CN107016095A - Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence - Google Patents
Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN107016095A CN107016095A CN201710224608.6A CN201710224608A CN107016095A CN 107016095 A CN107016095 A CN 107016095A CN 201710224608 A CN201710224608 A CN 201710224608A CN 107016095 A CN107016095 A CN 107016095A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- economic
- source
- model
- carbon dioxide
- climate change
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Granted
Links
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 title claims abstract description 63
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 title claims abstract description 63
- 230000008859 change Effects 0.000 title claims abstract description 63
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 41
- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 18
- 239000005431 greenhouse gas Substances 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon dioxide Chemical compound O=C=O CURLTUGMZLYLDI-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 136
- 229910002092 carbon dioxide Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 68
- 239000001569 carbon dioxide Substances 0.000 claims description 39
- 230000008569 process Effects 0.000 claims description 16
- 230000008878 coupling Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000010168 coupling process Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000005859 coupling reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 13
- 230000000694 effects Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 230000012010 growth Effects 0.000 claims description 12
- 230000014509 gene expression Effects 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000005286 illumination Methods 0.000 claims description 9
- 230000007246 mechanism Effects 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 claims description 7
- 210000000746 body region Anatomy 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000002123 temporal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000002474 experimental method Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000000605 extraction Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000012544 monitoring process Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000006243 chemical reaction Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 239000007789 gas Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 241001269238 Data Species 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000006012 detection of carbon dioxide Effects 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000001228 spectrum Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 230000003993 interaction Effects 0.000 claims description 2
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 abstract description 7
- 206010068052 Mosaicism Diseases 0.000 abstract description 4
- 210000003765 sex chromosome Anatomy 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000005855 radiation Effects 0.000 description 2
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 description 2
- 230000007474 system interaction Effects 0.000 description 2
- 241000790917 Dioxys <bee> Species 0.000 description 1
- 239000000443 aerosol Substances 0.000 description 1
- 239000000926 atmospheric chemistry Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000003851 biochemical process Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000035479 physiological effects, processes and functions Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000009467 reduction Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000003068 static effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000010257 thawing Methods 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F16/00—Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor
- G06F16/20—Information retrieval; Database structures therefor; File system structures therefor of structured data, e.g. relational data
- G06F16/21—Design, administration or maintenance of databases
- G06F16/211—Schema design and management
- G06F16/212—Schema design and management with details for data modelling support
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
- G06Q50/26—Government or public services
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P90/00—Enabling technologies with a potential contribution to greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions mitigation
- Y02P90/80—Management or planning
- Y02P90/84—Greenhouse gas [GHG] management systems
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Databases & Information Systems (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Data Mining & Analysis (AREA)
- General Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, utilize carbon satellite technology and ground fixed observer technology, the moving source detection technique of independent research, form multi-source carbon emission database, socioeconomic model and earth system pattern are coupled, Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes are set up.Multi-source carbon emission data are incorporated into climate change comprehensive assessment field by the present invention, are solved the incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism of carbon information in climate change comprehensive assessment, are effectively reduced the uncertainty of assessment result；And realize socioeconomic model and earth system pattern it is two-way, dynamically associate, the accuracy that the accuracy and greenhouse gas emission for improving the assessment of climate change Socie-economic loss are adjusted enhances the actual directive significance of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to climate change appraisal procedure field, specifically a kind of climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence is integrated
Appraisal procedure.
Background technology
At present, using single source, discontinuous carbon emission data there is carbon information in existing climate change comprehensive estimation method
Incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, influences the accuracy of climate change assessment result.Meanwhile, existing climate change comprehensive assessment mould
Type, unidirectional, the static association that there are problems that socioeconomic model and earth system pattern, using the single-factor of " temperature-loss "
The single-factor greenhouse gas emission accounting method of climate change loss appraisal method and " fossil energy-discharge ", have ignored other
The influence of social ecnomicfactors and climatic factor, very big uncertainty is brought to climate change comprehensive assessment, it is impossible to effectively referred to
Lead climate change and slow down and adapt to work.
The content of the invention it is an object of the invention to provide a kind of climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence,
The problem of to solve prior art climate change comprehensive estimation method Shortcomings.
In order to achieve the above object, the technical solution adopted in the present invention is：
Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Comprise the following steps：
（1）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source；
（2）Using land gas assimilation means, to step（1）In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal；
（3）Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step（2）Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database；
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption；
（4）Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed；
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level；
（5）Compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up many societies because
Son-discharge relational expression, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, the greenhouse gases of renewal is arranged
High-volume it is input to step（4）Obtained earth system pattern model, these weathers of integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination because
Son, sets up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assesses the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced；
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step（3）The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step（1）In, it is described
Carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector by carbon satellite measured spectra data carry out inverting, obtain high-resolution, dynamic
Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Described ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, real
When carbon dioxide content detection is carried out to the air of selecting sample areas and different height, and the detection data of each monitoring point are converged
It is total to be analyzed and handled to monitoring master station, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Described moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, differently
The point CO2 emissions that flexibly multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, will be mobile using discharge-concentration mechanism
Source CO2 emissions are converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step（3）In, it is based on
General equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, world's main economic body region socioeconomic model, national society is set up
Meeting economic model, portrays the phase interaction between the main body such as the producer, government, enterprise and resident in subject area macro-economic system
With relation, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, foreign trade activity are simulated；
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set；
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
The described climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step（4）In, with step
Suddenly（2）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data in middle multi-source carbon emission database forces condition as history, with step（5）
Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, and output has spatial and temporal resolution
Climate change, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
The climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence of the present invention, is fixed using carbon satellite technology, ground
Observation technology, moving source detection technique, form multi-source carbon emission database, realize pair high price that can be expanded, can recognize that, can interact
It is worth the extraction of carbon information.Multi-source carbon emission database is introduced into climate change comprehensive assessment field, carbon information in assessment is solved
Incomplete and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, improves the accuracy and continuity of carbon number evidence in Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, effectively drop
The uncertainty of low assessment result.And in climate change comprehensive assessment modeling process, realize socioeconomic model and the earth
System model it is two-way, dynamically associate, improve climate change Socie-economic loss assessment accuracy and greenhouse gas emission
The reliability of accounting, enhances the actual directive significance of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, is that country participates in Difference on Climate Change Negotiation
Decision support is provided.
Compared with the prior art, beneficial effects of the present invention are embodied in：
The climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence of the present invention, using carbon satellite technology, ground fixed observer
Technology, moving source detection technique, form multi-source carbon emission database, realize pair high value carbon that can be expanded, can recognize that, can interact
The extraction of information.Multi-source carbon emission database is introduced into climate change comprehensive assessment field, carbon information in assessment is solved endless
Standby and discrete sex chromosome mosaicism, improves the accuracy and continuity of carbon number evidence in Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes, and effectively reduction is commented
Estimate the uncertainty of result.And in climate change comprehensive assessment modeling process, realize socioeconomic model and earth system
Pattern it is two-way, dynamically associate, set up " many social ecnomicfactors-discharges " relational expression and " many climatic factor-losses " relational expression,
Simple " fossil energy-discharge " relational expression of tradition and " temperature rise-loss " relational expression are substituted respectively, improve climate change society
The reliability that the accuracy of Economic loss evaluation and greenhouse gas emission are adjusted, enhances the reality of Integrated Assessment Models On Climatic Changes
Border directive significance, participates in Difference on Climate Change Negotiation for country and provides decision support.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is method flow schematic diagram of the invention.
Fig. 2 is socioeconomic model-earth system Mode Coupling module workflow schematic diagram of the invention.
Embodiment
As shown in figure 1, the climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, comprises the following steps：
（1）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source；
（2）Using land gas assimilation means, to step（1）In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal；
（3）Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step（2）Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database；
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption；
（4）Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed；
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level；
（5）As shown in Fig. 2 compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up
The many society's factor-discharge relational expressions, assess the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, by the temperature of renewal
Room gas emissions are input to step（4）Obtained earth system pattern model, integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination this
A little climatic factors, set up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assess the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced；
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step（3）The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
Step（1）In, carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector is obtained by carrying out inverting to carbon satellite measured spectra data
To high-resolution, dynamic global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, in real time to choosing
The air of random sample one's respective area and different height carries out carbon dioxide content detection, and by the detection data summarization of each monitoring point to supervising
Survey master station to be analyzed and handled, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, motor-driven in different location
The CO2 emissions that ground multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, using discharge-concentration mechanism by moving source dioxy
Change carbon emission amount and be converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
Step（3）In, based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, set up world economic model, world's main economic body
Region social economy model, national society's economic model, portray the producer, government, enterprise in subject area macro-economic system
Interaction relationship between the main body such as resident, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, externally
Trade activity is simulated；
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set；
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
Step（4）In, with step（2）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data conduct in middle multi-source carbon emission database
History forces condition, with step（5）Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out earth system pattern simulation real
Test, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
In the present invention, the effect of socioeconomic model is the producer, government, enterprise in simulated object Regional Macro economic System system
Interaction relationship between the main body such as industry and resident, and it is the production of various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, right
The activities such as outer trade.The effect of air component is that to portray radiation, cloud and precipitation, Atmospheric Chemistry, aerosol effect, boundary layer etc. more
The process of kind；The effect of land surface emissivity component is the biophysics for portraying the exchanges such as moisture, heat between vegetation, soil, air
Process, the ecological physiology process and soil carbon of dynamic vegetation such as decompose at the Biochemical processes；The effect of ocean component is simulation
Ocean circulation, radiation such as penetrate, saltoutd at process and the biogeochemical process；The effect of sea ice component is description sea ice freeze thawing
Process.
Claims (4)
1. the climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Comprise the following steps：
（1）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data is gathered using carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector, is fixed using ground
Observation station carbon dioxide content detector detects the ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide number of degrees of sample areas different height in real time
According to the CO2 emissions data produced using moving source CO2 emission detector detection multiclass moving source；
（2）Using land gas assimilation means, to step（1）In obtain global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data, different height
CO2 emissions data these isomeric datas progress structuring that atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration data, multiclass moving source are produced
With unstructured processing, comparison and information extraction, carbon satellite and ground observation data coupling algorithm are set up, world multi-source number is merged
According to, structure high accuracy, multiple dimensioned multi-source carbon emission database, and refine different zones CO2 emission source distribution and intensity
Characteristics of spatio-temporal；
（3）Based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world are set up
Model, national society's economic model, the design whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model, form the whole world-region-state
Family's socioeconomic model, CO2 emission produced by the activity of measuring and calculating human social economy, and utilize step（2）Obtained multi-source
The structure and parameter setting of the whole world-region-national society's economic model are checked and optimized to carbon emission database；
The economic scene of future society is set, using the whole world-region-national society's economic model after calibration, different scenes are simulated
Under the whole world, the social economic system change of region and State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, investment consume,
These many social ecnomicfactors of energy resource consumption；
（4）Air component, road surface process component, ocean component and sea ice component are coupled, earth system pattern model is formed；
Simplify the various process Parameterization Scheme in air, land face, ocean and sea ice these process components, set nested mode,
Carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, climate change of the output with spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination,
These many climatic factors of sea level；
（5）Compositive economy growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, energy resource consumption these social ecnomicfactors, set up many societies because
Son-discharge relational expression, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions change that social ecnomicfactors change is brought, the greenhouse gases of renewal is arranged
High-volume it is input to step（4）Obtained earth system pattern model, these weathers of integrated temperature, precipitation, sea level and illumination because
Son, sets up many climatic factors-loss relational expression, assesses the Socie-economic loss that climate change is produced；
The change economic loss that weather is produced is input to step（3）The obtained whole world-region-national society's economic model, weight
Structure social production consumer behavior, loop iteration are until satisfaction realizes the whole world-region-state in world maximization of welfare target
The two-way Dynamic Coupling of family's socioeconomic model and earth system pattern model, completes the climate change based on multi-source carbon number evidence comprehensive
Appraisal procedure is closed to build.
2. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step
（1）In, described carbon satellite carbon dioxide data collector obtains high score by carrying out inverting to carbon satellite measured spectra data
Resolution, dynamic global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Described ground fixed observer station carbon dioxide content detector utilizes urban air device for detection of carbon dioxide content, real
When carbon dioxide content detection is carried out to the air of selecting sample areas and different height, and the detection data of each monitoring point are converged
It is total to be analyzed and handled to monitoring master station, form ground fixed observer dense carbon dioxide degrees of data；
Described moving source CO2 emission detector utilizes vehicle exhaust CO2 emissions detection technique, differently
The point CO2 emissions that flexibly multiclass moving source of the detection comprising automobile is produced, will be mobile using discharge-concentration mechanism
Source CO2 emissions are converted into dense carbon dioxide degrees of data.
3. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step
（3）In, based on general equilibrium theory can be calculated, set up world economic model, main economic body region social economy of the world
Model, national society's economic model, portray the main body such as the producer, government, enterprise and resident in subject area macro-economic system
Between interaction relationship, and the production to various main energy sources, supply, processing conversion, consumption, foreign trade activity carry out
Simulation；
The whole world, region, the coupling mechanism of national three Scale Model are designed, the whole world-region-national society's economic model is formed, surveyed
Calculate economic growth, the industrial structure, investment consumption, the multiple-factor such as energy resource consumption and the CO2 emission supervened, and with it is many
Source carbon emission database is mutually authenticated, come check and optimize the whole world, region, national society's economic model structure and parameter
Set；
Set the economic scene of future society, using the socioeconomic model after calibration, simulate the whole world under different scenes, region and
The social economic system change of State-level, calculate the future economy growths, the industrial structure, invest consumption, energy resource consumption etc. these
Social ecnomicfactors.
4. the climate change comprehensive estimation method according to claim 1 based on multi-source carbon number evidence, it is characterised in that：Step
（4）In, with step（2）Global atmosphere dense carbon dioxide degrees of data in middle multi-source carbon emission database forces bar as history
Part, with step（5）Greenhouse Gas Emission amount will force condition as future, carry out the experiment of earth system pattern simulation, output tool
There are the climate change of spatial and temporal resolution, including temperature, precipitation, illumination, these many climatic factors of sea level.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710224608.6A CN107016095B (en) | 2017-04-07 | 2017-04-07 | Climate change comprehensive evaluation method based on multi-source carbon data |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710224608.6A CN107016095B (en) | 2017-04-07 | 2017-04-07 | Climate change comprehensive evaluation method based on multi-source carbon data |
Publications (2)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN107016095A true CN107016095A (en) | 2017-08-04 |
| CN107016095B CN107016095B (en) | 2021-06-15 |
Family
ID=59445455
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710224608.6A Active CN107016095B (en) | 2017-04-07 | 2017-04-07 | Climate change comprehensive evaluation method based on multi-source carbon data |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN107016095B (en) |
Cited By (10)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108108845A (en) * | 2017-12-28 | 2018-06-01 | 广西南宁荣威德新能源科技有限公司 | Urban waterlogging forecasting system based on monitoring vehicle exhaust discharge capacity |
| CN108120661A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-06-05 | 北京理工大学 | Particle content spatial and temporal distributions assay method in a kind of urban air |
| CN110348074A (en) * | 2019-06-19 | 2019-10-18 | 北京理工大学 | The method and device of climate change risk partition |
| CN111027175A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-04-17 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Method for evaluating social and economic influences of flood based on coupling model integrated simulation |
| CN111178789A (en) * | 2020-02-17 | 2020-05-19 | 北京师范大学 | Agricultural greenhouse gas evaluation method oriented to water-soil-energy comprehensive management |
| CN111598407A (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2020-08-28 | 国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心) | Carbon satellite task planning system and method |
| CN113435512A (en) * | 2021-06-28 | 2021-09-24 | 内蒙古师范大学 | Multi-satellite multi-source XCO2Data fusion method and system |
| CN113780685A (en) * | 2021-10-20 | 2021-12-10 | 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 | Climate loss parameter prediction method and device based on non-uniform mechanism |
| CN113837912A (en) * | 2021-09-03 | 2021-12-24 | 南京工业大学 | Method for analyzing influence factors of carbon emission in construction industry |
| CN114662320A (en) * | 2022-03-28 | 2022-06-24 | 王大成 | Carbon emission detection system based on satellite observation |
Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20110277474A1 (en) * | 2010-02-02 | 2011-11-17 | Constantz Brent R | Methods and systems using natural gas power plant |
| CN103413253A (en) * | 2013-09-04 | 2013-11-27 | 国家电网公司 | Method for performing classification prediction on annual maximum load based on economical and meteorological factors |
| CN104765903A (en) * | 2015-01-27 | 2015-07-08 | 中国科学院城市环境研究所 | Comprehensive urban climate environment assessment method integrated with multiple-source remote sensing and climate environment information |
| CN105956688A (en) * | 2016-04-22 | 2016-09-21 | 中国科学院大学 | Method and device for predicting variation trend of atmospheric carbon concentration and temperature |
| CN106203671A (en) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-12-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change |
| CN106227706A (en) * | 2016-07-25 | 2016-12-14 | 河海大学 | A kind of many climatic models output aggregation of data correction and uncertain appraisal procedure |
-
2017
- 2017-04-07 CN CN201710224608.6A patent/CN107016095B/en active Active
Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20110277474A1 (en) * | 2010-02-02 | 2011-11-17 | Constantz Brent R | Methods and systems using natural gas power plant |
| CN103413253A (en) * | 2013-09-04 | 2013-11-27 | 国家电网公司 | Method for performing classification prediction on annual maximum load based on economical and meteorological factors |
| CN104765903A (en) * | 2015-01-27 | 2015-07-08 | 中国科学院城市环境研究所 | Comprehensive urban climate environment assessment method integrated with multiple-source remote sensing and climate environment information |
| CN105956688A (en) * | 2016-04-22 | 2016-09-21 | 中国科学院大学 | Method and device for predicting variation trend of atmospheric carbon concentration and temperature |
| CN106203671A (en) * | 2016-06-22 | 2016-12-07 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | A kind of surface water quality response analysis method to climate change |
| CN106227706A (en) * | 2016-07-25 | 2016-12-14 | 河海大学 | A kind of many climatic models output aggregation of data correction and uncertain appraisal procedure |
Non-Patent Citations (2)
| Title |
|---|
| WANG WEI-YU ET AL.: ""Low Carbon Economy Evaluation Index System and Development Evaluation of Hebei"", 《IEEE》 * |
| 朱有志 等: ""发展低碳经济 应对气候变化--低碳经济及其评价指标"", 《中国国情国力》 * |
Cited By (13)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108120661A (en) * | 2017-12-19 | 2018-06-05 | 北京理工大学 | Particle content spatial and temporal distributions assay method in a kind of urban air |
| CN108108845A (en) * | 2017-12-28 | 2018-06-01 | 广西南宁荣威德新能源科技有限公司 | Urban waterlogging forecasting system based on monitoring vehicle exhaust discharge capacity |
| CN110348074A (en) * | 2019-06-19 | 2019-10-18 | 北京理工大学 | The method and device of climate change risk partition |
| CN111027175A (en) * | 2019-11-06 | 2020-04-17 | 中国地质大学（武汉） | Method for evaluating social and economic influences of flood based on coupling model integrated simulation |
| CN111178789A (en) * | 2020-02-17 | 2020-05-19 | 北京师范大学 | Agricultural greenhouse gas evaluation method oriented to water-soil-energy comprehensive management |
| CN111598407B (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2023-09-01 | 国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心) | System and method for planning carbon satellite task |
| CN111598407A (en) * | 2020-04-22 | 2020-08-28 | 国家卫星气象中心(国家空间天气监测预警中心) | Carbon satellite task planning system and method |
| CN113435512A (en) * | 2021-06-28 | 2021-09-24 | 内蒙古师范大学 | Multi-satellite multi-source XCO2Data fusion method and system |
| CN113837912A (en) * | 2021-09-03 | 2021-12-24 | 南京工业大学 | Method for analyzing influence factors of carbon emission in construction industry |
| CN113837912B (en) * | 2021-09-03 | 2023-09-26 | 南京工业大学 | Analysis method for influence factors of carbon emission in construction industry |
| CN113780685A (en) * | 2021-10-20 | 2021-12-10 | 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 | Climate loss parameter prediction method and device based on non-uniform mechanism |
| CN113780685B (en) * | 2021-10-20 | 2023-10-13 | 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院 | Climate loss parameter prediction method and device based on non-uniform mechanism |
| CN114662320A (en) * | 2022-03-28 | 2022-06-24 | 王大成 | Carbon emission detection system based on satellite observation |
Also Published As
| Publication number | Publication date |
|---|---|
| CN107016095B (en) | 2021-06-15 |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN107016095A (en) | Climate change comprehensive estimation method based on multi-source carbon number evidence | |
| CN105988146B (en) | A kind of application data processing method of satellite-borne microwave radiometer | |
| He et al. | Development of a vehicle emission inventory with high temporal–spatial resolution based on NRT traffic data and its impact on air pollution in Beijing–Part 2: Impact of vehicle emission on urban air quality | |
| CN111666656A (en) | Rainfall estimation method and rainfall monitoring system based on microwave rainfall attenuation | |
| CN102507586B (en) | Remote sensing monitoring method for carbon emission | |
| CN102096072B (en) | Method for automatically measuring urban parts | |
| CN104881546A (en) | Method for improving prediction efficiency of atmospheric pollution model | |
| CN108536908A (en) | Method based on the assessment of non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus loss risk watershed water environment safety | |
| CN106372730A (en) | Machine learning-based vegetation net primary production remote sensing estimation method | |
| Huang et al. | A new air quality forecasting model using data mining and artificial neural network | |
| CN111178786B (en) | Emission source position determining method and system for guaranteeing regional air quality | |
| CN110489719A (en) | Wind speed forecasting method based on DATA PROCESSING IN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM data | |
| CN113610243A (en) | Atmospheric pollutant tracing method based on coupled machine learning and correlation analysis | |
| CN114493052B (en) | Multi-model fusion self-adaptive new energy power prediction method and system | |
| Messerschmidt et al. | Evaluation of seasonal atmosphere–biosphere exchange estimations with TCCON measurements | |
| Zimnoch et al. | Assessing surface fluxes of CO2 and CH4 in urban environment: a reconnaissance study in Krakow, Southern Poland | |
| CN116070839A (en) | Multi-source data road micro-environment air quality contribution tracing method | |
| CN108764527B (en) | Screening method for soil organic carbon library time-space dynamic prediction optimal environment variables | |
| CN115329425A (en) | Air quality driven building group form optimization design method and system | |
| Harris et al. | The characteristics of the Chicago lake breeze and its effects on trace particle transport: Results from an episodic event simulation | |
| CN114417728A (en) | Near-surface air temperature inversion method based on temperature, emissivity and deep learning | |
| CN108510097B (en) | Power transmission line corridor snow disaster monitoring method and system based on satellite remote sensing | |
| AU2021100706A4 (en) | An Integrated Assessment Method of Climate Change Based on Multi-Source Carbon Data | |
| CN115392137B (en) | Three-dimensional simulation system based on karst water and soil coupling effect that sinks | |
| CN114707344B (en) | Permafrost active layer thickness calculation method based on system dynamics |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant | ||
| GR01 | Patent grant |