CN107330528A - A kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven - Google Patents
A kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven Download PDFInfo
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- CN107330528A CN107330528A CN201710599112.7A CN201710599112A CN107330528A CN 107330528 A CN107330528 A CN 107330528A CN 201710599112 A CN201710599112 A CN 201710599112A CN 107330528 A CN107330528 A CN 107330528A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of space station Product maintenance analysis method of risk driven, the purpose for improving the validity that maintainability analysis is carried out to Space Product can be reached；This method obtains risk integrative model by combined reliability model, security model and maintainability model, and according to system maintenance data, analysis of uncertainty is carried out using statistical method, monte carlo simulation methodology, influence degree of the Product maintenance to product riskses is obtained, the validity of maintainability analysis is improved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to modeling and data analysis technique, belong to maintainability field, and in particular to a kind of sky of risk driven
Between Product maintenance analysis method.
Background technology
For Space Product, do not consider generally it is in-orbit repaired, but with space-orbit maintenance technique and manned boat
The development of its technology, in-orbit can be repaired to control and reduce spacecraft application risk to spacecraft.Solar-system operation is one
The activity of excessive risk, the important goal for being product design and analysis of controlling risk.Traditional maintainability quantitative analysis method is inadequate
Comprehensively, it is impossible to fully reflect Space Product Maintainability, so as to cause the validity of capability of maintenance design relatively low.
In order to meet the objective reality of Space Product maintainability analysis, it is necessary to propose that one kind can improve to enter Space Product
The method of the validity of row maintainability analysis.
The content of the invention
In view of this, the invention provides a kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven, it can reach and carry
The high purpose to Space Product maintainability analysis validity.
The present invention to achieve the above object, is adopted the following technical scheme that：
A kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven, comprises the following steps：
Step 1: defining product riskses requirement and maintainability requirement；Risk require to include the requirement of security Quantitative risk or
The requirement of Quantitative Reliability risk；Maintainability requirement is maintainability quantitative target；
Step 2: carrying out network analysis to the product of selection, composition, function and the mission profile of the product are determined；It is described
Mission profile is the working condition of the product in each task phase；
Step 3: according to the composition of product, function and mission profile, setting up security model, the reliability model of product
And maintainability model, using event tree or Event Sequence Diagram, set up product riskses collective model；
Step 4: according to product design, experiment and emulation data, data processing is carried out, using statistical method, emulation mode
Calculating obtains Product maintenance data and product riskses probability；
Step 5: the Product maintenance data obtained according to step 4, are obtained using statistical method, computer emulation method
Product maintenance is distributed and corresponding Uncertainty distribution, and uses statistical method, computer according to risk integrative model
Emulation mode obtains the Uncertainty distribution of product ultimate risk state；
Step 6: according to Product maintenance data and the uncertain influence degree to risk, analysis product maintainability pair
Product riskses requirement and the matching degree of maintainability requirement, take control measure to reduce shadow of the capability of maintenance design to product riskses
Ring.
Further, the mission profile is the working condition of the product in each task phase.
Beneficial effect of the present invention：
Analysis method provided by the present invention is according to product riskses requirement and maintainability requirement, with the security mould of product
Risk integrative model is set up based on type, reliability model, maintainability model, and combines statistical method, Monte-Carlo Simulation side
Method obtains influence degree of the Product maintenance to product riskses, and Space Product maintainability analysis validity is improved so as to reach
Purpose.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of method provided by the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention will now be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and examples.
The invention provides a kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven, as shown in figure 1, the tool of this method
Body step is：
S00, the requirement of definition product riskses and maintainability requirement.
Risk require to include the requirement of security Quantitative risk or Quantitative Reliability risk requirement, such as safe probability, task into
Work(probability/reliability etc.；Maintainability is maintainability quantitative target.
S01, network analysis, maintenance task analysis.
Network analysis is carried out to the product of selection, composition, function and the mission profile of the product is determined.The mission profile
For in each task phase, the working condition of the product.To the service action analysis (SAA) carried out needed for product, maintenance mans are specified
Make.
S02, risk integrative modeling.
According to the composition of product, function and mission profile, security model, reliability model and the maintainability of product are set up
Model, using event tree or Event Sequence Diagram, sets up product riskses collective model；It can be known based on FMEA, system dangerous analysis
Other system failure mode and dangerous matter sources, safety and reliability model is set up using fault tree and reliability block diagram etc.；According to production
Product are constituted and maintenance requirements, carry out maintenance task analysis, it is determined that specific maintenance work, sets up maintainability model.Appoint according to product
Business section and work are constituted, and using event tree or Event Sequence Diagram, set up risk integrative model.
S03, maintainability data processing.
Collection analysis and the processing of data are carried out, it is related to maintainability etc. that the data gathered include security, reliability
Design data, test data, like product data, physical model or simulation model data.
The model set up according to step S02 steps, to the data collected, using statistical method, emulation mode
Product maintenance data (mean repair time, maintainability) and product riskses probability are obtained Deng calculating；Conventional statistical method includes
Exponential distribution, normal distribution, logarithm normal distribution etc..
S04, maintainability analysis of uncertainty.
According to the Product maintenance data collected in step S04, the Uncertainty distribution of Product maintenance is obtained, is used
Statistical method, computer emulation method etc. obtain the Uncertainty distribution of product end-state according to risk integrative model.
S05, interpretation of result.
According to Product maintenance data and the uncertain influence degree to risk, analysis product capability of maintenance design result pair
The matching degree of product requirement, takes control measure to reduce influence of the capability of maintenance design to product riskses.
Embodiment is named to further illustrate method provided by the present invention.
For example：For a manned spacecraft air cleaning unit, product includes controller module, adsorption module, blower fan
With ducting module etc..Blower fan sucks air from air inlet, then completes cleaning harmful gas by adsorbent equipment, then will be net
Air after change discharges from outlet.Harmful gas concentration can be caused to rise in the case of plant failure, harmful gas concentration is too high will
Jeopardize spacefarer's life security, concentration value and risk class example are as shown in table 1.
The concentration value of table 1 and risk status example
The risk requirement determined according to system, Probability Of Mission Success should be not less than 0.975, and personal security probability is 0.999,
Mean repair time is 1.8 hours.
Above-mentioned steps S01~02 is carried out, FMEA and maintainability analysis are carried out to product, reliability model and maintenance mould is set up
Type, state sets up risk integrative model based on event tree according to as defined in table 1.
Step S03 is carried out, product reliability is obtained using like product data and progress maintenance task analysis and can reach
0.97, maintenance time obeys exponential distribution, and the MTTR is 1.76 hours.Task is calculated according to risk integrative model
The probability of success 0.9752, personal security probability is 0.9991.
According to the Product maintenance data collected in step S04, the Uncertainty distribution of Product maintenance is obtained, is used
Monte carlo simulation methodology carries out sampling of data, and obtains product riskses probabilistic uncertainty point according to risk integrative model
Cloth, correlated results is as shown in table 2.
The analysis of uncertainty correlated results of table 2
Above-mentioned as shown by data, due to probabilistic influence, at least 30% MTTR can exceed that 1.8 is small
When, at least 30% Probability Of Mission Success is likely lower than 0.975, and at least 30% safe probability is likely lower than 0.999.To the greatest extent
Pipe average time estimate, which is met, to be required, but is considered after uncertainty, can still be possible to be unsatisfactory for product riskses requirement.Therefore need
Capability of maintenance design is further improved, reduces maintenance time.
In summary, presently preferred embodiments of the present invention is these are only, is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention.
Within the spirit and principles of the invention, any modification, equivalent substitution and improvements made etc., should be included in the present invention's
Within protection domain.
Claims (6)
1. a kind of Space Product maintainability analysis method of risk driven, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step 1: defining product riskses requirement and maintainability requirement；Risk requires to include the requirement of security Quantitative risk or reliable
Property Quantitative risk requirement；Maintainability requirement is maintainability quantitative target；
Step 2: carrying out network analysis to the product of selection, composition, function and the mission profile of the product are determined；The task
Section is the working condition of the product in each task phase；
Step 3: according to the composition of product, function and mission profile, setting up security model, reliability model and the dimension of product
Repairing property model, using event tree or Event Sequence Diagram, sets up product riskses collective model；
Step 4: according to product design, experiment and emulation data, carrying out data processing, calculated using statistical method, emulation mode
Obtain Product maintenance data and product riskses probability；
Step 5: the Product maintenance data obtained according to step 4, product is obtained using statistical method, computer emulation method
Maintainability is distributed and corresponding Uncertainty distribution, and uses statistical method, Computer Simulation according to risk integrative model
Method obtains the Uncertainty distribution of product ultimate risk state；
Step 6: according to Product maintenance data and the uncertain influence degree to risk, analysis product maintainability is to product
Risk requirement and the matching degree of maintainability requirement, take control measure to reduce influence of the capability of maintenance design to product riskses.
2. the Space Product maintainability analysis method of a kind of risk driven as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that further
Ground, the mission profile is the working condition of the product in each task phase.
3. the Space Product maintainability analysis method of a kind of risk driven as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that enter
One step, based on FMEA, system dangerous analysis identifying system fault mode and dangerous matter sources in step 3, using fault tree and reliably
Property block diagram sets up safety and reliability model；According to product form and maintenance requirements, maintenance task analysis is carried out, it is determined that specifically
Maintenance work, sets up maintainability model.
4. the Space Product maintainability analysis method of a kind of risk driven as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that enter
One step, described maintainability data include security, reliability these design datas related to maintainability, test data,
Like product data, physical model or simulation model data.
5. the Space Product maintainability analysis method of a kind of risk driven as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that enter
One step, described statistical method includes exponential distribution, normal distribution, logarithm normal distribution.
6. the Space Product maintainability analysis method of a kind of risk driven as claimed in claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that enter
One step, sampling of data is carried out using monte carlo simulation methodology, and product riskses state is obtained according to risk integrative model
Uncertainty distribution.
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108197847A (en) * | 2018-03-22 | 2018-06-22 | 北京电子工程总体研究所 | A kind of analysis system of air missile weapon system Failure risk identifing source |
| CN109376394A (en) * | 2018-09-26 | 2019-02-22 | 中国人民解放军92942部队 | It is a kind of that product Mission Success rate acquisition methods are repaired based on Monte-Carlo Simulation |
| CN111027869A (en) * | 2019-12-14 | 2020-04-17 | 湖南联诚轨道装备有限公司 | Rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration |
| CN112699496A (en) * | 2021-01-08 | 2021-04-23 | 北京空间飞行器总体设计部 | Maintainability design and analysis integrated system for spacecraft |
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| CN1858753A (en) * | 2006-04-18 | 2006-11-08 | 燕山大学 | Simulation technology based on after repair and repair time product effectiveness |
| CN104778370A (en) * | 2015-04-20 | 2015-07-15 | 北京交通大学 | Risk analyzing method based on Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model |
| CN105204371A (en) * | 2015-09-08 | 2015-12-30 | 中国航天标准化研究所 | Analysis method used for space repairable system reliability index |
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2017
- 2017-07-21 CN CN201710599112.7A patent/CN107330528A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN1858753A (en) * | 2006-04-18 | 2006-11-08 | 燕山大学 | Simulation technology based on after repair and repair time product effectiveness |
| CN104778370A (en) * | 2015-04-20 | 2015-07-15 | 北京交通大学 | Risk analyzing method based on Monte-Carlo simulation solution dynamic fault tree model |
| CN105204371A (en) * | 2015-09-08 | 2015-12-30 | 中国航天标准化研究所 | Analysis method used for space repairable system reliability index |
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108197847A (en) * | 2018-03-22 | 2018-06-22 | 北京电子工程总体研究所 | A kind of analysis system of air missile weapon system Failure risk identifing source |
| CN108197847B (en) * | 2018-03-22 | 2022-04-19 | 北京电子工程总体研究所 | Analysis system for recognizing fault hazard source of air-defense missile weapon system |
| CN109376394A (en) * | 2018-09-26 | 2019-02-22 | 中国人民解放军92942部队 | It is a kind of that product Mission Success rate acquisition methods are repaired based on Monte-Carlo Simulation |
| CN111027869A (en) * | 2019-12-14 | 2020-04-17 | 湖南联诚轨道装备有限公司 | Rail transit product reliability analysis method based on safety consideration |
| CN112699496A (en) * | 2021-01-08 | 2021-04-23 | 北京空间飞行器总体设计部 | Maintainability design and analysis integrated system for spacecraft |
| CN112699496B (en) * | 2021-01-08 | 2024-05-03 | 北京空间飞行器总体设计部 | Maintainability design and analysis integrated system for spacecraft |
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