CN107944696B - Coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis - Google Patents
Coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis, which comprises the following steps of: step one, analyzing and predicting the age composition of community population, segmenting the community population according to age, women of childbearing age and living state, and counting the population proportion of each segment; secondly, calculating the cost and expense of the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme under different heating modes aiming at the same community; and thirdly, obtaining the optimal scheme plan of changing coal into electricity for energy supply in K years by taking the minimum overall cost as the optimal condition. According to the invention, through analysis and trend prediction of the age structure of community people and the energy consumption habits of people of different ages, on the premise of meeting the community heating requirements within a plurality of years, the economy of construction investment and operation maintenance is realized, and the problem that the energy consumption characteristics of the community are difficult to accurately match in the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme in the prior art is solved, so that the community coal-to-electricity heating scheme plan with higher economy is obtained.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme planning, and particularly relates to a coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis.
Background
In recent years, Jingjin Ji and surrounding areas often have haze and severe polluted weather in autumn and winter, which seriously affect the quality of life of people and threaten the health of common people. Relevant researches show that a great deal of bulk coal combustion heating is adopted in northern cities and rural areas, so that pollutants are directly discharged into the air without being treated, and the bulk coal combustion heating is one of important factors causing serious haze problems in Jingjin Ji and peripheral areas. In order to solve the related air pollution problems, the national development and improvement committee issues guidance suggestions on the substitution of propulsion electric energy, the environmental protection department issues comprehensive air pollution treatment attack and stiffness action schemes in autumn and winter in Beijing jin Ji and peripheral areas 2017 and 2018, and the coal-to-electricity technology is used as an important means for air pollution treatment to enter a comprehensive landing implementation stage.
Aiming at the difference of community energy consumption characteristics, various technologies such as an existing air source heat pump, an electric heater and a heat accumulating type electric boiler can be selected, and different technical types provide different requirements for the construction of matched power grid projects. The conventional coal-to-electricity scheme planning is mainly limited to selecting an electricity substitution technology for a target area according to the heating area of a house, and then completing power grid planning; the age composition analysis and prediction of the target community population of coal-to-electricity conversion is lacked, and the difference of the electric heating demands of various communities cannot be fully considered.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis, aiming at the defects of the prior art.
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is realized by adopting the following technical scheme:
a coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis comprises the following steps:
first, community population age composition analysis and prediction
(1) Firstly, a community living committee or a local place of dispatch is docked, and the current resident population information of the community is acquired:
① Total resident population N, population N of each age grouptPopulation Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtAnd the number of foreign migratory population in each age group
Wherein N istWherein t represents age, population number N of each age grouptCan be divided into: 0-18 years old in young children and school age population, 19-60 in working age population, 61 years old and older in retirement population; wherein the population Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtCan be divided into: number of female reproductive years
Number of born-one-fetus population of women of childbearing age
② obtaining local statistics bureau population mortality rate d of each agetNatural growth rate btSecond fetus will of birthtX represents year, t represents age, the number of persons of a given age in a given year in the community is calculated,
the number of people aged (t +1) in (x +1) years x the number of people aged t in x years (mortality rate in t years in 1-x years), i.e., the number of people aged t in 1-x years
With t1、t2Represents two specific ages, thus t in x years1Year-old-t2The population ratio of the aged is:
(2) respectively counting population proportions of infants and school age from x years, x +1 year, x +2 years to x + K years
Proportion of population in working phase
Proportion of retired population
Second step, aiming at the same community, the cost and expense of the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme under different heating modes
(1) The setting of each parameter in the scheme of changing coal into electricity energy supply,
the number of the community households M and the average heating season of the households are subsidized by electric quantity WSupplement deviceHeating season peak section electricity price DPeak(s)Heating season DGrainThe number of hours per valley period in heating season HGrain；
Indoor uniform heating power g taking air source heat pump as heating modeHeat pumpAverage heating power g for household by using directly-heated electric heater as heating modeElectric radiatorAverage heating power g for household by using heat accumulating electric boiler as heating modeElectric boiler-heatingAverage low-temperature operation power gElectric boiler-low temperature；
With reference to municipal heating regulations, the indoor design temperature is not lower than FHeating systemDEG C, outdoor temperature F of heating in winterOutdoorsAnd analyzing at 120 days in the heating season, and taking the temperature of each month into balanced consideration, wherein the seasonal load coefficient is gamma. For the family heating daily load coefficient in the infant period, the school age period and the retirement period, the coefficient is omegasFor the family heating daily load coefficient in the working period of working, the coefficient is omegal，
Distribution network construction investment s caused by newly increased unit heating load (kW)Distribution networkThe cost of the indoor wire reconstruction and the protection switch reconstruction is sIndoor lineThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of air source heat pump energy supply including purchase and installation of heat pump equipment and indoor water pipe network installation is sHeat pumpThe unit load (kW) construction cost of purchasing and installing the directly-heated electric heater energy supply equipment is sElectric radiatorThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of the heat accumulating type electric boiler including the purchase and installation of the electric boiler and the heat preservation water tank equipment, the installation of an indoor water pipe network and an outdoor heat distribution pipe network is sElectric boiler，
(2) Cost and expense calculation of each energy supply mode in coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme
Air source heat pump is used as community heating energy supply mode
Community heating operation load GHeat pump＝gHeat pump×γ×[M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs+M×P19-60×ωl]
Construction cost S of air source heat pump energy supply schemeHeat pump＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump+sDistribution network×GHeat pump+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump in heating season
Peak electric quantity of electric quantity patch
Electric quantity subsidy valley section electric quantity
Operating cost of using air source heat pump as energy supply mode
② comprehensive energy supply mode by air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater
The air source heat pump technology is adopted for heating residents in the infant period, the school age period and the retirement period who are at home for a long time; the residents who are nobody at home and normally work at daytime adopt the direct-heating electric heater to heat by using valley electricity, and need H outside valley periodSupplement deviceThe supplementary heat supply is carried out in the hour,
the air source heat pump and the directly-heated electric heater are comprehensively used for solving the problem of community heating, and the operation load of the community air source heat pump in the comprehensive energy supply scheme
GHeat pump supplement＝gHeat pump×γ×M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs
Operation load of community directly-heated electric heater in comprehensive energy supply scheme
GElectric radiator＝gElectric radiator×γ×M×P19-60×ωl
Maximum heating load of community in comprehensive scheme
GHeat pump-electric heater＝GHeat pump supplement+GElectric radiator
Construction cost of air source heat pump-directly-heated electric heater comprehensive energy supply scheme
SHeat pump-electric heater＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump supplement+sElectric radiator×GElectric radiator+sDistribution network×GHeat pump-electric heater+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of directly-heated electric heater part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of taking air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater as comprehensive energy supply mode
QHeat pump-electric heater＝QHeat pump supplement+QElectric radiator
Heating and energy supplying mode taking heat accumulating type electric boiler as community
Community heating maximum load powered by heat accumulating type electric boiler
GElectric boiler max＝gElectric boiler-heating×γ×M
Heat accumulating type electric boiler energy supply construction cost
SElectric boiler＝sElectric boiler×GElectric boiler max+sDistribution network×GElectric boiler max
Operating cost of heat accumulating type electric boiler in heating season
Heating power consumption for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Winter heating operation cost for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Heat accumulating type electric boiler heating power consumption for residents in working period of heating community
From low temperature operation time
And mining
Electric quantity in warm period
Composition of
Heating operation cost of residents in community working period in winter
Operating cost with heat accumulating type electric heater as energy supply mode
Thirdly, obtaining a scheme plan for changing coal into electricity for energy supply within K years
In K years, the whole cost of taking the air source heat pump as an energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking an air source heat pump and a directly-heated electric heater as a comprehensive energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking a heat accumulating type electric boiler as an energy supply mode
Compared with winter energy supply schemes of different electric heating technologies within a certain period, the optimal scheme planning of changing coal into electric energy supply within K years can be obtained by taking the minimum overall cost as the optimal condition.
Positive effects of the invention
1. According to the invention, through analysis and trend prediction of the age structure of community crowds and the energy consumption habits of population of different ages, on the premise of meeting the community heating requirements within a plurality of years, the economy of construction investment and operation maintenance is realized, the coordination optimization of the requirements of governments, power enterprises and community heating residents is effectively promoted, and the problem that the energy consumption characteristics of communities are difficult to accurately match in the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme in the prior art is solved.
2. The invention can influence the winter heating demand of the community according to different age of community people. According to the age proportion of community groups in each year, calculating the maximum load required in K years corresponding to different coal-to-electricity technologies, and comparing the construction cost and the operation cost of various coal-to-electricity modes on the basis of meeting the recent maximum load, thereby obtaining a community coal-to-electricity heating scheme plan with higher economy.
Detailed Description
The following further details the examples of the invention: it should be emphasized that the embodiments described herein are illustrative rather than restrictive, and thus the present invention is not limited to the embodiments described in the detailed description, but other embodiments derived from the technical solutions of the present invention by those skilled in the art are also within the scope of the present invention.
A coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis comprises the following steps:
first, community population age composition analysis and prediction
(1) Firstly, a community living committee or a local place of dispatch is docked, and the current resident population information of the community is acquired:
① Total resident population N, population N of each age grouptPopulation Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtAnd the number of foreign migratory population in each age group
Wherein N istWherein t represents age, population number N of each age grouptCan be divided into: 0-18 years old in young children and school age population, 19-60 in working age population, 61 years old and older in retirement population; wherein the population Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtCan be divided into: number of female reproductive years
Number of born-one-fetus population of women of childbearing age
② obtaining local statistics bureau population mortality rate d of each agetNatural growth rate btSecond fetus will of birthtX represents year, t represents age, the number of persons of a given age in a given year in the community is calculated,
the number of people aged (t +1) in (x +1) years x the number of people aged t in x years (mortality rate in t years in 1-x years), i.e., the number of people aged t in 1-x years
With t1、t2Represents two specific ages, thus t in x years1Year-old-t2The population ratio of the aged is:
(2) respectively counting population proportions of infants and school age from x years, x +1 year, x +2 years to x + K years
Proportion of population in working phase
Proportion of retired population
As shown in Table 1 below
TABLE 1 population ratio of each age group
The heating requirement of the community in winter can be influenced by the different age of the community population. According to the age proportion of community groups in each year in the table, the maximum load required in K years corresponding to different coal-to-electricity technologies is calculated, and on the basis of meeting the recent maximum load, the construction cost and the operation cost of various coal-to-electricity modes are compared, so that the community coal-to-electricity heating scheme plan with higher economy is obtained.
Second step, aiming at the same community, the cost and expense of the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme under different heating modes
(1) The setting of each parameter in the scheme of changing coal into electricity energy supply,
the number of the community households M and the average heating season of the households are subsidized by electric quantity WSupplement deviceHeating season peak section electricity price DPeak(s)Heating season DGrainThe number of hours per valley period in heating season HGrain；
Indoor uniform heating power g taking air source heat pump as heating modeHeat pumpAverage heating power g for household by using directly-heated electric heater as heating modeElectric radiatorAverage heating power g for household by using heat accumulating electric boiler as heating modeElectric boiler-heatingAverage low-temperature operation power gElectric boiler-low temperature；
With reference to municipal heating regulations, the indoor design temperature is not lower than FHeating systemDEG C, outdoor temperature F of heating in winterOutdoorsAnd analyzing at 120 days in the heating season, and taking the temperature of each month into balanced consideration, wherein the seasonal load coefficient is gamma. For the family heating daily load coefficient in the infant period, the school age period and the retirement period, the coefficient is omegasFor the family heating daily load coefficient in the working period of working, the coefficient is omegal，
Distribution network construction investment s caused by newly increased unit heating load (kW)Distribution networkThe cost of the indoor wire reconstruction and the protection switch reconstruction is sIndoor lineThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of air source heat pump energy supply including purchase and installation of heat pump equipment and indoor water pipe network installation is sHeat pumpThe unit load (kW) construction cost of purchasing and installing the directly-heated electric heater energy supply equipment is sElectric radiatorThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of the heat accumulating type electric boiler including the purchase and installation of the electric boiler and the heat preservation water tank equipment, the installation of an indoor water pipe network and an outdoor heat distribution pipe network is sElectric boiler，
(2) Cost and expense calculation of each energy supply mode in coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme
Air source heat pump is used as community heating energy supply mode
Community heating operation load GHeat pump＝gHeat pump×γ×[M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs+M×P19-60×ωl]
Construction cost S of air source heat pump energy supply schemeHeat pump＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump+sDistribution network×GHeat pump+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump in heating season
Peak electric quantity of electric quantity patch
Electric quantity subsidy valley section electric quantity
Operating cost of using air source heat pump as energy supply mode
② comprehensive energy supply mode by air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater
The air source heat pump technology is adopted for heating residents in the infant period, the school age period and the retirement period who are at home for a long time; the residents who are nobody at home and normally work at daytime adopt the direct-heating electric heater to heat by using valley electricity, and need H outside valley periodSupplement deviceThe supplementary heat supply is carried out in the hour,
the air source heat pump and the directly-heated electric heater are comprehensively used for solving the problem of community heating, and the operation load of the community air source heat pump in the comprehensive energy supply scheme
GHeat pump supplement＝gHeat pump×γ×M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs
Operation load of community directly-heated electric heater in comprehensive energy supply scheme
GElectric radiator＝gElectric radiator×γ×M×P19-60×ωl
Maximum heating load of community in comprehensive scheme
GHeat pump-electric heater＝GHeat pump supplement+GElectric radiator
Construction cost of air source heat pump-directly-heated electric heater comprehensive energy supply scheme
SHeat pump-electric heater＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump supplement+sElectric radiator×GElectric radiator+sDistribution network×GHeat pump-electric heater+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of directly-heated electric heater part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of taking air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater as comprehensive energy supply mode
QHeat pump-electric heater＝QHeat pump supplement+QElectric radiator
Heating and energy supplying mode taking heat accumulating type electric boiler as community
Community heating maximum load powered by heat accumulating type electric boiler
GElectric boiler max＝gElectric boiler-heating×γ×M
Heat accumulating type electric boiler energy supply construction cost
SElectric boiler＝sElectric boiler×GElectric boiler max+sDistribution network×GElectric boiler max
Operating cost of heat accumulating type electric boiler in heating season
Heating power consumption for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Winter heating operation cost for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Heat accumulating type electric boiler heating power consumption for residents in working period of heating community
From low temperature operation time
And electric quantity in heating time period
Composition of
Heating operation cost of residents in community working period in winter
Operating cost with heat accumulating type electric heater as energy supply mode
Thirdly, obtaining a scheme plan for changing coal into electricity for energy supply within K years
In K years, the whole cost of taking the air source heat pump as an energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking an air source heat pump and a directly-heated electric heater as a comprehensive energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking a heat accumulating type electric boiler as an energy supply mode
The service life of different electric heating technologies is different, so that the product life and the product price of different products of the same electric heating technology are different, and by utilizing the planning method explained by the patent, the winter energy supply scheme which takes different electric heating technologies and even different types of products as core technologies within a certain age can be compared, the technical economy implemented in a community is optimized, and the overall cost of the scheme is the minimum.
Claims (1)
1. A coal-to-electricity energy supply planning method based on community age trend analysis is characterized by comprising the following steps:
first, community population age composition analysis and prediction
(1) Firstly, a community living committee or a local place of dispatch is docked, and the current resident population information of the community is acquired:
① Total resident population N, population N of each age grouptPopulation Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtAnd the number of foreign migratory population in each age group
Wherein N istWherein t represents age, population number N of each age grouptCan be divided into: 0-18 years old in young children and school age population, 19-60 in working age population, 61 years old and older in retirement population; wherein the population Z of women of childbearing age of 18-45 years oldtCan be divided into: number of female reproductive years
Number of born-one-fetus population of women of childbearing age
② obtaining local statistics bureau population mortality rate d of each agetNatural growth rate btSecond fetus will of birthtX represents year, t represents age, the number of persons of a given age in a given year in the community is calculated,
the number of people aged (t +1) in (x +1) years x the number of people aged t in x years (mortality rate in t years in 1-x years), i.e., the number of people aged t in 1-x years
With t1、t2Represents two specific ages, thus t in x years1Year-old-t2The population ratio of the aged is:
(2) respectively counting population proportions of infants and school age from x years, x +1 year, x +2 years to x + K years
Proportion of population in working phase
Proportion of retired population
Second step, aiming at the same community, the cost and expense of the coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme under different heating modes
(1) The setting of each parameter in the scheme of changing coal into electricity energy supply,
the number of the community households M and the average heating season of the households are subsidized by electric quantity WSupplement deviceHeating season peak section electricity price DPeak(s)Heating season DGrainThe number of hours per valley period in heating season HGrain；
Indoor uniform heating power g taking air source heat pump as heating modeHeat pumpAverage heating power g for household by using directly-heated electric heater as heating modeElectric radiatorAverage heating power g for household by using heat accumulating electric boiler as heating modeElectric boiler-heatingAverage low-temperature operation power gElectric boiler-low temperature；
With reference to municipal heating regulations, the indoor design temperature is not lower than FHeating systemDEG C, outdoor temperature F of heating in winterOutdoorsThe temperature of each month is considered in balance by analyzing 120 days in the heating season, the seasonal load coefficient is gamma, and the daily load coefficient for the family heating in the infant stage, the school age stage and the retirement stage is omegasFor the family heating daily load coefficient in the working period of working, the coefficient is omegal，
Distribution network construction investment s caused by newly increased unit heating load (kW)Distribution networkRelate to indoorsThe cost of the household transformation of the wire transformation and the protection switch transformation is sIndoor lineThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of air source heat pump energy supply including purchase and installation of heat pump equipment and indoor water pipe network installation is sHeat pumpThe unit load (kW) construction cost of purchasing and installing the directly-heated electric heater energy supply equipment is sElectric radiatorThe construction cost of unit load (kW) of the heat accumulating type electric boiler including the purchase and installation of the electric boiler and the heat preservation water tank equipment, the installation of an indoor water pipe network and an outdoor heat distribution pipe network is sElectric boiler，
(2) Cost and expense calculation of each energy supply mode in coal-to-electricity energy supply scheme
Air source heat pump is used as community heating energy supply mode
Community heating operation load GHeat pump＝gHeat pump×γ×[M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs+M×P19-60×ωl]
Construction cost S of air source heat pump energy supply schemeHeat pump＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump+sDistribution network×GHeat pump+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump in heating season
Peak electric quantity of electric quantity patch
Electric quantity subsidy valley section electric quantity
Operating cost of using air source heat pump as energy supply mode
② comprehensive energy supply mode by air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater
The air source heat pump technology is adopted for heating residents in the infant period, the school age period and the retirement period who are at home for a long time; for nobody at home and normal at daytimeThe residents in the class use the directly-heated electric heater to heat and warm by using valley electricity and need H outside the valley periodSupplement deviceThe supplementary heat supply is carried out in the hour,
the air source heat pump and the directly-heated electric heater are comprehensively used for solving the problem of community heating, and the operation load of the community air source heat pump in the comprehensive energy supply scheme
GHeat pump supplement＝gHeat pump×γ×M×(P0-18+P61-∞)×ωs
Operation load of community directly-heated electric heater in comprehensive energy supply scheme
GElectric radiator＝gElectric radiator×γ×M×P19-60×ωl
Maximum heating load of community in comprehensive scheme
GHeat pump-electric heater＝GHeat pump supplement+GElectric radiator
Construction cost of air source heat pump-directly-heated electric heater comprehensive energy supply scheme
SHeat pump-electric heater＝sHeat pump×GHeat pump supplement+sElectric radiator×GElectric radiator+sDistribution network×GHeat pump-electric heater+sIndoor line×M
Running cost of air source heat pump part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of directly-heated electric heater part in comprehensive energy supply scheme
Running cost of taking air source heat pump and directly-heated electric heater as comprehensive energy supply mode
QHeat pump-electric heater＝QHeat pump supplement+QElectric radiator
Heating and energy supplying mode taking heat accumulating type electric boiler as community
Community heating maximum load powered by heat accumulating type electric boiler
GElectric boiler max＝gElectric boiler-heating×γ×M
Heat accumulating type electric boiler energy supply construction cost
SElectric boiler＝sElectric boiler×GElectric boiler max+sDistribution network×GElectric boiler max
Operating cost of heat accumulating type electric boiler in heating season
Heating power consumption for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Winter heating operation cost for residents in infant period, school age period and retirement period of community
Heat accumulating type electric boiler heating power consumption for residents in working period of heating community
From low temperature operation time
And electric quantity in heating time period
Composition of
Heating operation cost of residents in community working period in winter
Operating cost with heat accumulating type electric heater as energy supply mode
Thirdly, obtaining a scheme plan for changing coal into electricity for energy supply within K years
In K years, the whole cost of taking the air source heat pump as an energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking an air source heat pump and a directly-heated electric heater as a comprehensive energy supply mode
In K years, the whole cost of taking a heat accumulating type electric boiler as an energy supply mode
Compared with winter energy supply schemes of different electric heating technologies within a certain period, the optimal scheme planning of changing coal into electric energy supply within K years can be obtained by taking the minimum overall cost as the optimal condition.
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| CN103982299A (en) * | 2014-04-02 | 2014-08-13 | 北京恩耐特分布能源技术有限公司 | Novel urban power supply system based on comprehensive utilization of resources, and its optimization method |
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