CN108572402A - The prediction technique of convection weather - Google Patents
The prediction technique of convection weather Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of prediction technique of convection weather, first the convection weather phenomenon of basis for many years is live and physical data obtains multiple characterization physical quantitys and each threshold values for characterizing physical quantity for the prediction technique；It is grouped according to the symbolical meanings of the characterization physical quantity；The characterization physical quantity after grouping is divided into Pyatyi according to the threshold values piecewise linearity.Weather phenomenon is related with multiple characterization physical quantitys, determines the characterization physical quantity related with each weather phenomenon respectively；Each physical quantity of real data is compared with the threshold values of each characterization physical quantity respectively, if meeting the threshold values of all characterization physical quantitys of certain weather phenomenon, the weather phenomenon will occur in prediction；Otherwise, be not in the weather phenomenon.The prediction technique can be applied to different numerical weather prediction models, can objectively predict convection weather, and the value of forecasting is preferable.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to weather prediction techniques fields, and in particular, to a kind of prediction technique of convection weather.
Background technology
Convective Weather have the characteristics that local it is strong, it is sudden it is strong, scale is small, life cycle is of short duration, according to influencing and broken
Bad property, although the type of different national specific strong convective weathers of interest is different, the forecast of strong convective weather is international
The problem of property.
Thunder and lightning, in short-term heavy showers, Convective strong wind, hail etc. are as caused by convection weather, and forecast is difficult.Needle
The strong convective weathers such as short-time strong rainfall, Convective strong wind and hail to China, the strong convective weather for closing on the period is pre- within 0-2 hours
Report can be solved by means of the extrapolation technique of the remote sensing datas such as weather warning radar and meteorological satellite, 2-6 hours periods in short-term
Severe Convective Weather Forecasting can be carried out by means of the integration technology of quick assimilation system and remote sensing and numerical forecast, but 6 hours
Strong convection forecast to several days short-term periods depends on Numerical Prediction Models.
The weather forecast of the short-term period of National Meteorological Center depends on the generation of weatherman's manual manufacture for a long time,
Primarily directed to the analysis of environmental condition, the result of forecast depends on the subjective judgement of weatherman, has some limitations.
Therefore, a kind of prediction technique how is invented, different numerical weather prediction models is can be applied not only to, additionally it is possible to
Objectively prediction convection weather is the technical issues of those skilled in the art are badly in need of solving.
Invention content
The object of the present invention is to provide a kind of prediction technique of convection weather, which can be applied to different
Numerical weather prediction model can objectively predict convection weather, and the value of forecasting is preferable.
In order to achieve the above technical purposes, the present invention provides a kind of prediction technique of convection weather, include the following steps：
S1, according to convection weather for many years is live and physical data obtains multiple characterization physical quantitys and each characterization physical quantity
Threshold values；
S2 is grouped according to the symbolical meanings of the characterization physical quantity；By the characterization physical quantity after grouping according to
Threshold values piecewise linearity is divided into Pyatyi；
S3, convection weather phenomenon is related with multiple characterization physical quantitys, determines institute related with each convection weather phenomenon respectively
State characterization physical quantity；
Each physical quantity of real data is compared with the threshold values of each characterization physical quantity, if met by S4 respectively
The weather phenomenon will occur in the threshold values of all characterization physical quantitys of certain convection weather phenomenon, then prediction；Otherwise, be not in this
Weather phenomenon.
Optionally, in step S2, when to the characterization physical quantity piece-wise linearization, weak, weak arrive is divided into according to the threshold values
It is medium, medium, in wait until strong, strong Pyatyi, and use 1,2,3,4,5 to characterize corresponding grade points respectively.
Optionally, in step S4, the grade point that will meet each physical quantity of certain convection weather phenomenon is added, obtained value
The bigger probability for corresponding convection weather phenomenon occur is bigger.
Optionally, the characterization physical quantity related with heavy showers in short-term includes：It is atmospheric precipitable water, relatively wet
Degree, the most instable significant level lifting index, K indexes, bottom divergence.
Optionally, the characterization physical quantity related with hail includes：Atmospheric precipitable water, the most instable significant level lifting
Index, low layer divergence, 0-6km vertical wind shears, 0 degree of layer height, convective available potential energy.
Optionally, the characterization physical quantity related with thunder and lightning includes：The most instable significant level is lifted index, convection current significance bit
Energy, low layer divergence, whole atmosphere relative humidity.
The present invention provides a kind of prediction technique of convection weather, the prediction technique is first live according to convection weather for many years
The threshold values of multiple characterization physical quantitys and each characterization physical quantity is obtained with physical data；Then, according to the characterization physical quantity
Symbolical meanings be grouped；The characterization physical quantity after grouping is divided into Pyatyi according to the threshold values piecewise linearity.It
Gas phenomenon is related with multiple characterization physical quantitys, determines the characterization physical quantity related with each weather phenomenon respectively；Later,
Each physical quantity of real data is compared with the threshold values of each characterization physical quantity respectively, if meeting certain weather
The weather phenomenon will occur in the threshold values of all characterization physical quantitys of phenomenon, then prediction；Otherwise, be not in the weather phenomenon.
The prediction technique is mainly used in the forecast of the Convective Weather phenomenon of short-term period, can objectively forecast convection current
Weather phenomenon, which first carries out automatic identification to environmental condition, by way of being compared with each characterization physical quantity, to ring
The degree that border condition meets convection weather phenomenon is portrayed, to obtain the prediction structure of the convection weather phenomenon.The prediction
Method can be applied to different numerical weather prediction models, can objectively predict convection weather, and the value of forecasting is preferable.
Description of the drawings
Attached drawing is to be used to provide further understanding of the present invention, an and part for constitution instruction, with following tool
Body embodiment is used to explain the present invention together, but is not construed as limiting the invention.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the prediction technique of convection weather provided by the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
The specific implementation mode of the present invention is described in detail below in conjunction with attached drawing.It should be understood that this place is retouched
The specific implementation mode stated is merely to illustrate and explain the present invention, and is not intended to restrict the invention.
Referring to FIG. 1, Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the prediction technique of convection weather provided by the present invention.
In a kind of specific embodiment, the present invention provides a kind of prediction technique of Convective Weather, including it is following
Step：
Step S1, it is live and physical data obtains multiple characterization physical quantitys and each characterization physics according to convection weather for many years
The threshold values of amount；
Step S2 is grouped according to the symbolical meanings of the characterization physical quantity；By the characterization physical quantity after grouping according to
The threshold values piecewise linearity is divided into Pyatyi；
Step S3, convection weather phenomenon is related with multiple characterization physical quantitys, and determination is related with each convection weather phenomenon respectively
The characterization physical quantity；
Each physical quantity of real data is compared with the threshold values of each characterization physical quantity by step S4 respectively, if
Meet the threshold values of all characterization physical quantitys of certain convection weather phenomenon, then the weather phenomenon will occur in prediction；Otherwise, will not go out
The now weather phenomenon.
The prediction technique is mainly used in the forecast of the convection weather phenomenon of short-term period, can objectively forecast convection current day
Gas phenomenon first carries out automatic identification to environmental condition and meets certain to environmental condition by way of being compared with each characterization physical quantity
The degree of kind convection weather phenomenon is portrayed, to obtain the forecast result of the convection weather phenomenon.
The prediction process of the prediction technique is not related to generate the physical process of convection weather phenomenon, and forecast is convection current day
The environmental condition of gas phenomenon, the prediction technique can be applied to different numerical weather prediction models, can objectively predict convection current
Weather, and the value of forecasting is preferable
By taking precipitation as an example, for the angle of synoptic meteorology, precipitation is the product condensed by lifting humid air.Enough steam contains
Amount, the ascending motion of air and rapid uplift are to generate the necessary condition of high rate of rainall.For short-time strong rainfall, environment is big
Gas also needs to meet some conditions in terms of steam, heating power and power, and these conditions are can to obtain table by physical quantity
Sign.
In order to obtain with symbolical meanings physical quantity, can by two different modes to multiple characterization physical quantitys into
Row analysis, one is the powers of the short-time strong rainfall Environment Implication based on box traction substation to differentiate, one is scored based on inspection
Physical quantity indicative significance sequence.The former carries out on the basis of physical quantity is classified, and the latter is pure mathematical statistics, not
Consider the physical significance of physical quantity.But in comparison, the former physical meaning is more clear.The prediction technique is established in table
On the basis of sign physical quantity identification.
This prediction technique is established on the basis of experience and statistics, is had compared to the method for pure experience higher credible
Degree, simultaneously because used it is based on statistics as a result, technology Reliability higher, objectivity is strong, wide coverage, product system
Make that generated time is short, and universality is strong, in addition, comparing the forecasting procedure based on experience, technology tool is preferable portable.
In further specific embodiment, in step S2, when to the characterization physical quantity piece-wise linearization, according to described
Threshold values be divided into it is weak, weak to it is medium, medium, in wait until strong, strong Pyatyi, and use 1,2,3,4,5 to characterize corresponding grade points respectively.
First each characterization physical quantity is grouped in the step, then every group of characterization physical quantity is classified, passes through piecewise linearity
Change is handled, according to specific threshold value, by actual environment condition that each physical quantity is characterized it is strong, in, it is weak show, and not
Change with the variation in season.
After being classified according to the symbolical meanings of physical quantity, its indicative significance is analyzed, in the mistake of physical quantity classification
Default same kind of physical quantity has equivalent important role in the environmental characteristic of characterization convection weather in journey, because
This, for the physical quantity after selecting, acquiescence gives each group physical quantity equivalent weight.
In further embodiment, in step S4, the grade of each physical quantity of certain convection weather phenomenon will be met
Value is added, and obtained value is bigger, and the probability for corresponding convection weather phenomenon occur is bigger.
The grade point of each physical quantity is added, and obtained value can be scaled the probability for the weather phenomenon occur, with probability
Mode shows the forecast result of certain weather phenomenon.
In above-mentioned each specific embodiment, the characterization physical quantity related with heavy showers in short-term includes：Whole atmosphere
Precipitable water, relative humidity, the most instable significant level lifting index, K indexes, bottom divergence.
In above-mentioned each specific embodiment, the characterization physical quantity related with hail includes：Whole atmosphere precipitable water
Amount, the most instable significant level lifting index, low layer divergence, 0-6km vertical wind shears, 0 degree of layer height, convective available potential energy.
In above-mentioned each specific embodiment, the characterization physical quantity related with thunder and lightning includes：The most instable significant level is lifted
Index, convective available potential energy, low layer divergence, whole atmosphere relative humidity.
By taking short-time strong rainfall as an example, the short-time strong rainfall Identify Environment based on box traction substation used 9 years fact and
Physical quantity data analyzes multiple amounts that can be used for characterizing ambient air steam, heating power and dynamic condition, including flood is big
Gas precipitable water, relative humidity, than wet, optimal lifting index, K indexes, combined index, maximum convective available potential energy, low layer divergence,
Vertical wind shear, high low layer temperature difference equivalent, the results show that in the physical quantity of characterization steam, the characterization of atmospheric precipitable water
Meaning is the most notable, in the physical quantity for characterizing environment thermodynamic features, most has lifting index and K indexes suitable, but be superior to other
Physical quantity, in the physical quantity for characterizing dynamic condition, the divergence of 850-hPa has preferable indicative significance, nevertheless, vertically-supplying air
Indicative significance and bad, maximum convective available potential energy indicative significance to short-time strong rainfall of the shear conditions for short-time strong rainfall
Also general.It has also been found that, also need to meet some primary conditions, such as 850-hPa temperature when short-time strong rainfall occurs, relatively simultaneously
Humidity also has certain meaning.
For these physical quantitys, atmospheric precipitable water theoretically determines moment issuable surface precipitation most
Big value.Optimal lifting index and K indexes are used equally for the environment instability condition of characterization China central and east short-time strong rainfall.Work as wind
After sudden and violent formation, stronger instability condition often implies stronger ascending motion, and stronger ascending motion is high intensity
The necessary condition of short-time strong rainfall.Relative humidity characterizes the degree of saturation of air, and the precipitation more than 3/4ths appears in relatively
In environment of the humidity more than 80%.The air being saturated from ground to high-altitude is more conducive to the formation of precipitation, especially strong in short-term to drop
Water.Although multiple processes under various scales can cause the lifting of air parcel, a wide range of high intensity short-time strong rainfall is generated
The available 850-hPa divergences characterization of large scale lifting condition of storm.
Cover in forecast result generate short-time strong rainfall environmental condition physical mechanism in terms of understanding rather than pure mathematics system
Meter.
It is understood that the principle that embodiment of above is intended to be merely illustrative of the present and the exemplary implementation that uses
Mode, however the present invention is not limited thereto.For those skilled in the art, in the essence for not departing from the present invention
In the case of refreshing and essence, various changes and modifications can be made therein, these variations and modifications are also considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of prediction technique of convection weather, which is characterized in that include the following steps：
S1, according to convection weather for many years is live and physical data obtains multiple characterization physical quantitys and each characterization physical quantity
Threshold values；
S2 is grouped according to the symbolical meanings of the characterization physical quantity；By the characterization physical quantity after grouping according to
Threshold values piecewise linearity is divided into Pyatyi；
S3, convection weather phenomenon is related with multiple characterization physical quantitys, determines institute related with each convection weather phenomenon respectively
State characterization physical quantity；
Each physical quantity of real data is compared with the threshold values of each characterization physical quantity, if meet by S4 respectively
The threshold values of all characterization physical quantitys of certain convection weather phenomenon：It is that then prediction the weather phenomenon will occur；It is no, then it predicts not
It will appear the weather phenomenon.
2. the prediction technique of convection weather as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that in step S2, to the characterization physics
When measuring piece-wise linearization, according to the threshold values be divided into it is weak, weak to it is medium, medium, in wait until strong, strong Pyatyi, and respectively with 1,2,
3,4, the 5 corresponding grade point of characterization.
3. the prediction technique of convection weather as claimed in claim 2, which is characterized in that in step S4, certain convection current will be met
The grade point of each physical quantity of weather phenomenon is added, and obtained value is bigger, and the probability for corresponding convection weather phenomenon occur is bigger.
4. the prediction technique of convection weather as described in claims 1 to 3, which is characterized in that institute related with heavy showers in short-term
Stating characterization physical quantity includes：Atmospheric precipitable water, relative humidity, the most instable significant level lifting index, K indexes, low layer divergence.
5. the prediction technique of convection weather as described in claims 1 to 3, which is characterized in that the characterization related with hail
Physical quantity includes：Atmospheric precipitable water, the most instable significant level lifting index, low layer divergence, 0-6km vertical wind shears, 0 degree of layer
Highly, convective available potential energy.
6. the prediction technique of convection weather as described in claims 1 to 3, which is characterized in that the characterization related with thunder and lightning
Physical quantity includes：The most instable significant level is lifted index, convective available potential energy, low layer divergence, whole atmosphere relative humidity.
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| CN110515140A (en) * | 2019-07-20 | 2019-11-29 | 安徽省艺凌模型设计有限公司 | A kind of Design of Mathematical Model method of hail prediction |
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Cited By (4)
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| CN109300174A (en) * | 2018-11-27 | 2019-02-01 | 杨波 | A kind of Severe Convective Weather Forecasting analysis system |
| CN110515140A (en) * | 2019-07-20 | 2019-11-29 | 安徽省艺凌模型设计有限公司 | A kind of Design of Mathematical Model method of hail prediction |
| CN114384610A (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2022-04-22 | 中国人民解放军94201部队 | Hail short-term landing area forecasting method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN114384610B (en) * | 2021-12-28 | 2024-02-20 | 中国人民解放军94201部队 | Hail short-term fall prediction method, hail short-term fall prediction device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
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