CN108446924A - A kind of predictor method and system of maintenance of surface expense - Google Patents
A kind of predictor method and system of maintenance of surface expense Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention discloses a kind of predictor method and system of maintenance of surface expense.This method includes：Maintenance plan of every a road section in the target prediction time of road network to be measured is determined using decision-tree model；For every a road section, the maintenance plan of minimum maintenance of surface expense is selected, obtains the alternative set of the maintenance plan of road network to be measured；Obtain the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured；If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is less than the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured, maintenance plan in the alternative set of update, until the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is not less than the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured；If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured not less than the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured, determines that the summation of the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in alternative set is the discreet value of maintenance of surface expense.The present invention makes that Pavement Performance is up to standard and expense is few.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the predictor methods and system of technical field of roadway maintenance more particularly to a kind of maintenance of surface expense.
Background technology
In road maintenance management, the maintenance of surface expense that policymaker's demand understands road network in certain time limit regularly needs
The investing method and time of condition of pleading and expense.Road network conserves demand and investment budgey analysis is obtained generally according to experience, to
So that Pavement Performance is reached required standard so that the existing predictor method for maintenance of surface expense can not be taken into account and economically may be used
Row.
Invention content
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of predictor method and system of maintenance of surface expense, to solve the road surface of the prior art
The predictor method of maintenance costs, which can not be taken into account, makes Pavement Performance reach required standard and viable economically problem.
In a first aspect, a kind of predictor method of maintenance of surface expense is provided, including：According to decision factor and index is conserved,
Maintenance plan of every a road section in the target prediction time of road network to be measured is determined using decision-tree model；For each road
Section, from the determining maintenance plan, selects the maintenance plan of minimum maintenance of surface expense, obtains the road network to be measured
The maintenance plan alternative set；The alternative set used in the target prediction time based on each section
In the corresponding maintenance plan, obtain the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；Compare described to be measured
The size of the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network and the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；
If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured is less than the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured
Desired value then updates the maintenance plan in the alternative set, until the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured
Average value not less than the road network to be measured Pavement Performance overall target desired value；If the Pavement Performance of the road network to be measured
Desired value of the average value of overall target not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured, it is determined that the alternative collection
The summation of the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in conjunction is the discreet value of the maintenance of surface expense of the road network to be measured.
Second aspect provides a kind of Prediction System of maintenance of surface expense, including：First determining module is determined for basis
Plan factor and maintenance index, determine every a road section of road network to be measured in the maintenance side of target prediction time using decision-tree model
Case；Selecting module, for selecting minimum maintenance of surface expense from the determining maintenance plan for each section
The maintenance plan, obtain the alternative set of the maintenance plan of the road network to be measured；Acquisition module, for based on each
The section corresponding maintenance plan in the alternative set that the target prediction time uses obtains described to be measured
The average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network；Comparison module, the Pavement Performance synthesis for the road network to be measured refer to
The size of target average value and the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；Update module, if for described
The average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is less than the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured,
The maintenance plan in the alternative set is then updated, until the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured
Not less than the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；Second determining module, if being used for the road network to be measured
Pavement Performance overall target average value not less than the road network to be measured Pavement Performance overall target desired value, it is determined that
The summation of the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in the alternative set is the maintenance of surface expense of the road network to be measured
Discreet value.
In this way, the embodiment of the present invention, can not only make Pavement Performance reach required standard, and can also use less road
Face maintenance costs realizes feasibility economically.
Description of the drawings
In order to illustrate the technical solution of the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, below by institute in the description to the embodiment of the present invention
Attached drawing to be used is needed to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, the accompanying drawings in the following description is only some implementations of the present invention
Example, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, can also be according to these attached drawings
Obtain other attached drawings.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the predictor method of the maintenance of surface expense of the embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is that certain a road section of the embodiment of the present invention determines the schematic diagram one of maintenance plan using decision-tree model；
Fig. 3 is that certain a road section of the embodiment of the present invention determines the schematic diagram two of maintenance plan using decision-tree model；
Fig. 4 is that certain a road section of the embodiment of the present invention determines the schematic diagram three of maintenance plan using decision-tree model；
Fig. 5 is the maintenance plan in the alternative set of update of the predictor method of the maintenance of surface expense of the embodiment of the present invention
The flow chart of step；
Fig. 6 is the structure diagram of the Prediction System of the maintenance of surface expense of the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific implementation mode
Following will be combined with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and technical solution in the embodiment of the present invention carries out clear, complete
Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiments are some of the embodiments of the present invention, instead of all the embodiments.Based on this hair
Embodiment in bright, those of ordinary skill in the art's acquired every other implementation without creative efforts
Example, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of predictor methods of maintenance of surface expense.As shown in Figure 1, this method includes as follows
The step of：
Step S101：According to decision factor and maintenance index, every a road section of road network to be measured is determined using decision-tree model
In the maintenance plan of target prediction time.
Preferably, decision factor includes：Category of roads and the volume of traffic.Conserving index includes：Pavement condition index and comfortable
Sex index.It should be understood that the decision factor of the embodiment of the present invention and maintenance index are not limited thereto, other are can also be
Type.
Index and decision factor are conserved as which rank of node in decision-tree model, can be set according to actual conditions.One
As, it sets decision factor to forward node, rests finger shield mark and be set as node rearward.
Preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Fig. 2, the first order node in decision-tree model is category of roads.Example
Such as, category of roads can be divided into two grades.One grade is high speed, Class I highway.Another grade be two, three, Class IV highway.
Preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Fig. 2, the second level node in decision-tree model is the volume of traffic.Example
Such as, the volume of traffic can be divided into three grades, respectively：Light traffic, middle traffic and heavy traffic.For example, the volume of traffic is light less than 870
Traffic, the volume of traffic 870~2500 are middle traffic, and the volume of traffic is heavy traffic not less than 2500.
For a variety of maintenance indexs, row of each maintenance index as the not brother of node can be determined according to actual conditions
Sequence.In addition, the grade that each maintenance index divides can also be determines according to actual conditions.
Preferably, in the embodiment of the present invention, third level node and fourth stage node in decision-tree model are maintenance index
Any one in (pavement condition index and comfortable sex index), and third level node and the corresponding maintenance index of fourth stage node
It is different.
For example, as shown in Fig. 2, third level node is pavement condition index.Fourth stage node is comfortable sex index.
The range of the initial value of pavement condition index to desired value can be divided at least two first intervals.Every 1 first
Section corresponds to the grade of first maintenance criteria.Wherein, the desired value of pavement condition index can be default according to actual conditions.Road
The desired value that the initial value of face status score is generally pavement condition index subtracts the first predetermined threshold value.For example, pavement behavior refers to
Several desired values is 90, and the first predetermined threshold value is 10, then the initial value of pavement condition index is 80.It is 4 division roads according to step-length
The initial value of face status score can be divided into out three first intervals to the range of desired value, and respectively 80~83,84~87 Hes
88~90.The grade of three first maintenance criterias of three first interval difference corresponding grades from low to high.It should be understood that
It is that the step-length of each first interval can also be different, can be specifically set according to actual conditions.
The range of initial value to the desired value of comfortable sex index can be divided at least two second intervals.Every 1 second area
Between corresponding second maintenance criteria grade.Likewise, the desired value of comfortable sex index can be default according to actual conditions.Comfortably
The desired value that the initial value of sex index is generally comfortable sex index subtracts the second predetermined threshold value.For example, the expectation of comfortable sex index
Value is 90, and the second predetermined threshold value is 10, then the initial value of comfortable sex index is 80.It is the 4 comfortable sex index of division according to step-length
Initial value can be divided into out three second intervals to the range of desired value, and respectively 80~83,84~87 and 88~90.This three
The grade of three the second maintenance criterias of a second interval difference corresponding grade from low to high.It should be understood that each second
The step-length in section can also be different, and can specifically be set according to actual conditions.
The target prediction time is generally as unit of year.In general, method through the embodiment of the present invention, the target prediction
Time is generally 1~10 year.
Using decision-tree model, it can be achieved that synthesis comprehensively covers each road conditions index difference decay rate and other factors shadow
Loud various possible combined situations so that determining maintenance plan is more rationally reliable.
Specifically, maintenance plan may include：Crack sealing, sealing, shallow-layer repairing, deep layer repairing etc..
Step S102：For every a road section, from determining maintenance plan, the maintenance side of minimum maintenance of surface expense is selected
Case obtains the alternative set of the maintenance plan of road network to be measured.
For any section, the maintenance plan in the section obtained by decision-tree model may have multiple.It is multiple when having
When, the maintenance plan of minimum maintenance of surface expense is selected, so that the maintenance of surface expense of entire road network to be measured estimated
With minimum.It should be understood that when only there are one when maintenance plan, which is the minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section
Maintenance plan.
Step S103：Based on every a road section the target prediction time use it is alternative set in corresponding maintenance plan, obtain
Take the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.
UsingMaintenance plan and target prediction time corresponding road network to be measured is calculated
The average value of Pavement Performance overall target.
Wherein, PQIavrIndicate the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.I=1,2 ... ..., N.N is indicated
The sum in the section of road network to be measured.
TPQI,iIndicate the Pavement Performance synthesis in i-th section of section of maintenance plan and target prediction time corresponding road network to be measured
Refer to target value.
Specifically, the Pavement Performance overall target can select different types of Pavement Performance individual event to refer to according to actual conditions
Mark obtains.For example, in the embodiment of the present invention, the Pavement Performance single index that selects for：Pavement condition index, comfortable sex index and
Rutting depth index.
Specifically, TPQI,i=TPCI,i×wPCI+TRQI,i×wRQI+TRDI,i×wRDI。
Wherein, TPCI,iIndicate the value of the pavement condition index in i-th section of section, TRQI,iIndicate that the comfort in i-th section of section refers to
Several values, TRDI,iIndicate the value of the rutting depth index in i-th section of section, wPCIIndicate the power of the pavement condition index in i-th section of section
Weight, wRQIIndicate the weight of the comfortable sex index in i-th section of section, wRDIIndicate the weight of the rutting depth index in i-th section of section.On
The weight stated can be set according to actual conditions.
The value of above-mentioned each Pavement Performance single index can obtain determining support by pavement performance prediction model prediction
The value of each Pavement Performance single index in shield scheme and target prediction time corresponding each section.The pavement performance prediction model
The pavement performance prediction model of the prior art may be used.The pavement performance prediction model is generally corresponding to determining maintenance side
The Performance Decay curvilinear equation of case and former pavement structure.Different maintenance plans Performance Decay curve corresponding with former pavement structure
Equation generally can rule of thumb be preset.
For example, the Performance Decay curvilinear equation can be inverse S-curve equation, negative exponential curve equation, linear equation etc..
The general expression of inverse sigmoid curve equation is：
Ix=Ix°/(1+α×eβ×i)。
Wherein, IxFor the value of Pavement Performance single index to be predicted, Ix° be Pavement Performance single index initial value.i
For year.It should be understood that the value in the year that i is referred to refers to the sequence in year to be predicted.For example, to predict to arrive for 2018
Pavement performance index in 2028, then when using equation calculation analog value in 2018, the value of annual i is 1；Using equation meter
When calculating analog value in 2019, the value of annual i is 2；And so on, the analog value in each year to be predicted is calculated.α and β
For predetermined coefficient.The predetermined coefficient is obtained generally by a large amount of historical data and experience.The predetermined coefficient is according to road surface property
The difference of the type of energy single index, can be different.
The general expression of negative exponential curve equation is：
Ix=Ix°×λε×i。
Wherein, Ix、Ix° and i meaning it is identical as the meaning in inverse sigmoid curve equation, details are not described herein.λ and ε is pre-
If coefficient, and λ ＞ 0, ε ＜ 1.Likewise, the predetermined coefficient is obtained generally by a large amount of historical data and experience.This is default
Coefficient, can be different according to the difference of the type of Pavement Performance single index.
The general expression of linear equation is：
Ix=θ+ω × i.
Wherein, IxIdentical as the meaning in inverse sigmoid curve equation with the meaning of i, details are not described herein.θ and ω is default
Coefficient.Likewise, the predetermined coefficient is obtained generally by a large amount of historical data and experience.The predetermined coefficient is according to road surface property
The difference of the type of energy single index, can be different.
Step S104：The Pavement Performance of the average value and road network to be measured of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network more to be measured is comprehensive
Close the size of the desired value of index.
The desired value of Pavement Performance overall target can also pass through the phase of the different types of Pavement Performance single index of calculating
The weighted sum of prestige value obtains.
Specifically, RPQI=RPCI×wPCI+RRQI×wRQI+RRDI×wRDI。
Wherein, RPQIIndicate the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured, RPCIIndicate the road surface of road network to be measured
The desired value of status score, RRQIIndicate the desired value of the comfortable sex index of road network to be measured, RRDIIndicate that the track of road network to be measured is deep
Spend the desired value of index.
Step S105：If the Pavement Performance that the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is less than road network to be measured is comprehensive
Close the desired value of index, then the maintenance plan in the alternative set of update, until road network to be measured Pavement Performance overall target it is flat
Desired value of the mean value not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.
If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured
Desired value then shows to conserve each corresponding section of road network to be measured using the maintenance plan in alternative set, Wu Fada
To expected requirement, therefore, it is necessary to adjust maintenance plan, so that each section in road network to be measured passes through corresponding maintenance side
After case maintenance, in the target prediction time, the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured is not less than the road network to be measured
Pavement Performance overall target desired value, to meet requirement.
Specifically, as shown in figure 5, step S105 can be realized by following process：
Step S1051：If the value of the Pavement Performance overall target in section is less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured
Desired value, then improve the corresponding maintenance criteria of maintenance index in the section.
Due to there are multiple sections in road network to be measured, waited for although the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is less than
The desired value for surveying the Pavement Performance overall target of road network, does not necessarily mean that the maintenance plan in all sections of road network to be measured all
The Pavement Performance overall target in the corresponding section can not be made to meet the requirements.Therefore it may only be necessary to by Pavement Performance overall target
Value is improved less than the maintenance criteria in the section of the desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured, so that these sections can adopt
With more effective maintenance plan.
Step S1052：Obtain the maintenance plan for the corresponding minimum maintenance of surface expense in section for improving maintenance criteria.
Likewise, identical as the purpose of step S102, in order to make the road network to be measured maintenance of surface expense discreet value most
It is few, the maintenance plan of the corresponding minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section need to be obtained.
Step S1053：By the maintenance plan for improving maintenance criteria and minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section of acquisition, replace
The maintenance plan for changing the corresponding section in alternative set, obtains newer alternative set.
Preferably, in the step of updating the maintenance plan in alternative set every time, by step S1051, by a kind of maintenance
The grade of the corresponding maintenance criteria of index improves a grade.
It is furthermore preferred that in the step of adjacent maintenance plan updated twice in alternative set, alternating updates different maintenances
The grade of the corresponding maintenance criteria of index.
For example, this was updated in the step of maintenance plan in alternative set, for needing the section of raising maintenance criteria,
The grade of the corresponding maintenance criteria of the corresponding maintenance index of fourth stage node is improved into a grade；Alternative collection is then updated next time
In the step of maintenance plan in conjunction, for needing to improve the section of maintenance criteria, by the corresponding maintenance index of third level node
The grade of corresponding maintenance criteria improves a grade.
It is furthermore preferred that in the step of updating the maintenance plan in alternative set for the first time, by the corresponding maintenance of fourth stage node
The grade of the corresponding maintenance criteria of index improves a grade.
For example, third level node is pavement condition index.Fourth stage node is comfortable sex index.When supporting in alternative set
The average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for the road network to be measured that shield scheme limits is less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured
Desired value when, for some specific road section, the value of the Pavement Performance overall target in the section is less than the road surface of road network to be measured
The desired value of composite of performance index then improves the corresponding maintenance mark of comfort index that the decision-tree model in the section determines first
An accurate grade.For example, as shown in Figure 2, the corresponding maintenance criteria of the current comfort index in the section is the second grade, then carries
Height arrives the first estate, obtains the corresponding maintenance plan B of decision-tree model as shown in Figure 3.If the corresponding maintenance of comfort index
After standard is increased to the first estate, the corresponding maintenance plan B of decision-tree model as shown in Figure 3 (is supported due to only corresponding to one
Shield scheme, therefore maintenance of surface expense is as minimum), replace the maintenance plan that the section is corresponded in alternative set.If after update,
The average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for the road network to be measured that maintenance plan in alternative set limits is still less than road network to be measured
Pavement Performance overall target desired value, and the value of the Pavement Performance overall target in the section is still less than road network to be measured
Pavement Performance overall target desired value, then improve the section decision-tree model determine pavement condition index it is corresponding support
One grade of shield standard.For example, as shown in Fig. 2, the corresponding maintenance criteria of section current road status score is second etc.
Grade, then be increased to the first estate.Therefore, as shown in figure 4, the decision-tree model selection maintenance plan D in the section.
Step S106：If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is not less than the Pavement Performance of road network to be measured
The desired value of overall target, it is determined that the summation of the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in alternative set is road network to be measured
Maintenance of surface expense discreet value.
If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured is not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured
Desired value, then under the maintenance for showing the maintenance plan in alternative set, in the target prediction time, every a road section of the road network
It is satisfied by expected requirement, it is therefore possible to use the maintenance plan in the alternative set is conserved.
For each maintenance plan since the mode of maintenance is different, the maintenance of surface expense for conserving the section of per unit is different
's.For example, as unit of kilometer, the corresponding every kilometer of maintenance of surface expense of different maintenance plans can be obtained.According to the maintenance
The milimeter number in the corresponding section of scheme, can obtain the maintenance of surface expense in the section.Road surface per a road section in road network is supported
Shield expense sums it up, and obtains the discreet value of the maintenance of surface expense of road network to be measured.
To sum up, the predictor method of the maintenance of surface expense of the embodiment of the present invention can not only make Pavement Performance reach required
Standard, and less maintenance of surface expense can also be used, realize feasibility economically.
The embodiment of the invention also discloses a kind of Prediction Systems of maintenance of surface expense.As shown in fig. 6, the system includes：
First determining module 601, for according to decision factor and maintenance index, road network to be measured to be determined using decision-tree model
Every a road section the target prediction time maintenance plan.
Wherein, decision factor includes：Category of roads and the volume of traffic.First order node in decision-tree model is road etc.
Grade, the second level node in decision-tree model is the volume of traffic.
Conserving index includes：Pavement condition index and comfortable sex index.Third level node and the 4th in decision-tree model
Grade node is any one conserved in index, and corresponding maintenance index is different with fourth stage node for third level node.
The range of the initial value of pavement condition index to desired value is divided at least two first intervals, each first interval
The grade of corresponding first maintenance criteria.
The range of initial value to the desired value of comfortable sex index is divided at least two second intervals, each second interval pair
Answer the grade of second maintenance criteria.
Selecting module 602, for for every a road section, from determining maintenance plan, selecting minimum maintenance of surface expense
Maintenance plan, obtain the alternative set of the maintenance plan of road network to be measured.
Acquisition module 603, for based on the corresponding maintenance in the alternative set that the target prediction time uses of every a road section
Scheme obtains the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.
Wherein, it usesMaintenance plan and target prediction time corresponding road to be measured is calculated
The average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of net.
Wherein, PQIavrIndicate the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.I=1,2 ... ..., N.N is indicated
The sum in the section of road network to be measured.TPQI,iIndicate i-th section of section of maintenance plan and target prediction time corresponding road network to be measured
Pavement Performance overall target value.
Wherein, TPQI,i=TPCI,i×wPCI+TRQI,i×wRQI+TRDI,i×wRDI；TPCI,iIndicate the road surface shape in i-th section of section
The value of condition index, TRQI,iIndicate the value of the comfortable sex index in i-th section of section, TRDI,iIndicate the rutting depth index in i-th section of section
Value, wPCIIndicate the weight of the pavement condition index in i-th section of section, wRQIIndicate the weight of the comfortable sex index in i-th section of section,
wRDIIndicate the weight of the rutting depth index in i-th section of section.
Comparison module 604, the road of the average value and road network to be measured of the Pavement Performance overall target for road network more to be measured
The size of the desired value of face composite of performance index.
Update module 605, if the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for road network to be measured is less than the road of road network to be measured
The desired value of face composite of performance index, the then maintenance plan during update is alternatively gathered, until the Pavement Performance of road network to be measured integrates
Desired value of the average value of index not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of road network to be measured.
Preferably, update module 605 includes：
Submodule is improved, if the Pavement Performance that the value of the Pavement Performance overall target for section is less than road network to be measured integrates
The desired value of index then improves the corresponding maintenance criteria of maintenance index in the section.
It is furthermore preferred that raising submodule includes：
Unit is improved, in the step of updating the maintenance plan in alternative set every time, a kind of maintenance index to be corresponded to
Maintenance criteria grade improve a grade.
Wherein, in the step of adjacent maintenance plan updated twice in alternative set, alternating updates different maintenance indexs
The grade of corresponding maintenance criteria.
Preferably, in the step of updating the maintenance plan in alternative set for the first time, the corresponding maintenance of fourth stage node is referred to
The grade for marking corresponding maintenance criteria improves a grade.
Acquisition submodule, the maintenance side for obtaining the corresponding minimum maintenance of surface expense in section for improving maintenance criteria
Case.
Submodule is replaced, the maintenance side for improving maintenance criteria and minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section for that will obtain
Case replaces the maintenance plan in the corresponding section in alternative set, obtains newer alternative set.
Second determining module 606, if the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for road network to be measured is not less than road to be measured
The desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of net, it is determined that alternatively the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in set is total
With the discreet value of the maintenance of surface expense for road network to be measured.
For device embodiments, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, so fairly simple, the correlation of description
Place illustrates referring to the part of embodiment of the method.
To sum up, the Prediction System of the maintenance of surface expense of the embodiment of the present invention can not only make Pavement Performance reach required
Standard, and less maintenance of surface expense can also be used, realize feasibility economically.
Those of ordinary skill in the art may realize that the embodiment in conjunction with disclosed in the embodiment of the present invention describes each
Exemplary unit and algorithm steps can be realized with the combination of electronic hardware or computer software and electronic hardware.These
Function is implemented in hardware or software actually, depends on the specific application and design constraint of technical solution.Profession
Technical staff can use different methods to achieve the described function each specific application, but this realization is not answered
Think beyond the scope of this invention.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and unit, can refer to corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiment, and details are not described herein.
In embodiment provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed device and method can pass through others
Mode is realized.For example, the apparatus embodiments described above are merely exemplary, for example, the division of the unit, only
A kind of division of logic function, formula that in actual implementation, there may be another division manner, such as multiple units or component can combine or
Person is desirably integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored or not executed.Another point, shown or discussed is mutual
Between coupling, direct-coupling or communication connection can be INDIRECT COUPLING or communication link by some interfaces, device or unit
It connects, can be electrical, machinery or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component may or may not be physically separated, aobvious as unit
The component shown may or may not be physical unit, you can be located at a place, or may be distributed over multiple
In network element.Some or all of unit therein can be selected according to the actual needs to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme
's.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, it can also
It is that each unit physically exists alone, it can also be during two or more units be integrated in one unit.
It, can be with if the function is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and when sold or used as an independent product
It is stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Based on this understanding, technical scheme of the present invention is substantially in other words
The part of the part that contributes to existing technology or the technical solution can be expressed in the form of software products, the meter
Calculation machine software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are used so that a computer equipment (can be
People's computer, server or network equipment etc.) it performs all or part of the steps of the method described in the various embodiments of the present invention.
And storage medium above-mentioned includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, ROM, RAM, magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can to store program code
Medium.
The above description is merely a specific embodiment, but scope of protection of the present invention is not limited thereto, any
Those familiar with the art in the technical scope disclosed by the present invention, can easily think of the change or the replacement, and should all contain
Lid is within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be subject to the protection scope in claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of predictor method of maintenance of surface expense, which is characterized in that including：
According to decision factor and maintenance index, determine every a road section of road network to be measured in the target prediction time using decision-tree model
Maintenance plan；
For each section, from the determining maintenance plan, the maintenance side of minimum maintenance of surface expense is selected
Case obtains the alternative set of the maintenance plan of the road network to be measured；
Based on each section in the alternative set that the target prediction time uses the corresponding maintenance plan,
Obtain the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；
The Pavement Performance synthesis of the average value and the road network to be measured that compare the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured refers to
The size of target desired value；
If the Pavement Performance synthesis that the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured is less than the road network to be measured refers to
Target desired value then updates the maintenance plan in the alternative set, until the Pavement Performance of the road network to be measured integrates
Desired value of the average value of index not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；
If the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured is integrated not less than the Pavement Performance of the road network to be measured
The desired value of index, it is determined that the summation of the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in the alternative set is described to be measured
The discreet value of the maintenance of surface expense of road network.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the decision factor includes：Category of roads and the volume of traffic；Institute
It is the category of roads to state the first order node in decision-tree model, and the second level node in the decision-tree model is the friendship
Flux.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that, the maintenance index includes：Pavement condition index and comfortable
Sex index；Third level node and fourth stage node in the decision-tree model are any one in the maintenance index, and
The corresponding maintenance index of the third level node and the fourth stage node is different.
4. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that, the maintenance plan updated in the alternative set
The step of, including：
If the Pavement Performance synthesis that the value of the Pavement Performance overall target in the section is less than the road network to be measured refers to
Target desired value then improves the corresponding maintenance criteria of the maintenance index in the section；
Obtain the maintenance plan for the corresponding minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section for improving the maintenance criteria；
By the maintenance plan for improving the maintenance criteria and minimum maintenance of surface expense in the section of acquisition, institute is replaced
The maintenance plan for stating the corresponding section in alternative set, obtains the newer alternative set.
5. according to the method described in claim 4, it is characterized in that, the maintenance index for improving the section is corresponding
The step of maintenance criteria, including：
It is every time in the step of maintenance plan updated in the alternative set, a kind of maintenance index is corresponding
The grade of the maintenance criteria improves a grade.
6. according to the method described in claim 5, it is characterized in that：It is described in the adjacent update alternative set described twice
In the step of maintenance plan, alternating updates the grade of the different corresponding maintenance criterias of the maintenance index.
7. according to the method described in claim 6, it is characterized in that：The maintenance in the update alternative set for the first time
In the step of scheme, the corresponding grade for conserving the corresponding maintenance criteria of index of the fourth stage node is improved one
A grade.
8. according to the method described in claim 3, it is characterized in that：
The range of the initial value of the pavement condition index to desired value is divided at least two first intervals, and each described first
Section corresponds to the grade of first maintenance criteria；
The range of initial value to the desired value of the comfortable sex index is divided at least two second intervals, each secondth area
Between corresponding second maintenance criteria grade.
9. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterized in that：
UsingThe maintenance plan is calculated and the target prediction time corresponding described waits for
Survey the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of road network；
Wherein, PQIavrIndicate that the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured, i=1,2 ... ..., N, N indicate
The sum in the section of the road network to be measured；TPQI,iIndicate that the maintenance plan and the target prediction time are corresponding described
The value of the Pavement Performance overall target in i-th section of section of road network to be measured；
Wherein, TPQI,i=TPCI,i×wPCI+TRQI,i×wRQI+TRDI,i×wRDI；TPCI,iIndicate the pavement behavior in i-th section of section
The value of index, TRQI,iIndicate the value of the comfortable sex index in i-th section of section, TRDI,iIndicate that the track in i-th section of section is deep
Spend the value of index, wPCIIndicate the weight of the pavement condition index in i-th section of section, wRQIIt relaxes in i-th section of section of expression
The weight of adaptive index, wRDIIndicate the weight of the rutting depth index in i-th section of section.
10. a kind of Prediction System of maintenance of surface expense, which is characterized in that including：
First determining module, for according to decision factor and maintenance index, each of road network to be measured to be determined using decision-tree model
Maintenance plan of the section in the target prediction time；
Selecting module, for selecting minimum maintenance of surface expense from the determining maintenance plan for each section
The maintenance plan, obtain the alternative set of the maintenance plan of the road network to be measured；
Acquisition module, for corresponding in the alternative set that the target prediction time uses based on each section
The maintenance plan obtains the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；
Comparison module, the road of the average value and the road network to be measured of the Pavement Performance overall target for the road network to be measured
The size of the desired value of face composite of performance index；
Update module, if the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for the road network to be measured is less than the road of the road network to be measured
The desired value of face composite of performance index then updates the maintenance plan in the alternative set, until the road network to be measured
Desired value of the average value of Pavement Performance overall target not less than the Pavement Performance overall target of the road network to be measured；
Second determining module, if the average value of the Pavement Performance overall target for the road network to be measured is not less than the road to be measured
The desired value of the Pavement Performance overall target of net, it is determined that the corresponding maintenance of surface expense of maintenance plan in the alternative set
Summation be the road network to be measured maintenance of surface expense discreet value.
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