The content of the invention
It is contemplated that at least solve one of problems of the prior art.
One of the technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to establish a kind of new emission reduction appraisal procedure, and methods described can be right
The main Mitigation options of electric power carry out com-parison and analysis, and the main input and output Xiang Jun of emission reduction is included in and considered, while takes into account benefit
With efficiency.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention provides a kind of power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method and commented
Estimate system.
Related description is carried out to the power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method with reference to Fig. 1, Fig. 2:
As shown in figure 1, methods described establishes power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation model, including emission reduction benefit
Assessment models and DEA efficiency comparison models, obtain by the emission reduction benefit caused by Mitigation options and the relative efficiency between measure.
The power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method specifically includes following steps:
1) the emission reduction performance evaluation model establishes emission reduction benefit quantization mould for power industry Mitigation options to be assessed
Type, the related parameter of emission reduction is chosen as input for different measures to be evaluated, the dimension according to evaluation chooses different benefits
Index obtains assessing the emission reduction benefit of Mitigation options as exporting.
2) the DEA efficiency comparisons model is based on DEA Method, be respectively adopted input in each Mitigation options with
And output forms numerous decision packages as input and output, the relative efficiency of each Mitigation options is calculated using CCR plan models,
And then draw to assess the emission reduction efficiency of each Mitigation options.
Wherein, the equation of CCR plan models is:
In formula, θ is evaluation unit DMU virtual value;ε is non-Archimedes's dimensionless;s‐For surplus variable;s+For pine
Relaxation variable;λjFor weight coefficient;xj0、yj0Respectively evaluated DMU input and output index.
Further, the emission reduction performance evaluation model is to choose the main Mitigation options of future electrical energy industry to be built
Mould, the main Mitigation options are specifically including but not limited to thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction, development clean energy resource, promote electric energy replacement.
Further, the emission reduction performance evaluation model is to choose the important dimension of power industry Mitigation options and be used as to refer to
Mark, it is specifically including but not limited to economize on coal, emission reduction.
Further, the emission reduction performance evaluation model proposes according to the performance indicator chosen for different measure
Emission reduction benefit quantitative formula, it is specific as follows:
A, the quantitative formula of economizing on coal of thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction measure is:
In formula, Δ FiFor 1 year Mitigation options coal conservation, Fi0For 1 year measured with the unit gross coal consumption rate of standard year
Gross coal consumption rate amount, FiFor 1 year actual power coal consumption amount, GiFor unit installed capacity in 1 year, hiHour is utilized for 1 year unit
Number, α0On the basis of year unit gross coal consumption rate, αiFor 1 year unit gross coal consumption rate.
B, the emission reduction quantitative formula of thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction measure is:
In formula, Δ EiFor 1 year pollution reduction amount, Ei0For in terms of the unit gross coal consumption rate and efficiency of dust collection of standard year
1 year pollutant discharge amount of amount, EiFor 1 year pollutant actual emission, AarIt is the coal-fired As-received ash content that is averaged, ω is combustion
Ash content of coal is to the transformation ratio of pollutant, η0On the basis of year efficiency of dust collection, ηiFor the efficiency of dust collection of 1 year.
C, the quantitative formula of economizing on coal of development clean energy resource is:
In formula, Gj,iRepresent the installed capacity of 1 year jth kind clean energy resource, hj,iRepresent 1 year jth kind clean energy resource machine
The annual utilization hours of group.
D, the emission reduction quantitative formula of development clean energy resource is:
In formula, e is pollutant discharge coefficient.
E, promoting the quantitative formula of economizing on coal that electric energy substitutes is:
In formula, Ck,iTo substitute the coal amount of 1 year kth kind coal combustion technology, common m kinds;Pt,iThe combustion of t kinds was substituted for 1 year
The amount of fuel of oil tech, common n kinds;βtFor t kind oil converting standard coal measures numbers;RiTotal amount is substituted for 1 year electric energy;piFor 1 year
Coal electricity generated energy accounting.
F, promoting the emission reduction quantitative formula that electric energy substitutes is:
In formula, fkFor the pollutant discharge coefficient in the kth kind coal combustion technology that is substituted, ftFor the t kind fuel oils substituted
Pollutant discharge coefficient in technology.
Further, the input parameter of the DEA efficiency comparisons model uses the input in each Mitigation options, described
Input can voluntarily increase and decrease according to actual conditions, be specifically including but not limited to manpower, capital and technology.
Further, the parameter of output end of the DEA efficiency comparisons model uses the output in each Mitigation options, specifically
The emission reduction performance indicator that emission reduction performance evaluation model can be used to draw.
As shown in Fig. 2 further, the DEA efficiency comparisons model is calculated to the difference of each Mitigation options of gained
Period relative efficiency is drawn, can easily and intuitively more each measure emission reduction efficiency.
As shown in figure 3, the present invention also provides a kind of power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation system, the system bag
Include data collecting system, intellectual analysis assessment system, data base handling system, terminal storage display system, the data acquisition
System is connected by usb card with the input of intellectual analysis assessment system, and the intellectual analysis assessment system passes through data
Bus is connected with data base handling system, and the output end of intellectual analysis assessment system passes through parallel port and terminal storage display system phase
Even, and data base handling system is connected by data/address bus with terminal storage display system.
Further, the intellectual analysis assessment system is by data characteristics extraction module, Mitigation options environmental performance intelligence
Energy screening module, emission reduction benefit calculation module, DEA efficiency calculations module are electrically connected by controlling bus and formed, wherein, data are special
Sign extraction module, emission reduction intelligent screening module are connected by data/address bus with data base handling system;The system has analysis institute
The assessment data of acquisition, the work of power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation is completed, is extracted according to data characteristics, appraisal procedure
Intelligent screening, emission reduction benefit calculation, the order of DEA efficiency calculations, calculate power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation result.
Further, the data base handling system is by feature database is assessed in data preprocessing method storehouse, emission reduction, emission reduction is arranged
Apply environmental performance evaluation method base and assess data and formed with assessment result storehouse, wherein, data preprocessing method storehouse passes through data
Bus is connected with data characteristics extraction module, and feature database is assessed in emission reduction and Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method base passes through respectively
Data/address bus is connected with Mitigation options environmental performance intelligent screening module, assess data and assessment result storehouse by data/address bus with
Terminal storage display system is connected;The system provider method is supported, there is provided data, the storage and management of result.
Further, Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method base includes emission reduction performance evaluation method and DEA efficiency
Appraisal procedure.
Had the beneficial effect that using what power industry Mitigation options environmental performance evaluation method provided by the invention was brought:
(1) emission reduction benefit and relative efficiency are quantified, operability is good;
(2) can be used for assessing all common contaminants of power industry, it is applied widely;
(3) without carrying out nondimensionalization processing to index, algorithm is simplified, avoids subjective factor, reduces error;
(4) many index of multinomial measure can be assessed simultaneously, is more suitable for the power industry decision-making of multiple target;
(5) input and output item can voluntarily be increased and decreased according to demand, ductility and flexibility are good;
(6) the following most important Mitigation options of power industry are enumerated, the most frequently used input and output is assessed in meter and emission reduction,
Emission reduction benefit and efficiency, assessment models more system and science are taken into account simultaneously.
Embodiment
The embodiment and effect of the inventive method are described in detail below in conjunction with specific embodiment.It should be noted that
It is that the combination of the technical characteristic or technical characteristic described in following embodiments is not construed as isolated, and they can be with
It is mutually combined so as to reach superior technique effect.
The present embodiment uses the DEA models of input orientation type, evaluates and predicts and compares China's development of 2007~the year two thousand thirty clearly
The clean energy, implement the emission reduction efficiency that electric energy substitutes, promotes the measures such as thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction, wherein clean energy resource measure will be developed again
Water power, nuclear power, wind-powered electricity generation, solar energy is subdivided into be studied.
The present embodiment uses the capital cost of 2007~the year two thousand thirty above-mentioned three measures, and chooses relevant parameter calculating three and subtract
The PM2.5 emission reduction benefits of row's measure.The relative efficiency of three measures is calculated with CCR plan models, and is drawn.
Specific calculation is as follows:
Because data are more, the data in part index number part time are only enumerated.
The three measures part time partial data of table 1
|
2015 |
The year two thousand twenty |
2025 |
The year two thousand thirty |
Generating standard coal consumption (gram/kilowatt hour) |
297.0 |
293.5 |
290.9 |
289.0 |
Thermoelectricity generated energy (hundred million kilowatt hours) |
42307 |
51580 |
51000 |
51000 |
It is newly-increased to substitute electricity |
1117 |
1300 |
2100 |
2400 |
Wind power generation capacity (hundred million kilowatt hours) |
1851 |
4389 |
4764 |
5172 |
1st, clean energy resource
Development clean energy resource emission reduction quantitative formula be:
Development clean energy resource quantitative formula of economizing on coal be:
2nd, electric energy substitutes
Promoting the emission reduction quantitative formula that electric energy substitutes is:
Promoting the quantitative formula of economizing on coal that electric energy substitutes is:
3rd, thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction
The emission reduction quantitative formula of thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction measure is:
The quantitative formula of economizing on coal of thermoelectricity energy-saving and emission-reduction measure is:
Data in table 1 are substituted into above-mentioned formula can obtain the coal conservation and CER of measures, plus general expenses
Capital cost, it is listed as follows:
The three measures energy-saving and emission-reduction of table 2 and capital cost
4th, the equation of CCR plan models is:
It is as shown in table 3 that the data of table 2 substitution CCR plan model equations are obtained into efficiency value:
The three measures efficiency value of table 3
Measure |
2015 |
The year two thousand twenty |
2025 |
The year two thousand thirty |
Clean energy resource |
0.295 |
0.403 |
0.573 |
0.906 |
Electric energy substitutes |
0.574 |
0.545 |
0.557 |
0.554 |
Energy-saving and emission-reduction |
0.374 |
0.010 |
0.008 |
0.007 |
Emission reduction relative efficiency based on 2007~2016 annual datas as shown in Fig. 2 analyzed, at the beginning of Thermal Power Generation Industry energy-saving and emission-reduction measure
Phase efficiency highest, then gradually into downward trend;With the continuous decline of the development costs such as scene, the emission reduction performance of clean energy resource
Also constantly rise, but due to 2014~2016 years it is serious abandon wind, abandon light etc., the emission reduction performance of clean energy resource has declined;This
Outside, because the cost of investment of electric energy replacement is larger so that it is relatively low that electric energy substitutes emission reduction performance.
Although having been presented for some embodiments of the present invention herein, it will be appreciated by those of skill in the art that
Without departing from the spirit of the invention, the embodiments herein can be changed.Above-described embodiment be it is exemplary, no
Restriction that should be using the embodiments herein as interest field of the present invention.