CN107491643A

CN107491643A - A kind of method, apparatus and system for determining synthesis design flow

Info

Publication number: CN107491643A
Application number: CN201710709787.2A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 鲁帆; 宋昕熠; 肖伟华; 王浩; 殷峻暹; 张双虎
Original assignee: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Current assignee: China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research
Priority date: 2017-08-18
Filing date: 2017-08-18
Publication date: 2017-12-19

Abstract

The present invention provides a kind of method, apparatus and system for determining synthesis design flow, is related to reservior safety and flood protec- tion design field.This method includes：Obtain the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site；The second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process of target interval is obtained, target interval is upper pond between the design section of downstream；According to the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, target Copula functions are determined in multiple default connection Copula functions；According to the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and target Copula functions, multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of acquisition reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section；According to multigroup stochastic simulation value, the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section is determined.The solution of the present invention, solving existing way, to inquire into flood design load error larger, the problem of having influence on downstream norm for civil defense.

Description

A kind of method, apparatus and system for determining synthesis design flow

Technical field

The present invention relates to reservior safety and flood protec- tion design field, more particularly to a kind of method for determining synthesis design flow, dress Put and system.

Background technology

Upper pond adjusts flood to change the flood peak value and process of downstream river course, directly affects downstream Section Design flood Size.Because the flood of downstream design section is collectively constituted by flood discharge water and district flood under upper pond, thus inquire into by It is typically the design flood according to each subregion difference Flood Region composition drafted when upper pond adjusts the design flood that flood influences Graph, it is superimposed after upper pond adjusts flood with district flood, obtains the designed flood hydrograph of design section various combination.

The method often used in engineering is same frequency flood composition method and typical flood composition method.Same frequency flood forms method Principle be to specify a certain subregion that the flood with design section same frequency occurs, corresponding flood occurs for remaining subregion.It assume that District flood and design section flood same frequency, upper pond is corresponding flood；It can also be assumed that upper pond flood and design Section flood same frequency, section are corresponding flood.Than selecting two kinds it is assumed that therefrom choosing the combination achievement less favorable to engineering.Allusion quotation The principle of type flood composition method is that representational great flood is selected from field data as typical case, by design section flood peak or The multiple proportions of magnanimity, amplify each area's model flood hydrograph.

However, the problem of both approaches are present be flood magnitude and area composition there is larger uncertainty, only with The flood design load that the flood field data or same frequency of limited play are assumed to inquire into may be bigger than normal or less than normal, and downstream is set up defences Standard causes to significantly affect.

The content of the invention

It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of method, apparatus and system for determining synthesis design flow, to improve to design The accuracy that crest discharge obtains.

To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention provide a kind of method for determining synthesis design flow, including：

Obtain the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site；

The second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process of target interval is obtained, the target interval is upper water Storehouse is between the design section of downstream；

According to the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, multiple pre- If determine target Copula functions in connection Copula functions；

According to the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and the target Copula functions, obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section；

According to multigroup stochastic simulation value, the synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section is determined.

Wherein, the step of the first flood discharge sequence for obtaining the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site Suddenly, including：

According to the storage outflow process and storage capacity change procedure of upper pond, first day at upper pond dam site is determined Right peb process, annual yearly maximum wind velocity flow value is picked out, obtain the first flood discharge sequence.

Wherein, the step of the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process for obtaining target interval, including：

According to the storage outflow process of upper pond, the 3rd flood of the 3rd peb process at the design section of downstream is determined Flow；

Calculate the 4th flood discharge of the observed flood process at the downstream design section and the 3rd flood discharge Difference, pick out annual maximum difference, the sequence of the maximum difference be defined as to the second Natural Floods of target interval Second flood discharge sequence of process.

Wherein, the marginal distribution function according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, The step of target Copula functions being determined in multiple default connection Copula functions, including：

Determine the marginal distribution function F (x) of the first flood discharge sequence and the side of the second flood discharge sequence Edge distribution function G (y), wherein x, y are respectively the first flood discharge sequence, the value of the second flood discharge sequence；

According to parameter Estimation formulaObtain the correspondence of multiple default Copula functions Parameter valueWherein, α be Copula functions in unknown parameter, c (u_i,v_i；It is α) Copula density functions, u_iFor first Marginal distribution function value, v corresponding to i-th of sample point in flood discharge sequence_iFor i-th of sample in the second flood discharge sequence Marginal distribution function value corresponding to point, i=1,2 ..., the length that n, n are default hydrology sample sequence；

According to the parameter value of acquisition, the multiple default respective squared euclidean distance of Copula functions is obtained；

It is target Copula functions to choose and Copula functions are preset corresponding to least square Euclidean distance.

Wherein, the marginal distribution function F (x) for determining the first flood discharge sequence and second flood discharge The step of marginal distribution function G (y) of sequence, includes：

Based on the type frequency curve model of Pearson came III, the marginal distribution function F (x) of the first flood discharge sequence is obtained With the marginal distribution function G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence, and marginal distribution function value corresponding to each sample point is calculated.

Wherein, the parameter value according to acquisition, the multiple default respective squared Euclidean of Copula functions is obtained Apart from the step of, including：

According to squared euclidean distance formulaObtain corresponding the multiple default Copula The squared euclidean distance L of function；Wherein,

C(u_i,v_i) it is by (u_i,v_i) functional value that default Copula functions C (u, v) obtains is updated to,To incite somebody to action (u_i,v_i) it is updated to experience Copula functionsObtained functional value,U, v are Two variables in Copula function C (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1], work as u_iDuring≤u,OtherwiseWork as v_i During≤v,Otherwise

Wherein, the marginal distribution function according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence With the target Copula functions, multigroup stochastic simulation of the natural crest discharge of acquisition reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section The step of value, including：

According to the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and the target Copula functions, when the Natural Floods obtained at upper pond dam site are preset flow, the condition of second flood discharge Copula distribution functionsWherein,C_Target(u, v) represents target Copula functions, u, v It is target Copula functions C_TargetTwo variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1]；

According to the inverse function of the condition C opula distribution functions of second flood discharge, the side of second flood discharge The inverse function of the inverse function of edge distribution function and the marginal distribution function of first flood discharge, it is natural to obtain reservoir dam site Multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of crest discharge and section.

Wherein, it is described according to multigroup stochastic simulation value, determine the synthesis design flow of the downstream design section The step of value, including：

Obtain the natural crest discharge analogue value of reservoir dam site in multigroup stochastic simulation value described in every group；

According to the natural crest discharge analogue value of the reservoir dam site, it is determined that after reservoir regulation for flood control and flood routing for river channel 5th flood discharge of downstream design section；

The natural crest discharge analogue value in corresponding section in 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value is superimposed, Obtain multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section；

According to multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section, the downstream is calculated according to hydrological frequency The synthesis design flow value of design section.

To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of device for determining synthesis design flow, including：

First acquisition module, for obtaining the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site Row；

Second acquisition module, the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process for obtaining target interval, institute State target interval for upper pond between the design section of downstream；

First determining module, for the edge according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Distribution function, target Copula functions are determined in multiple default connection Copula functions；

Processing module, for according to the first flood discharge sequence, the edge distribution of the second flood discharge sequence Function and the target Copula functions, obtain the multigroup random of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section The analogue value；

Second determining module, for according to multigroup stochastic simulation value, determining the design of the downstream design section Crest discharge value.

Wherein, first acquisition module is further used for：

Wherein, second acquisition module includes：

First determination sub-module, for the storage outflow process according to upper pond, determine at the design section of downstream 3rd flood discharge of three peb processes；

First processing submodule, for calculating the 4th flood discharge of the observed flood process at the downstream design section With the difference of the 3rd flood discharge, annual maximum difference is picked out, the sequence of the maximum difference is defined as target Second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process in section.

Wherein, first determining module includes：

Second determination sub-module, for determining the marginal distribution function F (x) and described the of the first flood discharge sequence The marginal distribution function G (y) of two flood discharge sequences, wherein x, y are respectively the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence The value of row；

Second processing submodule, for according to parameter Estimation formulaObtain multiple The corresponding parameter value of default Copula functionsWherein, α be Copula functions in unknown parameter, c (u_i,v_i；α) it is Copula density functions, u_iFor marginal distribution function value, v corresponding to i-th of sample point in the first flood discharge sequence_iFor second Marginal distribution function value corresponding to i-th of sample point in flood discharge sequence, i=1,2 ..., n, n be default hydrology sample sequence Length；

3rd processing submodule, for the parameter value according to acquisition, obtains the multiple default Copula functions each Squared euclidean distance；

Submodule is chosen, is target Copula letters for choosing default Copula functions corresponding to least square Euclidean distance Number.

Wherein, second determination sub-module is further used for：

Wherein, the 3rd processing submodule is further used for：

Wherein, the processing module includes：

Fourth process submodule, for the side according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Edge distribution function and the target Copula functions, it is described when the Natural Floods obtained at upper pond dam site are preset flow The condition C opula distribution functions of second flood dischargeWherein,C_Target(u, v) is represented Target Copula functions, u, v are target Copula functions C_TargetTwo variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1]；

5th processing submodule, for the inverse function of the condition C opula distribution functions according to second flood discharge, The inverse function of the marginal distribution function of second flood discharge and the marginal distribution function of first flood discharge it is anti- Function, obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section.

Wherein, second determining module includes：

Acquisition submodule, for obtaining the natural crest discharge simulation of the reservoir dam site in multigroup stochastic simulation value described in every group Value；

3rd determination sub-module, for according to the natural crest discharge analogue value of the reservoir dam site, it is determined that through flood control by reservoir regulation 5th flood discharge of downstream design section after scheduling and flood routing for river channel；

6th processing submodule, for corresponding section in the 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value is natural The crest discharge analogue value is superimposed, and obtains multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section；

7th processing submodule, for multiple crest discharge analogues value according to the downstream design section, according to the hydrology The synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section is calculated in frequency.

To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, including The device as described above for determining synthesis design flow.

To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, including Processor, memory and it is stored in the computer program that can be run on the memory and on the processor, the calculating Machine program is realized the step of method of determination synthesis design flow as described above during the computing device.

To reach above-mentioned purpose, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of computer-readable recording medium, the calculating Computer program is stored with machine readable storage medium storing program for executing, is realized as described above really when the computer program is executed by processor The step of determining the method for synthesis design flow.

The above-mentioned technical proposal of the present invention has the beneficial effect that：

The method of the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, to determine the synthesis design flow of downstream design section Value, by the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at the upper pond dam site for obtaining the downstream design section, And upper pond is to the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process between the downstream design section, then, base In the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, determined in multiple default Copula functions Go out target Copula functions, so as to, with reference to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence marginal distribution function and should Target Copula functions, multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section is obtained, it Afterwards, the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value.So, preferable mesh is passed through The downstream design section by upper pond regulation effect obtained by after mark Copula functions and big data sampled analog is different The synthesis design flow of frequency, by with higher accuracy, avoid the influence to downstream norm for civil defense.

Brief description of the drawings

Fig. 1 is one of step schematic diagram of method of determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 2 is the two of the step schematic diagram of the method for the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 3 is the three of the step schematic diagram of the method for the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 4 is the apparatus structure schematic diagram of the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention；

Fig. 5 is the system structure diagram of the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention.

Embodiment

To make the technical problem to be solved in the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and tool Body embodiment is described in detail.

There is relatively large deviation in the present invention, influence whether that downstream is set up defences for synthesis design flow determined by existing mode The problem of standard, there is provided a kind of method for determining synthesis design flow, determined more by preferable Copula functions Accurate synthesis design flow, improve the accuracy that synthesis design flow obtains.

As shown in figure 1, a kind of method of determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, including：

Step 101, the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site is obtained；

Step 102, the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process of target interval, the target interval are obtained It is upper pond between the design section of downstream；

Step 103, according to the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, Target Copula functions are determined in multiple default connection Copula functions；

Step 104, according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence marginal distribution function and The target Copula functions, obtain multigroup stochastic simulation of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section Value；

Step 105, according to multigroup stochastic simulation value, the synthesis design flow of the downstream design section is determined Value.

Pass through above-mentioned steps 101- steps 105, the method for the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, under determination The synthesis design flow value of design section is swum, by the first Natural Floods at the upper pond dam site for obtaining the downstream design section First flood discharge sequence of process, and upper pond is to of the second Natural Floods process between the downstream design section Two flood discharge sequences, then, the marginal distribution function based on the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, more Target Copula functions are determined in individual default Copula functions, so as to reference to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge The marginal distribution function of sequence and target Copula functions, obtain the natural flood peak stream of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section Multigroup stochastic simulation value of amount, afterwards, the synthesis design stream of downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value Value.So, regulated and stored by resulting after preferable target Copula functions and big data sampled analog by upper pond The synthesis design flow of the downstream design section different frequency of influence, by with higher accuracy, avoids and downstream is set up defences The influence of standard.

Wherein, step 101, including：

Here, to get the first more excellent flood discharge sequence, by using upper pond storage outflow process and The storage capacity change procedure of the upper pond, annual yearly maximum wind velocity flow value is picked out, to determine at the upper pond dam site The first Natural Floods process the first flood discharge sequence.

Specifically, water balance reducing process can be used,Wherein, △ t are a flood peak period, and V1 is the starting storage capacity of the flood peak period, and V2 is the cut-off storage capacity of the flood peak period, and Q1 is the flood peak The starting reservoir inflow of period, Q2 are the cut-off reservoir inflow of the flood peak period, and q1 is the starting storage outflow of the flood peak period, Q2 is the cut-off storage outflow of the flood peak period.Storage capacity change procedure (V2-V1) can look into Reservoir by reservoir level process before dam Hold curve to obtain, then in conjunction with the storage outflow process (q1+q2) of actual measurement, with regard to required crest discharge (Q1+Q2) can be obtained.It Afterwards, annual yearly maximum wind velocity flow value is picked out, obtains the first flood discharge sequence.

In addition, as shown in Fig. 2 above-mentioned steps 102 include：

Step 1021, according to the storage outflow process of upper pond, the 3rd peb process at the design section of downstream is determined The 3rd flood discharge；

Step 1022, the 4th flood discharge and the described 3rd of the observed flood process at the downstream design section is calculated The difference of flood discharge, annual maximum difference is picked out, the sequence of the maximum difference is defined as the second of target interval Second flood discharge sequence of Natural Floods process.

Here, it should be appreciated that, the storage outflow process based on upper pond, at the downstream design section determined The 3rd flood discharge of the 3rd peb process be calculation value, then, by calculating the observed flood at the downstream design section 4th flood discharge of process and the difference of the 3rd flood discharge, and pick out annual maximum difference, it becomes possible to by this The sequence of maximum difference is defined as the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process of target interval.Wherein, the 3rd flood Water-carrying capacity is specifically that the storage outflow process of the upper pond of actual measurement is arrived into the downstream design section by Muskingun method calculation Place obtains.

It should also be appreciated that the species of Copula functions is a lot, in embodiments of the present invention, it is contemplated that hydrological analysis meter The characteristics of calculation, it is preferred that by binary normal state Copula functions, binary t-Copula functions, binary Geng Bel Gumbel Copula The conventional Copula of function, binary Clayton Clayton Copula functions and the class of binary Frank Frank Copula functions 5 Function certainly, also may be used as multiple default Copula functions (alternative model that i.e. binary Copula joint distribution functions calculate) With the Copula functions from other classes.Wherein, binary normal state Copula functions and binary Frank Copula functions are suitable for With symmetrical afterbody, and the two-dimensional random of afterbody asymptotic independence is vectorial；Binary t-Copula functions are suitable for having symmetrical tail Portion, and the two-dimensional random vector that afterbody is related；Binary Gumbel Copula functions are suitable for Asymmetric Tail, and Upper tail is related, the two-dimensional random of lower tail asymptotic independence vector；Binary Clayton Copula functions are suitable for having asymmetric tail Portion, and the two-dimensional random vector of related, the upper tail asymptotic independence of lower tail.Table 1 lists this 5 class binary Copula dependency structure letter Several expression formulas.

Table 1

In table 1, u, v represent marginal distribution function, θ represent Copula functions relevant parameter, describe variable between Correlation, Φ^-1The inverse function of the distribution function of standardized normal distribution is represented,Represent the distribution for the univariate t-distribution that the free degree is k The inverse function of function, k are the free degree of t distributions.Wherein,For Bezier Debye functions.

Therefore, in this embodiment, step 103 includes：

Through above-mentioned steps, first have to determine the marginal distribution function F (x) and the second flood discharge of the first flood discharge sequence The marginal distribution function G (y) of sequence；Multiple default Copula functions are then based on, are utilized respectively marginal distribution function F (x), G (y) the two dimension joint for portraying dependency relation between reservoir dam site the first flood discharge sequence and the second flood discharge sequence, is established Distribution, so as to which parameter Estimation formula can be usedObtain multiple default Copula functions Corresponding parameter valueSuch as binary normal state Copula functions, its relevant parameter is θ, therefore, using parameter Estimation formulaIts relevant parameter θ parameter value can finally be tried to achieveIn next step, by obtaining The parameter value, carry out the calculating of multiple default respective squared euclidean distances of Copula functions.Afterwards, least square Europe is chosen It is target Copula functions to preset Copula functions corresponding to family name's distance.

Further specifically, in the above-mentioned steps of the embodiment of the present invention, the edge of the first flood discharge sequence is determined The step of distribution function F (x) and the marginal distribution function G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence, includes：

Here, the edge of the marginal distribution function F (x) for the first flood discharge sequence of acquisition and the second flood discharge sequence Distribution function G (y), it can be pressed by obtaining history hydrographic information and historical flood information in predetermined time period (such as 40 years) According to pearson type-Ⅲ distribution model, through estimating fitting line, its respective edge distribution is obtained, so as to further obtain edge distribution letter Number F (x) and G (y).

Certainly, in the history hydrographic information and historical flood information, year maximum independent sampling principle can be used, counts over the years Maximum flood peak, flood discharge value.

And multiple default respective squared euclidean distances of Copula functions are got, basis obtains in embodiments of the present invention Parameter value, the step of obtaining the multiple default Copula functions respective squared euclidean distance, including：

In the above, the first flood discharge sequence, each sample point pair of the second flood discharge sequence have been obtained The marginal distribution function value u answered_iAnd v_i, so, here, can be by u_iAnd v_iCopula function C (u, v) are updated to, instead of u, v, so Afterwards, byWith squared euclidean distance formula L=Calculate each pre- If the squared euclidean distance L of Copula functions.

It is determined that after target Copula functions, the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site will be obtained in next step and section is naturally big vast Multigroup stochastic simulation value of peak flow.Specifically, step 104 includes：

Here, by the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function F (x) and G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence and The target Copula functions of determination, when the Natural Floods that can be calculated at upper pond dam site are preset flow, the bar of the second flood discharge Part Copula distribution functions Afterwards, according to the inverse function of the condition C opula distribution functions of the second flood discharge, and the edge distribution of the second flood discharge The inverse function of function, obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value.Such as produce the equally distributed independent random number A1 of two obediences (0,1) and A2, pass through the inverse function v=C of condition C opula distribution functions_u ^-1(A2) v values corresponding to A2 are obtained, then pass through the second flood discharge Edge distribution inverse function y '=G^-1(v) y ' corresponding to v values is obtained, the probability no more than y ' values occurs for the second flood discharge For v values.Equally, inverse function x '=F of the edge distribution of the first flood discharge is passed through^-1(u) the flood stream corresponding to A1 values is obtained Value x ', the probability that the first flood discharge occurs to be no more than x ' values is A1 values.So as to obtain the first flood discharge and second One stochastic simulation sample value (x ', y ') of the two-dimentional overall edge distribution (X, Y) of flood discharge.Multiple random number is chosen in repetition Afterwards, so that it may obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section.

It is necessary to based on multigroup stochastic simulation value, determining the downstream design section after multigroup stochastic simulation value is obtained Synthesis design flow value.As shown in figure 3, above-mentioned steps 105 include：

Step 1051, the natural crest discharge analogue value of reservoir dam site in multigroup stochastic simulation value described in every group is obtained；

Step 1052, according to the natural crest discharge analogue value of the reservoir dam site, it is determined that through reservoir regulation for flood control and river course 5th flood discharge of downstream design section after flood routing；

Step 1053, by the corresponding natural crest discharge mould in section in the 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value Analog values are superimposed, and obtain multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section；

Step 1054, according to multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section, calculated according to hydrological frequency To the synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section.

Such as step 1051- steps 1054, the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site that will be obtained first in every group of stochastic simulation value The analogue value, with the 5th flood discharge of this determination downstream design section after reservoir regulation for flood control and flood routing for river channel, and then By the way that the natural crest discharge analogue value in corresponding section in the 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value is superimposed, obtain under this Multiple crest discharge analogues value of design section are swum, finally, setting for the downstream design section are calculated according still further to hydrological frequency Count crest discharge value.

Specifically, corresponding 5th flood discharge, is by the natural flood peak stream of reservoir dam site in one group of stochastic simulation value Measure the analogue value and adjust flood and the gained after Muskingun method carries out flood routing for river channel by reservoir regulation for flood control rule, afterwards, by the Five flood discharges and the natural crest discharge analogue value in section in this group of stochastic simulation value are superimposed, and it is disconnected will to obtain downstream design One crest discharge analogue value in face.Multigroup stochastic simulation value will form an analogue value series with greater depth, so, To multiple crest discharge analogues value of downstream design section, can obtain being regulated and stored shadow by upper pond after calculating according to hydrological frequency Ring the synthesis design flow value of the lower downstream design section different frequency, the synthesis design flow value is by with higher accurate Property, provide more preferably foundation for downstream norm for civil defense.

In summary, the method for the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, to determine setting for downstream design section Crest discharge value is counted, by the first flood of the first Natural Floods process at the upper pond dam site for obtaining the downstream design section Flow sequence, and upper pond is to the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process between the downstream design section Row, then, the marginal distribution function based on the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, in multiple default Copula Target Copula functions are determined in function, so as to reference to the edge point of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Cloth function and target Copula functions, obtain the multigroup random of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section The analogue value, afterwards, the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value.So, lead to The downstream by upper pond regulation effect obtained by crossing after preferable target Copula functions and big data sampled analog is set The synthesis design flow of section different frequency is counted, by with higher accuracy, avoids the influence to downstream norm for civil defense.

As shown in figure 4, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of device for determining synthesis design flow, including：

First acquisition module 401, for obtaining the first flood stream of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site Measure sequence；

Second acquisition module 402, the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process for obtaining target interval, The target interval is upper pond between the design section of downstream；

First determining module 403, for the side according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Edge distribution function, target Copula functions are determined in multiple default connection Copula functions；

Processing module 404, for according to the edge of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence point Cloth function and the target Copula functions, obtain the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section it is multigroup with The machine analogue value；

Second determining module 405, for according to multigroup stochastic simulation value, determining setting for the downstream design section Count crest discharge value.

Wherein, first acquisition module is further used for：

Wherein, second acquisition module includes：

Wherein, first determining module includes：

Wherein, second determination sub-module is further used for：

Wherein, the 3rd processing submodule is further used for：

Wherein, the processing module includes：

Wherein, second determining module includes：

The device of the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, to determine the synthesis design flow of downstream design section Value, by the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at the upper pond dam site for obtaining the downstream design section, And upper pond is to the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process between the downstream design section, then, base In the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, determined in multiple default Copula functions Go out target Copula functions, so as to, with reference to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence marginal distribution function and should Target Copula functions, multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section is obtained, it Afterwards, the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value.So, preferable mesh is passed through The downstream design section by upper pond regulation effect obtained by after mark Copula functions and big data sampled analog is different The synthesis design flow of frequency, by with higher accuracy, avoid the influence to downstream norm for civil defense.

It should be noted that the device is the device for the method for applying above-mentioned determination synthesis design flow, above-mentioned determination The implementation of the embodiment of the method for synthesis design flow is applied to the device, can also reach identical technique effect.

Embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, including determination as described above is set Count the device of crest discharge.

The system of the determination synthesis design flow of the embodiment of the present invention, pass through the dress of above-mentioned determination synthesis design flow Put, to determine the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section, by the upper pond dam site for obtaining the downstream design section First flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process, and upper pond are natural to second between the downstream design section Second flood discharge sequence of peb process, then, the edge based on the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence point Cloth function, target Copula functions are determined in multiple default Copula functions, so as to, with reference to the first flood discharge sequence, The marginal distribution function and target Copula functions of second flood discharge sequence, obtain the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and area Between natural crest discharge multigroup stochastic simulation value, afterwards, downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value Synthesis design flow value.So, by obtained by after preferable target Copula functions and big data sampled analog by The synthesis design flow of the downstream design section different frequency of upper pond regulation effect, by with higher accuracy, is avoided Influence to downstream norm for civil defense.

It should be noted that the system is the system for the device for including above-mentioned determination synthesis design flow, above-mentioned determination The implementation of the embodiment of the method for synthesis design flow is applied to the device, can also reach identical technique effect.

Embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of computer-readable recording medium, on the computer-readable recording medium Computer program is stored with, determination synthesis design flow as described above is realized when the computer program is executed by processor The step of method.

Computer-readable medium includes permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media can be by any method Or technology come realize information store.Information can be computer-readable instruction, data structure, the module of program or other data. The example of the storage medium of computer includes, but are not limited to phase transition internal memory (PRAM), static RAM (SRAM), moved State random access memory (DRAM), other kinds of random access memory (RAM), read-only storage (ROM), electric erasable Programmable read only memory (EEPROM), fast flash memory bank or other memory techniques, read-only optical disc read-only storage (CD-ROM), Digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storages, magnetic cassette tape, the storage of tape magnetic rigid disk or other magnetic storage apparatus Or any other non-transmission medium, the information that can be accessed by a computing device available for storage.Define, calculate according to herein Machine computer-readable recording medium does not include temporary computer readable media (transitory media), such as data-signal and carrier wave of modulation.

As shown in figure 5, embodiments of the invention additionally provide a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, including processor 501st, memory 502 and the computer program that can be run on the memory 502 and on the processor 501, institute are stored in The step of stating the method that determination synthesis design flow as described above is realized when computer program is performed by the processor 501.

Wherein, each component is coupled by bus system 503.It is understood that bus system 503 is used to realize these Connection communication between component.Bus system 503 is in addition to including data/address bus, in addition to power bus, controlling bus and shape State signal bus.But for the sake of clear explanation, various buses are all designated as bus system 503 in Figure 5.

In some embodiments, memory 502 stores following element, can perform module or data structure, or Their subset of person, or their superset：Operating system 5021 and application program 5022.

Wherein, operating system 5021, comprising various system programs, such as ccf layer, core library layer, driving layer etc., it is used for Realize various basic businesses and the hardware based task of processing.Application program 5022, comprising various application programs, for realizing Various applied business.Realize that the program of present invention method may be embodied in application program 5022.

In embodiments of the present invention, by calling program or the instruction of the storage of memory 502, specifically, can be application The program stored in program 5022 or instruction.

It can be seen that the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site of the system by obtaining the downstream design section First flood discharge sequence, and upper pond is to the second flood of the second Natural Floods process between the downstream design section Flow sequence, then, the marginal distribution function based on the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, multiple default Target Copula functions are determined in Copula functions, so as to reference to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Marginal distribution function and target Copula functions, obtain the more of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section Group stochastic simulation value, afterwards, the synthesis design flow value of downstream design section is finally determined by multigroup stochastic simulation value.This Sample, by obtained by after preferable target Copula functions and big data sampled analog under by upper pond regulation effect The synthesis design flow of design section different frequency is swum, by with higher accuracy, avoids the shadow to downstream norm for civil defense Ring.

Those of ordinary skill in the art are it is to be appreciated that the list of each example described with reference to the embodiments described herein Member and algorithm steps, it can be realized with the combination of electronic hardware or computer software and electronic hardware.These functions are actually Performed with hardware or software mode, application-specific and design constraint depending on technical scheme.Professional and technical personnel Described function can be realized using distinct methods to each specific application, but this realization is it is not considered that exceed The scope of the present invention.

It is apparent to those skilled in the art that for convenience and simplicity of description, the system of foregoing description, The specific work process of device and unit, the corresponding process in preceding method embodiment is may be referred to, will not be repeated here.

In embodiment provided herein, it should be understood that disclosed apparatus and method, others can be passed through Mode is realized.For example, device embodiment described above is only schematical, for example, the division of the unit, is only A kind of division of logic function, can there is an other dividing mode when actually realizing, for example, multiple units or component can combine or Person is desirably integrated into another system, or some features can be ignored, or does not perform.Another, shown or discussed is mutual Between coupling or direct-coupling or communication connection can be INDIRECT COUPLING or communication link by some interfaces, device or unit Connect, can be electrical, mechanical or other forms.

The unit illustrated as separating component can be or may not be physically separate, show as unit The part shown can be or may not be physical location, you can with positioned at a place, or can also be distributed to multiple On NE.Some or all of unit therein can be selected to realize the mesh of this embodiment scheme according to the actual needs 's.

In addition, each functional unit in each embodiment of the present invention can be integrated in a processing unit, can also That unit is individually physically present, can also two or more units it is integrated in a unit.

If the function is realized in the form of SFU software functional unit and is used as independent production marketing or in use, can be with It is stored in a computer read/write memory medium.Based on such understanding, technical scheme is substantially in other words The part to be contributed to prior art or the part of the technical scheme can be embodied in the form of software product, the meter Calculation machine software product is stored in a storage medium, including some instructions are causing a computer equipment (can be People's computer, server, or network equipment etc.) perform all or part of step of each embodiment methods described of the present invention. And foregoing storage medium includes：USB flash disk, mobile hard disk, ROM, RAM, magnetic disc or CD etc. are various can be with store program codes Medium.

The foregoing is only a specific embodiment of the invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, any Those familiar with the art the invention discloses technical scope in, change or replacement can be readily occurred in, should all be contained Cover within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be defined by scope of the claims.

Explanation is needed further exist for, this many functional part described in this description is all referred to as module, so as to more Add the independence for especially emphasizing its implementation.

In the embodiment of the present invention, module can be realized with software, so as to by various types of computing devices.Citing comes Say, the executable code module of a mark can include the one or more physics or logical block of computer instruction, citing For, it can be built as object, process or function.Nevertheless, the executable code of institute's mark module is without physically It is located together, but the different instructions being stored in different positions can be included, is combined together when in these command logics When, it forms module and realizes the regulation purpose of the module.

In fact, executable code module can be the either many bar instructions of individual instructions, and can even be distributed On multiple different code segments, it is distributed among distinct program, and is distributed across multiple memory devices.Similarly, grasp Making data can be identified in module, and can be realized according to any appropriate form and be organized in any appropriate class In the data structure of type.The operation data can be collected as individual data collection, or can be distributed on diverse location (being included in different storage device), and only can be present at least in part as electronic signal in system or network.

When module can be realized using software, it is contemplated that the level of existing hardware technique, it is possible to implemented in software Module, in the case where not considering cost, those skilled in the art can build corresponding to hardware circuit come realize correspondingly Function, the hardware circuit includes conventional ultra-large integrated (VLSI) circuit or gate array and such as logic core The existing semiconductor of piece, transistor etc either other discrete elements.Module can also use programmable hardware device, such as Field programmable gate array, programmable logic array, programmable logic device etc. are realized.

Above-mentioned exemplary embodiment describes with reference to those accompanying drawings, many different forms and embodiment be it is feasible and Without departing from spirit of the invention and teaching, therefore, the present invention should not be construed as the limitation of exemplary embodiment is proposed at this. More precisely, these exemplary embodiments are provided so that the present invention can be perfect and complete, and can be by the scope of the invention It is communicated to those those of skill in the art.In those schemas, size of components and relative size are perhaps based on for the sake of clear And it is exaggerated.Term used herein is based only on description particular example embodiment purpose, and being not intended to, which turns into limitation, uses.Such as Use ground at this, unless the interior text clearly refers else, otherwise the singulative " one ", "one" and "the" be intended to by Those multiple forms are also included.Those term "comprising"s and/or " comprising " will become further apparent when being used in this specification, The presence of the feature, integer, step, operation, component and/or component is represented, but is not excluded for one or more further features, whole Number, step, operation, component, component and/or the presence of its group or increase.Unless otherwise indicated, narrative tense, a value scope bag Bound containing the scope and any subrange therebetween.

Described above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for those skilled in the art For, on the premise of principle of the present invention is not departed from, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications It should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.

Claims

A kind of 1. method for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that including：

Obtain the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site；

The second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process of target interval is obtained, the target interval arrives for upper pond Between the design section of downstream；

According to the marginal distribution function of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, in multiple default companies Connect and target Copula functions are determined in Copula functions；

According to the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and the target Copula functions, obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section；

According to multigroup stochastic simulation value, the synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section is determined.
2. the method according to claim 1 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that the acquisition upper pond dam The step of first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at location, including：

According to the storage outflow process and storage capacity change procedure of upper pond, the first natural flood at upper pond dam site is determined Water process, annual yearly maximum wind velocity flow value is picked out, obtain the first flood discharge sequence.
3. the method according to claim 1 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that the acquisition target interval The step of second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process, including：

According to the storage outflow process of upper pond, the 3rd flood stream of the 3rd peb process at the design section of downstream is determined Amount；

Calculate the 4th flood discharge of the observed flood process at the downstream design section and the difference of the 3rd flood discharge Value, picks out annual maximum difference, the sequence of the maximum difference is defined as to the second Natural Floods process of target interval The second flood discharge sequence.
4. the method according to claim 1 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that described according to the described first flood The marginal distribution function of water-carrying capacity sequence, the second flood discharge sequence, determined in multiple default connection Copula functions The step of going out target Copula functions, including：

Determine the marginal distribution function F (x) of the first flood discharge sequence and the edge point of the second flood discharge sequence Cloth function G (y), wherein x, y are respectively the first flood discharge sequence, the value of the second flood discharge sequence；

According to parameter Estimation formulaObtain the corresponding parameter of multiple default Copula functions ValueWherein, α be Copula functions in unknown parameter, c (u_i,v_i；It is α) Copula density functions, u_iFor the first flood Marginal distribution function value, v corresponding to i-th of sample point in flow sequence_iFor i-th of sample point pair in the second flood discharge sequence The marginal distribution function value answered, i=1,2 ..., the length that n, n are default hydrology sample sequence；

According to the parameter value of acquisition, the multiple default respective squared euclidean distance of Copula functions is obtained；

It is target Copula functions to choose and Copula functions are preset corresponding to least square Euclidean distance.
5. the method according to claim 4 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that described to determine first flood The step of marginal distribution function F (x) of the water-carrying capacity sequence and marginal distribution function G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence, wraps Include：

Based on the type frequency curve model of Pearson came III, marginal distribution function F (x) and the institute of the first flood discharge sequence are obtained The marginal distribution function G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence is stated, and calculates marginal distribution function value corresponding to each sample point.
6. the method according to claim 4 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that the parameter according to acquisition Value, the step of obtaining the multiple default Copula functions respective squared euclidean distance, including：

According to squared euclidean distance formulaObtain corresponding the multiple default Copula functions Squared euclidean distance L；Wherein,

C(u_i,v_i) it is by (u_i,v_i) functional value that default Copula functions C (u, v) obtains is updated to,For by (u_i,v_i) It is updated to experience Copula functionsObtained functional value,U, v are Copula functions C Two variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1], work as u_iDuring≤u,OtherwiseWork as v_iDuring≤v,Otherwise
7. the method according to claim 1 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that described according to the described first flood Water-carrying capacity sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and the target Copula functions, obtain reservoir dam The step of multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge in location and section, including：

According to the first flood discharge sequence, the marginal distribution function of the second flood discharge sequence and the target Copula functions, when the Natural Floods obtained at upper pond dam site are preset flow, the condition of second flood discharge Copula distribution functionsWherein,C_Target(u, v) represents target Copula functions, u, v It is target Copula functions C_TargetTwo variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1]；

According to the inverse function of the condition C opula distribution functions of second flood discharge, the edge point of second flood discharge The inverse function of the inverse function of cloth function and the marginal distribution function of first flood discharge, obtain the natural flood peak of reservoir dam site Multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of flow and section.
8. it is according to claim 1 determine synthesis design flow method, it is characterised in that it is described according to it is described it is multigroup with The machine analogue value, the step of determining the synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section, including：

Obtain the natural crest discharge analogue value of reservoir dam site in multigroup stochastic simulation value described in every group；

According to the natural crest discharge analogue value of the reservoir dam site, it is determined that the downstream after reservoir regulation for flood control and flood routing for river channel 5th flood discharge of design section；

By the natural crest discharge analogue value superposition in corresponding section in the 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value, obtain Multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section；

According to multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section, the downstream is calculated according to hydrological frequency and designs The synthesis design flow value of section.
A kind of 9. device for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that including：

First acquisition module, for obtaining the first flood discharge sequence of the first Natural Floods process at upper pond dam site；

Second acquisition module, the second flood discharge sequence of the second Natural Floods process for obtaining target interval, the mesh Mark section is upper pond between the design section of downstream；

First determining module, for according to the first flood discharge sequence, the edge distribution of the second flood discharge sequence Function, target Copula functions are determined in multiple default connection Copula functions；

Processing module, for the marginal distribution function according to the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence With the target Copula functions, multigroup stochastic simulation of the natural crest discharge of acquisition reservoir dam site and the natural crest discharge in section Value；

Second determining module, for according to multigroup stochastic simulation value, determining the synthesis design of the downstream design section Flow value.
10. the device according to claim 9 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that first acquisition module It is further used for：

According to the storage outflow process and storage capacity change procedure of upper pond, the first natural flood at upper pond dam site is determined Water process, annual yearly maximum wind velocity flow value is picked out, obtain the first flood discharge sequence.
11. the device according to claim 9 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that second acquisition module Including：

First determination sub-module, for the storage outflow process according to upper pond, determine the 3rd flood at the design section of downstream 3rd flood discharge of water process；

First processing submodule, for calculating the 4th flood discharge and the institute of the observed flood process at the downstream design section The difference of the 3rd flood discharge is stated, picks out annual maximum difference, the sequence of the maximum difference is defined as target interval The second Natural Floods process the second flood discharge sequence.
12. the device according to claim 9 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that first determining module Including：

Second determination sub-module, for determining the floods of marginal distribution function F (x) and described second of the first flood discharge sequence The marginal distribution function G (y) of water-carrying capacity sequence, wherein x, y are respectively the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence Value；

Second processing submodule, for according to parameter Estimation formulaObtain multiple default The corresponding parameter value of Copula functionsWherein, α be Copula functions in unknown parameter, c (u_i,v_i；It is α) close for Copula Spend function, u_iFor marginal distribution function value, v corresponding to i-th of sample point in the first flood discharge sequence_iFor the second flood discharge Marginal distribution function value corresponding to i-th of sample point in sequence, i=1,2 ..., the length that n, n are default hydrology sample sequence；

3rd processing submodule, for the parameter value according to acquisition, it is respective flat to obtain the multiple default Copula functions Square Euclidean distance；

Submodule is chosen, is target Copula functions for choosing default Copula functions corresponding to least square Euclidean distance.
13. the device according to claim 12 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that described second determines submodule Block is further used for：

Based on the type frequency curve model of Pearson came III, marginal distribution function F (x) and the institute of the first flood discharge sequence are obtained The marginal distribution function G (y) of the second flood discharge sequence is stated, and calculates marginal distribution function value corresponding to each sample point.
14. the device according to claim 12 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that the 3rd processing submodule Block is further used for：

According to squared euclidean distance formulaObtain corresponding the multiple default Copula functions Squared euclidean distance L；Wherein,

C(u_i,v_i) it is by (u_i,v_i) functional value that default Copula functions C (u, v) obtains is updated to,For by (u_i,v_i) It is updated to experience Copula functionsObtained functional value,U, v are Copula functions C Two variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1], work as u_iDuring≤u,OtherwiseWork as v_iDuring≤v,Otherwise
15. the device according to claim 9 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that the processing module includes：

Fourth process submodule, for according to the edge of the first flood discharge sequence, the second flood discharge sequence point Cloth function and the target Copula functions, when the Natural Floods obtained at upper pond dam site are preset flow, described second The condition C opula distribution functions of flood dischargeWherein,C_Target(u, v) represents target Copula functions, u, v are target Copula functions C_TargetTwo variables in (u, v), and u, v ∈ [0,1]；

5th processing submodule, it is described for the inverse function of the condition C opula distribution functions according to second flood discharge The inverse function of the inverse function of the marginal distribution function of second flood discharge and the marginal distribution function of first flood discharge, Obtain multigroup stochastic simulation value of the natural crest discharge of the natural crest discharge of reservoir dam site and section.
16. the device according to claim 9 for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that second determining module Including：

Acquisition submodule, for obtaining the natural crest discharge analogue value of reservoir dam site in multigroup stochastic simulation value described in every group；

3rd determination sub-module, for according to the natural crest discharge analogue value of the reservoir dam site, it is determined that through reservoir regulation for flood control With the 5th flood discharge of downstream design section after flood routing for river channel；

6th processing submodule, for by the corresponding natural flood peak in section in the 5th flood discharge and multigroup stochastic simulation value Flow simulation value is superimposed, and obtains multiple crest discharge analogues value of the downstream design section；

7th processing submodule, for multiple crest discharge analogues value according to the downstream design section, according to hydrological frequency The synthesis design flow value of the downstream design section is calculated.
17. a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that including as described in any one of claim 9 to 16 Determine the device of synthesis design flow.
18. a kind of system for determining synthesis design flow, it is characterised in that including processor, memory and be stored in described deposit On reservoir and the computer program that can run on the processor, realized when the computer program is by the computing device The step of method of determination synthesis design flow as any one of claim 1 to 8.
19. a kind of computer-readable recording medium, it is characterised in that be stored with computer on the computer-readable recording medium Program, the determination synthesis design as any one of claim 1 to 8 is realized when the computer program is executed by processor The step of method of flow.