CN107016095A - Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence - Google Patents
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- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 description 2
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, utilize carbon satellite technology and ground fixed observer technology, the moving source detection technique of independent research, form multi-source carbon emission database, socioeconomic model and earth system pattern are coupled, Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes are set up.Multi-source carbon emission data are incorporated into climate change comprehensive assessment field by the present invention, are solved the incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism of carbon information in climate change comprehensive assessment, are effectively reduced the uncertainty of assessment result;And realize socioeconomic model and earth system pattern it is two-way, dynamically associate, the accuracy that the accuracy and greenhouse gas emission for improving the assessment of climate change Socie-economic loss are adjusted enhances the actual directive significance of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to climate change appraisal procedure field, specifically a kind of climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence is integrated
Appraisal procedure.
Background technology
At present, using single source, discontinuous carbon emission data there is carbon information in existing climate change comprehensive estimation method
Incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, influences the accuracy of climate change assessment result.Meanwhile, existing climate change comprehensive assessment mould
Type, unidirectional, the static association that there are problems that socioeconomic model and earth system pattern, using the single-factor of " temperature-loss "
The single-factor greenhouse gas emission accounting method of climate change loss appraisal method and " fossil energy-discharge ", have ignored other
The influence of social ecnomicfactors and climatic factor, very big uncertainty is brought to climate change comprehensive assessment, it is impossible to effectively referred to
Lead climate change and slow down and adapt to work.
The content of the invention it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence,
The problem of to solve prior art climate change comprehensive estimation method Shortcomings.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is:
Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Comprise the following steps:
(1)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source;
(2)Using land gas assimilation means, to step(1)In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal;
(3)Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step(2)Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database;
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption;
(4)Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed;
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level;
(5)Compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up many societies because
Son-discharge relational expression, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, the greenhouse gases of renewal is arranged
High-volume it is input to step(4)Obtained earth system pattern model, these weathers of integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination because
Son, sets up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assesses the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced;
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step(3)The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step(1)In, it is described
Carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector by carbon satellite measured spectra data carry out inverting, obtain high-resolution, dynamic
Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Described ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, real
When carbon dioxide content detection is carried out to the air of selecting sample areas and different height, and the detection data of each monitoring point are converged
It is total to be analyzed and handled to monitoring master station, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Described moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, differently
The point CO2 emissions that flexibly multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, will be mobile using discharge-concentration mechanism
Source CO2 emissions are converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step(3)In, it is based on
General equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, world's main economic body region socioeconomic model, national society is set up
Meeting economic model, portrays the phase interaction between the main body such as the producer, government, enterprise and resident in subject area macro-economic system
With relation, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, foreign trade activity are simulated;
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set;
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step(4)In, with step
Suddenly(2)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data in middle multi-source carbon emission database forces condition as history, with step(5)
Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, and output has spatial and temporal resolution
Climate change, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
The climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence of the present invention, is fixed using carbon satellite technology, ground
Observation technology, moving source detection technique, form multi-source carbon emission database, realize pair high price that can be expanded, can recognize that, can interact
It is worth the extraction of carbon information.Multi-source carbon emission database is introduced into climate change comprehensive assessment field, carbon information in assessment is solved
Incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, improves the accuracy and continuity of carbon number evidence in Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, effectively drop
The uncertainty of low assessment result.And in climate change comprehensive assessment modeling process, realize socioeconomic model and the earth
System model it is two-way, dynamically associate, improve climate change Socie-economic loss assessment accuracy and greenhouse gas emission
The reliability of accounting, enhances the actual directive significance of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, is that country participates in Difference on Climate Change Negotiation
Decision support is provided.
Compared with the prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention are embodied in:
The climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence of the present invention, using carbon satellite technology, ground fixed observer
Technology, moving source detection technique, form multi-source carbon emission database, realize pair high value carbon that can be expanded, can recognize that, can interact
The extraction of information.Multi-source carbon emission database is introduced into climate change comprehensive assessment field, carbon information in assessment is solved endless
Standby and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, improves the accuracy and continuity of carbon number evidence in Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, and effectively reduction is commented
Estimate the uncertainty of result.And in climate change comprehensive assessment modeling process, realize socioeconomic model and earth system
Pattern it is two-way, dynamically associate, set up " many social ecnomicfactors-discharges " relational expression and " many climatic factor-losses " relational expression,
Simple " fossil energy-discharge " relational expression of tradition and " temperature rise-loss " relational expression are substituted respectively, improve climate change society
The reliability that the accuracy of Economic loss evaluation and greenhouse gas emission are adjusted, enhances the reality of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes
Border directive significance, participates in Difference on Climate Change Negotiation for country and provides decision support.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is method flow schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is socioeconomic model-earth system Mode Coupling module workflow schematic diagram of the invention.
Embodiment
As shown in figure 1, the climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, comprises the following steps:
(1)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source;
(2)Using land gas assimilation means, to step(1)In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal;
(3)Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step(2)Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database;
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption;
(4)Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed;
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level;
(5)As shown in Fig. 2 compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up
The many society's factor-discharge relational expressions, assess the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, by the temperature of renewal
Room gas emissions are input to step(4)Obtained earth system pattern model, integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination this
A little climatic factors, set up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assess the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced;
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step(3)The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
Step(1)In, carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector is obtained by carrying out inverting to carbon satellite measured spectra data
To high-resolution, dynamic global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, in real time to choosing
The air of random sample one's respective area and different height carries out carbon dioxide content detection, and by the detection data summarization of each monitoring point to supervising
Survey master station to be analyzed and handled, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, motor-driven in different location
The CO2 emissions that ground multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, using discharge-concentration mechanism by moving source dioxy
Change carbon emission amount and be converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
Step(3)In, based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, set up world economic model, world's main economic body
Region social economy model, national society's economic model, portray the producer, government, enterprise in subject area macro-economic system
Interaction relationship between the main body such as resident, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, externally
Trade activity is simulated;
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set;
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
Step(4)In, with step(2)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data conduct in middle multi-source carbon emission database
History forces condition, with step(5)Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out earth system pattern simulation real
Test, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
In the present invention, the effect of socioeconomic model is the producer, government, enterprise in simulated object Regional Macro economic System system
Interaction relationship between the main body such as industry and resident, and it is the production of various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, right
The activities such as outer trade.The effect of air component is that to portray radiation, cloud and precipitation, Atmospheric Chemistry, aerosol effect, boundary layer etc. more
The process of kind;The effect of land surface emissivity component is the biophysics for portraying the exchanges such as moisture, heat between vegetation, soil, air
Process, the ecological physiology process and soil carbon of dynamic vegetation such as decompose at the Biochemical processes;The effect of ocean component is simulation
Ocean circulation, radiation such as penetrate, saltoutd at process and the biogeochemical process;The effect of sea ice component is description sea ice freeze thawing
Process.
Claims (4)
1. the climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Comprise the following steps:
(1)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source;
(2)Using land gas assimilation means, to step(1)In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal;
(3)Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step(2)Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database;
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption;
(4)Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed;
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level;
(5)Compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up many societies because
Son-discharge relational expression, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, the greenhouse gases of renewal is arranged
High-volume it is input to step(4)Obtained earth system pattern model, these weathers of integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination because
Son, sets up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assesses the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced;
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step(3)The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
2. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step
(1)In, described carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector obtains high score by carrying out inverting to carbon satellite measured spectra data
Resolution, dynamic global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Described ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, real
When carbon dioxide content detection is carried out to the air of selecting sample areas and different height, and the detection data of each monitoring point are converged
It is total to be analyzed and handled to monitoring master station, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data;
Described moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, differently
The point CO2 emissions that flexibly multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, will be mobile using discharge-concentration mechanism
Source CO2 emissions are converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
3. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step
(3)In, based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, set up world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world
Model, national society's economic model, portray the main body such as the producer, government, enterprise and resident in subject area macro-economic system
Between interaction relationship, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, foreign trade activity carry out
Simulation;
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set;
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
4. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that:Step
(4)In, with step(2)Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data in middle multi-source carbon emission database forces bar as history
Part, with step(5)Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, output tool
There are the climate change of spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
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Cited By (10)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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CN108108845A (en) * | 2017-12-28 | 2018-06-01 | 广西南宁荣威德新能源科技有限公司 | Urban waterlogging forecasting system based on monitoring vehicle exhaust discharge capacity |
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CN113837912B (en) * | 2021-09-03 | 2023-09-26 | 南京工业大学 | Analysis method for influence factors of carbon emission in construction industry |
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CN114662320A (en) * | 2022-03-28 | 2022-06-24 | 王大成 | Carbon emission detection system based on satellite observation |
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