CN107679630A - Maintenance operation time estimation method based on proportional maintenance model - Google Patents
Maintenance operation time estimation method based on proportional maintenance model Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a maintenance operation time estimation method based on a proportional maintenance model, which is a feasible method for effectively estimating quantitative indexes of product maintainability in a design stage by establishing a mapping model of the maintainability qualitative attributes and the maintenance operation time according to the analysis of the influence relationship of each maintainability qualitative attribute on the maintenance operation time and by utilizing the thought of the proportional maintenance model. The invention has the following characteristics: firstly, a relational model of maintainability qualitative attributes and maintainability quantitative indexes is established, and the product maintenance operation time can be estimated in the design stage according to the maintainability qualitative attribute evaluation value, so that the dependence of the maintenance time estimation on historical experience data in the design stage is reduced; and secondly, the influence of the relevant maintainability attributes on the maintenance operation time is comprehensively considered, the standard maintenance operation time is corrected to meet the actual maintenance condition, and the precision of the estimation of the maintenance time index in the design stage is improved.
Description
Technical field
It is particularly a kind of estimated in Design Stage Maintainability index the present invention relates to maintainability field of engineering technology
New method, estimate the maintenance activity time available for the design phase, it is contemplated that Product maintenance quantitative target.
Background technology
Maintainability quantitative target is one of core content of design phase maintainability distribution, and it is as product user and orders
Purchaser weighs the horizontal main yardstick of Product maintenance, is the important evidence of capability of maintenance design decision-making.Maintainability quantitatively refers at present
Mark method of estimation can substantially be divided into two classes：Quantitative target appraisal procedure based on data statistics and based on design attributes analysis
Quantitative target appraisal procedure.
Quantitative target based on data statistics is assessed mainly based on field statistics data or historical empirical data storehouse,
Calculated by certain model or method and determine system maintenance index.MIL-HDBK-472《Maintainability
Prediction》And GJB/Z57-94《Maintainability conflict with it is expected that handbook》The Maintainability index method for predicting of offer belongs to mostly
This is a kind of.However, the basic data provided in presently relevant standard and method is mostly the maintenance activity time ideally
The true activity duration differs greatly in data, with actual maintenance process, causes the design phase to be difficult to accurately estimate using these data
Count maintainability quantitative target.In addition, the maintenance time method of estimation based on Predetermined Time Standard is fallen within, this is a kind of, and it is from man-machine
The angle of effect is set out, and is widely used in the operating time estimation of pipelining, but for relative complex maintenance operation
Applicability is poor.
Quantitative target method of estimation based on design attributes analysis is mainly according to maintainability qualitative design attribute and maintenance
Relevance between property quantitative target, relational model between the two is established to estimate maintainability quantitative target.Work as maintainability
When basic data lacks or is difficult to obtain, this kind of method can be used for design phase estimation maintainability quantitative target.At present, this kind of side
The assessment models of method are mostly to be established for special object using regression analysis.Require that a large amount of types are identical but tie during modeling
The different product of structure is as test sample or possesses relevant statistics, is often difficult to possess these samples or data in practice
Condition.
The content of the invention
For engineering, historical data is incomplete and the problem of normal data deviation is big in practice, to overcome in the prior art
Existing deficiency, the present invention provide a kind of maintenance time method of estimation based on ratio Maintenance Model, adoption rate Maintenance Model
Maintainability quantitative attributes are described to the influencing mechanism of Maintainability index, during according to related attribution of maintainability design amendment maintenance activity
Between master data, with reference to maintenance process model using accumulated time estimation Product maintenance quantitative target, it is ensured that the design phase tie up
The precision and efficiency of repairing property quantitative target estimation, reach Design Stage is objective, accurate, systematically estimated maintainability quantifies
The purpose of index.
Therefore, the present invention adopts the following technical scheme that：
A kind of maintenance activity Time Estimation Method based on ratio Maintenance Model, comprises the following steps：
S1 determines to influence the maintainability quantitative attributes of maintenance activity object, selected a kind of maintenance activity object, and is directed to and is somebody's turn to do
Maintenance operation performance testing under class maintenance activity object designs difference maintainability quantitative attributes state；
The maintainability quantitative attributes that S1.1 determines to influence maintenance activity object are accessibility, human-water harmony, maintenance disassembly
With maintenance security, wherein maintenance disassembly includes assembly connection mode and assembly connection size, maintenance disassembly is maintenance
The structure attribute of manipulating object inherently；Accessibility includes visual and operating space, human-water harmony include operating attitude and
Strength is operated, accessibility, human-water harmony and maintenance security are the attached attributes of concrete operations object in maintenance process.
S1.2 selectes a kind of maintenance activity object；
A kind of maintenance activity object selected refers to all with identical assembly connection mode but with different dresses
The general name of maintenance activity object with size for connection；
S1.3 is directed to the maintenance behaviour under a kind of maintenance activity object designs difference maintainability quantitative attributes state selected
Make performance testing；
Under conditions of ensureing that maintenance security is optimal, based on maintainability all-around test stand (such as Publication No.
204087552U, a kind of maintainability all-around test stand that the utility model patent that publication date is on 01 07th, 2015 provides)
Adjust the visuality of maintenance activity object, operating space, operating attitude and operation strength this four maintainability quantitative attributes, design
Maintenance operation performance testing under different maintainability quantitative attributes states.Determine the qualitative category of maintainability corresponding to maintenance activity object
Property evaluation vector is Z=(z1, z2, z3, z4), wherein z1、z2、z3And z4Represent respectively visuality, operating space, operating attitude and
Operate strength.
In maintenance operation performance testing, visual, operating attitude and operation three attribute factors of strength are taken into four water
It is flat such as excellent, good, medium and poor；By maintenance operation space attribute factor take six levels as it is fine, good, preferable, it is poor
And difference, built according to the varying level state that visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation four attribute factors of strength are taken
Orthogonal test scheme, maintenance operation performance testing is carried out, wherein being defined on visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operating physical force
Four attributes of amount are when being in best level (i.e. visual, operating attitude and operate three attribute factors of strength be in " excellent " with
And maintenance operation space attribute factor takes " fine ") corresponding to be maintenance activity object normal condition.
S2 selectes a maintenance manipulating object in a kind of maintenance activity object that s1.2 is selected and carries out maintenance operation operation
Experiment, record obtain maintenance activity time statistic T and the corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector of maintenance activity object
Z, obtain m group maintenance operation performance testing data (Zi, Ti), i=1, the maintenance operation operation under 2 ..., m and one group of normal condition
Test data (Z0, T0)；
The distribution of maintenance activity times of the S3 based on the maintenance activity object selected in S2, solves its corresponding benchmark respectively
Repair rate and actual repair rate, relation between the two is then established by the principle of ratio Maintenance Model, by the qualitative category of maintainability
Property influence function coefficient estimation problem be converted into linear regression problem, estimation obtains the influence letter of each maintainability quantitative attributes
Number system number.
S3.1 solves benchmark repair rate and actual repair rate
For the maintenance activity time T of Normal DistributionD~N (θ, σ2), wherein θ is maintenance activity time average, and σ is
Maintenance activity time standard is poor, and maintenance probability density function is：
Maintainability function is：
Then repair rate function is in the case of normal distribution：
According to the maintenance operation performance testing data obtained in S2, (this refers to the maintenance activity time of Normal Distribution
Statistic T), calculate the benchmark repair rate and different dimensional of selected maintenance activity object in S2 respectively by formula (1), (2) and (3)
Actual repair rate under repairing property quantitative attributes state.
Principles of the S3.2 based on ratio Maintenance Model, the actual repair rate function mu (t, Z) of selected maintenance activity object in S2
The product of benchmark repair rate function and properties affect function is can be described as, i.e.,
Wherein, t is the time, is the common variable in repair rate function, μ0(t) it is the benchmark repair rate of maintenance activity object
Function, mainly determine that is, the benchmark maintainability of maintenance activity object is by tieing up by the inherent structure attribute of maintenance activity object in itself
Repair disassembly decision；ψ (Z β) be the attached attribute of maintenance activity process influence function, mainly express accessibility, human-water harmony and
Repair the influence of security attributes；Z is the evaluation vector of maintainability quantitative attributes corresponding to maintenance activity object；z0i(i=1,
2 ..., n) and zi(i=1,2 ..., n) represents a reference value and actual value of maintainability quantitative attributes respectively；β is that maintainability is qualitative
Properties affect function coefficients column vector；βi(i=1,2 ..., n) is corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes to maintainability quantitative target
Influence coefficient；N be consider maintainability quantitative attributes number, the present invention in n be 4.
Comparative example Maintenance Model formula is after formula (4) both sides are taken the logarithm, for β estimation problem, you can be converted to one
Individual n members linear regression problem, maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient is estimated according to maintenance operation performance testing data regression
Column vector β, that is, obtain influence factor beta of the maintainability quantitative attributes to maintainability quantitative targeti(i=1,2 ..., n).
Maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector β is by the attached attribute pair of the operations such as accessibility, human-water harmony
What the Influencing Mechanism of maintenance activity object maintainability determined.For with different assembly connection sizes but assembly connection mode phase
Same maintenance activity object, the attached attribute of operation is consistent to the Influencing Mechanism of its maintainability, and ratio Maintenance Model is to be tieed up in formula (4)
Influence coefficient of the repairing property quantitative attributes to maintainability quantitative target is identical.
S4 determines the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes in a kind of maintenance activity object that S1.2 is selected
Benchmark repair rate；Build reality of the different maintenance manipulating objects under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes in same class maintenance activity object
The solved function of border average maintenance activity duration.
The maintenance activity object point of different assembly connection sizes in a kind of maintenance activity object that S4.1 selectes to S1.2
Carry out maintenance operation performance testing not under its normal condition, assembly connection size and its benchmark are established using regression analysis
Relation between repair rate, so as to estimate to obtain the benchmark repair rate corresponding to the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes
Function mu0(t)。
S4.2 is the calculating of actual repair rate in formula (4) with reference to ratio Maintenance Model in S3 according to the definition of repair rate
Method, the actual maintainability function of the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes are：
Wherein M0(t) for different assembly connection sizes maintenance activity object benchmark maintainability function, it is expressed as：
On the basis of function of maintainability basic definition, reality of the maintenance activity object under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes
Average maintenance activity duration solved function is：
Wherein m (t) is maintenance time density function.
The application is analyzed and evaluated for the maintainability quantitative attributes of specific maintenance activity object, obtains the maintenance activity
The maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z of object；Wherein (bibliography of the method for assay is as follows：[1] is civilian in land
Aircraft maintainability Parallel Design key technology research [D] Nanjing：Nanjing Aero-Space University, 2008. [2] Xie Kai bullet trains
Cab equipment maintenanceability study on assessing method [D] Beijing：Beijing Jiaotong University, 2011.).
The present invention selects a maintenance activity object to determine its maintainability quantitative attributes to maintainability by S2 and S3 first
The influence factor beta of quantitative targeti(i=1,2 ..., n).And with different assembly connection sizes, still assembly connection mode is identical
Maintenance activity object, the attached attribute of its operation is consistent to the Influencing Mechanism of its maintainability, therefore attribute in ratio Maintenance Model
Influence function coefficient is identical.S4.1 determines the benchmark repair rate function of the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes.Tieing up
Repair the benchmark repair rate function μ of manipulating object0(t) (benchmark maintenance activity time statistic T0) and maintainability quantitative attributes to dimension
The influence factor beta of repairing property quantitative targetiIn the case of (t=1,2 ..., n) is known, is repaired and made using the actual average in S4.2
Industry time solved function (i.e. formula (7)), which calculates, estimates that the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes is determined in corresponding maintainability
The actual average maintenance activity time under the influence of property attribute evaluation vector Z.
Compared with prior art, the invention has the advantages that：
A) relational model of maintainability quantitative attributes and maintainability quantitative target is established based on ratio Maintenance Model, enters one
Step specify that Influencing Mechanism of the maintainability quantitative attributes to maintenance time index, Product maintenance can be designed and analysis offer is auxiliary
Help support；
B) the product repairing activity duration can be estimated according to the evaluation of maintainability quantitative attributes in Design Stage, broken away from
The hysteresis quality of conventional method, reduce dependence of the maintenance time design phase estimation to historical empirical data；
C) effective expression influences of the related maintainability quantitative attributes to the maintenance activity time, to the standard repair activity duration
It is modified the precision for meet actual repair, improving the estimation of maintenance time design phase index；The maintenance of the present invention
Time index method of estimation provides effectively estimation maintenance time for the maintainability verification based on virtual emulation in a sense
Method.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is pressurized strut chief component title and scheme of installation.
Embodiment
To make the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing to embodiment party of the present invention
Formula is described in further detail.
It is a kind of flow chart of the maintenance activity Time Estimation Method based on ratio Maintenance Model of the present invention referring to Fig. 1, this
Invention designs maintenance operation performance testing on the basis of the maintainability quantitative attributes that analysis determines influence maintenance activity, according to
Maintenance activity data establish the ratio Maintenance Model of benchmark maintenance activity time complexity curve, estimate further combined with maintenance process model
The maintainability time of product, dependence of the design phase maintainability quantitative target estimation to historical empirical data is reduced, is ensured simultaneously
The precision and efficiency of index estimation.
S1 determines to influence the maintainability quantitative attributes of maintenance activity object, selected a kind of maintenance activity object, and is directed to and is somebody's turn to do
Maintenance operation performance testing under class maintenance activity object designs difference maintainability quantitative attributes state.
It is determined that the maintainability quantitative attributes for influenceing maintenance activity object are accessibility, human-water harmony, maintenance disassembly and dimension
Security is repaiied, wherein maintenance disassembly (assembly connection mode, assembly connection size) is the knot of maintenance activity object inherently
Structure attribute；Accessibility (visual, operating space), human-water harmony (operating attitude, operation strength) and maintenance security are by tieing up
Repair manipulating object peripheral structure and environment determines, be the attached attribute of concrete operations object in maintenance process.
A kind of maintenance activity object selected refers to all with identical assembly connection mode but with different dresses
The general name of maintenance activity object with size for connection.It is i.e. selected to be threaded to by taking threaded connection as an example in the present embodiment
A kind of maintenance activity object carries out maintenance dismounting operation experiment.
Inherent structure attribute (repairing disassembly) identical maintenance activity object under different attached attribute conditions, its
The maintainability that shows simultaneously differs.Here maintenance disassembly has corresponded to the benchmark maintainability of maintenance activity object, and repairs and make
Attached attribute in industry object maintenance process is similar to the actual maintainability that external factor affects maintenance activity object.Due to reality
It is required to avoid repairing safety issue in the engineering of border to ensure maintenance safety, therefore ensures during maintenance operation performance testing design
It is optimal to repair security attributes, mainly considers accessibility and human-water harmony attribute, both are refined and is decomposed into visual, operation sky
Between, four attributes of operating attitude and operation strength carry out maintenance operation performance testing designs.
It is Z=(z to determine maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector corresponding to maintenance activity object1, z2, z3, z4), wherein z1、
z2、z3And z4Visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation strength are represented respectively., will be visual in maintenance operation performance testing
Property, operating attitude and operation three attribute factors of strength take four levels for example excellent, good, medium and poor；Maintenance operation is empty
Between attribute factor take six levels as it is fine, good, preferable, it is poor and poor, according to visuality, operating space, operating attitude
The varying level state taken with operation four attribute factors of strength builds orthogonal test scheme, carries out maintenance operation operation examination
Test, wherein be defined on visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation four attributes of strength when being in best level (
Depending on property, operating attitude and operation three attribute factors of strength are in " excellent " and maintenance operation space attribute factor takes " fine ")
Corresponding is the normal condition of maintenance activity object；
In the present embodiment：In maintenance operation performance testing, for the maintenance under each group of maintainability quantitative attributes state
Manipulating object carries out 30 maintenance operation performance testings, and this 30 maintenance operation performance testings are used by 5 testing crews
Everyone operates 6 times same tool respectively, 30 data samples is obtained, to carry out data statistic analysis.Wherein this 5 testing crews
Fitness, the state of mind are good, by identical training on maintenance, possess identical maintenance operation technical ability.
M8 screws of the S2 using thread turns as 16 circles is that maintenance activity object carries out maintenance operation performance testing, and record obtains
Maintenance activity time statistic T and corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z.
1) the maintenance activity object of threaded form is directed to, defines visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operating physical force
The state measured when four attributes are optimal is its normal condition.Selected thread turns is that the M8 screws of 16 circles carry out benchmark maintenance
Performance testing is operated, obtains benchmark dismounting activity duration T of the threaded connection0~N (14.14,1.222), i.e. benchmark activity duration
Obey average θ0=14.14s, standard deviation sigma0=1.22s normal distribution, corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector are Z0。
2) visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation four attribute factors of strength are chosen and carry out Orthogonal Experiment and Design
And analysis, structure orthogonal test scheme carry out deviation performance testing.The water-glass and metric of each attribute factor such as institute of table 1
Show, do not consider the poor or very poor extreme case of association attributes factor, visual, operating attitude and operation strength attribute factor take four
Individual level, maintenance operation space attribute factor take six levels.
The Orthogonal Experiment and Design factor level table of table 1
According to the thought of Orthogonal Experiment and Design, L is chosen32(43× 6) orthogonal arrage, generation orthogonal test scheme are as shown in table 2.
Maintenance operation performance testing is carried out for every battery of tests in 32 groups of testing programs in orthogonal test scheme.Maintenance
Operate in performance testing, carry out 30 maintenance operations for the maintenance activity object under each group of maintainability quantitative attributes state
Performance testing, this 30 maintenance operation performance testings are that using same tool, everyone operates 6 times respectively by 5 testing crews, are remembered
The maintenance activity time data of maintenance operation performance testing each time is recorded, carries out distribution model test, and calculates average and variance,
Obtain that the average, standard deviation and distribution pattern result of maintenance activity time observed value are as shown in table 3, and corresponding maintainability is qualitative
Attribute evaluation vector is Zi, i=1,2 ..., m.
The maintenance activity orthogonal test scheme of table 2
So, by the performance testing of benchmark maintenance operation and deviation maintenance operation performance testing, it can obtain one group of benchmark shape
Test data (Z under state0, T0) and 32 groups of (being determined by orthogonal test scheme) deviation performance testing data (Zi, Ti), i=1,
2 ..., 32.Every group of test data includes maintenance activity object maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector and corresponding activity duration system
Metering.
Table 3-dimensional repaiies operation orthogonal experiments
S3 based on obtained in S2 selected maintenance activity object (thread turns be 16 circle M8 screws) maintenance activity when
Between distribution, solve corresponding benchmark repair rate and actual repair rate respectively, then by ratio Maintenance Model principle establish both
Between relation, the influence function coefficient estimation problem of maintainability quantitative attributes is converted into linear regression problem, estimation obtains
The influence function coefficient of each maintainability quantitative attributes.
1) benchmark repair rate and actual repair rate are solved
For the maintenance activity time T of Normal DistributionD~N (θ, σ2), maintenance probability density function is：
Maintainability function is：
Then repair rate function is in the case of normal distribution：
According to the maintenance operation performance testing data obtained in S2, the fillet of screw is calculated by formula (1), (2) and (3) respectively
Number is the actual repair rate under the benchmark repair rate and different maintainability quantitative attributes states of the M8 screws of 16 circles.
2) according to ratio Maintenance Model formula, the relation between actual repair rate and benchmark repair rate is：
Wherein βi(i=1,2,3,4) is the influence coefficient of corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes；Actual repair rate μ (t, Zi) and base
Quasi- repair rate μ0(t) it is based respectively on test data TiAnd T0It is calculated by normal distribution repair rate formula, T0~N (θ0, σ0 2) be
Benchmark activity duration data, corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector are Z0；Ti~N (θi, σi 2) (i=1,2 ..., m) be
Orthogonal test deviation activity duration data, corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector are Zi。
For the ease of estimating maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector β, formula (4) both sides are taken the logarithm, can be obtained：
For β estimation problem, you can be converted into 4 yuan of linear regression problems, its mathematical modeling is：
β in formulakFor parameter to be estimated；yi=ln (μ (t, Zi))-ln(μ0(t) it is) variable of observable, because of xkiDifference and
It is different；xki=Δ z0ikIt is the difference of actual maintainability quantitative attributes value and normal condition property value for controllable variable.
Regression analysis is carried out using data statistic analysis software SPSS, estimation obtains each maintainability in ratio Maintenance Model
Quantitative attributes influence threaded connection maintainability function coefficients be：
β1=-6.555, β2=-37.358, β3=-10.356, β4=-8.226.
Wherein the coefficient correlation of regression model is 0.994, and the model that regression estimates obtain is effective.
Maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector β is by the attached attribute pair of the operations such as accessibility, human-water harmony
What the Influencing Mechanism of maintenance activity object maintainability determined.It is attached for assembly connection mode identical maintenance activity object, operation
Category attribute is consistent to the Influencing Mechanism of its maintainability, and properties affect function coefficients are essentially identical in ratio Maintenance Model.Therefore, exist
Maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z=(z1, z2, z3, z4) under the influence of threaded connection dismounting maintenance activity actual maintenance rate can
It is expressed as：
μ (t, Z)=μ0(t)exp[-6.56(1-z1)-37.36(1-z2)-10.36(1-z3)-8.23(1-z4)] (7)
Wherein μ0(t) it is the benchmark repair rate of threaded connection object, is determined by the maintenance disassembly attribute of maintenance activity object
It is fixed；z1、z2、z3And z4Visuality, operating space, operating attitude and the evaluation for operating strength attribute are represented successively；Under normal condition
Z0=(1,1,1,1).
S4 determines the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes in the 51.2 a kind of maintenance activity objects selected
Benchmark repair rate；Build reality of the different maintenance manipulating objects under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes in same class maintenance activity object
The solved function of border average maintenance activity duration.
1) for threaded connection object, repair demolition and installation are carried out to various sizes of be threaded under normal condition
Performance testing, the relation established using regression analysis between assembly connection size and its benchmark repair rate, so as to estimate
To the benchmark repair rate function of maintenance activity object, length is threadedly coupled here and is represented using thread turns.
By experiment and regression analysis, the benchmark activity duration ginseng of different size threaded connection repair demolitions and installation
Number can be calculated as：
Dismounting：θ0=0.606L+4.489, σ0=0.102L-0.39
Installation：θ0=0.637L+4.233, σ0=0.104L-0.285
Wherein L is the number of turns of threaded connection.
According to normal distribution repair rate calculation formula, you can obtain various sizes of threaded connection repair demolition and installation and make
The benchmark repair rate function μ of industry0(t)。
2) according to repair rate, maintainability and the relation between maintenance time, maintenance activity object is in maintainability quantitative attributes
Under the influence of actual average maintenance activity time solved function be：
For obeying distribution N (θ, σ2) the maintenance activity time, benchmark maintainability function form is complicated, and above formula is difficult to directly
Integration obtains associated expression, and it solves the average maintenance activity durationSolve distributed constant θ.
Definition based on ratio Maintenance Model principle and repair rate, has：
The maintenance time density function expression formula of normal distribution is substituted into formula (9), then had：
As known maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z, by t=θ0With t=θ0+σ0Above formula is substituted into respectively to establish an equation group,
And then solve and obtain distributed constant θ and σ2, i.e. maintenance activity object actually ties up under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z
Repair activity duration Normal Distribution N (θ, σ2), its average maintenance activity duration
Analyzed to obtain corresponding evaluation vector Z for specific maintenance activity object, utilize the maintenance activity time in S4
Solved function calculates estimation manipulating object actual maintenance activity time under the influence of evaluation vector Z.On this basis, with reference to maintenance
Process is further estimated to obtain Product maintenance quantitative target to the decomposition model of maintenance activity using time-integration method.
1) various sizes of threaded connection object is directed to, carries out maintenance dismounting under different maintainability quantitative attributes states and makees
Industry is tested, and as test sample, while using the step 4 estimation maintenance dismounting operation time, analyzes its estimated accuracy, no
The observed value for repairing the dismounting operation time is threadedly coupled with size and estimate is as shown in table 4.
Maintenance dismounting operation time Estimate test data of the table 4 based on ratio Maintenance Model
The average relative error of dismounting operation time average θ estimations is 16.6%, maximum relative error 23.9%.Consider
To the actual conditions of design phase maintainability distribution, the evaluations of maintainability quantitative attributes has an ambiguity in itself, and data
Collect and estimation is inevitably present deviation, it is taken as that maintenance activity time Estimate acquired results are gratifying.
Embodiment 2 is repaired a die so that the maintenance of aircraft pressurized strut is changed as an example using one kind provided by the invention based on scale dimension
The maintenance time method of estimation of type estimates that it repairs replacing construction.The title and piece mark of pressurized strut chief component are as schemed
Shown in 2, pressurized strut B maintenance Renewal process is decomposed into maintenance activity, and to connection type corresponding to each maintenance activity and
Maintainability quantitative attributes are analyzed and evaluated, then using the corresponding threaded connection maintenance dismounting operation of method estimation of step 4
Time, as shown in table 5, wherein removing, to change operation activity duration of pressurized strut be rule of thumb to provide.
Table 5 changes pressurized strut maintenance task time Estimate table
According to the maintenance process and the estimate of each maintenance activity time that pressurized strut is changed in table 5, obtain changing and make
The estimate of dynamic cylinder B maintenances replacing construction is 21.25min, and pressurized strut actual maintenance time is about 24min, estimation it is relative
Error is 11.5%, shows that this method engineering can be overcome historical data is incomplete in practice and normal data deviation is big to ask
Topic, the actual maintenance time of product is effectively estimated according to design in Design Stage.
The present invention is according to influence relationship analysis of each maintainability quantitative attributes to the maintenance activity time, proportion of utilization maintenance mould
The thought of type establishes the mapping model of maintainability quantitative attributes and maintenance activity time, effectively estimates product repairing for the design phase
Property quantitative target a kind of feasible method is provided.The invention has the characteristics that：First, establish maintainability quantitative attributes and dimension
The relational model of repairing property quantitative target, when the design phase can estimate product repairing operation according to maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation of estimate
Between, reduce dependence of the maintenance time design phase estimation to historical empirical data；Second, consider related maintainability attribute pair
The influence of maintenance activity time, the standard repair activity duration is modified to meet actual repair, improves design rank
The precision of section maintenance time index estimation.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of maintenance activity Time Estimation Method based on ratio Maintenance Model, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
S1 determines to influence the maintainability quantitative attributes of maintenance activity object, selected a kind of maintenance activity object, and is tieed up for such
Repair the maintenance operation performance testing under the different maintainability quantitative attributes states of manipulating object design；
S1.1 determines that the maintainability quantitative attributes for influenceing maintenance activity object are accessibility, human-water harmony, maintenance disassembly and dimension
Security is repaiied, wherein maintenance disassembly includes assembly connection mode and assembly connection size, maintenance disassembly is maintenance activity
The structure attribute of object inherently；Accessibility, which includes visual and operating space, human-water harmony, includes operating attitude and operation
Strength, accessibility, human-water harmony and maintenance security are the attached attributes of concrete operations object in maintenance process；
S1.2 selectes a kind of maintenance activity object；
A kind of maintenance activity object selected refers to all with identical assembly connection mode but with different assembling companies
Connect the general name of the maintenance activity object of size；
The maintenance operation that S1.3 is directed under a kind of maintenance activity object designs difference maintainability quantitative attributes state selected is made
Industry is tested；
Under conditions of ensureing that maintenance security is optimal, based on the visual of maintainability all-around test stand regulation maintenance activity object
Property, operating space, operating attitude and operation strength this four maintainability quantitative attributes, design different maintainability quantitative attributes states
Under maintenance operation performance testing；It is Z=(z to determine maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector corresponding to maintenance activity object1,z2,
z3,z4), wherein z1、z2、z3And z4Visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation strength are represented respectively；
In maintenance operation performance testing, visual, operating attitude and operation three attribute factors of strength are taken into four levels such as
It is excellent, good, medium and poor；By maintenance operation space attribute factor take six levels as it is fine, good, preferable, it is poor and
Difference, built just according to the varying level state that visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation four attribute factors of strength are taken
Testing program is handed over, carries out maintenance operation performance testing, wherein being defined on visuality, operating space, operating attitude and operation strength
Four attributes when being in best level it is corresponding be maintenance activity object normal condition；
S2 selectes a maintenance manipulating object in a kind of maintenance activity object that S1.2 is selected and carries out maintenance operation performance testing,
Record obtains maintenance activity time statistic T and the corresponding maintainability quantitative attributes evaluation vector Z of maintenance activity object, obtains
M group maintenance operation performance testing data (Zi,Ti), i=1, the maintenance operation performance testing number under 2 ..., m and one group of normal condition
According to (Z0,T0)；
The distribution of maintenance activity times of the S3 based on the maintenance activity object selected in S2, solves its corresponding benchmark reparation respectively
Rate and actual repair rate, relation between the two is then established by the principle of ratio Maintenance Model, by maintainability quantitative attributes
Influence function coefficient estimation problem is converted into linear regression problem, and estimation obtains the influence function system of each maintainability quantitative attributes
Number；
S4 determines the benchmark of the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes in a kind of maintenance activity object that S1.2 is selected
Repair rate；Reality of the different maintenance manipulating objects under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes is put down in structure same class maintenance activity object
The solved function of equal maintenance activity time.
2. the maintenance activity Time Estimation Method according to claim 1 based on ratio Maintenance Model, it is characterised in that S3
In based in S2 select maintenance activity object the maintenance activity time distribution, solve respectively its corresponding benchmark repair rate and
Actual repair rate, its method are as follows：
For the maintenance activity time T of Normal DistributionD~N (θ, σ2), wherein θ is maintenance activity time average, and σ is maintenance
Activity duration standard deviation, maintenance probability density function are：
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Maintainability function is：
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Then repair rate function is in the case of normal distribution：
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According to the maintenance operation performance testing data obtained in S2, selected dimension in S2 is calculated by formula (1), (2) and (3) respectively
Repair the actual repair rate under the benchmark repair rate and different maintainability quantitative attributes states of manipulating object.
3. the maintenance activity Time Estimation Method according to claim 2 based on ratio Maintenance Model, it is characterised in that S3
In each maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient acquisition methods it is as follows：
Based on the principle of ratio Maintenance Model, the actual repair rate function mu (t, Z) of selected maintenance activity object can be described as in S2
The product of benchmark repair rate function and properties affect function, i.e.,
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Wherein, t is the time, is the common variable in repair rate function, μ0(t) it is the benchmark repair rate function of maintenance activity object,
Mainly determined by the inherent structure attribute of maintenance activity object in itself, i.e., the benchmark maintainability of maintenance activity object is dismounted by maintenance
Property determine；ψ (Z β) is the influence function of the attached attribute of maintenance activity process；Z is that maintainability corresponding to maintenance activity object is qualitative
The evaluation vector of attribute；z0i(i=1,2 ..., n) and zi(i=1,2 ..., n) represents a reference value of maintainability quantitative attributes respectively
And actual value；β is maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector；βi(i=1,2 ..., n) it is qualitative to correspond to maintainability
Influence coefficient of the attribute to maintainability quantitative target；N be consider maintainability quantitative attributes number, n 4；
Comparative example Maintenance Model formula is after formula (4) both sides are taken the logarithm, for β estimation problem, you can be converted to a n member
Linear regression problem, according to maintenance operation test data regression estimates maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector β, i.e.,
Obtain influence factor beta of the maintainability quantitative attributes to maintainability quantitative targeti(i=1,2 ..., n)；
Maintainability quantitative attributes influence function coefficient column vector β is the shadow by the attached attribute of operation to maintenance activity object maintainability
Ring what mechanism determined；For with different assembly connection sizes, still assembly connection mode identical difference repairs manipulating object,
The attached attribute of operation is consistent to the Influencing Mechanism of its maintainability, ratio Maintenance Model be in formula (4) maintainability quantitative attributes to dimension
The influence coefficient of repairing property quantitative target is identical.
4. the maintenance activity Time Estimation Method according to claim 3 based on ratio Maintenance Model, it is characterised in that S4
The benchmark reparation of the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes in a kind of maintenance activity object that middle determination S1.2 is selected
The method of rate is as follows：The maintenance activity object point of different assembly connection sizes in a kind of maintenance activity object selected to S1.2
Carry out maintenance operation performance testing not under its normal condition, assembly connection size and its benchmark are established using regression analysis
Relation between repair rate, so as to estimate to obtain the benchmark repair rate corresponding to the maintenance activity object of different assembly connection sizes
Function mu0(t)。
5. the maintenance activity Time Estimation Method according to claim 5 based on ratio Maintenance Model, it is characterised in that S4
Actual average dimension of the different maintenance manipulating objects under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes in middle structure same class maintenance activity object
The method for repairing the solved function of activity duration is as follows：
It is the computational methods of actual repair rate in formula (4) with reference to ratio Maintenance Model in S3 according to the definition of repair rate, it is different
The actual maintainability function of the maintenance activity object of assembly connection size is：
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</mrow>
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Wherein M0(t) it is the benchmark maintainability function of maintenance activity object, it is expressed as：
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</mrow>
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On the basis of function of maintainability basic definition, actual average of the maintenance activity object under the influence of maintainability quantitative attributes
Maintenance activity time solved function is：
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<mi>t</mi>
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<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>7</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
Wherein m (t) is maintenance time density function.
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| CN109101768A (en) * | 2018-09-20 | 2018-12-28 | 中国人民解放军国防科技大学 | Leaf end timing sensor layout optimization design method based on compressed sensing |
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