CN108110756A - Consider the industrial park distribution network planning method of uncertain factor - Google Patents
Consider the industrial park distribution network planning method of uncertain factor Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
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Abstract
The present invention proposes a kind of industrial park distribution network planning method for considering uncertain factor.This method initially sets up the probability load forecasting model for considering industrial park negative rules；Secondly, based on probability load model prediction result, scale division is carried out to garden load growth, uncertain planning is switched to the certainty based on load scale plans；Then, the representative transitions rack wiring program results based on cable system and the representative transitions rack wiring program results based on aerial net are provided respectively；Finally, reliability and evaluation of power supply capability are powered to representative transitions space truss project scheme using Monte Carlo Analogue Method and repeated power flow method.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the distribution network planning methods in Power System Planning.Industrial park distribution network planning is less at present examines
Consider the influence of negative rules factor, therefore establish the probability load forecasting model for considering industrial park negative rules；
Based on probability load model prediction result, scale division is carried out to garden load growth, uncertainty planning is switched to based on negative
The certainty planning of lotus scale；The representative transitions rack wiring program results based on cable system is provided respectively and based on aerial net
Representative transitions rack wiring program results；Using Monte Carlo Analogue Method and repeated power flow method to the wiring of representative transitions rack into
Row power supply reliability and evaluation of power supply capability.
Background technology
Load prediction is the basis of distribution network planning, however, being influenced by various factors, the load prediction knot of industrial park
Often there are larger uncertainties for fruit.
The main task of traditional Electric Power Network Planning is load growth situation and higher level's power source planning scheme during research program
On the basis of, to meet the development of custom power supply and demand, determine optimal power network development plan, make power grid construction and
Operating cost is minimum.In other words, traditional distribution network planning method is by selecting an anticipation environment, using under the environment
The projecting parameter of " definite ", which acquires, to be met the environmental constraints, relatively economical index certainty scheme and is planned.
However, in distribution network planning, either load prediction or a space truss project suffers from certain uncertainty,
Such as：Growth each year of load is all increasing, but increased how many uncertain.In addition, the uncertainty in newly-increased load place,
If being set according to goal programming rack, power distribution network possibly can not immediately carry out it corresponding etc..
The investment cost of programme is higher obtained by distribution network planning method under traditional certainty load, tackles load
The flexibility of uncertainty variation is poor.Power distribution network planning scheme under existing uncertain load is based on uncertain plan
Theory, model is complicated and solving speed is slower, it is difficult to work suitable for actual distribution network planning.
Based on above-mentioned background, this paper presents consider the probabilistic power distribution network typical case rack rule of industrial park load growth
The method of drawing.First, set forth herein the probability load forecasting method based on double smoothing, using this method to typical industry garden
Area's load load is predicted, to the probability distribution of typical industry garden load；Then, based on to garden uncertain load
The growth of uncertain load is converted into and is based on as a result, analyze garden branch trade load growth rule by probabilistic forecasting
The multistage certainty load scale of load scale；Finally, the division result based on load scale will match somebody with somebody under uncertain load
Electric space truss project is converted into the multistage Distribution Network Frame planning under certainty load, according to definite load scale numerical value, provides
Power distribution network typical case's space truss project wiring under the different load scale of industrial park.
The content of the invention
The present invention does not consider the influence of uncertain factor for current industrial park power distribution network, proposes that a kind of consideration is not true
The industrial park distribution network planning method of qualitative factor.It proposes the probability load forecasting method based on double smoothing, uses
This method can be predicted to obtain the probability distribution of typical industry garden load；It is proposed the uncertain load division based on load scale
According to industrial park uncertain load increasing law, the growth of uncertain load is converted into based on load scale for method
Multistage certainty load scale；Based on division gained load scale numerical value, provide under the different load scale of industrial park
Power distribution network typical case's space truss project wiring program results, trend method is to garden power supply reliability based on Monte Carlo Analogue Method and repeatedly
It is assessed with power supply capacity.The present invention, which carries, considers industrial park typical case rule of the negative rules factor based on load scale
Method of net rack is drawn, is planned suitable for similar industrial garden Distribution Network Frame, there is preferable normative and replicability.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention is：
1 considers the industrial park distribution network planning method of uncertain factor
Probability load prediction based on exponential smoothing
Exponential smoothing is most common to be extrapolated to obtain one of Forecasting Methodology of prediction data according to historical data.Exponential smoothing
Essence be the method for moving average, prediction result depends primarily upon value of the algorithm to historical data weight.In actual use one
As the weight of recent historical data is more than to the weight of historical data at a specified future date.Herein double smoothing algorithm is selected to carry out probability
Load prediction, the calculating process of double smoothing algorithm are as follows：
First, single exponential smoothing is carried out to initial data.Then, in single exponential smoothing result（Smoothing factor 0<<
1）On the basis of, double smoothing sequence is calculated according to formula (1) and (2)：
Wherein：t=1, 2, …, T；For the smooth value of t phases, for predicting the electric load of t+1 phases；
For the load value of t phases.Initial valueWithIt can be taken as。
Then, the intercept and slope of prediction straight line are calculated according to formula (3) and (4)
Finally, according to formula（5）It can be calculated the predicted value of future L
Formula（1）To formula（5）For the certainty load forecasting method based on double smoothing.However, power system load is by all
More uncertain factors influence, and prediction result also has larger uncertainty.Probabilistic model formula is common to represent that load is not known
Property distribution mathematical model.It is as follows to the Probability distribution prediction method of non-coming year load based on Monte Carlo Analogue Method：
1）Each history year peak load data in statistical forecast industrial park。
2）According to history year actual conditions, the normal distribution model year by year of structure history year load；
3）Probability sampling is carried out to each history year load, obtains the certainty load value year by year of Normal Distribution.
4）According to the history year certainty load value that sampling obtains, using formula（1）~（5）Prediction year is calculated really
Qualitative load value.
5）According to the maximum times of required simulation, step 3 is repeated）-4）, draw the probability load prediction knot for predicting the time
Fruit is fitted to obtain the probability distribution of the non-coming year load in industrial park according to prediction result.
Probability load prediction flow based on Monte Carlo Analogue Method is as shown in Figure 1.
The load prediction of typical industry garden and the division of load scale
It is advised by increasing to typical industry garden demand history load variations curve and industrial park load to uncertain load
The prediction of rule can draw following rule：Industrial load in garden increases very fast, slower, the load of later stage growth in first stage of construction
Uncertainty fluctuation is smaller；Garden business and resident load first stage of construction load growth is relatively slow, the later stage increase it is very fast.Therefore,
The growth trend of total load substantially meets linear increase rule in garden, in the Uncertainty distribution feelings that planning year is annual
Condition is also essentially identical.According to the investigation statistical result to domestic a large amount of industrial park load growth situations, general industry garden is born
The saturation value of lotus is generally 50MW, and annual load growth value is essentially identical.
The variation of industrial park load value can influence the structure of garden Distribution Network Frame, and the construction of garden Distribution Network Frame is one
The process of a more time phases, the distribution network planning under uncertain load should combine multistage programming method, by uncertainty
It is true that the Uncertainty distribution of load by the selection of " scale " numerical value is converted to the multistage with multiple certainty load values
Qualitative distribution network planning problem.It can so avoid since result caused by traditional certainty distribution network planning is more conservative, once
Invest the problem of larger.Based on this rule, " scale " division can be carried out to the load growth in industrial and civil construction year, forms load
" scale " space.
Power distribution network typical case's space truss project based on load scale
After " scale " division of load, the Distribution Network Frame that more time phases can be carried out according to load " scale " numerical value is planned, is based on
The Distribution Network Frame planning of load " scale " need to meet the basic demand of planning directive/guide, while tackle its power supply capacity and power supply reliably
Property is verified, to meet indices requirement.In addition, planning gained Distribution Network Frame should have typicalness and reproducibility, it can
It easily " transplants " into the industrial park space truss project work with similar situation.
Load is from the case that 0 rises to 10MW, obtaining aerial net and transition rack such as Fig. 2 institutes of cable system first stage
Show.Because transition rack one belongs to the initial construction period of garden, therefore only substation's power supply in garden is set, and
User is not high to power supply reliability requirement degree.
Load is from the transition rack of aerial net and cable system second stage in the case that 10MW rises to 20MW, is obtained as schemed
Shown in 3.Because transition rack two belongs to the initial construction period of garden, therefore set only substation's power supply electricity in garden
Source, and user there are certain requirements power supply reliability.
Load is from aerial net and the transition rack of cable system phase III in the case that 20MW rises to 30MW, is obtained as schemed
Shown in 4.Because transition rack three belongs to the Rapid development stage of garden, therefore garden Nei Youliangzuo substations power supply is set,
And certain customers have higher requirements to power supply reliability.
Load is from the transition rack of aerial net and cable system fourth stage in the case that 30MW rises to 40MW, is obtained as schemed
Shown in 5.Because transition rack four belongs to the steady development stage of garden, therefore garden Nei Youliangzuo substations power supply is set,
And certain customers have higher requirements to power supply reliability.
Load from the case that 40MW rises to 50MW, obtain the transition rack in aerial the 5th stage of net and cable system such as
Shown in Fig. 6.Because transition rack five belongs to the saturation stage of ripeness of garden, therefore set garden Nei Youliangzuo substations power supply electricity
Source, and certain customers have higher requirements to power supply reliability.
The increase with the growth of garden load and power supply reliability requirement is can be seen that from typical space truss project result,
The development that net is maked somebody a mere figurehead in garden should be by singly radiating or simply connected network gradually transits to multi-joint network wiring；The development Ying Youhuan of garden cable system
Net cabinet is single radiation of capital equipment or Single-ring network gradually transits to connection of ring power network using switchyard as capital equipment.
Typical programme planning appraisal
For the typical rack in above-mentioned five stages, Monte Carlo Analogue Method is respectively adopted and tidal current computing method carried out repeatedly
Cross the reliability of rack and net capability analysis.
The fail-safe analysis of transition rack is carried out using Monte Carlo Analogue Method.Monte Carlo Analogue Method is one kind with probability
Numerical computation method based on statistics, also referred to as Monte Carlo method.Monte Carlo method is to simulate composition system on computers
Each time of all random processes realization, after one section of longer time simulate, it is possible to realize to calculate according to these and be
All kinds of indexs of system.In calculating, by the chance event as Monte Carlo simulation whether the failure of each component, produced with computer
Whether raw stochastic variable is broken down with the operating status of analog component, the influence circuit to each load point carry out one section compared with
Prolonged simulation, and parameters situation is counted, so as to finally calculate each reliability index.
The calculating of ability is powered using peak load method of multiplicity, peak load method of multiplicity is that network-adaptive load is increased
Long ability represents that object function is the peak load multiple k of network with a linear programming model（System can supply most
Big the ratio between load and actual load）, constraints is the energy mobile equilibrium constraint of network and the capacity-constrained of circuit.It is negative using maximum
Lotus method of multiplicity calculate distribution system net capability mathematical model be：
Object function：
Constraints：
In formula：f(I,kP l , P g ,U) it is trend equilibrium equation；I、I maxRespectively line current and circuit maximum carrying capacity；P g 、P g,maxFor the actual output of power supply and the output upper limit；P l For payload,kFor load maximum increased times；U、U minAndU maxThe respectively bound of node voltage and node voltage.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the probability load prediction flow based on Monte Carlo Analogue Method
Fig. 2 makes somebody a mere figurehead net and cable system typical wiring for the first stage
Fig. 3 makes somebody a mere figurehead net and cable system typical wiring for second stage
Fig. 4 makes somebody a mere figurehead net and cable system typical wiring for the phase III
Fig. 5 makes somebody a mere figurehead net and cable system typical wiring for fourth stage
Fig. 6 makes somebody a mere figurehead net and cable system typical wiring for the 5th stage
Fig. 7 is to consider that the industrial park distribution network planning method of uncertain factor resolves flow
Specific embodiment
1. proposing the probability load forecasting method based on double smoothing, can be predicted to obtain typical work using this method
The probability distribution of industry garden load；
2. proposing the uncertain load division methods based on load scale, increased according to industrial park uncertain load and advised
The growth of uncertain load, is converted into the multistage certainty load scale based on load scale by rule；
3. based on division gained load scale numerical value, the power distribution network typical case rack rule under the different load scale of industrial park are provided
Draw wiring program results.
4. it carries out synthesis to garden power supply reliability and power supply capacity using Monte Carlo Analogue Method and repeatedly trend method to comment
Estimate.
Claims (4)
1. proposing the probability load forecasting method based on double smoothing, can be predicted to obtain typical industry garden using this method
The probability distribution of load.
2. according to the probability load forecasting method acquired results that claim 1 proposes, the uncertainty based on load scale is proposed
Load division methods according to industrial park uncertain load increasing laws, the growth of uncertain load are converted into and is based on
The multistage certainty load scale of load scale.
3. according to the load scale numerical value that claim 2 determines, the power distribution network typical case under the different load scale of industrial park is provided
Space truss project wiring provides respectively using cable system to advocate peace and makes somebody a mere figurehead the typical distribution net wiring based on netting.
4. the industrial park power distribution network typical case's space truss project wiring obtained according to claim 3, using Monte Carlo Analogue Method and
Trend method is powered reliability and evaluation of power supply capability to planning wiring repeatedly.
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| CN115222211A (en) * | 2022-06-21 | 2022-10-21 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司内蒙古电力科学研究院分公司 | Electric power energy intelligent analysis management and control system based on internet of things technology |
| CN115313371A (en) * | 2022-08-22 | 2022-11-08 | 国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power distribution network frame planning device based on source load uncertainty |
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| CN115313371A (en) * | 2022-08-22 | 2022-11-08 | 国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院 | Power distribution network frame planning device based on source load uncertainty |
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