CN107292754A - A kind of drilling risk forecasting system - Google Patents
A kind of drilling risk forecasting system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
A kind of drilling risk forecasting system, it includes：Initial data acquisition module, it is used for the measured data for obtaining drilling well to be analyzed；Characteristic vector determining module, it is used to handle the measured data that the transmission of initial data acquisition module comes, and obtains the characteristic vector of measured data；Degree of association coefficient determination module, it is connected with characteristic vector determining module, and for the characteristic vector according to measured data and default drilling risk judgment matrix, the degree of association coefficient of each element and each fault type of the characteristic vector of measured data is calculated respectively；Risk profile module, it is connected with interconnected system determining module, for calculating measured data and the degree of association of each fault type according to degree of association coefficient, and judges that drilling well to be analyzed whether there is risk according to the degree of association.The system can carry out the prediction of drilling risk, Real time identification drilling risk and early warning in drilling course to any position of full well section, help construction technical staff control drilling risk.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to oil-gas exploration and development technical field, specifically, it is related to a kind of drilling risk prediction system
System.
Background technology
Drilling risk prediction refers to the method certain according to drillng operation data application to present in drillng operation
Risk is predicted, to reach the purpose of prevention and control.Drillng operation has sufficiently complex flow, its mistake
There is the influence of many uncertain factors in journey.Therefore, it is pre- to the influence factor progress risk in drilling process
Survey just particularly significant, effectively predict the outcome to have for situ of drilling well operation and great know meaning.
Carrying out the method for drilling risk prediction at present mainly includes the method such as neural network and reasoning by cases method,
Being limited in that for these methods needs substantial amounts of offset well data.And the offset well data for new block is less,
This also allows for these methods and is difficult to play a role in drilling risk prediction.Meanwhile, even in possessing offset well case
In the case of example sample, the size of sample size also determines the drilling risk prediction accuracy of these methods.Also
It is to say, in the case of historical sample amount is less, the degree of accuracy of these existing drilling risk Forecasting Methodologies is also handed over
Bottom, it is impossible to meet the requirement of actual production.
The content of the invention
To solve the above problems, the invention provides a kind of drilling risk forecasting system, the system includes：
Initial data acquisition module, it is used for the measured data for obtaining drilling well to be analyzed, and the measured data is included
The initial data of multiple affecting parameters；
Characteristic vector determining module, it is connected with the initial data acquisition module, for the initial data
The measured data that acquisition module transmission comes is handled, and obtains the characteristic vector of the measured data；
Degree of association coefficient determination module, it is connected with the characteristic vector determining module, for according to the actual measurement
The characteristic vector of data and default drilling risk judgment matrix, calculate the characteristic vector of the measured data respectively
The degree of association coefficient of each element and each fault type；
Risk profile module, it is connected with the interconnected system determining module, for according to the degree of association coefficient
The degree of association of the measured data and each fault type is calculated, and judges described to be analyzed according to the degree of association
Drilling well whether there is risk.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the characteristic vector determining module is configured to first according to the actual measurement
Data, calculate the variable quantity of each affecting parameters respectively, then according to the variable quantity of each affecting parameters, it is determined that
The characteristic vector of the measured data.
According to one embodiment of present invention, when calculating the variable quantity of each affecting parameters, the characteristic vector is true
Cover half block is configured to calculate the average value of each affecting parameters first, is then averaged according to each affecting parameters with it
The difference of value determines the variable quantity of each affecting parameters.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the variable quantity of affecting parameters includes：
Change in torque amount, total pond body product net change amount, difference in flow, hook carry variable quantity, drilling tool bore hole quiescent time,
The pressure of the drill variable quantity, mechanical specific energy values and underground circulation equal yield density.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the characteristic vector determining module is configured to calculating the moment of torsion change
During change amount, real-time moment of torsion is standardized as moment of torsion of the pre-set dimension drill bit under predetermined depth first, so as to obtain
Standard torque, and the change in torque amount is calculated according to the standard torque.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the degree of association coefficient determination module is configured to calculate institute respectively first
State the characteristic vector of measured data and the worst error value and minimal error of default drilling risk criterion matrix
Value, then according to the worst error value and minimum error values, calculates each in the characteristic vector of the measured data
The degree of association coefficient of individual element and each fault type.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the degree of association coefficient determination module is configured to according to following expression
Calculate the degree of association coefficient of each element and each fault type in the characteristic vector of the measured data：
Wherein, ξ ijRepresent j-th of element y in the characteristic vector of measured datajFor the association of the i-th class failure
Coefficient is spent, m represents the sum of fault type, and n represents the element number that the characteristic vector of every kind of failure is included,
δmaxAnd δminRepresent that the characteristic vector of measured data is missed with the maximum of default drilling risk criterion matrix respectively
Difference and minimum error values, ρ represent resolution ratio, xijRepresent the i-th row in default drilling risk criterion matrix
The element of jth row.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the incidence coefficient determining module is configured to according to following expression meter
Calculate the characteristic vector of measured data and the worst error value and minimal error of default drilling risk criterion matrix
Value：
Wherein, δmaxAnd δminThe characteristic vector and default drilling risk criterion square of measured data are represented respectively
The worst error value and minimum error values of battle array, yjRepresent j-th of element in the characteristic vector of measured data, xij
Represent the element that the i-th row jth is arranged in default drilling risk criterion matrix.
According to one embodiment of present invention, the risk profile module is configured to calculate institute according to following expression
State the drilling risk degree of association of each affecting parameters：
Wherein, riRepresent the degree of association of measured data and the i-th class failure, ωjRepresent the characteristic vector of measured data
In j-th of element be directed to the i-th class failure weight, ξijRepresent j-th yuan in the characteristic vector of measured data
Element is directed to the degree of association coefficient of the i-th class failure, and m represents the sum of fault type, and n represents the spy of every kind of failure
Levy the element number that vector is included.
The present invention devises a kind of new system of the drilling risk prediction associated based on improved grey model, and the system is utilized
Real-time logging data, with reference to parameters such as drill string size, borehole size, property of drilling fluid, between the regular hour
(its risk that can be predicted includes the risk association degree size each put along along well track every calculating：Drill bit loses
Effect, drillling tool twisting off, leakage, well kick is hampered and blocked and drilling string not well braked etc.), to any position of full well section in drilling course
The prediction for carrying out drilling risk, Real time identification drilling risk and early warning are put, construction technical staff control drilling well is helped
Risk.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will be illustrated in the following description, also, partly from specification
In become apparent, or by implement the present invention and understand.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages can pass through
Specifically noted structure is realized and obtained in specification, claims and accompanying drawing.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment
Or the accompanying drawing required in description of the prior art does simple introduction：
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of drilling risk forecasting system according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the flow chart of drilling risk prediction according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart of determination characteristic vector according to an embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 4 is the flow chart of determination degree of association coefficient according to an embodiment of the invention.
Embodiment
Describe embodiments of the present invention in detail below with reference to drawings and Examples, whereby to the present invention such as
What application technology means solves technical problem, and reaches the implementation process of technique effect and can fully understand and evidence
To implement.As long as it should be noted that do not constitute conflict, each embodiment in the present invention and each implementing
Example in each feature can be combined with each other, the technical scheme formed protection scope of the present invention it
It is interior.
Meanwhile, in the following description, many details are elaborated for illustrative purposes, to provide to this
The thorough understanding of inventive embodiments.It will be apparent, however, to one skilled in the art, that this hair
It is bright to implement without detail here or described ad hoc fashion.
In addition, the step of the flow of accompanying drawing is illustrated can such as one group computer executable instructions meter
Performed in calculation machine system, and, although logical order is shown in flow charts, but in some situations
Under, can be with the step shown or described by being performed different from order herein.
For problems of the prior art, the invention provides a kind of drilling risk based on grey correlation is pre-
Examining system, the system is based on improved Grey Relation Algorithm, and risk profile is carried out to full well section in drilling process,
The degree of association for obtaining embodying various risks with this.By the degree of association, workmen can be in wellbore construction process
In recognize all kinds of drilling risks in time and take countermeasure, so as to avoid the hair of drilling risk to greatest extent
It is raw.
Fig. 1 shows the structural representation for the drilling risk forecasting system that the present embodiment is provided.
As shown in figure 1, the drilling risk forecasting system that the present embodiment is provided includes：Initial data acquisition module
101st, characteristic vector determining module 102, degree of association coefficient determination module 103 and risk profile module 104.
Wherein, initial data acquisition module 101 is used for the measured data for obtaining drilling well to be analyzed.It is former in the present embodiment
Measured data accessed by beginning data acquisition module 101 includes the initial data of multiple affecting parameters.
Characteristic vector determining module 102 is connected with initial data acquisition module 101, and it can be obtained to initial data
The initial data that the transmission of modulus block 101 comes is handled, so as to obtain the characteristic vector of measured data.Obtaining
After the characteristic vector of measured data, obtained characteristic vector can be transferred to therewith by characteristic vector determining module 102
Connected degree of association coefficient determination module 103, with by degree of association coefficient determination module 103 is according to measured data
Characteristic vector and default drilling risk judgment matrix, respectively calculate measured data characteristic vector each element
With the degree of association coefficient of each fault type.
Risk profile module 104 is connected with interconnected system determining module 103, for being calculated according to degree of association coefficient
Measured data and the degree of association of each fault type, and judge that drilling well to be analyzed whether there is wind according to the degree of association
Danger.
Fig. 2 shows the workflow diagram for the drilling risk forecasting system that the present embodiment is provided.
As shown in Fig. 2 when carrying out drilling risk prediction, first by initial data acquisition module 101 in actual measurement
The measured data for treating drilling well to be analyzed is obtained in data acquisition step S201.In the present embodiment, initial data is obtained
Accessed measured data includes the initial data of multiple affecting parameters to modulus block 101 in step s 201.
By the analysis to existing drilling risk Forecasting Methodology, existing drilling risk Forecasting Methodology is in risk profile mistake
The foundation of standard failure pattern used in journey is limited only to the change of logging data, and it does not consider drilling fluid
Influence to drilling tool, while also not considering the influence of bit size and well depth to moment of torsion.
In the present embodiment, the accessed measured data institute in step s 201 of initial data acquisition module 101
Comprising multiple affecting parameters preferably include：Moment of torsion, total pond body product, flow, hook are carried, drilling tool bore hole is static
(Equivalent Circulating Dedsity are referred to as time, the pressure of the drill, mechanical ratio and circulation equal yield density
ECD).Wherein, during the initial data of above-mentioned affecting parameters is obtained, real-time well logging number is obtained first
According to it is middle collection relevant parameter (including well depth, moment of torsion, inlet flow rate, rate of discharge, total pond body product, the pressure of the drill,
Hook load, standpipe pressure, when boring and rotating speed etc.), followed by the property of drilling fluid at scene, drill set
Close and the data such as drill bit obtain the initial data of above-mentioned affecting parameters.
In the present embodiment, predicting final for the parameters such as drilling tool and drilling well can be reflected by parameter ECD
As a result influence.Meanwhile, drilling fluid can also be reflected to the influence finally predicted the outcome by buoyant weight, be floated
It is buoyancy of the drilling fluid to drilling tool again.
And the influence of bit size and well depth to moment of torsion can then be embodied by standard torque, the present embodiment
In, real-time torque value will be standardized as to the moment of torsion of 8-1/2 " 1000 meters of well depths of drill bit.
There is the abnormal generation for being all likely to result in risk in the link of any one in drilling well, it is therefore desirable to consider brill
In various factors in well, such as drilling fluid, drilling tool, drill bit, drilling process drilling parameter (including moment of torsion,
The pressure of the drill etc.).Exception, which occurs, in a certain factor may cause the generation of risk, therefore the various influence ginsengs of comprehensive analysis
Number, when the change of a certain or multiple parameters exceedes respective doors limit value, judges according to the grey correlation theory model of foundation
Go out respective risk, drilling risk is predicted and analyzed in real time, scene is instructed.
In the present embodiment, initial data acquisition module 101 can be realized using equipment such as comprehensive logging instruments.When
So, in other embodiments of the invention, initial data acquisition module 101 can also be using other rational dresses
Put or equipment is realized, the invention is not restricted to this.
Initial data acquisition module 101 transmits measured data after the measured data of drilling well to be analyzed is got
To characteristic vector determining module 102.Characteristic vector determining module 102 can be in step S202 to measured data
In initial data handled, so as to obtain the characteristic vector of measured data.In the present embodiment, characteristic vector
Each element in the characteristic vector of the measured data resulting in step S202 of determining module 102 being capable of table
Levy the variable quantity size of correspondence affecting parameters.
Specifically, as shown in figure 3, characteristic vector determining module 102 is it is determined that the characteristic vector of measured data
During, according to the initial data of each affecting parameters first in step S301, each influence is calculated respectively
The variable quantity of parameter, then determines measured data according to the variable quantity of each affecting parameters in step s 302
Characteristic vector.
Wherein, during the variable quantity of a certain affecting parameters is calculated, the affecting parameters are measured first a certain
Initial data in preset duration, so as to obtain multiple sampled values of the affecting parameters in the preset duration.With
Average value processing is carried out to these sampled values afterwards, so as to obtain average value of the affecting parameters in preset duration.
Finally by the sampled value and the difference of above-mentioned average value for calculating the moment affecting parameters to be analyzed, you can be somebody's turn to do
The variable quantity of affecting parameters.
It is pointed out that the present embodiment calculates the process of the variable quantity of each affecting parameters in step S301
It is similar, therefore the process no longer to the variable quantity of each affecting parameters is repeated herein.
It is also desirable to which, it is noted that in other embodiments of the invention, other reasonable sides can also be passed through
Formula calculates the variable quantity of each affecting parameters, and the invention is not restricted to this.For example in one embodiment of the present of invention
In, each affecting parameters can be calculated using modes such as mean filter, consecutive means flat in preset duration
Average, can also determine each shadow by calculating variance of each affecting parameters in preset duration or standard deviation
Ring the variable quantity of parameter.
In the present embodiment, in order to reduce the influence of bit size and well depth value to torque value, become in calculated torque
During change amount, real-time moment of torsion is standardized as moment of torsion of the pre-set dimension drill bit under predetermined depth first, so as to obtain
Standard torque, and according to standard torque come the average value of calculated torque and change in torque amount.Specifically, this reality
Apply the moment of torsion that moment of torsion is preferably standardized as to 8-1/2 " 1000 meters of well depths of drill bit in example.Certainly, according to actual need
Will, in other embodiments of the invention, moment of torsion can also be standardized as other reasonable bit sizes and/or
The moment of torsion of well depth, the invention is not restricted to this.
During total pond body product net change amount is calculated, total pond body is calculated first with real-time total pond body product
Product variable quantity, drill string volume change in well is calculated using drill string volume in well, and well is calculated using well depth change
Eye deepens the total pond body product reduced, then calculates the arithmetic sum of above-mentioned three.And the arithmetic sum of above-mentioned three is
For the net change amount due to total pond body product caused by artificial increase and decrease mud, well kick, leakage.In the present embodiment,
It is used for judging well kick, leakage accident using total pond body product net change amount.
Involved flow difference is the difference of rate of discharge and inlet flow rate in the present embodiment, wherein, difference in flow
Value can be used in characterizing well kick or leakage accident.Hook, which carries variable quantity and can be used in sign, to be hampered card accident, its
It can be obtained using hook load, the pressure of the drill, the mathematic interpolation of buoyant weight.Drilling tool bore hole quiescent time can be used in
Lock of tool drilling is characterized, it can be determined by measuring drilling tool in Luo Yanchong quiescent time.The pressure of the drill variable quantity
It can be used for characterizing in drilling string not well braked accident, the present embodiment, pass through the pressure of the drill variable quantity and hook position and bit diameter
Difference is used as the Main Basiss for judging whether to occur drilling string not well braked accident.
Mechanical specific energy values are represented in the mechanical energy needed for unit interval fragmentation volume rock, the present embodiment, mechanical ratio
Energy value can be calculated according to following expression and obtained：
Wherein, MSE represents mechanical specific energy values, and WOB represents the pressure of the drill, and Dia represents shaft bottom diameter, RPM table
Show rotary rpm, TOB represents torque-on-bit, and ROP represents rate of penetration.
In the present embodiment, during circulation equal yield density ECD is calculated, first according to casing programme, well
Eye track, drilling tool structure, mud property, drilling technical parameter for gathering in real time etc. calculate drill string internal pressure in real time
The downhole hydraulic parameter such as consumption, bit pressuredrop, annular pressure lost, then integrates ground and measures in real time on this basis
Relevant parameter, COMPREHENSIVE CALCULATING determines underground ECD values.Certainly, in other embodiments of the invention, also
Underground ECD values can be determined by other rational methods, the invention is not restricted to this.
Characteristic vector determining module 102 in step s 302, can be true according to the variable quantity of each affecting parameters
Make the characteristic vector of measured data.In the present embodiment, for each affecting parameters, in actual applications
It would be of interest to the relative situation of change of its numerical value, therefore by setting one and each shadow respectively in the present embodiment
Ring the situation of change that the corresponding threshold value of parameter carrys out horizontal each affecting parameters of amount.When the variable quantity of affecting parameters exceedes
During threshold value, then just think that the affecting parameters are changed.In the present embodiment, it is preferred to use 1 carrys out table
Show that affecting parameters increase, represent that affecting parameters reduce using -1, represent that affecting parameters keep constant using 0.
It so also can be obtained by the characteristic vector of the measured data accessed by a certain moment.
Again as shown in Fig. 2 characteristic vector determining module 102 is after the characteristic vector of measured data is obtained, meeting
The characteristic vector of measured data is transferred to degree of association coefficient determination module 103, to determine mould by degree of association coefficient
Block 103, according to the characteristic vector of measured data and default drilling risk judgment matrix, is calculated in step S203
The characteristic vector of measured data and the degree of association coefficient of each fault type.
In the present embodiment, degree of association coefficient determination module 103 is in step S203 preferably by grey correlation
Analytic approach calculates the characteristic vector of measured data and the degree of association coefficient of each fault type.Grey correlation analysis
It is the method that Fault Identification is carried out using gray model.When system occurs abnormal, detected data are by table
Reveal some exceptions, and every kind of failure has its corresponding characteristic phenomenon.And the essence of grey correlation analysis is just
The characteristic vector and standard failure characteristic sequence eigenvectors matrix for being to determine measured data (preset drilling risk
Judgment matrix) similarity degree.Wherein, curve is closer to the degree of association between corresponding data sequence is also bigger.
In the present embodiment, it is assumed that the fault type being likely to occur during wellbore construction is total up to m, every kind of event
The element number that the characteristic vector of barrier type is included is n.By foregoing description, n in the present embodiment
Value is 8.
In the present embodiment, standard failure characteristic sequence eigenvectors matrix (presets drilling risk judgment matrix)
XRIt can be expressed as：
Wherein, XiRepresent the characteristic vector of the i-th class failure.It is pointed out that for standard failure feature sequence
Row eigenvectors matrix XRFor, each element in its each row has identical physical significance, but it takes
Being worth size may be different.
In the present embodiment, the measured data that characteristic vector determining module 102 is determined in step S202
Characteristic vector YTIt can be expressed as：
YT=[y1,y2,...,yn] (3)
Wherein, yjJ-th of element in the characteristic vector of measured data.
Fig. 4, which is shown, calculates the characteristic vector of measured data and the degree of association of each fault type in the present embodiment
The flow chart of coefficient.
As shown in figure 4, degree of association coefficient determination module 103 is calculated respectively in step S401 in the present embodiment
The characteristic vector of measured data and the worst error value and minimum error values of default drilling risk criterion matrix,
Above-mentioned worst error value and minimum error values are then based in step S402, the spy of measured data respectively is calculated
Levy the degree of association coefficient of vector and each fault type.
Specifically, the degree of association coefficient determination module 103 that the present embodiment is provided is in step S401 according to such as
Lower expression formula calculates the characteristic vector of measured data and the worst error of default drilling risk criterion matrix
Value δmaxWith minimum error values δmin：
Wherein, xijRepresent the element that the i-th row jth is arranged in default drilling risk criterion matrix.
In the present embodiment, degree of association coefficient determination module 103 is calculated in step S402 according to following expression
The characteristic vector of measured data and the degree of association coefficient of each fault type：
Wherein, ξijRepresent j-th of element y in the characteristic vector of measured datajFor the association of the i-th class failure
Coefficient is spent, m represents the sum of fault type, and n represents the element number that the characteristic vector of every kind of failure is included,
ρ represents resolution ratio.
Again as shown in Fig. 2 when each element in the characteristic vector for obtaining measured data and each fault type
After degree of association coefficient, these incidence coefficients can be transferred to risk profile module by degree of association coefficient determination module 103
104, to determine measured data according to above-mentioned degree of association coefficient in step S204 by risk profile module 104
With the degree of association of each fault type, and according to the degree of association judge drilling well to be analyzed whether there is risk.
Because different affecting parameters are different for the influence degree of wellbore construction process, therefore in order to characterize difference
The significance level of affecting parameters, the method that the present embodiment is provided is calculating actual measurement according to each degree of association coefficient
When data and the degree of association of each fault type, different weights also are imparted to each degree of association coefficient.Specifically
In ground, the present embodiment, measured data and the degree of association of each fault type are carried out preferably by following expression
Calculate：
Wherein, riRepresent the degree of association of measured data and the i-th class failure, ωjRepresent the characteristic vector of measured data
In j-th of element be directed to the i-th class failure weight.
It is pointed out that for the characteristic vector of measured data, it meets：
In the present embodiment, each fault type respectively correspond to is preset with a degree of association threshold value, if measured data with
The degree of association of a certain fault type is more than its respective associated degree threshold value, then then represent that now drilling well to be analyzed occurs
Failure can also determine the fault type of the failure simultaneously.
It is pointed out that in different embodiments of the invention, characteristic vector determining module 102, the degree of association
Coefficient determination module 103 and risk profile are opened 104 and can be both integrated in same data processing chip, also may be used
To be distributed in different data processing chip or equipment, the invention is not restricted to this.
In order to verify the practicality for the drilling risk Forecasting Methodology that the present embodiment is provided, the present embodiment utilizes the party
Method is analyzed the area X drilling wells of first dam.The drilling data of the regional drilling well in first dam is obtained first, and to data
Analyzed, so as to obtain useful data.Then accessed Data Data is carried out manually to count, divided
Analysis, arrangement.The parameter of complex situations well is occurred according to first dam area, anomaly parameter changing rule, parameter is summarized
Threshold value of change etc..
X drilling well wells get into 5496 meters, by inquiring that Field Force is determined without artificial reduction mud, do not have
Ground is lost, and is reduced using the pond body product amount of having a net increase of is calculated, by logging data variation phenomenon, difference in flow increases
Greatly, the calculating finally by theoretical model draws the degree of association 0.89 of leakage beyond the leakage degree of association with matching
Thresholding, therefore can be determined that as leakage.Find that leakage occurs for scene by this method, and the processing of progress in time is kept away
The further generation of risk is exempted from.
From foregoing description as can be seen that the present invention devise it is a kind of based on improved grey model associate drilling risk it is pre-
The new system of survey, the system utilizes real-time logging data, with reference to drill string size, borehole size, property of drilling fluid
Etc. parameter, the risk association degree size each put along along well track is calculated at a certain time interval, and (it can
The risk of prediction includes：Drill bit fails, drillling tool twisting off, leakage, well kick, and be hampered card and drilling string not well braked etc.), with
The prediction of drilling risk, Real time identification drilling risk and early warning, side are carried out during brill to any position of full well section
Construction technical staff is helped to control drilling risk.
It should be understood that disclosed embodiment of this invention is not limited to specific structure disclosed herein or processing
Step, and the equivalent substitute for these features that those of ordinary skill in the related art are understood should be extended to.Also
It should be appreciated that term as used herein is only used for describing the purpose of specific embodiment, and it is not meant to limit
System.
Special characteristic that " one embodiment " or " embodiment " mentioned in specification means to describe in conjunction with the embodiments,
During structure or characteristic are included at least one embodiment of the present invention.Therefore, specification various places throughout occurs
Phrase " one embodiment " or " embodiment " same embodiment might not be referred both to.
Although above-mentioned example is used to illustrate principle of the present invention in one or more applications, for this area
For technical staff, without departing substantially from the present invention principle and thought in the case of, hence it is evident that can in form, use
Various modifications may be made in method and the details of implementation and without paying creative work.Therefore, the present invention is by appended power
Sharp claim is limited.
Claims (9)
1. a kind of drilling risk forecasting system, it is characterised in that the system includes：
Initial data acquisition module, it is used for the measured data for obtaining drilling well to be analyzed, and the measured data is included
The initial data of multiple affecting parameters；
Characteristic vector determining module, it is connected with the initial data acquisition module, for the initial data
The measured data that acquisition module transmission comes is handled, and obtains the characteristic vector of the measured data；
Degree of association coefficient determination module, it is connected with the characteristic vector determining module, for according to the actual measurement
The characteristic vector of data and default drilling risk judgment matrix, calculate the characteristic vector of the measured data respectively
The degree of association coefficient of each element and each fault type；
Risk profile module, it is connected with the interconnected system determining module, for according to the degree of association coefficient
The degree of association of the measured data and each fault type is calculated, and judges described to be analyzed according to the degree of association
Drilling well whether there is risk.
2. the system as claimed in claim 1, it is characterised in that the characteristic vector determining module is configured to
First according to the measured data, the variable quantity of each affecting parameters is calculated respectively, is then joined according to each influence
Several variable quantities, determines the characteristic vector of the measured data.
3. system as claimed in claim 2, it is characterised in that when calculating the variable quantity of each affecting parameters,
The characteristic vector determining module is configured to calculate the average value of each affecting parameters first, then according to each shadow
Parameter is rung with the difference of its average value to determine the variable quantity of each affecting parameters.
4. system as claimed in claim 2 or claim 3, it is characterised in that the variable quantity of affecting parameters includes：
Change in torque amount, total pond body product net change amount, difference in flow, hook carry variable quantity, drilling tool bore hole quiescent time,
The pressure of the drill variable quantity, mechanical specific energy values and underground circulation equal yield density.
5. system as claimed in claim 4, it is characterised in that the characteristic vector determining module is configured to
When calculating the change in torque amount, real-time moment of torsion is standardized as pre-set dimension drill bit under predetermined depth first
Moment of torsion, so as to obtain standard torque, and the change in torque amount is calculated according to the standard torque.
6. such as system according to any one of claims 1 to 5, it is characterised in that the degree of association coefficient is true
Cover half block is configured to calculate the characteristic vector and default drilling risk criterion of the measured data respectively first
The worst error value and minimum error values of matrix, then according to the worst error value and minimum error values, are calculated
The degree of association coefficient of each element and each fault type in the characteristic vector of the measured data.
7. system as claimed in claim 6, it is characterised in that the degree of association coefficient determination module configuration
Each element and each fault type in characteristic vector to calculate the measured data according to following expression
Degree of association coefficient：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>&xi;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>&delta;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>+</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&rho;&delta;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mo>|</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msub>
<mo>-</mo>
<msub>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>|</mo>
<mo>+</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&rho;&delta;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
</mrow>
</mfrac>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
<mo>;</mo>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
Wherein, ξijRepresent j-th of element y in the characteristic vector of measured datajFor the association of the i-th class failure
Coefficient is spent, m represents the sum of fault type, and n represents the element number that the characteristic vector of every kind of failure is included,
δmaxAnd δminRepresent that the characteristic vector of measured data is missed with the maximum of default drilling risk criterion matrix respectively
Difference and minimum error values, ρ represent resolution ratio, xijRepresent the i-th row in default drilling risk criterion matrix
The element of jth row.
8. system as claimed in claims 6 or 7, it is characterised in that the incidence coefficient determining module is matched somebody with somebody
It is set to the characteristic vector and default drilling risk criterion matrix that measured data is calculated according to following expression
Worst error value and minimum error values：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>&delta;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<munder>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
</mrow>
</munder>
<mo>&lsqb;</mo>
<munder>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</munder>
<mo>|</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msub>
<mo>-</mo>
<msub>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>|</mo>
<mo>&rsqb;</mo>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>&delta;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<munder>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
</mrow>
</munder>
<mo>&lsqb;</mo>
<munder>
<mrow>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
<mrow>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>n</mi>
</mrow>
</munder>
<mo>|</mo>
<msub>
<mi>y</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msub>
<mo>-</mo>
<msub>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>|</mo>
<mo>&rsqb;</mo>
</mrow>
Wherein, δmaxAnd δminThe characteristic vector and default drilling risk criterion square of measured data are represented respectively
The worst error value and minimum error values of battle array, yjRepresent j-th of element in the characteristic vector of measured data, xij
Represent the element that the i-th row jth is arranged in default drilling risk criterion matrix.
9. such as system according to any one of claims 1 to 8, it is characterised in that the risk profile module
It is configured to calculate the drilling risk degree of association of each affecting parameters according to following expression：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
<mrow>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>n</mi>
</munderover>
<msub>
<mi>&omega;</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>&xi;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>0</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&omega;</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msub>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>&le;</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
</mrow>
Wherein, riRepresent the degree of association of measured data and the i-th class failure, ωjRepresent the characteristic vector of measured data
In j-th of element be directed to the i-th class failure weight, ξijRepresent j-th yuan in the characteristic vector of measured data
Element is directed to the degree of association coefficient of the i-th class failure, and m represents the sum of fault type, and n represents the spy of every kind of failure
Levy the element number that vector is included.
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| CN109859066A (en) * | 2017-11-30 | 2019-06-07 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | A kind of method and apparatus of determining technological parameter |
| CN110121053A (en) * | 2018-02-07 | 2019-08-13 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of video monitoring method of situ of drilling well risk stratification early warning |
| CN110874686A (en) * | 2018-09-04 | 2020-03-10 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Underground risk discrimination method |
| CN111677493A (en) * | 2019-03-11 | 2020-09-18 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Drilling data processing method |
| CN112443319A (en) * | 2019-09-05 | 2021-03-05 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Well kick monitoring method |
| CN117420150A (en) * | 2023-12-18 | 2024-01-19 | 西安石油大学 | Analysis and prediction system and prediction method based on drilling parameters |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN109859066A (en) * | 2017-11-30 | 2019-06-07 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | A kind of method and apparatus of determining technological parameter |
| CN110121053A (en) * | 2018-02-07 | 2019-08-13 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of video monitoring method of situ of drilling well risk stratification early warning |
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| CN117420150B (en) * | 2023-12-18 | 2024-03-08 | 西安石油大学 | Analysis and prediction system and prediction method based on drilling parameters |
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