CN107204615A - A kind of method and system for realizing power prediction - Google Patents
A kind of method and system for realizing power prediction Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN107204615A CN107204615A CN201710437884.0A CN201710437884A CN107204615A CN 107204615 A CN107204615 A CN 107204615A CN 201710437884 A CN201710437884 A CN 201710437884A CN 107204615 A CN107204615 A CN 107204615A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- data
- power
- weather prognosis
- generated power
- forecasting
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 31
- 238000004393 prognosis Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 68
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 20
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 18
- 230000001932 seasonal effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 14
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000012805 post-processing Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000004800 variational method Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 235000006508 Nelumbo nucifera Nutrition 0.000 claims 1
- 240000002853 Nelumbo nucifera Species 0.000 claims 1
- 235000006510 Nelumbo pentapetala Nutrition 0.000 claims 1
- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 abstract description 18
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 description 5
- 238000007796 conventional method Methods 0.000 description 4
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 4
- 230000001537 neural effect Effects 0.000 description 4
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 3
- 230000006870 function Effects 0.000 description 3
- 238000003860 storage Methods 0.000 description 3
- 239000012530 fluid Substances 0.000 description 2
- 238000003672 processing method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000033228 biological regulation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000003912 environmental pollution Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007726 management method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012986 modification Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004048 modification Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006641 stabilisation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011105 stabilization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012546 transfer Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000005303 weighing Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Energy or water supply
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/003—Load forecast, e.g. methods or systems for forecasting future load demand
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A30/00—Adapting or protecting infrastructure or their operation
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Power Engineering (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Public Health (AREA)
- Water Supply & Treatment (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
- Supply And Distribution Of Alternating Current (AREA)
Abstract
A kind of method and system for realizing power prediction, including：Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；Input need to carry out the device parameter and the weather prognosis data of acquisition of the generating equipment of generated power forecasting in default generated power forecasting model, and analysis calculating obtains generated power forecasting result；User power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data obtained and other environmental factor information are input in default load power forecast model, analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.The embodiment of the present invention is by calculating the load power and generated power forecasting result that obtain, reduce influence of the error of weather prognosis result presence to generating electricity and load power is predicted, the accuracy of power prediction is improved, the balance of generation of electricity by new energy and workload demand is improved.
Description
Technical field
Present document relates to but be not limited to new energy technology, espespecially a kind of method and system for realizing power prediction.
Background technology
New energy is to include the unconventional energy resource such as wind energy, solar energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy, compares the resource of traditional energy
The features such as finite sum environmental pollution, with advantages such as aboundresources recyclabilities so that new energy development is continued to develop with utilizing.
The installed capacity of the new energy such as wind energy, solar energy and grid-connected proportion rise year by year, and by the end of the year 2015, wind-force, solar energy etc. are new
The energy generates electricity about 1.72 hundred million kilowatts.
With the development of generation of electricity by new energy industry, new-energy grid-connected scale is increasing, and unstable along with new energy interval
Qualitative, anti-peak regulation and the features such as influenceed big by factor of natural environment such as weather；Simultaneously as new energy development is also in starting
The deviation of stage, new energy development planning and the contradiction in market of dissolving, generation of electricity by new energy prediction and actual load electricity, causes light
The problems such as volt production capacity surplus, the fluctuation of power network and peak capacity remaining increase protrudes.
In order to realize that new forms of energy resource is distributed rationally, make generation of electricity by new energy and the fluctuation of workload demand real between remote
Now balance is, it is necessary to set up generation of electricity by new energy and the load power forecasting system of stabilization, high efficiency and pinpoint accuracy.
The content of the invention
The following is the general introduction of the theme to being described in detail herein.This general introduction is not to limit the protection model of claim
Enclose.
The embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of method and system for realizing power prediction, it is possible to increase generate electricity pre- with load power
The balance of the accuracy of survey, lifting generation of electricity by new energy and workload demand.
The embodiments of the invention provide a kind of method for realizing power prediction, including：
Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；
Input need to carry out the device parameter of the generating equipment of generated power forecasting in default generated power forecasting model
And the weather prognosis data obtained, analyze calculating and obtain generated power forecasting result；
User power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data obtained and other environmental factor information are input to default load work(
In rate forecast model, analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.Optionally,
It is described to be included by regional ensemble Forecast Mode computing acquisition weather prognosis data：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, ten or more than ten are run in advance
Member's operation is reported, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and obtain each by post processing
The corresponding weather prognosis data in power station.Optionally, the meteorological measuring includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
Optionally, methods described also includes：
Pass through history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power shadow
The factor of sound adjusts the generated power forecasting model.
By the meteorological data of history, history actual load power data and other data messages, the load work(is adjusted
Rate forecast model；
Wherein, other described data messages include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
On the other hand, the embodiment of the present invention also provides a kind of system for realizing generated power forecasting, including：
Weather prognosis unit, generated power forecasting unit, load power predicting unit；Wherein, weather prognosis unit is used for：
Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；
Generated power forecasting unit is used for：Input need to carry out generated power forecasting in default generated power forecasting model
Generating equipment device parameter and the weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating obtain generated power forecasting result；
Load power predicting unit is used for：By user power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data and other environmental factors that obtain
Information is input in default load power forecast model, and analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.Optionally, it is described meteorological pre-
Survey unit specifically for：
The weather prognosis unit specifically for：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, ten or more than ten are run in advance
Member's operation is reported, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and obtain each by post processing
The corresponding weather prognosis data in power station.
Optionally, the meteorological measuring includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
Optionally, the system also includes adjustment unit, and adjustment unit is used for：
Pass through history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power shadow
The factor of sound adjusts the generated power forecasting model；
By history meteorological data, history actual load power data and other data messages, the load power is adjusted
Forecast model；
Wherein, other described data messages include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
Compared with correlation technique, technical scheme includes：
Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；It is defeated in default generated power forecasting model
Enter the device parameter for the generating equipment that need to carry out generated power forecasting and the weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating is generated electricity
Power prediction result；User power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data obtained and other environmental factor information are input to default
In load power forecast model, analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；Wherein, other described environmental factors include
Geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.The embodiment of the present invention is by calculating the load power obtained and generated power forecasting knot
Really, influence of the error of weather prognosis result presence to generating electricity and load power is predicted is reduced, the standard of power prediction is improved
True property, improves the balance of generation of electricity by new energy and workload demand.
Other features and advantages of the present invention will be illustrated in the following description, also, partly becomes from specification
Obtain it is clear that or being understood by implementing the present invention.The purpose of the present invention and other advantages can be by specification, rights
Specifically noted structure is realized and obtained in claim and accompanying drawing.
Brief description of the drawings
Accompanying drawing is used for providing further understanding technical solution of the present invention, and constitutes a part for specification, with this
The embodiment of application is used to explain technical scheme together, does not constitute the limitation to technical solution of the present invention.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart for the method that the embodiment of the present invention realizes power prediction；
Fig. 2 is the structured flowchart for the device that the embodiment of the present invention realizes power prediction；
Fig. 3 is the hardware composition structured flowchart for the system that the embodiment of the present invention one realizes power prediction；
Fig. 4 is the software composition structured flowchart for the system that the embodiment of the present invention further realizes power prediction.
Embodiment
For the object, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention are more clearly understood, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing to the present invention
Embodiment be described in detail.It should be noted that in the case where not conflicting, in the embodiment and embodiment in the application
Feature can mutually be combined.
Can be in the computer system of such as one group computer executable instructions the step of the flow of accompanying drawing is illustrated
Perform.And, although logical order is shown in flow charts, but in some cases, can be with suitable different from herein
Sequence performs shown or described step.
Fig. 1 is the flow chart for the method that the embodiment of the present invention realizes power prediction, as shown in figure 1, including：
Step 100, pass through the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode obtain weather prognosis data；
It should be noted that regional ensemble Forecast Mode can be in correlation technique weather forecast pattern (WRF) take
Acquisition is built, the mode of building can be needed the weather prognosis data obtained based on the embodiment of the present invention, be led to by those skilled in the art
Cross existing processing mode and realize that therefore not to repeat here.
Step 101, in default generated power forecasting model input need to carry out the generating equipment of generated power forecasting
Device parameter and the weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating obtain generated power forecasting result；
It should be noted that generated power forecasting of embodiment of the present invention model can be trained by neural net method
The Statistical Prediction Model arrived, training Statistical Prediction Model is the conventional techniques of those skilled in the art, be will not be described here.
Step 102, by user power utilization plan, obtain weather prognosis data and other environmental factor information be input to it is default
Load power forecast model in, analysis, which is calculated, obtains load power in preset duration.
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
It should be noted that load power of embodiment of the present invention forecast model can be trained by neural net method
The Statistical Prediction Model arrived, training Statistical Prediction Model is the conventional techniques of those skilled in the art, be will not be described here.
In addition, the weather prognosis data that the embodiment of the present invention is obtained can be the weather prognosis data of three days to seven days, corresponding three days
Predicted the outcome to the generated outputs of seven days and load power；The weather prognosis data that the embodiment of the present invention is obtained can also be one day
The weather prognosis data of left and right, the generated output and load power of corresponding one day or so predict the outcome；It can also be several
Weather prognosis data, generated output and the load power of hour (for example, 4 hours) predicts the outcome；
The embodiment of the present invention provides generated output that is high-quality, becoming more meticulous by above-mentioned forecasting system and load power is predicted
As a result, it is possible to generate electricity, dispatching of power netwoks and need for electricity provide guidance, putting down for generation of electricity by new energy and workload demand is advantageously implemented
Weighing apparatus.
Optionally, the embodiment of the present invention obtains weather prognosis data by regional ensemble Forecast Mode simulation trial and included：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
It should be noted that assimilation of the embodiment of the present invention can use four-dimensional variational Assimilation method, it is by weather forecast
Data Assimilation (WRFDA) in pattern WRF is realized；The embodiment of the present invention can be accurately entered more by assimilation processing
Data, are used for weather prognosis process.
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, ten or more than ten are run in advance
Member's operation is reported, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
It should be noted that the forecast of DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM member's operation is to be based on WRF patterns, each forecast member passes through pattern
Physical parameter, the difference in input data source obtain forecast group arranged side by side, and the operation result of each forecast member passes through statistical analysis
Obtain average.
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and obtain each by post processing
The corresponding weather prognosis data in power station.
It should be noted that NO emissions reduction of the embodiment of the present invention, which is calculated, can borrow computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software, than
Such as fluent, (fluent is popular commercial CFD code bag in the world at present, and every and fluid, heat transfer and chemistry are anti-
Relevant industry should be waited to can be used), the meteorological data that WRF is predicted obtains higher with reference to anemometer tower data and terrain data
The weather prognosis data of resolution ratio.
Optionally, meteorological measuring of the embodiment of the present invention includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
It should be noted that present invention method can also include obtaining and/or storing：Meteorological measuring, set
Standby parameter, weather prognosis data, generated power forecasting result, history actual load power data, history actual generation power are pre-
Survey data, user power utilization planning data, environmental factor information etc..The embodiment of the present invention can also be to acquisition or storage data
Handled with existing data processing method in correlation technique, such as, with reference to weather prognosis data of the related data to acquisition
Filtered.
Optionally, present invention method also includes：
Pass through history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power shadow
The factor of sound adjusts the generated power forecasting model；
By history meteorological data, history actual load power data and other data messages etc., the load work(is adjusted
Rate forecast model.
It should be noted that power influence factor can be the relevant parameter that those skilled in the art's analysis is determined；Pass through
History meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power influence factor adjustment hair
Electrical power forecast model can include：The weight coefficient or correction parameter of generated power forecasting model are carried out by emulation mode
Amendment, can use existing implementation in correlation technique to implement.
Compared with correlation technique, technical scheme includes：Obtain meteorological pre- by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode
Survey data；In default generated power forecasting model input need to carry out generated power forecasting generating equipment device parameter and
The weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating obtains generated power forecasting result；By user power utilization plan, the weather prognosis obtained
Data and other environmental factor information are input in default load power forecast model, and analysis is calculated and obtained in preset duration
Load power；Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.The embodiment of the present invention passes through
The load power and generated power forecasting result obtained is calculated, the error of weather prognosis result presence is reduced to generating and load
The influence of power prediction, improves the accuracy of power prediction, improves the balance of generation of electricity by new energy and workload demand.
Fig. 2 is the structured flowchart for the system that the embodiment of the present invention realizes power prediction, as shown in Fig. 2 including：Weather prognosis
Unit, generated power forecasting unit, load power predicting unit；Wherein,
Weather prognosis unit is used for：Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；
It should be noted that regional ensemble Forecast Mode can be in correlation technique weather forecast pattern (WRF) take
Acquisition is built, the mode of building can be needed the weather prognosis data obtained based on the embodiment of the present invention, be led to by those skilled in the art
Cross existing processing mode and realize that therefore not to repeat here.
Optionally, the weather prognosis unit specifically for：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, ten or more than ten are run in advance
Member's operation is reported, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and obtain each by post processing
The corresponding weather prognosis data in power station.
Generated power forecasting unit is used for：Input need to carry out generated power forecasting in default generated power forecasting model
Generating equipment device parameter and the weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating obtain generated power forecasting result；
It should be noted that generated power forecasting of embodiment of the present invention model can be trained by neural net method
The Statistical Prediction Model arrived, training Statistical Prediction Model is the conventional techniques of those skilled in the art, be will not be described here.
Load power predicting unit is used for：By user power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data and other environmental factors that obtain
Information is input in default load power forecast model, and analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
It should be noted that load forecasting model of the embodiment of the present invention can be obtained by neural net method training
Statistical Prediction Model, training Statistical Prediction Model is the conventional techniques of those skilled in the art, be will not be described here.Separately
Outside, the weather prognosis data that the embodiment of the present invention is obtained can be the weather prognosis data of three days to seven days, and corresponding three days arrive
The generated power forecasting result and load power of seven days；The weather prognosis data that the embodiment of the present invention is obtained can also be one day left side
Right weather prognosis data, the generated power forecasting result and load power of corresponding one day or so；It can also be as dry small
When (for example, 4 hours) weather prognosis data, generated power forecasting result and load power；
Optionally, meteorological measuring includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
Optionally, weather prognosis unit described in the embodiment of the present invention specifically for：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, ten or more than ten are run in advance
Member's operation is reported, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and obtain each by post processing
The corresponding weather prognosis data in power station.
It should be noted that present invention method can also include obtaining and/or storing：Meteorological measuring, set
Standby parameter, weather prognosis data, generated power forecasting result, historical load data, user power utilization planning data, environmental factor letter
Breath etc..The embodiment of the present invention can also be carried out to existing data processing method in acquisition or storage data and correlation technique
The weather prognosis data of acquisition for example, with reference to related data are filtered by processing.
Optionally, system of the embodiment of the present invention, which also includes system, also includes adjustment unit, and adjustment unit is used for：
Pass through history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power shadow
The factor of sound adjusts the generated power forecasting model；
By history meteorological data, history actual load power data and other data messages, the load power is adjusted
Forecast model；
Wherein, other described data messages include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
Fig. 3 is the hardware composition structured flowchart for the system that the embodiment of the present invention one realizes power prediction, as shown in figure 3, being
Calculate node in system includes：Central processing unit (CPU) fat node, the thin nodes of CPU and graphics processor (GPU) node；Its
In, cpu node passes through high bandwidth, the infinite bandwidth technology of low latency using high primary frequency and the intensive node of core
(Infiniband) each calculate node is connected in shared-file system by network so that the application performance of the forecasting system reaches
It is optimal, contacting between user terminal and server platform is set up by Ethernet, also included in composition structured flowchart：Management section
Point, login node and memory node.Concrete model at this to hardware device is not limited.
Fig. 4 is the software composition structured flowchart for the system that the embodiment of the present invention further realizes power prediction, as shown in figure 4,
Administrative center, data center, weather prognosis unit, generated power forecasting unit and load power predicting unit can be included；Its
In,
Administrative center controls the normal operation of each unit, by sending instructions to data center, control data center to its
His unit sends and collected data.Weather prognosis unit, generated power forecasting unit and load power predicting unit are docked respectively
The data received are analyzed and processed.
One of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that all or part of step in the above method can be instructed by program
Related hardware (such as processor) is completed, and described program can be stored in computer-readable recording medium, such as read-only storage,
Disk or CD etc..Alternatively, all or part of step of above-described embodiment can also use one or more integrated circuits
Realize.Correspondingly, each module/unit in above-described embodiment can be realized in the form of hardware, for example, pass through integrated electricity
Realize its corresponding function in road, it would however also be possible to employ the form of software function module is realized, for example, be stored in by computing device
Program/instruction in memory realizes its corresponding function.The present invention is not restricted to the hardware and software of any particular form
With reference to.
Although disclosed herein embodiment as above, described content be only readily appreciate the present invention and use
Embodiment, is not limited to the present invention.Technical staff in any art of the present invention, is taken off not departing from the present invention
On the premise of the spirit and scope of dew, any modification and change, but the present invention can be carried out in the form and details of implementation
Scope of patent protection, still should be subject to the scope of the claims as defined in the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. a kind of method for realizing power prediction, it is characterised in that including：
Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；
Input need to carry out the device parameter of the generating equipment of generated power forecasting and obtain in default generated power forecasting model
The weather prognosis data obtained, analysis calculating obtains generated power forecasting result；
User power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data obtained and other environmental factor information are input to default load power pre-
Survey in model, analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
2. according to the method described in claim 1, it is characterised in that described to obtain meteorological by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode
Prediction data includes：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, operation ten or more than ten is forecast into
Member's operation, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and each generating is obtained by post processing
Stand corresponding weather prognosis data.
3. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that the meteorological measuring includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
4. method according to claim 1 or 2, it is characterised in that methods described also includes：
By history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power influence because
The element adjustment generated power forecasting model；
By history meteorological data, history actual load power data and other data messages, the load power prediction is adjusted
Model；
Wherein, other described data messages include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
5. a kind of system for realizing power prediction, it is characterised in that including：It is weather prognosis unit, generated power forecasting unit, negative
Lotus power estimation unit；Wherein,
Weather prognosis unit is used for：Weather prognosis data are obtained by the computing of regional ensemble Forecast Mode；
Generated power forecasting unit is used for：Input need to carry out the hair of generated power forecasting in default generated power forecasting model
The device parameter of electric equipment and the weather prognosis data of acquisition, analysis calculating obtain generated power forecasting result；
Load power predicting unit is used for：By user power utilization plan, the weather prognosis data and other environmental factor information that obtain
It is input in default load power forecast model, analysis calculates the load power obtained in preset duration；
Wherein, other described environmental factors include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
6. system according to claim 5, it is characterised in that the weather prognosis unit specifically for：
Assimilate meteorological measuring using four-dimensional variational method；
Using default DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM pattern and the ambient field of assimilation meteorological measuring, operation ten or more than ten is forecast into
Member's operation, statistical average respectively forecasts that member predicts the outcome；
The progress NO emissions reduction calculating that predicts the outcome of each forecast member obtained to statistical average, and each generating is obtained by post processing
Stand corresponding weather prognosis data.
7. the system according to claim 5 or 6, it is characterised in that the meteorological measuring includes：
Weather monitoring station data, satellite data, irradiance data, anemometer tower data.
8. the system according to claim 5 or 6, it is characterised in that the system also includes adjustment unit, adjustment unit is used
In：
By history meteorological data, history actual generation power data, the device parameter of generating equipment, and/or power influence because
The element adjustment generated power forecasting model；
By history meteorological data, history actual load power data and other data messages, the load power prediction is adjusted
Model；
Wherein, other described data messages include geographical position, features of terrain, seasonal characteristic.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710437884.0A CN107204615B (en) | 2017-06-12 | 2017-06-12 | Method and system for realizing power prediction |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710437884.0A CN107204615B (en) | 2017-06-12 | 2017-06-12 | Method and system for realizing power prediction |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107204615A true CN107204615A (en) | 2017-09-26 |
| CN107204615B CN107204615B (en) | 2020-02-28 |
Family
ID=59907460
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710437884.0A Active CN107204615B (en) | 2017-06-12 | 2017-06-12 | Method and system for realizing power prediction |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN107204615B (en) |
Cited By (8)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108171363A (en) * | 2017-12-13 | 2018-06-15 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | The Forecasting Methodology and device of photo-thermal power generation power |
| CN108256665A (en) * | 2017-12-01 | 2018-07-06 | 武汉华信联创技术工程有限公司 | A kind of new energy power station meteorology integrated service system and method |
| CN112149349A (en) * | 2020-09-21 | 2020-12-29 | 河海大学 | Typhoon path forecasting method based on deep neural network |
| CN112615366A (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2021-04-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Photovoltaic power sudden change prediction method and system |
| WO2021179698A1 (en) * | 2020-03-12 | 2021-09-16 | 深圳前海微众银行股份有限公司 | Power generation capacity prediction method, apparatus and device, and computer-readable storage medium |
| CN114236643A (en) * | 2021-12-17 | 2022-03-25 | 中国平安财产保险股份有限公司 | Weather forecasting system based weather forecasting method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN114442704A (en) * | 2021-12-31 | 2022-05-06 | 华能山东发电有限公司 | Intelligent power production monitoring method and system based on big data |
| CN114718808A (en) * | 2022-03-31 | 2022-07-08 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Fan control method and system |
Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103996087A (en) * | 2014-06-09 | 2014-08-20 | 北京东润环能科技股份有限公司 | Method and system for forecasting new energy power generation power |
| CN104269849A (en) * | 2014-10-17 | 2015-01-07 | 国家电网公司 | Energy managing method and system based on building photovoltaic micro-grid |
| CN104318332A (en) * | 2014-10-29 | 2015-01-28 | 国家电网公司 | Power load predicting method and device |
| CN105303263A (en) * | 2015-11-16 | 2016-02-03 | 深圳合纵能源技术有限公司 | Load prediction system of regional power grid and method thereof |
-
2017
- 2017-06-12 CN CN201710437884.0A patent/CN107204615B/en active Active
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN103996087A (en) * | 2014-06-09 | 2014-08-20 | 北京东润环能科技股份有限公司 | Method and system for forecasting new energy power generation power |
| CN104269849A (en) * | 2014-10-17 | 2015-01-07 | 国家电网公司 | Energy managing method and system based on building photovoltaic micro-grid |
| CN104318332A (en) * | 2014-10-29 | 2015-01-28 | 国家电网公司 | Power load predicting method and device |
| CN105303263A (en) * | 2015-11-16 | 2016-02-03 | 深圳合纵能源技术有限公司 | Load prediction system of regional power grid and method thereof |
Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108256665A (en) * | 2017-12-01 | 2018-07-06 | 武汉华信联创技术工程有限公司 | A kind of new energy power station meteorology integrated service system and method |
| CN108171363A (en) * | 2017-12-13 | 2018-06-15 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | The Forecasting Methodology and device of photo-thermal power generation power |
| WO2021179698A1 (en) * | 2020-03-12 | 2021-09-16 | 深圳前海微众银行股份有限公司 | Power generation capacity prediction method, apparatus and device, and computer-readable storage medium |
| CN112149349A (en) * | 2020-09-21 | 2020-12-29 | 河海大学 | Typhoon path forecasting method based on deep neural network |
| CN112615366A (en) * | 2020-12-08 | 2021-04-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Photovoltaic power sudden change prediction method and system |
| CN114236643A (en) * | 2021-12-17 | 2022-03-25 | 中国平安财产保险股份有限公司 | Weather forecasting system based weather forecasting method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN114236643B (en) * | 2021-12-17 | 2023-06-20 | 中国平安财产保险股份有限公司 | Weather forecast method, device, equipment and medium based on weather forecast system |
| CN114442704A (en) * | 2021-12-31 | 2022-05-06 | 华能山东发电有限公司 | Intelligent power production monitoring method and system based on big data |
| CN114718808A (en) * | 2022-03-31 | 2022-07-08 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Fan control method and system |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN107204615B (en) | 2020-02-28 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN107204615A (en) | A kind of method and system for realizing power prediction | |
| CN103390116B (en) | Use the photovoltaic power station power generation power forecasting method of stepping mode | |
| Wang et al. | Risk-based admissibility assessment of wind generation integrated into a bulk power system | |
| CN103489038A (en) | Photovoltaic ultra-short-term power prediction method based on LM-BP neural network | |
| CN106503833A (en) | Photovoltaic generation short term power rolling forecast method based on algorithm of support vector machine | |
| CN117578409A (en) | Multi-energy complementary optimization scheduling method and system in power market environment | |
| CN115689017A (en) | Photovoltaic power generation capacity prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium | |
| CN112072643A (en) | Light-storage system online scheduling method based on depth certainty gradient strategy | |
| CN112101626A (en) | Distributed photovoltaic power generation power prediction method and system | |
| CN115759467A (en) | Time-division integrated learning photovoltaic prediction method for error correction | |
| CN107358059A (en) | Short-term photovoltaic energy Forecasting Methodology and device | |
| CN114429248A (en) | Transformer apparent power prediction method | |
| CN110705768A (en) | Wind power generation power prediction optimization method and device for wind power plant | |
| CN116722545B (en) | Photovoltaic power generation prediction method based on multi-source data and related equipment | |
| CN111476411B (en) | Photovoltaic power station generating capacity calculation method and server | |
| CN112101608A (en) | Offshore wind farm site selection method and device | |
| CN113779861B (en) | Photovoltaic Power Prediction Method and Terminal Equipment | |
| CN115660433A (en) | Photovoltaic power station planning method based on winged insect light-searching movement principle | |
| CN115513945A (en) | Distributed power supply management method based on Internet of things | |
| CN110705769B (en) | New energy power generation power prediction optimization method and device | |
| CN113673809A (en) | Shared energy storage system-oriented five-stage coordinated optimization scheduling control method and system | |
| Mundra et al. | A Multi-Objective Optimization Based Optimal Reactive Power Reward for Voltage Stability Improvement in Uncertain Power System | |
| CN106682760A (en) | Wind power climbing prediction method | |
| CN117575175B (en) | Carbon emission evaluation method, device, electronic equipment and storage medium | |
| CN113887843B (en) | Group prediction method and system for wind power plant output power |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |