CN108363882B - Mountain area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method based on power downscaling mode - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a dynamic downscaling mode-based mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method, which comprises the following steps of: determining the resolution and the simulation region range according to the performance and precision requirements of a computer, locally analyzing the dynamic downscaling WRF mode parameters, and obtaining a wind speed simulation result of the engineering region for at least one year through dynamic downscaling; interpolating the wind speed simulation result to engineering positions representing different topographic features of the power transmission line in the mountain section to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence; selecting a reference meteorological station, counting to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence in the same time period with the power downscaling, carrying out correlation analysis on the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained with the power downscaling, and fitting to obtain a correlation relationship between the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence and the power downscaling; and carrying out frequency analysis and calculation on the annual maximum wind speed of the reference meteorological station to obtain the design wind speed of the transmission line at the corresponding design recurrence period, and calculating the design wind speed of the engineering point according to the correlation relation. The invention effectively improves the accuracy and reliability of the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line in the mountainous area under the condition of meeting the project progress and cost.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a dynamic downscaling mode-based mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method, and belongs to the technical field of electric power engineering design wind speed and wind pressure calculation.
Background
The value of the designed wind speed of the power transmission line engineering influences the safety, the economy and the applicability of the power transmission line engineering, and the reasonable value is very important. According to the technical code of electric power engineering meteorological surveying (DL/T5158-2012), when meteorological stations near the engineering have annual maximum wind speed data for more than 25 continuous years, frequency calculation can be directly carried out to calculate the designed wind speed. However, ground weather stations are more distributed in economically developed areas and cities, and are less distributed in remote mountainous areas. At present, a common method for designing wind speed in mountainous areas in the power industry is to multiply a wind pressure value corresponding to the designed wind speed of a reference meteorological station by a mountainous area wind pressure adjusting coefficient (the adjusting coefficient of an occlusion terrain such as an inter-mountain basin and a valley is 0.75-0.85, and the adjusting coefficient of a wind port consistent with a strong wind direction is 1.20-1.50), and then to obtain the designed wind speed through inverse calculation, namely the maximum adjusting coefficient of the wind speed is 1.095-1.225. The method has strong subjectivity, and different values of different designers are different, thereby bringing much inconvenience to design.
According to a power engineering hydrological meteorological calculation manual (Hubei scientific and technical Press, 2010), the most reliable method for designing the wind speed in the mountainous area is to directly set a temporary observation station on a construction site, compare the temporary observation station with the wind speed of an adjacent meteorological station and observe the temporary observation station to determine a relatively accurate conversion coefficient. However, the power transmission lines in the mountainous area are linear engineering, the terrain is complex and changeable, one line engineering needs to be provided with a plurality of temporary observation stations to meet the design requirements, the cost is high, long temporary observation time is needed, and the requirements of engineering progress and cost control cannot be met.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method based on a power downscaling mode, which effectively improves the precision and reliability of the mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed value under the condition of meeting the engineering progress and the cost.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
the invention discloses a dynamic downscaling mode-based mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method, which comprises the following steps of:
step (1): determining the resolution and the range of a simulation area according to the performance and precision requirements of a computer, carrying out local analysis on the micro-physics and land surface processes of a dynamic downscaling WRF mode and the mode parameters of a planet boundary layer, and carrying out dynamic downscaling to obtain a wind speed simulation result of the engineering area for at least one year; interpolating the wind speed simulation result to a typical iron tower position, wherein the typical iron tower position represents a project position with different topographic characteristics of the power transmission line in a mountain section, and taking the maximum value of the daily interpolation result of the wind speed of the project position to obtain a daily maximum wind speed sequence;
step (2): selecting a participating meteorological station which is closest to the power transmission line in the mountain area and has complete data, counting to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence in the same time period with the power downscaling, carrying out correlation analysis on the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by the power downscaling, and fitting to obtain a correlation relationship between the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence and the power downscaling;
and (3): and (3) carrying out frequency analysis calculation on the annual maximum wind speed of the participating meteorological stations in the step (2) to obtain the design wind speed of the power transmission line at the corresponding design recurrence period, and substituting the design wind speed of the participating meteorological stations into the correlation formula according to the correlation between the maximum wind speed of the meteorological stations in the step (2) and the maximum wind speed of the engineering places obtained by the power downscaling to obtain the design wind speed of the engineering places.
In the step (1), the data adopted in the power downscaling WRF mode is the final analysis data FNL of the NCEP, and the resolution refers to downscaling the data with the horizontal resolution of FNL 1 degree multiplied by 1 degree to be less than 1 km.
In the step (1), the localization analysis refers to sensitivity analysis of different micro-physics and land surface processes of the power downscaling WRF mode and mode parameters of a planet boundary layer, and parameter combinations of the engineering location are selected.
The selection method of the parameter combination comprises the following steps: adopting a KF scheme for the cloud-accumulating convection parameterization scheme, adopting a Lin equivalent scheme for the micro physical process, adopting a YSU scheme for the atmospheric boundary layer and adopting a Noah scheme for the land surface process; and the long wave radiation Scheme adopts a Rapid radiation Transfer Model Scheme, the short wave radiation Scheme adopts a Dudhia Scheme Scheme, and the FNL data is subjected to power downscaling by adopting the combination of the schemes.
In the step (1), the step of interpolating the wind speed simulation result to the typical iron tower position means that a distance inverse ratio interpolation method is adopted to interpolate the power downscaling result to the engineering position.
In step (2), the correlation is represented by y ═ a × xn+ b, wherein x is the maximum wind speed of the witness-participating meteorological station, y is the maximum wind speed of the engineering position obtained by the power downscaling scale, and a and b are empirical coefficients.
In the step (2), the correlation analysis of the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence of the meteorological station and the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by the dynamic downscaling means that a mathematical model is established by linear/curve fitting and parameter estimation, and the correlation relation between the maximum wind speed of the parametrization meteorological station and the maximum wind speed of a project is determined.
The parameter estimation uses a least-one multiplication or a least-squares method.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
by utilizing a localized power downscaling mode, FNL with relatively high resolution, which fully assimilates observation data such as ground, ships, radiosondes, wind measuring balloons, airplanes and satellites, is used for finally analyzing the data, the power downscaling is carried out to 1km multiplied by 1km or even higher spatial resolution, a power downscaling result is interpolated to a project by adopting an inverse distance interpolation method, the daily maximum wind speed data of at least one year and the daily maximum wind speed data in the same time period of an adjacent meteorological station are obtained through whole compilation, and the designed wind speed of a power transmission line in a mountain area is indirectly calculated. The invention effectively improves the accuracy and reliability of the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line in the mountainous area under the condition of meeting the project progress and cost.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a diagram showing the relationship between the power transmission line path trend and the meteorological station location in a certain mountain area;
FIG. 2 is a power down scaling mesh nesting solution;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of the correlation between the maximum wind speed at the meteorological station B and the maximum wind speed at the project;
FIG. 4 is an I-shaped adaptive graph of the maximum wind speed extreme value of a meteorological station B in the calendar year;
FIG. 5 is a chart of a meteorological station A calendar year maximum wind speed extreme value type I.
Detailed Description
In order to make the technical means, the creation characteristics, the achievement purposes and the effects of the invention easy to understand, the invention is further described with the specific embodiments.
The national environmental forecast center (NCEP) provides FNL (final Operational analysis) reanalysis data with the characteristics of time-frequency, high density, strong continuity, high resolution, rich content and the like for a great number of researchers, the FNL data sufficiently assimilates observation data (ground, ships, radiosondence, wind measuring balloons, airplanes, satellites and the like) which are as comprehensive as possible, and the FNL data are subjected to quality control and assimilation treatment and are widely used for diagnosis and analysis of numerical modes, weather and climate. In the process of realizing the invention, the applicant finds that if the FNL data can be dynamically downscaled to 1km multiplied by 1km or even higher spatial resolution, and the power downscaling result is interpolated to a project, the power downscaling result can be used as a virtual temporary meteorological observation station for calculating the power transmission design wind speed in mountainous areas.
A mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method based on a power downscaling mode utilizes a localized power downscaling mode to fully assimilate FNL final analysis data with relatively high resolution of observation data such as ground, ships, radio sounding, wind measuring balloons, airplanes, satellites and the like, power downscaling is carried out to 1km multiplied by 1km or even higher spatial resolution, a distance inverse ratio interpolation method is adopted to interpolate a power downscaling result to a project, the power downscaling result is completely compiled to obtain day-by-day maximum wind speed data of at least one year and day-by-day maximum wind speed data in the same time period of an adjacent meteorological station for correlation analysis, and mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed is indirectly calculated.
The method for calculating the designed wind speed of the mountain area power transmission line based on the dynamic downscaling mode comprises the following steps:
step (1): selecting proper resolution and a simulation area range, carrying out local analysis on mode parameters such as micro-physics, land surface processes, planet boundary layers and the like of a dynamic downscaling WRF mode, and obtaining a wind speed simulation result of the engineering area for at least one year through dynamic downscaling; interpolating the simulation result to typical iron tower positions (hereinafter referred to as engineering positions) representing different topographic characteristics of the power transmission line in the mountain section, and sorting the simulation result of the engineering positions to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence;
step (2): selecting a participating meteorological station (with annual maximum wind speed data of more than 25 continuous years) which is nearest to the power transmission line in the mountain area and has complete data, counting to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence in the same time period with the power downscaling, carrying out correlation analysis on the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by the power downscaling, and fitting to obtain a correlation relationship between the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence and the power downscaling;
and (3): and (3) carrying out frequency analysis calculation on the annual maximum wind speed of the meteorological station which is referred to in the step (2) to obtain the design wind speed of the power transmission line in the corresponding design recurrence period, and calculating the design wind speed of the engineering point according to the correlation between the maximum wind speed of the meteorological station and the maximum wind speed of the engineering point obtained by the power downscaling in the step (2).
The following description will be given to a preferred embodiment of the present invention by taking wind speed estimation as an example in power transmission line engineering design in a mountain area and referring to the drawings in the specification, and the following embodiment is only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
The path trend of the power transmission line in a certain mountain area is shown as a red solid line in fig. 1, the ground elevation of the area where the line is located is 1000-1900 m (1985 national elevation standard, the same below), an meteorological station B is arranged near the power transmission line, the elevation is 88m, an meteorological station A is arranged at a certain engineering point along the power transmission line, the elevation is 1840m, the meteorological stations A and B both have 1980 and 2013 annual maximum wind speed data, and the design wind speed of the engineering place (the meteorological station A) is calculated through the steps. (note: the actually measured maximum wind speed data of the meteorological station A is used for checking the accuracy of the designed wind speed of the mountainous area power transmission line engineering point calculated by the method provided by the invention). The method comprises the following specific steps:
a step (100): FNL is selected as an initial field and side boundary condition of a power down dimension WRF mode, a simulation area is 22-37 degrees of north latitude, 30-45 degrees of north latitude, 104-13-130 degrees of east longitude are provided with 4 layers of nested grids, the outer layer grid can provide a more accurate boundary condition for the inner layer, the grid distance of the outermost layer is 27km, the second layer is 9km, the third layer is 3km, the innermost layer is 1km, and grid division is shown in figure 2. Selecting 4 kinds of cloud parameterization schemes such as KF, BMJ, GD, G3 and the like, 6 kinds of micro-physics schemes such as Kessler, Lin et, WSM 3, WSM5, Ferrier (New eta) and WSM6 and the like, 3 kinds of boundary layer parameterization schemes such as YSU scheme, MYJ scheme and ACM2 scheme and the like, and 3 kinds of land schemes such as NOAH, RUC, Pleim-Xiu and the like for sensitivity analysis, and obtaining the parameter combination suitable for local selection as follows: a KF scheme is adopted in a cloud-accumulation convection parameterization scheme, a Lin equivalent scheme is adopted in a micro physical process, a YSU scheme is adopted in an atmospheric boundary layer, and a Noah scheme is respectively adopted in a land process. In addition, a Rapid Radiative Transfer Model is adopted in the long-wave radiation Scheme, Dudhia Scheme is adopted in the short-wave radiation Scheme, and dynamic downscaling is carried out on FNL data from 1 month and 1 day of 2012 to 12 months and 31 days of 2012 by adopting the setting.
A step (101): interpolating the 1km × 1km power downscaling result to a meteorological station a (engineering place), extracting a daily maximum wind speed sequence (hereinafter referred to as sequence 1) from 1 month and 1 day in 2012 to 12 months and 31 days in 2012 at the engineering place, performing correlation analysis on the daily maximum wind speed sequence (hereinafter referred to as sequence 2) in the same time period as the meteorological station B, and fitting the correlation between the sequence 1 and the sequence 2, as shown in fig. 3.
A step (102): the average maximum wind speeds of the meteorological station B and the meteorological station A which are 10m away from the ground once in 100 years are 10min high are calculated by adopting the extreme value I type, the line fitting result is shown in figures 4 and 5, and the average maximum wind speeds of the meteorological station B and the meteorological station A which are 10m away from the ground once in 100 years are 21.6m/s and 31.1m/s respectively.
Step (103): according to the correlation relationship of the sequence 1 and the sequence 2, which is fitted in the step (101), the correlation relationship between the maximum wind speed at the meteorological station B and the maximum wind speed at the engineering is y-1.3164 x-0.6225(y represents the maximum wind speed at the engineering, and x represents the maximum wind speed at the meteorological station B). And 102) knowing that the average maximum wind speed is 21.6m/s when the wind speed is 10m higher than the ground for 100 years at the meteorological station B, and calculating that the average maximum wind speed is 27.8m/s when the wind speed is 10m higher than the ground for 100 years at the engineering station B.
According to a method commonly adopted by the current power industry mountain area design wind speed, the maximum adjustment coefficient of the wind speed of the wind opening consistent with the direction of the strong wind is 1.095-1.225, and the average maximum wind speed range of 10min above the ground in 100 years is 23.7 m/s-26.5 m/s when the wind speed of the engineering position is 10m above the ground in 100 years, which is calculated by the fact that the average maximum wind speed of 10min above the ground in 100 years at the meteorological station B is 21.6 m/s. Through the correlation between the meteorological station B and the maximum wind speed of the engineering position obtained based on the power downscaling result, the average maximum wind speed range of the engineering position is calculated to be 27.8m/s when the engineering position is 10m away from the ground once in 100 years. The average maximum wind speed of 10min 10m above the ground in 100 years obtained by statistics of the maximum wind speed series of the actual measurement meteorological station A at the engineering place is 31.1 m/s. According to the analysis, the design wind speed of the engineering position obtained based on the power downscaling result is closer to an actual value than an empirical coefficient method.
In summary, the method for calculating the designed wind speed of the power transmission line in the mountainous area based on the power downscaling mode according to the embodiments of the present invention includes: selecting proper resolution and a simulation area range, carrying out local analysis on mode parameters such as micro-physics, a land surface process, a planet boundary layer and the like of a dynamic downscaling WRF mode, obtaining a wind speed simulation result of at least one year of a typical iron tower position (hereinafter referred to as a project place) capable of representing different topographic characteristics of a power transmission line in a mountain section by dynamic downscaling, and sorting the simulation result to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence; selecting a participating meteorological station (with annual maximum wind speed data of more than 25 continuous years) which is nearest to the power transmission line in the mountain area and has complete data, counting to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence in the same time period with the power downscaling, carrying out correlation analysis on the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by the power downscaling, and fitting to obtain a correlation relationship between the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence and the power downscaling; and carrying out frequency analysis and calculation according to the annual maximum wind speed of the reference meteorological station to obtain the design wind speed of the power transmission line in the corresponding design recurrence period, and calculating the design wind speed of the engineering point according to the correlation between the maximum wind speed of the meteorological station and the maximum wind speed of the engineering point obtained by power downscaling. The mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method based on the power downscaling mode can overcome the defects that the backward calculation of the design wind speed is low in rationality and strong in randomness by multiplying the wind pressure value of the parametrization meteorological station by the wind pressure adjustment coefficient of the mountainous area; the method has the disadvantages that the cost for directly arranging the temporary observation station on the construction site is high, long temporary observation time is needed, and the requirements of project progress and cost control cannot be met. The invention effectively improves the accuracy and reliability of the designed wind speed value of the power transmission line in the mountainous area under the condition of meeting the project progress and cost.
The foregoing shows and describes the general principles and broad features of the present invention and advantages thereof. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described above, which are described in the specification and illustrated only to illustrate the principle of the present invention, but that various changes and modifications may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention, which fall within the scope of the invention as claimed. The scope of the invention is defined by the appended claims and equivalents thereof.
Claims (3)
1. A mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method based on a power downscaling mode is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step (1): determining the resolution and the range of a simulation area according to the performance and precision requirements of a computer, carrying out local analysis on the micro-physics and land surface processes of a dynamic downscaling WRF mode and the mode parameters of a planet boundary layer, and carrying out dynamic downscaling to obtain a wind speed simulation result of the engineering area for at least one year; interpolating the wind speed simulation result to a typical iron tower position, wherein the typical iron tower position represents a project position with different topographic characteristics of the power transmission line in a mountain section, and taking the maximum value of the daily interpolation result of the wind speed of the project position to obtain a daily maximum wind speed sequence;
in the step (1), data adopted in the power downscaling WRF mode is final analysis data FNL of NCEP, and the resolution is that the data with the horizontal resolution of FNL 1 degree multiplied by 1 degree is downscaled to be less than 1 km;
in the step (1), the localization analysis refers to sensitivity analysis of different micro-physics and land surface processes of the power downscaling WRF mode and mode parameters of a planet boundary layer, and a parameter combination of the engineering location is selected; the selection method of the parameter combination comprises the following steps: adopting a KF scheme for the cloud-accumulating convection parameterization scheme, adopting a Lin equivalent scheme for the micro physical process, adopting a YSU scheme for the atmospheric boundary layer and adopting a Noah scheme for the land surface process; the long wave radiation Scheme adopts a Rapid radial Transfer Model Scheme, the short wave radiation Scheme adopts a Dudhia Scheme Scheme, and the FNL data is subjected to power downscaling by adopting the combination of the schemes;
in the step (1), the step of interpolating the wind speed simulation result to the typical iron tower position means that a power downscaling result is interpolated to a project position by adopting an inverse distance interpolation method;
step (2): selecting a participating meteorological station which is closest to the power transmission line in the mountain area and has complete data, counting to obtain a day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence in the same time period with the power downscaling, carrying out correlation analysis on the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by the power downscaling, and fitting to obtain a correlation relationship between the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence and the power downscaling;
in step (2), the correlation is expressed as y = a × xn+ b, wherein x is the maximum wind speed of the witness-participating meteorological station, y is the maximum wind speed of the engineering position obtained by power downscaling, and a and b are empirical coefficients;
and (3): and (3) carrying out frequency analysis calculation on the annual maximum wind speed of the participating meteorological stations in the step (2) to obtain the design wind speed of the power transmission line at the corresponding design recurrence period, and substituting the design wind speed of the participating meteorological stations into the correlation formula according to the correlation between the maximum wind speed of the meteorological stations in the step (2) and the maximum wind speed of the engineering places obtained by the power downscaling to obtain the design wind speed of the engineering places.
2. The dynamic downscaling mode-based mountainous area power transmission line design wind speed calculation method according to claim 1, wherein in the step (2), the correlation analysis of the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence of the meteorological station and the day-by-day maximum wind speed sequence obtained by dynamic downscaling is that a mathematical model is established by linear/curve fitting and parameter estimation, and the correlation relation between the maximum wind speed of the parametrical meteorological station and the maximum wind speed of a project is determined.
3. The dynamic downscaling mode-based wind speed calculation method for mountain area power transmission line design according to claim 2, wherein the parameter estimation adopts least one multiplication or least square method.
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| CN112417638A (en) * | 2020-09-04 | 2021-02-26 | 浙江省气象科学研究所 | Strong wind fine analysis method for overhead transmission line in offshore area |
| CN112632799B (en) * | 2021-01-06 | 2024-01-26 | 国核电力规划设计研究院有限公司 | Method and device for evaluating design wind speed of power transmission line |
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