CN107784148A - A kind of gathering line crash rate appraisal procedure and device - Google Patents
A kind of gathering line crash rate appraisal procedure and device Download PDFInfo
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- CN107784148A CN107784148A CN201610800151.4A CN201610800151A CN107784148A CN 107784148 A CN107784148 A CN 107784148A CN 201610800151 A CN201610800151 A CN 201610800151A CN 107784148 A CN107784148 A CN 107784148A
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Abstract
The embodiment of the invention discloses a kind of gathering line crash rate appraisal procedure and device.This method includes：Obtain the history crash rate that each failure mode occurs for all types of pipelines；Obtain the conduit types that goal-based assessment pipeline includes；The history crash rate of each failure mode occurs for the conduit types included according to goal-based assessment pipeline, and all types of pipelines, obtains goal-based assessment pipeline and the crash rate of each failure mode and total crash rate of goal-based assessment pipeline occurs.History fail data of the embodiment of the present invention based on gathering system establishes crash rate assessment models, and with the type according to goal-based assessment pipeline, goal-based assessment pipeline is assessed, and compared with prior art, has the advantages of assessment accuracy is high, strong applicability.
Description
Technical Field
The embodiment of the invention relates to the technical field of petroleum pipeline leakage early warning, in particular to a gathering and transportation pipeline failure rate evaluation method and device.
Background
The oil and gas gathering and transporting pipeline is a link connecting various facilities of an oil and gas field and is divided into an oil outlet pipe, a gas production pipe, an oil collecting pipe, a gas collecting pipe, an oil transporting pipe, a gas transporting pipe and the like according to the transporting medium and the function of the oil and gas gathering and transporting pipeline. Compared with long-distance pipelines, the gathering and transportation pipeline has the advantages that the conveying terrain is complex, the soil property is different, the pipeline structure forms are various, the conveying medium property is different, and a plurality of pipelines are overlapped and staggered to be laid; for years of production of some old oil fields such as victory, daqing and the like, most of gathering and transportation pipelines seriously tend to age, and problems in design, manufacture, installation and operation of the pipelines are gradually exposed along with the increase of operation time; meanwhile, with the continuous development of local economy, various pipeline pressure occupation and damage events frequently occur. Pipeline leakage accidents occur frequently, and the environmental, personal and property safety is seriously threatened. The risk evaluation is a powerful effective measure for ensuring the safe operation of the pipeline, and the risk failure possibility evaluation is one of key contents.
The existing failure possibility evaluation methods at home and abroad mainly comprise: an API 581 method, a fault tree method based on fuzzy theory, a Kent scoring method and the like. Wherein, the API 581 only considers the failure caused by the pipeline operation, and the universal failure possibility is based on the American pipeline failure statistical data, which is not suitable for the pipeline market in China; although the fuzzy theory-based fault number method is relatively comprehensive in identification of the hazard factors, a failure possibility evaluation model established based on the fuzzy theory is not industrially applied at present, and the reliability of the failure possibility evaluation model is to be examined; the Kent scoring method is to refine the hazard factors of the pipeline evaluation unit and obtain the risk value of the pipeline evaluation unit by means of artificial scoring, and the method introduces excessive subjective factors, and the accuracy of the method depends on the experience capability of an evaluator to a great extent.
Disclosure of Invention
One purpose of the embodiments of the present invention is to solve the problem of low evaluation accuracy caused by introducing too many subjective factors in the prior art.
The embodiment of the invention provides a failure rate evaluation method for a gathering and transportation pipeline, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring historical failure rates of various types of pipelines in various failure modes;
acquiring the type of a pipeline contained in a target evaluation pipeline;
and acquiring the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the pipeline type contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline.
Preferably, the step of obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline specifically includes:
acquiring historical failure data of a gathering and transportation system, wherein the historical failure data comprises failure modes of failure accidents at each time and types of gathering and transportation pipelines;
and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
Preferably, before the step of obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data, the method further comprises:
acquiring failure factors of each failure accident according to the historical failure data;
correspondingly, the step of obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data specifically comprises the following steps:
according to failure factors of each failure accident, and in combination with the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering and transporting pipeline, acquiring first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipeline caused by different failure factors;
and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the first historical failure rate.
Preferably, the step of obtaining, according to the failure factor of each failure accident and in combination with the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering pipeline, a first historical failure rate of each type of gathering pipeline due to different failure factors, which causes each failure mode, specifically includes:
according to failure factors of each failure accident, failure modes and types of the gathering and transporting pipelines, and by combining the following formula, acquiring first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipelines caused by different failure factors;
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is the failure factor, b is the total number of the failure factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering pipeline.
Preferably, the method further comprises:
according to historical failure data of a gathering and transportation system, the historical failure rate P of failure accidents of a gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors is obtained by combining the following formula i ：
Wherein N is i The total number of times of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline which is caused by the i-th failure factor in M years.
Preferably, the step of obtaining the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the types of pipelines included in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rates of the failure modes of the pipelines of each type includes:
acquiring a preset weight value corresponding to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline;
according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are respectively the pipeline types of the target evaluation pipeline obtained by adopting different division rules, and z and y... X are respectively the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1。
The invention also provides a failure rate evaluation device for the gathering and transportation pipeline, which comprises:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline;
and the evaluation module is used for acquiring the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline.
Preferably, the first obtaining module is specifically configured to obtain historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, where the historical failure data includes a failure mode of each failure accident and a type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
Preferably, the apparatus further comprises: the third acquisition module is used for acquiring failure factors of failure accidents of each time according to the historical failure data before acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data;
correspondingly, the first obtaining module is specifically configured to obtain, according to failure factors of each failure accident, a first historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors in combination with the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the first historical failure rate.
Preferably, the first obtaining module is specifically configured to obtain, according to the failure factor, the failure mode, and the type of the gathering and transporting pipeline of each failure accident, a first historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipeline caused by different failure factors in combination with the following formula;
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is the failure factor, b is the total number of the failure factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering pipeline.
Preferably, the evaluation module is further configured to obtain, according to historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, a historical failure rate P of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors by combining the following formula i ：
Wherein N is i The total number of times of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is a radical of an alcohol i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline which is caused by the i-th failure factor in M years.
Preferably, the evaluation module is specifically configured to obtain a preset weight value corresponding to a type of a pipeline included in a target evaluation pipeline; according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are respectively the pipeline types of the target evaluation pipeline obtained by adopting different division rules, and z and y... X are respectively the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1。
According to the technical scheme, the failure rate evaluation method and device for the gathering and transportation pipeline, provided by the embodiment of the invention, are used for establishing a failure rate evaluation model based on historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system so as to evaluate the target evaluation pipeline according to the type of the target evaluation pipeline.
Drawings
The features and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood by reference to the accompanying drawings, which are illustrative and not to be construed as limiting the invention in any way, and in which:
fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a failure rate evaluation method for a gathering and transportation pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a gathering and transportation pipeline failure rate evaluation device according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a gathering and transportation pipeline failure rate evaluation device according to another embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be obtained by a person skilled in the art without any inventive step based on the embodiments of the present invention, are within the scope of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a failure rate evaluation method for a gathering and transportation pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 1, the failure rate evaluation method for a gathering and transportation pipeline includes:
110. acquiring historical failure rates of various types of pipelines in various failure modes;
120. acquiring the type of a pipeline contained in a target evaluation pipeline;
it should be noted that, if a plurality of preset division rules are adopted to divide the target evaluation pipeline, the target evaluation pipeline will include a plurality of pipeline types; for example:
when the pipe diameters are divided according to the target evaluation pipeline, the target evaluation pipeline belongs to the type of the pipeline with the pipe diameter larger than 300 mm; when the service life of the pipeline is divided, the target evaluation pipeline belongs to the type of the pipeline with the service life of more than 10 years.
130. According to the types of the pipelines contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline, the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline are obtained
It should be noted that failure accidents with multiple failure modes may occur in the same gathering and transportation pipeline; for example: failure modes such as small hole leakage and large hole leakage can occur in the gathering and transportation pipeline with the pipe diameter larger than 300 mm.
The failure rate evaluation model is established based on the historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, so that the target evaluation pipeline is evaluated according to the type of the target evaluation pipeline.
In this embodiment, step 110 specifically includes:
acquiring historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, wherein the historical failure data comprises failure modes of failure accidents of each time and types of gathering and transportation pipelines;
and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
It should be noted that, in actual operation, if a gathering and transportation pipeline failure accident occurs in the gathering and transportation system, a worker records specific failure accident data to a memory by using a log or other modes;
in addition, it is understood that the gathering and transportation pipeline in the gathering and transportation system may change every time of a failure accident, and therefore, the latest data of the gathering and transportation pipeline at each failure accident needs to be recorded, including: failure mode, failure cause, type of gathering and transportation pipeline, and length of various pipelines.
The steps for calculating the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline are as follows:
when receiving a control instruction input from the outside, the processor starts to execute an evaluation task according to the control instruction, and corresponding historical failure data is extracted from a predicted address; the age of the historical failure data is adjustable, for example: 3 years, 5 years and the like.
Acquiring failure factors of each failure accident according to failure reasons of each failure accident in the historical failure data; the failure factors can be obtained by classifying all failure reasons. There are various ways of classifying, for example: a number of failure causes are classified as: artificial and non-artificial, or congenital tube defects and acquired tube damage, etc.
According to failure factors of each failure accident, failure modes and types of the gathering and transporting pipelines, and by combining the following formula, acquiring first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipelines caused by different failure factors;
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is the failure factor, b is the total number of the failure factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering pipeline.
Summing the first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transmission pipeline caused by different failure factors, and obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transmission pipeline.
It should be noted that, in the present embodiment, based on the introduced failure cause and failure factor, data analysis may be performed on the basis of the evaluation method to obtain the possibility that the failure of the gathering and transportation pipeline is caused by the failure factor.
Step 130 is described in detail below:
firstly, acquiring the pipeline type of a target evaluation pipeline, and acquiring the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline based on the formula;
secondly, acquiring a preset weight value corresponding to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline;
according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are respectively the pipeline types of the target evaluation pipeline obtained by adopting different division rules, and z and y... X are respectively the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1。
Furthermore, the method can also analyze the historical failure rate of the failure accident caused by each failure factor based on the historical failure data; the method comprises the following specific steps:
according to historical failure data of a gathering and transportation system, the historical failure rate P of failure accidents of a gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors is obtained by combining the following formula i ：
Wherein N is i The total number of times of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline which is caused by the i-th failure factor in M years.
The invention is illustrated in detail below with reference to examples:
the method comprises the steps of firstly, acquiring historical failure data of all failure accidents in the years of a gathering and transporting pipeline M (M is more than or equal to 3) in a certain gathering and transporting system, wherein the historical failure data comprises the frequency of the failure accidents in each year, the names of the pipelines with the failure accidents, the outer diameter D, a transporting medium, the length l, failure reasons causing the failure accidents, failure modes (for example, small hole leakage, large hole leakage and breakage, and the failure modes are represented by a =1,2,3) and the like.
The failure modes of the gathering and transportation pipeline are divided as shown in the following table:
and step two, classifying failure reasons causing failure accidents on the basis of historical failure data. The failure factors of the gathering and transportation pipeline are mainly classified into five types, including five failure factors (i =1,2, … and 5) such as pipe body defects (manufacturing and construction), misoperation, corrosion (internal and external corrosion), geological disasters and third party damage.
Step three,
1) Failure times statistics
On the basis of historical failure data statistics, the pipe diameters of failed gathering and transportation pipelines are classified, and according to the characteristics of oil field oil gas gathering and transportation pipelines, the pipe diameters can be divided into the sum of no more than 150mm, 200-300 mm&Three pipe diameters of 300mm (denoted by j =1,2,3); according to the service life of the pipeline, dividing the pipeline into 0-5 years, 5-10 years and&three pipes (denoted k =1,2,3) for 10 years; dividing the conduit into a gas conduit and a liquid conduit (denoted by p =1,2) according to the transport medium; according to the failure mode, counting the total length L of the jth pipe diameter gathering and transportation pipeline within M years (M is more than or equal to 3) Dj The total number of a failures of the jth gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor
L Dj ＝(l D1 ，l D2 ，l D3 )
Similarly, the total length L of the gathering and transportation pipeline of the kth class service life is counted Ak And the total number of the a-type failures of the k-type gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the i-type failure factorsTotality of class p transport medium conduitsLong L Mp And the total number of a-type failures of the p-type gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the i-type failure factors
2) Historical failure rate calculation
Calculating the failure probability of the failure of different types of gathering and transportation pipelines caused by five failure factors in M years (M is more than or equal to 3), wherein:
historical failure rate of pipeline with jth pipe diameter in the a-th failure modeComprises the following steps:
historical failure rate of kth class service life pipeline in a-th failure modeComprises the following steps:
historical failure rate of p type conveying medium pipeline in a type a failure modeComprises the following steps:
further, the historical failure rate P of the pipeline with the jth pipe diameter failing j Comprises the following steps:
historical failure rate P of k-th class service life pipeline failure k Comprises the following steps:
historical failure rate P of failure of P-th type conveying medium pipeline p Comprises the following steps:
wherein: m is the number of statistical years; j is a pipe diameter type, j =1,2,3 which respectively represents no more than 150mm, 200-300 mm and&three pipe diameters of 300 mm; k is the service life of the pipeline, k =1,2,3 and represents 0-5 years, 5-10 years and&three pipelines with service life of 10 years; p is the ducted media, p =1,2, representing gas and liquid ducts, respectively.The historical failure rates of pipelines with different pipe diameters, different service lives and different conveying media within M years (M is more than or equal to 3) are respectively/(km.year);respectively representing the total times of failures of the gathering and transportation pipelines with different pipe diameters, different pipeline service life and different transportation media caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is a radical of an alcohol Dj 、L Ak 、L Mp The j-th pipe diameter, the k-th service life and the total length of the p-th medium gathering and transporting pipeline in M years are respectively.
Step four, failure possibility of gathering and transportation pipeline
Considering the influence of pipe diameter, service life and conveying medium on the failure of the pipeline, the possibility P of the a-th failure of the gathering and conveying pipeline is considered a Comprises the following steps:
wherein a represents the failure mode of failure accident of gathering and transportation pipeline, and a =1,2,3 represents small hole leakage mode, large hole leakage mode and rupture mode respectively.
The total failure probability P is:
on the basis of the model, if the possibility of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors is analyzed, the historical failure rate P of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor can be calculated i Obtaining:
wherein, N i Representing the total times of the failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline with failure accidents caused by the ith failure factor in M years is counted.
Method embodiments are described as a series of acts or combinations for simplicity of explanation, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention is not limited by the order of acts or acts described, as some steps may occur in other orders or concurrently with other steps in accordance with the embodiments of the invention. Furthermore, those skilled in the art will appreciate that the embodiments described in the specification are presently preferred and that no particular act is required to implement the invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic structural diagram of a failure rate evaluation apparatus for a gathering and transportation pipeline according to an embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 2, the failure rate evaluation apparatus for a gathering and transportation pipeline includes: a first acquisition module 21, a second acquisition module 22, and an evaluation module 23, wherein;
the first obtaining module 21 is configured to obtain historical failure rates of each type of pipeline in each failure mode;
a second obtaining module 22, configured to obtain a pipe type included in the target evaluation pipe;
the evaluation module 23 is configured to obtain failure rates of the target evaluation pipeline in each failure mode and a total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the types of pipelines included in the target evaluation pipeline and historical failure rates of the various types of pipelines in each failure mode
It should be noted that, after receiving an evaluation start instruction input by a user, the first obtaining module 21 obtains the historical failure rate of each failure mode occurring in each type of pipeline, and transmits the obtained data to the evaluation module 23; meanwhile, the second obtaining module 22 obtains the type of the target evaluation pipeline, and transmits the obtained data to the evaluation module 23; the evaluation module 23 obtains the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the type of the pipeline included in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline.
Compared with the prior art, the method and the device have the advantages of high evaluation accuracy and strong applicability.
In this embodiment, the first obtaining module 21 is specifically configured to obtain historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, where the historical failure data includes a failure mode of each failure accident and a type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
The working principle of the first obtaining module 21 is as follows:
according to failure factors, failure modes and types of the gathering and transporting pipelines of each failure accident, a first historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipelines caused by different failure factors is obtained by combining the following formulas:
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is the failure factor, b is the total number of the failure factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is a radical of an alcohol Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering and transporting pipeline.
In this embodiment, the operation principle of the evaluation module 33 is as follows:
firstly, acquiring the historical failure rate P of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the i-th failure factor according to the failure factor causing the failure accident i ：
Wherein N is i Representing the total times of failures of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the i-th failure factor in M years; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline of the ith failure factor in M years is counted.
Secondly, acquiring a preset weight value corresponding to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline; according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are targets obtained by different division rulesEvaluating the pipeline type of the pipeline, wherein z and y... X are the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s respectively; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1
As for the apparatus embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the relevant points, reference may be made to the partial description of the method embodiment.
Fig. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a gathering and transportation pipeline failure rate evaluation device according to another embodiment of the present invention, and referring to fig. 3, the device includes: a first acquisition module 31, a second acquisition module 32, an evaluation module 33, and a third acquisition module 34, wherein;
the first obtaining module 31, the second obtaining module 32 and the evaluating module 33 correspond to the first obtaining module 21, the second obtaining module 22 and the evaluating module 23 in the embodiment corresponding to fig. 2, respectively; therefore, the detailed operation principle is detailed in the related description of the corresponding embodiment in fig. 2.
And a third obtaining module 34, configured to obtain a failure factor of each failure accident according to the historical failure data before obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
It should be noted that each failure accident has a failure reason corresponding to the failure accident, and if a large amount of failure reason data is adopted, the calculation efficiency of the failure rate evaluation model is relatively low. Therefore, before the failure rate evaluation model is established, the failure cause data is classified to obtain the failure factor.
It will be appreciated that failure factors may be specified as: artificial and non-artificial, or congenital tube defects and acquired tube damage, etc.
Correspondingly, the evaluation module 33 can also analyze the historical failure rate P of the failure accident of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors based on the output data of the third obtaining module 34 i 。
As for the apparatus embodiment, since it is basically similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the relevant points, reference may be made to the partial description of the method embodiment.
It should be noted that, in the respective components of the apparatus of the present invention, the components therein are logically divided according to the functions to be implemented thereof, but the present invention is not limited thereto, and the respective components may be newly divided or combined as necessary.
Various component embodiments of the invention may be implemented in hardware, or in software modules running on one or more processors, or in a combination thereof. In the device, the PC remotely controls the equipment or the device through the Internet, and accurately controls each operation step of the equipment or the device. The present invention may also be embodied as apparatus or device programs (e.g., computer programs and computer program products) for performing a portion or all of the methods described herein. The program for realizing the invention can be stored on a computer readable medium, and the file or document generated by the program has statistics, generates a data report and a cpk report, and the like, and can carry out batch test and statistics on the power amplifier. It should be noted that the above-mentioned embodiments illustrate rather than limit the invention, and that those skilled in the art will be able to design alternative embodiments without departing from the scope of the appended claims. In the claims, any reference signs placed between parentheses shall not be construed as limiting the claim. The word "comprising" does not exclude the presence of elements or steps not listed in a claim. The word "a" or "an" preceding an element does not exclude the presence of a plurality of such elements. The invention may be implemented by means of hardware comprising several distinct elements, and by means of a suitably programmed computer. In the unit claims enumerating several means, several of these means may be embodied by one and the same item of hardware. The usage of the words first, second and third, etcetera do not indicate any ordering. These words may be interpreted as names.
Although the embodiments of the present invention have been described in conjunction with the accompanying drawings, those skilled in the art may make various modifications and variations without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, and such modifications and variations fall within the scope defined by the appended claims.
Claims (12)
1. A failure rate evaluation method for a gathering and transportation pipeline is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring historical failure rates of various types of pipelines in various failure modes;
acquiring the type of a pipeline contained in a target evaluation pipeline;
and acquiring the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the pipeline type contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the historical failure rates of the types of pipelines in which failure modes occur specifically comprises:
acquiring historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system, wherein the historical failure data comprises failure modes of failure accidents of each time and types of gathering and transportation pipelines;
and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein prior to the step of obtaining historical failure rates for each failure mode for each type of gathering pipeline based on the historical failure data, the method further comprises:
acquiring failure factors of each failure accident according to the historical failure data;
correspondingly, the step of obtaining the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data specifically comprises the following steps:
according to failure factors of each failure accident, and in combination with the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering and transporting pipeline, acquiring first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipeline caused by different failure factors;
and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the first historical failure rate.
4. The method according to claim 3, wherein the step of obtaining a first historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipelines caused by different failure factors according to the failure factor of each failure accident and by combining the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering and transportation pipelines specifically comprises:
according to failure factors of each failure accident, failure modes and types of the gathering and transporting pipelines, and by combining the following formula, acquiring first historical failure rates of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transporting pipelines caused by different failure factors;
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is the failure factor, b is the total number of the failure factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering pipeline.
5. The method of claim 3, further comprising:
according to historical failure data of a gathering and transportation system, the historical failure rate P of failure accidents of a gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors is obtained by combining the following formula i ：
Wherein N is i Is within M yearsThe total number of times of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the i-type failure factors; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline which is caused by the i-th failure factor in M years.
6. The method according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the step of obtaining the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the types of pipelines included in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rates of the failure modes of the pipelines of each type specifically comprises:
acquiring a preset weight value corresponding to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline;
according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are respectively the pipeline types of the target evaluation pipeline obtained by adopting different division rules, and z and y... X are respectively the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1。
7. An estimation device for failure rate of a gathering and transportation pipeline, comprising:
the first acquisition module is used for acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline;
the second acquisition module is used for acquiring the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline;
and the evaluation module is used for acquiring the failure rate of each failure mode of the target evaluation pipeline and the total failure rate of the target evaluation pipeline according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of pipeline.
8. The device according to claim 7, characterized in that the first acquisition module is specifically configured to acquire historical failure data of the gathering system including failure modes of each failure incident and types of the gathering pipeline; and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data.
9. The apparatus of claim 8, further comprising: the third acquisition module is used for acquiring failure factors of failure accidents of each time according to the historical failure data before acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the historical failure data;
correspondingly, the first obtaining module is specifically configured to obtain, according to failure factors of each failure accident, a first historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by different failure factors in combination with the failure mode of each failure accident and the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; and acquiring the historical failure rate of each failure mode of each type of gathering and transportation pipeline according to the first historical failure rate.
10. The apparatus according to claim 9, wherein the first obtaining module is specifically configured to obtain, according to the failure factor, the failure mode, and the type of the gathering pipeline of each failure accident, a first historical failure rate of each type of gathering pipeline due to the failure mode caused by different failure factors, in combination with the following formula:
wherein j is the type of the gathering and transportation pipeline; a is a failure mode; i is failure factor, b is failureThe total number of factors;the total times of the j category gathering and transportation pipeline failure modes caused by the ith failure factor; m is the preset time; l is Dj The total length of the j-th type gathering pipeline.
11. The device according to claim 9, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to obtain historical failure rate P of the gathering and transportation pipeline failure accident caused by different failure factors according to historical failure data of the gathering and transportation system and by combining the following formula i ：
Wherein N is i The total number of times of failure accidents of the gathering and transportation pipeline caused by the ith failure factor in M years; l is i The total length of the gathering and transportation pipeline which is caused by the i-th failure factor in M years.
12. The device according to any one of claims 7 to 11, wherein the evaluation module is specifically configured to obtain a preset weight value corresponding to a type of a pipeline included in a target evaluation pipeline; according to the type of the pipeline contained in the target evaluation pipeline and a preset weight value thereof, the total failure rate P of the target evaluation pipeline is obtained by combining the following formula:
wherein, P a Evaluating the failure rate of the pipeline in the a-th failure mode for the target; j. k … s are targets obtained by different division rulesEvaluating the pipeline type of the pipeline, wherein z and y... X are the total number of the pipeline types corresponding to j and k … s respectively; a. The 1 ,A 2 ...A n For the purpose of corresponding to the type of pipeline of the target evaluation pipeline, a 1 +A 2 +...+A n ＝1。
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