CN108022017A - A kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change - Google Patents

A kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change Download PDF

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CN108022017A
CN108022017A CN201711312709.5A CN201711312709A CN108022017A CN 108022017 A CN108022017 A CN 108022017A CN 201711312709 A CN201711312709 A CN 201711312709A CN 108022017 A CN108022017 A CN 108022017A
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energy consumption
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肖伟华
姜大川
王建华
王浩
赵勇
侯保灯
鲁帆
李保琦
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China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
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    • Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
    • Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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Abstract

The present invention, which provides a kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change, to be included：Establish the relation equation of degree/day and unit construction area energy consumption per day；Obtain history day temperature degrees of data and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day；Scatter diagram is established according to history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, the relevant parameter in relation equation is determined according to the variation tendency of scatterplot；The average absolute percent difference of calculated relationship equation, according to the predictive ability of the average absolute percent difference evaluation relation equation；If relation equation possesses predictive ability, the day temperature degrees of data obtained under Different climate scene substitutes into relation equation unit of account construction area energy consumption per day；Total energy consumption is calculated according to unit construction area energy consumption per day；This method need not establish the model of complexity, simple and convenient, easily operated.

Description

A kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change
Technical field
The present invention relates to energy computation technical field, more particularly to a kind of energy consumption prediction side based on climate change Method.
Background technology
With the development of the social economy, energy consumption rapid development, meanwhile, global warming will cause warming and summer The energy consumption change of Ji Jiangwen, studies this change, and the foundation of objective energy demand adjustment can be provided for decision-making section, Be conducive to the reasonable utilization of the energy.
At present in influence research of the climate change to energy-consuming, generally using Energy Plus models, DOE-2/ DOE-2.2 models, building energy demand model (Building Energy Demand Model) etc., but these models are more Complexity, calculating process also take time and effort.
The content of the invention
The present invention proposes a kind of base for the problem of energy-consuming model of the prior art is complicated, calculating process is cumbersome In the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology of climate change, it can effectively simplify energy computation process, and accuracy is high.
A kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change, including：
Establish the relation equation of degree/day and unit construction area energy consumption per day；
Obtain history day temperature degrees of data and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day；
Scatter diagram, root are established according to the history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day The relevant parameter in the relation equation is determined according to the variation tendency of scatterplot；
The average absolute percent difference of the relation equation is calculated, the relation side is evaluated according to the average absolute percent difference The predictive ability of journey；
If the relation equation possesses predictive ability, obtain described in the day temperature degrees of data substitution under Different climate scene Relation equation unit of account construction area energy consumption per day；
Total energy consumption is calculated according to the unit construction area energy consumption per day.
Further, the relation equation of degree/day and unit the construction area energy consumption per day is as follows：
Wherein, E is unit construction area energy consumption per day, E0For from the unit construction area energy under the influence of temperature Consumption per day,Sensitivity for winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperature,For electric power energy day summer Consumption figure is to the sensitivity of temperature, TWAnd TSFor temperature breakthrough, T is degree/day.
Further, established according to the history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day Scatter diagram, the relevant parameter in the relation equation is determined according to the variation tendency of scatterplot, including：
Establish using degree/day as abscissa, unit construction area historic energy consumption per day is the rectangular co-ordinate of ordinate System；
Respectively by the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day in the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day and summer Electric power energy consumption per day is marked in the rectangular coordinate system, forms scatter diagram；
Each scatterplot of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day is connected, forms first straight line section, it is straight to calculate described first The slope of line segment, obtains sensitivity of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperature；
Each scatterplot of the summer electric power energy consumption per day is connected, forms second straight line section, it is straight to calculate described second The slope of line segment, obtains sensitivity of the summer electric power energy consumption per day to temperature；
The terminal of the first straight line section and the starting point of second straight line section are temperature breakthrough；
The corresponding energy consumption per day of the temperature breakthrough is from the unit construction area energy day under the influence of temperature Consumption figure.
Further, the average absolute percent difference of the relation equation is calculated by equation below：
Wherein, MAPE is average absolute percent difference, E0iFor unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, E1iFor that will go through History day temperature degrees of data substitutes into the unit construction area energy consumption per day that the relation equation is calculated, and n is number of days.
Further, the forecasting accuracy of the relation equation is evaluated according to the average absolute percent difference, including：
By the average absolute percent difference compared with predetermined threshold value, if the average absolute percent difference is less than or waits In the predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation possesses predictive ability；
If the average absolute percent difference is more than the predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation does not possess prediction energy Power.
Further, the predetermined threshold value is 10%.
Further, the Climate Scenarios include low emission scene, medium emissions inventory and high emissions inventory.
Further, the temperature change passes through the following formula to the influence value of the unit construction area energy consumption Calculated：
Q=EA； (3)
Wherein, E is the energy consumption per day of unit construction area, and A is construction area, Q total energy consumptions.
Energy consumption Forecasting Methodology provided by the invention based on climate change, including at least following beneficial effect：
(1) model of complexity need not be established, it is simple and convenient, it is easily operated, with reference to historical data under climate change Energy consumption is predicted, and utilizes average absolute percent difference evaluation and foreca ability, ensures the accuracy and science of prediction, in advance Foundation can be provided for the adjustment of resident living energy needs by surveying result；
(2) by the average absolute percent difference of calculated relationship equation, judge the predictive ability of relation equation, further improve The accuracy of prediction result；
(3) total energy consumption obtained is calculated, the influence situation that Future Climate Change changes energy consumption can be predicted, be The utilization of the energy provides strong analysis tool, reduces energy waste.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart of embodiment of the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology provided by the invention based on climate change.
Fig. 2 be in the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology provided by the invention based on climate change according to history day temperature degrees of data and The scatter diagram that unit construction area historic energy consumption per day is established.
Embodiment
The embodiment of the present invention is described in detail below, but what the present invention can be defined by the claims and cover Multitude of different ways is implemented.
With reference to figure 1, the present embodiment provides a kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change, including：
Step S101, establishes the relation equation of degree/day and unit construction area energy consumption per day；
Step S102, obtains history day temperature degrees of data and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day；
Step S103, is established according to the history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day Scatter diagram, the relevant parameter in the relation equation is determined according to the variation tendency of scatterplot；
Step S104, calculates the average absolute percent difference of the relation equation, is evaluated according to the average absolute percent difference The predictive ability of the relation equation；
Step S105, if the relation equation possesses predictive ability, obtains the day temperature number of degrees under Different climate scene According to the substitution relation equation unit of account construction area energy consumption per day；
Step S106, total energy consumption is calculated according to the unit construction area energy consumption per day.
Energy consumption Forecasting Methodology provided in this embodiment based on climate change, it is not necessary to establish the model of complexity, letter Folk prescription is just, easily operated, and the energy consumption under climate change is predicted with reference to historical data, and utilizes average absolute percentage Poor evaluation and foreca ability, ensures the accuracy and science of prediction, and prediction result can be that the adjustment of resident living energy needs carries For foundation.
Further, in step S101, the relation equation of degree/day and unit construction area energy consumption per day is as follows：
Wherein, E is unit construction area energy consumption per day (unit kg/m2, equivalent into standard coal represent), E0 For from the unit construction area energy consumption per day under the influence of temperature,It is winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperature Sensitivity,It is summer electric power energy consumption per day to the sensitivity of temperature, TWAnd TSFor temperature breakthrough, T is Degree/day.
Mainly include the energy such as illumination, cooking, household electrical appliances traffic from the unit construction area energy day consumption under the influence of temperature Consumption, the consumption of Coal Energy Source day in winter is main to include boiler central heating, electric power energy day summer consumption predominantly air conditioner refrigerating, temperature It is to consume corresponding temperature nodes from the unit construction area energy day under the influence of temperature to spend turning point.
Built for the direct mode of the energy, including illumination, cooking, household electrical appliances, traffic, and Various Seasonal energy-consuming mode Vertical relation equation, can obtain the influence that climate change produces energy-consuming, and foundation is provided for subsequent prediction.
Further, in step S102, history day temperature degrees of data and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day are obtained, The data source is the statistical yearbook of each department, the meteorological site data of each department.
Further, in step S103, according to the history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy Consumption per day establishes scatter diagram, and the relevant parameter in the relation equation is determined according to the variation tendency of scatterplot, including：
Establish using degree/day as abscissa, unit construction area historic energy consumption per day is the rectangular co-ordinate of ordinate System；
Respectively by the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day in the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day and summer Electric power energy consumption per day is marked in the rectangular coordinate system, forms scatter diagram；
Each scatterplot of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day is connected, forms first straight line section, it is straight to calculate described first The slope of line segment, obtains sensitivity of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperature；
Each scatterplot of the summer electric power energy consumption per day is connected, forms second straight line section, it is straight to calculate described second The slope of line segment, obtains sensitivity of the summer electric power energy consumption per day to temperature；
The terminal of the first straight line section and the starting point of second straight line section are temperature breakthrough；
The corresponding energy consumption per day of the temperature breakthrough is from the unit construction area energy day under the influence of temperature Consumption figure.
Specifically, with reference to figure 2, it is abscissa to initially set up degree/day, and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day is The rectangular coordinate system of ordinate, corresponds to its degree/day mark in the rectangular coordinate system by historic energy consumption per day, is formed and dissipated Point, it can be seen that these scatterplots are in certain regularity of distribution, and each scatterplot of winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day is connected First straight line section can be obtained, the slope of the first straight line section is sensitivity of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperatureEach scatterplot of summer electric power energy consumption per day, which is connected, can obtain second straight line section, the second straight line The slope of section is sensitivity of the summer electric power energy consumption per day to temperatureThe terminal of first straight line section is temperature Spend turning point TW, the starting point of second straight line section is temperature breakthrough TS, temperature breakthrough TWAnd TSCorresponding energy consumption per day As from the unit construction area energy consumption per day E under the influence of temperature0。
By establishing scatter diagram, it may be determined that the sensitive journey of winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day in relation equation to temperature DegreeSensitivity of the summer electric power energy consumption per day to temperatureTemperature breakthrough TWAnd TS, from temperature Under the influence of unit construction area energy consumption per day E0。
Further, in step S104, by the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day obtained by scatter diagram to the quick of temperature Sense degreeSensitivity of the summer electric power energy consumption per day to temperatureTemperature breakthrough TWAnd TSAnd From the unit construction area energy consumption per day E under the influence of temperature0Substitute into relation equation, then by history day temperature degrees of data generation Enter to be calculated unit construction area energy consumption per day E in relation equation1i, pass through the average absolute of following formula calculated relationship equation Percent difference：
Wherein, MAPE is average absolute percent difference, E0iFor unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, E1iFor that will go through History day temperature degrees of data substitutes into the unit construction area energy consumption per day that the relation equation is calculated, and n is number of days.
Further, the forecasting accuracy of the relation equation is evaluated according to the average absolute percent difference, including：
By the average absolute percent difference compared with predetermined threshold value, if the average absolute percent difference is less than or waits In the predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation possesses predictive ability；
If the average absolute percent difference is more than the predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation does not possess prediction energy Power.
As a preferred embodiment, the predetermined threshold value be 10%, i.e., when MAPE indexs be less than or equal to 10%, Then think that relation equation possesses predictive ability, if MAPE indexs are more than 10%, then it is assumed that relation equation does not possess predictive ability, Needing reacquisition history day temperature degrees of data to be established to unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, scatter diagram calculating is related to be joined Number.
By the average absolute percent difference of calculated relationship equation, judge the predictive ability of relation equation, further improve pre- Survey the accuracy of result.
Further, in step S105, the Climate Scenarios include low emission scene, medium emissions inventory and high row To one's heart's content scape, selects HadGEM2-ES climatic models, the day temperature degrees of data under Different climate scene is handled, as the defeated of relation equation Enter (i.e. T), calculate temperature change to unit construction area energy consumption per day.
Further, the unit construction area energy consumption per day for calculating acquisition is substituted into the following formula, you can calculate To total energy consumption：
Q=EA； (3)
Wherein, E is the energy consumption per day of unit construction area, and A is construction area, and Q is total energy consumption.
The total energy consumption obtained is calculated, the influence situation that Future Climate Change changes energy consumption can be predicted, be energy The utilization in source provides strong analysis tool, reduces energy waste.
To sum up, the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology provided in this embodiment based on climate change, including at least following beneficial to effect Fruit：
(1) model of complexity need not be established, it is simple and convenient, it is easily operated, with reference to historical data under climate change Energy consumption is predicted, and utilizes average absolute percent difference evaluation and foreca ability, ensures the accuracy and science of prediction, in advance Foundation can be provided for the adjustment of resident living energy needs by surveying result；
(2) by the average absolute percent difference of calculated relationship equation, judge the predictive ability of relation equation, further improve The accuracy of prediction result；
(3) total energy consumption obtained is calculated, the influence situation that Future Climate Change changes energy consumption can be predicted, be The utilization of the energy provides strong analysis tool, reduces energy waste.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, for the skill of this area For art personnel, the invention may be variously modified and varied.Within the spirit and principles of the invention, that is made any repaiies Change, equivalent substitution, improvement etc., should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (8)

  1. A kind of 1. energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change, it is characterised in that including：
    Establish the relation equation of degree/day and unit construction area energy consumption per day；
    Obtain history day temperature degrees of data and unit construction area historic energy consumption per day；
    Scatter diagram is established according to the history day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, according to scattered The variation tendency of point determines the relevant parameter in the relation equation；
    The average absolute percent difference of the relation equation is calculated, the relation equation is evaluated according to the average absolute percent difference Predictive ability；
    If the relation equation possesses predictive ability, the day temperature degrees of data obtained under Different climate scene substitutes into the relation Equation calculation unit construction area energy consumption per day；
    Total energy consumption is calculated according to the unit construction area energy consumption per day.
  2. 2. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 1 based on climate change, it is characterised in that the degree/day It is as follows with the relation equation of unit construction area energy consumption per day：
    <mrow> <mi>E</mi> <mo>=</mo> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mn>0</mn> </msub> <mo>+</mo> <mfenced open = "{" close = "}"> <mtable> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mi>E</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mi>T</mi> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mi>w</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>T</mi> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>w</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>,</mo> <mi>T</mi> <mo>&amp;le;</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>w</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mi>E</mi> </mrow> <mrow> <mi>&amp;Delta;</mi> <mi>T</mi> </mrow> </mfrac> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mi>s</mi> </msub> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>T</mi> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>s</mi> </msub> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>,</mo> <mi>T</mi> <mo>&amp;GreaterEqual;</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>s</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> <mtr> <mtd> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mo>,</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>w</mi> </msub> <mo>&amp;le;</mo> <mi>T</mi> <mo>&amp;le;</mo> <msub> <mi>T</mi> <mi>s</mi> </msub> </mrow> </mtd> </mtr> </mtable> </mfenced> <mo>;</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mn>1</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow>
    Wherein, E is unit construction area energy consumption per day, E0To disappear from the unit construction area energy day under the influence of temperature Fei Liang,Sensitivity for winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to temperature,Consumed for electric power energy day summer Measure the sensitivity to temperature, TwAnd TSFor temperature breakthrough, T is degree/day.
  3. 3. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 2 based on climate change, it is characterised in that gone through according to described History day temperature degrees of data and the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day establish scatter diagram, true according to the variation tendency of scatterplot Relevant parameter in the fixed relation equation, including：
    Establish using degree/day as abscissa, unit construction area historic energy consumption per day is the rectangular coordinate system of ordinate；
    Respectively by the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day and summer electric power in the unit construction area historic energy consumption per day Energy consumption per day is marked in the rectangular coordinate system, forms scatter diagram；
    Each scatterplot of the winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day is connected, first straight line section is formed, calculates the first straight line section Slope, obtain winter Coal Energy Source consumption per day to the sensitivity of temperature；
    Each scatterplot of the summer electric power energy consumption per day is connected, second straight line section is formed, calculates the second straight line section Slope, obtain summer electric power energy consumption per day to the sensitivity of temperature；
    The terminal of the first straight line section and the starting point of second straight line section are temperature breakthrough；
    The corresponding energy consumption per day of the temperature breakthrough is from the unit construction area energy day consumption under the influence of temperature Amount.
  4. 4. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 3 based on climate change, it is characterised in that the relation side The average absolute percent difference of journey is calculated by equation below：
    <mrow> <mi>M</mi> <mi>A</mi> <mi>P</mi> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mi>n</mi> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> <mo>=</mo> <mfrac> <mn>1</mn> <mi>n</mi> </mfrac> <munderover> <mo>&amp;Sigma;</mo> <mrow> <mi>i</mi> <mo>=</mo> <mn>1</mn> </mrow> <mi>n</mi> </munderover> <mo>|</mo> <mfrac> <mrow> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mn>1</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> <mo>-</mo> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mrow> <msub> <mi>E</mi> <mrow> <mn>0</mn> <mi>i</mi> </mrow> </msub> </mfrac> <mo>|</mo> <mo>&amp;times;</mo> <mn>100</mn> <mi>%</mi> <mo>;</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mo>-</mo> <mrow> <mo>(</mo> <mn>2</mn> <mo>)</mo> </mrow> </mrow>
    Wherein, MAPE is average absolute percent difference, E0iFor unit construction area historic energy consumption per day, E1iFor by history day temperature Degrees of data substitutes into the unit construction area energy consumption per day that the relation equation is calculated, and n is number of days.
  5. 5. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 4 based on climate change, it is characterised in that according to described flat Absolute percent difference evaluates the forecasting accuracy of the relation equation, including：
    By the average absolute percent difference compared with predetermined threshold value, if the average absolute percent difference is less than or equal to institute State predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation possesses predictive ability；
    If the average absolute percent difference is more than the predetermined threshold value, it is determined that the relation equation does not possess predictive ability.
  6. 6. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 5 based on climate change, it is characterised in that the default threshold It is worth for 10%.
  7. 7. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 6 based on climate change, it is characterised in that the weather feelings Scape includes low emission scene, medium emissions inventory and high emissions inventory.
  8. 8. the energy consumption Forecasting Methodology according to claim 7 based on climate change, it is characterised in that the energy disappears Expense total amount is calculated by the following formula：
    Q=EA；(3)
    Wherein, E is the energy consumption per day of unit construction area, and A is construction area, Q total energy consumptions.
CN201711312709.5A 2017-12-11 2017-12-11 A kind of energy consumption Forecasting Methodology based on climate change Pending CN108022017A (en)

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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
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CN104573851A (en) * 2014-12-19 2015-04-29 天津大学 Meteorological temperature forecast-based building hourly load forecasting method
CN104616079A (en) * 2015-02-04 2015-05-13 国家电网公司 Temperature change based power grid daily electricity consumption prediction method
CN105069536A (en) * 2015-08-19 2015-11-18 国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院 Electricity demand predication method based on temperature and economic growth
CN105809288A (en) * 2016-03-09 2016-07-27 国网上海市电力公司 Fixed effect model-based power consumption prediction method

Patent Citations (5)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
US20120278038A1 (en) * 2011-04-29 2012-11-01 International Business Machines Corporation Estimating monthly heating oil consumption from fiscal year oil consumption data using multiple regression and heating degree day density function
CN104573851A (en) * 2014-12-19 2015-04-29 天津大学 Meteorological temperature forecast-based building hourly load forecasting method
CN104616079A (en) * 2015-02-04 2015-05-13 国家电网公司 Temperature change based power grid daily electricity consumption prediction method
CN105069536A (en) * 2015-08-19 2015-11-18 国网安徽省电力公司经济技术研究院 Electricity demand predication method based on temperature and economic growth
CN105809288A (en) * 2016-03-09 2016-07-27 国网上海市电力公司 Fixed effect model-based power consumption prediction method

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