CN108960636A - A kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method based on matter-element model - Google Patents
A kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method based on matter-element model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention is a kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method based on matter-element model.This method carries out the analysis of crossing safety influence first, determine the influence factor of intersection truck traffic management Sustainable Development Level, then relevant appraisement system is established, on the basis of considering truck traffic characteristic, with the matter-element model and Region place value, correlation function theory in extension science, the matter-element model for establishing the evaluation of intersection truck headache, is calculated by Synthesis Relational Grade, makes overall merit to urban road intersection lorry operational safety.This method more exact can reflect the level of security that lorry is run in intersection by analyzing relevant case, be the Intersection Safety Evaluation Method for meeting China's road truth.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the Evaluation of Traffic Safety field of urban intersection, in particular to a kind of lorry based on matter-element model
Intersection operational safety evaluation method.
Background technique
With the sustainable growth of China's number of freight cars on hand, China's urban roads safety problem takes place frequently, caused by truck accident
Death toll accounts for the 48.23% of toll on traffic, wherein because crossing safety facility is not perfect, driver turns right
There are the factors such as sight blind area, cause truck to scratch in intersection turning and roll pedestrian or non-motor vehicle driver cause
Dead traffic accident accounts for about 30%.Correlative study shows when truck traffic amount accounting in lane is more than 20%, intersection delay and
Traffic capacity decline, crossing safety also reduces at the same time.Therefore, to the evaluation of lorry intersection operational safety state into
Row research, has important practical application value, can provide reference proposition for the formulation of subsequent effective precautionary measures.
In recent years, in terms of the operational safety in lorry in intersection, experts and scholars both domestic and external also have corresponding research, and
Successively propose Poisson distribution and negative binomial accident prediction model；Between the various risk factors and occupant injury of truck operation
The nested Logit model of relationship；To the preventive measure etc. of truck traffic accident.Model above is more research intersection to goods
Relationship between the influence of vehicle accident or various risks and lorry accident, and the safety to lorry in intersection lack it is necessary
It analyses and evaluates.
Currently, China to the evaluation of crossing safety is carried out by the traffic conflict technique.Such as based on traffic
Conflicts technique develops the Severity crossing safety of traffic conflict；It is predicted using the safe performance function of traffic conflict
The quantity of different intersection inlet and outlet traffic conflicts；With the Probability distribution prediction crossing safety etc. of traffic conflict.Above method
It is more that whether intersection is safe from the point of view of traffic conflict, does not provide the specific influence for influencing crossing safety
Factor and its weight to crossing safety.The principal mode of matter-element model is the title N of given things, it is about characteristic factor
The magnitude of C is X, with orderly ternary R=(N, C, X) group as the substantially first of description things, carries out intersection using matter-element model
Lorry operational safety can be analyzed and Intersection Safety combines by safety evaluation, provide lorry and run in intersection
Safety Influence Factors, in analyzing influence lorry intersection on the basis of operational safety factor, with can open up matter-element model theory,
The multiple attribute synthetical evaluation system of intersection operational safety is established, the safety evaluation for shipping intersection provides foundation.Therefore, object
The lorry intersection operational safety evaluation of meta-model will have vast potential for future development in China urban intersection security fields.
Therefore, those skilled in the art is dedicated to developing a kind of lorry friendship based on matter-element model to tally with the national condition
Prong operational safety evaluation method.
Summary of the invention
The present invention for existing lorry Intersection Safety it is excessively high to the degree of dependence of traffic conflict, lack reliability or
The characteristics of safety evaluation of China lorry intersection cannot effectively be adapted to, proposes a kind of lorry friendship based on matter-element model
Prong operational safety evaluation method.Since the Safety Influence Factors of urban road intersection are excessive and the unit of evaluation index is not united
One, it proposes the lorry Intersection Safety based on matter-element model and is adopted from Subjective Factors and objective influence factor
The mode combined is calculated with qualitative analysis and quantitatively, the factor that will affect lorry crossing safety is summarized and analyzed, selected
Evaluation points of the high index as Intersection Safety with the accident degree of association construct lorry intersection operational safety evaluation body
System；And by the way that comprehensive matter-element model can be opened up, by intersection and evaluation points simultaneous into the same matter-element model, by being associated with letter
Number calculates, and establishes correlation function expression formula；Then the matter-element weight coefficient of each evaluation points is calculated, and passes through integrated pipe degree of connection
The operation of lorry crossing safety is evaluated, it is last according to fuzzy membership maximum principle, judge that lorry intersection traffic is pacified
Full hierarchical level.
The technical solution of the present invention is as follows: a kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation based on matter-element model, including lorry
The determination of intersection operational safety evaluation system, Classical field and matter-element to be evaluated, matter-element correlation function to be evaluated, matter-element weight coefficient to be evaluated
And overall merit.By the influence factor of analyzing influence lorry intersection, determine intersection infrastructure, road traffic shape
The four big factors of condition, intersection service level and lorry unique characteristics as influence lorry crossing safety, and will be at its subdivision
Reason, obtain with the higher 13 primary evaluation indexs of the crossing safety degree of association, obtain the original of each impact factor by inquiry
Then the relative influence factor is standardized using matter-element model, obtains the dimensionless of each influence factor by beginning data
Data are solved by correlation function and Synthesis Relational Grade, and the lorry intersection operational safety to be tallied with the national condition is commented
Valence.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: the method for the present invention makes full use of historical traffic flows and current amount of traffic data to exist
The traffic characteristic of intersection peak period, the accurate transport need for handling peak period, improves operational efficiency, reduces transportation cost.This
Invention has high efficiency, reliability.
Below with reference to attached drawing, technical solution of the present invention, specific structure and control method are illustrated.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method overall flow figure of the invention
Fig. 2 is operational safety evaluation index system figure in lorry intersection of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is intersection evaluation factor table of the present invention；
Fig. 4 is crossing safety grade evaluation table of the present invention；
Fig. 5 is the traffic scale after each entrance driveway peak hour reduction in intersection of the present invention；
Fig. 6 is that intersection traffic of the present invention manages Comprehensive Evaluation of Sustainable Development table；
Fig. 7 is the weight coefficient table of the factor selected by the present invention.
Specific embodiment
As shown in Figure 1, first on crossing safety influence analysis, establish assessment indicator system on this basis, into
And consider truck traffic characteristic, with Region place value, correlation function scheduling theory, establish the matter-element mould of intersection truck headache evaluation
Type is calculated finally by Synthesis Relational Grade, makes overall merit to urban road intersection lorry operational safety, and according to reality
Case implementation result assessment indicator system, matter-element model and related weight coefficient are modified.
As shown in Fig. 2, being a kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation index system figure based on matter-element model, coordinating
In range, by the analysis to lorry crossing safety factor, the principle of combining assessment index screening using qualitative analysis and is determined
Amount calculates the method combined, and big classification is carried out to influence factor by qualitative analysis first, completes preliminary screening, by fixed
Property analysis, the influence factor that lorry crossing safety is run is summarized as intersection infrastructure, road traffic condition, intersection
The big factor of service level and lorry unique characteristics etc. four；And then by quantitative analysis, according to the spy of the accident of domestic and international intersection
Point and its occurrence cause select to engage in this profession with evaluation points of the high index of the accident degree of association as Intersection Safety, screening
13 primary evaluation factors such as road identifier marking, lorry flow.
In the establishment process of appraisement system, each intersection evaluation factor is comprehensively considered, is needed by infrastructure, traffic
It asks, transportation supplies and lorry feature, constantly the model evaluation factor is fed back and corrected, the side such as choose to exclude artificial parameter
The error in face.
Fig. 3 is the evaluation points table of Intersection Safety, is establishing lorry intersection operational safety evaluation index system
On the basis of figure, processing is numbered to each evaluation points, and establishes the matter-element model of 13 dimensions of a n=13, determines matter-element
The Classical field of model and matter-element to be evaluated, the correlation function of matter-element to be evaluated, matter-element weight coefficient to be evaluated.
Wherein Classical field and matter-element to be evaluated are as follows:
(1) Classical field designs
In formula, < ai,bi> (i=1,2, n) it is lorry crossing safety operation level situation N about CiIdentified magnitude
Range, i.e. Classical field < ai,bi>。
(2) matter-element to be evaluated
The corresponding data of the function points of lorry crossing safety development level to be evaluated is indicated with matter-element:
Above formula is the matter-element to be evaluated of lorry crossing safety Realize.X in formulai(i=1,2, n) it is evaluation points Ci's
Specific value, the i.e. measured value of the intersection evaluation factor.
Matter-element correlation function to be evaluated:
According to extension science basic theories and actual demand, in conjunction with matter-element model above, to reflect lorry crossing safety
Development level situation need to establish corresponding correlation function.Due to present document relates to each dimension of the factor be not quite similar, each desired value
It is variant, so its correlation function is not also identical.It is now assumed that correlation function is linear function, it is as follows function expression can be established:
xiBe positive correlation factor, xi≥bi,g(xi)=1 or xi≤ai,g(xi)=0；
xiBe negative correlation factor, xi≥bi,g(xi)=1 or xi≤ai,g(xi)=0；
In formula, g (xi) it is correlation function, aiFor the lower bound threshold value of Classical field, biFor the upper bound threshold value of Classical field.
Matter-element weight coefficient to be evaluated:
Detailed process is as follows:
Wherein,
In formula: tj- weight coefficient；
dij- middle transition variable；
ei- middle transition variable；
Zij- for value after standardization.
In formula:- it is magnitude XijMean value；
σiThe standard deviation of-magnitude.
Fig. 4 is crossing safety grade evaluation table, due to ginseng in need of consideration when carrying out lorry Intersection Safety
Number is more, therefore this comprehensive study evaluates crossing safety, i.e., is evaluated using Synthesis Relational Grade:
Wherein ξ is lorry intersection operational safety Synthesis Relational Grade,And g (xi) it is piecewise linear function, institute
Using overall merit as nonlinear analysis.The evaluation criterion for analyzing crossing safety is mainly foundation fuzzy membership maximum principle,
Judge lorry intersection traffic level of security grade, the value classification of Synthesis Relational Grade can refer to the single of urban sustainable development
Property point system.ξ is evaluated into lorry crossing safety Realize by the value of Synthesis Relational Grade.
Fig. 5 is the traffic scale after each entrance driveway peak hour reduction in intersection, after establishing matter-element model, carries out case point
Analysis and verifying.Yangpu district of Shanghai military project road is chosen in research and Yangpu goods yard, truck are adjoined in the road Zhou Jiazui intersection, periphery
Ratio is higher.This research is investigated on the 30th March -2018 years on the 19th March in 2018, it is main investigate evening peak hour (17:
00-18:00) intersection data, each inlet flow rate, lorry quantity, it is as shown in Figure 5 that the peak hour is reduced the volume of traffic.It therefrom can be with
Find out, truck compares up to 18.73%, and intersection flow peak 3727pcu, saturation degree 0.81 is typical lorry intersection
Operational safety evaluation object.
Fig. 6 is that intersection traffic manages Comprehensive Evaluation of Sustainable Development table, and Fig. 7 is the weight coefficient of the factor selected by the present invention
Table carries out objective analysis to the principal element for influencing intersection traffic management Sustainable Development Level, selects in Fig. 1 and specifically evaluate
The factor is calculated as the evaluation points of evaluation according to the current value of each evaluation index in formula (5)~(10) and Fig. 6
Weighted value to the weight of each impact factor, each evaluation points is as shown in Figure 7.
The results show that carrying out intersection multiple attribute synthetical evaluation, intersection according to the evaluation points of selected intersection operation
The scoring of infrastructure considers whether mark is mating, the Specifications such as visual, then calculates lorry crossing safety water
Flat integrated pipe connection degree.Wherein take benchmark of the arithmetic mean of instantaneous value of each evaluation index of 2010-2015 in Fig. 6 as index
Value takes the planning value of each index of the year two thousand twenty for the target value of Intersection Safety, constructs Classical field, establishes lorry intersection fortune
The matter-element model of row safety, constructs correlation function, the correlation function of each index is calculated according to formula (4).
It will be appreciated from fig. 6 that the intersection capacity of the intersection, Manpower Transportation amount, truck traffic amount, intersection row
The degree of association of the intersection traffics factor of safety such as conflict of team leader's degree, lorry and non-motor vehicle, lorry and car is higher, value
Both greater than 0.6, intersection capacity, Manpower Transportation amount, truck traffic amount etc. be even more more than 0.8, illustrate lorry with it is non-
The crossing safety situation of motor vehicle is more stable on the whole, and lorry and the degree of association of Pedestrian conflicts' factor are lower, illustrates to intersect
There are also to be further improved in terms of mouthful corresponding to this index.
According to formula (11), the safe condition level of this intersection is calculated in conjunction with above-mentioned each index weights and degree of association coefficient
Synthesis Relational Grade is 0.56, looks into Fig. 4 it is found that the lorry intersection operational safety evaluation grade is " safer ".The intersection
Safety reasonable, intersection can bear increased safe pressure year by year substantially；Pedestrian, vehicle and intersection infrastructure are all
Relatively reasonable management measure is taken, three is able to maintain coordination；Intersection basis should also be reinforced in following development to set
Pedestrian's street crossing is effectively dredged in the construction applied, and promotes operational safety of the lorry by intersection, to enhance the safe water of intersection
It is flat.
Therefore we may safely draw the conclusion:
(1) the lorry Intersection Safety based on matter-element model, can by multiple correlation factors it is relatively simple turn
It changes crossing safety Synthesis Relational Grade into, by analyzing the field survey data of intersection correlation factor, can further analyze
Every level of security of intersection.
(2) by setting lorry intersection operational safety evaluation system, correlation function is constructed, is commented using matter-element model can be opened up
Valence method evaluates lorry intersection operational safety, obtains current military project Lu Zhoujia mouth road intersection in safer shape
State, wherein the degree of association of pedestrian traffic amount and lorry and Pedestrian conflicts are lower, it is also necessary to reinforce the safety guidance of pedestrian's street crossing.
(3) factor for influencing lorry intersection operational safety is complicated and changeable, and matter-element model is due in terms of safety evaluation
Advantage and have wide application prospects.How to ensure that the science of the lorry Intersection Safety factor is the weight further studied
Point.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method based on matter-element model, it is characterised in that: including giving intersection
Truck traffic manages the influence factor of Sustainable Development Level, then establishes relevant appraisement system, is considering that truck traffic is special
Property on the basis of, in extension science matter-element model and Region place value, correlation function it is theoretical, establish the evaluation of intersection truck headache
Matter-element model, calculated by Synthesis Relational Grade, overall merit made to urban road intersection lorry operational safety.Final
Lorry crossing safety Operation class is safer out.
2. a kind of lorry intersection operational safety evaluation method based on matter-element model according to claim 1, feature
It is to mainly comprise the steps that
(1) foundation of lorry crossing safety postitallation evaluation system.The factor for influencing lorry intersection operational safety is broadly divided into
Subjective and objective both sides factor, the principle of combining assessment index screening are combined using qualitative analysis and quantitative calculating
The influence factor that lorry crossing safety is run is summarized as intersection infrastructure, road first by qualitative analysis by method
The big factor of traffic condition, intersection service level and lorry unique characteristics etc. four；And then by quantitative analysis, according to domestic diplomacy
The characteristics of accident of prong and its occurrence cause select and evaluation of the high index of the accident degree of association as Intersection Safety
The factor filters out 13 primary evaluation indexs such as highway sign and marking, lorry flow, constructs lorry crossing safety postitallation evaluation
Index system.
(2) design of Classical field and matter-element to be evaluated.Made with the evaluation index in lorry crossing safety postitallation evaluation index system
For evaluation points, matter-element model is established, provides the matter-element to be evaluated of lorry crossing safety.
(3) matter-element correlation function to be evaluated is established.According to extension science basic theories and actual demand, in conjunction with matter-element model above,
To reflect lorry crossing safety development level situation, corresponding correlation function is established.
(4) determination of matter-element weight coefficient to be evaluated.Each evaluation index is a factor in correlation function, to intersection
The influence of safety determines that the determination of weight needs to calculate by specific weight coefficient by weight.
(5) Comprehensive Safety Assessment is carried out to lorry intersection.Due in need of consideration when carrying out lorry Intersection Safety
Parameter is more, therefore this comprehensive study evaluates crossing safety, i.e., is evaluated using Synthesis Relational Grade.Analyze crossing safety
Evaluation criterion be mainly to judge lorry intersection traffic level of security grade according to fuzzy membership maximum principle, it is comprehensive to close
The value classification of connection degree can refer to the unicity point system of urban sustainable development.ξ is evaluated by the value of Synthesis Relational Grade
Lorry crossing safety Realize, crossing safety grade is referring to crossing safety grade evaluation table.
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Cited By (2)
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| CN112508392A (en) * | 2020-12-02 | 2021-03-16 | 云南省交通规划设计研究院有限公司 | Dynamic evaluation method for traffic conflict risk of hidden danger road section of mountain area double-lane highway |
| CN117273487A (en) * | 2023-09-18 | 2023-12-22 | 江苏城乡建设职业学院 | Safety facility lifting method and system based on rural highway |
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