CN107359648B - Distributed power supply confidence capacity detection method, device, medium and computer equipment - Google Patents
Distributed power supply confidence capacity detection method, device, medium and computer equipment Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
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- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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Abstract
The invention relates to a distributed power supply confidence capacity detection method, a device, a medium and computer equipment, wherein the distributed power supply confidence capacity detection method comprises the following steps: obtaining an equivalent load continuous curve of a power distribution network to be planned, which is not accessed to a distributed power supply, to obtain a first curve; acquiring a working parameter value of the distributed power supply, and acquiring output power of the distributed power supply and output probability corresponding to the output power according to the working parameter value and preset maximum output power of the distributed power supply; obtaining an equivalent load continuous curve of the power distribution network to be planned to be accessed to the distributed power supply according to the first curve, the preset maximum output power of the distributed power supply, the output power of the distributed power supply and the corresponding output probability to obtain a second curve; and obtaining the confidence capacity of the distributed power supply according to the preset maximum load loss probability, the first curve and the second curve of the power distribution network to be planned. Therefore, the randomness and the intermittence of the output of the distributed power supply are taken into consideration, and the confidence capacity accuracy of the distributed power supply obtained through detection is high.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to distribution network planning technical fields, more particularly to a kind of distributed generation resource confidence capacity check side
Method, device, medium and computer equipment.
Background technique
Distributed generation resource is a kind of not direct 35kV (kilovolt) being connected with concentration transmission system and following voltage class
Power supply can be divided into the types such as wind power generation plant, photovoltaic power generation apparatus.With the extensive use of distributed generation resource and micro-capacitance sensor,
The gradually rise of the concepts such as active distribution network, the new situations that the following power distribution network will face distributed generation resource and access on a large scale.
Distributed generation resource accesses power distribution network, has certain influence to links such as power distribution network substation locating and sizings, is embodied in point
The capacity of cloth power supply is worth, and the capacity of distributed generation resource value normally behaves as to be held by the capacity of credit, referred to as confidence
Amount.The confidence capacity for such as ignoring distributed generation resource during distribution network planning, will be so that the practical feelings of program results substantial deviation
Condition causes the significant wastage of investment of substations.
It is traditional to distribution network planning during, be to obtain the installed capacity of distributed generation resource multiplied by a certain coefficient mostly
The power generating value of the power generating value of distributed generation resource, reference distribution formula power supply assesses the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.However,
The power output of distributed generation resource has randomness and intermittence more, if by the installed capacity of distributed generation resource directly as power distribution network
The capacity reference of distributed generation resource in planning process, the capacity of excessively high estimation distributed generation resource is worth, confidence Capacity Assessment is quasi-
True property is low.
Summary of the invention
Based on this, it is necessary to for the low problem of traditional confidence Capacity Assessment accuracy, provide a kind of confidence capacity inspection
Survey accuracy high distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method, apparatus, medium and computer equipment.
A kind of distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method, comprising:
The historical load obtained in the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and preset duration is bent
Line, the power distribution network to be planned according to the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition do not access distribution
The equivalent load duration curve of formula power supply obtains the first curve；
The operating parameter values for obtaining the distributed generation resource, according to the operating parameter values, the distributed generation resource it is pre-
If peak power output obtains the output power of the distributed generation resource and the power output probability of the corresponding output power；
According to first curve, the default peak power output of the distributed generation resource, the distributed generation resource it is defeated
Power and corresponding power output probability out obtain the lasting song of equivalent load that the power distribution network to be planned accesses the distributed generation resource
Line obtains the second curve；
Probability, first curve and second curve are carried according to default maximum lose of the power distribution network to be planned, is obtained
Take the confidence capacity of the distributed generation resource.
A kind of distributed generation resource confidence capacity checking apparatus, comprising:
First curve acquisition module, for obtaining the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and pre-
If the historical load curve in duration, according to the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition to
The equivalent load duration curve that planning power distribution network does not access distributed generation resource obtains the first curve；
Probability of contributing obtains module, for obtaining the operating parameter values of the distributed generation resource, according to the running parameter
Value, the default peak power output of the distributed generation resource obtain the output power of the distributed generation resource and correspond to the output
The power output probability of power；
Second curve acquisition module, for the default maximum work output according to first curve, the distributed generation resource
The output power and corresponding power output probability of rate, the distributed generation resource obtain the power distribution network to be planned and access the distribution
The equivalent load duration curve of formula power supply obtains the second curve；
Confidence capacity calculation module, for carrying probability, described first according to default maximum lose of the power distribution network to be planned
Curve and second curve, obtain the confidence capacity of the distributed generation resource.
Above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method and apparatus are not accessed point by obtaining power distribution network to be planned respectively
The equivalent load duration curve of cloth power supply and the equivalent load duration curve of access distributed generation resource, respectively obtain the first curve
With the second curve, probability, the first curve and the second curve are then carried according to default maximum lose of power distribution network to be planned, obtain distribution
The confidence capacity of formula power supply；Wherein, the second curve be according to the first curve, distributed generation resource default peak power output, point
The output power of cloth power supply and corresponding power output probability acquire, and the output power of distributed generation resource and distributed generation resource
Power output probability be acquired according to operating parameter values, the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, obtained point
The power output probability of cloth power supply can embody the randomness and intermittence of the power output of distributed generation resource；Therefore, by distributed electrical
The second curve that the power output probability in source is taken into account has fully considered the randomness and intermittence of distributed generation resource power output, from
And the confidence capacity accuracy of the distributed generation resource finally detected is high.
A kind of medium, is stored with computer program, and above-mentioned distribution is realized when the computer program of storage is executed by processor
The step of formula power supply confidence capacity check method.
A kind of computer equipment can be run on a memory and on a processor including memory, processor and storage
The step of computer program, processor realizes above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method when executing computer program.
Above-mentioned medium and computer equipment, similarly can due to realizing above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method
Improve the detection accuracy of the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method in an embodiment；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method in another embodiment；
Fig. 3 is the structure chart of distributed generation resource confidence capacity checking apparatus in an embodiment.
Specific embodiment
With reference to Fig. 1, distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method in an embodiment includes the following steps.
S110: the history obtained in the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and preset duration is negative
Lotus curve does not access distribution according to the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition power distribution network to be planned
The equivalent load duration curve of formula power supply obtains the first curve.
Power distribution network can generally carry a plurality of types of loads, for example, primary industry power load, secondary industry power load,
Tertiary industry power load；The load that different regions need may be different, therefore the corresponding load class of power distribution network of different regions
Type may be different.
Power distribution network to be planned refers to the power distribution network where the area for needing to plan access distributed generation resource；Determine distribution to be planned
After net, it may be determined that the load for each type for including in power distribution network to be planned, each type load are respectively corresponding with default load peak
With the historical load curve in preset duration.Wherein, default load peak refers to that planning is to the maximum of the load of corresponding types in advance
Load value can be pre-stored；Historical load curve in preset duration refers to the load value composition of the various time points in preset duration
Curve, can be stored in advance.
S130: obtaining the operating parameter values of distributed generation resource, defeated according to operating parameter values, the default maximum of distributed generation resource
Power obtains the output power of distributed generation resource and the power output probability of corresponding output power out.
The operating parameter values of distributed generation resource refer to the numerical value of parameter relevant to the working condition of distributed generation resource.Different
The corresponding running parameter of distributed generation resource is different；For example, the running parameter of wind power generation plant is wind speed, photovoltaic power generation apparatus
Running parameter is intensity of illumination.The default peak power output of distributed generation resource is specifically arranged according to actual needs, different points
The corresponding default peak power output of cloth power supply may be different.In the present embodiment, the default maximum work output of distributed generation resource
Rate is the rated output power of distributed generation resource.
The power output of distributed generation resource has randomness and intermittence.The power output that acquisition distributed generation resource corresponds to output power is general
Rate, for indicating a possibility that practical power provided of distributed generation resource reaches output power size.
S150: according to the first curve, the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, distributed generation resource output power and
Corresponding power output probability, the equivalent load duration curve for obtaining power distribution network access distributed generation resource to be planned obtain the second curve.
On the basis of equivalent load duration curve when not accessing distributed generation resource as the first curve, in conjunction with distribution
Default peak power output, output power and the corresponding power output probability of formula power supply obtain power distribution network to be planned and are distributed in access
Equivalent load duration curve after formula power supply takes into account distributed generation resource power output randomness and intermittent feature.
S170: probability, the first curve and the second curve are carried according to default maximum lose of power distribution network to be planned, obtained distributed
The confidence capacity of power supply.
It loses and carries probability of the power supply volume of probability assignment power grid less than workload demand.The default maximum load probability that loses is that planning can connect
The maximum mistake received carries probability, can specifically be arranged according to actual needs.
Above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method does not access distributed electrical by obtaining power distribution network to be planned respectively
The equivalent load duration curve in source and the equivalent load duration curve of access distributed generation resource, respectively obtain the first curve and second
Then curve carries probability, the first curve and the second curve according to default maximum lose of power distribution network to be planned, obtains distributed generation resource
Confidence capacity；Wherein, the second curve is according to the first curve, the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, distributed electrical
The output power in source and corresponding power output probability acquire；And the output power of distributed generation resource and the power output of distributed generation resource
Probability is to be acquired according to operating parameter values, the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, the obtained distributed electrical
The power output probability in source can embody the randomness and intermittence of the power output of distributed generation resource；Therefore, going out distributed generation resource
The second curve that power probability is taken into account has fully considered the randomness and intermittence of distributed generation resource power output, thus finally
The confidence capacity accuracy for detecting obtained distributed generation resource is high.
Above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method, since the detection for improving distributed generation resource confidence capacity is accurate
Property, when being applied to distribution network planning, can accurate evaluation distributed generation resource contribute the substitution effect contributed to substation, for containing distribution
The distribution network planning substation addressing constant volume of formula power supply provides reference frame, may make the result of distribution network planning more acurrate, from
And improve the reliability of substation capacity planning.
It in one embodiment, include step S111 and step S115 with reference to Fig. 2, step S110.
S111: the history obtained in the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and preset duration is negative
Lotus curve.
S113: the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and corresponding historical load curve are calculated
The sum of products, obtain the timing load curve that power distribution network to be planned does not access distributed generation resource.
Historical load curve corresponds to the curve in preset duration, and in the present embodiment, preset duration is 1 year, i.e. history is negative
Lotus curve is the yearly load curve that the load value at the time point of each unit gap in 1 year is constituted.Specifically, jth type load pair
The default load peak answered is Mj, the corresponding historical load curve of jth type load is cj(t), then the timing load being calculated is bent
Line are as follows:
S115: corresponding equivalent load duration curve is obtained according to timing load curve, obtains the first curve.
Specifically, the abscissa of timing load curve is the time, and ordinate is load value.Step S115 includes: by timing
The load value of the corresponding ordinate of each time point of abscissa is arranged according to size order in load curve, by abscissa and vertical seat
Mark is exchanged, and carries out marking change processing to ordinate, obtains the second curve.Wherein, the abscissa of the second curve is load value, is indulged
Coordinate is probability.Such as, it is assumed that time point, abscissa was the ordinate F of the point of P on the second curve as unit of day0It (P) is day
Load value is more than or equal to the probability of P；Then accordingly, 1-F0(P) it is regarded as mistake when power supply volume is P and carries probability.
Power distribution network to be planned, which is acquired, by using step S111 to step S115 does not access the equivalent of distributed generation resource
Based model for load duration curve, including a plurality of types of loads are considered synthesis, accuracy is high.
In one embodiment, step S115 obtains original loads duration curve after carrying out marking change processing to ordinate,
Original loads duration curve is modified to obtain the first curve according to preset random fault curve.For example, modified specific
Operation, which can be, is overlapped random fault curve and original loads duration curve.Random fault curve is according to random fault
Probability of occurrence generate curve, by the way that according to random fault curve amendment original loads duration curve, random fault is considered
Inside, the accuracy of the first curve of acquisition can be improved.
In one embodiment, operating parameter values include wind speed and real-time Intensity of the sunlight.Accordingly, step S130 includes
Step (a11) is to step (a23).
Step (a11): if distributed generation resource is wind power generation plant, the wind speed of wind power generation plant is obtained.
Step (a12): defeated according to wind speed, default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, default blower
Characterisitic parameter and the corresponding default peak power output of wind power generation plant obtain the output power of wind power generation plant out.
Default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, default blower output characteristics parameter and wind-power electricity generation
The corresponding default peak power output of device can be configured according to the actual situation.In the present embodiment, wind power generation plant pair
The default peak power output answered is the rated output power of wind power generation plant.
Step (a13): it is filled according to wind speed, default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, wind-power electricity generation
Set the corresponding default scale parameter of corresponding preset shape parameter, wind-force electric discharge device, wind power generation plant output power and
The corresponding default peak power output of wind power generation plant obtains the power output probability of wind power generation plant.
The corresponding preset shape parameter of wind power generation plant and the corresponding default scale parameter of wind-force electric discharge device can be preparatory
Storage.
Step (a21): if distributed generation resource is photovoltaic power generation apparatus, real-time Intensity of the sunlight is obtained.
Step (a22): according to the preset area of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate in real-time Intensity of the sunlight, photovoltaic power generation apparatus
And default transfer efficiency of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate under maximum Intensity of the sunlight, obtain the output work of photovoltaic electric discharge device
Rate.
A kind of area of each photovoltaic power generation plate that photovoltaic power generation apparatus is included and each photovoltaic power generation plate are in maximum sunlight
Value is usually fixed according to the transfer efficiency under intensity.The preset area of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate and each piece in photovoltaic power generation apparatus
Default transfer efficiency of the photovoltaic power generation plate under maximum Intensity of the sunlight can be corresponding according to the photovoltaic power generation apparatus of actual use
It is stored after acquisition.
Step (a23): according to the parameter preset of photovoltaic power generation apparatus, the output power of photovoltaic electric discharge device and photovoltaic power generation
The corresponding default peak power output of device obtains the power output probability of photovoltaic power generation apparatus.
Parameter preset can be determined according to the photovoltaic power generation apparatus of actual use；Different photovoltaic power generation apparatus is corresponding
Parameter preset may be different.
There are many types of distributed generation resource.It is wind by distinguishing the distribution network planning distributed generation resource to be accessed to be planned
Power generation device or photovoltaic power generation apparatus are respectively adopted different methods to wind power generation plant and photovoltaic power generation apparatus and calculate
Corresponding output power and power output probability are obtained, accuracy is high.
In one embodiment, step (a12) includes:
Step (a13) includes:
Step (a22) includes:
Step (a23) includes:
Wherein, v is wind speed, viFor default incision wind speed, vrTo preset rated wind speed, vcFor default cut-off wind speed, Rmax1For
The corresponding default peak power output of wind power generation plant, a, b, c are respectively first that default blower output characteristics parameter includes
Characterisitic parameter, the second characterisitic parameter and third characterisitic parameter, f (v) are the first intermediate parameters, and R (v) is the defeated of wind power generation plant
Power out；K1For the corresponding preset shape parameter of wind power generation plant, C1For the corresponding default scale parameter of wind-force electric discharge device, w
It (v) is the second intermediate parameters, f-1(v) inverse function for being f (v), r1For the power output probability of wind power generation plant.
Wherein, r is real-time Intensity of the sunlight, and i is the serial number of photovoltaic power generation apparatus photovoltaic power generation plate, and n is photovoltaic power generation
The total block data of plate, AiFor the preset area of i-th piece of photovoltaic power generation plate, ηiIt is i-th piece of photovoltaic power generation plate in maximum Intensity of the sunlight
Under default transfer efficiency, R (g) is the output power of photovoltaic electric discharge device, α, β be respectively the first parameter in parameter preset and
Second parameter, Rmax2For the corresponding default peak power output of photovoltaic power generation apparatus, r2For the power output probability of photovoltaic power generation apparatus.
Statistical analysis, Intensity of the sunlight can approximation regard Beta distribution as, probability density function is as follows:
In formula: α, β are the form parameter of Beta, correspond to the first parameter and the second parameter in parameter preset；rmaxTo work as
Its maximum Intensity of the sunlight；Г (x) is Gamma function.
Pass through the output work of the available photovoltaic power generation apparatus of probability density function f (r) and R (g) of Intensity of the sunlight
The probability density function of rate is also Beta distribution, so as to be derived from formula 5.
The output of wind power generation plant is respectively obtained by using above-mentioned formula 1, formula 2, formula 3, formula 4 and formula 5
Power, the output power of power output probability and photovoltaic power generation apparatus and power output probability, wind power generation plant and photovoltaic power generation are filled
The randomness and intermittence for setting power output are taken into account, and can effectively determine the wind power generation plant and photovoltaic power generation dress of randomness power output
The power output probability set.
Specifically, formula 2 is the probability density function of wind speed v, Follow Weibull Distribution；Wind power generation plant is corresponding
Preset shape parameter and default scale parameter are two parameters of Weibull distribution.In the present embodiment, before step (a13) also
Comprising steps of the history actual measurement wind speed of acquisition wind power generation plant generates historical wind speed curve, according to historical wind speed curve acquisition
Mean wind speed and standard deviation obtain form parameter and ruler in probability density function according to mean wind speed and standard deviation approximate calculation
It spends parameter and stores and obtain the corresponding preset shape parameter of wind power generation plant and default scale parameter.
In one embodiment, step S150 includes:
Wherein, RmaxFor the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, R is the output power of distributed generation resource, and r (R) is
The corresponding power output probability of distributed generation resource, P are the initial parameter in the first curve, F0It (P-R) be corresponding parameter is the first of P-R
Curve, F*It (P) is the second curve.Specifically, if distributed generation resource is wind power generation plant, Rmax=Rmax1, R=R (g), r
(R)=r1；If distributed generation resource is wind power generation plant, Rmax=Rmax2, R=R (v), r (R)=r2。
After accessing distributed generation resource, it is believed that load total amount reduces R with the probability of r (R), i.e., does not access distributed generation resource
Equivalent load duration curve F0(P) to left R, therefore the equivalent load that can be derived from after access distributed generation resource continues
The calculation formula of curve is formula 6.
Specifically, can with Weibull be distributed probability-distribution function g (P) approximate fits not access distributed generation resource etc.
Imitate based model for load duration curve F0(P), formula are as follows:
Wherein, PminAnd PmaxDo not access respectively load minimum value in the equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource and
Load maximum value.It will be in formula 8Substituting into formula 7 as the R in formula 7 can be obtained Pmin< P < PmaxWhen
F0(P)。
It is fitted equivalent load duration curve by the probability-distribution function using Weibull distribution, realization parsing is simultaneously final
The confidence capacity for solving distributed generation resource, the Monte Carlo simulation compared in traditional technology generate assessment of failure distributed generation resource
The method of confidence capacity, required time are obviously shortened, eased convenient.
It in one embodiment, include step S171 to step S177 with continued reference to Fig. 2, step S170.
S171: the first curve and the second curve are fitted using nonlinear least square method, obtain the first curve pair
One group of first fitting parameter answered and corresponding one group of second fitting parameter of the second curve.
S173: probability and the first fitting parameter are carried according to default maximum lose, power distribution network to be planned is obtained and does not access distribution
The equivalent power supply volume of the first of power supply.
Power distribution network to be planned in the case that first equivalent power supply volume is when not accessing distributed generation resource, maximum mistake load probability
The power supply volume of required satisfaction.
S175: probability and the second fitting parameter are carried according to default maximum lose, obtain power distribution network access distributed electrical to be planned
The equivalent power supply volume of the second of source.
Power distribution network institute to be planned in the case that second equivalent power supply volume is when accessing distributed generation resource, maximum mistake load probability
The power supply volume that need to meet.
S177: the difference for calculating the first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume obtains the confidence appearance of distributed generation resource
Amount.
The confidence capacity of distributed generation resource is believed that the equivalent power supply after access distributed generation resource in the case where setting reliability objectives
The decreasing value of amount, therefore, the difference for calculating the first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume obtain the confidence of distributed generation resource
Capacity.Specifically, in the present embodiment, step S177 is to calculate the first equivalent power supply volume and subtract the difference of the second equivalent power supply volume to obtain
To the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
The first fitting parameter and the second fitting ginseng are respectively obtained by carrying out curve fitting to the first curve and the second curve
Number, then the first fitting parameter, the second fitting parameter and default maximum mistake are carried probability and carry out that the first equivalent confession is calculated respectively
Electricity and the second equivalent power supply volume, the difference for calculating the first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume obtain confidence capacity, quasi-
True property is high.
It in one embodiment, is (P to one group of first fitting parameter that the first curve matching obtains0,min,P0,max,c0,k0),
It is to one group of second fitting parameter that the second curve matching obtains
Step S173 includes:
Step S175 includes:
Wherein,Probability, k are carried for default maximum lose0、c0、P0,max、P0,minFour for including for one group of first fitting parameter
Parameter, k*、c*、P* min、P* maxFor four parameters that one group of second fitting parameter includes, P0For the first equivalent power supply volume, P*It is
Two equivalent power supply volumes.
The mistake for setting power distribution network to be planned carries probability demands and is less than or equal toI.e. default maximum mistake carries probability and isIt is not connecing
In the case where entering distributed generation resource, required equivalent power supply volume should at least meetIn access distributed generation resource
In the case of, required equivalent power supply volume should at least meetIt can be pushed away according to fitting formula and the parameter of fitting
It leads to obtain formula 9 and formula 10, so as to which the first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume is calculated.
With reference to Fig. 3, distributed generation resource confidence capacity checking apparatus in an embodiment, including the first curve acquisition module
110, power output probability obtains module 130, the second curve acquisition module 150 and confidence capacity calculation module 170.
First curve acquisition module 110 for obtain the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and
Historical load curve in preset duration waits advising according to the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition
It draws power distribution network and does not access the equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource and obtain the first curve.
Power output probability obtains the operating parameter values that module 130 is used to obtain distributed generation resource, according to operating parameter values, distribution
The default peak power output of formula power supply obtains the output power of distributed generation resource and the power output probability of corresponding output power.
Second curve acquisition module 150 is used for according to the first curve, the default peak power output of distributed generation resource, distribution
The output power of formula power supply and corresponding power output probability, the equivalent load for obtaining power distribution network access distributed generation resource to be planned continue
Curve obtains the second curve.
Confidence capacity calculation module 170 be used for according to power distribution network to be planned it is default it is maximum lose carry probability, the first curve and
Second curve obtains the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
Above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity checking apparatus obtains distribution to be planned by the first curve acquisition module 110
Net does not access the equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource, the second curve acquisition module 150 obtains power distribution network access to be planned
The equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource, respectively obtains the first curve and the second curve, then confidence capacity calculation module
170 carry probability, the first curve and the second curve according to default maximum lose of power distribution network to be planned, obtain the confidence of distributed generation resource
Capacity；Wherein, the second curve is default maximum output of the second curve acquisition module 150 according to the first curve, distributed generation resource
Power, the output power of distributed generation resource and corresponding power output probability acquire；And the output power of distributed generation resource and point
The power output probability of cloth power supply is that power output probability acquisition module 130 is defeated according to operating parameter values, the default maximum of distributed generation resource
Power acquires out, and the power output probability of the obtained distributed generation resource can embody the random of the power output of distributed generation resource
Property with it is intermittent；Therefore, the second curve that the power output probability of distributed generation resource is taken into account distribution has been fully considered into
The randomness and intermittence of power supply power output, so that the confidence capacity accuracy of the distributed generation resource finally detected is high.
In one embodiment, the first curve acquisition module 110 is corresponding for obtaining each type load in power distribution network to be planned
Historical load curve in default load peak and preset duration；Calculate the corresponding preset negative of each type load in power distribution network to be planned
The sum of products of lotus peak value and corresponding historical load curve, obtain power distribution network to be planned do not access distributed generation resource timing it is negative
Lotus curve；Corresponding equivalent load duration curve is obtained according to timing load curve, obtains the first curve.In this way, acquiring
Power distribution network to be planned does not access the equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource, including a plurality of types of loads are considered synthesis,
Accuracy is high.
Specifically, the abscissa of timing load curve is the time, and ordinate is load value.First curve acquisition module 110
The load value of the corresponding ordinate of each time point of abscissa in timing load curve is arranged according to size order, by abscissa
It is exchanged with ordinate, and ordinate is carried out to mark change processing, obtain the second curve.Wherein, the abscissa of the second curve is negative
Charge values, ordinate are probability.
In one embodiment, the first curve acquisition module 110 obtains original minus after carrying out marking change processing to ordinate
Lotus duration curve is modified original loads duration curve to obtain the first curve according to preset random fault curve.At random
Damage curve is the curve generated according to the probability of occurrence of random fault, by being held according to random fault curve amendment original loads
Continuous curve, random fault is taken into account, the accuracy of the first curve of acquisition can be improved.
In one embodiment, operating parameter values include wind speed and real-time Intensity of the sunlight.Probability of contributing obtains module 130
For obtaining the wind speed of wind power generation plant when distributed generation resource is wind power generation plant；According to wind speed, default incision wind
Speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, default blower output characteristics parameter and the corresponding default maximum of wind power generation plant
Output power obtains the output power of wind power generation plant；According to wind speed, default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default section
The only corresponding preset shape parameter of wind speed, wind power generation plant, the corresponding default scale parameter of wind-force electric discharge device, wind-power electricity generation
The corresponding default peak power output of the output power and wind power generation plant of device obtains the power output probability of wind power generation plant；
When distributed generation resource is photovoltaic power generation apparatus, real-time Intensity of the sunlight is obtained；It is sent out according to real-time Intensity of the sunlight, photovoltaic
Preset area and each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate the presetting under maximum Intensity of the sunlight of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate in electric installation
Transfer efficiency obtains the output power of photovoltaic electric discharge device；According to the parameter preset of photovoltaic power generation apparatus, photovoltaic electric discharge device
Output power and the corresponding default peak power output of photovoltaic power generation apparatus obtain the power output probability of photovoltaic power generation apparatus.In this way,
It is wind power generation plant or photovoltaic power generation apparatus by distinguishing the distribution network planning distributed generation resource to be accessed to be planned, to wind
Power generation device and photovoltaic power generation apparatus are respectively adopted different methods and corresponding output power and power output are calculated generally
Rate, accuracy are high.
Specifically, power output probability acquisition module 130 can be used above-mentioned formula 1, formula 2, formula 3, formula 4 and formula 5 and divide
It is general that the output power of wind power generation plant, the output power of power output probability and photovoltaic power generation apparatus and power output are not acquired
Rate.In this way, the randomness and intermittence that wind power generation plant and photovoltaic power generation apparatus are contributed are taken into account, can effectively determine with
The wind power generation plant of machine power output and the power output probability of photovoltaic power generation apparatus.
In one embodiment, the second curve acquisition module 150 acquires the second curve using above-mentioned formula 6.
Specifically, can with Weibull be distributed probability-distribution function g (P) approximate fits not access distributed generation resource etc.
Imitate based model for load duration curve F0(P), formula are as follows:
Wherein, PminAnd PmaxDo not access respectively load minimum value in the equivalent load duration curve of distributed generation resource and
Load maximum value.It will be in formula 8Substituting into formula 7 as the R in formula 7 can be obtained Pmin< P < PmaxWhen
F0(P)。
It is fitted equivalent load duration curve by the probability-distribution function using Weibull distribution, realization parsing is simultaneously final
The confidence capacity for solving distributed generation resource, the Monte Carlo simulation compared in traditional technology generate assessment of failure distributed generation resource
The method of confidence capacity, required time are obviously shortened, eased convenient.
In one embodiment, confidence capacity calculation module 170 includes parameter fitting unit (not shown), the first computing unit
(not shown), the second computing unit (not shown) and confidence capacity calculating unit (not shown).
Parameter fitting unit is used to be fitted the first curve and the second curve using nonlinear least square method, obtains
Corresponding one group of first fitting parameter of first curve and corresponding one group of second fitting parameter of the second curve.First computing unit is used
In carrying probability and the first fitting parameter according to default maximum lose, obtains power distribution network to be planned and do not access first of distributed generation resource etc.
Imitate power supply volume.Second computing unit is used to carry probability and the second fitting parameter according to default maximum lose, and obtains power distribution network to be planned
Access the second equivalent power supply volume of distributed generation resource.Confidence capacity calculating unit is for calculating first equivalent power supply volume and second etc.
The difference of effect power supply volume obtains the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
The first fitting parameter and the second fitting ginseng are respectively obtained by carrying out curve fitting to the first curve and the second curve
Number, then the first fitting parameter, the second fitting parameter and default maximum mistake are carried probability and carry out that the first equivalent confession is calculated respectively
Electricity and the second equivalent power supply volume, the difference for calculating the first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume obtain confidence capacity, quasi-
True property is high.
Specifically, in the present embodiment, confidence capacity calculating unit is to calculate the first equivalent power supply volume to subtract the second equivalent confession
The difference of electricity obtains the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.Specifically, the first computing unit specifically uses above-mentioned formula 9 to calculate
To the first equivalent power supply volume；Second computing unit specifically uses above-mentioned formula 10 that the second equivalent power supply volume is calculated.
A kind of medium, is stored with computer program, and above-mentioned distribution is realized when the computer program of storage is executed by processor
The step of formula power supply confidence capacity check method.Specifically, medium is readable storage medium storing program for executing.
A kind of computer equipment can be run on a memory and on a processor including memory, processor and storage
The step of computer program, processor realizes above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method when executing computer program.
Above-mentioned medium and computer equipment, similarly can due to realizing above-mentioned distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method
Improve the detection accuracy of the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
Each technical characteristic of embodiment described above can be combined arbitrarily, for simplicity of description, not to above-mentioned reality
It applies all possible combination of each technical characteristic in example to be all described, as long as however, the combination of these technical characteristics is not deposited
In contradiction, all should be considered as described in this specification.
The embodiments described above only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but simultaneously
It cannot therefore be construed as limiting the scope of the patent.It should be pointed out that coming for those of ordinary skill in the art
It says, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, various modifications and improvements can be made, these belong to protection of the invention
Range.Therefore, the scope of protection of the patent of the invention shall be subject to the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method characterized by comprising
Obtain the historical load curve in the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and preset duration, root
Distributed electrical is not accessed according to power distribution network to be planned described in the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition
The equivalent load duration curve in source obtains the first curve；Wherein, each type load includes primary industry power load, secondary industry use
At least one of electric load and tertiary industry power load；
The operating parameter values for obtaining the distributed generation resource, according to the operating parameter values, the distributed generation resource it is default most
Big output power obtains the output power of the distributed generation resource and the power output probability of the corresponding output power；
According to first curve, the default peak power output of the distributed generation resource, the output work of the distributed generation resource
Rate and corresponding power output probability obtain the equivalent load duration curve that the power distribution network to be planned accesses the distributed generation resource and obtain
To the second curve；
Probability, first curve and second curve are carried according to default maximum lose of the power distribution network to be planned, obtains institute
State the confidence capacity of distributed generation resource.
2. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the acquisition is to be planned
Historical load curve in power distribution network in the corresponding default load peak of each type load and preset duration, it is corresponding according to each type load
Default load peak and historical load curve acquisition described in the power distribution network to be planned equivalent load that does not access distributed generation resource hold
Continuous curve obtains the first curve, comprising:
Obtain the historical load curve in the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and preset duration；
Calculate multiplying for the corresponding default load peak of each type load in the power distribution network to be planned and corresponding historical load curve
The sum of product, obtains the timing load curve that the power distribution network to be planned does not access distributed generation resource；
Corresponding equivalent load duration curve is obtained according to the timing load curve, obtains first curve.
3. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the operating parameter values
Including wind speed and real-time Intensity of the sunlight, the operating parameter values for obtaining the distributed generation resource are joined according to the work
Numerical value, the distributed generation resource default peak power output obtain the distributed generation resource output power and correspondence it is described defeated
The power output probability of power out, comprising:
If the distributed generation resource is wind power generation plant, the wind speed of the wind power generation plant is obtained；
According to the wind speed, default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, default blower output characteristics parameter
Default peak power output corresponding with the wind power generation plant obtains the output power of the wind power generation plant；
According to the wind speed, the default incision wind speed, the default rated wind speed, the default cut-off wind speed, the wind-force
The corresponding preset shape parameter of power generator, the corresponding default scale parameter of the wind power generation plant, wind-power electricity generation dress
The corresponding default peak power output of output power and the wind power generation plant set obtains going out for the wind power generation plant
Power probability；
If the distributed generation resource is photovoltaic power generation apparatus, real-time Intensity of the sunlight is obtained；
According to the preset area of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate in the real-time Intensity of the sunlight, the photovoltaic power generation apparatus and each
Default transfer efficiency of the block photovoltaic power generation plate under maximum Intensity of the sunlight, obtains the output work of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus
Rate；
According to the parameter preset of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus, the output power of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus and the photovoltaic power generation
The corresponding default peak power output of device obtains the power output probability of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus.
4. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 3, which is characterized in that described according to the wind
Speed, default incision wind speed, default rated wind speed, default cut-off wind speed, default blower output characteristics parameter and the wind-power electricity generation
The corresponding default peak power output of device obtains the output power of the wind power generation plant, comprising:
It is described according to the wind speed, it is the default incision wind speed, the default rated wind speed, the default cut-off wind speed, described
The corresponding preset shape parameter of wind power generation plant, the corresponding default scale parameter of the wind power generation plant, wind-force hair
The output power of electric installation and the corresponding default peak power output of the wind power generation plant obtain the wind power generation plant
Power output probability, comprising:
The preset area according to each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate in the real-time Intensity of the sunlight, the photovoltaic power generation apparatus with
And default transfer efficiency of each piece of photovoltaic power generation plate under maximum Intensity of the sunlight, obtain the defeated of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus
Power out, comprising:
It is described corresponding default according to parameter preset, the output power of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus and the photovoltaic power generation apparatus
Peak power output obtains the power output probability of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus, comprising:
Wherein, v is the wind speed, viFor the default incision wind speed, vrFor the default rated wind speed, vcIt is described default section
Only wind speed, Rmax1For the corresponding default peak power output of the wind power generation plant, a, b, c are respectively that the default blower is defeated
The first characterisitic parameter, the second characterisitic parameter and the third characterisitic parameter that characterisitic parameter includes out, f (v) are the first intermediate parameters, R
It (v) is the output power of the wind power generation plant；K1For the corresponding preset shape parameter of the wind power generation plant, C1For institute
The corresponding default scale parameter of wind power generation plant is stated, w (v) is the second intermediate parameters, f-1(v) inverse function for being f (v), r1For
The power output probability of the wind power generation plant；
G is the real-time Intensity of the sunlight, and i is the serial number of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus photovoltaic power generation plate, and n is photovoltaic power generation plate
Total block data, AiFor the preset area of i-th piece of photovoltaic power generation plate, ηiIt is i-th piece of photovoltaic power generation plate under maximum Intensity of the sunlight
Default transfer efficiency, R (g) is the output power of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus, and α, β are respectively the in the parameter preset
One parameter and the second parameter, Rmax2For the corresponding default peak power output of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus, r2For the photovoltaic power generation
The power output probability of device, Г (x) are Gamma function.
5. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that described according to described
One curve, the default peak power output of the distributed generation resource, the output power of the distributed generation resource and corresponding power output
Probability obtains the equivalent load duration curve that the power distribution network to be planned accesses the distributed generation resource and obtains the second curve, wraps
It includes:
Wherein, RmaxFor the default peak power output of the distributed generation resource, R is the output power of the distributed generation resource, r
It (R) is the corresponding power output probability of the distributed generation resource, P is the initial parameter in first curve, F0It (P-R) is corresponding ginseng
Number is the first curve of P-R, F*It (P) is second curve.
6. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 1, which is characterized in that it is described according to
It plans that default maximum lose of power distribution network carries probability, first curve and second curve, obtains the distributed generation resource
Confidence capacity, comprising:
First curve and second curve are fitted using nonlinear least square method, obtain first curve
Corresponding one group of first fitting parameter and corresponding one group of second fitting parameter of second curve；
Probability and first fitting parameter are carried according to default maximum lose, the acquisition power distribution network to be planned does not access described
The equivalent power supply volume of the first of distributed generation resource；
Probability and second fitting parameter are carried according to default maximum lose, obtains described described point of power distribution network access to be planned
The equivalent power supply volume of the second of cloth power supply；
The difference for calculating the described first equivalent power supply volume and the second equivalent power supply volume obtains the confidence of the distributed generation resource
Capacity.
7. distributed generation resource confidence capacity check method according to claim 6, which is characterized in that described according to described pre-
If maximum lose carries probability and first fitting parameter, the power distribution network to be planned does not access the distributed generation resource the is obtained
One equivalent power supply volume, comprising:
It is described that probability and second fitting parameter are carried according to default maximum lose, it obtains the power distribution network to be planned and accesses institute
State the second equivalent power supply volume of distributed generation resource, comprising:
Wherein,Probability, k are carried for default maximum lose0、c0、P0,max、P0,minInclude for the first fitting parameter described in one group
Four parameters, k*、c*、P* min、P* maxFor four parameters that the second fitting parameter described in one group includes, P0For the described first equivalent confession
Electricity, P*For the described second equivalent power supply volume.
8. a kind of distributed generation resource confidence capacity checking apparatus characterized by comprising
First curve acquisition module, for obtain the corresponding default load peak of each type load in power distribution network to be planned and it is default when
Historical load curve in length, it is to be planned according to the corresponding default load peak of each type load and historical load curve acquisition
The equivalent load duration curve that power distribution network does not access distributed generation resource obtains the first curve；Wherein, each type load includes the first production
At least one of industry power load, secondary industry power load and tertiary industry power load；
Probability of contributing obtains module, for obtaining the operating parameter values of the distributed generation resource, according to the operating parameter values, institute
The default peak power output for stating distributed generation resource obtains the output power and the corresponding output power of the distributed generation resource
Power output probability；
Second curve acquisition module, for the default peak power output according to first curve, the distributed generation resource, institute
The output power and corresponding power output probability of distributed generation resource are stated, the power distribution network to be planned is obtained and accesses the distributed generation resource
Equivalent load duration curve obtain the second curve；
Confidence capacity calculation module, for carrying probability, first curve according to default maximum lose of the power distribution network to be planned
With second curve, the confidence capacity of the distributed generation resource is obtained.
9. a kind of medium, is stored with computer program, which is characterized in that the realization when computer program of storage is executed by processor
Such as the step of any one of claim 1-7 the method.
10. a kind of computer equipment including memory, processor and stores the meter that can be run on a memory and on a processor
Calculation machine program, which is characterized in that the processor is realized as described in claim any one of 1-7 when executing the computer program
The step of method.
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