CN108711266A - Thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning - Google Patents

Thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning Download PDF

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CN108711266A
CN108711266A CN201810558517.0A CN201810558517A CN108711266A CN 108711266 A CN108711266 A CN 108711266A CN 201810558517 A CN201810558517 A CN 201810558517A CN 108711266 A CN108711266 A CN 108711266A
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electric field
lightning
thunder
atmospheric electric
early warning
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CN108711266B (en
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靳小兵
卜俊伟
张亮
詹兆渝
纪奎秀
孙蕊
罗玉
马艳军
巫俊威
周威
张远洋
刘畅
杨了
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Sichuan Lightning Protection Center
Sichuan Meteorological Data Center
Sichuan Meteorological Observatory
Climate Center Of Sichuan Province
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Sichuan Lightning Protection Center
Sichuan Meteorological Data Center
Sichuan Meteorological Observatory
Climate Center Of Sichuan Province
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    • G08SIGNALLING
    • G08BSIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
    • G08B21/00Alarms responsive to a single specified undesired or abnormal condition and not otherwise provided for
    • G08B21/02Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons
    • G08B21/10Alarms for ensuring the safety of persons responsive to calamitous events, e.g. tornados or earthquakes

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Abstract

It the present invention relates to Lightning Warning field, discloses that a kind of thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning, to improve Lightning Warning accuracy rate, reduces rate of failing to report.The present invention is by collecting the lightning detection network in early warning regional a period of time and the atmospheric electric field detector simultaneous observation data of waiting for, and the data to being collected into carries out quality and orders;Typical thunder and lightning weather case is filtered out from sample set, and to carrying out Timing Difference, obtains the corresponding differential threshold of each case;By statistical analysis, obtains and wait for that the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold of thunder and lightning occurs for early warning area and atmospheric electric field changes over time rate threshold value for a period of time;Rate threshold value is changed over time using test set to atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field to test, rate threshold value is changed over time using atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field after test passes and is used as warning index, the progress of early warning area is treated thunder and lightning is short and face local early warning.The present invention is suitable for Chengdu Plain area and carries out short interim Lightning Warning.

Description

Thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning
Technical field
The present invention relates to Lightning Warning fields, more particularly to the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short faces local method for early warning.
Background technology
Two methods are generally used for Lightning Warning both at home and abroad at present:
1, Lighting position machine method:
Thunder and lightning is monitored in real time by the realization of networking Lighting position machine, according to thunder and lightning drop point and radar, the wind actually occurred Field data determines the possible probability settled in an area and occurred of the following thunder and lightning.The method defect is to judge according to lightning monitoring fact The following lightening activity trending early warning timeliness lag, and Lighting position machine detection efficient and detection accuracy are depended on, general thunder and lightning is visited Survey efficiency efficiency >70%, Tan Cejingdu <3km.However Sichuan Province's lightning detection network building time is 2005, actual detection efficiency Yi Jing <50%, Tan Cejingdu >5km.Due to such method in early warning timeliness and accuracy to lightning detection network detection efficient It is too high with precision dependence, there is larger defect, Lightning Warning rate of failing to report is too high, and without timeliness in advance.
2, atmospheric electric field threshold method:
This method is by installing an atmospheric electric field detector in a certain Lightning Warning demand point, measuring various weather conditions Lower Air Close To The Earth Surface vertical electrostatic field intensity, polarity consecutive variations, while periphery electrification cloud cluster and thunder discharge institute can be detected Caused electric field change reaches early warning by the way that atmospheric electric field threshold value is arranged.Such method needs first to this area's atmospheric electric field Instrument background value is studied, then the anomalous variation atmospheric electric field threshold value of atmospheric electric field when thunder and lightning arriving is preceding or lightning occurs is arranged. Early-stage study shows that Chengdu Plain area Lightning Warning threshold value is ± 2~5kV/m, to future 0- dozens of minutes in a certain range Within imminent thunder and lightning carry out early warning.Although the method is only related with Instrument working state, data gaps and omissions situation is less, There are following three points defects:
(1) when thunder cloud occurs close to atmospheric electric field detector or thunder and lightning, it is based on electrostatics basic principle, charges cloud cluster or thunder Electricity will cause atmospheric electric field value to occur deviateing the anomalous variation of fine day variation rules of atmosphere, be expressed as follows with Gauss formula:
Er=Q/ (4 π ε r3)
From above-mentioned formula it can be seen that atmospheric electric field intensity is with electric field strength and atmospheric electricity caused by thunder and lightning or electrification cloud cluster Field instrument is decayed apart from electrification cloud cluster or thunder and lightning in distance r, therefore electric field instrument to thunder and lightning or charges cloud cluster early warning range it is not possible that too Greatly, therefore electric field data effective range is within the radius 10-20km of atmospheric electric field detector position.Currently with atmospheric electric field pair Lightning Warning does not consider that the range attenuation factor acts in addition to me.
(2) according to-Sichuan Province's lighting location data and the inspection of Sichuan Province's atmospheric electric field observational data at present in 2013, It was found that using Sichuan in the effective coverage for thering is atmospheric electric field detector to layout, using atmospheric electric field is made to thunder and lightning early warning pre-set time Up to 10 minutes.Therefore using the true pre-warning time of atmospheric electric field detector far below the dozens of minutes in shop instruction.
(3) Chengdu Plain area when between cloud-ground electrostatic field strength reach a certain threshold value will will produce breakdown and form lightning, this When electric field strength variation will be in oscillation on large scale shake.But according to atmospheric electricity theory Er=f (Q, ε, r, Δ E/ Δ T),rBreakdown Electric field threshold value and dielectric constant of air ε, sensing point and Lightning position distance r, electrification cloud cluster quantity of electric charge Q and electric field strength change rate Δ E/ Δs T is related, when discharge position is closer apart from electric field instrument, it is also contemplated that electrification cloud level degree H.
Current all producers do not consider that electric field strength change rate Δ E/ Δs T causes to utilize air when threshold value of warning is arranged Electric field early warning thunder and lightning false alarm rate is high, accuracy rate is low, cannot so far fail formally to enter meteorological Lightning Warning business by examining.
The it is proposeds such as dull, Zhang Qilin, Qie Xiu book etc., Li Yin be brave, it should which electric field change rate is included in early warning factor, and king It is strong et al.《Efficiency analysis of the electric field Timing Difference in Lightning Warning》, Meteorological Science, 2009,29 (5):In 657-663 It proposes to extract atmospheric electric field change rate technical method using Timing Difference method, but does not propose extraction electric field change rate at present Time interval and atmospheric electric field change over time rate specific targets, therefore can not be in the practical application in Lightning Warning business.
Invention content
The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to:There is provided that a kind of thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning, To improve Lightning Warning accuracy rate, rate of failing to report is reduced.
To solve the above problems, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is:Thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local early warning Method includes the following steps:
Step 1, collection wait for the lightning detection network in early warning regional a period of time and atmospheric electric field detector simultaneous observation data, and Are done by quality and is corrected for different model, the atmospheric electric field detector data of batch in the simultaneous observation data that is collected into;
The revised simultaneous observation data of quality is divided into sample set and test set by step 2;
Step 3 filters out typical thunder and lightning weather case from sample set, and being obtained from each typical thunder and lightning weather case will The atmospheric electric field intensity before thunder and lightning occurs, and corresponds to the atmospheric electricity of time to thunder and lightning synoptic process in each typical thunder and lightning weather case Field carries out Timing Difference, obtains atmospheric electric field intensity before thunder and lightning will occur and changes over time rate whithin a period of time;
Step 4, all atmospheric electric field intensity obtained to step 3 and atmospheric electric field intensity become at any time whithin a period of time Rate is for statistical analysis, obtains the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold for waiting for early warning area generation thunder and lightning and atmospheric electric field intensity at one section Rate threshold value is changed over time in time;
Step 5, the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold obtained to step 4 using test set and atmospheric electric field intensity are in a period of time It inside changes over time rate threshold value to be tested, and test result is evaluated;It, will at this time if test result is met the requirements Atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity change over time the output of rate threshold value whithin a period of time, and enter step 6;If Test result is unsatisfactory for requiring, then return to step 3;
Step 6 changes over time rate threshold value work with atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity whithin a period of time For warning index, treats early warning area and carry out that thunder and lightning is short to face local early warning.
Further, step 3 is to corresponding to thunder and lightning synoptic process in each typical thunder and lightning weather case the atmospheric electric field of time 5 or 10 minutes Timing Differences are carried out, 5 and 10 minutes Timing Difference threshold values, 5 or 10 minutes Timing Difference threshold value difference are respectively obtained It is exactly that atmospheric electric field changes over time rate in 0-5 minutes and in 0-10 minutes.
Further, the condition of the typical thunder and lightning weather case of the screening of step 3 is:Thunder and lightning occurs in thunder and lightning synoptic process Number is more than M times, and thunder and lightning is less than N kms at a distance from atmospheric electric field observation station, wherein M is positive integer, and N is positive number, based on big Observation station actual conditions in pneumoelectric field consider that M is generally 40, N according to actual conditions to take.
Further, in steps of 5, the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold E0 of output meets:KV/m orKV/m or
The atmospheric electric field of output changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T5 in 0-5 minutes and meets: KV/m. minute orMinute orMinute;
The atmospheric electric field of output changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T in 0-10 minutes10Meet: KV/m. minute orMinute.
Further, the warning index is:
Further, the warning index is:
Further, the warning index is:
Further, the warning index is:
Further, the warning index is:
Further, the warning index is:
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:Since the warning index of the present invention has considered atmospheric electric field threshold value and atmospheric electricity Field changes over time rate threshold value, therefore than using traditional atmospheric electric field threshold method Lightning Warning accuracy rate raising, thunder and lightning false alarm rate It reduces, rate of failing to report is greatly reduced.Meanwhile the present invention can not depend on lighting location instrument in no lightning detection network and radar coverage Domain realizes that independent thunder and lightning closes on local early warning in short-term, and by the interpretation of result of embodiment, the present invention is more pre- than lighting location instrument method Have in alarm method timeliness it is certain in advance and rate of failing to report reduces.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of embodiment.
Specific implementation mode
The present invention collects first waits for the lightning detection network in early warning regional a period of time and atmospheric electric field detector simultaneous observation money Material, and different model, the atmospheric electric field detector data of batch are done quality and are corrected in the simultaneous observation data to being collected into;Then by matter It measures revised simultaneous observation data and is divided into sample set and test set;Then typical thunder and lightning weather case is filtered out from sample set Example, screening conditions can be thunder and lightning number occurs in thunder and lightning synoptic process to be more than M time, and thunder and lightning and atmospheric electric field observation station away from From less than N kms;Then the atmospheric electric field intensity before obtaining will occurring thunder and lightning in each typical thunder and lightning weather case, and to each Thunder and lightning synoptic process corresponds to the atmospheric electric field of time and carries out Timing Difference in typical thunder and lightning weather case, obtains that thunder and lightning will occur Preceding atmospheric electric field intensity changes over time rate whithin a period of time;Then all atmospheric electric field intensity and atmospheric electric field to obtaining Intensity changes over time that rate is for statistical analysis whithin a period of time, obtains the atmospheric electric field intensity for waiting for that thunder and lightning occurs for early warning area Threshold value and atmospheric electric field intensity change over time rate threshold value whithin a period of time;Then using test set to obtained atmospheric electric field Intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity change over time rate threshold value and are tested whithin a period of time, and comment test result Valence;If test result is met the requirements, by this time atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity whithin a period of time with Time rate of change threshold value exports;If test result is unsatisfactory for requiring, by adjusting screening conditions (such as adjustment M or N Value) to screen typical thunder and lightning weather case and atmospheric electric field intensity again rate is changed over time whithin a period of time, and acquire Wait for that the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold of thunder and lightning occurs for early warning area and atmospheric electric field intensity changes over time rate threshold whithin a period of time Value, until test result is met the requirements;Finally whithin a period of time at any time with atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity Between change rate threshold value as warning index, treat early warning area and carry out that thunder and lightning is short to face local early warning.Since this method considers Atmospheric electric field threshold value and atmospheric electric field change over time rate threshold value, therefore than using traditional atmospheric electric field threshold method Lightning Warning Accuracy rate improves, thunder and lightning false alarm rate reduces, rate of failing to report is greatly reduced.
Below by taking Chengdu Plain area of the height above sea level less than 600m as an example, the present invention will be further described.
According to the observation of -2017 years 2014 Chengdu plains region atmospheric electric field and lightning detection network test result, thunder and lightning comes Not only atmospheric electric field intensity can reach a certain threshold value before facing or when thunder and lightning occurs, and electric field strength changes over time rate Δ E/ Within a certain period of time or a certain range of variation occurs for Δ T.Therefore when using atmospheric electric field to plains region Lightning Warning, Embodiment must use thunder and lightning generation atmospheric electric field threshold value to change over time rate combined pre-warning with combination atmospheric electric field and could realize Lightning Warning truly.As shown in Figure 1, embodiment is as follows:
Step 1 collects -2017 years 2014 lightning detection networks in Chengdu Plain area and atmospheric electric field detector simultaneous observation money Material, and different model, the atmospheric electric field detector data of batch are done quality and are corrected in the simultaneous observation data to being collected into, such as will be from Scattered data are corrected.
The revised simultaneous observation data of quality is divided into sample set and test set by step 2, and this example was by 2014-2015 The simultaneous observation data in year is as sample set, using -2017 years 2016 simultaneous observation data as test set.
Step 3 occurs thunder and lightning number and is more than 50 times and thunder and lightning and air from being filtered out in sample set in thunder and lightning synoptic process The distance of electric field observation station is less than the case of 40 kms, and as typical thunder and lightning weather case, from each typical thunder and lightning weather It obtains that the atmospheric electric field intensity before thunder and lightning will occur in case, and to thunder and lightning synoptic process pair in each typical thunder and lightning weather case Atmospheric electric field between seasonable carries out 5 and 10 minutes Timing Differences, respectively obtains 5 and 10 minutes Timing Difference threshold values, 5 and 10 minutes Timing Difference threshold value is exactly that atmospheric electric field changes over time rate, electric field Timing Difference in 0-5 minutes and in 0-10 minutes respectively Specific method can refer to:Wang Qiang, Wang Jianchu, Gu Yudan, efficiency analysis of the electric field Timing Difference in Lightning Warning, gas Elephantidae is learned, 2009,29 (5):657-663.
Step 4, the atmospheric electric field intensity obtained to step 3, atmospheric electric field change over time rate and big in 0-5 minutes Pneumoelectric field changes over time that rate is for statistical analysis in 0-10 minutes, obtains the atmospheric electricity field strength for waiting for that thunder and lightning occurs for early warning area Degree threshold value, atmospheric electric field change over time rate threshold value and atmospheric electric field in 0-5 minutes and are changed over time in 0-10 minutes Rate threshold value.
Step 5, atmospheric electric field intensity threshold step 4 obtained using test set, atmospheric electric field in 0-5 minutes at any time Change rate threshold value and atmospheric electric field change over time rate threshold value in 0-10 minutes and are tested, and to the void in test result Alert rate and rate of failing to report are evaluated;If the false alarm rate and rate of failing to report in test result are unsatisfactory for requiring, return to step 3;If surveying False alarm rate and rate of failing to report in test result are met the requirements, then by this time atmospheric electric field intensity threshold, atmospheric electric field is at 0-5 minutes It inside changes over time rate threshold value and atmospheric electric field and changes over time the output of rate threshold value in 0-10 minutes, and enter step 6.
The exportable following satisfactory threshold value of this step:
1, atmospheric electric field intensity threshold E0 meets:KV/m orKV/m or
2, atmospheric electric field changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T5 in 0-5 minutes and meets:Point Clock orKV/m. minute orKV/m. minute;
3, atmospheric electric field changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T in 0-10 minutes10Meet: KV/m. minute orKV/m. minute.
Step 6 changes over time rate threshold value work with atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity whithin a period of time For warning index, treats early warning area and carry out that thunder and lightning is short to face local early warning.Wherein, the atmospheric electric field intensity described in this step is one Rate threshold value is changed over time either it can also be big that atmospheric electric field changes over time rate threshold value in 0-5 minutes in the section time Pneumoelectric field changes over time rate threshold value in 0-10 minutes, and then embodiment warning index can have following combination condition:
In practice, we can use various combination condition threshold according to early warning object to early warning timeliness demand, if It can accomplish maximum 5 minutes in advance within the scope of atmospheric electric field detector radius 10km as warning index using (1) or (2) or (3) Thunder and lightning carries out early warning, and changing over time rate threshold value according to (4) or (5) or (6) can accomplish that maximum shifts to an earlier date as warning index Early warning was carried out to thunder and lightning within the scope of atmospheric electric field detector radius 10km in 10 minutes.
It is verified by actual Lightning Warning, we can obtain following effect:
In conditional combination (1)-(3), the early warning effect of conditional combination (1) is optimal, and early warning success rate is 91%, false-alarm Rate is 3%, rate of failing to report 6%, and timeliness reaches 0-3 minutes.In addition, conditional combination (2) is for stronger thunder and lightning synoptic process effect Preferably, but higher to weak thunder and lightning rate of failing to report, i.e., early warning success rate reduces, while early warning timeliness reduces, and early warning range is smaller;Condition Combine (3) it is sensitive higher for weak thunder and lightning, rate of failing to report is relatively low, but false alarm rate is higher, and early warning timeliness is also higher, early warning range also compared with Greatly.
In conditional combination (4)-(6), the early warning effect of conditional combination (4) is optimal, and early warning success rate is 87%, false alarm rate It is 6%, rate of failing to report 7%, timeliness reaches 0-6 minutes.In addition, conditional combination (5) for stronger thunder and lightning synoptic process effect compared with Good but higher to weak thunder and lightning rate of failing to report, i.e., early warning success rate reduces, while early warning timeliness reduces, and early warning range is smaller;Condition group Conjunction (6) program is sensitive higher for weak thunder and lightning, and rate of failing to report is relatively low, but false alarm rate is higher, and early warning timeliness is also higher, early warning range Also larger.
To sum up, embodiment is short for Chengdu Plain area, interim Lightning Warning when, may make Lightning Warning accuracy rate to carry High, thunder and lightning false alarm rate reduces, rate of failing to report is greatly reduced.

Claims (10)

1. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short to face local method for early warning, which is characterized in that include the following steps:
Step 1, collection wait for the lightning detection network in early warning regional a period of time and atmospheric electric field detector simultaneous observation data, and to receiving Different model, the atmospheric electric field detector data of batch are done quality and are corrected in the simultaneous observation data collected;
The revised simultaneous observation data of quality is divided into sample set and test set by step 2;
Step 3 filters out typical thunder and lightning weather case from sample set, obtains to occur from each typical thunder and lightning weather case Atmospheric electric field intensity before thunder and lightning, and to thunder and lightning synoptic process in each typical thunder and lightning weather case correspond to the atmospheric electric field of time into Row Timing Difference obtains atmospheric electric field intensity before thunder and lightning will occur and changes over time rate whithin a period of time;
Step 4, all atmospheric electric field intensity obtained to step 3 and atmospheric electric field intensity change over time rate whithin a period of time It is for statistical analysis, obtain the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold for waiting for early warning area generation thunder and lightning and atmospheric electric field intensity in a period of time Inside change over time rate threshold value;
Step 5, the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold that step 4 is obtained using test set and atmospheric electric field intensity whithin a period of time with Time rate of change threshold value is tested, and is evaluated test result;If test result is met the requirements, by air at this time Electric field strength threshold value and atmospheric electric field intensity change over time the output of rate threshold value whithin a period of time, and enter step 6;If test As a result it is unsatisfactory for requiring, then return to step 3;
Step 6 changes over time rate threshold value using atmospheric electric field intensity threshold and atmospheric electric field intensity as in advance whithin a period of time Alert index treats early warning area and carries out that thunder and lightning is short to face local early warning.
2. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as described in claim 1 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that step 3 is right The atmospheric electric field of time is corresponded to thunder and lightning synoptic process in each typical thunder and lightning weather case and carries out 5 or 10 minutes Timing Differences, point Atmospheric electric field is not obtained changes over time rate in 0-5 minutes and in 0-10 minutes.
3. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 2 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that step 3 The condition of the typical thunder and lightning weather case of screening is:Thunder and lightning number occurs in thunder and lightning synoptic process to be more than 50 times, and thunder and lightning and air The distance of electric field observation station is less than 40 kms.
4. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 3 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that in step 5 In, the atmospheric electric field intensity threshold E0 of output meets:OrOr
The atmospheric electric field of output changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T5 in 0-5 minutes and meets: OrOr
The atmospheric electric field of output changes over time rate threshold value Δ E/ Δs T in 0-10 minutes10Meet: Or
5. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 4 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that the early warning Index is:
6. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 4 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that the early warning Index is:
7. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 4 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that the early warning Index is:
8. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 3 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that the early warning Index is:
9. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 4 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that the early warning Index is:
10. the thunder and lightning based on atmospheric electric field is short as claimed in claim 4 faces local method for early warning, which is characterized in that described pre- Warning index is:
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CN112540235A (en) * 2019-09-20 2021-03-23 中国石油化工股份有限公司 Method and system for correcting lightning early warning threshold value and early warning evaluation method and system
CN112782783A (en) * 2020-12-28 2021-05-11 四川省气象灾害防御技术中心 Sunny screening method
CN113985148A (en) * 2021-11-04 2022-01-28 湖南省气象灾害防御技术中心 Thunder and lightning forecasting method and thunder and lightning forecasting equipment
CN113985145A (en) * 2021-09-13 2022-01-28 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 Thunder and lightning early warning method, early warning device and computer readable storage medium
CN117970533A (en) * 2024-03-29 2024-05-03 中科飞龙(厦门)科技发展有限公司 Lightning primary forecasting method based on atmospheric electric field

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CN113985148A (en) * 2021-11-04 2022-01-28 湖南省气象灾害防御技术中心 Thunder and lightning forecasting method and thunder and lightning forecasting equipment
CN117970533A (en) * 2024-03-29 2024-05-03 中科飞龙(厦门)科技发展有限公司 Lightning primary forecasting method based on atmospheric electric field

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