CN106786789B - Microgrid generated energy real-time control system and method - Google Patents
Microgrid generated energy real-time control system and method Download PDFInfo
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- CN106786789B CN106786789B CN201611014018.2A CN201611014018A CN106786789B CN 106786789 B CN106786789 B CN 106786789B CN 201611014018 A CN201611014018 A CN 201611014018A CN 106786789 B CN106786789 B CN 106786789B
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- 230000005611 electricity Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 95
- 238000010248 power generation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 50
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 claims description 8
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- 238000005286 illumination Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 238000012549 training Methods 0.000 claims description 6
- 230000002159 abnormal effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
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Classifications
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J3/00—Circuit arrangements for ac mains or ac distribution networks
- H02J3/38—Arrangements for parallely feeding a single network by two or more generators, converters or transformers
- H02J3/46—Controlling of the sharing of output between the generators, converters, or transformers
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- H02J3/383—
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- H02J3/386—
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
- H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
- H02J2203/00—Indexing scheme relating to details of circuit arrangements for AC mains or AC distribution networks
- H02J2203/20—Simulating, e g planning, reliability check, modelling or computer assisted design [CAD]
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/50—Photovoltaic [PV] energy
- Y02E10/56—Power conversion systems, e.g. maximum power point trackers
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/70—Wind energy
- Y02E10/76—Power conversion electric or electronic aspects
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Abstract
The present invention relates to a kind of microgrid generated energy real-time control system and methods; the electricity consumption in the following certain time is predicted according to history electricity consumption data; the generated energy in the following certain time is predicted according to history generated energy data; when predicting that generated energy is greater than 1.3 times of prediction electricity consumption; control section thermal power generation unit is shut down; and when real-time generated energy is less than real-time electricity consumption, issues sound-light alarm and start the thermal power generation unit shut down.The present invention can reduce the waste of generated energy, improve the utilization rate of generation of electricity by new energy, while reduce the carbon discharge capacity of thermal power generation unit, not only be able to achieve the reliable power supply of micro-capacitance sensor, but also can be reduced the environmental pollution of micro-capacitance sensor.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of intelligent control technology, in particular to a kind of microgrid generated energy real-time control system and method.
Background technique
Micro-capacitance sensor is a kind of new network structure, is one group and is made of micro battery, load, energy-storage system and control device
System unit.Exploitation and extension micro-capacitance sensor can sufficiently promote the extensive access of distributed generation resource and renewable energy, realize
Highly reliable supply to load various energy resources form is a kind of effective means for realizing active power distribution network, be traditional power grid to
The transition of smart grid.
In the micro-capacitance sensor that the generations of electricity by new energy device such as wind power generating set and photovoltaic battery array access traditional power grid is constituted
In, in order to realize the reliable and stable power supply of micro-capacitance sensor, it will usually which traditional thermal power generation unit to be in often for state, wind-force hair
The electric power that the generations of electricity by new energy device such as motor group and photovoltaic battery array generates is generally only to be stored in energy-storage system to be used for
The electricity shortage of peak times of power consumption supplement thermal power generation unit.This power supply mode still based on thermal power generation, send out by new energy
The electricity utilization rate that electric installation generates is relatively low, cannot maximumlly utilize new energy, can not realize new energy environmental protection
The purpose of green power supply.
Summary of the invention
In view of the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides a kind of microgrid generated energy real-time control system and method, by with
The prediction of electricity and generated energy, when predicting generated energy much larger than prediction electricity consumption, control section thermal power generation unit is shut down, and
When real-time generated energy is less than real-time electricity consumption, start the thermal power generation unit shut down, to improve the benefit of generation of electricity by new energy
With rate, the carbon discharge capacity of thermal power generation unit is reduced, the reliable power supply of micro-capacitance sensor had not only been able to achieve, but also can be reduced environmental pollution.
The technical solution of the invention is as follows: the microgrid generated energy real-time control system includes main control unit, host computer, touching
Control display screen, alarm module, intelligent electric meter and multiple electric quantity acquisition/control devices, the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device point
Be not connected to wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, to wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and
The real-time generated energy of thermal power generation unit is detected, and the intelligent electric meter detects the real-time electricity consumption of user, described
Main control unit is connected respectively to the host computer, the touching display screen, the alarm module, the intelligent electric meter and described more
A electric quantity acquisition/control device is obtained the real-time electricity consumption of user by the intelligent electric meter, is adopted by the multiple electricity
Collection/control device obtains the real-time power generation of the wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and the thermal power generation unit
Amount, and generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy is generated by the electricity consumption of acquisition and generated energy, control instruction is issued to described more
A electric quantity acquisition/control device, the main control unit also issue abnormal signal when real-time generated energy is lower than real-time electricity consumption, from
And sound and light alarm signal is issued by the alarm module, the main control unit also passes through the touching display screen to real-time power generation
Amount and real-time electricity consumption are shown that user can select display content by the touching display screen, the master control
Unit is also communicated by 4G, WLAN and Bluetooth wireless communication mode with the host computer, by the generated energy, the electricity consumption
Amount and the generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy upload to the host computer, and the host computer supervises the main control unit in real time
Control.
Wherein, the main control unit further comprises storage unit, load estimation unit, power quantity predicting unit, generated energy
The history of control unit and control signal transmitting element, the user that the storage unit is used to detect the intelligent electric meter is used
The wind power generating set that electricity data and the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device detect, the photovoltaic battery array
It is stored with the history generated energy data of the thermal power generation unit, the load estimation unit obtains in the storage unit
User history electricity consumption data and predict the electricity consumption in the following certain time according to the history electricity consumption data, it is described
Power quantity predicting unit obtains the wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and firepower hair in the storage unit
The history generated energy data of motor group simultaneously predict the generated energy in the following certain time according to the history generated energy data, described
Generated energy control unit generates generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy by the predicted value of above-mentioned electricity consumption and the predicted value of generated energy, and
The multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device is handed down to by the control signal transmitting element.
Wherein, the intelligent electric meter further includes electrical measurement module, communication module and wireless module, and the electricity is surveyed
It measures module to be used to carry out real-time measurement to the electricity consumption of electrical equipment, the communication module is optic module, and measurement is obtained
Electricity consumption data be sent to main control unit in real time, the wireless module is WIFI module, 4G module or bluetooth module, for for
The network equipment provides network insertion and route service.
Wherein, the power quantity predicting unit is according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination in one hour future of photovoltaic battery array
Generated energy predicted, according to air force and air pressure level it is one hour following to wind power generating set in generated energy carry out
Prediction, and the rated capacity of thermal power generation unit is combined to obtain the prediction generated energy in entire one hour future of micro-capacitance sensor.
Wherein, the load estimation unit is using accumulating ARMA model to the electricity consumption in one hour future
Amount is predicted, when predicting that output power is greater than 1.3 times of prediction electricity consumption, generated energy control unit control section fire
Power generator group is shut down.
The invention further relates to a kind of microgrid generated energy real-time control methods, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) the real-time generated energy for obtaining wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, obtains user's
Real-time electricity consumption；
(2) to the power generation of the electricity consumption data and wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit of user
Amount data are stored；
(3) electricity consumption in the following certain time is predicted according to history electricity consumption data, according to history generated energy data
Predict the generated energy in the following certain time；
(4) judge to predict 1.3 times that whether generated energy is greater than prediction electricity consumption, if so, (5) are entered step, if it is not, then
Return step (1)；
(5) control section thermal power generation unit is shut down；
(6) judge whether the real-time generated energy of micro-capacitance sensor is less than the real-time electricity consumption of user, if so, (7) are entered step,
If it is not, then return step (1)；
(7) alarm signal is issued, and starts the thermal power generation unit shut down, return step (1).
Wherein, predict that the generated energy in the following certain time is specific according to history generated energy data in the step (3)
To be predicted according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination the generated energy in one hour future of photovoltaic battery array, according to air quantity
Size and air pressure level predict the generated energy in one hour future of wind power generating set, and combine thermal power generation unit
Rated capacity obtains the prediction generated energy in entire one hour future of micro-capacitance sensor；The generated energy prediction model of photovoltaic battery array isX=[M (t-i), T (t), H (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i) indicates the t-i moment
Photovoltaic battery array actual power generation, T (t) indicate t moment environment temperature, H (t) indicate t moment intensity of illumination, t's
Value range is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, is made for 24 hours, l is number of training, αiFor weight vector, K (xi,xj) it is kernel function,
M ∈ R is deviation；The generated energy prediction model of wind power generating set isX=[M (t-i), W
(t), P (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i) indicates that the wind power generating set actual power generation at t-i moment, W (t) indicate t
The air force at moment, P (t) indicate the air pressure level of t moment, and the value range of t is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, make for 24 hours, l
For number of training, βiFor weight vector, K (xi,xj) it is kernel function, n ∈ R is deviation.
Wherein, predict that the electricity consumption in the following certain time is specific according to history electricity consumption data in the step (3)
For electricity demand forecasting model isWherein, B is backward shift operator, For autoregression model regression coefficient, p is autoregression model order,For d order difference operator,For period difference
Operator, YtFor t moment load value, θ (B)=1- θ1B-…θqBq, θiFor moving average model(MA model) regression coefficient, q is rolling average mould
Type order, etFor white noise.
The generated energy real-time control system and method for micro-capacitance sensor comprising honourable power station of the invention use above-mentioned technology hand
Section, can reach following technical effect: reduce the waste of generated energy, improve the utilization rate of generation of electricity by new energy, while reduce firepower
The carbon discharge capacity of generating set, had not only been able to achieve the reliable power supply of micro-capacitance sensor, but also can be reduced the environmental pollution of micro-capacitance sensor.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is microgrid generated energy real-time control system structural block diagram of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the structural schematic diagram of main control unit；
Fig. 3 is the flow chart of microgrid generated energy real-time control method of the invention.
Specific embodiment
A specific embodiment of the invention is elaborated with reference to the accompanying drawing.
As shown in Figure 1, microgrid generated energy real-time control system of the invention includes that main control unit, host computer, touch-control are shown
Screen, alarm module, intelligent electric meter and multiple electric quantity acquisition/control devices, the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device are separately connected
To wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and firepower are sent out
The real-time generated energy of motor group is detected, and the intelligent electric meter detects the real-time electricity consumption of user, the master control list
Member is connected respectively to the host computer, the touching display screen, the alarm module, the intelligent electric meter and the multiple electricity
Acquisition/control device is obtained the real-time electricity consumption of user by the intelligent electric meter, passes through the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control
Device processed obtains the real-time generated energy of the wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and the thermal power generation unit, and
Generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy is generated by the electricity consumption and generated energy of acquisition, and control instruction is issued to the multiple electricity
Acquisition/control device, the main control unit also issues abnormal signal when real-time generated energy is lower than real-time electricity consumption, to pass through
The alarm module issues sound and light alarm signal, and the main control unit is also by the touching display screen to real-time generated energy and reality
When electricity consumption shown, user can by the touching display screen to display content select, the main control unit is also
It is communicated by 4G, WLAN and Bluetooth wireless communication mode with the host computer, by the generated energy, the electricity consumption and institute
It states generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy and uploads to the host computer, the host computer monitors the main control unit in real time.
As shown in Fig. 2, the main control unit further comprises storage unit, load estimation unit, power quantity predicting unit, hair
Electricity control unit and control signal transmitting element, the user's that the storage unit is used to detect the intelligent electric meter goes through
The wind power generating set that history electricity consumption data and the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device detect, the photovoltaic cell
The history generated energy data of array and the thermal power generation unit are stored, and it is single that the load estimation unit obtains the storage
The history electricity consumption data of user in member simultaneously predict the electricity consumption in the following certain time according to the history electricity consumption data,
The power quantity predicting unit obtains the wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and the fire in the storage unit
The history generated energy data of power generator group simultaneously predict the generated energy in the following certain time according to the history generated energy data,
The generated energy control unit generates generated energy real-time control plan by the predicted value of above-mentioned electricity consumption and the predicted value of generated energy
Slightly, and the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device is handed down to by the control signal transmitting element.
Wherein, the intelligent electric meter further includes electrical measurement module, communication module and wireless module, and the electricity is surveyed
It measures module to be used to carry out real-time measurement to the electricity consumption of electrical equipment, the communication module is optic module, and measurement is obtained
Electricity consumption data be sent to main control unit in real time, the wireless module is WIFI module, 4G module or bluetooth module, for for
The network equipment provides network insertion and route service.
Wherein, the power quantity predicting unit is according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination in one hour future of photovoltaic battery array
Generated energy predicted, according to air force and air pressure level it is one hour following to wind power generating set in generated energy carry out
Prediction, and the rated capacity of thermal power generation unit is combined to obtain the prediction generated energy in entire one hour future of micro-capacitance sensor.
Wherein, the load estimation unit is using accumulating ARMA model to the electricity consumption in one hour future
Amount is predicted, when predicting that output power is greater than 1.3 times of prediction electricity consumption, generated energy control unit control section fire
Power generator group is shut down.
As shown in figure 3, micro-capacitance sensor generated energy real-time control method of the invention, specifically includes the following steps:
(1) the real-time generated energy for obtaining wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, obtains user's
Real-time electricity consumption；
(2) to the power generation of the electricity consumption data and wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit of user
Amount data are stored；
(3) electricity consumption in the following certain time is predicted according to history electricity consumption data, according to history generated energy data
Predict the generated energy in the following certain time；
(4) judge to predict 1.3 times that whether generated energy is greater than prediction electricity consumption, if so, (5) are entered step, if it is not, then
Return step (1)；
(5) control section thermal power generation unit is shut down；
(6) judge whether the real-time generated energy of micro-capacitance sensor is less than the real-time electricity consumption of user, if so, (7) are entered step,
If it is not, then return step (1)；
(7) alarm signal is issued, and starts the thermal power generation unit shut down, return step (1).
Wherein, predict that the generated energy in the following certain time is specific according to history generated energy data in the step (3)
To be predicted according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination the generated energy in one hour future of photovoltaic battery array, according to air quantity
Size and air pressure level predict the generated energy in one hour future of wind power generating set, and combine thermal power generation unit
Rated capacity obtains the prediction generated energy in entire one hour future of micro-capacitance sensor.The generated energy prediction model of photovoltaic battery array isX=[M (t-i), T (t), H (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i) indicates the t-i moment
Photovoltaic battery array actual power generation, T (t) indicate t moment environment temperature, H (t) indicate t moment intensity of illumination, t's
Value range is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, is made for 24 hours, l is number of training, αiFor weight vector, K (xi,xj) it is kernel function,
M ∈ R is deviation；The generated energy prediction model of wind power generating set isX=[M (t-i), W
(t), P (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i) indicates that the wind power generating set actual power generation at t-i moment, W (t) indicate t
The air force at moment, P (t) indicate the air pressure level of t moment, and the value range of t is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, make for 24 hours, l
For number of training, βiFor weight vector, K (xi,xj) it is kernel function, n ∈ R is deviation.
Wherein, predict that the electricity consumption in the following certain time is specific according to history electricity consumption data in the step (3)
For electricity demand forecasting model isWherein, B is backward shift operator,
For autoregression model regression coefficient, p is autoregression model order,For d order difference operator,For the calculation of period difference
Son, YtFor t moment load value, θ (B)=1- θ1B-…θqBq, θiFor moving average model(MA model) regression coefficient, q is moving average model(MA model)
Order, etFor white noise.
Finally, it is stated that only illustrating technical solution of the present invention rather than its limitations in conjunction with above-described embodiment.Affiliated neck
The those of ordinary skill in domain it is to be understood that those skilled in the art can modify to a specific embodiment of the invention or
Person's equivalent replacement, but these modifications or change are being applied among pending claims.
Claims (3)
1. microgrid generated energy real-time control system, the generated energy real-time control system includes that main control unit, host computer, touch-control are aobvious
Display screen, alarm module, intelligent electric meter and multiple electric quantity acquisition/control devices；The multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device connects respectively
It is connected to wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, to wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and firepower
The real-time generated energy of generating set is detected；The intelligent electric meter detects the real-time electricity consumption of user；The master control
Unit is connected respectively to the host computer, the touching display screen, the alarm module, the intelligent electric meter and the multiple electricity
Measure acquisition/control device, by the intelligent electric meter obtain user real-time electricity consumption, by the multiple electric quantity acquisition/
Control device obtains the real-time generated energy of the wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and the thermal power generation unit,
And generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy is generated by the electricity consumption of acquisition and generated energy, control instruction is issued to the multiple electricity
Acquisition/control device is measured, the main control unit also issues abnormal signal when real-time generated energy is lower than real-time electricity consumption, thus logical
Cross the alarm module and issue sound and light alarm signal, the main control unit also pass through the touching display screen to real-time generated energy and
Real-time electricity consumption is shown that user can select display content by the touching display screen, the main control unit
Also communicated by 4G, WLAN and Bluetooth wireless communication mode with the host computer, by the generated energy, the electricity consumption and
The generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy uploads to the host computer；The host computer monitors the main control unit in real time；
The main control unit further comprises storage unit, load estimation unit, power quantity predicting unit, generated energy control unit and control
Signal transmitting unit, history electricity consumption data for the user that the storage unit is used to detect the intelligent electric meter and described
The wind power generating set, the photovoltaic battery array and the thermal power generation that multiple electric quantity acquisition/control devices detect
The history generated energy data of unit are stored, and the history that the load estimation unit obtains the user in the storage unit is used
Electricity data simultaneously predicts that the electricity consumption in the following certain time, the power quantity predicting unit obtain according to the history electricity consumption data
The history of the wind power generating set in the storage unit, the photovoltaic battery array and the thermal power generation unit is taken to send out
Electricity data simultaneously predicts the generated energy in the following certain time, the generated energy control unit according to the history generated energy data
Generated energy Real-Time Control Strategy is generated by the predicted value of above-mentioned electricity consumption and the predicted value of generated energy, and is believed by the control
Number transmission unit is handed down to the multiple electric quantity acquisition/control device；The intelligent electric meter further include electrical measurement module,
Communication module and wireless module, the electrical measurement module is used to carry out real-time measurement to the electricity consumption of electrical equipment, described logical
Letter module is optic module, sends main control unit in real time for the electricity consumption data that measurement obtains, the wireless module is
WIFI module, 4G module or bluetooth module, for providing network insertion and route service for the network equipment；The power quantity predicting list
Member predicts generated energy in one hour future of photovoltaic battery array according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination, according to air force
The generated energy in one hour future of wind power generating set is predicted with air pressure level, and combines the specified of thermal power generation unit
Capacity obtains the prediction generated energy in entire one hour future of micro-capacitance sensor；The load estimation unit is moved using accumulating autoregression
Dynamic averaging model predicts the electricity consumption in one hour future, is greater than 1.3 times of prediction electricity consumption in prediction output power
When, generated energy control unit control section thermal power generation unit is shut down；Control based on microgrid generated energy real-time control system
Method processed specifically includes the following steps:
(1) the real-time generated energy for obtaining wind power generating set, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit, obtains the real-time of user
Electricity consumption；
(2) to the generated energy number of the electricity consumption data and wind power generating set of user, photovoltaic battery array and thermal power generation unit
According to being stored；
(3) electricity consumption in the following certain time is predicted according to history electricity consumption data, predicted according to history generated energy data
Generated energy in the following certain time；
(4) judge to predict 1.3 times that whether generated energy is greater than prediction electricity consumption, if so, (5) are entered step, if it is not, then returning
Step (1)；
(5) control section thermal power generation unit is shut down；
(6) judge whether the real-time generated energy of micro-capacitance sensor is less than the real-time electricity consumption of user, if so, (7) are entered step, if
It is no, then return step (1)；
(7) alarm signal is issued, and starts the thermal power generation unit shut down, return step (1)；Basis in the step (3)
History generated energy data predict that the generated energy in the following certain time is specifically, according to environment temperature and intensity of illumination to photovoltaic
Generated energy in cell array is one hour following is predicted, according to air force and air pressure level to wind power generating set future
Generated energy in one hour is predicted, and it is one hour following to combine the rated capacity of thermal power generation unit to obtain entire micro-capacitance sensor
Interior prediction generated energy.
2. microgrid generated energy real-time control system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the power generation of photovoltaic battery array
Measuring prediction model isX=[M (t-i), T (t), H (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i)
Indicate that the photovoltaic battery array actual power generation at t-i moment, T (t) indicate the environment temperature of t moment, H (t) indicates the light of t moment
According to intensity, the value range of t is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, is made for 24 hours, l is number of training, αiFor weight vector, K (xi,
xj) it is kernel function, m ∈ R is deviation；The generated energy prediction model of wind power generating set isX=
[M (t-i), W (t), P (t)] (i=0,1,2), wherein M (t-i) indicates the wind power generating set actual power generation at t-i moment, W
(t) indicate that the air force of t moment, P (t) indicate the air pressure level of t moment, the value range of t is 0,1,2 ... ... 23, is 24
Hour system, l is number of training, βiFor weight vector, K (xi,xj) it is kernel function, n ∈ R is deviation.
3. microgrid generated energy real-time control system according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: basis in the step (3)
History electricity consumption data predict that the electricity consumption in the following certain time is specifically that electricity demand forecasting model isWherein, B is backward shift operator, It is returned for autoregression model and is
Number, p are autoregression model order,For d order difference operator,For period difference operator, YtFor t moment load value,
θ (B)=1- θ1B-…θqBq, θiFor moving average model(MA model) regression coefficient, q is moving average model(MA model) order, etFor white noise.
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| CN109412200B (en) * | 2018-10-24 | 2021-12-10 | 安徽科达售电有限公司 | Access control system for renewable energy power generation |
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