CN107292508A - A kind of electric energy substitutes the analyzing and predicting method and system of potentiality - Google Patents
A kind of electric energy substitutes the analyzing and predicting method and system of potentiality Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides the analyzing and predicting method that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, including：When receiving electric energy replacement Potential Prediction request, obtain electric energy in set of regions corresponding with the predictions request and substitute potentiality accounting highest region, electric energy in each industry is selected in this region and substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise, and the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise is excavated；According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, influence of the market factor to the power consumption in the region is determined；Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted is determined；By the energy-saving potential Result of the typical enterprise, the sale of electricity strategy that the market factor is substituted to the influence result of the region power consumption and the region electric energy, the electric energy substitution effect to the region carries out analysis prediction.Solve and the problem of potentiality carry out analysis prediction is not substituted to the electric energy in the region in the prior art.
Description
Technical field
The analyzing and predicting method and system of potentiality are substituted the present invention relates to energy-saving and emission-reduction field, more particularly to a kind of electric energy.
Background technology
State Grid Corporation of China build at present cover power sales analysis, electric energy substitute management, energy conservation service service management,
DSM target responsibility checks, ordered electric management, demand response management, user's use can service, with can acquisition management, knowledge base etc.
National platform-electric energy service management platform of nine big business functions.
At present, in order to tackle increasingly severeer problem of environmental pollution, the national investment to energy-saving and emission-reduction is increasingly
Greatly, existing platform only realizes the management to the electric energy replacement in each region, for the electric energy in each region
Substitute how potentiality do not carry out analysis prediction, lack a set of scientific and effective forecast analysis side that potentiality are substituted for electric energy
Method.
The content of the invention
In view of this, the invention provides the analyzing and predicting method that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, to solve prior art
In not to electric energy substitute potentiality carry out analysis prediction the problem of.Concrete scheme is as follows：
A kind of electric energy substitutes the analyzing and predicting method of potentiality, including：
When receiving the predictions request of electric energy replacement potentiality, obtain each in set of regions corresponding with the predictions request
The electric energy in individual region substitutes potentiality, chooses electric energy in the set of regions and substitutes potentiality accounting highest region, determines the region
The electric energy of middle industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy in each described industry and substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；
According to the energy consumption analysis model of typical energy consumption system, the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise is excavated；
According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, shadow of the market factor to the power consumption in the region is determined
Ring；
Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted is determined；
Pass through the Result of the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, influence knot of the market factor to the region power consumption
The sale of electricity strategy that fruit and the region electric energy are substituted, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that select electric energy in each described industry and substitute potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise
Including：
The using for coal, oil, combustion gas for obtaining each industry can situation and corresponding region GDP total quantities；
Using principal component analytical method, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
With energy situation before and after the electric energy of each enterprise in each industry described in sunykatuib analysis is substituted successively, electric energy is determined
Potentiality accounting highest enterprise is substituted as the typical enterprise of each industry.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that according to the energy consumption analysis model of typical energy consumption system, to the energy-conservation of the typical enterprise
Potentiality, which carry out excavation, to be included：
The energy consumption data with energy equipment of the typical enterprise is obtained, the energy consumption with energy equipment is evaluated；
The energy consumption data of the operating condition of the typical enterprise is obtained, realizes and the energy consumption of the operating condition is commented
Valency；
According to the result of above-mentioned evaluation, energy-saving and emission-reduction index is determined.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that according to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, determine the market factor to institute
Stating the influence of the power consumption in region includes：
Obtain the electricity consumption data, economic data and marketing data in the region；
The economic data and the marketing number are distributed into economic indicator to electricity impact analysis unit, to the battalion of electricity
Pin analysis provides instruction；
The electricity consumption data is distributed into impact analysis unit of the meteorological index to power consumption, proposes meteorologic factor to electricity
The instruction of influence；
According to meteorologic factor and the instruction of economic factor analysis, index on power consumption is determined.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that sell Extended Model according to electric energy, determining the sale of electricity strategy in the region includes：
Policy is substituted as foundation using energy-saving and emission-reduction policy and electric energy, with reference to influence factor and weight, determines that the energy-conservation subtracts
Row's policy and the electric energy substitute influence of the policy to sale of electricity strategy；
The proportion of final energy consumption and the relation of per Unit GDP Energy Consumption are accounted for by analyzing electric energy, efficiency lifting and electricity is drawn
The dependency relation that can be substituted；
According to the above results, power sales index is determined, sale of electricity strategy is formulated.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that the electric energy replacement potentiality progress analysis prediction to the region includes：
Obtain the index on power consumption that the electric energy in the influence region is substituted, power sales index and energy-saving and emission-reduction index；
Index on power consumption, power sales index, energy-saving and emission-reduction Index Establishment assessment indicator system according to the region, enter
The analysis prediction of row science, the analysis for providing the electric energy replacement potentiality in the region predicts the outcome.
Above-mentioned method, it is preferred that also include：
According to the assessment indicator system, electric energy is carried out to each industry in the region and typical enterprise and substitutes potentiality
Excavation.
A kind of electric energy substitutes the analysing and predicting system of potentiality, including：
Potential module is substituted, for when receiving the predictions request of electric energy replacement potentiality, obtaining and the predictions request
The electric energy in each region substitutes potentiality in corresponding set of regions, chooses electric energy in the set of regions and substitutes potentiality accounting highest
Region, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy replacement potentiality in each described industry and accounts for
Than highest typical enterprise；
Energy consumption analysis module, for the energy consumption analysis model according to typical energy consumption system, to the energy-conservation of the typical enterprise
Potentiality are excavated；
Market factor module, for, to electricity relational model, determining the market factor to institute according to market environment influence factor
State the influence of the power consumption in region；
Module is expanded in sale, for selling Extended Model according to electric energy, determines the sale of electricity that the electric energy in the region is substituted
Strategy；
Effect prediction module, for the energy-saving potential Result by the typical enterprise, the market factor is to the area
The sale of electricity strategy that the influence result of domain power consumption and the region electric energy are substituted, the electric energy replacement potentiality to the region are divided
Analysis prediction.
Above-mentioned system, it is preferred that the replacement potential module includes：
Acquiring unit, the using for coal, oil, combustion gas for obtaining each industry can situation and corresponding region
GDP total quantities；
Determining unit, for using principal component analytical method, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
Analogue unit, the electric energy for each enterprise in each industry described in sunykatuib analysis successively substitutes front and rear energy
Situation, determines that electric energy substitutes potentiality accounting highest enterprise as the typical enterprise of each industry.
Above-mentioned system, it is preferred that also include：Electric energy substitutes Potential model module；
The electric energy substitutes Potential model module, for according to the assessment indicator system, to each in the region
Industry and typical enterprise carry out the excavation that electric energy substitutes potentiality.
The invention discloses the analyzing and predicting method that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, including：Potentiality are substituted when receiving electric energy
Predictions request when, the electric energy for obtaining each region in corresponding with predictions request set of regions substitutes potentiality, selection institute
State electric energy in set of regions and substitute potentiality accounting highest region, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, choosing
Go out electric energy in each described industry and substitute potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；Energy consumption analysis mould according to typical energy consumption system
Type, is excavated to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise；According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, city is determined
Influence of the field factor to the power consumption in the region；Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the electric energy replacement in the region is determined
Sale of electricity strategy；Pass through the Result of the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, influence of the market factor to the region power consumption
As a result the sale of electricity strategy substituted with the region electric energy, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.Solve
The problem of potentiality carry out analysis prediction is not substituted to electric energy in the prior art.
Brief description of the drawings
In order to illustrate more clearly about the embodiment of the present invention or technical scheme of the prior art, below will be to embodiment or existing
There is the accompanying drawing used required in technology description to be briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only this
Some embodiments of invention, for those of ordinary skill in the art, on the premise of not paying creative work, can be with
Other accompanying drawings are obtained according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes Potentials Forecasting Methodology flow chart disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 2 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 3 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 4 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 5 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 6 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 7 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another method flow diagram of Potentials Forecasting Methodology disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 8 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes Potentials forecasting system structured flowchart disclosed in the embodiment of the present application；
Fig. 9 is that a kind of electric energy substitutes the another structured flowchart of Potentials forecasting system disclosed in the embodiment of the present application.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the present invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out clear, complete
Site preparation is described, it is clear that described embodiment is only a part of embodiment of the invention, rather than whole embodiments.It is based on
Embodiment in the present invention, it is every other that those of ordinary skill in the art are obtained under the premise of creative work is not made
Embodiment, belongs to the scope of protection of the invention.
The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments, enables professional and technical personnel in the field to realize or using the present invention.
A variety of modifications to these embodiments will be apparent for those skilled in the art, as defined herein
General Principle can be realized in other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention.Therefore, it is of the invention
The embodiments shown herein is not intended to be limited to, and is to fit to and principles disclosed herein and features of novelty phase one
The most wide scope caused.
The invention provides the analyzing and predicting method that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, methods described is based on existing electric energy clothes
What management platform of being engaged in was carried out, rely on and have built up the electricity consumption big data of electric energy service management platform, set up a set of science, objectively
Assistant analysis and decision-making technique, and model and apply in platform, build and data are analyzed based on rational model, handled
Integrated multi-party data, to be the application purpose unified platform with that can service, to ensure the science, accurate and have of data processing and analysis
Effect.The executive agent that the electric energy substitutes Assessment Method on Potential can be the processor in terminal, be particularly applicable in and electric energy is replaced
The analysis prediction of potentiality, flow chart such as Fig. 1 institutes of methods described are substituted for the electric energy of project or the region that there is electric energy replacement
Show, including step：
S101, when receiving electric energy and substituting the predictions request of potentiality, obtain corresponding with predictions request set of regions
In the electric energy in each region substitute potentiality, choose electric energy in the set of regions and substitute potentiality accounting highest region, determine institute
The electric energy for stating industry-by-industry in region substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy in each described industry and substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical case
Enterprise；
In the embodiment of the present invention, what set of regions was represented is the whole nation, one province of each Regional Representative, when receiving electric energy
When substituting Potentials predictions request, determine that the electric energy of regional substitutes potentiality successively, choose electric energy and substitute potentiality accounting most
High region, determines that the electric energy of the industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, according to default analysis method, determines described each
Electric energy in individual industry substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise.
S102, the energy consumption analysis model according to typical energy consumption system, are excavated to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise；
In the embodiment of the present invention, obtaining typical use in the modeling tool supporting module of the electric energy service management platform can be
The energy consumption analysis model of system, the energy consumption analysis model according to the typical energy consumption system enters to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise
Row is excavated.
S103, foundation market environment influence factor determine electricity consumption of the market factor to the region to electricity relational model
The influence of amount；
In the embodiment of the present invention, market environment shadow is obtained in the modeling tool supporting module of the electric energy service management platform
The factor of sound is to electricity relational model, according to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, determine the market factor to it is described certain
The influence of the power consumption in one province.
S104, foundation electric energy sell Extended Model, determine the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted；
In the embodiment of the present invention, obtain electric energy sale in the modeling tool supporting module of the electric energy service management platform and open up
Model is opened up, Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted is determined.
S105, the Result by the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, the market factor is to the region power consumption
The sale of electricity strategy for influenceing result and the region electric energy to substitute, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.
In the embodiment of the present invention, according to S102-S105 analysis result, the electric energy replacement to the region in S101 is latent
Power carries out analysis prediction.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the typical energy consumption system energy consumption analysis, by gather key equipment nameplate parameter or
Monitor equipment working voltage, power, power factor etc. on-line, the basic parameter of energy analysis is provided for typical energy consumption system；Institute
Market environment influence factor is stated to power consumption relational model, is often carried by direct reference model result of study formation economic growth rate
It is high 1 percentage point, by the conclusion of 1.2677 percentage points of the year-on-year growth rate raising of power consumption, linear model is set；The electricity
It is direct reference model result that Extended Model etc., which can be sold, carries out data analysis.
The invention discloses the analyzing and predicting method that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, including：Potentiality are substituted when receiving electric energy
Predictions request when, the electric energy for obtaining each region in corresponding with predictions request set of regions substitutes potentiality, selection institute
State electric energy in set of regions and substitute potentiality accounting highest region, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, choosing
Go out electric energy in each described industry and substitute potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；Energy consumption analysis mould according to typical energy consumption system
Type, is excavated to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise；According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, city is determined
Influence of the field factor to the power consumption in the region；Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the electric energy replacement in the region is determined
Sale of electricity strategy；Pass through the Result of the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, influence of the market factor to the region power consumption
As a result the sale of electricity strategy substituted with the region electric energy, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.Solve
The problem of potentiality carry out analysis prediction is not substituted to electric energy in the prior art.
In the embodiment of the present invention, go out the method that electric energy substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise in each described industry
Flow chart, as shown in Fig. 2 including step：
S201, the coal for obtaining each industry, oil, the use energy situation and corresponding region GDP total amount feelings of combustion gas
Condition；
In the embodiment of the present invention, the electric energy substitutes the controller and the electricity of the analyzing and predicting method executive agent of potentiality
Energy service management platform is connected, and can obtain the data of the electric energy service management platform, the electric energy service management platform
In the presence of two data-interfaces：Integrated entrance and base profile management module.
The integrated entrance includes：With the interface of electric energy service management platform, the interface with economic indicator data, with meteorology
The interface of achievement data and the interface with marketing data.
The base profile management module includes：
(1) subscriber information management
For managing the enterprise user information situation registration in electric energy replacement project region.
(2) project information management
Intend implementing electric energy alternatives purpose project information management for registering.
(3) device parameter is managed
For safeguarding that registration intends implementing the facility information situation of electric energy alternatives purpose enterprise.
(4) electricity consumption data is managed
Intend implementing electric energy replacement project business electrical data cases management for managing.
(5) marketing data is managed
For being managed collectively to required marketing data.
(6) economic data is managed
For the maintenance management to economic data needed for system business.
(7) policy maintenance management
For the maintenance management to policy information needed for system business.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the coal of each industry is obtained according to integrated entrance and base profile management module
Charcoal, oil, the use energy situation of combustion gas and corresponding region GDP total quantities.
S202, using principal component analytical method, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
In the embodiment of the present invention, using PCA, the electric energy that the industry-by-industry in the region is calculated successively is substituted
Potentiality, and be ranked up.
The electric energy of each enterprise in each industry described in S203, successively sunykatuib analysis uses energy situation before and after substituting, really
Determine electric energy and substitute potentiality accounting highest enterprise as the typical enterprise of each industry.
In the embodiment of the present invention, some each enterprises are also included in each described industry, pass through integrated entrance and basic shelves
Case management module obtains the data of the electric energy replacement influence factor of some enterprises, and the electric energy of some enterprises is calculated successively
Potentiality are substituted, electric energy in some enterprises is selected and substitutes potentiality accounting highest enterprise, be used as typical enterprise.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the energy consumption analysis mould, it is necessary to according to typical energy consumption system is determined after the typical enterprise
Type, is excavated to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, method flow diagram as shown in figure 3, including：Step：
S301 obtains the energy consumption data with energy equipment of the typical enterprise, and the energy consumption with energy equipment is commented
Valency；
In the embodiment of the present invention, the energy consumption data with energy equipment of base profile management module is obtained, according to energy consumption
Data, are evaluated the energy consumption with energy equipment of typical enterprise.
S302, the operating condition of the acquisition typical enterprise energy consumption data, realize and the energy consumption of the operating condition are entered
Row is evaluated；
In the embodiment of the present invention, the energy consumption data of operating condition described in base profile management module is obtained, is realized to described
The energy consumption of operating condition is evaluated；
S303, the result according to above-mentioned evaluation, determine energy-saving and emission-reduction index.
In the embodiment of the present invention, electric energy alternatives purpose described in the energy-saving and emission-reduction characteristic evidences is different, index there is also
Difference, energy-saving and emission-reduction index can be the electric energy alternatives purpose electric power system, central air conditioner system, the correlation such as electric system
The energy-saving and emission-reduction ability of system.
In the embodiment of the present invention, according to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, determine the market factor to described
The method flow diagram of the influence of the power consumption in each region is as shown in figure 4, including step：
S401, electricity consumption data, economic data and the marketing data for obtaining the region；
In the embodiment of the present invention, by base profile management module obtain the electricity consumption data in the region, economic data and
Marketing data.
S402, the economic data and the marketing number distributed into economic indicator to electricity impact analysis unit, to electricity
The marketing analysis of amount provides instruction；
In the embodiment of the present invention, by setting up the correlation model of the economic indicators such as GDP, investment, yield and power consumption, realize
Influence relation of the economic indicators such as GDP, investment, yield to power consumption
S403, the electricity consumption data distributed to impact analysis unit of the meteorological index to power consumption, propose meteorologic factor
The instruction influenceed on electricity；
In the embodiment of the present invention, by meteorological index such as temperature in region and precipitation, analysis temperature is with precipitation to power consumption
Correlation analysis, the dependency graph table analysis of temperature and precipitation to power consumption is drawn, for region load prediction.
S404, the instruction according to meteorologic factor and economic factor analysis, determine index on power consumption.
In the embodiment of the present invention, by summary two kinds of analysis models, GDP, investment, yield, temperature, precipitation etc. are realized
Economy and meteorologic parameter, realize that mixed economy total amount is analyzed the predictability of the power consumption with meteorological index, determine power consumption
Index.
According to electric energy sell Extended Model, determine the method flow diagram of the sale of electricity strategy in the region as shown in figure 5, including
Step：
S501, policy substituted as foundation using energy-saving and emission-reduction policy and electric energy, with reference to influence factor and weight, determine the section
Can the influence of emission reduction policy and electric energy replacement policy to sale of electricity strategy；
It is real with reference to the relative influence factor by the quantization to energy-saving and emission-reduction policy, weight analysis in the embodiment of the present invention
Existing energy-saving and emission-reduction policy is analyzed the relative influence of efficiency level；Be mainly reflected in energy-saving and emission-reduction policy and the whole nation, each province,
The per GDP energy-output ratio of every profession and trade carries out relative influence analysis；By analyze electric energy substitute policy and the whole nation, each province,
Every profession and trade electric energy replacement amount carries out correlation analysis, show that electric energy substitutes policy and the relative influence of electric energy replacement amount is analyzed.
S502, by analyzing electric energy the proportion of final energy consumption and the relation of per Unit GDP Energy Consumption are accounted for, show that efficiency is lifted
The dependency relation substituted with electric energy.
In the embodiment of the present invention, efficiency lifting is characterized by per Unit GDP Energy Consumption.Terminal energy sources are accounted for by analyzing electric energy
The proportion of consumption and the dependency relation of per Unit GDP Energy Consumption, draw the dependency relation that efficiency lifting is substituted with electric energy.
S503, foundation the above results, determine power sales index, formulate sale of electricity strategy.
During the present invention is implemented, according to the above results, it is determined that the index factor of influence power sales, the power sales refer to
Mark, is influenceed by Multiple factors such as region, industry, national policy and per Unit GDP Energy Consumptions.According to the power sales index, system
Determine sale of electricity strategy.
In the embodiment of the present invention, method flow diagram such as Fig. 6 that potentiality analyze prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region
It is shown, including step：
S601, the index on power consumption for obtaining the electric energy replacement for influenceing each region, power sales index and energy-conservation
Emission reduction index；
S602, the index on power consumption according to each region, power sales index, energy-saving and emission-reduction Index Establishment are evaluated
Index system, carries out the analysis prediction of science, and the analysis for providing the electric energy replacement potentiality in each region predicts the outcome.
In the embodiment of the present invention, potentiality are substituted to the electric energy in the region according to the assessment indicator system and carry out analyzing pre-
Survey, analyze the electric energy implementing or completing and substitute project, if rationally, if also in the presence of can with improved space,
The related opinion or method for continuing to optimize is provided in energy-saving and emission-reduction field.
During the present invention is embodiment, when completing after the electric energy to the region substitutes the analysis prediction of potentiality, in addition to
Potentiality are substituted to electric energy to excavate, method flow diagram is as shown in fig. 7, comprises step：
S106, according to the assessment indicator system, electric energy is carried out to each industry in the region and typical enterprise and replaced
For the excavation of potentiality.
, successively will be each in the region according to the evaluation index in the assessment indicator system in the embodiment of the present invention
The actual electric energy of individual industry and typical enterprise substitutes potentiality and is analyzed with analyzing the electric energy drawn replacement potentiality, excavates
Influence electric energy to substitute the factor of the raising of potential value, the factor is improved, improve the electric energy and substitute potentiality, further
Realize energy-saving and emission-reduction.
It is corresponding with the analyzing and predicting method that above-mentioned electric energy substitutes potentiality to substitute potentiality present invention additionally comprises a kind of electric energy
Analysing and predicting system, structured flowchart as shown in figure 8, including：
Module 704 and effect are expanded in potentiality alternative module 701, energy consumption analysis module 702, market factor module 703, sale
Prediction module 705.
Wherein,
It is described replacement potential module 701, for when receive electric energy substitute potentiality predictions request when, obtain with it is described pre-
The electric energy for surveying each region in the corresponding set of regions of request substitutes potentiality, chooses electric energy in the set of regions and substitutes potentiality accounting
Highest region, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy in each described industry and substitutes
Potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；
The energy consumption analysis module 702, for the energy consumption analysis model according to typical energy consumption system, to the typical enterprise
Energy-saving potential excavated；
The market factor module 703, for according to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, determine market because
Influence of the element to the power consumption in the region；
Module 704 is expanded in the sale, for selling Extended Model according to electric energy, determines that the electric energy in the region is substituted
Sale of electricity strategy；
The effect prediction module 705, for the energy-saving potential Result by the typical enterprise, the market factor pair
The sale of electricity strategy that the influence result of the region power consumption and the region electric energy are substituted, potentiality are substituted to the electric energy in the region
Carry out analysis prediction.
The invention discloses the analysing and predicting system that a kind of electric energy substitutes potentiality, including：Potentiality are substituted when receiving electric energy
Predictions request when, the electric energy for obtaining each region in corresponding with predictions request set of regions substitutes potentiality, selection institute
State electric energy in set of regions and substitute potentiality accounting highest region, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, choosing
Go out electric energy in each described industry and substitute potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；Energy consumption analysis mould according to typical energy consumption system
Type, is excavated to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise；According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, city is determined
Influence of the field factor to the power consumption in the region；Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the electric energy replacement in the region is determined
Sale of electricity strategy；Pass through the Result of the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, influence of the market factor to the region power consumption
As a result the sale of electricity strategy substituted with the region electric energy, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.Solve
The problem of potentiality carry out analysis prediction is not substituted to electric energy in the prior art.
It is described substitute potential module 701 structured flowchart as shown in figure 9, including：
Acquiring unit 706, determining unit 707 and analogue unit 708.
Wherein,
The acquiring unit 706, for obtain each industry coal, oil, combustion gas with can situation and right
Answer region GDP total quantity；
The determining unit 707, for using principal component analytical method, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
The analogue unit 708, the electric energy for each enterprise in each industry described in sunykatuib analysis successively is substituted
It is front and rear to use energy situation, determine that electric energy substitutes potentiality accounting highest enterprise as the typical enterprise of each industry.
In the embodiment of the present invention, the analysing and predicting system that the electric energy substitutes potentiality also includes electric energy replacement Potential model mould
Block 709, its structured flowchart is as shown in Figure 9：
The electric energy substitutes Potential model module 709, for according to the assessment indicator system, to each in the region
Individual industry and typical enterprise carry out the excavation that electric energy substitutes potentiality.
It should be noted that each embodiment in this specification is described by the way of progressive, each embodiment weight
Point explanation be all between difference with other embodiment, each embodiment identical similar part mutually referring to.
For device class embodiment, because it is substantially similar to embodiment of the method, so description is fairly simple, related part is joined
See the part explanation of embodiment of the method.
Finally, in addition it is also necessary to explanation, in this application, such as first and second or the like relational terms are used merely to
One entity or operation are made a distinction with another entity or operation, and not necessarily require or imply these entities or behaviour
There is any this actual relation or order between work.Moreover, term " comprising ", "comprising" or its any other variant
Including for nonexcludability is intended to, so that process, method, article or equipment including a series of key elements not only include
Those key elements, but also other key elements including being not expressly set out, or also include for this process, method, article or
The intrinsic key element of person's equipment.In the absence of more restrictions, the key element limited by sentence "including a ...", not
Also there is other identical element in the process including the key element, method, article or equipment in exclusion.
The foregoing description of the disclosed embodiments, enables those skilled in the art to realize or using the present invention.To this
A variety of modifications of a little embodiments will be apparent for a person skilled in the art, and generic principles defined herein can
Without departing from the spirit or scope of the present invention, to realize in other embodiments.Therefore, the present invention will not be limited
It is formed on the embodiments shown herein, and is to fit to consistent with features of novelty with principles disclosed herein most wide
Scope.
Described above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications also should
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of electric energy substitutes the analyzing and predicting method of potentiality, it is characterised in that including：
When receiving the predictions request of electric energy replacement potentiality, each area in set of regions corresponding with the predictions request is obtained
The electric energy in domain substitutes potentiality, chooses electric energy in the set of regions and substitutes potentiality accounting highest region, determines each in the region
The electric energy of individual industry substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy in each described industry and substitutes potentiality accounting highest typical enterprise；
According to the energy consumption analysis model of typical energy consumption system, the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise is excavated；
According to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, influence of the market factor to the power consumption in the region is determined；
Extended Model is sold according to electric energy, the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted is determined；
By the Result of the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise, the market factor to the influence result of the region power consumption and
The sale of electricity strategy that the region electric energy is substituted, potentiality progress analysis prediction is substituted to the electric energy in the region.
2. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that select electric energy in each described industry and substitute potentiality accounting most
High typical enterprise includes：
The using for coal, oil, combustion gas for obtaining each industry can situation and corresponding region GDP total quantities；
Using principal component analytical method, determine that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
With energy situation before and after the electric energy of each enterprise in each industry described in sunykatuib analysis is substituted successively, determine that electric energy is substituted
Potentiality accounting highest enterprise as each industry typical enterprise.
3. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that according to the energy consumption analysis model of typical energy consumption system, to described
The energy-saving potential of typical enterprise, which carries out excavation, to be included：
The energy consumption data with energy equipment of the typical enterprise is obtained, the energy consumption with energy equipment is evaluated；
The energy consumption data of the operating condition of the typical enterprise is obtained, realizes and the energy consumption of the operating condition is evaluated；
According to the result of above-mentioned evaluation, energy-saving and emission-reduction index is determined.
4. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that according to market environment influence factor to electricity relational model, really
Determining influence of the market factor to the power consumption in the region includes：
Obtain the electricity consumption data, economic data and marketing data in the region；
The economic data and the marketing number are distributed into economic indicator to electricity impact analysis unit, the marketing point to electricity
Analysis provides instruction；
The electricity consumption data is distributed into impact analysis unit of the meteorological index to power consumption, proposes that meteorologic factor influences on electricity
Instruction；
According to meteorologic factor and the instruction of economic factor analysis, index on power consumption is determined.
5. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that sell Extended Model according to electric energy, determine selling for the region
Electric strategy includes：
Policy is substituted as foundation using energy-saving and emission-reduction policy and electric energy, with reference to influence factor and weight, the energy-saving and emission-reduction political affairs are determined
Plan and the electric energy substitute influence of the policy to sale of electricity strategy；
The proportion of final energy consumption and the relation of per Unit GDP Energy Consumption are accounted for by analyzing electric energy, show that efficiency lifting is replaced with electric energy
The dependency relation in generation；
According to the above results, power sales index is determined, sale of electricity strategy is formulated.
6. according to claim 3,4 or 5 methods describeds, it is characterised in that the electric energy replacement potentiality to the region are analyzed
Prediction includes：
Obtain the index on power consumption that the electric energy in the influence region is substituted, power sales index and energy-saving and emission-reduction index；
Index on power consumption, power sales index, energy-saving and emission-reduction Index Establishment assessment indicator system according to the region, carry out section
Analysis prediction, the analysis for providing the electric energy replacement potentiality in the region predicts the outcome.
7. method according to claim 6, it is characterised in that also include：
According to the assessment indicator system, the digging that electric energy substitutes potentiality is carried out to each industry in the region and typical enterprise
Pick.
8. a kind of electric energy substitutes the analysing and predicting system of potentiality, it is characterised in that including：
Potential module is substituted, for when receiving the predictions request of electric energy replacement potentiality, obtaining corresponding with the predictions request
Set of regions in the electric energy in each region substitute potentiality, choose electric energy in the set of regions and substitute potentiality accounting highest area
Domain, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry in the region substitutes potentiality, selects electric energy in each described industry and substitutes potentiality accounting
Highest typical enterprise；
Energy consumption analysis module, for the energy consumption analysis model according to typical energy consumption system, to the energy-saving potential of the typical enterprise
Excavated；
Market factor module, for, to electricity relational model, determining the market factor to the area according to market environment influence factor
The influence of the power consumption in domain；
Module is expanded in sale, for selling Extended Model according to electric energy, determines the sale of electricity strategy that the electric energy in the region is substituted；
Effect prediction module, for the energy-saving potential Result by the typical enterprise, the market factor is used the region
The sale of electricity strategy that the influence result of electricity and the region electric energy are substituted, the electric energy replacement potentiality to the region carry out analyzing pre-
Survey.
9. system according to claim 8, it is characterised in that the replacement potential module includes：
Acquiring unit, for obtain each industry coal, oil, combustion gas with can situation and corresponding region GDP it is total
Amount situation；
Determining unit, for using principal component analytical method, determines that the electric energy of industry-by-industry substitutes potentiality；
Analogue unit, the electric energy for each enterprise in each industry described in sunykatuib analysis successively is used before and after substituting can feelings
Condition, determines that electric energy substitutes potentiality accounting highest enterprise as the typical enterprise of each industry.
10. system according to claim 8, it is characterised in that also include:Electric energy substitutes Potential model module；
The electric energy substitutes Potential model module, for according to the assessment indicator system, to each industry in the region
The excavation that electric energy substitutes potentiality is carried out with typical enterprise.
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