CN108985585A - It is a kind of to consider the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure decision-making technique influenced of forecast - Google Patents
It is a kind of to consider the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure decision-making technique influenced of forecast Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure decision-making technique influenced of forecast is considered the invention discloses a kind of, including according to forecast water and water phase is needed to divide flood control stage and emerging sharp stage to size relation, counts two stages prediction error Parameter Conditions；Define the water shortage risk of the flood control risks in stage of controlling flood in flood water resources utilization and stage of supplying water；Reservoir Flood utilization of resources two-stage risk is established to liquidate model；Under setting models parameter input condition, the resolution rules of flood control, the conversion intermediate variable reservoir storage capacity that supplies water are derived using First Order Optimality Condition；Export the functional arrangement of flood water resources utilization venture countermeasure resolution rules and the regulation goal function result using the rule under the conditions of different waters.The present invention has quantified the characteristic manner of flood control, water supply two-stage risk, can parse the functional relation of each major influence factors and storage capacity, and can reduce the sum of flood control, the risk of loss of water shortage, controls flood in comprehensive coordination Flood Season of Reservoir scheduling, the target contradiction of Xing Li.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources scheduling decision method in hydraulic engineering field, in particular to one kind is examined
Consider the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure decision-making technique influenced of forecast.
Background technique
In recent years, along with the fast development of economic society, the contradiction of supply and demand for the water resource becomes increasingly conspicuous, some areas water resource
Shortage has become the main restricting factor of Sustainable Socioeconomic Development.It is influenced by monsoon, the run-off year in some main riverss and creekss
Distribution between interior and year border changes greatly, and needs just make full use of by Reservoir Operation.Reservoir is as most important a kind of water
Resource allocation engineering often has both the Runoff adjustment function of flood control, Xing Li simultaneously.For a long time, it practices and manages in reservoir operation
It in the process, is economic loss and social influence caused by reduction flood as far as possible, it is ensured that flood control safety is often Flood Season of Reservoir
The core important business of scheduling.With this condition, reservoir mostly meets flood with low water level, and exceedingly reserving storage capacity causes flood resource to obtain
Less than making full use of, control flood, emerging sharp aggravation of contradictions.Flood water resources utilization is to alleviate basin water resources contradiction, improve the ecological environment
Realistic choice.Science formulates the reservoir operation method of operation, so that its management and running is more met the Seasonal Analysis of river basin flood, is
The important channel realized flood water resources utilization, alleviate shortage of water resources problem.
The Reservoir Flood utilization of resources relates generally to the retaining of two different time course stage water resources, allocation process: by anti-
The value that big vast stage (abundance of water section) stores water more than needed is usually required in emerging sharp stage (low water section) competence exertion.Therefore, excessive
Water conservation will lead to the flood control stage and generate flood control risks, and flood resource retains deficiency and will lead to the emerging sharp stage and generates water shortage wind
Danger, two kinds of risk negative senses are related and are that system brings economic loss, determine that optimal scheme of saving is actually by coordinating
The theoretical modeling analysis that liquidates can be used in the process for coordinating two kinds of risks by the mode of liquidating.Liquidating is financial technics, is refered in particular to same
Two market correlations of Shi Jinhang, contrary, quantity quite, the transaction of average, under being full of the terms of trade that one loses one with
Profit compensates for losses reducing commercial risks.In reservoir operation field, the theory that liquidates is initially introduced into solution water resources quantity
In the assignment problem of current, the following time-histories section, by reducing the water supply of present period in right amount with the future time period that liquidates because water is pre-
Water shortage risk caused by report is uncertain.Liquidating for generalization is theoretical suitable for solving the competitiveness of resource during the multistage
Assignment problem.
It is existing to study and practice the economic loss for excessively emphasizing anti-disaster and the economic loss for weakening shortage of water supply, lack
To the two liquidate the relationship of replacing analysis inquire into.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: it to solve the shortcomings of the prior art, provides and a kind of is liquidated flood control with flood water resources utilization benefit
The two-stage venture countermeasure mode of risk of loss proposes to consider the uncertain multi-reservoir flood water resources utilization risk pair influenced of forecast
Rush decision-making technique.
Technical solution: the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources risk pair influenced of forecast is considered the present invention provides a kind of
Rush decision-making technique, comprising the following steps:
(1) data information for collecting, arranging the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources correlation hydrology, water conservancy and economic aspect, according to pre-
It offers water and water phase is needed to divide flood control stage and emerging sharp stage to size relation, observed according to history inflow forecast and real-time water
Data system counts two stages prediction error Parameter Conditions；
(2) the water shortage risk of the flood control risks in stage of controlling flood in flood water resources utilization and stage of supplying water is defined；
(3) Reservoir Flood utilization of resources two-stage risk is established to liquidate model；
(4) under setting models parameter input condition, flood control is derived using First Order Optimality Condition, is become among conversion of supplying water
Measure the resolution rules of reservoir storage capacity；
(5) it exports the functional arrangement of flood water resources utilization venture countermeasure resolution rules and carrys out water bar in difference using the rule
Regulation goal function result under part.
Further, the step (1) the following steps are included:
(11) in due order big vast real-time prediction as a result, will be from start periods until water-break section flow, which reaches, need water flowPeriod
It is divided into the flood control stage, ignores discharge in period of time assigning process, is T by flood control divided stages1A period, each period a length of △ t,
The average flow rate of all periods in the flood control stageAs the mean inflow in the flood control stage, then:
The forecast of flood control stage carrys out water are as follows:
Flood control stage end is started until time big vast process terminated as the emerging sharp stage, emerging benefit divided stages are T2A period,
Each period a length of △ t, then:
Calculate the average flow rate in the emerging sharp stageAnd emerging sharp stage forecast carrys out water are as follows:
(12) risk sources in the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources mainly consider real-time inflow forecast error, it is assumed that coming in real time
Under conditions of water prediction error Normal Distribution, the spy of water prediction error is carried out according to history inflow forecast data sample statistics
Levy parameter；Carry out the prediction error of water are as follows:
Wherein, εiCome the prediction error of water, I for stage i reservoiri、Respectively actual water flow and forecast comes water, i
=1,2；It is generally acknowledged that prediction error εiNormal Distribution,For error to standard deviation.
Further, it is influenced in the step (2) by prediction error, saving excess water causes reservoir actual library storage capacity super
Threshold value is limited, upstream is caused to flood loss, then flood control risks are defined as the desired value that the flood control stage floods loss are as follows:
L1=P (V1≥Vu)·C1；
Wherein, L1For flood control risks, ViFor the stage i practical storage capacity of end reservoir, for convenient for analysis, which refers to flood season limit level
It is 0 that above library storage capacity, i.e. flood season limit level, which correspond to storage capacity,；Vu is that the library storage capacity for causing upstream to flood limits threshold value, and P () is wind
The probability-distribution function of dangerous event, C1Loss is flooded for upstream；
Water shortage risk is defined as economic loss desired value caused by flood control stage water-supply shortages water requirement:
L2=P (R2≤D2)·C2；
Wherein, L2For water shortage risk, RiFor the practical outbound water in i stage, i=1,2, C2For water shortage loss.D1、D2Respectively
For flood control stage and Xing Li stage water requirement, it may be assumed that
Further, the step (3) the following steps are included:
(31) it establishes with flood control risks, the smallest objective function of water shortage risk summation L in schedule periods:
Min L=L1+L2；
(32) consider following constraint condition:
Water balance constraint are as follows:
Vi=Vi-1+Ii-Ri, i=1,2；
Outbound water quantity restraint are as follows:
Ri min≤Ri≤Rimax；
Wherein, Ri min、RiMax is respectively the lower and upper limit of the practical outbound water of stage i, wherein R1Min=D1,
Guarantee that flood control stage outbound water is not less than water requirement；R1Max=min { R1c,R1D }, R1C is for reservoir in the flood control stage by aerial drainage
The maximum outbound water of capacity consistency, R1D is the corresponding flood control stage maximum outbound water of downstream protection object safety discharge；This
Outside, R2Min=0, R2Max=min { R2c,R2D }, R2c、R2D be respectively the corresponding maximum outbound water of emerging sharp stage discharge capacity and
The corresponding maximum outbound water of downstream protection object safety discharge；
Storage capacity primary condition, boundary condition:
V0=Vs, V2=Ve；
Wherein, Vs, Ve are respectively initial storage capacity and end of term storage capacity, are combined according to reservoir in flood period scheduling flood control, Xing Li
Situation, and it is convenient for analytic solutions deriving analysis, it is assumed that Ve=0, the research scheduling end of term fall after rise to the scheduling scheme of flood season limit level；V0
For the 1 practical storage capacity of initial reservoir of stage, V2For the practical storage capacity of last reservoir of stage 2.
Further, the step (4) the following steps are included:
(41) according to the venture countermeasure model containing stochastic variable established in step (3) it is found that in reservoir operation decision,
Uncertainty will be made to be shifted from forecast source to reservoir decision terminal by the pondage capacity of reservoir, it is next that two stages can be obtained
The uncertainty of water forecast is transferred to flood control stage end storage capacityAnd emerging sharp stage outbound water R2Equation of transfer:
Wherein,For stochastic variable V1Mean value, so, face stage outbound water R making1Under conditions of decision, V1
Uncertainty be substantially by one prediction error ε of stage1Conduction；For stochastic variable R2Mean value；As it can be seen that R2No
Certainty is simultaneously by flood control stage, emerging sharp stage prediction error ε1、ε2It influences, enabling overall error ε is ε1、ε2The sum of, then:It is normally distributed random variable, and
KnownAndUnder conditions of, the key variables of the model solution areR1And R2Can it pass through
Water balance equation byResult obtain；
(42) latter stage in stage prestige storage capacity is converted by Optimized model according to above-mentioned objective function expression formula and equation of transferOne-variable function relationship:
It converts flood control risks, water shortage risk toUnivariate relationships:
Wherein, p (ε1) and p (ε) be respectively error term ε1And the normpdf of ε；
(43) the venture countermeasure model established in the step (3) is simplified, corresponding objective function are as follows:
And the constraint condition of model isValue range:
Wherein, Vmin isLower limit are as follows:
V max isThe upper limit are as follows:
(44) Constraint Anchored Optimization that step (43) are constituted, using Constraint Anchored Optimization First Order Optimality Condition-library
Grace-Plutarch (Kuhn-Tucker conditions) condition solves the analytic solutions for meeting following conditions
Wherein, λ1,λ2For the Generalized Lagrangian multiplier of constraint；
Target function type in step (43) is substituted into above formula, can be obtained:
The formula is unfolded, it may be assumed that
Wherein,
Save the limit flood control loss of flood discharge generation are as follows:
To save limit water supply benefits caused by the loss of marginal water shortage or flood water resources utilization that flood discharge reduces,
Solution meet following three kinds of situations:
(a)λ1=λ2=0, optimal solution at this timeValue keeps limit flood control loss equal with marginal water supply benefits；
(b)λ1=0, λ2> 0, marginal water supply benefits are greater than limit flood control loss at this time, to make total losses minimum should be as far as possible
Increase water supply benefits, so
(c)λ1>0,λ2=0, the loss of limit flood control at this time is greater than marginal water supply benefits, to make total losses minimum should be as far as possible
Flood control loss is reduced, so
Further, in given stochastic variable I in the step (5)iDistribution parameter, prediction need water constant Di, outbound water
Upper and lower limit Ri min、RiUsing analytic method Analytical Solution in the step (4) under the conditions of max, initial, end of term storage capacity value Vs, Ve
Model draws the end of term in flood control stage and it is expected storage capacityWithFunctional relation cluster curve graph, and to differenceUnder combination condition
Regulation goal function result is solved, and is drawn objective function and is distributed isopleth rule figure.
The utility model has the advantages that compared with prior art, the invention has the following advantages that
(1) present invention establishes the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure method based on venture countermeasure technology, by reservoir flood
Water resource is divided into flood control using process, supply water two stages and quantitative measurement flood control risks, water shortage risk of loss, passes through risk pair
The mode of punching compensated for emerging sharp benefit, the flood control risks that liquidate loss, can effective coordination solves flood control by reservoir regulation, the contradiction of Xing Li is asked
Topic.
(2) present invention is derived from the analytic solutions of the best amount of flood water resources utilization in conjunction with Optimum Theory.More traditional number
Value theoretical method improves calculating precision；Meanwhile the optimal rules that can parse physical meaning are succinct, intuitive, can effectively reduce
Complex mathematical model is instructing the theory application problem on obstacle in reservoir operation practice.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 2 is time big vast forecasting process two stages generally to change schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is Reservoir Flood utilization of resources two-stage risk transmission schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
Technical solution of the present invention is described in detail with specific embodiment with reference to the accompanying drawing.However, for this
It is readily apparent that the present invention may not need one or more of these details and be carried out for the technical staff of field.At it
In his example, in order to avoid confusion with the present invention, some technical characteristics well known in the art are not described.This
The sequence of correlation step in invention not be it is limited, i.e., those skilled in the art is adjustable, the present invention in sequence
It is a kind of writing mode of case, and non-limiting description.
As shown in Figure 1, the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure influenced of a kind of consideration forecast of the invention
Decision-making technique, comprising the following steps:
(1) data information of collect, arrange the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources correlation hydrology, water conservancy, economy etc., according to pre-
It offers water and water phase is needed to divide flood control stage and emerging sharp stage to size relation, observed according to history inflow forecast and real-time water
Data system counts two stages prediction error Parameter Conditions.
Specifically include following sub-step:
(11) as shown in Fig. 2, by time big vast forecast result in real time, water flow will be needed from start periods up to the arrival of water-break section flow
The Time segments division for measuring D is flood control stage (stage 1), ignores discharge in period of time assigning process, the stage 1 is divided into T1A period, often
A period a length of △ t, the average flow rate of all periods in the stage 1As the mean inflow in the stage 1, then:
The forecast of stage 1 carrys out water are as follows:
Flood control stage (stage 1) end is started until time big vast process terminates as emerging sharp stage (stage 2), the stage 2 divides
For T2A period, each period a length of △ t), then:
Average flow rate in calculation stages 2And the forecast of stage 2 carrys out water are as follows:
(12) risk sources in the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources mainly consider real-time inflow forecast error, it is assumed that coming in real time
Under conditions of water prediction error Normal Distribution, carry out the prediction error of water according to history inflow forecast data sample statistics
Characteristic parameter；Carry out the prediction error of water are as follows:
Wherein, εiCome the prediction error of water, I for stage i reservoiri、Respectively actual water flow, forecast come water, i
=1,2；It is generally acknowledged that prediction error εiNormal Distribution,For error to standard deviation.
(2) comprehensively consider risk occur a possibility that and its caused by lose under conditions of, with the expectation of risk case
Loss defines risk.It is assumed that mining under reservoir distance flood control point is close enough so that negligible downstream local inflow is to flood control point flow
Influence.It in medium and small flood, acts on and protecting through dam safety evaluation, downstream flood control risks are negligible.It is influenced, is saved by prediction error
Excess water, which may cause reservoir actual library storage capacity and transfinite, determines threshold value, causes upstream to flood loss, is then defined as flood control risks
Stage 1 floods the desired value of loss are as follows:
L1=P (V1≥Vu)·C1(4)；
Wherein, L1For flood control risks, ViFor the stage i practical storage capacity of end reservoir.For convenient for analysis, which refers to flood season limit level
It is 0 that above library storage capacity, i.e. flood season limit level, which correspond to storage capacity,.Vu is that the library storage capacity for causing upstream to flood limits threshold value, and P () is wind
The probability-distribution function of dangerous event, C1Loss is flooded for upstream.
Water shortage risk is defined as economic loss desired value caused by 2 water-supply shortages water requirement of stage:
L2=P (R2≤D2)·C2(5)；
Wherein, L2For water shortage risk, RiFor the practical outbound water in i stage, i=1,2, C2For water shortage loss.D1、D2Respectively
For stage 1,2 water requirements, it may be assumed that
It is assumed that it is huge that flood control, water shortage risk case economic loss caused by it once occurs, therefore mainly consider wind
Influence of the dangerous event occurrence rate to expected loss has ignored influence of the generation intensity of risk case to loss, so C1、C2
It is economic loss result of the policymaker before flood water resources utilization decision according to the assessment of history the condition of a disaster loss result.
(3) Reservoir Flood utilization of resources two-stage venture countermeasure model is established；
Specifically include following sub-step:
(31) it establishes with flood control risks, the smallest objective function of water shortage risk summation L in schedule periods:
Min L=L1+L2(7)；
(32) consider following constraint condition:
Water balance constraint are as follows:
Vi=Vi-1+Ii-Ri, i=1,2 (8)；
Outbound water quantity restraint are as follows:
Ri min≤Ri≤Rimax (9)；
Wherein, Ri min、RiMax is respectively the lower and upper limit of the practical outbound water of stage i.Wherein, R1Min=D1,
1 outbound water of guarantee stage is not less than water requirement；R1Max=min { R1c,R1D }, R1C be reservoir the stage 1 by discharge capacity about
The maximum outbound water of beam, R1D is the corresponding maximum outbound water of stage 1 of downstream protection object safety discharge.In addition, R2Min=
0, R2Max=min { R2c,R2D }, R2c、R2D is respectively the corresponding maximum outbound water of 2 discharge capacity of stage and downstream protection object
The corresponding maximum outbound water of safety discharge.
Storage capacity primary condition, boundary condition:
V0=Vs, V2=Ve (10)；
In formula, Vs, Ve are respectively initial storage capacity and end of term storage capacity.It is combined according to reservoir in flood period scheduling flood control, Xing Li
Situation, and it is convenient for analytic solutions deriving analysis, it is assumed that Ve=0, the research scheduling end of term fall after rise to the scheduling scheme of flood season limit level；V0
For the 1 practical storage capacity of initial reservoir of stage, V2For the practical storage capacity of last reservoir of stage 2.
(4) under setting models parameter input condition, flood control is derived using First Order Optimality Condition, is become among conversion of supplying water
Measure the resolution rules of reservoir storage capacity；
Specifically include following sub-step:
(41) according to the Risk Decision-making Model containing stochastic variable established in step (3) it is found that in reservoir operation decision,
Uncertainty will be made to be shifted from forecast source to reservoir decision terminal by the pondage capacity of reservoir.As shown in figure 3, relying on
The uncertainty that above-mentioned formula can obtain two stage inflow forecasts is transferred to the last storage capacity of stage 1And 2 outbound water R of stage2Turn
Move equation:
Wherein,For stochastic variable V1Mean value, so, face stage outbound water R making1(certainty variable) determines
Under conditions of plan, V1Uncertainty be substantially by one prediction error ε of stage1Conduction；For stochastic variable R2It is equal
Value.As it can be seen that R2It is uncertain simultaneously by two prediction error ε of stage one, stage1、ε2It influences.Enabling overall error ε is ε1、ε2The sum of,
Then:It is normally distributed random variable, and
KnownAndUnder conditions of, the key variables of the model solution areR1And R2Can it pass through
Water balance equation byResult obtain.
(42) latter stage in stage prestige storage capacity is converted by Optimized model according to above-mentioned objective function expression formula and equation of transferOne-variable function relationship:
It converts flood control risks, water shortage risk toUnivariate relationships:
Wherein, p (ε1) and p (ε) be respectively error term ε1And the normpdf of ε.
(43) model established in the step (3) is simplified, corresponding objective function are as follows:
And the constraint condition of model isValue range:
Wherein, Vmin isLower limit are as follows:
V max isThe upper limit are as follows:
(44) Constraint Anchored Optimization that step (43) are constituted, using Constraint Anchored Optimization First Order Optimality Condition ---
Ku En-Plutarch (Kuhn-Tucker conditions) condition solves the analytic solutions for meeting following conditions
Wherein, λ1,λ2For the Generalized Lagrangian multiplier of constraint.
Target function type in step (43) is substituted into above formula, can be obtained:
The formula is unfolded, it may be assumed that
Wherein,
Save the limit flood control loss of flood discharge generation are as follows:
To save limit water supply benefits caused by the loss of marginal water shortage or flood water resources utilization that flood discharge reduces.
Solution meet following three kinds of situations:
(a)λ1=λ2=0, optimal solution at this timeValue keeps limit flood control loss equal with marginal water supply benefits；
(b)λ1=0, λ2> 0, marginal water supply benefits are greater than limit flood control loss at this time, to make total losses minimum should be as far as possible
Increase water supply benefits, so
(c)λ1>0,λ2=0, the loss of limit flood control at this time is greater than marginal water supply benefits, to make total losses minimum should be as far as possible
Flood control loss is reduced, so
(5) it exports the functional arrangement of flood water resources utilization venture countermeasure resolution rules and carrys out water bar in difference using the rule
Regulation goal function result under part.
In given stochastic variable IiDistribution parameter, prediction need water constant Di, the upper and lower limit R of outbound wateri min、Ri max、
Initially, solving model is parsed using analytic method in the step (4) under the conditions of end of term storage capacity value Vs, Ve, draws one end of term of stage
It is expected that storage capacityWithFunctional relation cluster curve graph, and to differenceRegulation goal function result under combination condition is asked
Solution draws objective function and is distributed isopleth rule figure.
Specific technical features described in the above specific embodiments, in the case of no contradiction, Ke Yitong
Any suitable way is crossed to be combined.In order to avoid unnecessary repetition, the present invention to various combinations of possible ways no longer
It explains separately.
The present invention is quasi- to rely on venture countermeasure theory to establish flood control, water supply two-stage risk liquidates model, using analytic method
Seek optimal storage capacity scheme and establish water supply-flood control risks time-histories to liquidate mechanism and the rule that liquidates, solves in flood water resources utilization
Flood control-water shortage contradictory problems, and then reduce flood control, water shortage overall risk loss, realize flood water resources utilization benefit it is optimal.
The present invention establishes the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure method based on venture countermeasure technology, and Reservoir Flood is provided
Source is divided into flood control using process, supply water two stages and quantitative measurement flood control risks, water shortage risk of loss, passes through venture countermeasure
Mode compensated for emerging sharp benefit, the flood control risks that liquidate loss, can effective coordination solve the contradictory problems of flood control by reservoir regulation, Xing Li.This
Invention is derived from the analytic solutions of the best amount of flood water resources utilization in conjunction with Optimum Theory.It is promoted compared with conventional numeric theoretical method
Calculating precision；Meanwhile the optimal rules that can parse physical meaning are succinct, intuitive, can effectively reduce complex mathematical model and exist
Instruct the theory application problem on obstacle in reservoir operation practice.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of consider the uncertain Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure decision-making technique influenced of forecast, which is characterized in that
The following steps are included:
(1) data information of the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources correlation hydrology, water conservancy and economic aspect is collected, arranges, foundation is offered in advance
Water divides flood control stage and emerging sharp stage to size relation with water phase is needed, according to history inflow forecast and real-time water observational data
Series of statistical two stages prediction error Parameter Conditions；
(2) the water shortage risk of the flood control risks in stage of controlling flood in flood water resources utilization and stage of supplying water is defined；
(3) Reservoir Flood utilization of resources two-stage risk is established to liquidate model；
(4) under setting models parameter input condition, flood control is derived using First Order Optimality Condition, supply water conversion intermediate variable water
The resolution rules of library storage capacity；
(5) functional arrangement of flood water resources utilization venture countermeasure resolution rules is exported and using the rule under the conditions of different waters
Regulation goal function result.
2. a kind of Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure for considering the uncertain influence of forecast according to claim 1 is determined
Plan method, which is characterized in that the step (1) the following steps are included:
(11) in due order big vast real-time prediction as a result, will be from start periods until water-break section flow, which reaches, need water flowTime segments division
For the stage of controlling flood, ignore discharge in period of time assigning process, is T by flood control divided stages1A period, each period a length of △ t, flood control
The average flow rate of all periods in stageAs the mean inflow in the flood control stage, then:
The forecast of flood control stage carrys out water are as follows:
Flood control stage end is started until time big vast process terminated as the emerging sharp stage, emerging benefit divided stages are T2A period, Mei Geshi
Segment length is △ t, then:
Calculate the average flow rate in the emerging sharp stageAnd emerging sharp stage forecast carrys out water are as follows:
(12) risk sources in the Reservoir Flood utilization of resources mainly consider real-time inflow forecast error, it is assumed that water is pre- in real time
Under conditions of reporting error Normal Distribution, the feature ginseng of water prediction error is carried out according to history inflow forecast data sample statistics
Number；Carry out the prediction error of water are as follows:
Wherein, εiCome the prediction error of water, I for stage i reservoiri、Respectively actual water flow and forecast come water, i=1,
2；It is generally acknowledged that prediction error εiNormal Distribution, For error to standard deviation.
3. a kind of Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure for considering the uncertain influence of forecast according to claim 1 is determined
Plan method, which is characterized in that influenced in the step (2) by prediction error, saving excess water leads to reservoir actual library storage capacity
It transfinites and determines threshold value, upstream is caused to flood loss, then flood control risks are defined as the desired value that the flood control stage floods loss are as follows:
L1=P (V1≥Vu)·C1；
Wherein, L1For flood control risks, ViFor the stage i practical storage capacity of end reservoir, for convenient for analysis, which refers to flood season limit level or more
Library storage capacity, i.e., flood season limit level correspond to storage capacity be 0；Vu is that the library storage capacity for causing upstream to flood limits threshold value, and P () is risk thing
The probability-distribution function of part, C1Loss is flooded for upstream；
Water shortage risk is defined as economic loss desired value caused by flood control stage water-supply shortages water requirement:
L2=P (R2≤D2)·C2；
Wherein, L2For water shortage risk, RiFor the practical outbound water in i stage, i=1,2, C2For water shortage loss.D1、D2It is respectively anti-
Big vast stage and Xing Li stage water requirement, it may be assumed that
4. a kind of Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure for considering the uncertain influence of forecast according to claim 1 is determined
Plan method, which is characterized in that the step (3) the following steps are included:
(31) it establishes with flood control risks, the smallest objective function of water shortage risk summation L in schedule periods:
Min L=L1+L2；
(32) consider following constraint condition:
Water balance constraint are as follows:
Vi=Vi-1+Ii-Ri, i=1,2；
Outbound water quantity restraint are as follows:
Ri min≤Ri≤Rimax；
Wherein, Ri min、RiMax is respectively the lower and upper limit of the practical outbound water of stage i, wherein R1Min=D1, guarantee anti-
Big vast stage outbound water is not less than water requirement；R1Max=min { R1c,R1D }, R1C be reservoir flood control the stage by discharge capacity about
The maximum outbound water of beam, R1D is the corresponding flood control stage maximum outbound water of downstream protection object safety discharge；In addition,
R2Min=0, R2Max=min { R2c,R2D }, R2c、R2D be respectively the corresponding maximum outbound water of emerging sharp stage discharge capacity and under
Swim the corresponding maximum outbound water of protection object safety discharge；
Storage capacity primary condition, boundary condition:
V0=Vs, V2=Ve；
Wherein, Vs, Ve are respectively initial storage capacity and end of term storage capacity, the case where being combined according to reservoir in flood period scheduling flood control, Xing Li,
And it is convenient for analytic solutions deriving analysis, it is assumed that Ve=0, the research scheduling end of term fall after rise to the scheduling scheme of flood season limit level；V0For rank
The 1 initial practical storage capacity of reservoir of section, V2For the practical storage capacity of last reservoir of stage 2.
5. a kind of Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure for considering the uncertain influence of forecast according to claim 1 is determined
Plan method, which is characterized in that the step (4) the following steps are included:
(41) pass through according to the venture countermeasure model containing stochastic variable established in step (3) it is found that in reservoir operation decision
The pondage capacity of reservoir will be such that uncertainty is shifted from forecast source to reservoir decision terminal, and it is pre- can to obtain two stage waters
The uncertainty of report is transferred to flood control stage end storage capacityAnd emerging sharp stage outbound water R2Equation of transfer:
Wherein,For stochastic variable V1Mean value, so, face stage outbound water R making1Under conditions of decision, V1No
Certainty is substantially by one prediction error ε of stage1Conduction；For stochastic variable R2Mean value；As it can be seen that R2It is uncertain
Property simultaneously by flood control stage, emerging sharp stage prediction error ε1、ε2It influences, enabling overall error ε is ε1、ε2The sum of, then:It is normally distributed random variable, and
KnownAndUnder conditions of, the key variables of the model solution areR1And R2Water can be passed through
Equilibrium equation byResult obtain；
(42) latter stage in stage prestige storage capacity is converted by Optimized model according to above-mentioned objective function expression formula and equation of transfer's
One-variable function relationship:
It converts flood control risks, water shortage risk toUnivariate relationships:
Wherein, p (ε1) and p (ε) be respectively error term ε1And the normpdf of ε；
(43) the venture countermeasure model established in the step (3) is simplified, corresponding objective function are as follows:
And the constraint condition of model isValue range:
Wherein, Vmin isLower limit are as follows:
Vmax isThe upper limit are as follows:
(44) Constraint Anchored Optimization that step (43) are constituted, using Constraint Anchored Optimization First Order Optimality Condition-Ku En-tower
Gram (Kuhn-Tucker conditions) condition solves the analytic solutions for meeting following conditions
Wherein, λ1,λ2For the Generalized Lagrangian multiplier of constraint；
Target function type in step (43) is substituted into above formula, can be obtained:
The formula is unfolded, it may be assumed that
Wherein,
Save the limit flood control loss of flood discharge generation are as follows:
To save limit water supply benefits caused by the loss of marginal water shortage or flood water resources utilization that flood discharge reduces,Solution
Meet following three kinds of situations:
(a)λ1=λ2=0, optimal solution at this timeValue keeps limit flood control loss equal with marginal water supply benefits；
(b)λ1=0, λ2> 0, marginal water supply benefits are greater than limit flood control loss at this time, to increase total losses minimum should as far as possible
Water supply benefits, so
(c)λ1>0,λ2=0, the loss of limit flood control at this time is greater than marginal water supply benefits, to reduce total losses minimum should as far as possible
Flood control loss, so
6. a kind of Reservoir Flood utilization of resources venture countermeasure for considering the uncertain influence of forecast according to claim 1 is determined
Plan method, which is characterized in that in given stochastic variable I in the step (5)iDistribution parameter, prediction need water constant Di, outbound water
Measure upper and lower limit Ri min、RiIt is asked under the conditions of max, initial, end of term storage capacity value Vs, Ve using analytic method parsing in the step (4)
Model is solved, the end of term in flood control stage is drawn and it is expected storage capacityWithFunctional relation cluster curve graph, and to differenceUnder combination condition
Regulation goal function result solved, draw objective function be distributed isopleth rule figure.
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| CN111126693B (en) * | 2019-12-20 | 2022-11-11 | 华中科技大学 | Scheduling method based on influence of upstream reservoir operation on power generation capacity of downstream power station |
| CN111754099A (en) * | 2020-06-18 | 2020-10-09 | 清华大学 | Real-time flood control scheduling method based on three-stage risk hedging rule |
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