CN107220775B - Active power distribution network multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method considering information system effect - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method for an active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, which comprises the steps of firstly, establishing a certainty-randomness topological structure model aiming at the randomness of the occurrence of external disasters of the power distribution network; determining the failure probability of the information physical element under the multi-time scale collaborative influence under the disaster condition based on the system panoramic information; then establishing an active power distribution network functional group fault probability model considering the action of an information system; evaluating various running states and grid structure structures of the active power distribution network in a source grid load interaction mode, constructing a vulnerability evaluation system in the source grid load interaction mode in which the active power distribution network and an information system are fused, and simultaneously evaluating the cooperative vulnerability of interaction between the grid structure of the power distribution network and the running states and between a physical system and the information system; and finally, establishing a local cooperative vulnerability index, a regional cooperative vulnerability index and a global cooperative vulnerability index system on a spatial scale, and more comprehensively and specifically evaluating the vulnerability of the active power distribution network.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power distribution, in particular to a multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method for an active power distribution network considering the action of an information system.
Background
With the continuous introduction of information technology and the rapid development of active power distribution networks, power distribution networks have become complex information physical systems integrating physical and information communication technologies. In particular, in recent years, extreme external disasters and attack phenomena of an information system frequently occur, and it is very important to perform multi-view collaborative vulnerability assessment on an active power distribution network considering the effect of the information system.
At present, a vulnerability assessment method of a power grid comprises the following steps: when the fault probability of the power distribution network under the disaster condition is analyzed, only physical system elements are considered, the fault probability of information system elements is not considered, and most of the fault probability is not considered, the collaborative influence of multiple time scales of an external environment borne by the physical information elements in the disaster period in the whole life cycle is not considered, so that the probability prediction is not accurate enough; when the topological structure model of the power distribution network is established, the deterministic topological model of the power distribution network is only considered, and the random influence of external disasters under disaster conditions is not considered; the influence of an information system on the vulnerability of the active power distribution network in each important link of the source network load is not considered when each vulnerability index of the active power distribution network is analyzed, so that an evaluation result is too extensive and is not practical; some power distribution network vulnerability indexes are considered, and only a complex network theory and a risk effect theory are applied to analyze the grid structure and the running state of the power distribution network, and the synergy between the actual active power distribution network and an information system and the synergy between the grid structure and the running state are not considered, so that the evaluation result is not comprehensive enough; at present, vulnerability indexes of the power distribution network are mostly considered from a single part, and the vulnerability of the regional and global power distribution networks is not evaluated from a spatial scale, so that a basis is not provided for power distribution network risk early warning.
Therefore, the power distribution network with the network frame structure and the operation state and the information and physical system synergistic effect is subjected to synergistic vulnerability assessment from multiple perspectives of research on the influence of an information physical system and an external disaster on the power distribution network, source network load interaction of an active power distribution network and the information system, a complex network theory, a synergistic effect theory and a risk utility theory, the improvement of power supply reliability of the power distribution network and the prevention of a blackout accident are facilitated, and the safe and stable operation of the power distribution network is guaranteed.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a multi-view collaborative vulnerability assessment method for an active power distribution network based on panoramic information and comprehensively considering the action of an information system.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows:
a multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method for an active power distribution network considering the effect of an information system is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: determining the fault probability of a multi-time scale collaborative influence information physical element under a disaster condition based on panoramic information of an active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, wherein the panoramic information comprises but is not limited to geographic information, external environment information, power grid operation and distribution information and risk and fault information;
step 2: establishing a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model of the active power distribution network and external disasters, wherein the deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model comprises the following steps:
G＝(N,L)
wherein G is a nondirectional and authorized sparse graph with N nodes and L edges of the power distribution network after simplification processing, and W is0Is a power distribution network connection weight matrix, a matrix element wijIs the reactance per unit value of the transmission line between the node i and the node j, i is more than or equal to 1, j is more than or equal to N, wi'jThe reactance per unit value of the transmission line between the node i and the node j is considered under the influence of disaster randomness; dhThe influence coefficient of the corresponding type of disaster on the power distribution network, k is the number of disaster types considering single disaster and multi-disaster aggregation condition, WuA deterministic-stochastic connection weight matrix for distribution network and external disaster, mu is a guaranteed certainty-a correction factor for the physical properties of the random connection weight matrix;
and step 3: on the basis of a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model of the power distribution network and external disasters, finding out an active power distribution network system fragile source considering the action of an information system by using the theoretical characteristics of a complex network, simultaneously considering the influence of different communication network structures and redundancy degrees on the information system, and respectively simulating the fault conditions of elements related to physical and information fragile sources in the system;
and 4, step 4: considering the influence of the information system effect on the active power distribution network elements, combining the information physical element fault probability influenced by multiple time scales under the disaster condition to obtain the fault probability based on the functional group, and identifying the cascading faults based on the functional group decomposition;
and 5: utilize risk utility theory to assess various running state and spatial grid structure under source net lotus interactive mode, wherein the power side includes: the distributed power supply grid connection rate, the emergency power supply, the UPS application rate and the bus fragility; the power distribution network side includes: node fragility, voltage out-of-limit risk and balance degree indexes; the load side includes: load loss risk, overload risk and load power supply efficiency;
step 6: and (3) evaluating the multi-view cooperative vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of the information system by utilizing a synergistic effect theory, and establishing a local vulnerability index, a regional vulnerability index and a global vulnerability index system on a spatial scale.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects:
(1) according to the method, a deterministic-stochastic topological structure model of the power distribution network and external disasters is established aiming at the randomness of the external disasters of the power distribution network, so that an analysis result is more consistent with the operation condition of the power distribution network under the disaster condition;
(2) the method integrates the condition of information and physical elements in long-term historical disaster records, the condition of equipment operation time limit and disaster resistance capability coefficient in a short term and the condition of element operation faults when no disaster occurs at present, and determines the information physical element fault probability of multi-time scale synergistic influence under the disaster condition based on the panoramic information of the system, so that the element fault probability is predicted more accurately; meanwhile, the effect of the information system on the power distribution network is considered, an active power distribution network functional group fault probability model considering the effect of the information system is established, and the characteristic of the fusion of the current information physical system is more fully reflected;
(3) when various running states and grid structures of the active power distribution network in the source network load interaction mode are evaluated, the influences of a monitoring host, a switch and a region control unit in an information system are also considered, a vulnerability evaluation system in the source network load interaction mode with the integration of the active power distribution network and the information system is established, the active power distribution network with the consideration of the action of the information system is analyzed from multiple angles, and meanwhile, the synergistic effect between information and a power distribution network is reflected, so that the method has very important practical value;
(4) aiming at the local power supply characteristic and the power transmission efficiency of the active power distribution network and based on a deterministic-random connection weight matrix of the power distribution network and external disasters, the active power balance degree index and the load power supply efficiency index are provided, the defect that the vulnerability of the power distribution network is evaluated from a single-angle physical angle in the prior art is overcome, and the identification precision and the identification effect are improved;
(5) according to the method, the vulnerability indexes of the active power distribution network related to the structure and the vulnerability indexes related to the information system are introduced, the synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of the information system is evaluated by utilizing a synergistic effect theory based on the indexes, the influence of the network frame structure of the power distribution network on the running state and the synergistic action of the information system and the physical system is better analyzed, and the running reliability and the running accuracy of the power distribution network are improved; meanwhile, a local cooperative vulnerability index, a regional cooperative vulnerability index and a global cooperative vulnerability index system on a spatial scale are established, so that the vulnerability of the active power distribution network is evaluated more comprehensively and specifically, a basis is provided for safe and reliable operation of the power distribution network, and an important role is played in preventing major power failure accidents.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment of an active power distribution network in consideration of information system effects;
FIG. 2 is a block diagram of active power distribution network multi-view collaborative vulnerability assessment research considering information system effects;
FIG. 3 is a graph of failure probability for predicting impact of cyber-physical elements under a disaster condition on multiple timescales in accordance with the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of an cyber-physical system interaction model according to the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a functional group failure probability diagram of an cyber-physical system according to the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a vulnerability system diagram under an active power distribution network source load interaction mode.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the present invention. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
According to the invention, the power distribution network with the network structure and the operation state and the information and physical system synergistic effect is subjected to synergistic vulnerability assessment from multiple perspectives of research on the influence of an information physical system and an external disaster on the power distribution network, source network load interaction of an active power distribution network and the information system, a complex network theory, a synergistic effect theory and a risk utility theory, and the research process is shown in FIG. 2.
The invention discloses an active power distribution network multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method considering information system effect, as shown in figure 1, the method comprises the following steps:
step 1: determining the fault probability of the multi-time scale collaborative influence information physical element under the disaster condition based on the panoramic information of the active power distribution network considering the function of the information system, wherein the panoramic information comprises but is not limited to geographic information, external environment information, power grid operation and distribution information and risk and fault information, and as shown in fig. 3, the method comprises the following steps:
step 1.1: the method comprehensively considers the pregnant disaster environment, the interaction of disaster factors and a bearing body, and respectively obtains the element conditions in the long-term historical disaster records of the information element and the physical element, the operation time limit and the disaster resistance coefficient of the power equipment in a short period and the operation fault probability of the element under the current disaster state.
As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, the disaster-pregnant environment includes not only the disaster response capability of the power grid, the disaster data, the physical device parameters, but also the related parameters of the information device; the disaster causing factor considers not only the disaster type, frequency and intensity, but also the attack condition of the information system, the external disaster is not limited to the external natural disaster any more, the information, the network failure and the deliberate attack are also considered, meanwhile, the disaster bearing body also comprises the communication equipment and the information processing equipment, and the panoramic information of the active power distribution network considering the information system function is analyzed in all directions.
Step 1.2: according to the meteorological disaster prediction model and the panoramic information, probability distribution parameters of long-term, short-term and non-disaster-occurring period information and the influence of external disasters in the whole life cycle of the physical element are calculated and considered, so that the outage probability of the element under the disaster condition is obtained, and the influence caused by the disasters is quantitatively analyzed.
In a preferred embodiment of the present invention, long-term, short-term, and disaster-free period information and the influence of external disasters on physical elements during the entire life cycle are combined, and at present, failure prediction is often performed on physical elements, and the failure prediction probability is limited to only the elements in disaster-free periods. The device operation conditions in the whole life cycle of the element in long-term, short-term and non-disaster periods are considered, and the conditions of the elements of the information system are also considered, so that the element failure probability prediction result is more accurate and more practical.
Step 2: and establishing a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model of the active power distribution network and external disasters. As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, an undirected, weighted sparse graph G having N nodes and L edges is obtained by first subjecting an active power distribution network to simplification processing, that is:
G＝(N,L)
defining initial distribution network connection weight matrix W0Of its matrix element wijIs the reactance per unit value of the transmission line between the node i and the node j, wherein i is more than or equal to 1, and N is more than or equal to j
Considering the random influence of single disaster and multi-disaster aggregation on the power distribution network, at the moment, the matrix element wi'jFor the elements of the matrix taking into account the random influence of the disaster, are
Introducing a correction coefficient mu for ensuring the physical characteristics of the deterministic-stochastic connection weight matrix to obtain a deterministic-stochastic connection weight matrix W of the power distribution network and external disastersu
And step 3: on the basis of a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combined model of the power distribution network and external disasters, the fragile source of the active power distribution network system considering the effect of the information system is found out by using the theoretical characteristics of a complex network, the influence of different communication network structures and redundancy degrees on the information system is considered, and the fault conditions of elements related to the physical and information fragile sources in the system are simulated respectively.
As a preferred embodiment of the invention, firstly, the vulnerability of a physical system is searched by utilizing data such as node vulnerability, line improvement betweenness and the like in a complex network theory; then and according to different network communication structures, such as: the star-type, bus-type and ring-shaped lamp topological structure models and the redundancy configuration conditions of the star-type, bus-type and ring-shaped lamp topological structure models are calculated according to the complex network theory, the fragile source of the information system is found out, and data support is provided for the following simulation of the fragile source of the physical information system.
And 4, step 4: considering the influence of the information system effect on the active power distribution network elements, combining the information physical element fault probability influenced by multiple time scales under the disaster condition to obtain the fault probability based on the functional group, and identifying the cascading faults based on the functional group decomposition, as shown in fig. 5, the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 4.1: according to the original information of the information physical element, obtaining the functional state of an information system and the state of a primary system element through non-sequential Monte Carlo sampling;
step 4.2: if the information-power action relation shown in fig. 4 does not exist, the failure probability of the primary element functional group is obtained; in the present embodiment, the functional groups are composed of protected components, such as lines, transformer load outgoing lines, etc., the circuit breakers and the disconnecting switches in the opening state constitute interface components of the functional groups, and the failure probability, i.e. the first-order multiple failure rate, of each functional group is equal to the probability of failure of at least one component in the functional group
In the formula: giRepresents a function group i; pkIs the failure rate of element k.
Step 4.3: if there is an information-electric action relationship, the failure probability of the element function group is obtained after the action of the information system is considered
In this embodiment, the availability of information elements can be performed according to the functions of operation, protection, control, etc. in the actual systemAnd (4) defining.
Of formula (II) to'kTo take into account the availability of components after the functioning of the information system, AkTo override the availability of components for the functional role of the information system,
is the comprehensive availability of information element functions. In this embodiment, the availability of information elements may be defined according to the functions of operation, protection, control, etc. in the actual system.
Step 4.4: the failure probability of the active power distribution network functional group considering the function of the information system is obtained through the analysis
And the fault probability of the fault path is obtained according to the N-k fault path searching model,
in the embodiment, the effect of the information system on the power distribution network is considered, and the characteristic of the fusion of the current information physical system is fully reflected.
And 5: utilize risk utility theory to assess various running state and spatial grid structure under source net lotus interactive mode, wherein the power side includes: the distributed power supply grid connection rate, the emergency power supply, the UPS application rate and the bus fragility; the power distribution network side includes: node fragility, voltage out-of-limit risk and balance degree indexes; the load side includes: loss of load risk, overload risk and load power supply efficiency.
As a preferred embodiment of the invention, when various running states and grid structures of the active power distribution network in the source network load interaction mode are evaluated, the influence of a monitoring host, a switch and a regional control unit in an information system is also considered, a vulnerability evaluation system in the source network load interaction mode with the integration of the active power distribution network and the information system is established, the active power distribution network considering the action of the information system is analyzed from multiple angles, and the invention has important practical value.
The method comprises the following specific steps:
step 5.1: evaluating various operating states and grid structures of the active power distribution network under the source-grid-load interaction mode considering the effect of the information system, for example, fig. 6 shows a vulnerability system under the source-grid-load interaction mode of the active power distribution network, wherein
The power supply side vulnerability index analysis comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps that indexes of grid connection rate of a distributed power supply, emergency power supply, UPS application rate, bus fragility and monitoring host function availability rate are provided;
the comprehensive risk vulnerability indexes of the power distribution network side comprise: node fragility, voltage out-of-limit risk, balance index and switch availability index;
the load side vulnerability index includes: load loss risk, overload risk, load power supply efficiency and regional control unit availability;
step 5.2: the structural vulnerability of the active power distribution network is evaluated by utilizing a complex network theory, and the evaluation indexes comprise: node vulnerability, bus vulnerability;
evaluating the severity of the individual risks of the functional group by using a risk utility theory, wherein the evaluation indexes comprise: voltage out-of-limit risk, loss-of-load risk, overload risk;
step 5.3: based on a deterministic-stochastic connection weight matrix of a power distribution network and external disasters, and aiming at the remarkable characteristic that local power supply of a multi-source power distribution network can reduce active power transmitted to a load by a large power supply through a long-distance line, the active power balance degree of the whole network is defined as follows:
wherein, w'ijFor elements of the matrix, p, taking into account the influence of randomness of the disasterlActive power transmitted for the line;
is the balance degree of the active power of the whole active power distribution network on the transmission distance,
the smaller the active power is, the less the active power is transmitted in a long distance and a large capacity, and the more the active power is distributed uniformly in the whole network.
Step 5.4: according to the power transmission efficiency of the active power distribution network, the power generation capacity is considered, and the influence effect of the generator on the load is considered to be rapidly attenuated along with the increase of the distance, so that the load power supply efficiency of a load node i is defined as follows:
in the formula: dij(i∈VD,j∈VG) Is the shortest electrical path between a load node i and a power generation node j based on a deterministic-stochastic topology combined model, VDNumber of load nodes, VGNumber of generator nodes, PDiIs the active load capacity, P, of the load node iGjIs the active installed capacity of the power generation node j;
step 5.5, the vulnerability index α (l) related to the active power distribution network system structure is obtainedi) Considering that node importance and line improvement betweenness indexes are closely related to the structure of the power distribution network system, in order to better evaluate the vulnerability of the power distribution network in the grid structure aspect, a vulnerability index α (l) related to the active power distribution network structure is introducedi)，
In the formula:
importance of the ith node, MiIs a section of the ith nodeDot number of degrees, PiIs the injection power characteristic of the i-th node, k1、k2Are weights, and k1+k2＝1，SbaseIs the system reference power; b (m, n) ═ max (B (m, i), B (j, n)) is the improvement betweenness of the lines, and (m, i), (j, n) are all lines connected to node m and node n, respectively;
representing the number of the function groups; max { IiB (m, n) } is the highest structural weakness in the functional group, α, β are weights, and α + β is 1.
Step 5.6: determining a vulnerability indicator delta (l) associated with an information systemi) In order to better evaluate the vulnerability of the power distribution network in terms of information systems, a vulnerability index delta (l) related to the information system of the active power distribution network is introducedi)，
δ(li)＝Afz×Afj×Afq
In the formula: a. thefzFor monitoring the availability of functions of the host, AfjFor the availability of functions of the switch, AfqThe availability of the functions of the area control unit.
Step 6: the method comprises the following steps of evaluating multi-view cooperative vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of an information system by utilizing a synergistic effect theory, and establishing a local vulnerability index, a regional vulnerability index and a global vulnerability index system on a spatial scale, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
step 6.1: the method comprises the following steps of utilizing a synergistic effect theory to evaluate the multi-view synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, and establishing an evaluation model of the multi-view synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of the information system according to the synergistic effects between the structure and the state of the system and between the information and a physical system:
Vxti＝Vxyi+Vxwi＝α(li)R(Xt,f)γ+α(li)δ(li)η
in the formula: vxyiCoordinating vulnerability indexes for system structure and operation state; vxwiCoordinating vulnerability indicators for information and physical systems; vxtiα (l) for considering the vulnerability index of the system structure and operation state cooperation and the information and physical system cooperationi) Is the vulnerability index related to the system structure; r (X)t,f) For risk indicators mainly related to the operational state of the system, Xt,fFor the mode of operation at time t, pr(Ri) For the ith uncertainty disturbance RiThe possibility of the occurrence of the above-mentioned problems,
is at RiSeverity of system loss under disturbance, wiThe fault loss value is a corresponding index; gamma is a correlation factor of structure and state, and is taken as gamma as P/PmaxP is the real-time power, PmaxThe maximum transmission power of the line is obtained, η is the correlation factor of information and physics, and the informatization configuration degree of the active power distribution network is obtained.
In the embodiment, the system structure and the operation state are all correlated, a synergistic effect exists, and the synergistic effect is strongest when the system is in full-load operation, so that an active power distribution network synergistic vulnerability evaluation model considering the action of an information system is provided according to the synergistic effect between the system structure and the state and between the information and a physical system.
Step 6.2: and establishing a local cooperative vulnerability index, a regional cooperative vulnerability index and a global cooperative vulnerability index system on a spatial scale. In the present embodiment, the vulnerability index V is locally coordinatedlocalMainly embodies the local supporting function of the active power distribution network to the load, and cooperates with the vulnerability index VareaMainly reflects the fragility degree in a certain formulated area, and a global area fragility degree index VtotalThe vulnerability of an active power distribution network taking into account the effects of an information system is evaluated primarily as a whole, wherein
In the formula: vxtiCoordinating the vulnerability index for the active power distribution network considering the information system effect; n isDThe total number of the load nodes is; eiPower supply efficiency for the load of node i; m is the total number of the nodes of the power grid; lambda [ alpha ]lIs the vulnerability index of the fault path; k is a radical of1、k2Are weights, and k1+k2＝1；nLThe number of nodes passed by the fault path; lambda [ alpha ]LjFor each node's vulnerability index in the failure path, max { λLjThe highest node vulnerability on the failure path.
Finally, it should be noted that: the above embodiments are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, and not to limit the same; while the invention has been described in detail and with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some or all of the technical features may be equivalently replaced; and the modifications or the substitutions do not make the essence of the corresponding technical solutions depart from the scope of the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. The active power distribution network multi-view cooperative vulnerability assessment method considering the information system effect is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1: determining the fault probability of a multi-time scale collaborative influence information physical element under a disaster condition based on panoramic information of an active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, wherein the panoramic information comprises geographic information, external environment information, power grid operation and distribution information, risk and fault information;
step 2: establishing a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model of the active power distribution network and external disasters, wherein the deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model comprises the following steps:
G＝(N,L)
wherein G is a nondirectional and authorized sparse graph with N nodes and L edges of the power distribution network after simplification processing, and W is0Is a power distribution network connection weight matrix, a matrix element wijIs a reactance per unit value of the transmission line between the node i and the node j, i is more than or equal to 1, j is less than or equal to N, w'ijThe reactance per unit value of the transmission line between the node i and the node j is considered under the influence of disaster randomness; dhThe influence coefficient of the corresponding type of disaster on the power distribution network, k is the number of disaster types considering single disaster and multi-disaster aggregation condition, WμThe method comprises the steps that a deterministic-random connection weight matrix for a power distribution network and an external disaster is obtained, and mu is a correction coefficient for ensuring the physical characteristics of the deterministic-random connection weight matrix;
and step 3: on the basis of a deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination model of the power distribution network and external disasters, finding out an active power distribution network system fragile source considering the action of an information system by using the theoretical characteristics of a complex network, simultaneously considering the influence of different communication network structures and redundancy degrees on the information system, and respectively simulating the fault conditions of elements related to physical and information fragile sources in the system;
and 4, step 4: considering the influence of the information system action on the active power distribution network elements, combining the information physical element fault probability influenced by multiple time scales under the disaster condition to obtain the fault probability based on the functional groups, and performing cascading fault identification based on functional group decomposition;
and 5: utilize risk utility theory to evaluate various running state and spatial grid structure under source net lotus interactive mode, include:
step 5.1: evaluating various operating states and grid structures of an active power distribution network in a source-grid-load interaction mode taking into account the effect of an information system, wherein
The power supply side vulnerability index analysis comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps that indexes of grid connection rate of a distributed power supply, emergency power supply, UPS application rate, bus fragility and monitoring host function availability rate are provided;
the comprehensive risk vulnerability indexes of the power distribution network side comprise: node fragility, voltage out-of-limit risk, balance index and switch availability index;
the load side vulnerability index includes: load loss risk, overload risk, load power supply efficiency and regional control unit availability;
step 5.2: the structural vulnerability of the active power distribution network is evaluated by utilizing a complex network theory, and the evaluation indexes comprise: node vulnerability, bus vulnerability;
evaluating the severity of the individual risks of the functional group by using a risk utility theory, wherein the evaluation indexes comprise: voltage out-of-limit risk, loss-of-load risk, overload risk;
step 5.3: based on a deterministic-stochastic connection weight matrix of a power distribution network and external disasters, and aiming at the remarkable characteristic that local power supply of a multi-source power distribution network can reduce active power transmitted to a load by a large power supply through a long-distance line, the active power balance degree of the whole network is defined as follows:
wherein, w'ijFor elements of the matrix, p, taking into account the influence of randomness of the disasterlThe active power transmitted by the line is represented by l, which is an impedance per unit value;
step 5.4: considering both the power generation capacity and the attenuation of the effect of the generator on the load influence, analyzing the power transmission efficiency of the active power distribution network, and defining the load power supply efficiency of a load node i as follows:
in the formula: dijLoad node i and power generation node based on deterministic-stochastic topological structure combination modelThe shortest electrical path between j, where i ∈ VD,j∈VG，PDiIs the active load capacity, P, of the load node iGiActive installed capacity, V, for power generation node iDIs the number of load nodes, VGIs the number of generator nodes;
step 5.5, the vulnerability index α (l) related to the active power distribution network system structure is obtainedi)
In the formula:
importance of the ith node, MiDegree of node of ith node, PiIs the injection power characteristic of the i-th node, k1、k2Are weights, and k1+k2＝1，SbaseIs the system reference power; b (m, n) ═ max (B (m, i), B (j, n)) is the improvement betweenness of the lines, and (m, i), (j, n) are all lines connected to node m and node n, respectively;
representing the number of the function groups; max { IiB (m, n) } is the highest structural vulnerability in the functional group, α, β are weights, and α + β is 1;
step 5.6: determining a vulnerability indicator delta (l) associated with an information systemi)
δ(li)＝Afz×Afj×Afq
In the formula: a. thefzFor monitoring the availability of functions of the host, AfjFor the availability of functions of the switch, AfqIs the function availability of the area control unit;
step 6: the method comprises the steps of utilizing a synergistic effect theory to evaluate multi-view synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, and establishing a local vulnerability index, a regional vulnerability index and a global vulnerability index system on a spatial scale, wherein the method comprises the following steps:
step 6.1: the method comprises the following steps of utilizing a synergistic effect theory to evaluate the multi-view synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of an information system, and establishing an evaluation model of the multi-view synergistic vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the action of the information system according to the synergistic effects between the structure and the state of the system and between the information and a physical system:
Vxti＝Vxyi+Vxwi＝α(li)R(Xt,f)γ+α(li)δ(li)η
in the formula: vxyiCoordinating vulnerability indexes for system structure and operation state; vxwiCoordinating vulnerability indicators for information and physical systems; vxtiα (l) for considering the vulnerability index of the system structure and operation state cooperation and the information and physical system cooperationi) Is the vulnerability index related to the system structure; r (X)t,f) For risk indicators relating to the operating state of the system, Xt,fFor the mode of operation at time t, pr(Ri) For the ith uncertainty disturbance RiThe possibility of the occurrence of the above-mentioned problems,
is at RiSeverity of system loss under disturbance, wiThe fault loss value is a corresponding index; gamma is a correlation factor of structure and state, and is taken as gamma as P/PmaxP is the real-time power, Pmaxη is the correlation factor between information and physics, and is the informatization configuration degree of the active power distribution network,
step 6.2: establishing a local cooperative vulnerability index, a regional cooperative vulnerability index and a global cooperative vulnerability index system on a spatial scale; local synergistic vulnerability index VlocalThe local supporting effect of the active power distribution network on the load is reflected, and the regional cooperative vulnerability index VareaA global area vulnerability index V for representing the vulnerability in a specified areatotalEvaluating the vulnerability of an active power distribution network in general, taking into account the effect of the information system, wherein
In the formula: vxtiThe vulnerability index of the system structure and the operation state cooperation and the information and physical system cooperation is considered; n isDThe total number of the load nodes is; eiPower supply efficiency for the load of node i; m is the total number of the nodes of the power grid; lambda [ alpha ]lIs the vulnerability index of the fault path; k is a radical of1、k2Are weights, and k1+k2＝1；nLThe number of nodes passed by the fault path; lambda [ alpha ]LjFor each node's vulnerability index in the failure path, max { λLjThe highest node vulnerability on the failure path.
2. The method for evaluating the multi-view cooperative vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the information system role according to claim 1, wherein the step 1 comprises the following steps:
step 1.1: comprehensively considering the pregnant disaster environment, the interaction of disaster factors and a bearing body, and respectively obtaining the element conditions in the long-term historical disaster records of the information element and the physical element, the operation time limit and the disaster resistance coefficient of the power equipment in a short period and the operation fault probability of the element under the current disaster state;
step 1.2: according to the meteorological disaster prediction model and the panoramic information, probability distribution parameters of long-term, short-term and non-disaster-occurring period information and the influence of external disasters in the whole life cycle of the physical element are calculated and considered, so that the outage probability of the element under the disaster condition is obtained, and the influence caused by the disasters is quantitatively analyzed.
3. The method for evaluating the multi-view cooperative vulnerability of the active power distribution network considering the information system role according to claim 1, wherein the step 4 comprises the following steps:
step 4.1: according to the information of the information physical element, obtaining the functional state of the information system and the state of the primary system element through non-sequential Monte Carlo sampling;
step 4.2: judging whether an information-power action relation exists according to the information and the state of the physical element, and if not, solving the failure probability of the primary element functional group; the functional groups are composed of protected elements, and the failure probability, i.e. the first-order multiple failure rate, of each functional group is equal to the probability of failure of at least one element in the functional group
In the formula: giRepresents a function group i; pKIs the failure rate of element K;
step 4.3: if there is an information-electric action relationship, the failure probability of the element function group is obtained after the action of the information system is considered
Of formula (II) to'kTo take into account the availability of components after the functioning of the information system, AkTo do not consider the letterThe availability of components acting on the system functions,
a comprehensive availability of information element functions;
step 4.4: the failure probability of the active power distribution network functional group considering the function of the information system is obtained through the analysis
And obtaining the fault probability of the fault path according to the N-k fault path search model.
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