CN107832975A - Equipment comprehensive risk assessment method and device and power system - Google Patents

Equipment comprehensive risk assessment method and device and power system Download PDF

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CN107832975A
CN107832975A CN201711242446.5A CN201711242446A CN107832975A CN 107832975 A CN107832975 A CN 107832975A CN 201711242446 A CN201711242446 A CN 201711242446A CN 107832975 A CN107832975 A CN 107832975A
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factor
value
equipment
risk
represent
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袁耀
邓晓宇
温世杰
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Guangzhou Bailing Data Co ltd
China South Power Grid International Co ltd
Power Grid Technology Research Center of China Southern Power Grid Co Ltd
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Guangzhou Bailing Data Co ltd
China South Power Grid International Co ltd
Power Grid Technology Research Center of China Southern Power Grid Co Ltd
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    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a device for comprehensive risk assessment of equipment and an electric power system, relates to the technical field of equipment, and solves the problem that the prior art cannot give a risk assessment result of the equipment. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a state factor, an economic factor, an age factor, a utilization factor, a performance factor and an importance factor of the equipment; determining a comprehensive risk value of the equipment according to the state factor, the economic factor, the age factor, the utilization factor, the performance factor and the importance factor; determining the risk level of the equipment according to the comprehensive risk value; and generating a comprehensive risk evaluation result of the equipment according to the risk level. The embodiment of the invention is used for comprehensive risk assessment of equipment.

Description

A kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment, device and power system
Technical field
The present invention relates to equipment technical field, more particularly to a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment, device and power train System.
Background technology
Equipment risk evaluation refers to the risk for considering device security, economy and social influence etc., it is determined that Equipment Risk degree；Equipment is the hinge sections in power network, carries out the risk assessment work of equipment, can effectively reduce power equipment Influence of the malfunction and failure to power network, ensure that power grid security is reliably run, at the same can also be the operation of equipment, maintenance, maintenance, The decision-making of the production works such as experiment, overhaul technological transformation provides foundation；Therefore, the risk evaluation result for how providing equipment becomes one Individual urgent problem to be solved.
The content of the invention
Embodiments of the invention provide a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment, device and power system, solve existing Technology can not provide the problem of risk evaluation result of equipment.
To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention adopt the following technical scheme that：
First aspect, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment, including：Obtain the shape of equipment The state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor；Wherein, state factor is used for The health status of instruction equipment, economic sex factor be used for instruction equipment in the process of running the maintenance related to defect and failure into Originally, age factor is used for the operation time limit of instruction equipment, the utilization rate factor is used to indicate the damage by switch-time load being subject in equipment Degree, the performance factor of the degree of consumption, the degree for the loss being subject to by permanent load and/or the loss being subject to by switch motion are used It is used for the significance level of instruction equipment in instruction equipment reliability of operation, importance factor；According to state factor, economy because Son, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor, determine the integrated risk value of equipment；According to integrated risk Value, determine the risk class of equipment；According to risk class, the integrated risk assessment result of equipment is generated.
Optionally, this method also includes：Obtain the first weighted value of state factor, economic sex factor the second weighted value, 3rd weighted value of age factor, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and importance because 6th weighted value of son；According to state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance because Son, determining the integrated risk value of equipment includes：According to state factor, the first weighted value, economic sex factor, the second weighted value, year The age factor, the 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, the 4th weighted value, the performance factor, the 5th weighted value, importance factor and Six weighted values, risk formula is constructed, and the integrated risk value of equipment is determined according to risk formula；Wherein risk formula, including：
Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent the age because Son, A4Represent the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second power Weight values, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6The 6th weighted value is represented, And ω1+ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
Optionally, according to integrated risk value, the risk class of equipment is determined, including：Risk is searched according to integrated risk value Grade classification rule list, determine the risk class of equipment.
Optionally, the equipment includes：One or more in transformer and combined electrical apparatus.
Second aspect, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of equipment complex risk assessment device, including：Data acquisition list Member, for obtain state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and the importance of equipment because Son；Wherein, state factor is used for the health status of instruction equipment, and economic sex factor is used for instruction equipment in the process of running with lacking Fall into the maintenance cost related to failure, age factor is used for the operation time limit of instruction equipment, the utilization rate factor is used to indicate setting The degree of the standby loss being subject to by switch-time load, the degree for the loss being subject to by permanent load and/or it is subject to because of switch motion Degree, the performance factor of loss are used for instruction equipment reliability of operation, importance factor is used for the significance level of instruction equipment； Data processing unit, for obtained according to data capture unit state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, utilization rate because Son, the performance factor and importance factor, determine the integrated risk value of equipment；Data processing unit, it is additionally operable to according to integrated risk Value, determine the risk class of equipment；Data processing unit, it is additionally operable to according to risk class, the integrated risk for generating equipment is assessed As a result.
Optionally, data capture unit, it is additionally operable to obtain the second power of the first weighted value of state factor, economic sex factor Weight values, the 3rd weighted value of age factor, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and important 6th weighted value of sex factor；Data processing unit, specifically for obtained according to data capture unit state factor, first power Weight values, economic sex factor, the second weighted value, age factor, the 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, the 4th weighted value, performance because Son, the 5th weighted value, importance factor and the 6th weighted value, risk formula is constructed, and equipment is determined according to risk formula Integrated risk value；Wherein risk formula, including：
Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent the age because Son, A4Represent the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second power Weight values, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6The 6th weighted value is represented, And ω1+ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
Optionally, data processing unit, specifically for searching risk class table of classification rules according to integrated risk value, it is determined that The risk class of equipment.
The third aspect, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of power system, including any one that such as second aspect provides is set Standby integrated risk apparatus for evaluating.
Equipment complex methods of risk assessment, device and power system provided in an embodiment of the present invention, according to the state of equipment The factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor provide the current synthesis of the equipment Value-at-risk, and according to integrated risk value, determines the risk class of the equipment, and then according to risk class, generates the synthesis of equipment Risk evaluation result；Solves the problems, such as the risk evaluation result that prior art can not provide equipment.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing There is the required accompanying drawing used in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, can be with Other accompanying drawings are obtained according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a kind of schematic flow sheet for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide；
Fig. 2 is a kind of another schematic flow sheet for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide；
Fig. 3 is a kind of another schematic flow sheet for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide；
Fig. 4 is a kind of state factor index system knot for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Structure schematic diagram；
Fig. 5 is a kind of another state factor index for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Architectural schematic；
Fig. 6 is a kind of economy level of factor system for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Structural representation；
Fig. 7 is a kind of age factor index system knot for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Structure schematic diagram；
Fig. 8 is a kind of utilization rate level of factor system for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Structural representation；
Fig. 9 is that a kind of another utilization rate factor for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide refers to Mark system structural representation；
Figure 10 is a kind of importance factor index body for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Architecture schematic diagram；
Figure 11 is a kind of performance level of factor system for equipment complex methods of risk assessment that embodiments of the invention provide Structural representation；
Figure 12 is a kind of structural representation for equipment complex risk assessment device that embodiments of the invention provide.
Reference：
Equipment complex risk assessment device -10；
Data capture unit -101；Data processing unit -102.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete Site preparation describes, it is clear that described embodiment is only part of the embodiment of the present invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on Embodiment in the present invention, those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained every other under the premise of creative work is not made Embodiment, belong to the scope of protection of the invention.
Embodiment one, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment, include as shown in Figure 1：
S101, obtain the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and important Sex factor；Wherein, state factor is used for the health status of instruction equipment, and economic sex factor is used for instruction equipment in the process of running The maintenance cost related to defect and failure, age factor are used for the operation time limit of instruction equipment, the utilization rate factor is used to indicate Degree in the loss that equipment is subject to by switch-time load, the degree for the loss being subject to by permanent load and/or because switch motion by Degree, the performance factor for the loss arrived are used for instruction equipment reliability of operation, importance factor is used for the important of instruction equipment Degree.
It should be noted that in the application of reality, state factor reflects the health status of equipment to equipment Risk Influence；Exemplary, for transformer, state factor feature architecture is as shown in figure 4, wherein Fig. 4 is given in evaluation transformer Health status when corresponding index system structural representation (variable considered is needed during evaluation state factor)；For combination Appliance chamber is every state factor feature architecture is as shown in Figure 5：Wherein Fig. 5 give evaluate combined electrical apparatus health status when pair The index system structural representation (variable considered is needed when evaluating state factor) answered, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
By combining the power equipment health status aging formula of EA companies of Britain, each ring of life period of an equipment is considered Section, the health status score of equipment are calculated by following rule：
HI1=ACHI0eBT, formula one；
In formula one：HI1Represent health status score, HI0Original state score is represented, A represents original state modifying factor, B Aging factor is represented, C represents equipment operation modifying factor, and T represents the operation time limit.Specifically.Can root in the application of reality The factually situation setting HI on border1, A, B, C value, such as：A interval is [1,1.3], B interval for [0, 0.007], C interval is [1,2], HI0Equal to 5.
Using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method to HI1It is modified, due to X1Interval is (0,100), therefore shape State factor X1With HI1Corresponding relation it is as follows：
In formula two, X1Represent the revised state factor of the kind equipment, HI1minRepresent kind equipment HI in power network1Most Small value,；HI1maxRepresent kind equipment HI in power network1Maximum；Wherein, the state factor of the revised kind equipment includes： The state factor of revised transformer or the state factor at revised combined electrical apparatus interval.
In the application of reality, economic sex factor reflects equipment dimension related to defect and failure in equipment running process Protect cost；Exemplary, for transformer and combined electrical apparatus interval, economy State of factors feature architecture is as shown in fig. 6, wherein Fig. 6 gives in the economic sex factor of valuator device corresponding index system structural representation (when evaluating economic sex factor Need the variable considered), concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The calculation of initial value formula of the economic sex factor of equipment is as follows：
In formula three, y represents the initial value of economic sex factor, M0Represent that original value of the equipment is discounted to current value, y1Represent near N overhauls maintenance cost average value, y2Nearly N failure costs average value is represented, N is the integer more than 0.
Y is modified using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, economic sex factor is adapted to (0,100) area Between, obtain the economic sex factor of revised equipment：
In formula four, X2The economic sex factor of the revised kind equipment is represented, y represents the first of the kind equipment economy factor Initial value, ymaxMaximum in the initial value for the economic sex factor for obtaining at least two kind equipments in expression power network；yminRepresent The minimum value in the initial value of the economic sex factor of at least two kind equipments is obtained in power network；Wherein, revised such is set Standby economic sex factor includes：The economy at the economic sex factor of revised transformer or revised combined electrical apparatus interval because Son.
In the application of reality, age factor is the equipment Risk for describing a certain operation time limit residing for equipment, reflects the age Influence to equipment dependability；Exemplary, for transformer and combined electrical apparatus interval, age factor state feature architecture is as schemed Shown in 7, wherein Fig. 7 gives corresponding index system structural representation (the i.e. appraisal age in the age factor of valuator device The variable considered is needed during the factor), concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The calculation of initial value formula of age factor is as follows：
In formula five：Y represents the initial value of age factor, and BA represents the projected life of equipment, and t represents the equipment operation time limit, Work as t>During BA, Y takes 1.
To ensure that the value of age factor between (0,100), according to direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, is entered to Y Row amendment, obtains revised age factor：
In formula six, X3The age factor of the revised kind equipment is represented, Y represents the kind equipment age factor initial value, YmaxBe the age factor of at least two kind equipments obtained in power network initial value in maximum；YminIt is to be obtained in power network At least two kind equipments age factor initial value in minimum value；Wherein, the age of the revised kind equipment because Attached bag includes：The age factor of revised transformer or the age factor at revised combined electrical apparatus interval.
Reality application in, the utilization rate factor reflect equipment in actual motion because in short term and permanent load with act by The degree for the loss arrived；Exemplary, for transformer, utilization rate ratio characteristics system is as shown in figure 8, wherein Fig. 8 gives When evaluating the utilization rate factor of transformer, corresponding index system structural representation (needs to consider during the evaluation utilization rate factor Variable), concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The calculation of initial value formula of the transformer utilization factor factor is as follows：
In formula seven：Y1The initial value of ' expression utilization rate the factor, N value is 1,2,3 or 4, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, i is worked as Y ' during equal to 111Nearly H annuals load fluctuation rate is represented, the y ' when i is equal to 212Nearly H maximum loads rate average value is represented, works as i Y ' during equal to 313Nearly H annuals load factor is represented, the y ' when i is equal to 414Shunting switch switching factor is represented, H is whole more than 0 Number；Exemplary, when H is equal to 5, y '11Represent nearly 5 annual load fluctuation rate, y '12Represent that nearly 5 years maximum load rates are averaged Value, y '13Represent nearly 5 annual load factor, y '14Represent shunting switch switching factor；Specifically, can be by y '11Weight set For 0.3, by y '12Weight be arranged to 0.3, by y '13Weight be arranged to 0.2, by y '14Weight be arranged to 0.2.
Exemplary, for combined electrical apparatus interval, utilization rate ratio characteristics system is as shown in figure 9, wherein Fig. 9 gives Corresponding index system structural representation (needs during the evaluation utilization rate factor during utilization rate factor at evaluation combined electrical apparatus interval The variable of consideration), concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The calculation of initial value of the combined electrical apparatus interval utilization rate factor is as follows：
In formula eight：Y2The initial value of ' expression utilization rate the factor, N value is 1 or 2, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, when i is equal to 1 When y '21Nearly H breakers averagely regular event rate is represented, the y ' when i is equal to 222Nearly H disconnecting switch average operation rate is represented, H is the integer more than 0；Exemplary, when H is equal to 5, y '21Represent nearly 2 years breakers averagely regular event rate, y '22Represent Nearly 5 years disconnecting switch average operation rate.
Y using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method to equipment2' be modified, the utilization rate factor is adapted to (0, 100) section, the revised utilization rate factor is obtained：
In formula nine：X4Represent the utilization rate factor of the revised kind equipment, Y2' represent such utilization rate of equipment and installations factor at the beginning of Initial value, X4It is such utilization rate of equipment and installations factor correction value, Y2′minIt is the utilization rate of at least two kind equipments obtained in the whole network Minimum value in the initial value of the factor, Y2′maxIt is the initial of the utilization rate factor of at least two kind equipments obtained in the whole network Maximum in value；Wherein, the utilization rate factor of the revised kind equipment includes：The utilization rate factor of revised transformer Or the utilization rate factor at revised combined electrical apparatus interval.
In the application of reality, importance factor reflects the significance level of equipment；Exemplary, for transformer and group Appliance chamber is closed every importance factor feature architecture is as shown in Figure 10, and wherein Figure 10 gives the importance factor in valuator device When corresponding index system structural representation (variable considered is needed during evaluation importance factor), concrete implementation mode is such as Under：
The calculation of initial value formula of importance factor, it is as follows：
In formula ten, I represents the initial value of importance factor, and N value is 1,2,3 or 4, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, as i etc. I when 11The value of apparatus value (wherein, apparatus value represents that equipment original cost value is discounted to current value) is represented, as i etc. I when 22Expression voltage class (wherein, voltage class represents the operating voltage of equipment, such as：35kV, 110kV, 220kV or Value 500kV), the i when i is equal to 33Represent equipment status (wherein, equipment status according to where equipment transformer station in power network Importance division, load-center substation, important transformer station and general transformer station can be divided into, while consider according to transformer station's rack knot Whether structure meets the requirement of N-1 criterions, it is necessary to be dynamically determined every year according to the method for operation of the administrative power network of each power supply administration) take Value, the i when i is equal to 44Represent that reaching complexity (when wherein, reaching complexity expression equipment generation defect or failure, rescues Help the complexity that teams and groups reach equipment location；Be divided into difficult, general, easy three complexities) value；Exemplary, Can be by i1Weight be arranged to 0.2, by i2Weight be arranged to 0.2, by i3Weight be arranged to 0.4, by i4Value power Reset and be set to 0.2.
It should be noted that N-1 criterions refer to that any one element (such as circuit, is sent out in power system under normal operating mode Motor, transformer etc.) fault-free or for some reason barrier disconnect after, power system can keep stable operation and normal power supply, other elements Not overload, voltage and frequency are in allowed band.
The initial value of importance factor is adapted to by (0,100) section using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, obtained To revised importance factor：
In formula 11：X5The correction value of the kind equipment importance factor is represented, I represents the initial of such importance factor Value, IminRepresent that power network collects the minimum value of such importance factor initial value, ImaxIt is that such importance factor is initial in power network The maximum of value.
In the application of reality, the performance factor reflects equipment reliability of operation evaluation result；Exemplary, for setting Standby performance ratio characteristics system is as shown in figure 11, and wherein Figure 11 gives the corresponding index body in the performance factor of valuator device Architecture schematic diagram (needs the variable considered) when evaluating the performance factor, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The calculation of initial value formula of the performance factor of equipment is as follows：
In formula 12, Y " represents the initial value of the performance factor, and N value is 1,2,3,4 or 5, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, i is worked as Y during equal to 1 "1Nearly H outage for overhaulings coefficient average value is represented, the y " when i is equal to 22Represent that nearly H light maintenances stoppage in transit coefficient is averaged Value, the y " when i is equal to 33Represent that the nearly H first kind is non-and stop coefficient average value, the y " when i is equal to 44Represent that the nearly classes of H second are non-to stop Coefficient average value, the y " when i is equal to 55Represent that the 3rd class is non-and stop coefficient average value, H is the integer more than 0；Exemplary, work as H During equal to 5, y "1Represent nearly 5 years outage for overhaulings coefficient average value, y "2Represent nearly stoppage in transit coefficient average value of light maintenance in 5 years, y "3Represent Nearly 5 years first kind are non-to stop coefficient average value, y "4Represent that nearly 5 years the second classes are non-and stop coefficient average value, y "5Represent the 3rd class it is non-stop be Number average value；Specifically, can be by y "1Weight be arranged to 0.2, by y "2Weight be arranged to 0.2, y "3Weight be arranged to 0.2, y "4Weight be arranged to 0.2, y "5Weight be arranged to 0.2.
The initial value of the equipment performance factor is modified using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, after setting amendment Interval be (0,100), obtain the revised performance factor：
In formula 13, X6The performance factor of the revised kind equipment is represented, Y " represents that the kind equipment performance factor is initial Value, Y "maxBe at least two kind equipments obtained in power network the performance factor in maximum, Y "minIt is at least two obtained Minimum value in the performance factor of the platform kind equipment；Wherein, the performance factor of the revised kind equipment includes：Revised change The performance factor of depressor or the performance factor at revised combined electrical apparatus interval.
S102, according to state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance because Son, determine the integrated risk value of equipment.
S103, according to integrated risk value, determine the risk class of equipment.
S104, according to risk class, generate the integrated risk assessment result of equipment.
Optionally, embodiments of the invention as shown in Figure 2 provide a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment and also included：Obtain First weighted value of state factor, the second weighted value of economic sex factor, the 3rd weighted value of age factor, the utilization rate factor 4th weighted value, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and the 6th weighted value of importance factor；According to state factor, economy The factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor, determining the integrated risk value of equipment includes：According to shape The state factor, the first weighted value, economic sex factor, the second weighted value, age factor, the 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, the 4th power Weight values, the performance factor, the 5th weighted value, importance factor and the 6th weighted value, risk formula is constructed, and according to risk formula Determine the integrated risk value of equipment；Wherein risk formula, including：
Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent the age because Son, A4Represent the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second power Weight values, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6The 6th weighted value is represented, And ω1+ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
It should be noted that the first weighted value of state factor, the second of economic sex factor are obtained in the application of reality Weighted value, the 3rd weighted value of age factor, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and again Wanting the 6th weighted value of sex factor includes：Integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is searched according to state factor, determines state First weighted value of the factor；Integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is searched according to economic sex factor, determines economic sex factor The second weighted value；Integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is searched according to age factor, determines the 3rd power of age factor Weight values；Integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is searched according to the utilization rate factor, determines the use of the 4th weighted value of the rate factor； Integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is searched according to the performance factor, determines the 5th weighted value of the performance factor；According to important Sex factor searches integrated risk factor of a model weight value table, determines the 6th weighted value of importance factor.
Specifically, integrated risk factor of a model weight value table according to historical data synthesis provide, it is exemplary with First weighted value of state factor is 0.30, the second weighted value of economic sex factor is 0.1, the 3rd weighted value of age factor is 0.15th, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor is 0.1, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor is 0.25 and importance factor the 6th Weighted value illustrates exemplified by being 0.1, and its integrated risk factor of a model weight value table is as shown in table 1：
Factor pattern Weights omegai
State factor 0.30
Economic sex factor 0.10
Age factor 0.15
The utilization rate factor 0.10
Importance factor 0.25
The performance factor 0.10
The integrated risk factor of a model weight value table of table 1
Optionally, embodiments of the invention as shown in Figure 3 are provided in a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment according to synthesis Value-at-risk, the risk class of equipment is determined, including：Risk class table of classification rules is searched according to integrated risk value, determines equipment Risk class.
It should be noted that the integrated risk value span tried to achieve according to risk formula between (0,100), refers to 《Southern Power Grid Company power transmission and transformation primary equipment risk assessment directive/guide》, the influence of its corresponding risk and the extent of injury press value-at-risk Size makes a distinction；Exemplary, 5 risk classes are divided into risk class, I grade is highest risk class in same category of device, V grade is priming the pump rank, exemplified by illustrate, each grade classification rule is as shown in table 2：
The risk class table of classification rules of table 2
So as to by assessing the risk in each dimension of equipment and its integrated risk, fully understand and grasp equipment operation Existing risk, to realize that equipment Risk management provides reference frame.Single device risk preliminary review comment template is as shown in table 3：
The risk assessment opinion template of the single device of table 3
Optionally, embodiments of the invention provide the equipment in a kind of equipment complex methods of risk assessment and included：Transformer With the one or more in combined electrical apparatus.
Equipment complex methods of risk assessment provided in an embodiment of the present invention, according to the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, Age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor provide the current integrated risk value of the equipment, and according to synthesis Value-at-risk, determines the risk class of the equipment, and then according to risk class, generates the integrated risk assessment result of equipment；Solve The problem of prior art can not provide the risk evaluation result of equipment.
Second aspect, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of equipment complex risk assessment device 10, include as shown in figure 12：
Data capture unit 101, for obtain the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, age factor, utilization rate because Son, the performance factor and importance factor；Wherein, state factor is used for the health status of instruction equipment, and economic sex factor is used to refer to Show equipment in the process of running the maintenance cost related to defect and failure, age factor be used for instruction equipment the operation time limit, The degree for the loss that the utilization rate factor is used to indicate by switch-time load to be subject in equipment, the degree for the loss being subject to by permanent load And/or degree, the performance factor of the loss being subject to by switch motion are used for instruction equipment reliability of operation, importance factor is used In the significance level of instruction equipment.
Data processing unit 102, for the state factor, economic sex factor, age obtained according to data capture unit 101 The factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor, determine the integrated risk value of equipment.
Data processing unit 102, it is additionally operable to according to integrated risk value, determines the risk class of equipment.
Data processing unit 102, it is additionally operable to according to risk class, generates the integrated risk assessment result of equipment.
Optionally, data capture unit 101, it is additionally operable to obtain the first weighted value of state factor, the of economic sex factor Two weighted values, the 3rd weighted value of age factor, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the performance factor the 5th weighted value and 6th weighted value of importance factor；Data processing unit 102, specifically for the state obtained according to data capture unit 101 The factor, the first weighted value, economic sex factor, the second weighted value, age factor, the 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, the 4th weight Value, the performance factor, the 5th weighted value, importance factor and the 6th weighted value, risk formula is constructed, and it is true according to risk formula The integrated risk value of locking equipment；Wherein risk formula, including：
Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent the age because Son, A4Represent the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second power Weight values, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6The 6th weighted value is represented, And ω1+ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
Optionally, data processing unit 102, specifically for searching risk class table of classification rules according to integrated risk value, Determine the risk class of equipment.
Equipment complex risk assessment device provided in an embodiment of the present invention, according to the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, Age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and importance factor provide the current integrated risk value of the equipment, and according to synthesis Value-at-risk, determines the risk class of the equipment, and then according to risk class, generates the integrated risk assessment result of equipment；Solve The problem of prior art can not provide the risk evaluation result of equipment.
The third aspect, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of power system, including any one that such as embodiment two provides is set Standby integrated risk apparatus for evaluating 10.Specific equipment complex risk assessment device may refer to the phase in said apparatus embodiment two Description is closed, here is omitted.
It should be noted that in the application of reality grid company asset of equipments is distributed more widely, management level is more；Its In, multiple net companies are included in power system, multiple subsidiaries are included in each net company, are included multiplely in each subsidiary Office of city, each office of districts and cities includes multiple transformer stations, so as to form multiple hierarchical structures.It is adapted with this feature, is entering sector-style Danger management when, grid company should use " hierarchical layered " Risk Management Model, from transformer station, office of districts and cities, subsidiary of province and The different aspects such as net company consider the risk management and control problem of equipment, contribute to the manager of different levels to take targetedly risk Control measures, the generation of anticipating risk accident；And the equipment complex risk assessment device that embodiments of the invention provide can be counted The integrated risk value of different levels constituent parts is calculated, so as to take targetedly risk management to arrange for the manager of different levels Offer reference frame is provided.
Exemplary, when carrying out integrated risk assessment to transformer station, it is necessary to according to the state factor of transformer station, economy The factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, importance factor and the performance factor provide the integrated risk assessment result of transformer station, Concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The state factor of transformer station, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, importance factor and the performance factor Weighted average is tried to achieve, and calculation formula is as follows：
In formula 14：RISK represents the integrated risk value of transformer station, and N value is 1,2,3,4,5 or 6, i ∈ [1, N]；Its In, the x when i is equal to 11 (1)Represent state factor, ω '1Represent the first weighted value of state factor；The x when i is equal to 22 (1)Represent Economic sex factor, ω '2Represent the second weighted value of economic sex factor；The x when i is equal to 33 (1)Represent age factor, ω '3Represent 3rd weighted value of age factor；The x when i is equal to 44 (1)Represent the utilization rate factor, ω '4Represent the 4th weight of the utilization rate factor Value；The x when i is equal to 55 (1)Represent the performance factor, ω '5Represent the 5th weighted value of the performance factor；The x when i is equal to 66 (1)Represent Importance factor, ω '6Represent the 6th weighted value of importance factor, and ω '1+ω′2+ω′3+ω′4+ω′5+ω′6=1.
Other weights omega 'iValue weight value corresponding with single device is consistent, referring to table 1.
The risk class criteria for classification of office of districts and cities integrated risk is consistent with single device risk class criteria for classification, reference table 2。
It is while the integrated risk of each transformer station is seen, also when the risk of different substation is analyzed It may compare difference of its risk class for the equipment number of units of I grade, II grade (i.e. great and above risk), design synthesis risk, again Big and above risk equipment number of units two indices the moment of distribution systems of battle formations are as shown in table 4 below：
The risk class division table of the transformer station of table 4
Wherein, the coding of cell is bigger, should more pay attention to.
Specifically, transformer station's integrated risk comments template is as shown in table 5.
The transformer station's integrated risk comments template of table 5
It is specifically, each in the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor and the performance factor Factor reflection be single device operating index it is horizontal, therefore in transformer station's level this five factors per the reflection of the class factor per class because The sub average value in the transformer station, the specific formula of its value are as follows：
In formula 15：X(1) kThe value of k-th of factor of transformer station is represented, m represents the number of units of transformer in transformer station, n tables Show the number at combined electrical apparatus interval in transformer station, XikRepresent the value of i-th transformer, k-th of factor, XjkRepresent j-th group Appliance chamber is closed every the value of k-th of factor, k value is 1,2,3,4 or 5, i ∈ [1, m], j ∈ [1, n]；Wherein, when k is equal to 1 When X(1) 1Represent the value of the state factor of transformer station, Xi1Represent the value of the state factor of i-th transformer, Xj1Represent jth The value of the state factor at platform combined electrical apparatus interval；The X when k is equal to 2(1) 2Represent the value of the economic sex factor of transformer station, Xi2 Represent the value of the economic sex factor of i-th transformer, Xj2Represent the value of the economic sex factor at jth platform combined electrical apparatus interval； The X when k is equal to 3(1) 3Represent the value of the age factor of transformer station, Xi3Represent the value of the age factor of i-th transformer, Xj3 Represent the value of the age factor at jth platform combined electrical apparatus interval；The X when k is equal to 4(1) 4Represent the utilization rate factor of transformer station Value, Xi4Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of i-th transformer, Xj4Represent the utilization rate factor at jth platform combined electrical apparatus interval Value；The X when k is equal to 5(1) 5Represent the value of the performance factor of transformer station, Xi5Represent the performance factor of i-th transformer Value, Xj5Represent the value of the performance factor at jth platform combined electrical apparatus interval；Exemplary, X(1) kInterval be (0, 100)。
In the application of reality, transformer station's importance factor is important with reference to separate unit importance factor value rule, transformer station Sex factor is also the comprehensive value at transformer and combined electrical apparatus interval, transformer substation voltage grade, transformer station status from transformer station Complexity four dimensions, which are reached, with transformer station designs its value.
Transformer station's importance factor calculation formula, such as following formula：
In formula 16：I represents the initial value of the importance factor of transformer station, IiRepresent importance factor value, wiRepresent Ii Weight, N value is 1,2,3 or 4, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, the I when i is equal to 11Represent taking for the comprehensive value of transformer station Value, w1Represent I1Weight；The I when i is equal to 22Represent the value of the voltage class of transformer station, w2Represent I2Weight；When i is equal to I when 33Represent the value of the status of transformer station, w3Represent I3Weight；The I when i is equal to 44Represent that transformer station reaches complexity Value, w3Represent I4Weight；Exemplary, can be by wiValue for 0.2, by w2Value be 0.2, by w3Value be 0.4, by w4Value for 0.2, I ∈ (0.14,1].
The initial value of importance factor is adapted to by (0,100) section using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, obtained To final importance factor：
In formula：X(1) 6It is the importance factor of revised transformer station, I is the initial value of transformer station's importance factor, Imin Be obtain at least two transformer stations importance factor initial value in minimum value, ImaxIt is to obtain at least two transformer stations Maximum in the initial value of importance factor.
In the application of reality, when evaluating transformer station comprehensive value and refer to value, it is necessary to according to actual situation and Historical data is calculated, and concrete implementation mode is as follows：
Transformer station includes transformer and the kind equipment of combined electrical apparatus interval two, and transformer station's comprehensive value is calculated according to historical data When device type weight reference value it is as shown in table 6：
Device type Weight
Transformer 0.9
Combined electrical apparatus interval 0.8
The transformer station's comprehensive value device type weight reference value of table 6
According to above various kinds of equipment type weight value and each factor value formula of single device risk, transformer station is designed Value rule per the class factor.
Consider that transformer is different with the function status at combined electrical apparatus interval in transformer station, it is worth weight and also differed, and joins The Risk rated ratio of every kind equipment is examined, design transformer station comprehensive value value formula is as follows：
In formula：I1The comprehensive value of transformer station is represented, m represents the number of units of transformer in transformer station, and n represents group in transformer station Close appliance chamber every number of units, I1iRepresent the comprehensive value of i-th transformer；I1jRepresent the synthesis valency at jth platform combined electrical apparatus interval Value；The wherein weight of the comprehensive value of 0.9 indication transformer, 0.8 represents the weight of the comprehensive value at combined electrical apparatus interval.
According to the integrated cost distribution situation of the kind equipment of transformer station two, transformer station's comprehensive value is divided into 10 ranks, I1Span is 0.1~1.As shown in table 7.
The transformer station's comprehensive value of table 7 refers to value
Specifically, when evaluating transformer substation voltage grade and referring to value, it is necessary to according to actual situation and historical data Calculated, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The voltage class importance value average value of all transformer and combined electrical apparatus spacing devices of transformer station is used as should The importance value of transformer station.
Specifically, when evaluating transformer station status and referring to value, it is necessary to be carried out according to the situation of reality and historical data Calculate, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
In the transformer station all transformer and combined electrical apparatus spacing devices bit significance value average value as power transformation Stand the importance value of status.
Specifically, have when evaluation reaches complexity, it is necessary to be calculated according to the situation of reality and historical data The implementation of body is as follows：
All transformer and combined electrical apparatus intervals reach the average value work of the importance value of complexity in the transformer station For the arrival complexity importance value of transformer station.
, it is necessary to according to the age factor of office of districts and cities, state when the integrated risk of office of progress districts and cities is assessed in actual applications The factor, economic sex factor, the utilization rate factor, importance factor and the performance factor provide integrated risk assessment result, wherein Office of city includes：Dongguan power supply administration, Foshan power supply administration, Jiangmen power supply administration, Huizhou power supply administration, power supply administration of Qingyuan City, Zhong Shan power supply administrations, plum State power supply administration, Shaoguan power supply administration, Zhaoqing power supply administration, Shantou power supply administration, Zhuhai power supply administration, Zhanjiang power supply administration, Maoming power supply administration, river One in source power supply administration, Jieyang power supply administration, Yangjiang power supply administration, Chaozhou power supply administration, Shanwei power supply administration, Yunfu power supply administration or more , concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The integrated risk of office of districts and cities is by the age factor of office of districts and cities, state factor, economic sex factor, the utilization rate factor, again Sex factor and the weighted average of the performance factor is wanted to try to achieve, its formula is as follows：
In formula 19：The integrated risk value of office of RISK ' expressions districts and cities,Represent the age factor of districts and cities offices, state because Sub, economic sex factor, the utilization rate factor, the value of importance factor or the performance factor, ω "iRepresentWeight, N's takes It is worth for 1,2,3,4,5 or 6, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, the x when i is equal to 11 (2)Represent the value of the state factor of office of districts and cities, ω "1Table Show x1 (2)The first weighted value；The x when i is equal to 22 (2)Represent the value of the economic sex factor of office of districts and cities, ω "2Represent x2 (2) Two weighted values；The x when i is equal to 33 (2)Represent the value of the age factor of office of districts and cities, ω "3Represent x3 (2)The 3rd weighted value；Work as i X during equal to 44 (2)Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of office of districts and cities, ω "4Represent x4(2)The 4th weighted value；The x when i is equal to 55 (2)Represent the value of the performance factor of office of districts and cities, ω "5Represent x5 (2)The 5th weighted value；The x when i is equal to 66 (2)Represent office of districts and cities Importance factor value, ω "6Represent x2 (2)The 6th weighted value, and ω '1+ω′2+ω′3+ω′4+ω′5+ω′6= 1。
Other weights omegaiValue weight value corresponding with single device is consistent, referring to table 1.
The risk class criteria for classification of office of districts and cities integrated risk is consistent with single device risk class criteria for classification, reference table 2。
It is while the integrated risk of each office of districts and cities is seen, also when the risk of different offices of districts and cities is analyzed May compare its risk class for I grade, II grade (i.e. great and above risk) transformer station ratio difference, design synthesis risk, Great and above risk transformer station ratio two indices the moment of distribution systems of battle formations are as shown in table 8：
Office of the districts and cities rank risk division table of table 8
Wherein, the coding of cell is bigger, should more pay attention to.
Office of districts and cities integrated risk comments template is as shown in table 9.
Office of the districts and cities integrated risk comments template of table 9
Specifically, the state factor of office of districts and cities level, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor and the performance factor Average value of the districts and cities' intra-office different substation per the class factor is reflected in, its specific value formula is as follows：
In formula 20：Represent the age factor of districts and cities offices, state factor, economic sex factor, the utilization rate factor or The value of the performance factor, X(1) ikRepresent the age factor of i-th of transformer station, state factor, economic sex factor, the utilization rate factor, Or the value of the performance factor, n represent the number of Ju Zhong transformer stations of districts and cities, k value is 1,2,3,4 or 5, i ∈ [1, n]； Wherein, the X when k is equal to 1(2) 1Represent the value of the age factor of office of districts and cities, X(1) i1Represent the age factor of i-th of transformer station Value；The X when k is equal to 2(2) 2Represent the value of the state factor of office of districts and cities, X(1) i2Represent the state factor of i-th of transformer station Value；The X when k is equal to 3(2) 3Represent the value of the economic sex factor of office of districts and cities, X(1) i3Represent the economy of i-th of transformer station because The value of son；The X when k is equal to 4(2) 4Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of office of districts and cities, X(1) i4Represent the utilization of i-th of transformer station The value of the rate factor；The X when k is equal to 5(2) 5Represent the value of the performance factor of office of districts and cities, X(1) i5Represent the achievement of i-th of transformer station Imitate the value of the factor；Wherein, X(2) kInterval be (0,100).
Specifically, office of districts and cities importance factor is with reference to transformer station's rank importance factor value rule, office of districts and cities importance The factor is also that the comprehensive value from office of districts and cities, voltage class, status and arrival complexity four dimensions design its value.
Wherein voltage class, status and arrival complexity take being averaged for districts and cities' these three indexs of intra-office different substation Value.Office of districts and cities comprehensive value is the sum of all transformer station's comprehensive values of the office of districts and cities, its corresponding different section importance value As shown in table 10：
Office of the districts and cities comprehensive value of table 10 refers to value
The calculation formula of office of districts and cities importance value is consistent with transformer station, i.e.,：
The initial value of importance factor is adapted to by (0,100) section using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, obtained It is as follows to final importance factor：
In formula 22：X(2) 6The importance factor of revised office of districts and cities is represented, I represents office of districts and cities importance factor Initial value, IminRepresent to obtain the minimum value in the initial value of the importance factor of at least two offices of districts and cities, ImaxRepresent to obtain extremely Maximum in the initial value of the importance factor of office of Shao Liangge districts and cities.
In the application of reality, when evaluating the integrated risk of subsidiary, it is necessary to according to actual situation and history number According to being calculated, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The integrated risk of subsidiary is by the state factor of subsidiary, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, again The property the wanted weighted sum performance factor is averagely tried to achieve.Its formula is as follows：
In formula 23：RISK " represents the integrated risk value of transformer station,Represent state factor, the economy of subsidiary The factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the value of the performance factor or importance factor, ω "iRepresentWeight, N's takes It is worth for 1,2,3,4,5 or 6, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, the x when i is equal to 11 (3)Represent the value of the state factor of subsidiary, ω "1Table Show x1 (3)The first weighted value；The x when i is equal to 22 (3)Represent the value of the economic sex factor of subsidiary, ω "2Represent x2 (3) Two weighted values；The x when i is equal to 33 (3)Represent the value of the age factor of subsidiary, ω "3Represent x3 (3)The 3rd weighted value；Work as i X during equal to 44 (3)Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of subsidiary, ω "4Represent x4 (3)The 4th weighted value；The x when i is equal to 55 (3)Represent the value of the performance factor of subsidiary, ω "5Represent x5 (3)The 5th weighted value；The x when i is equal to 66 (3)Represent subsidiary Importance factor value, ω "6Represent x6 (3)The 6th weighted value, and ω "1+ω″2+ω″3+ω″4+ω″5+ω″6= 1。
Other weights omegaiValue weight value corresponding with single device is consistent, referring to table 1.
The risk class criteria for classification of subsidiary's integrated risk is consistent with single device risk class criteria for classification, reference table 2.
When the risk of different subsidiaries is analyzed, not only it can be seen that the integrated risk of each subsidiary, also comparable It is great office of districts and cities number compared with its risk class, and by the distribution of integrated risk and office of material risk districts and cities number two indices It is divided into four quadrants, the design rule of each quadrant is as follows：
It is while the integrated risk of each subsidiary is seen, also when the risk of different subsidiaries is analyzed May compare its risk class for I grade, II grade (i.e. great and above risk) office of districts and cities number difference, design synthesis risk, Great and office of above risk districts and cities number two indices the moment of distribution systems of battle formations are as shown in table 11：
The subsidiary's risk class division table of table 11
Wherein, the coding of cell is bigger, should more pay attention to.
Subsidiary's integrated risk comments template is as shown in table 9.
Specifically, the state factor of subsidiary, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor and the reflection of the performance factor It is as follows per the average value of the class factor different each factors of office of districts and cities in the subsidiary, its specific value formula：
In formula 24：Represent the state factor of subsidiary, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor or The value of person's performance factor, X(2) ikRepresent the state factor of i-th of office of districts and cities, economic sex factor, age factor, utilization rate because The value of son or the performance factor, n represent the number of office of districts and cities in subsidiary, k value for 1,2,3,4 or 5, i ∈ [1, n]；Wherein, the X when k is equal to 11 (3)Represent the value of the state factor of subsidiary, Xi1Represent the state factor of i-th of office of districts and cities Value；The X when k is equal to 22 (3)Represent the value of the economic sex factor of subsidiary, Xi2Represent the economy of i-th of office of districts and cities because The value of son；The X when k is equal to 33 (3)Represent the value of the age factor of subsidiary, Xi3Represent the age factor of i-th of office of districts and cities Value；The X when k is equal to 44 (3)Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of subsidiary, Xi4Represent the utilization rate of i-th of office of districts and cities because The value of son；The X when k is equal to 55 (3)Represent the value of the performance factor of subsidiary, Xi5Represent the performance factor of i-th of office of districts and cities Value；Wherein, X(3) kInterval be (0,100).
Specific subsidiary obtains importance factor value with reference to office of districts and cities rank importance factor value rule, from subsidiary Comprehensive value, voltage class, status and arrival complexity four dimensions then design its value.
Subsidiary's level voltage grade, status and reach complexity value be in the subsidiary all offices of districts and cities these three The average value of index.Subsidiary's comprehensive value is the sum of all office of districts and cities comprehensive values of the subsidiary, its corresponding different section Importance value is as shown in table 12 below：
The subsidiary's comprehensive value of table 12 refers to value
Subsidiary's importance value formula is consistent with transformer station, i.e.,：
Importance factor initial value is adapted to by (0,100) section using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, obtained Final importance factor：
In formula 26：X(3) 6Revised subsidiary's importance factor is represented, I represents the first of subsidiary's importance factor Initial value, IminRepresent to obtain the minimum value in the initial value of the importance factor of at least two subsidiaries, ImaxRepresent to obtain at least Maximum in the initial value of the importance factor of Liang Ge subsidiaries.
In the application of reality, when evaluating the integrated risk of net company, it is necessary to according to actual situation and history number According to being calculated, concrete implementation mode is as follows：
The integrated risk of net company by net company state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, achievement The effect factor and importance factor weighted average are tried to achieve.Its formula is as follows
In formula 27：RISK " ' represents the integrated risk value of transformer station,Represent state factor, the economy of net company Sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the value of the performance factor or importance factor, ω "iRepresentWeight, N's Value is 1,2,3,4,5 or 6, i ∈ [1, N]；Wherein, the x when i is equal to 11 (4)The value of the state factor of transformer station is represented, ω″′1Represent x1 (4)First weighted value；The x when i is equal to 22 (4)Represent the value of the economic sex factor of transformer station, ω " '2Represent x2 (4)The second weighted value；The x when i is equal to 33 (4)Represent the value of the age factor of transformer station, ω " '3Represent x3 (4)The 3rd power Weight values；The x when i is equal to 44 (4)Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of transformer station, ω " '4Represent x4 (4)The 4th weighted value；Work as i X during equal to 55 (4)Represent the value of the performance factor of transformer station, ω " '5Represent x5 (4)The 5th weighted value；The x when i is equal to 66 (4) Represent the value of the importance factor of transformer station, ω " '6Represent x6 (4)The 6th weighted value, and ω " '1+ω″′2+ω″′3+ ω″′4+ω″′5+ω″′6=1.
Other weights omegaiValue weight value corresponding with single device is consistent, referring to table 1.
The risk class criteria for classification of net company integrated risk is consistent with single device risk class criteria for classification, reference table 2。
Net company integrated risk comments template is as shown in table 9.
Specifically, the state factor of net company, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor and the reflection of the performance factor It is as follows per the average value of the class factor different each factors of subsidiary in the whole network, its specific value formula：
In formula 28：Represent the state factor of net company, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor or The value of person's performance factor, X(3) ikRepresent the state factor of i-th of subsidiary, economic sex factor, age factor, utilization rate because The value of son or the performance factor, n represent the number of the subsidiary included in net company, and k value is 1,2,3,4 or 5, i ∈ [1, n]；Wherein, the X when k is equal to 11 (4)Represent the value of the state factor of net company, X(3) i1Represent the shape of i-th of subsidiary The value of the state factor；The X when k is equal to 22 (4)Represent the value of the economic sex factor of net company, X(3) i2Represent i-th subsidiary The value of economic sex factor；The X when k is equal to 33 (4)Represent the value of the age factor of net company, X(3) i3Represent i-th of subsidiary Age factor value；The X when k is equal to 44 (4)Represent the value of the utilization rate factor of net company, X(3) i4Represent that i-th of son is public The value of the utilization rate factor of department；The X when k is equal to 55 (4)Represent the value of the performance factor of net company, X(3) i5Represent i-th of son The value of the performance factor of company；Wherein, X(4) kInterval be [0,100].
Specifically, net company's rank importance factor value is regular with reference to subsidiary's rank importance factor value, from net Comprehensive value, voltage class, status and the arrival complexity four dimensions of company design its value.
Voltage class, status and the arrival complexity importance value for wherein netting company are each branch company index value Average value.The comprehensive value of net company is each branch company's comprehensive value sum, and importance value corresponding to its different section is such as Shown in table 13 below：
Net company comprehensive value Span I1
Less than 15000000000 yuan 0.1
Less than more than 15000000000 yuan 20,000,000,000 yuan 0.2
Less than more than 20000000000 yuan 25,000,000,000 yuan 0.3
Less than more than 25000000000 yuan 30,000,000,000 yuan 0.4
Less than more than 30000000000 yuan 35,000,000,000 yuan 0.5
Less than more than 35000000000 yuan 40,000,000,000 yuan 0.6
Less than more than 40000000000 yuan 45,000,000,000 yuan 0.7
Less than more than 45000000000 yuan 50,000,000,000 yuan 0.8
Less than more than 50000000000 yuan 55,000,000,000 yuan 0.9
More than 55000000000 yuan 1.0
Table 13 nets company's comprehensive value and refers to value
Net company importance value formula is consistent with transformer station, i.e.,：
Importance factor initial value is adapted to by (0,100) section using direct index linear pattern nondimensionalization method, obtained Revised importance factor：
In formula 30：X(4) 6The importance factor of revised net company is represented, I represents the first of net company importance factor Initial value, IminRepresent to obtain the minimum value in the initial value of the importance factor of at least two net companies, ImaxTable obtains at least two Maximum in the initial value of the importance factor of Ge Wang companies.
The foregoing is only a specific embodiment of the invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, any Those familiar with the art the invention discloses technical scope in, change or replacement can be readily occurred in, should all be contained Cover within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be based on the protection scope of the described claims.

Claims (8)

  1. A kind of 1. equipment complex methods of risk assessment, it is characterised in that including：
    Obtain state factor, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and the importance factor of equipment；Its In, the state factor is used for the health status for indicating the equipment, and the economic sex factor is used to indicate that the equipment is being transported The maintenance cost related to defect and failure, the age factor are used for the operation time limit, the institute for indicating the equipment during row State the utilization rate factor be used for indicate the degree of loss being subject in the equipment by switch-time load, the loss that is subject to by permanent load Degree and/or degree, the performance factor of the loss being subject to by switch motion be used to indicate the reliable of the equipment operation Property, the importance factor is used to indicate the significance level of the equipment；
    According to the state factor, the economic sex factor, the age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor With the importance factor, the integrated risk value of the equipment is determined；
    According to the integrated risk value, the risk class of the equipment is determined；
    According to the risk class, the integrated risk assessment result of the equipment is generated.
  2. 2. equipment complex methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that methods described also includes：Obtain First weighted value of the state factor, the second weighted value of the economic sex factor, the age factor the 3rd weighted value, 6th power of the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and the importance factor Weight values；
    According to the state factor, the economic sex factor, the age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor With the importance factor, determining the integrated risk value of the equipment includes：
    According to the state factor, first weighted value, the economic sex factor, second weighted value, the age because Sub, described 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, the 4th weighted value, the performance factor, the 5th weighted value, The importance factor and the 6th weighted value, risk formula is constructed, and the equipment is determined according to the risk formula Integrated risk value；Wherein described risk formula, including：
    Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
    Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent age factor, A4Table Show the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second weighted value, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6Represent the 6th weighted value, and ω1 +ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
  3. 3. equipment complex methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described according to the integrated risk Value, the risk class of the equipment is determined, including：
    Risk class table of classification rules is searched according to the integrated risk value, determines the risk class of the equipment.
  4. 4. equipment complex methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the equipment includes：Transformer With the one or more in combined electrical apparatus.
  5. A kind of 5. equipment complex risk assessment device, it is characterised in that including：
    Data capture unit, for obtain the state factor of equipment, economic sex factor, age factor, the utilization rate factor, performance because Son and importance factor；Wherein, the state factor is used for the health status for indicating the equipment, and the economic sex factor is used for Indicate that the maintenance cost related to defect and failure, the age factor are used to indicate described set the equipment in the process of running The degree for the loss that the standby operation time limit, the utilization rate factor are used to indicate by switch-time load to be subject in the equipment, because of length The degree of loss that phase load is subject to and/or degree, the performance factor of the loss being subject to by switch motion are used to indicate institute State the significance level of equipment reliability of operation, the importance factor for indicating the equipment；
    Data processing unit, for the state factor, the economic sex factor, institute obtained according to the data capture unit Age factor, the utilization rate factor, the performance factor and the importance factor are stated, determines the integrated risk of the equipment Value；
    The data processing unit, it is additionally operable to, according to the integrated risk value, determine the risk class of the equipment；
    The data processing unit, it is additionally operable to, according to the risk class, generate the integrated risk assessment result of the equipment.
  6. 6. equipment complex risk assessment device according to claim 5, it is characterised in that the data capture unit, also For obtain the first weighted value of the state factor, the second weighted value of the economic sex factor, the age factor Three weighted values, the 4th weighted value of the utilization rate factor, the 5th weighted value of the performance factor and the importance because 6th weighted value of son；
    The data processing unit, specifically for obtained according to data capture unit the state factor, first weight Value, the economic sex factor, second weighted value, the age factor, the 3rd weighted value, the utilization rate factor, 4th weighted value, the performance factor, the 5th weighted value, the importance factor and the 6th weighted value, Risk formula is constructed, and the integrated risk value of the equipment is determined according to the risk formula；Wherein described risk formula, bag Include：
    Risk=A1×ω1+A2×ω2+A3×ω3+A4×ω4+A5×ω5+A6×ω6；
    Wherein, Risk represents integrated risk value, A1Represent state factor, A2Represent economic sex factor, A3Represent age factor, A4Table Show the utilization rate factor, A5Represent the performance factor, A6Importance factor, ω1Represent the first weighted value, ω2Represent the second weighted value, ω3Represent the 3rd weighted value, ω4Represent the 4th weighted value, ω5Represent the 5th weighted value, ω6Represent the 6th weighted value, and ω1 +ω2+ω3+ω4+ω5+ω6=1.
  7. 7. equipment complex risk assessment device according to claim 5, it is characterised in that the data processing unit, tool Body is used to search risk class table of classification rules according to the integrated risk value, determines the risk class of the equipment.
  8. 8. a kind of power system, it is characterised in that including the equipment complex risk assessment dress as described in claim any one of 5-7 Put.
CN201711242446.5A 2017-11-30 2017-11-30 Equipment comprehensive risk assessment method and device and power system Pending CN107832975A (en)

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Cited By (6)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN109319620A (en) * 2018-09-21 2019-02-12 上海光华国瑞物联网信息科技有限公司 A kind of system and application method of plant maintenance periodic scheduling
CN109389333A (en) * 2018-12-28 2019-02-26 国网北京市电力公司 The methods of risk assessment and device of power equipment
CN110380886A (en) * 2018-04-13 2019-10-25 国家电网公司 Powerline network methods of risk assessment based on degree of unavailability
CN112070406A (en) * 2020-09-11 2020-12-11 国网北京市电力公司 Equipment risk processing method and device for power transmission equipment and electronic device
CN113033918A (en) * 2021-04-25 2021-06-25 华北电力大学 Multi-layer oriented power distribution network risk quantitative evaluation method
TWI756628B (en) * 2019-02-26 2022-03-01 日商三菱重工業股份有限公司 Operation evaluation device, operation evaluation method, and program

Cited By (7)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN110380886A (en) * 2018-04-13 2019-10-25 国家电网公司 Powerline network methods of risk assessment based on degree of unavailability
CN109319620A (en) * 2018-09-21 2019-02-12 上海光华国瑞物联网信息科技有限公司 A kind of system and application method of plant maintenance periodic scheduling
CN109389333A (en) * 2018-12-28 2019-02-26 国网北京市电力公司 The methods of risk assessment and device of power equipment
TWI756628B (en) * 2019-02-26 2022-03-01 日商三菱重工業股份有限公司 Operation evaluation device, operation evaluation method, and program
CN112070406A (en) * 2020-09-11 2020-12-11 国网北京市电力公司 Equipment risk processing method and device for power transmission equipment and electronic device
CN112070406B (en) * 2020-09-11 2024-07-05 国网北京市电力公司 Equipment risk processing method and device for power transmission equipment and electronic device
CN113033918A (en) * 2021-04-25 2021-06-25 华北电力大学 Multi-layer oriented power distribution network risk quantitative evaluation method

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Application publication date: 20180323