all fitting data pointsβ, I-D curve threshold value is drawn on coordinate system.
It is that a kind of I-D based on mud-rock flow physical process is bent that rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method, which occurs, for above-mentioned mud-rock flow
Line threshold value construction method, main technical principle are: one, data needed in acquisition for hydrologic process numerical simulation are (logical
Often watershed system data) on the basis of, use with water and soil coupling feature variation tendency in debris flow formation physical process be according to
According to analysis means, (D) data point when capturing rainfall intensity (I), rainfall in rainfall-debris flow formation time series and holding
For being fitted I-D curvilinear equation (i.e. threshold value).The water and soil coupling feature variation tendency foundation specifically used was ground in early period
On the basis of studying carefully, with the dynamic change of the water and soil mixture value of bulk density ρ of debris flow body be according to judge debris flow formation occur into
Cheng Bianhua.When the water and soil mixture value of bulk density ρ of tentative calculation current in time series reaches preset water and soil mixture bulk density control
When point ρ ', judge that current point is fitting data point.Two, it is coupled using ZL 201210193426.4 is a kind of based on basin water-soil
Debris Flow Forecast method disclosed in method realize the dynamic of water and soil mixture value of bulk density ρ measured.Specifically, pass through convection current
Numeric field data (including landform, land use basic data) carries out rasterizing processing, establishes basin grid cell and obtains each grid
The background data of lattice unit；Basin Rainfall spatial distribution data and grid cell background data are regard as input data, using dividing
Cloth hydrological model obtains under condition of raining in basin water content of soil vertical characteristics data of each grid cell and each
The run-off data that grid cell is formed, and then calculate the stability of slope for determining each grid cell in region under condition of raining
Property safety coefficient Fs, unstability bulk of solid matter total amount WS, region runoff volume total amount Ww, finally calculate and determine water and soil mixture
Value of bulk density ρ.Three, hydrological distribution model select be for by method for numerical simulation complete regional hydrological processes simulation, to
Crucial hydrologic parameter needed for accurately obtaining the dynamic measurement for water and soil mixture value of bulk density ρ as far as possible.Mud-stone flow disaster
Mostly occur in rainy season, thus the variation characteristic key point of the inside soil body hydrologic parameter during one rainfall event.The present invention
Rainfall is analyzed in the general hydrologic process of underlying surface according to early-stage study are as follows: the soil body is initially unsaturated state, but with
The water content of the continuous action of rainfall infiltration, inside soil body continues to increase, matric suction (ψ) rapid drawdown of inside soil body, Jin Erhui
Cause to face sediment failure directly.Water content of soil and base to fully demonstrate inside soil body in hydrologic process simulation as a result,
The changing rule of matter suction, the present invention select to combine one-dimensional unsaturation Richard mathematical model (formula 1-1) and Van
Genuchten equation (Formula 2) description Rainfall Infiltration physical process.
The several of rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method occur the present invention further provides above-mentioned mud-rock flow can be independently real
The prioritization scheme applied, specifically includes:
Prioritization scheme one, Richard mathematical model primary condition
Primary condition: soil body volumetric water content θ is determined as soil body initial volume water content θa, present invention design Richard
Mathematical model primary condition is controlled by formula 1-2.Upper boundary conditions: coboundary is infiltrated using runoff yield excess mechanism control, that is, works as drop
Water intensity is less than infiltration of ground surface ability (fs) when, the present invention designs Richard mathematical model upper boundary conditions and is controlled by formula 1-3.
When precipitation intensity is more than the infiltration capacity (f of earth's surfaces) after be converted into runoff immediately and flow away, do not consider depression ponding has indentation
It seeps, earth's surface is saturated at this time, and the boundary condition of formula 1-3 control is converted into θ=θ since thens(θsIt is corresponding full for certain soil types
And volumetric water content).Downstream condition: early-stage study shows that rainfall infiltration is only capable of influencing to be located at topsoil or less 40cm or so
The water content of soil of soil layer can not carry out exchange of moisture with level of ground water (buried depth number meter), therefore can be as constraint condition.
Based on above-mentioned analysis, the Richard mathematical model downstream condition that the present invention designs is controlled by formula 1-4.Prioritization scheme as a result,
Middle Richard mathematical model is following equation group:
In formula, the current soil body volumetric(al) moisture content of θ-, mm,
D (θ)=K (θ)/(d θ/d ψ)-unsaturated soil diffusivity, mm3/ h, ψ are determining according to formula 2,
K (θ)-soil body unsaturated hydraulic conductivity mm/h is determined according to formula 3, formula 4
The current precipitation intensity of R (t)-, mm/h, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
θa- soil body initial volume water content, % is determining according to conventional method,
The vertical coordinate of z-is positive downwards using earth's surface as origin, mm, and catchment basin of debris flow data determine,
L-lower boundary depth, m, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
M=1/ (1-n) formula 4
In formula, k0Unsaturation infiltrated water of-every layer soil under the conditions of residual water content, catchment basin of debris flow data are true
It is fixed,
SeThe effective saturation degree of-soil body, %, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
M, n-profile shape parameter, n are determined by catchment basin of debris flow,
ks- topsoil infiltrated water, area data is determining,
E-natural constant.
Optimize the safety factor of slope stability Fs of two schemes, each grid cell
The principal element for causing shallow failure includes rapid drop that precipitation infiltration leads to unsaturation slopes internal matrix suction
Low or saturated soil slopes internal void water pressure two aspect of promotion.Debris Flow is specifically contemplated that in rainy season, in rain
Before Ji Lailin, slopes are generally all in unsaturated state.Rainfall infiltration makes the increase of water content of soil, in turn results in soil
The matric suction of body reduces, and is the main inducing for leading to slope surface sediment failure.Here, mole-coulomb based on unsaturated soil is broken
Bad criterion and infinite slopes model, the present invention are established for determining the two sides slope texture determining type in catchment basin of debris flow
(formula 5), with optimisation technique scheme.
In formula,The internal friction angle of-the soil body, °, investigation sampling is determined with testing experiment,
The gradient of each grid of λ-, °, catchment basin of debris flow data determine,
C-soil body cohesive force, kPa, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining,
ψ-soil body matric suction, kPa, formula 2 determine
- relevant to matric suction Soil Parameters, value internal friction angle°,
γt- soil body density, g/cm3, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining,
Ds- each grid unstability soil thickness, m take when layering 5 tentative calculation of substitution formula of grid soil thickness is obtained Fs < 1
Corresponding soil thickness value.
γt- soil body density, g/cm3, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining.
Prioritization scheme three: subdivision previous rainfall amount Ar ' and its corresponding I-D curve threshold value
When determining the previous rainfall amount Ar ' for hydrological simulation calculating according to existing research achievement, first by previous rainfall amount
Ar ' is set as an interval value, then interval value is divided into several magnitude Ar 'i, 5mm~15mm is differed between magnitude.Then will
Different magnitude of previous rainfall amount Ar 'iAs hydrological model input condition, different magnitude previous rainfall amount Ar ' are obtainediCorresponding I-D
Curve threshold value, to improve the sensitivity of I-D curve threshold value.
Prioritization scheme four: the early warning boundary of setting I-D curve threshold value
The prior art ignores I-D in practical early warning there are the constraint condition for ignoring I-D curve threshold value in technical principle
The defect on the early warning boundary of curve threshold value.For this purpose, further rainfall I-D curve threshold value structure is occurred for above-mentioned mud-rock flow by the present invention
The mixture bulk density control point ρ ' of construction method is set as multiple points in an interval value, and each point, which represents different control, to be held
Weight, all the points form mud-rock flow water and soil mixing bulk density value range.In this way, being constructed under the conditions of each previous rainfall amount Ar '
The spacing of the I-D curve threshold value of the different control point ρ ' of one group of correspondence, each curve threshold value and adjacent curve threshold value is the song
The early warning boundary of line threshold value.In practical early warning, when the maximum control point ρ ' curve of building gained and minimum control point ρ ' curve threshold
Value spacing is bigger, and the probability for indicating that mud-rock flow occurs is bigger；It is on the contrary then mud-rock flow probability of happening is low.This optimization can be enriched
The content of mud-rock flow prediction occurring information.Especially when implementing debris flow early-warning under forecasting condition of raining, warning information abundant
With more obvious value.
Prioritization scheme five: water and soil mixture bulk density control point ρ ', the previous rainfall amount Ar ' of specific catchment basin of debris flow are determined
The above-mentioned mud-rock flow of the present invention occurs what rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method needed to obtain first under normal circumstances
Catchment basin of debris flow data are mainly used for one-dimensional unsaturation Richard mathematical model and Van Genuchten equation hydrologic process
Underlying Surface Data needed for numerical simulation.But for having rainfall data monitoring data and debris flow in basin in basin
The catchment basin of debris flow for observing data, can further use optimal conditions, i.e., increase in the basin data of acquisition and drop in basin
Debris flow observes data in rain data monitoring data, basin, analyzes this basin mud-rock flow using this two data specific aim
And the specific targets of condition of raining, it determines the water and soil mixture bulk density of typical mud-rock flow in this basin and is denoted as water and soil coupling
Mixture bulk density control point ρ ' after conjunction, the previous rainfall amount for determining that typical mud-rock flow occurs in this basin are denoted as hydrological simulation meter
The previous rainfall amount Ar ' of calculation, to improve constructed I-D curve threshold value to the sensibility in specific basin.
Rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method occurs based on above-mentioned mud-rock flow, present invention simultaneously provides a kind of mud-rock flow hairs
Raw rainfall method for early warning, technical solution is:
It is a kind of that the basin debris flow early-warning side that rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method is realized occurring using above-mentioned mud-rock flow
Method, it is characterised in that: rainfall monitoring system is arranged in catchment basin of debris flow, including the precipitation rain fall sensor that is distributed in basin with
Control centre, and the I-D curve threshold value of preset difference previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of difference control point ρ ' in systems；
By mud-rock flow rainfall I-D occurs for the I-D curve threshold value of the difference previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of difference control point ρ '
Curve threshold value construction method determines；Arithmetic center carries into execution a plan one and/or scheme two:
Scheme one: according to weather forecast rainfall data, when in calculating previous rainfall amount condition Ar1Under rainfall intensity-rainfall
Combination is located at Ar when holding1Between corresponding one group of I-D curve threshold value when region, debris flow early-warning signal is issued；
Scheme two: after rainfall occurs, system centre is according to rainfall data calculate real-time previous rainfall amount value in real time in basin
Ar2It is combined when being held with real-time rainfall intensity-rainfall, and according to Ar2Select different previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of I-D
Curve threshold value issues debris flow early-warning letter if combination region between I-D curve threshold value when rainfall intensity-rainfall in real time is held
Number.
Compared with prior art, the beneficial effects of the present invention are: (1) I-D curve threshold value construction method provided by the invention
The design that the prior art uses statistical analysis technique matched curve on the basis of historical data data is got rid of, using basis
Debris flow formation occurring principle finds data point for being fitted I-D curve by condition of debris flow body physical features change procedure
The new design of equation is realized from measurement mud-rock flow feature dynamic indicator itself, rather than from mathematical statistics means structure
Build the breakthrough of mud-rock flow occurrence condition threshold value.The method of the present invention is without rainfall data monitoring data and basin in basin as a result,
Interior debris flow observation data (this two data is necessary to the prior art), it is only necessary to the Underlying Surface Data of catchment basin of debris flow
Can start up curve building process, and obtain the I-D curve threshold value suitable for this basin.Thus, the method for the present invention can be effective
Solve the problems, such as that non-avaible catchment basin of debris flow implements debris flow early-warning using I-D curve threshold value.(2) present invention is using according to mud
Rock glacier forms occurring principle, dynamically using debris flow body physical features change procedure as condition, from measurement mud-rock flow feature itself
Index finds data point and embodies mud-rock flow genetis method mechanism for being fitted the new design of I-D curvilinear equation, and method is more scientific
Principle.(3) hydrology numerical simulation calculation combined using Richard equation with Van Genuchten equation, and it is further excellent
Change primary condition and plan boundary condition, makes the pass for being used for mud-rock flow water and soil mixture capacity performance index dynamic analysis obtained by operation
Key hydrologic parameter more meets Debris Flow season condition of raining and multiple area's soil body condition flag.(4) due to using numerical simulation
Calculate, allow to will affect debris flow formation generation previous rainfall amount Ar be subdivided into different magnitudes, and finally obtain it is right with it
The I-D curve threshold value answered.Using this as a result, can be opened in the mud-rock flow rainfall early warning of basin for different previous rainfall amount conditions
With different I-D curve threshold values, to improve the sensitivity and whole early warning validity of I-D curve threshold value.(5) structure of the present invention
It is standard that the method for building I-D curve threshold value, which is using water and soil conjugates density in mud-rock flow generating process, and gained threshold value corresponds to
The different densities value of mud-rock flow.Since there is the observation density of mud-rock flow boundary value to constrain (1.2g/cm3~2.3g/cm3), institute
Different early warning bounds are all had with the mud-rock flow I-D curve threshold value under the conditions of different previous rainfall amount Ar '.In mud-rock flow
In early warning, increase the limitation for utilizing early warning bounds, i.e., monitors group when rainfall intensity-rainfall is held simultaneously in prealarming process
Chalaza and two indexs of I-D curve threshold boundaries condition can significantly facilitate the rate of false alarm for reducing mud-rock flow.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the tributary topographic map in the basin little Jiang.
Fig. 2 is one technology path schematic diagram of embodiment.
Fig. 3 is that embodiment one is fitted I-D curve threshold figure.
Specific embodiment
With reference to the accompanying drawing, the preferred embodiment of the present invention is further described.
Embodiment one
As shown in FIG. 1 to 3, certain mud-rock flow Mud-stone Flow of Gullies being constructed with the method for the present invention, rainfall I-D curve threshold occurs
Value.
Certain mud-rock flow channel is located at Yunnan Province, belongs to the tributary (Fig. 1) in the basin little Jiang.Neotectonic movement is strong in ditch, ground
Frequent activity is shaken, rock mass is incoherent, and along with strong slacking, slope surface layer has tens of meters of thick bulk solids
Substance is the important solid material resource of debris flow.Maximum precipitation appears in the area height above sea level 2500m~3000m in basin,
Annual precipitation 1200mm, the area are exactly that certain gully mud-rock flow forms area.It is most frequent that the ditch becomes the basin little Jiang debris flow occurrence
Debris flow gully.Data source for the present embodiment accumulates nearly 60 years mud-rock flow field inspection numbers in the observation station in basin
According to.
Fig. 2 be technology path schematic diagram (in figure " basin " be " catchment basin of debris flow " abbreviation).
Step S1, area data is obtained
It determines mud-rock flow channel definition, obtains area data.Area data includes being used for one-dimensional unsaturation Richard number
Region underlying surface master data needed for learning model and Van Genuchten equation hydrologic process numerical simulation (including the gradient
Figure, land-use map, soil thickness distribution map, regional soil Map of Distributions of Types, all kinds of Soil Hydrological supplemental characteristics, all kinds of soil
Earth physical and mechanical parameter data, vegetation index distribution map etc.), region DEM raster data.Region underlying surface master data is matched
It sets in each DEM grid.
The digital elevation model (DEM) of certain channel is generated by 1:10000 topographic map, grid precision 10m.Mainly divide in ditch
3 kinds of soil types of cloth include: dry red soil, red-yellow soil and gravelly soil, wherein gravelly soil be widely distributed in landslide in Jiang family's ditch with
It is the primary solids substance source of Debris Flow Evolution at avalanche, the hydrology parameter of every kind of soil is obtained by national Soil Database
Take (table 1).The data that channel land use pattern figure is 2000, the related such as parameter vegetation index of every kind of land use
(NDVI) MODIS database, resolution ratio 250m are derived from.Underlying surface basic data for hydrological analysis needs to utilize
Resampling function in ArcGIS obtains the data consistent with DEM grid precision.
1 soil types of table and Hydrological Dynamics parameter for numerical simulation calculation
Determine water and soil mixture bulk density control point ρ ' in 1.2g/cm according to the prior art3~2.3g/cm3, divided
Are as follows: 1.2g/cm3、1.5g/cm3、2.0g/cm3、2.2g/cm34 control points, determine mud-rock flow occur previous rainfall amount Ar '=
1mm~100mm, and it is divided into 5mm, 10mm, 20mm, 30mm, 40mm, 50mm, 60mm, 75mm, 85mm, 100mm etc. 10
A magnitude.
Investigation sampling and testing experiment determine related parameters in soil mechanics in region.By Hydrological Dynamics parameter, parameters in soil mechanics
According to soil types distribution distribution into each DEM grid cell.Including (table 1, table 2): soil body internal friction angleThe soil body
Cohesive force c, Soil Parameters relevant to matric suctionValue internal friction angleSoil body density γt, topsoil infiltrated water fs、
Soil body unsaturation parameter alpha.
2 parameters in soil mechanics of table
Following steps S2, step S3, step S4, using 10 magnitude previous rainfall amount Ar ' that step S1 is divided as defeated
Enter condition, starts the operation of hydrologic process numerical simulation (t=0), the water and soil mixing currently excited along time series tentative calculation basin
Object bulk density ρ.Material calculation is 1h (I variation range: 1mm/h-ID=1)。
Step S2, hydrologic process numerical simulation
In the case where giving prophase programming Ar ' respectively, combine one-dimensional unsaturation Richard mathematical model (formula 1-1), Van
Genuchten equation (formula 2), formula 3, formula 4 complete hydrology numerical simulation, the primary condition of Richard mathematical model be formula 1-2,
It is 1-4 that upper boundary conditions, which are formula 1-3, downstream condition,.
Numerical simulation calculation obtains the crucial hydrologic parameter calculated for step S3.
Step S3, judge DEM grid cell instability status
The safety coefficient Fs of each grid is calculated according to formula 5.For the grid of Fs < 1, it is judged as instability status.
By taking the 125th row number grid in the 100th row as an example, soil body internal friction angleThe gradient λ of grid=
30.2 °, the cohesive force c=34.5kPa of the soil body, soil body matric suction ψ=2.2kPa, Soil Parameters relevant to matric suctionValue internal friction angleSoil body density γt=1.8g/cm3, grid unstability soil thickness Ds=1.8m.There is side according to the calculating of formula 5
Slope stability safety coefficient Fs=0.996.Grid unstability soil thickness DsCalculating be: the soil thickness 2m of the grid is equal
It is divided into 10 layers, every a layer thickness is 0.2m.Layer-by-layer tentative calculation (the i.e. D from first layersSuccessively value 0.2m, 0.4m ...
2.0m substitutes into 5 tentative calculation of formula) each layer of Fs determines that the above are unstability soil thickness for i-th layer of soil when the i-th=9 layer Fs < 1 occurs
=i × 0.2m=1.8m.
Step S4, curve-fit data point is searched
Step S41, accumulative unstability soil body total amount V is calculateds
The accumulative unstability bulk of solid matter total amount W of unstability grid is calculated according to formula 6S。
In formula 6, WSAccumulative unstability soil body total amount (m in-region from t=03), T-calculating total time length, from
T=0 rises to current time (h), NsUnstability grid quantity in-region, statistics is from t=0 to current time, Ai- each mistake
Area (the m of steady grid2), Ds- each grid unstability soil thickness (m).
Step S42, zoning runoff volume total amount Ww
Judge that unstability grid produces stream mode according to the water-holding capacity that the hydrology calculates each grid cell topsoil obtained by data,
Specifically when grid cell topsoil water content θ closes on topsoil saturation moisture content θs (θ→θs) when, judge that grid can produce
Stream；
From t=0, according to 7 zoning runoff volume total amount W of formulaw。
In formula 7, Ww- Watershed Runoff volume total amount (m3), T-calculating total time length, to current time from t=0
(h), NwThe grid quantity of stream can be produced in-basin, statistics is from t=0 to current time, Dw- each grid produces flow depth degree
(m), it is calculated and is determined by hydrological model.
Step S43, curve-fit data point is determined
Water and soil mixture bulk density ρ (referring to 201210193426.4 related content of ZL) is calculated according to formula 9 along time shaft.Work as meter
When calculating gained ρ=mixture bulk density control point ρ ', determines that the point is fitting data point, record corresponding rainfall duration D, rainfall
Intensity I.
Step S5, it is fitted I-D curvilinear equation
It is fitted to obtain one group of difference control point ρ ' under the conditions of each previous rainfall amount Ar ' magnitude by all fitting data points
I-D curvilinear equation, and I-D curve threshold value is drawn on coordinate system.Fig. 3 be respectively previous rainfall amount be 5mm (a), 10mm (b),
I-D under the conditions of 20mm (c), 30mm (d), 40mm (e), 50mm (f), 60mm (g), 75mm (h), 85mm (i), 100mm (j)
Curve threshold value.By taking the I-D curve threshold value under the conditions of 20mm (Fig. 3 (c)) as an example, when being used for basin debris flow early-warning, the I-D
The applicable early-warning conditions of curve threshold value are: the real-time previous rainfall amount Ar in basin2(Ar when reaching 20mm or so2→ Ar '), early warning boundary
In figure ◆ point linear curve threshold value (bulk density 1.2g/cm3) with ● put linear curve threshold value (bulk density 2.2g/cm3) between.When
Monitoring or combining when holding with intensity for Precipitation forecast then show that mud-rock flow may occur between this two boundary lines, need to
Issue debris flow early-warning information.
Claims (10)
1. rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method occurs for mud-rock flow, it is characterised in that:
Firstly, obtaining catchment basin of debris flow data, the catchment basin of debris flow data include in basin for one-dimensional unsaturation Richard
Data needed for mathematical model and Van Genuchten equation hydrologic process numerical simulation；Mixture after determining water and soil coupling
Bulk density control point ρ ', the previous rainfall amount Ar ' that hydrological simulation calculates is determined；
Secondly, starting hydrological simulation process under conditions of given rainfall intensity I, combine one-dimensional unsaturation Richard mathematical modulo
Type, Van Genuchten equation carry out hydrologic process numerical simulation, determine for calculating basin safety factor of slope stability Fs
Crucial hydrologic parameter；
Again, the Fs value for calculating each grid of catchment basin of debris flow, judges each grid stability, currently flows along time series tentative calculation
Mixture bulk density ρ in domain after water and soil coupling, captures the trial result mixture bulk density ρ=water and soil mixture bulk density control point ρ '
Point determines that the point is fitting data point, the corresponding rainfall duration D of record fitting data point, rainfall intensity I；
Finally, being fitted to obtain I-D curve I=δ D of basin under the conditions of previous rainfall amount Ar ' using all fitting data pointsβ, sitting
Mark, which is fastened, draws I-D curve threshold value.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized by: the one-dimensional unsaturation Richard mathematical model use side
Journey group 1:
In formula, the current soil body volumetric(al) moisture content of θ-, mm,
D (θ)=K (θ)/(d θ/d ψ)-unsaturated soil diffusivity, mm3/ h, ψ are determining according to Van Genuchten equation,
K (θ)-soil body unsaturated hydraulic conductivity mm/h is determined according to formula 3, formula 4
The current precipitation intensity of R (t)-, mm/h, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
θa- soil body initial volume water content, % is determining according to conventional method,
The vertical coordinate of z-is positive downwards using earth's surface as origin, mm, and catchment basin of debris flow data determine,
L-lower boundary depth, m, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
M=1/ (1-n) formula 4
In formula, k0Unsaturation infiltrated water of-every layer soil under the conditions of residual water content, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
SeThe effective saturation degree of-soil body, %, catchment basin of debris flow data are determining,
M, n-profile shape parameter, n are determined by catchment basin of debris flow,
ks- topsoil infiltrated water, area data is determining,
E-natural constant.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized by: basin safety factor of slope stability Fs is calculated really according to formula 5
It is fixed:
In formula,The internal friction angle of-the soil body, °, investigation sampling is determined with testing experiment,
The gradient of each grid of λ-, °, catchment basin of debris flow data determine,
C-soil body cohesive force, kPa, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining,
ψ-soil body matric suction, kPa, Van Genuchten equation determine
- relevant to matric suction Soil Parameters, value internal friction angle°,
γt- soil body density, g/cm3, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining,
Ds- each grid unstability soil thickness, m take corresponding soil when layering 5 tentative calculation of substitution formula of grid soil thickness is obtained Fs < 1
Layer thickness value.
γt- soil body density, g/cm3, investigation sampling and testing experiment are determining.
4. any method according to claim 1~3, it is characterised in that: mixture bulk density control point ρ ' is one
Interval value, then in interval value be to choose multiple points, each point represents different control bulk density.
5. according to any method of claim 4, it is characterised in that: the previous rainfall amount Ar ' is an interval value, then will
Interval value is divided into several magnitude Ari', 5mm~15mm is differed between each magnitude.
6. according to the method described in claim 5, it is characterized by: the previous rainfall amount Ar ' is 1mm~100mm, and being divided into
10 magnitudes such as 5mm, 10mm, 20mm, 30mm, 40mm, 50mm, 60mm, 75mm, 85mm, 100mm.
7. according to the method described in claim 5, it is characterized by: mixture bulk density control point ρ ' is 1.2g/cm3~
2.3g/cm3。
8. according to the method described in claim 7, it is characterized by: mixture bulk density control point ρ ' is 1.2g/cm3、
1.5g/cm3、2.0g/cm3、2.2g/cm3。
9. mud-rock flow according to claim 5 occurs to be used for one-dimensional unsaturation described in rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method
Data needed for Richard mathematical model and Van Genuchten equation hydrologic process numerical simulation include slope map, soil benefit
With figure, soil thickness distribution map, regional soil Map of Distributions of Types, all kinds of Soil Hydrological supplemental characteristics, all kinds of soil physics mechanics
Supplemental characteristic, vegetation index distribution map.
10. the basin that rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method is realized occurs using any mud-rock flow of claim 5~9
Debris flow early-warning method, it is characterised in that: rainfall monitoring system is arranged in catchment basin of debris flow, including the rain being distributed in basin
Quantity sensor and control centre, and the I-D of preset difference previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of difference control point ρ ' in systems
Curve threshold value；The I-D curve threshold value of the difference previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of difference control point ρ ' are occurred by mud-rock flow
Rainfall I-D curve threshold value construction method determines；Arithmetic center carries into execution a plan one and/or scheme two:
Scheme one: according to weather forecast rainfall data, when in calculating previous rainfall amount condition Ar1Under rainfall intensity-rainfall group when holding
Coincidence is in Ar1Between corresponding one group of I-D curve threshold value when region, debris flow early-warning signal is issued；
Scheme two: after rainfall occurs, system centre is according to rainfall data calculate real-time previous rainfall amount value Ar in real time in basin2With
Combination when real-time rainfall intensity-rainfall is held, and according to Ar2Select different previous rainfall amount Ar ' and corresponding one group of I-D curve threshold
Value, if combination region between I-D curve threshold value when rainfall intensity-rainfall in real time is held, issues debris flow early-warning signal.
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