CN107832893A - Power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method and device under typhoon based on logistic - Google Patents
Power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method and device under typhoon based on logistic Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method and device under a kind of typhoon based on logistic, the present invention passes through logistic regression analyses, consider to influence the external factor and internal factor that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability under typhoon disaster comprehensively so that establishing model has stronger applicability；Can also be laid equal stress on new modeling with the abundant damage case set of statistics after calamity, the calibration and renewal of implementation model, so that the data volume that damage example data set is included gradually increases, the precision of model can also improve constantly, and solve the technical problem that the degree of accuracy existing for power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method is low and poor for applicability under existing typhoon disaster.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power equipment O＆M field, more particularly to power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic
Damage probability forecasting method and device.
Background technology
Typhoon is a kind of common extreme weather, destructive strong, when typhoon occurs, easily to the power transmission and transformation in residing region
Device causes huge infringement.Infringement of the typhoon to power transmission and transforming equipment is generally divided into two kinds of situations of mechanical damage and electric fault,
Wherein mechanical damage includes：Broken string, shaft tower are toppled over or are broken aerial earth wire and coup injury, and tree falls, the massif such as come off
The indirect injuries such as landslide；In addition, electric fault includes：Equipment flashover caused by power transmission circuit caused by windage, a large amount of rainfalls, floating object and
Short circuit etc..
It is common at present be directed to power transmission and transforming equipment damage probabilistic forecasting under typhoon disaster method be by calculate circuit and
The wind load of shaft tower carries out early warning, or defines several independent risk indicators, by the separate result being calculated again
COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING goes out equipment failure rate, this less consideration mechanical damage of method, only to power transmission and transforming equipment under typhoon disaster
State transfer characteristic and electrical characteristic are investigated.
Consider deficiency because current method has external factor, and be unable to implementation model dynamic and update, therefore result in
Low, the poor for applicability technical problem of the power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability assessment degree of accuracy under current typhoon disaster.
The content of the invention
The invention provides power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method and device,
Solve the power transmission and transforming equipment under current typhoon disaster and damage low, the poor for applicability technical problem of the probability evaluation method of failure degree of accuracy.
The invention provides power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method, including：
S1：To the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable and history typhoon corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to time of origin node, is obtained and is included all history damage information datas
First damage event data collection, and the described first damage event data collection is substituted into initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments and damaged generally
Rate forecast model, the initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the first defeated changes of logistic
Electric equipment damages Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable specifically includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment because
Plain variable, typhoon variable factors, equipment periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage thing
Part variable Y is dichotomic variable；
S2：The second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got is damaged into probability independent variable, led to
Cross the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage Probabilistic Prediction Model and calculate the damage probabilistic forecasting value for obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment.
Preferably, also include before step S1：
S01：Preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable is entered with preset initial damage event variable Y1
Row calculates, and obtains initial damage event data collection；
S02：The initial damage event data collection is substituted into the initial regression equations of logistic and carries out initial logistic
Power transmission and transforming equipment damages the structure of Probabilistic Prediction Model.
Preferably, the power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors specifically include：The design wind speed v of power transmission and transforming equipment, power transmission and transformation are set
It is standby that time limit T is run to ground level h and power transmission and transforming equipment；
The typhoon variable factors specifically include：Precipitation R in wind speed V and preset time period；
The equipment periphery vegetation variable factors specifically include：The mean height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
H and trees are spent to the water average departure D of power transmission and transforming equipment；
The equipment periphery soil property variable factors specifically include：Soil property hardness S in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery.
Preferably, the step S02 includes：
S021：The initial regression equations of the logistic are established, by described in the initial damage event data collection substitution
The initial regression equations of logistic, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments are established by logistic regression analyses and damaged generally
Rate forecast model, wherein, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
Wherein, b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent power transmission and transforming equipment pair
Ground level, T represent the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the average height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, D
Represent that trees represent wind speed to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V, R represents precipitation in preset time period, and S represents that power transmission and transformation are set
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of standby periphery；
S022：Pass through maximal possibility estimation mode, the value of each constant coefficient of calculating.
Preferably, the preset proportion of the example quantity of initial damage the event variable Y1=0 and Y1=1 is 1:1.
The invention provides power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probabilistic forecasting device, including：
Model modification unit, for damaging probability certainly to the first power transmission and transforming equipment corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to variable and history typhoon time of origin node, and acquisition includes all history
The first damage event data collection of information data is damaged, and the described first initial logistic of damage event data collection substitution is defeated
Transformer damages Probabilistic Prediction Model, and the initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated into the
One logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable includes：It is defeated
Transformer variable factors, typhoon variable factors, equipment periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, it is described
First damage event variable Y is dichotomic variable；
First computing unit, for the second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got to be damaged
Probability independent variable, the damage probability of Probabilistic Prediction Model calculating acquisition power transmission and transforming equipment is damaged by second power transmission and transforming equipment
Predicted value.
Preferably, in addition to：
Data input cell, for preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment to be damaged into probability independent variable and preset initial damage
Event variable Y1 is calculated, and obtains initial damage event data collection；
Initial modeling unit, carried out for the initial damage event data collection to be substituted into the initial regression equations of logistic
First logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage the structure of Probabilistic Prediction Model.
Preferably, the power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors specifically include：The design wind speed v of power transmission and transforming equipment, power transmission and transformation are set
It is standby that time limit T is run to ground level h and power transmission and transforming equipment；
The typhoon variable factors specifically include：Precipitation R in wind speed V and preset time period；
The equipment periphery vegetation variable factors specifically include：The mean height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
H and trees are spent to the water average departure D of power transmission and transforming equipment；
The equipment periphery soil property variable factors specifically include：Soil property hardness S in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery.
Preferably, the initial modeling unit specifically includes：
First modeling subelement, for establishing the initial regression equations of the logistic, by the initial damage event number
The initial regression equations of logistic are substituted into according to collection, the defeated changes of the first logistic are established by logistic regression analyses
Electric equipment damages Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
Wherein, b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent power transmission and transforming equipment pair
Ground level, T represent the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the average height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, D
Represent that trees represent wind speed to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V, R represents precipitation in preset time period, and S represents that power transmission and transformation are set
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of standby periphery；
Constant calculations subelement, for passing through maximal possibility estimation mode, the value of each constant coefficient of calculating.
Preferably, the preset proportion of the example quantity of initial damage event data the collection Y1=0 and Y1=1 is 1:1.
As can be seen from the above technical solutions, the present invention has advantages below：
The invention provides power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method and device,
Wherein, power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method includes under the typhoon based on logistic：S1：To history typhoon time of origin
First damage thing corresponding to first power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable corresponding to node and history typhoon time of origin node
Part variable Y is calculated, and obtains the first damage event data collection for including all history damage information datas, and first is damaged
Ruin the initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model of event data collection substitution and be updated to the first defeated changes of logistic
Electric equipment damages Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable specifically includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment factor becomes
Amount, typhoon variable factors, equipment periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage event variable Y
For dichotomic variable；S2：The second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got is damaged into probability independent variable,
The damage probabilistic forecasting value of Probabilistic Prediction Model calculating acquisition power transmission and transforming equipment is damaged by the first power transmission and transforming equipment.
The present invention considers to influence power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability under typhoon disaster comprehensively by logistic regression analyses
External factor and internal factor so that establishing model has stronger applicability；The abundant damage of statistics after calamity can also be used
Ruin case set to lay equal stress on new modeling, the calibration and renewal of implementation model so that the data volume that damage example data set is included is gradual
Increase, the precision of model can also improve constantly, and solve power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method under existing typhoon disaster and deposit
The low and poor for applicability technical problem of the degree of accuracy.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the required accompanying drawing used in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, without having to pay creative labor, may be used also
To obtain other accompanying drawings according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The flow chart of one embodiment of method；
Fig. 2 is that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The flow chart of another embodiment of method；
Fig. 3 is that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided in an embodiment of the present invention
The structural representation of one embodiment of device.
Embodiment
The embodiments of the invention provide power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method,
It is caused to work as foreground for solving the method Consideration deficiency of the damage probability of the power transmission and transforming equipment under current predictive typhoon disaster
Power transmission and transforming equipment under disaster caused by a windstorm evil damages the low and poor for applicability technical problem of the probability evaluation method of failure degree of accuracy.
To enable goal of the invention, feature, the advantage of the present invention more obvious and understandable, below in conjunction with the present invention
Accompanying drawing in embodiment, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described, it is clear that disclosed below
Embodiment be only part of the embodiment of the present invention, and not all embodiment.Based on the embodiment in the present invention, this area
All other embodiment that those of ordinary skill is obtained under the premise of creative work is not made, belongs to protection of the present invention
Scope.
Referring to Fig. 1, power transmission and transforming equipment damage is general under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided in an embodiment of the present invention
One embodiment of rate Forecasting Methodology, including：
101：To the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable and history platform corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to wind time of origin node, and acquisition includes all history damage information datas
The first damage event data collection, and the first damage event data collection is substituted into initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments and damages probability
Forecast model, initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments
Damage Probabilistic Prediction Model；
It should be noted that the first damage event data collection is defeated to corresponding to the timing node of past generation typhoon first
Transformer damages probability independent variable and first and damages the damage event data collection obtained after event variable Y is calculated；
Power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable specifically includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors, typhoon variable factors, equipment
Periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage event variable Y is dichotomic variable；
Wherein, when the first damage event variable Y is 0, represents damage event and do not occur, the first damage event variable Y is 1
When, represent the generation of damage event.
102：The second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got is damaged into probability independent variable, led to
Cross the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage Probabilistic Prediction Model and calculate the damage probabilistic forecasting value for obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment；
It should be noted that the damage probabilistic forecasting value for the power transmission and transforming equipment predicted in the case where obtaining this typhoon disaster,
And, it is necessary to be damaged to the second power transmission and transforming equipment corresponding to this typhoon time of origin node after the typhoon disaster of this prediction occurs
Ruin the actual value of probability independent variable, the second damage event variable Y2 and history damage letter corresponding to this typhoon time of origin node
Breath data are calculated, and obtain the second damage event data collection for including all history damage information datas, and second is damaged
Ruin event data collection and substitute into initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, initial logistic power transmission and transformation are set
Standby damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the 2nd logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model again；
Wherein, the second power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable be get it is defeated after the timing node of typhoon warning information
Transformer damages probability argument data.
Further, initially the preset proportion of damage event data collection Y1=0 and Y1=1 example quantity is 1:1；
It should be noted that initial damage event variable Y1 is dichotomic variable, and the Y1=0 and Y1=1 preset ratio of example
Example is 1：1 or level off to 1：1, decline for model prediction accuracy caused by avoiding data category classification uneven.
The embodiments of the invention provide power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method,
Compared with power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability forecasting method under the existing typhoon based on logistic, the present embodiment is more fully hereinafter
Considering influences the external factor of power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability under typhoon disaster so that establishing model has stronger be applicable
Property；Can also be laid equal stress on new modeling with the abundant damage case set of statistics after calamity, the calibration and renewal of implementation model, with damage
The data volume that example data set includes gradually increases, and the precision of model can also improve constantly.
It is one embodiment that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic above,
To carry out more specific description, power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic is provided below and damages probability forecasting method
Another embodiment detailed description.
Referring to Fig. 2, power transmission and transforming equipment damage is general under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Another embodiment of rate Forecasting Methodology, including：
201：Preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable is entered with preset initial damage event variable Y1
Row calculates, and obtains initial damage event data collection；
It should be noted that preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable and preset initial damage event become
Amount Y1 is to establish preset data variable before logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model.
202：The initial regression equations of logistic are established, event data collection substitution logistic will be initially damaged and initially return
Equation, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments are established by logistic regression analyses and damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, first
Logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
It should be noted that b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent defeated change
For electric equipment to ground level, T represents the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the flat of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
Height, D represent that trees represent wind speed to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V, and R represents precipitation in preset time period, and S is represented
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, wherein, the precipitation hierarchical table related to precipitation R in preset time period and
The soil property hardness hierarchical table closed with soil property hardness S-phase in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, it is specific as follows：
The precipitation hierarchical table of table 1
The soil property hardness hierarchical table of table 2
| Soil property type | Hardness level |
| Pan soil | 3 |
| Weak soil | 2 |
| Sandy soil | 1 |
| Mud | 0 |
203：By maximal possibility estimation mode, the value of each constant coefficient is calculated；
It should be noted that each constant coefficient of logistic models can also by by initially damage event variable Y and
The initial damage event data collection of initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable composition imports SPSSStatistics data and compiled
Device mode is collected to obtain.
204：To the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable and history platform corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to wind time of origin node, and acquisition includes all history damage information datas
The first damage event data collection, and the first damage event data collection is substituted into initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments and damages probability
Forecast model, initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments
Damage Probabilistic Prediction Model；
It should be noted that the first damage event data collection is defeated to corresponding to the timing node of past generation typhoon first
Transformer damages probability independent variable and first and damages the damage event data collection obtained after event variable Y is calculated；
Power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable specifically includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors, typhoon variable factors, equipment
Periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage event variable Y is dichotomic variable.
205：The second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got is damaged into probability independent variable, led to
Cross the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage Probabilistic Prediction Model and calculate the damage probabilistic forecasting value for obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment；
It should be noted that the damage probabilistic forecasting value for the power transmission and transforming equipment predicted in the case where obtaining this typhoon disaster,
And, it is necessary to be damaged to the second power transmission and transforming equipment corresponding to this typhoon time of origin node after the typhoon disaster of this prediction occurs
Ruin the actual value of probability independent variable, the second damage event variable Y2 and history damage letter corresponding to this typhoon time of origin node
Breath data are calculated, and obtain the second damage event data collection for including all history damage information datas, and second is damaged
Ruin event data collection and substitute into initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, initial logistic power transmission and transformation are set
Standby damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the 2nd logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model again；
Wherein, the second power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable be get it is defeated after the timing node of typhoon warning information
Transformer damages probability argument data.
Further, initially the preset proportion of damage event data collection Y1=0 and Y1=1 example quantity is 1:1；
It should be noted that initial damage event variable Y1 is dichotomic variable, and the Y1=0 and Y1=1 preset ratio of example
Example is 1：1 or level off to 1：1, decline for model prediction accuracy caused by avoiding data category classification uneven.
The embodiments of the invention provide power transmission and transforming equipment under a kind of typhoon based on logistic to damage probability forecasting method
Another embodiment, the present embodiment comprehensively considers that power transmission and transforming equipment damage is influenceed under typhoon disaster is general by logistic
The external factor of rate so that establishing model has stronger applicability；The abundant damage example of statistics after calamity can also be used
Collect new modeling of laying equal stress on, the calibration and renewal of implementation model, the data volume included with damage example data set gradually increases, model
Precision can also improve constantly；Each power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable is deeply excavated in regression analysis and equipment damages probability
Inner link, it ensure that objectivity and the degree of accuracy of model；Unnecessary index definition and calculating are avoided simultaneously, directly to damage
Probabilistic Modeling is ruined, reduces amount of calculation and subjectivity.
It is that power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided by the invention above
Another embodiment detailed description, power transmission and transformation under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided by the invention will be set below
The structural representation of standby damage probabilistic forecasting device is described in detail.
Referring to Fig. 3, power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting under a kind of typhoon based on logistic provided by the invention
One embodiment of device, including：
Model modification unit 301, it is general for being damaged to the first power transmission and transforming equipment corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to rate independent variable and history typhoon time of origin node, and acquisition includes all
First damage event data collection of history damage information data, and the first initial logistic of damage event data collection substitution is defeated
Transformer damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated to the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model；
Wherein, power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors, typhoon variable factors, set
Standby periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage event variable Y is dichotomic variable.
First computing unit 302, for by the second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got
Probability independent variable is damaged, the damage probability of Probabilistic Prediction Model calculating acquisition power transmission and transforming equipment is damaged by the second power transmission and transforming equipment
Predicted value.
Further, in addition to：
Data input cell 303, for by preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable with it is preset initial
Damage event variable Y1 is calculated, and obtains initial damage event data collection；
Initial modeling unit 304, the initial regression equation progress of logistic is substituted into for will initially damage event data collection
First logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage the structure of Probabilistic Prediction Model.
Further, power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors include：The design wind speed v of power transmission and transforming equipment, power transmission and transforming equipment are over the ground
Height h and power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit T；
Typhoon variable factors include：Precipitation R in wind speed V and preset time period；
Equipment periphery vegetation variable factors include：The average height H of trees and tree in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
Wood arrives the water average departure D of power transmission and transforming equipment；
Equipment periphery soil property variable factors include：Soil property hardness S in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery.
Further, initial modeling unit 304 specifically includes
First modeling subelement 3041, for establishing the initial regression equations of logistic, will initially damage event data collection
The initial regression equations of logistic are substituted into, it is general to establish the damage of the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments by logistic regression analyses
Rate forecast model, wherein, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
Wherein, b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent power transmission and transforming equipment pair
Ground level, T represent the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the average height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, D
Represent that trees represent wind speed to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V, R represents precipitation in preset time period, and S represents that power transmission and transformation are set
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of standby periphery；
Constant calculations subelement 3042, for by maximal possibility estimation mode, calculating the value of each constant coefficient.
Further, initially the preset proportion of damage event data collection Y1=0 and Y1=1 example quantity is 1:1.
It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the device of foregoing description,
The specific work process of device and unit, the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment is may be referred to, will not be repeated here.
In several embodiments provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed device, apparatus and method can be with
Realize by another way.For example, device embodiment described above is only schematical, for example, the division of unit,
Only a kind of division of logic function, can there is an other dividing mode when actually realizing, such as multiple units or component can be with
With reference to or be desirably integrated into another device, or some features can be ignored, or not perform.It is another, it is shown or discussed
Mutual coupling or direct-coupling or communication connection can be by some interfaces, the INDIRECT COUPLING of device or unit or
Communication connection, can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.
The unit illustrated as separating component can be or may not be physically separate, be shown as unit
Part can be or may not be physical location, you can with positioned at a place, or can also be distributed to multiple networks
On unit.Some or all of unit therein can be selected to realize the purpose of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs.
In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can also
That unit is individually physically present, can also two or more units it is integrated in a unit.Above-mentioned integrated list
Member can both be realized in the form of hardware, can also be realized in the form of SFU software functional unit.
If integrated unit is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and is used as independent production marketing or in use, can
To be stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Based on such understanding, technical scheme substantially or
Saying all or part of the part to be contributed to prior art or the technical scheme can be embodied in the form of software product
Out, the computer software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are causing a computer equipment
(can be personal computer, server, or network equipment etc.) performs all or part of each embodiment method of the present invention
Step.And foregoing storage medium includes：It is USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, read-only storage (ROM, Read-Only Memory), random
Access memory (RAM, Random Access Memory), magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can be with Jie of store program codes
Matter.
Described above, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention, rather than its limitations；Although with reference to before
Embodiment is stated the present invention is described in detail, it will be understood by those within the art that：It still can be to preceding
State the technical scheme described in each embodiment to modify, or equivalent substitution is carried out to which part technical characteristic；And these
Modification is replaced, and the essence of appropriate technical solution is departed from the spirit and scope of various embodiments of the present invention technical scheme.
Claims (10)
1. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic, it is characterised in that including：
S1：First power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable and history typhoon corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node are occurred
The first damage event variable Y is calculated corresponding to timing node, is obtained and is included the first of all history damage information datas
Event data collection is damaged, and the described first initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage probability of damage event data collection substitution is pre-
Model is surveyed, the initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated into the first logistic power transmission and transformation sets
Standby damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable specifically includes：Power transmission and transforming equipment factor becomes
Amount, typhoon variable factors, equipment periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, the first damage event become
Amount Y is dichotomic variable；
S2：The second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got is damaged into probability independent variable, passes through institute
State the first power transmission and transforming equipment damage Probabilistic Prediction Model and calculate the damage probabilistic forecasting value for obtaining power transmission and transforming equipment.
2. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 1,
Characterized in that, also include before step S1：
S01：Preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable is counted with preset initial damage event variable Y1
Calculate, obtain initial damage event data collection；
S02：The initial damage event data collection is substituted into the initial regression equations of logistic and carries out the initial defeated changes of logistic
Electric equipment damages the structure of Probabilistic Prediction Model.
3. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 2,
Characterized in that,
The power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors specifically include：The design wind speed v of power transmission and transforming equipment, power transmission and transforming equipment are to ground level h
With power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit T；
The typhoon variable factors specifically include：Precipitation R in wind speed V and preset time period；
The equipment periphery vegetation variable factors specifically include：The average height H of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
With the water average departure D of trees to power transmission and transforming equipment；
The equipment periphery soil property variable factors specifically include：Soil property hardness S in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery.
4. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probability forecasting method under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 3,
Characterized in that, the step S02 includes：
S021：The initial regression equations of the logistic are established, by described in the initial damage event data collection substitution
The initial regression equations of logistic, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments are established by logistic regression analyses and damaged generally
Rate forecast model, wherein, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
<mrow>
<mi>P</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>=</mo>
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<mo>+</mo>
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<mo>(</mo>
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<mi>h</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>3</mn>
<mi>T</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>4</mn>
<mi>V</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>5</mn>
<mi>R</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>6</mn>
<mi>H</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>7</mn>
<mi>D</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>8</mn>
<mi>S</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
</msup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
Wherein, b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent that power transmission and transforming equipment is high over the ground
Degree, T represent the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the average height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, and D is represented
Trees represent precipitation in preset time period to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V expression wind speed, R, and S represents power transmission and transforming equipment week
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of side；
S022：Pass through maximal possibility estimation mode, the value of each constant coefficient of calculating.
5. power transmission and transforming equipment damage is general under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 2 to 4 any one
Rate Forecasting Methodology, it is characterised in that the preset proportion of the example quantity of initial damage the event variable Y1=0 and Y1=1 is
1:1。
6. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting device under a kind of typhoon based on logistic, it is characterised in that including：
Model modification unit, for damaging probability independent variable to the first power transmission and transforming equipment corresponding to history typhoon time of origin node
With history typhoon time of origin node corresponding to the first damage event variable Y calculated, acquisition includes the damage of all history
First damage event data collection of information data, and the described first damage event data collection is substituted into initial logistic power transmission and transformation
Equipment damages Probabilistic Prediction Model, and the initial logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model is updated into first
Logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the power transmission and transforming equipment damage probability independent variable includes：Defeated change
Electric equipment variable factors, typhoon variable factors, equipment periphery vegetation variable factors and equipment periphery soil property variable factors, described
One damage event variable Y is dichotomic variable；
First computing unit, for the second power transmission and transforming equipment before the preset typhoon time of origin node got to be damaged into probability
Independent variable, the damage probabilistic forecasting of Probabilistic Prediction Model calculating acquisition power transmission and transforming equipment is damaged by second power transmission and transforming equipment
Value.
7. under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 6 power transmission and transforming equipment damage probabilistic forecasting device its
It is characterised by, in addition to：
Data input cell, for preset initial power transmission and transforming equipment to be damaged into probability independent variable and preset initial damage event
Variable Y 1 is calculated, and obtains initial damage event data collection；
Initial modeling unit, first is carried out for the initial damage event data collection to be substituted into the initial regression equations of logistic
Logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage the structure of Probabilistic Prediction Model.
8. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting device under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 7,
Characterized in that,
The power transmission and transforming equipment variable factors specifically include：The design wind speed v of power transmission and transforming equipment, power transmission and transforming equipment are to ground level h
With power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit T；
The typhoon variable factors specifically include：Precipitation R in wind speed V and preset time period；
The equipment periphery vegetation variable factors specifically include：The average height H of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery
With the water average departure D of trees to power transmission and transforming equipment；
The equipment periphery soil property variable factors specifically include：Soil property hardness S in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery.
9. power transmission and transforming equipment damages probabilistic forecasting device under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 8,
Characterized in that, the initial modeling unit specifically includes：
First modeling subelement, for establishing the initial regression equations of the logistic, by the initial damage event data collection
The initial regression equations of the logistic are substituted into, establishing the first logistic power transmission and transformation by logistic regression analyses sets
Standby damage Probabilistic Prediction Model, wherein, the first logistic power transmission and transforming equipments damage Probabilistic Prediction Model includes：
<mrow>
<mi>P</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>Y</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mn>1</mn>
<mrow>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>+</mo>
<msup>
<mi>e</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>0</mn>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
<mi>v</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
<mi>h</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>3</mn>
<mi>T</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>4</mn>
<mi>V</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>5</mn>
<mi>R</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>6</mn>
<mi>H</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>7</mn>
<mi>D</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mi>b</mi>
<mn>8</mn>
<mi>S</mi>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
</msup>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
</mrow>
Wherein, b0, b1 ..., bn be constant coefficient, v represents that the design wind speed of power transmission and transforming equipment, h represent that power transmission and transforming equipment is high over the ground
Degree, T represent the power transmission and transforming equipment operation time limit, and H represents the average height of trees in the presetting range of power transmission and transforming equipment periphery, and D is represented
Trees represent precipitation in preset time period to the water average departure of power transmission and transforming equipment, V expression wind speed, R, and S represents power transmission and transforming equipment week
Soil property hardness in the presetting range of side；
Constant calculations subelement, for passing through maximal possibility estimation mode, the value of each constant coefficient of calculating.
10. power transmission and transforming equipment damage is general under a kind of typhoon based on logistic according to claim 7 to 9 any one
Rate prediction meanss, it is characterised in that the preset proportion of the example quantity of initial damage event data the collection Y1=0 and Y1=1
For 1:1.
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