CN107169645A - A kind of transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method of meter and Rainfall Disaster influence - Google Patents
A kind of transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method of meter and Rainfall Disaster influence Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of meter and the transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method of Rainfall Disaster influence, belong to power system automation technology field.The geographic grid that the present invention calculates the target grid location of assessment first will assess the prediction rainfall in this period at moment, the history accumulation rainfall before current time in certain historical time section in current time to future；Then, prediction and the history rainfall information of transmission tower are calculated according to geographic grid rainfall data, shaft tower and weather station latitude and longitude information, topography and geomorphology parameter further according to shaft tower column foot, the synthesis effective precipitation for calculating with reference to shaft tower rainfall information transmission tower, and then the probability of malfunction of shaft tower is obtained, finally obtain considering the transmission line malfunction probability of Rainfall Disaster influence using relatively independent event algorithm.The present invention greatly improves computational efficiency on the premise of can calculating accuracy and precision ensureing shaft tower rainfall information.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system automation technology field, specifically the present invention relates to one kind meter and Rainfall Disaster shadow
Loud transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method.
Background technology
Heavy rain is one of common meteorological disaster of China, and a wide range of prolonged heavy showers can directly result in flood.
Continue heavy showers or have the short-duration rainstorm of prophase programming cumulative function, rainwater accumulation, seepage flow can cause slope Rock And Soil severe
Increase, ground softening, the reduction of slide strips strengths of rock and soil etc., and then trigger the serious Derived Hazard such as landslide and mud-rock flow.
The height requirement to power consumption triggered along with rapid growth economic in recent years, power industry is quickly sent out
Exhibition, gradually forms transferring electricity from the west to the east, the electric alternating current-direct current series-parallel connection power transmission network main grid structure mutually helped in south.Due to generating end and the distance of receiving end
Farther out, distribution network users disperse, and overhead transmission line is frequently necessary to cross over mountain after mountain, the various complicated geographical environments of approach.Severe
Rainstorm weather in the case of, be located in the shaft tower in the easily disaster area such as hillside, mountain peak, valley, river valley, basin, horn mouth, can be by
Considerable influence, and then influence the safe and stable operation of transmission line of electricity and power network.It is therefore desirable to the reality for transmission line of electricity
Situation carries out Rainfall Disaster risk assessment, and the shaft tower larger to disaster probability and circuit provide disaster alarm.
At present, the domestic influence research direction in Rainfall Disaster to transmission line of electricity is mainly grouped as based on big data screening point
The off-line model research of analysis.Compare it is representational have patent application " assess heavy rain trigger transmission line malfunction probability method "
(201310380170.2), patent application " a kind of modeling method of power transmission and transforming equipment failure probability model towards risk assessment "
(201510908694.3) a kind of, patent application " rainstorm disaster risk evaluation method for foundation slope of transmission line tower "
(201210301265.6)。
Patent application " assessing the method that heavy rain triggers transmission line malfunction probability " (201310380170.2) proposes basis
Actual measurement rainfall data carry out the rainfall scope and rainfall intensity that linear extrapolation obtains forecasting future time period, and according to line corridor
Transmission tower event will be calculated after line sectionalizing further according to transmission tower probability of malfunction computation model by managing feature and surrounding enviroment feature
Hinder probability, finally obtain the probability of malfunction of circuit.
Patent application " a kind of modeling method of power transmission and transforming equipment failure probability model towards risk assessment "
(201510908694.3) propose to be based on power transmission and transforming equipment real-time state monitoring, microclimate and natural calamity forecast information, for
Its life cycle management information of distinct device ontoanalysis and aperiodic random information, will be each using big data screening assays
Item risk factors are integrated into several risk indicators as the defeated of the power transmission and transforming equipment failure probability model based on proportional hazard model
Enter, and then quantify influence of each risk factors to fault trend.
Patent application " a kind of rainstorm disaster risk evaluation method for foundation slope of transmission line tower "
(201210301265.6) propose to draw control power transmission line according to a large amount of disaster statisticses and rain making slope erosion test statistics
The dangerous Flood inducing factors of line pole tower basis side slope heavy rain；Flood inducing factors, slope stability are quantified, adopted after normalized
The weight vectors that each Flood inducing factors cause calamity to influence heavy rain are tried to achieve with step analysis calculation procedure is improved, electric power line pole tower is set up
The mathematical modeling that basic side slope heavy rain Landslide hazard is assessed, is realized to specifying transmission line tower foundation side slope heavy rain risk to comment
Estimate.
But, above-mentioned existing technological achievement does not consider weather station history rainfall information and weather forecast letter
The influence to following rainfall trend and shaft tower is ceased, while needing huge basic database, the maintenance of substantial amounts of calculating parameter, complexity
Modular concept carry out probability of malfunction calculating, it is difficult to realize Rainfall Disaster to transmission line malfunction probability it is online fast and safely
Assess.
The content of the invention
The present invention seeks to：In view of the shortcomings of the prior art, the transmission line of electricity event of a kind of meter and Rainfall Disaster influence is proposed
Hinder probability online evaluation method.This method is intended to, according to weather station history rainfall information and Weather Forecast Information, calculate electricity
The rainfall information of the geographic grid of location is netted, can not be truly anti-when overcoming only with reference to weather station history rainfall product data
Reflect following rainfall trend and the defect of enough meteorological measuring point information can not be obtained when weather station layouts less；According to geography
Grid rainfall data, shaft tower and weather station latitude and longitude information calculate the rainfall information of transmission tower, solve according to effectively away from
The problem of mode inefficiency of the nearest weather station information of shaft tower correspondence being searched for from interior point-to-point；Power transmission rod is chosen by priority
The topography and geomorphology parameter in tower column foot location, realizes the purpose that emphasis shaft tower, key area parameter emphasis are safeguarded, is ensureing parameter
The problem of shaft tower supplemental characteristic maintenance workload is big is solved on the premise of precision.
Specifically, the present invention is realized using following technical scheme, is comprised the following steps：
1) calculate according to the following steps the geographic grid of power network location assessed in current time to future the moment this
Prediction rainfall in period and the history accumulation rainfall before current time in certain historical time section, the geography network
Lattice refer to the geographic grid set being divided into according to the minimax longitude and latitude of power network location, certain historical time section
Refer to consider the multiple influence such as topographic and geologic weather environment decline rainfall can also be remaining certain through pervaporation and after being lost in
The rainfall of ratio infiltrate through ground or accumulation in earth's surface and may finally cause landslide, mountain torrents, mud-rock flow generation it is effective
Historical time section：
1-1) according to the longitude and latitude scope of geographic grid, calculate geographic grid and forecast that the overlapping area of scope is accounted for weather station
The percentage of geographic grid area whether be more than threshold value set in advance, determine geographic grid whether weather station forecast model
In enclosing；
Forecast scope, including directly forecast scope and indirectly forecast scope, the direct forecast model of weather station in the weather station
Enclose and refer to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is multiplied by coefficient klFor the circle where radius
Region；The indirect forecast scope of weather station, refers to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, and the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station multiplies
With coefficient klFor inner ring, the annular region that the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is outer shroud；Wherein, klTake no more than 1 positive number；
The maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station for can ensure observed meteorological element power network location insert
Value all has enough precision and representative weather station distribution distance；
If 1-2) geographic grid is in the range of the forecast of weather station, the rainfall of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Measure information：
It is determined that mainly influenceing weather station：If geographic grid is in the directly or indirectly forecast model of one or more weather stations
In enclosing, then main influence weather station is the history accumulation in certain historical time section before current time in directly forecast weather station
Rainfall the maximum；If geographic grid is in the range of the indirect forecast of one or more weather stations, main influence is meteorological
Stand as history accumulation rainfall the maximum before current time in forecast weather station indirectly in certain historical time section；
History accumulation rainfall before calculating geographic grid current time by formula (1) in certain historical time section,
Unit is mm：
Wherein, t0For current time, TcFor certain historical time section, unit is h, r (t) for main influence weather station when
The rainfall intensity that t is measured is carved, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (2)
Amount, unit is mm：
Wherein, Δ t is current time t0To the following time span for assessing the moment, unit is h, rpreFor geographic grid institute
The average rainfall intensity in this period at moment will be assessed in current time to future in regional weather forecast, unit is mm/
H, k1For the weight coefficient of weather station measured value, k2For the weight coefficient of weather forecast value, wherein k1+k2=1；
If geographic grid is not in the range of the forecast of weather station, the rainfall of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Information：
History accumulation rainfall list before calculating geographic grid current time by formula (3) in certain historical time section
Position is mm；
Rpast=r 'preTc (3)
Wherein, r 'preFor the weather forecast of geographic grid location before current time it is flat in certain historical time section
Equal rainfall intensity, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (4)
Amount, unit is mm；
Rpre=rpreΔt (4)
2) longitude and latitude of the longitude and latitude and each weather station of contrast transmission tower, if the longitude and latitude of transmission tower and certain
The longitude and latitude of individual weather station is identical, then the prediction rainfall of transmission tower and history accumulation rainfall measures the prediction drop of the weather station
Rainfall and history accumulation rainfall, the prediction rainfall and the circular such as formula of history accumulation rainfall of weather station
(1) r (t) in, (2), wherein formula (1) takes the rainfall intensity that weather station is measured in moment t, during unit is mm/h, formula (2)
rpreThe average rainfall for taking the weather forecast of weather station location to be assessed in current time to future in this period at moment is strong
Degree, unit is mm/h；
If the longitude and latitude of the longitude and latitude of transmission tower and all weather stations is differed, the prediction rainfall of transmission tower
Amount and history accumulation rainfall measure step 1) in the prediction rainfall of the affiliated geographic grid of transmission tower that calculates and history it is tired
Product rainfall；
3) the topography and geomorphology parameter in transmission tower column foot location is determined, in conjunction with step 2) in obtain transmission tower it is pre-
Rainfall and history accumulation rainfall are surveyed, the synthesis effective precipitation for obtaining transmission tower is calculated；Finally combine transmission tower event
Hinder probability calculation model, calculate and obtain transmission tower because heavy rain causes the probability of malfunction of calamity；
The synthesis effective precipitation R=R of the transmission towerz+Rs, wherein, Rz, can be according to public affairs for early stage effective precipitation
Formula (5) is calculated；RsFor amendment short duration raininess, calculated according to formula (6)：
Rz=kp*Rpast (5)
Rs=kcor*Rpre (6)
Wherein kpFor history rainfall overall attenuation coefficient, kcorTo predict rainfall quantity correction coefficient, according to transmission tower tower
The topography and geomorphology parameter of base section takes different kpAnd kcor；
4) according to step 3) in obtained transmission tower probability of malfunction, using relatively independent event algorithm, calculating obtains sudden and violent
Rain disaster scenarios it descends the probability of malfunction of each bar transmission line of electricity, terminates this method.
Above-mentioned technical proposal is further characterized by, the step 3) in transmission tower column foot location topography and geomorphology
Parameter is chosen according to priority, and priority level sequence is as follows：The topography and geomorphology parameter of transmission tower>Geography belonging to transmission tower
Grid topography and geomorphology parameter>The typical topography and geomorphology parameter of power network location.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows：The present invention proposes to be believed according to weather station history rainfall information and weather forecast
Breath, calculates the rainfall information of the geographic grid of power network location, overcomes only with reference to weather station history rainfall product data
Shi Buneng, which truly reflects, can not obtain lacking for enough meteorological measuring point information when following rainfall trend and weather station layout less
Fall into.The longitude and latitude of present invention contrast transmission tower and the longitude and latitude of each weather station obtain the rainfall information of transmission tower,
Ensure that shaft tower rainfall information greatly improves computational efficiency on the premise of calculating accuracy and precision.The present invention is according to power transmission rod
The typical topography and geomorphology parameter priority of geographic grid, power network location belonging to tower, transmission tower chooses transmission tower tower
The topography and geomorphology parameter of base section, realizes the purpose that emphasis shaft tower, key area parameter emphasis are safeguarded, is ensureing parameters precision
Under the premise of solve the problem of shaft tower supplemental characteristic maintenance workload is big.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is grid and shaft tower rainfall calculating schematic diagram in the inventive method.
Embodiment
With reference to embodiment and the present invention is described in further detail referring to the drawings.
Embodiment 1：
One embodiment of the present of invention, implementation step is as shown in Figure 1.
Step 1 in Fig. 1, Fig. 1 is referred to describe to calculate the geographic grid of power network location at current time to not
To assess the prediction rainfall in this period at moment, the history accumulation rainfall before current time in certain historical time section
Amount.The geographic grid refers to the geographic grid set being divided into according to the minimax longitude and latitude of power network location, described
Certain historical time section refers to considering the multiple influence decline rainfall such as topographic and geologic weather environment through pervaporation and loss
After can also remaining a certain proportion of rainfall infiltrate through ground or accumulate in earth's surface and may finally cause landslide, mountain torrents, mud
Effective historical time section that rock glacier occurs.
Step 1) detailed process be：First, according to the longitude and latitude scope of geographic grid, geographic grid and weather station are calculated
Forecast that whether the overlapping area of scope takes up an area the percentage for managing grid area more than threshold value set in advance, determine geographic grid
Whether in the range of the forecast of weather station；
Forecast scope, including directly forecast scope and indirectly forecast scope, the direct forecast model of weather station in the weather station
Enclose and refer to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is multiplied by coefficient klFor the circle where radius
Region；The indirect forecast scope of weather station, refers to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, and the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station multiplies
With coefficient klFor inner ring, the annular region that the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is outer shroud；Wherein, klTake no more than 1 positive number,
K can be takenl=0.5；
The maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station for can ensure observed meteorological element power network location insert
Value all has enough precision and representative weather station distribution distance；
If geographic grid is in the range of the forecast of weather station, the rainfall letter of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Breath：
It is determined that mainly influenceing weather station：If geographic grid is in the directly or indirectly forecast model of one or more weather stations
In enclosing, then main influence weather station is the history accumulation in certain historical time section before current time in directly forecast weather station
Rainfall the maximum；If geographic grid is in the range of the indirect forecast of one or more weather stations, main influence is meteorological
Stand as history accumulation rainfall the maximum before current time in forecast weather station indirectly in certain historical time section；
History accumulation rainfall before calculating geographic grid current time by formula (1) in certain historical time section,
Unit is mm：
Wherein t0For current time, TcFor certain historical time section, unit is h, and r (t) is main influence weather station at the moment
The rainfall intensity that t is measured, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (2)
Amount, unit is mm：
Wherein, Δ t is current time t0To the following time span for assessing the moment, unit is h, rpreFor geographic grid institute
The average rainfall intensity in this period at moment will be assessed in current time to future in regional weather forecast, unit is mm/
H, k1For the weight coefficient of weather station measured value, k2For the weight coefficient of weather forecast value, wherein k1+k2=1, k can be taken1=k2
=0.5；
By taking Fig. 2 as an example, geographic grid is taken to forecast that the overlapping area of scope is more than or equal to geographic grid with weather station here
Area 50% when, geographic grid be in weather station direct forecast scope.
Geographic grid x1y4 is in the range of weather station D direct forecast, and surrounding is without other influences weather station, its main shadow
It is weather station D to ring weather station；Geographic grid x2y4, x2y3 are in the range of weather station D indirect forecast, and it mainly influences meteorology
Station is weather station D；Geographic grid x2y3 is in the range of weather station B, C indirect forecast, need to compare the current of B, C weather station
History accumulation rainfall before moment in certain historical time section, it is main influence weather station to take wherein the greater；Geography network
Lattice x4y2 is in the range of weather station A, B indirect forecast, certain historical time before need to comparing the current time of A, B weather station
History accumulation rainfall in section, it is main influence weather station to take wherein the greater；Geographic grid x5y2 is between weather station A
Connect in the range of forecast, it mainly influences weather station to be weather station A；
If geographic grid is not in the range of weather station forecast, the rainfall letter of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Breath：
History accumulation rainfall list before calculating geographic grid current time by formula (3) in certain historical time section
Position is mm；
Rpast=r 'preTc (3)
Wherein, r 'preFor the weather forecast of geographic grid location before current time it is flat in certain historical time section
Equal rainfall intensity, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (4)
Amount, unit is mm；
Rpre=rpreΔt (4)
By taking Fig. 2 as an example, wherein geographic grid x1y1, x1y2, x3y5, x4y5, x5y5, x6y5, x6y3, x6y4 is not at gas
In the range of the forecast of station, history and actual measurement rainfall need to be asked for according to formula (3) formula (4)；
Fig. 1 steps 2) longitude and latitude, the longitude and latitude of weather station according to transmission tower, and step 1 are described) in obtain
The affiliated geographic grid of transmission tower prediction rainfall and history accumulation rainfall, determine transmission tower prediction rainfall and
History accumulation rainfall.Its detailed process is as follows：
The longitude and latitude of transmission tower and the longitude and latitude of each weather station are contrasted, if the longitude and latitude of transmission tower and some
The longitude and latitude of weather station is identical, then the prediction rainfall of transmission tower and history accumulation rainfall measures the prediction rainfall of the weather station
Amount and history accumulation rainfall, the prediction rainfall of weather station and the circular such as formula (1) of history accumulation rainfall,
(2), the r (t) wherein in formula (1) takes the rainfall intensity that weather station is measured in moment t, and unit is r in mm/h, formula (2)pre
The weather forecast of weather station location is taken to assess the average rainfall intensity in this period at moment in current time to future,
Unit is mm/h；If the longitude and latitude of the longitude and latitude of transmission tower and all weather stations is differed, the prediction of transmission tower
Rainfall and history accumulation rainfall measure step 1) in the prediction rainfall of the affiliated geographic grid of transmission tower that calculates and go through
History accumulation rainfall；
By taking Fig. 2 as an example, shaft tower T1 longitudes and latitudes are identical with weather station D longitude and latitude, its rainfall information (prediction rainfall and
History accumulation rainfall) take weather station D rainfall data；Longitude and latitude identical weather station therewith is not present in shaft tower T2~T6, its
Rainfall data takes the rainfall information of its affiliated geographic grid, and wherein shaft tower T2 affiliated geographic grid is x2y4, shaft tower T3
Affiliated geographic grid be x2y3, shaft tower T4 affiliated geographic grid is x3y3, and shaft tower T5 affiliated geographic grid is x4y2, bar
Tower T6 affiliated geographic grid is x5y2.
Fig. 1 steps 3) description the topography and geomorphology parameter for being to determine transmission tower column foot location, in conjunction with step 2) in
The prediction of the transmission tower arrived and history rainfall information, calculate the synthesis effective precipitation for obtaining transmission tower；Finally combine
Transmission tower probability of malfunction computation model, calculates and obtains transmission tower because heavy rain causes the probability of malfunction of calamity；
Here transmission tower probability of malfunction computation model can use various transmission tower probability of malfunction meters of the prior art
Model is calculated, as used in patent application " assessing the method that heavy rain triggers transmission line malfunction probability " (201310380170.2)
Transmission tower probability of malfunction computation model etc..
The topography and geomorphology parameter in the transmission tower column foot location can be chosen according to priority, and priority level sequence is as follows：
The topography and geomorphology parameter of transmission tower>Geographic grid topography and geomorphology parameter belonging to transmission tower>The typical case of power network location
Topography and geomorphology parameter；
By taking Fig. 2 as an example, geographic grid x1y3, x2y3, x1y4, x2y4 are at mud-rock flow, landslide severely afflicated area, wherein shaft tower T1
In disaster area core location, emphasis maintains shaft tower T1, geographic grid x1y3, x2y3, x1y4, x2y4 topography and geomorphology parameter, with
And the typical topography and geomorphology parameter of the region n where power network；Then shaft tower T1 takes the topography and geomorphology parameter of transmission tower, and T2 takes geography
Grid x2y4 topography and geomorphology parameter, T3 takes geographic grid x2y3 topography and geomorphology parameter, and T4~T6 takes region n typical landform
Landforms parameter.
The synthesis effective precipitation R=R of the transmission towerz+Rs, wherein, Rz, can be according to public affairs for early stage effective precipitation
Formula (5) is calculated；RsFor amendment short duration raininess, it can be calculated according to formula (6)：
Rz=kp*Rpast (5)
Rs=kcor*Rpre (6)
Wherein kpFor history rainfall overall attenuation coefficient, kcorTo predict rainfall quantity correction coefficient, according to transmission tower tower
The topography and geomorphology parameter of base section takes different values；
Fig. 1 steps 4) describe according to step 3) in obtained transmission tower probability of malfunction, using relatively independent event
Algorithm, calculating obtains the probability of malfunction of each bar transmission line of electricity in the case of Rainfall Disaster.
Although the present invention is disclosed as above with preferred embodiment, embodiment is not for limiting the present invention's.Not
In the spirit and scope for departing from the present invention, any equivalence changes done or retouching also belong to the protection domain of the present invention.Cause
The content that this protection scope of the present invention should be defined using claims hereof is standard.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of meter and the transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method of Rainfall Disaster influence, it is characterised in that including following
Step：
1) geographic grid for calculating power network location according to the following steps will assess this time at moment in current time to future
Rainfall and the history accumulation rainfall before current time in certain historical time section are predicted in section, the geographic grid is
Refer to the geographic grid set being divided into according to the minimax longitude and latitude of power network location, certain historical time section refers to
Can also remaining certain proportion after pervaporation and loss considering the multiple influence decline rainfall such as topographic and geologic weather environment
Rainfall infiltrate through ground or accumulation in earth's surface and may finally cause landslide, mountain torrents, mud-rock flow generation effective history
Period：
1-1) according to the longitude and latitude scope of geographic grid, calculate geographic grid and forecast that the overlapping area of scope takes up an area reason with weather station
The percentage of grid area whether be more than threshold value set in advance, determine geographic grid whether weather station forecast scope
It is interior；
The weather station forecasts scope, including directly forecast scope and indirectly forecast scope, and the direct forecast scope of weather station is
Refer to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is multiplied by coefficient klFor the circle where radius
Domain；The indirect forecast scope of weather station, refers to centered on the longitude and latitude of weather station, and the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is multiplied by
Coefficient klFor inner ring, the annular region that the maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station is outer shroud；Wherein, klTake no more than 1 positive number；
The maximum allowable survey station spacing in weather station for can ensure observed meteorological element power network location interpolation all
With enough precision and representative weather station distribution distance；
If 1-2) geographic grid is in the range of the forecast of weather station, the rainfall letter of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Breath：
It is determined that mainly influenceing weather station：If geographic grid is in the directly or indirectly forecast scope of one or more weather stations
Interior, then main influence weather station is the history accumulation drop in certain historical time section before current time in directly forecast weather station
Rainfall the maximum；If geographic grid is in the range of the indirect forecast of one or more weather stations, main influence weather station
For history accumulation rainfall the maximum in certain historical time section before current time in forecast weather station indirectly；
History accumulation rainfall before calculating geographic grid current time by formula (1) in certain historical time section, unit
For mm：
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</mrow>
<mi>d</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>1</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
Wherein, t0For current time, TcFor certain historical time section, unit is h, and r (t) surveys for main influence weather station in moment t
The rainfall intensity obtained, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (2),
Unit is mm：
<mrow>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>p</mi>
<mi>r</mi>
<mi>e</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<msub>
<mi>k</mi>
<mn>1</mn>
</msub>
<mfrac>
<mrow>
<mi>&Delta;</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</mrow>
<msub>
<mi>T</mi>
<mi>c</mi>
</msub>
</mfrac>
<msub>
<mi>R</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>p</mi>
<mi>a</mi>
<mi>s</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mo>+</mo>
<msub>
<mi>k</mi>
<mn>2</mn>
</msub>
<msub>
<mi>r</mi>
<mrow>
<mi>p</mi>
<mi>r</mi>
<mi>e</mi>
</mrow>
</msub>
<mi>&Delta;</mi>
<mi>t</mi>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mo>-</mo>
<mrow>
<mo>(</mo>
<mn>2</mn>
<mo>)</mo>
</mrow>
</mrow>
Wherein, Δ t is current time t0To the following time span for assessing the moment, unit is h, rpreFor geographic grid location
Weather forecast will assess the average rainfall intensity in this period at moment in current time to future, and unit is mm/h, k1For
The weight coefficient of weather station measured value, k2For the weight coefficient of weather forecast value, wherein k1+k2=1；
If geographic grid is not in the range of the forecast of weather station, the rainfall letter of geographic grid is calculated in accordance with the following methods
Breath：
It is by the history accumulation rainfall unit before formula (3) calculating geographic grid current time in certain historical time section
mm；
Rpast=r'preTc (3)
Wherein, r'preFor average drop of the geographic grid location weather forecast before current time in certain historical time section
Rainfall density, unit is mm/h；
Prediction rainfall of the geographic grid within assessment this period at moment in current time to future is calculated by formula (4),
Unit is mm；
Rpre=rpreΔt (4)
2) longitude and latitude of the longitude and latitude and each weather station of contrast transmission tower, if longitude and latitude and some gas of transmission tower
As the longitude and latitude at station is identical, then the prediction rainfall of transmission tower and history accumulation rainfall measures the prediction rainfall of the weather station
And history accumulation rainfall, weather station prediction rainfall and history accumulation rainfall circular such as formula (1),
(2), the r (t) wherein in formula (1) takes the rainfall intensity that weather station is measured in moment t, and unit is r in mm/h, formula (2)pre
The weather forecast of weather station location is taken to assess the average rainfall intensity in this period at moment in current time to future,
Unit is mm/h；
If the longitude and latitude of the longitude and latitude of transmission tower and all weather stations is differed, the prediction rainfall of transmission tower and
History accumulation rainfall measures step 1) in the prediction rainfall of the affiliated geographic grid of transmission tower that calculates and history accumulation drop
Rainfall；
3) the topography and geomorphology parameter in transmission tower column foot location is determined, in conjunction with step 2) in obtain transmission tower prediction drop
Rainfall and history accumulation rainfall, calculate the synthesis effective precipitation for obtaining transmission tower；Finally combine transmission tower failure general
Rate computation model, calculates and obtains transmission tower because heavy rain causes the probability of malfunction of calamity；
The synthesis effective precipitation R=R of the transmission towerz+Rs, wherein, Rz, can be according to formula (5) for early stage effective precipitation
Calculate；RsFor amendment short duration raininess, calculated according to formula (6)：
Rz=kp*Rpast (5)
Rs=kcor*Rpre (6)
Wherein kpFor history rainfall overall attenuation coefficient, kcorFor prediction rainfall quantity correction coefficient, according to transmission tower column foot
The topography and geomorphology parameter of section takes different kpAnd kcor；
4) according to step 3) in obtained transmission tower probability of malfunction, using relatively independent event algorithm, calculating obtains heavy rain calamity
The probability of malfunction of each bar transmission line of electricity in the case of evil, terminates this method.
2. meter according to claim 1 and the transmission line malfunction probability online evaluation method of Rainfall Disaster influence, it is special
Levy and be, the step 3) in the topography and geomorphology parameter in transmission tower column foot location chosen according to priority, priority level row
Sequence is as follows：The topography and geomorphology parameter of transmission tower>Geographic grid topography and geomorphology parameter belonging to transmission tower>Power network location
Typical topography and geomorphology parameter.
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