CN107748972A - A kind of method based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption - Google Patents
A kind of method based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses it is a kind of based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption method, first by nominal GDP be converted on the basis of a certain time can rate of exchange GDP；Again with can rate of exchange GDP calculate historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption；Again per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model is established according to historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption value；Historical years primary energy total quantity consumed, Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption substitution electric energy are accounted in final energy consumption proportion computation model again and account for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity to obtain historical years electric energy, and obtains prediction time electric energy according to corresponding planning and accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity；Finally prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed, prediction time electric energy are accounted in the above-mentioned computation model of final energy consumption proportion substitution and produce prediction time Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.The present invention accounts for the prediction whole society electricity consumption of final energy consumption proportion Dual-energy source index with per Unit GDP Energy Consumption and electric energy, can as the foundation of electricity needs Plan, efficiently contribute to carry out power supply and demand situation it is expected that, power planning.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to quantity of electricity requirement forecasting technical field, is predicted more particularly, to one kind based on Dual-energy source index
The method of Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.
Background technology
Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption refers to all power consumption total amounts with electrical domain such as the primary ,secondary and tertiary industries, including industry
Electricity consumption, farming power, commercial power, residential electricity consumption, communal facility electricity consumption and other electricity consumptions etc..With the hair of social economy
Exhibition, living standards of the people improve constantly, and Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption is continuously increased, the hair of the accuracy rate of power quantity predicting to electric power enterprise
Exhibition has large effect.Power quantity predicting be Electric Power Network Planning work pith, its result to grid power transmission, generate electricity and
The construction of electric power facility has important directive significance.In the case where ensureing power load, the standard of power quantity predicting how is improved
True property is so as to ensureing that power supply quality is most important.
Existing power predicating method has certain limitation：(1) tracing analysis method, different model data results
Differ larger；(2) elastic coefficient method, elastic coefficient method is closely bound up with national economy, with the development of the social economy, new energy
The continuous intervention in source, power consumption is remarkable to be linked up with national economy.(3) regression analysis, regression analysis need to pass through
Factor of influence and the historical data of electricity consumption are analyzed, and the data between morning are difficult to find, and the uncertainty of factor of influence is very
Greatly.
Per Unit GDP Energy Consumption is country (area) primary energy consumption figure (ton standard coal) and production in the regular period
The ratio of total value (ten thousand yuan), it is the leading indicator for reflecting the horizontal and energy-saving situation of energy-consuming, according to regional national economy
Development plan and energy consumption development trend, you can it is expected that this area specifies time primary energy total quantity consumed.Energy end-use
Terminal is obtained with energy equipment entrance after subtracting energy processing, conversion, the loss of accumulating intermediate link equal to primary energy consumption figure
The energy, electric energy account for final energy consumption proportion be weigh a state (area) electrifing degree an important indicator.
At present, per Unit GDP Energy Consumption and electric energy, which account for final energy consumption proportion the two indexs and be used to prediction more, once can
Source total quantity consumed, regional energy consumption and electrified development level are evaluated, there is not yet combining both carries out regional Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption
The explanation of prediction.
Application publication number discloses a kind of pre- based on base unit output value power consumption is determined for the A of CN 104376381 patent of invention
The method for surveying Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, GDP is converted into by the method for the invention determines base value, GDP and power consumption is had identical ratio
It is more basic, and consider that the industrial structure determines base unit output value power consumption forecast model to determining the influence of base unit output value power consumption, foundation,
So as to predict Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.The invention determines base unit output value power consumption using industrial structure accounting as explanatory variable, foundation
Forecast model, that predicts the following time determines base unit output value power consumption, and then predicts the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption in following time, helps
Predicted and medium-term and long-term power planning in carrying out electrical demand.However, the invention does not account for end using per Unit GDP Energy Consumption and electric energy
The two indexs of energy-consuming proportion are held to predict primary energy total quantity consumed, evaluate regional energy consumption and electrified developing water
It is flat.
Application publication number be the A of CN 107045657 patent of invention disclose a kind of Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption calculating system and
Method, wherein calculating system include memory module, acquisition module, input module, enterprise's Price elasticity value computing module, Quan She
Meeting power consumption measuring and calculating computing module, memory module are used for the benchmark time historical data for storing each enterprise in high energy industry
And prediction time planning data, by analyzing profitability and industry city using high energy enterprise as the big industrial user of representative
Field environment, establishes the Price elasticity forecast model of enterprise, predicts that following electricity consumption of enterprise forms on this basis, and final
To the power consumption demand of the whole society.However, the invention is that to use high energy enterprise be representative come the electricity consumption of the indirect predictions whole society
Amount demand, final energy consumption proportion the two indexs are not accounted for using per Unit GDP Energy Consumption and electric energy, and use the hair
Larger error be present with truth in the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of bright method prediction.
The content of the invention
In view of this, the purpose of the present invention is in view of the shortcomings of the prior art, there is provided one kind is predicted based on Dual-energy source index
The method of Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, calculated on the basis of certain historical years over the years can rate of exchange GDP, with reference to primary energy over the years consume
Total amount, per Unit GDP Energy Consumption value over the years is obtained, by establishing per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model, predict following time unit
GDP energy consumptions；Herein on basis, with reference to regional socio-economic development target, following time primary energy total quantity consumed is predicted,
And terminal energy sources proportion computation model is accounted for by electric energy, obtain following time Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption predicted value.
To reach above-mentioned purpose, the present invention uses following technical scheme：
A kind of method based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, comprises the following steps：
Step 1, by nominal GDP be converted on the basis of a certain time can rate of exchange GDP：
Wherein, the year on the basis of the n times, subscript n, n+1, n+2 ... n+m and n-1, n-2 ... n-m+1, n-m represent year
Part, Cn、Cn-m、Cn+mThe GDP growth indices in n times, n-m times and n+m times are represented respectively, and current year GDP growths refer to
A time obtains number for 100 above；
Step 2, with can rate of exchange GDP calculate historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption：
Wherein, etRepresent the per Unit GDP Energy Consumption in t times, EtThe primary energy total quantity consumed in t times is represented, can the rate of exchange
GDPtRepresent t times on the basis of the n times can rate of exchange GDP values；
Step 3, foundation historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption value, establish per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model：
ei=α1·i+c1
Wherein, i is historical years sequential value, eiThe per GDP energy consumption prediction in the time for being i for historical years sequential value
Value, the year on the basis of the n times, then n time sequential values are 1, n+1 time sequential values are 2 ... n+m times sequential value is 1+m, with
This analogizes；α1、c1The linear regression coeffficient and constant being respectively worth to according to historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption, prediction year
Part substitutes into per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model for t ＇ times corresponding time sequential value i=t ＇-n+1, that is, obtains predicting year
Part is the per GDP energy consumption predicted value in t ＇ times；
Step 4, on the basis of step 3, with reference to regional economic growth target, obtain predicting the consumption of time primary energy
Total amount, wherein, prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed=economy growth target × prediction time per Unit GDP Energy Consumption is pre-
Measured value；
Step 5, establish electric energy and account for final energy consumption proportion computation model：
Wherein, electric power equivalent be 0.1229 kilogram of standard coal of constant/kilowatt, β be means of non-electric energy sources process conversion coefficient；
Step 6, the equation model for substituting into historical years primary energy total quantity consumed, Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption in step 5
In, obtain historical years electric energy and account for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity；Final energy consumption proportion is accounted for further according to historical years electric energy
Value changes trend, substitute process, electrified levels direction, and the energy, power domain with reference to the newest electric energy in area and accordingly advise
Draw, prediction obtains future anticipation time electric energy and accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity；
Step 7, the prediction time that will be obtained in the prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed obtained in step 4, step 6
Electric energy accounts for final energy consumption proportion and substituted into respectively in the model of step 5, you can prediction time whole society's electricity consumption is calculated
Amount.
Meanwhile the present invention also can account for the progress of final energy consumption proportion to predicting Energy end-use, the electric energy in time
Prediction.
In steps of 5, β=0.85~0.95, now station service, network loss account for the proportion of Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption and kept throughout the year
It is stable.
The beneficial effects of the invention are as follows：
Larger error be present with truth for the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption for using conventional methods prediction in the present invention
Problem, there is provided a kind of brand-new Forecasting Methodology, this Forecasting Methodology are to account for final energy consumption based on per Unit GDP Energy Consumption and electric energy
Nominal GDP is converted into by the method for being capable of Accurate Prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of proportion Dual-energy source index, this Forecasting Methodology first
On the basis of a certain time can rate of exchange GDP；Then with can rate of exchange GDP calculate historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption；Then foundation
Historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption value, establishes per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model；Then in conjunction with economy growth target
(such as government planning) obtains predicting time primary energy total quantity consumed；Then by historical years primary energy total quantity consumed, complete
Society's electricity consumption amount substitution electric energy is accounted in final energy consumption proportion computation model accounts for terminal energy sources to obtain historical years electric energy
Consume rate of specific gravity；Final energy consumption rate of specific gravity variation tendency is accounted for according to historical years electric energy, substituted with reference to the newest electric energy in area
Process, electrified levels direction, and the energy, power domain are accordingly planned, are obtained future anticipation time electric energy and are accounted for terminal energy
Consume rate of specific gravity in source；Prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed, prediction time electric energy are finally accounted for into final energy consumption proportion point
Not Dai Ru electric energy account in final energy consumption proportion computation model, you can be calculated prediction time Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption.
The present invention by eliminate price factor can rate of exchange GDP calculate per Unit GDP Energy Consumption over the years, and pass through per GDP
Energy consumption regressive prediction model, country or local economic development are planned to predict non-coming year primary energy total quantity consumed；By electric energy
Account for final energy consumption proportion computation model, the input by model is primary energy consumption figure over the years, whole society's electricity consumption over the years
Amount, calculates electric energy over the years and accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity, and then account for final energy consumption proportion value changes by electric energy again and become
Gesture, the newest electric energy in area substitute process, electrified levels direction, predict that non-coming year electric energy accounts for final energy consumption proportion
Value；Herein on basis, above-mentioned predicted value i.e. non-coming year primary energy total quantity consumed, non-coming year electric energy is accounted for terminal energy sources and disappeared
Expense rate of specific gravity accounts for the input of final energy consumption proportion computation model as electric energy, and output obtains the electricity consumption of the non-coming year whole society
Amount, so can as the foundation of electricity needs Plan, efficiently contribute to carry out power supply and demand situation it is expected that, power planning.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Embodiment
To make the purpose, technical scheme and advantage of the embodiment of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with the embodiment of the present invention
Accompanying drawing, the technical scheme of the embodiment of the present invention is clearly and completely described.Obviously, described embodiment is this hair
Bright part of the embodiment, rather than whole embodiments.Based on described embodiments of the invention, the common skill in this area
The every other embodiment that art personnel are obtained, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
As shown in figure 1, by taking the prediction of Henan Province's 2017-2020 Analyzing Total Electricity Consumptions as an example, one kind is based on Dual-energy source index
The method for predicting Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, comprises the following steps：
Step 1, by nominal GDP be converted on the basis of a certain year can rate of exchange GDP；
In the present embodiment, using Henan Province's correlation annual data, data source is in over the years《Henan statistical yearbook》, Henan
Statistics Bureau of Shanxi Province website.Using 2010-2016 as the sample phase, 2017-2020 is time span of forecast, the related data such as table 1 of sample phase
It is shown：
Table 1
In the present embodiment, being calculated in year on the basis of 2010 can rate of exchange GDP.Then 2010 can rate of exchange GDP be still
23092.4 hundred million yuan, 2011 can rate of exchange GDP be hundred million yuan of 23092.4*111.9/100=25845.9,2012 can rate of exchange GDP
For 23092.4* (111.9/100) * (110.1/100)=28468.2 hundred million yuan, by that analogy.
Step 2, with can rate of exchange GDP calculate historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption；
Per Unit GDP Energy Consumption calculation formula is：
The sample issue evidence obtained according to above-mentioned steps is shown in Table 2：
Table 2
Step 3, establish per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model；
According to data in table 2, trend prediction regression analysis is carried out to per Unit GDP Energy Consumption in excel, selected through comparing
Linear regression type, regressive prediction model formula are：
ei=-0.0296i+0.82, (R2=0.9586)
Wherein i is historical years sequential value (sequence in 2010 is that sequence in 1,2011 is 2, by that analogy), eiFor history
Time sequential value is the per Unit GDP Energy Consumption predicted value in i time.
Prediction time corresponding time sequential value i=t-2010+1 is substituted into per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model, i.e.,
Obtain predicting that the per Unit GDP Energy Consumption predicted value in time 2017-2020 is as shown in table 3：
Table 3
Step 4, on the basis of step 3, with reference to " major economic indicators in Henan Province's regional economy social development target
Average annual growth rate is higher than average national level, and total output value increases by 8% or so every year, higher than 1 percentage point of average national level with
On " developing goal, it is contemplated that 2017-2018 Henan Province GDP average annual growth rates about 8.2%-8.3%, then obtain predict the time river
It is as shown in table 3 that south saves total output value.Henan Province's prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed is obtained accordingly, i.e.,：Predict the time once
Total energy consumption=prediction time total output value × prediction time per Unit GDP Energy Consumption predicted value, occurrence such as table 3 in this example
It is shown；
Step 5, establish Henan Province's electric energy and account for final energy consumption proportion computation model：
Wherein, electric power equivalent be 0.1229 kilogram of standard coal of constant/kilowatt, β be means of non-electric energy sources process conversion coefficient, β=
0.85~0.95；
Step 6, it is that primary energy total quantity consumed, the Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption of 2010-2016 historical years substitutes into by the sample phase
In equation model in step 5, obtaining historical years electric energy, to account for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity as shown in table 3.According to what is obtained
2010-2016 Henan Province electric energy accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity and understood, during this period, this value increases about 0.2% every year.
Electric energy accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity and regional economic development, electrified level are closely related, and is substituted by electric energy and promote journey
Degree influences obvious.What according in August, 2016, the Committee of Development and Reform of Henan Province promulgated《Henan Province's electric energy substitutes working embodiment (2016-
The year two thousand twenty)》In " the year two thousand twenty, energy source terminal consumptive link formed electric energy substitute dissipate burn coal, 6,500,000 tons of fuel oil total quantity consumed
The ability of standard coal, drive electric coal account for consumption of coal proportion improve about 2.6 percentage points, electric energy account for final energy consumption proportion
The object of planning of more than 2 percentage points of raising ", it is contemplated that 2017-2020 Henan Province electric energy accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity year
About 0.4% is improved, it is specific as shown in table 3；
Step 7, the 2017-2020 obtained in step 4 predicted into time primary energy total quantity consumed, is obtained in step 6
Prediction time electric energy accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity and substituted into respectively in the model of step 5, you can it is complete that the prediction time is calculated
Society's electricity consumption amount is as shown in table 3.
Meanwhile the present invention also can account for the progress of final energy consumption proportion to predicting Energy end-use, the electric energy in time
Prediction.
Finally illustrate, the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical solutions of the present invention and it is unrestricted, this area is common
Other modifications or equivalent substitution that technical staff is made to technical scheme, without departing from the technology of the present invention side
The spirit and scope of case, it all should cover among scope of the presently claimed invention.
Claims (2)
- A kind of 1. method based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：Step 1, by nominal GDP be converted on the basis of a certain time can rate of exchange GDP：Wherein, the year on the basis of the n times, subscript n, n+1, n+2 ... n+m and n-1, n-2 ... n-m+1, n-m expression of years, Cn、 Cn-m、Cn+mRepresent the GDP growth indices in n times, n-m times and n+m times respectively, and current year GDP growth indices with A upper time obtains for 100；Step 2, with can rate of exchange GDP calculate historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption：Wherein, etRepresent the per Unit GDP Energy Consumption in t times, EtThe primary energy total quantity consumed in t times is represented, can rate of exchange GDPtRepresent T times on the basis of the n times can rate of exchange GDP values；Step 3, foundation historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption value, establish per Unit GDP Energy Consumption regressive prediction model：ei=α1·i+c1Wherein, i is historical years sequential value, the year on the basis of the n times, then n time sequential values be 1, n+1 time sequential values be 2nd ... n+m times sequential value is 1+m, by that analogy；α1、c1Respectively it is worth to according to historical years per Unit GDP Energy Consumption linear Regression coefficient and constant, it is that t ＇ times corresponding time sequential value i=t ＇-n+1 substitute into per Unit GDP Energy Consumption recurrence in the prediction time Forecast model, that is, obtain predicting the per Unit GDP Energy Consumption predicted value that the time is the t ＇ times；Step 4, on the basis of step 3, with reference to regional economic growth target, obtain predicting time primary energy total quantity consumed, Wherein, time primary energy total quantity consumed=economy growth target × prediction time per Unit GDP Energy Consumption predicted value is predicted；Step 5, establish electric energy and account for final energy consumption proportion computation model：Wherein, electric power equivalent be 0.1229 kilogram of standard coal of constant/kilowatt, β be means of non-electric energy sources process conversion coefficient；Step 6, by historical years primary energy total quantity consumed, Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption substitute into step 5 in equation model in, obtain Historical years electric energy accounts for final energy consumption rate of specific gravity；Final energy consumption proportion value changes are accounted for further according to historical years electric energy to become Gesture, substitute process, electrified levels direction, and the energy, power domain with reference to the newest electric energy in area and accordingly plan, measure in advance Final energy consumption rate of specific gravity is accounted for future anticipation time electric energy；Step 7, the prediction time electric energy obtained in the prediction time primary energy total quantity consumed obtained in step 4, step 6 accounted for Final energy consumption proportion substitutes into the model of step 5 respectively, you can prediction time Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption is calculated.
- A kind of 2. method based on Dual-energy source index prediction Analyzing Total Electricity Consumption according to claim 1, it is characterised in that： In steps of 5, β=0.85~0.95.
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