CN107171844A - A kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate - Google Patents
A kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN107171844A CN107171844A CN201710367996.3A CN201710367996A CN107171844A CN 107171844 A CN107171844 A CN 107171844A CN 201710367996 A CN201710367996 A CN 201710367996A CN 107171844 A CN107171844 A CN 107171844A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- mrow
- fault rate
- msubsup
- rate
- communication device
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
Classifications
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/14—Network analysis or design
- H04L41/142—Network analysis or design using statistical or mathematical methods
-
- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/14—Network analysis or design
- H04L41/147—Network analysis or design for predicting network behaviour
Landscapes
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Computer Networks & Wireless Communication (AREA)
- Signal Processing (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Algebra (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Mathematical Analysis (AREA)
- Mathematical Optimization (AREA)
- Mathematical Physics (AREA)
- Probability & Statistics with Applications (AREA)
- Pure & Applied Mathematics (AREA)
- Maintenance And Management Of Digital Transmission (AREA)
Abstract
A kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate.The present invention is according to equipment total breakdown situation prediction unit fault progression trend（Fault mode）, select corresponding fault rate to do sums according to unit failure development trend average, the sample set that can apply to unit failure is smaller, and is estimated under the indefinite occasion of communication device component fault mode unit failure rate.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to electric power communication device technical field, more particularly, to a kind of electric power communication device unit failure
The evaluation method of rate.
Background technology
Power telecom network builds communication transmission medium and has been done step-by-step from microwave to optical cable and changes, technical system realize from
Leap from Synchronous Digital Hierarchy to SDH.Current power communication network construction object includes transmission network, service network and branch
Net is supportted, Integrated Services Transmission will be increasingly becoming the main body of communication service, and the application of technology is more embodied in data and Information Level
To be from the circuit switching that voice transfer is representative, to the transition period using IP technologies as the data exchange of representative on face.Now
Power telecom network use electric power communication device substantially, therefore power communication system security risk is logical mainly due to electric power
Letter equipment fault and produce, and the estimation of electric power communication device unit failure rate be risk assessment, spare parts management it is main according to
One of according to.
The content of the invention
In the prior art, when fault sample collection is larger, typically according to the historical failure situation of part, the number of use
The method of reason statistics carrys out the fault rate of estimation components, but the sample set of unit failure is smaller, and communication device component fault mode
It is indefinite, it is impossible to using the method for mathematical statistics come the fault rate of estimation components.
Based on this, it is necessary to which the technology for failing to estimate the fault rate of electric power communication device for prior art is asked
Topic is there is provided a kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate, and concrete technical scheme is as follows.
A kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate, this method comprises the following steps：
1) set certain communication equipment C and run N, this kind of equipment wherein containing S part, is designated as ci(i=1,2 ..., S),
Producer's nominal fault rate of each part is λi(i=1,2 ..., S), before N statistics fault rate be
2) overall irrelevance σs of the N equipment C to nominal fault rate before calculatingj(j=1,2 ..., N)；
3) N parts c before calculatingi(i=1,2 ..., S) to the irrelevance of producer's nominal fault rate
4) estimation N+1 parts ciThe fault rate of (i=1,2 ..., S)：
If σj(j=1,2 ..., N) meet σ1+σ2(the σ of ＞ 2N-1+σN) or σN-1+σN(the σ of ＞ 21+σ2), take the system of nearest 2 years
Fault rate is counted to estimate N+1 fault rate；
Otherwise, N statistics fault rate estimates N+1 fault rate before taking.
Further, in step 2) in,
Further, in step 3) in,
Further, in step 4) in, by taking the statistics fault rate of nearest 2 years to estimate the public affairs of N+1 fault rate
Formula is as follows：
Wherein,
Further, in step 4) in, the formula of N+1 fault rate is estimated by the statistics fault rate of N before
It is as follows：
Wherein,
Relative to prior art, the present invention has the advantages that：According to the event of equipment total breakdown situation prediction unit
Hinder development trend (fault mode), select corresponding fault rate to do sums according to unit failure development trend average, can apply to
The sample set of unit failure is smaller, and unit failure rate is estimated under the indefinite occasion of communication device component fault mode
Calculate.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is a kind of workflow diagram of the evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate of the present invention.
Embodiment
With reference to embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate, comprises the following steps：
1) set certain communication equipment C and run N, this kind of equipment wherein containing S part, is designated as ci(i=1,2 ..., S),
Producer's nominal fault rate of each part is λi(i=1,2 ..., S), before N statistics fault rate be
2) overall irrelevance σs of the N equipment C to nominal fault rate before calculatingj(j=1,2 ..., N).
3) N parts c before calculatingi(i=1,2 ..., S) to the irrelevance of producer's nominal fault rate
4) estimation N+1 parts ciThe fault rate of (i=1,2 ..., S).
Because the sample number of single type components is smaller, its failure typically exhibits random characteristic, it is impossible to embody its failure
The development trend of rate.Equipment includes polytype part, and its total breakdown rate is larger due to sample number, can embody total event
Barrier trend.If total breakdown rate presents and significantly rises or falls trend, more in recent years the fault rate energy of part (such as nearest 2 years)
The development trend of unit failure rate is preferably embodied, takes the statistics fault rate of nearest 2 years to carry out arithmetic mean, with nominal fault
Rate compares the fault rate for taking wherein the greater as estimation.If obvious variation tendency is not presented for total breakdown rate, take over the years
Fault rate do arithmetic mean, wherein the greater is taken compared with nominal fault rate as the fault rate of estimation；And if total breakdown
Obvious variation tendency is not presented for rate, then takes fault rate over the years to do arithmetic mean, is taken compared with nominal fault rate wherein larger
Person as estimation fault rate.
If so σj(j=1,2 ..., N) meet σ1+σ2(the σ of ＞ 2N-1+σN) or σN-1+σN(the σ of ＞ 21+σ2), take nearest 2 years
Statistics fault rate estimate N+1 fault rate.
Wherein,
Otherwise, N statistics fault rate estimates N+1 fault rate before taking.
Wherein,
Obviously, the above embodiment of the present invention is only intended to clearly illustrate example of the present invention, and is not pair
The restriction of embodiments of the present invention.For those of ordinary skill in the field, may be used also on the basis of the above description
To make other changes in different forms.There is no necessity and possibility to exhaust all the enbodiments.It is all this
Any modifications, equivalent substitutions and improvements made within the spirit and principle of invention etc., should be included in the claims in the present invention
Protection domain within.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate, it is characterised in that
This method comprises the following steps：
1) set certain communication equipment C and run N, this kind of equipment wherein containing S part, is designated as ci(i=1,2 ..., S), each portion
Producer's nominal fault rate of part is λi(i=1,2 ..., S), before N statistics fault rate be
2) overall irrelevance σs of the N equipment C to nominal fault rate before calculatingj(j=1,2 ..., N)；
3) N parts c before calculatingi(i=1,2 ..., S) to the irrelevance of producer's nominal fault rate
4) estimation N+1 parts ciThe fault rate of (i=1,2 ..., S)：
If σj(j=1,2 ..., N) meet σ1+σ2(the σ of ＞ 2N-1+σN) or σN-1+σN(the σ of ＞ 21+σ2), take the statistics failure of nearest 2 years
Rate estimates N+1 fault rate；
Otherwise, N statistics fault rate estimates N+1 fault rate before taking.
2. the evaluation method of a kind of electric power communication device unit failure rate according to claim 1, it is characterised in that in step
It is rapid 2) in,
3. the evaluation method of a kind of electric power communication device unit failure rate according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in step
It is rapid 3) in,
4. the evaluation method of a kind of electric power communication device unit failure rate according to claim 3, it is characterised in that in step
It is rapid 4) in, by taking the statistics fault rate of nearest 2 years as follows come the formula for estimating N+1 fault rate：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>f</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>N</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mrow>
<munderover>
<mi>&Sigma;</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>N</mi>
<mo>-</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>N</mi>
</munderover>
<msubsup>
<mi>w</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>*</mo>
<msubsup>
<mi>f</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>,</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&lambda;</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
</mrow>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>S</mi>
</mrow>
Wherein,
5. the evaluation method of a kind of electric power communication device unit failure rate according to claim 4, it is characterised in that in step
It is rapid 4) in, it is as follows come the formula for estimating N+1 fault rate by the statistics fault rate of N before：
<mrow>
<msubsup>
<mi>f</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>N</mi>
<mo>+</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
</msubsup>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>m</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>x</mi>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<munderover>
<mo>&Sigma;</mo>
<mrow>
<mi>j</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
</mrow>
<mi>N</mi>
</munderover>
<msubsup>
<mi>w</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>*</mo>
<msubsup>
<mi>f</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
<mi>j</mi>
</msubsup>
<mo>,</mo>
<msub>
<mi>&lambda;</mi>
<mi>i</mi>
</msub>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>i</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>,</mo>
<mo>...</mo>
<mo>,</mo>
<mi>S</mi>
</mrow>
Wherein,
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710367996.3A CN107171844B (en) | 2017-05-23 | 2017-05-23 | Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710367996.3A CN107171844B (en) | 2017-05-23 | 2017-05-23 | Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107171844A true CN107171844A (en) | 2017-09-15 |
| CN107171844B CN107171844B (en) | 2019-12-06 |
Family
ID=59820480
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710367996.3A Active CN107171844B (en) | 2017-05-23 | 2017-05-23 | Estimation method for failure rate of power communication equipment component |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN107171844B (en) |
Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2016091312A (en) * | 2014-11-05 | 2016-05-23 | 株式会社東芝 | Fault diagnosis apparatus and fault diagnosis method |
| US20160246666A1 (en) * | 2015-02-23 | 2016-08-25 | Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. | Detection and correction of fault induced delayed voltage recovery |
| CN106503417A (en) * | 2016-09-22 | 2017-03-15 | 国网江苏省电力公司泰州供电公司 | A kind of electrical equipment fault rate computational methods based on state evaluation |
| CN106569095A (en) * | 2016-11-09 | 2017-04-19 | 于祥茹 | Power grid fault diagnosis system based on weighted average dependence classifier |
-
2017
- 2017-05-23 CN CN201710367996.3A patent/CN107171844B/en active Active
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP2016091312A (en) * | 2014-11-05 | 2016-05-23 | 株式会社東芝 | Fault diagnosis apparatus and fault diagnosis method |
| US20160246666A1 (en) * | 2015-02-23 | 2016-08-25 | Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc. | Detection and correction of fault induced delayed voltage recovery |
| CN106503417A (en) * | 2016-09-22 | 2017-03-15 | 国网江苏省电力公司泰州供电公司 | A kind of electrical equipment fault rate computational methods based on state evaluation |
| CN106569095A (en) * | 2016-11-09 | 2017-04-19 | 于祥茹 | Power grid fault diagnosis system based on weighted average dependence classifier |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 段小峰: "基于设备状态评价的故障率计算", 《2016年江苏省城市供用电学术年会论文集》 * |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN107171844B (en) | 2019-12-06 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN105580317B (en) | Methods, systems, and computer readable media for DIAMETER load and overload information and virtualization | |
| JP3656716B2 (en) | Service management system | |
| CN102801732A (en) | Power communication backbone network safety risk assessment method based on network topology | |
| EP0979020A3 (en) | A rerouting method for a PVC route on an ATM network and a network management system using the rerouting method | |
| CN110650060A (en) | Processing method, equipment and storage medium for flow alarm | |
| CN101682468A (en) | Data recovery scheme | |
| Alasmar et al. | Internet traffic volumes are not Gaussian—They are log-normal: An 18-year longitudinal study with implications for modelling and prediction | |
| CN107171844A (en) | A kind of evaluation method of electric power communication device unit failure rate | |
| CN111667264B (en) | Block data transmission method and device, electronic equipment and nonvolatile computer storage medium | |
| CN101714929A (en) | Method and system for quantitatively calculating network availability indexes | |
| KR101492733B1 (en) | Method for detecting toll fraud attack in Voice over Internet Protocol service using novelty detection technique | |
| CN109861855B (en) | Method and device for determining importance of nodes in power communication network | |
| CN114915536B (en) | Network system based on SDP assembly and terminal equipment safety protection method | |
| EP4167540A1 (en) | Availability slo-aware network optimization | |
| CN110336606B (en) | Power optical network fault diagnosis method based on parameter estimation and service identification | |
| CN108270605A (en) | The determining method, apparatus and equipment of a kind of important network element | |
| CN108320079A (en) | Consider the electric power secondary system methods of risk assessment of information system connection and transmission | |
| CN105163083A (en) | Method and device for determining transmission path of video data | |
| CN115277447B (en) | Evaluation method and device of network construction effect, electronic equipment and storage medium | |
| RU2751077C1 (en) | Device for evaluating effectiveness of information exchange in communication systems | |
| CN114553939B (en) | Encryption flow-based resource stable switching method in IT intelligent operation and maintenance system | |
| Malika et al. | One of the Methods for Assessing the Reliability of a Communication Network | |
| CN103093318A (en) | Method and system for electric power telecommunication equipment loss control | |
| US8880691B2 (en) | Confidence based network management | |
| Poryazov et al. | Quality of telecommunications as a composition of qualities of subservices, including security and trusted third parties |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |