CN107316097A - Charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method and system - Google Patents

Charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method and system Download PDF

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Publication number
CN107316097A
CN107316097A CN201710351396.8A CN201710351396A CN107316097A CN 107316097 A CN107316097 A CN 107316097A CN 201710351396 A CN201710351396 A CN 201710351396A CN 107316097 A CN107316097 A CN 107316097A
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金崇奎
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NIO Holding Co Ltd
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NIO Nextev Ltd
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    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06QINFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract

The present invention relates to a kind of charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method, including:For each electric automobile in monitored area, its battery electric quantity, the estimated down time in current location are determined respectively, and its probability charged in current time is determined according to historical data;The charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is calculated respectively, and the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.This method can substantially shorten the response time of user's charge request, alleviate the surge pressure of system, so as to provide good Consumer's Experience.

Description

Charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method and system
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric vehicle engineering field, more specifically to a kind of charging electric vehicle requirement forecasting side Method and system.
Background technology
Electric automobile has been gradually gained popularity, it is adaptable to which the charging service of electric automobile is that those skilled in the art's emphasis is closed Note.
In existing charging service, placed an order in user after (request charging), system passively dispatch service personnel Or service vehicle goes to provide power-up service, this mode be present:
First, the response time of all services can not be ensured, when attendant is distant from user's vehicle, service can be caused Response time it is elongated.
2nd, there is surge pressure in system call, in some periods, and possible order compares concentration, so as to influence system entirety Efficiency of operation;
3rd, same user may place an order in different time sections but obtains various criterion (for example, significant difference of response time) Service, so as to influence Consumer's Experience.
In addition, for this service mode of movable charging vehicle, if driver (attendant) does not know next service Order is where, he just do not know charging vehicle leave for where, be parked in where, and can only passively waiting system dispatch so that Charging resource can not make full use of.
Therefore, in view of drawbacks described above, those skilled in the art need a kind of scheme, predict user's on one's own initiative by system Potential charge requirement, so that early response user's charge request.
The content of the invention
The technical purpose of the present invention is to provide a kind of charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method, to early response The charge request of user.
To achieve the above object, a kind of technical scheme of present invention offer is as follows:
A kind of charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method, comprises the following steps:A), for each electronic vapour in monitored area Car, determines its battery electric quantity, the estimated down time in current location respectively, and determines it when current according to historical data Between the probability that is charged;B) the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile, is calculated respectively, and to the charge requirement of each electric automobile Probability is ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle;Wherein, charge requirement probability is electric automobile at least first The conditional probability charged when part is met.
Preferably, this method also includes:C), each potential Rechargeable vehicle carries out charging institute in respective service point in estimation list The projected service time needed;D), with each potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated.
Preferably, in step b), charge requirement probability is that electric automobile is satisfied by first condition and second condition The conditional probability of Shi Jinhang chargings, wherein, first condition is less than first threshold, Article 2 for the current battery charge of electric automobile Part is estimated down time of the electric automobile in current location to exceed Second Threshold.
Preferably, charge requirement probability is calculated according to Bayes law using equation below:P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D), wherein, the probability that a certain electric automobile is charged in corresponding current time in P (C) expression historical datas, P (S | D) Represent historical data in the electric automobile when being charged its corresponding current battery charge less than first threshold probability, P (T | D the electric automobile probability of its corresponding down time more than Second Threshold when being charged in historical data) is represented.
Preferably, first threshold is the average value of corresponding battery electric quantity when each electric automobile is charged, and Second Threshold is The average value of each electric automobile corresponding down time when being charged.
Preferably, in step d), if the projected service time meets service standard, active warning user charging;If pre- Meter service time can not meet service standard, then are informed into user the projected service time, and wait user in very first time window Instruction, and based on indicate come dispatch service personnel or service vehicle response send instruction potential Rechargeable vehicle charging please Ask.
Preferably, in step d), according to the sequence of the charge requirement probability of each potential Rechargeable vehicle, it is preferential and actively with The high potential Rechargeable vehicle of charge requirement probability is communicated.
Preferably, in addition to step e):If potential Rechargeable vehicle is by communication without receiving charging service, or potential charging Automobile has completed charging service, then some Rechargeable vehicles of charge requirement probability highest in monitored area is added into potential charging The list of automobile, and return to step c) and continue executing with.
Invention additionally discloses a kind of charging electric vehicle demand forecast system, including:Area monitoring module, for monitoring section Each electric automobile in domain, determines its battery electric quantity, the estimated down time in current location respectively, and true according to historical data The fixed probability that it is charged in current time;Probability evaluation entity, the charge requirement for calculating each electric automobile respectively is general Rate, and the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.
It is each electronic in the charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method that various embodiments of the present invention are provided, active predicting monitored area The charge requirement probability of automobile, and then communicated with each potential Rechargeable vehicle, asked through user, not even etc. user's request and Forward scheduling is serviced, and this scheduling mode can substantially shorten the response time of user's charge request, alleviates the surge pressure of system, So as to provide good Consumer's Experience.
In addition, charging electric vehicle demand forecast system can predict that the potential charging of electric automobile (user) is needed on one's own initiative Ask, and then can be with early response user's charge request, the system operating efficiency is higher, it is possible to prevente effectively from surge pressure, is adapted to Promoted in large- and-medium size cities.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 shows the schematic flow sheet for the charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method that first embodiment of the invention is provided.
Fig. 2 shows the modular structure signal for the charging electric vehicle demand forecast system that second embodiment of the invention is provided Figure.
Embodiment
As shown in figure 1, first embodiment of the invention provides a kind of charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method, it includes as follows Multiple steps.
Step S10, the battery electric quantity of each electric automobile in monitored area, estimated down time are determined respectively and current The probability that time is charged.
Specifically, first, traveling or parked, all registered electric automobiles in monitored area are monitored, obtained Take the battery electric quantity of each electric automobile, estimated down time;Then, determine each electric automobile in current time according to historical data The probability charged.
Wherein, battery electric quantity can be characterized using SOC parameter, it is contemplated that down time can be counted according to historical data Analyze and obtain, can also voluntarily be provided by user.For any electric automobile, historgraphic data recording, for example, history Upper certain day electric automobile in monitored area the down time of each service point, whether the information such as charge., can according to historical data To calculate the probability for determining that electric automobile is charged in current time.
Step S12, the charge requirement probability for calculating each electric automobile, and be ranked up to form the row of potential Rechargeable vehicle Table.
Specifically, in step S12, the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile in monitor area is calculated respectively, and it is right The charge requirement probability of each electric automobile carries out descending sort to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.
Wherein, charge requirement probability is a kind of conditional probability, for example, entering for electric automobile when at least first condition is met The conditional probability of row charging.The current battery charge that first condition can be expressed as electric automobile is less than first threshold.
Under preferable case, charge requirement probability is that electric automobile is filled when first condition and second condition are satisfied by The conditional probability of electricity.Wherein, first condition can be expressed as the current battery charge of electric automobile less than first threshold, Article 2 Part can be expressed as estimated down time of the electric automobile in current location more than Second Threshold.
Charge requirement probability can be calculated as a kind of conditional probability according to Bayes' theorem, and its calculation formula is P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D), wherein, P (C) represents that a certain electric automobile is carried out in corresponding current time in historical data The probability of charging, P (S | D) represents in historical data that the electric automobile its corresponding current battery charge when being charged is less than the The probability of one threshold value (that is, meeting first condition), and P (T | D) represent the electric automobile its phase when being charged in historical data The probability of Second Threshold (that is, meeting second condition) should be exceeded down time.
Below only as a kind of example:If the current SoC of electric automobile is St, it is contemplated that down time is Te, SaIt is from history The respective battery electricity SoC of each electric automobile average value, T during the charging drawn in charging service recordaIt is from history charging The average value of the corresponding down time of each electric automobile during the charging drawn in service log, then charge requirement probability can be by such as Under type is calculated:
If 1) St<=SaAnd Te<=Ta, then P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * (1-P (T | D));
If 2) St<=SaAnd Te>Ta, then P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D);
If 3) St>SaAnd Te<=Ta, then P (D)=P (C) * (1-P (S | D)) * (1-P (T | D));
If 4) St>SaAnd Te>Ta, then P (D)=P (C) * (1-P (S | D)) * P (T | D).
After the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is tried to achieve, or, descending sort is carried out to them, and need to charge N electric automobile of probability highest is asked to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle, or, a certain threshold is more than with charge requirement probability N electric automobile of value forms the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.
Improved as one kind to above-described embodiment, charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method can further comprise following step Suddenly:
Each potential Rechargeable vehicle is in the projected service needed for respective service point is charged in step S14, estimation list Between.
Specifically, the list based on the step S12 potential Rechargeable vehicles generated, estimates each potential charging in step S14 Projected service time of the automobile needed for respective service point is charged.
Wherein, described respective service point can be the current location of each potential Rechargeable vehicle or the clothes away from its nearest neighbours Business point position or system for its dispatching distribution service point position or be suitable for carrying out other suitable positions of charging service.It is expected that Time that service time can be the potential Rechargeable vehicle needed for fully charged or needed for charging to user's Expected energy when Between or charging interval for specifying of user.
As an example, the projected service time can represent that attendant or service vehicle respond the charging of potential Rechargeable vehicle Request is until the potential Rechargeable vehicle completes to charge and be back to the duration of user.
Step S16, with potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated.
Any electric automobile in the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle is likely to selection and requires charging or without charging, in view of This, based on the projected service time obtained in step S14, in step s 16, whether system is with potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to implementing to fill Electricity service is communicated, if user requires charging service, dispatch service personnel or service vehicle are gone to and are suitable for carrying out by system The service point of charging service, can also indicate that the potential Rechargeable vehicle goes to the service point.
During communication, according to the current electric quantity of Rechargeable vehicle, and it is expected that down time, system can also be to user Propose the recommendation of different stage.In the case of appropriate (such as the electricity of Rechargeable vehicle is in an emergency), system will be adjusted while communication Degree attendant or service vehicle go to the service point for being suitable for carrying out charging service, please to following charging of early response user Ask.
As another improvement embodiment, in communication process, if the projected service time from step S14 meets certain One service standard (for example, the very first time needed for attendant responds the charge request of potential Rechargeable vehicle is less than 15 minutes), Then inform that user etc. is (also can be simultaneously electric automobile distribution service point to be charged) to be charged;If the projected service time can not expire Sufficient service standard (that is, the above-mentioned very first time exceeds 15 minutes), then inform use by the projected service time (or above-mentioned very first time) Family, and wait the instruction of user in the very first time window (such as 5 minutes durations), and based on indicating come dispatch service personnel or Service vehicle response sends the charge request of the potential Rechargeable vehicle of instruction.
As preferred embodiment, according to the sequence of the charge requirement probability of each potential Rechargeable vehicle, preferential and active High potential Rechargeable vehicle is communicated with charge requirement probability, responds to anticipation and as early as possible the charge request of user, so that Good Consumer's Experience is provided.
As the further improvement to above-mentioned first embodiment, charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method is additionally included in step The following steps are performed after S16:If potential Rechargeable vehicle is by communication without receiving charging service, or potential Rechargeable vehicle is complete Into charging service, then some Rechargeable vehicles of charge requirement probability highest in monitored area are added to the row of potential Rechargeable vehicle Table, and return to step S14 and continue executing with.
The charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method that above-mentioned first embodiment is provided, not according to the charging order of user Dispatch service, but in active predicting monitored area each electric automobile charge requirement probability, to form potential Rechargeable vehicle List, and then communicated with each potential Rechargeable vehicle, is asked, user's request and the forward scheduling service such as not even through user, This scheduling mode can substantially shorten the response time of user's charge request, alleviate the surge pressure of system, so as to provide good Consumer's Experience.
It is contemplated that, according to the charge requirement probability obtained by the calculating of above-mentioned first embodiment, it is contemplated that the history choosing of user Select, the factor such as the current electric quantity of long-term habits and electric automobile so that this conditional probability is more fitted, user is about whether please Seek the actual selection of charging.The potential Rechargeable vehicle list generated based on the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile, is more suitable for A series of current electric vehicles for expecting charging are characterized, therefore, this charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method is conducive into one Step shortens the response time of user's charge request, improves the efficiency of charging service system.
Second embodiment of the invention provides a kind of charging electric vehicle demand forecast system, and it includes area monitoring module 201st, probability evaluation entity 203, estimated module 205 of optional time and optional user's communication module 207.
Wherein, area monitoring module 201 determines its battery electric quantity, worked as respectively for each electric automobile in monitored area The estimated down time of front position, and its probability charged in current time further determined according to historical data.
Probability evaluation entity 203 is coupled with region detection module 201, and it calculates the charge requirement of each electric automobile respectively Probability, and the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.Wherein, charging is needed It is the conditional probability that electric automobile is charged when at least first condition is met to seek probability, and first condition can be expressed as electronic The current battery charge of automobile is less than first threshold.
As an improvement embodiment, probability evaluation entity 203 calculates electric automobile in first condition and Article 2 The conditional probability charged when part is satisfied by, the charge requirement probability using the conditional probability as electric automobile;Wherein, first Condition is less than first threshold for the current battery charge of electric automobile, and second condition is that electric automobile stops in the estimated of current location The car time exceedes Second Threshold.
Time estimated module 205, user communication module 207 can be coupled in above-described embodiment as add-on module.
Time, estimated module 205 was coupled with probability evaluation entity 203, for estimating that each potential Rechargeable vehicle exists in list Respective service point charged needed for the projected service time.
User communication module 207 is coupled with time estimated module, and whether it is with each potential Rechargeable vehicle (user) with regard to real Charging service is applied to be communicated.
The charging electric vehicle demand forecast system that above-mentioned second embodiment is provided, predicts electric automobile (user) on one's own initiative Potential charge requirement, and then can there is provided good Consumer's Experience with early response user charge request.It is based on this pre- Survey (anticipation), the system operating efficiency is higher, it is possible to prevente effectively from surge pressure, is adapted to promote in large- and-medium size cities.
It should be noted that above-mentioned charge requirement Forecasting Methodology can be realized with computer program, it is thus possible in advance Material, the embodiment party of the present invention all should be covered by by being related to the computer system of this computer program, computer-readable recording medium In case.
As an example, the present invention also provides a kind of computer system, it includes memory, processor and is stored in memory Computer program that is upper and being run by processor, wherein, realize the following steps during computing device computer program:
S21, for each electric automobile in monitored area, its battery electric quantity, the estimated parking in current location are determined respectively Time, and its probability charged in current time is determined according to historical data.
S23, the charge requirement probability for calculating each electric automobile respectively, and the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is carried out Sort to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.Wherein, charge requirement probability is electric automobile when at least first condition is met The conditional probability charged.
As a further improvement, in above computer system, can also further be realized during computing device computer program The following steps:
Each potential Rechargeable vehicle is in the projected service needed for respective service point is charged in S25, estimation gained list Between.
S27, with each potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated respectively.
In above-mentioned example, charge requirement probability is that electric automobile is filled when first condition and second condition are satisfied by The conditional probability of electricity, wherein, first condition is less than first threshold for the current battery charge of electric automobile, and second condition is electronic Estimated down time of the automobile in current location exceedes Second Threshold.
Under preferable case, charge requirement probability is calculated according to Bayes law using equation below:P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D), wherein, P (C) represents the probability that a certain electric automobile is charged in corresponding current time in historical data, P (S | D) represent historical data in the electric automobile when being charged its corresponding current battery charge less than first threshold probability, P (T | D) represent the electric automobile probability of its corresponding down time more than Second Threshold when being charged in historical data.
Further, the various improvement projects for the charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method that above-mentioned first embodiment is provided Can by processor perform memory on computer program when implement.
As another example, the present invention provides a kind of computer-readable recording medium, is stored thereon with computer program, its In, computer program realizes the following steps when being executed by processor:
S31, for each electric automobile in monitored area, its battery electric quantity, the estimated parking in current location are determined respectively Time, and its probability charged in current time is determined according to historical data.
S33, the charge requirement probability for calculating each electric automobile respectively, and the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile is carried out Sort to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle.Wherein, charge requirement probability is electric automobile when at least first condition is met The conditional probability charged.
As a further improvement, the computer program stored on the readable storage medium storing program for executing when executed can also be further real Existing the following steps:
Each potential Rechargeable vehicle is in the projected service needed for respective service point is charged in S35, estimation gained list Between.
S37, with each potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated respectively.
In above-mentioned example, similarly, charge requirement probability is that electric automobile is satisfied by first condition and second condition The conditional probability of Shi Jinhang chargings, wherein, first condition is less than first threshold, Article 2 for the current battery charge of electric automobile Part is estimated down time of the electric automobile in current location to exceed Second Threshold.
Under preferable case, charge requirement probability is calculated according to Bayes law using equation below:P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D), wherein, P (C) represents the probability that a certain electric automobile is charged in corresponding current time in historical data, P (S | D) represent historical data in the electric automobile when being charged its corresponding current battery charge less than first threshold probability, P (T | D) represent the electric automobile probability of its corresponding down time more than Second Threshold when being charged in historical data.
Further, the various improvement projects for the charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method that above-mentioned first embodiment is provided Can by processor perform storage medium on computer program when implement.
Described above is not lain in and limited the scope of the invention only in the preferred embodiments of the present invention.Ability Field technique personnel can make various modifications design, without departing from the thought and subsidiary claim of the present invention.

Claims (14)

1. a kind of charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method, comprises the following steps:
A), for each electric automobile in monitored area, its battery electric quantity, the estimated down time in current location are determined respectively, And its probability charged in current time is determined according to historical data;And
B) the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile, is calculated respectively, and to the charge requirement probability of each electric automobile It is ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle;Wherein, the charge requirement probability is the electric automobile at least the The conditional probability that one condition is charged when meeting.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that methods described also includes:
C), estimate that each potential Rechargeable vehicle is in the projected service needed for respective service point is charged in the list Between;And
D), with each potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated.
3. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that in the step b), the charge requirement probability is institute The conditional probability that electric automobile is charged when the first condition and second condition are satisfied by is stated, wherein, described first Condition is less than first threshold for the current battery charge of the electric automobile, and the second condition is the electric automobile described The estimated down time of current location exceedes Second Threshold.
4. method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the charge requirement probability is according to Bayes law using such as Lower formula is calculated:
P (D)=P (C) * P (S | D) * P (T | D), wherein, P (C) represents that a certain electric automobile should in phase in historical data The probability that the preceding time is charged, and P (S | D) represent the electric automobile its corresponding present battery when being charged in historical data Electricity is less than the probability of the first threshold, P (T | D) represent in historical data the electric automobile when being charged its accordingly stop The car time exceedes the probability of the Second Threshold.
5. method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that the first threshold is that each electric automobile carries out charging phase The average value of battery electric quantity is answered, the Second Threshold is the average value of corresponding down time when each electric automobile is charged.
6. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in the step c), the projected service time represents Attendant or service vehicle respond the charge request of the potential Rechargeable vehicle until the potential Rechargeable vehicle completes charging And it is back to the duration of user.
7. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in the step d), if the projected service time is full Sufficient service standard, then active warning user charging;, will be described if the projected service time can not meet the service standard The projected service time informs user, and waits in the very first time window instruction of user, and based on the instruction to dispatch State attendant or service vehicle responds the charge request for the potential Rechargeable vehicle for sending the instruction.
8. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in the step d), according to each potential charging vapour The sequence of the charge requirement probability of car, the preferential and potential Rechargeable vehicle actively high with the charge requirement probability enters Row communication.
9. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that also including step e):
If the potential Rechargeable vehicle passes through communication without receiving charging service, or the potential Rechargeable vehicle has completed charging clothes Business, then add the potential Rechargeable vehicle by some Rechargeable vehicles of the charge requirement probability highest in the monitored area List, and return to the step c) and continue executing with.
10. a kind of charging electric vehicle demand forecast system, including:
Area monitoring module, for each electric automobile in monitored area, determines its battery electric quantity, in the estimated of current location respectively Down time, and its probability charged in current time is determined according to historical data;And
Probability evaluation entity, the charge requirement probability for calculating each electric automobile respectively, and to each electric automobile Charge requirement probability be ranked up to form the list of potential Rechargeable vehicle;Wherein, the charge requirement probability is the electricity The conditional probability that electrical automobile is charged when at least first condition is met.
11. system according to claim 10, it is characterised in that the system also includes:
Time estimated module, for estimating that each potential Rechargeable vehicle is needed for respective service point is charged in the list The projected service time;And
User communication module, with each potential Rechargeable vehicle with regard to whether implementing charging service and being communicated.
12. system according to claim 10, it is characterised in that the probability evaluation entity calculates the electric automobile and existed The conditional probability that the first condition and second condition are charged when being satisfied by as the electric automobile charge requirement Probability, wherein, the first condition is less than first threshold for the current battery charge of the electric automobile, and the second condition is Estimated down time of the electric automobile in the current location exceedes Second Threshold.
13. a kind of computer system, including memory, processor and it is stored on the memory and is run by the processor Computer program, it is characterised in that described in the computing device during computer program, any one of claim 1 to 9 institute The method stated is performed.
14. a kind of computer-readable recording medium, is stored thereon with computer program, it is characterised in that the computer program When being executed by processor, the method any one of claim 1 to 9 is performed.
CN201710351396.8A 2017-05-18 2017-05-18 Charging electric vehicle needing forecasting method and system Pending CN107316097A (en)

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PCT/CN2017/094511 WO2018209810A1 (en) 2017-05-18 2017-07-26 Method and system for predicting charging requirements of electric vehicles

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WO2019105065A1 (en) * 2017-11-28 2019-06-06 蔚来汽车有限公司 Electronic map based charging request initiating time prediction method and device
CN111967698A (en) * 2020-10-23 2020-11-20 北京国新智电新能源科技有限责任公司 Electric automobile charging system and device based on mobile charging pile scheduling
CN114368319A (en) * 2020-10-15 2022-04-19 丰田自动车株式会社 Server, mobile system, and storage medium

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