CN106355274A - Auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision - Google Patents
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Abstract
This invention provides decision makers with an auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision serving as a basis of decision making. The auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision comprises a basic module database used for storing historical flood hydrograph and relevant rainfall amount as well as rainfall duration of each historical flood hydrograph; a basic database used to store units parameters; a flood forecasting module to forecast flood by scaling the adopted historical flood hydrograph in according with the total rainfall amount and rainfall duration predicted by weather forecast; a flood dispatching module used to set present parameters of flood releasing units and flood releasing facilities to simulate flood defense dispatching accordingly as well as in according with the total rainfall amount and rainfall duration predicted by weather forecast and the historical flood hydrograph. The auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision applicates to a technology field of computer-based flood defense dispatching.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technical field that Dispatching Flood is combined with computer utility, particularly relate to a kind of flood-control scheduling and determine
Plan aid system.
Background technology
Flood-control scheduling refers to that in a planned way real-time processing flood is to reach with the facility in flood control works or flood control system
The optimal effectiveness of flood control.The main purpose of flood-control scheduling is that deduction and exemption flood is caused harm, and also will suitably take into account other comprehensive utilizations simultaneously
Require, for example, while hydroelectric power plant's flood control, mainly take into account power benefit.At present, each reservoir of China, in River Hydrology materials compilation
Existing each field flood hydrograph, studies to flood-control scheduling strategy in order to people.
In recent years, medium-and small-sized rivers became increasingly conspicuous because of the disaster problem that rainfall causes flood, carried out flood forecasting work,
The spirit of people's information, situation being made bright, having the initiative in hands all the time in fight the flood, thus establishing the solid foundation of flood control and disaster reduction.
In prior art, real-time prediction refers to using real-time hydrologic data, the hydrologic regime in following certain period be carried out
Qualitative or quantitative prediction, it is for instance possible to use Xinanjiang model of comparative maturity etc., relies on the hydrometric station real-time monitoring laid
Carry out Real-time Flood Forecasting, forecast result is reliable, but real-time prediction be it is therefore foreseen that the phase is short in the case that rainfall occurs,
It is unfavorable for carrying out pre-scheduling.And existing false intend forecast be artificial the rainfall of future time period is carried out estimate according to weather condition and
Prediction, typically more adopt uniform rainfall, be evenly distributed, the mode of angular distribution, the false rainfall intending forecast and actual rainfall
Quite different, general forecasting result is less than normal, is unfavorable for flood-control scheduling.
Content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), to solve prior art institute
The real-time prediction leading time existing is short, the false plan inaccurate problem of forecast result.
For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the embodiment of the present invention provides a kind of flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), comprising: basis
Model database, basic database, flood forecast module and Dispatching Flood module；
Described basic model data base, corresponding total for storing historical flood graph and each historical flood graph
Rainfall and rain time span, wherein, described historical flood graph includes: model flood hydrograph and design flood process
Line；
Described basic database, for storing unit parameter and release floodwatering facility parameter；
Described flood forecast module, for choosing historical flood graph from described basic model data base, and according to
Total rainfall of forecast and rain time span, zoom in and out to the historical flood graph chosen, flood are entered
Row forecast；
Described Dispatching Flood module, arranges flood discharge unit and release floodwatering facility for Selecting All Parameters from described basic database
Parameter current, and according to setting flood discharge unit and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast and
The historical flood graph of rain time span and selection, is simulated flood-control scheduling to flood.
Further, described system also includes: basic model typing module；
Described basic model typing module, for by the title of each historical flood graph, total rainfall, rain time
And the reservoir inflow of each time period of each historical flood graph is entered in described basic model data base.
Further, described system also includes: basic model import modul；
Described basic model import modul, for recording the title having each historical flood graph, total rainfall, fall
The file of the reservoir inflow of each time period of rain time and each historical flood graph imports to described basic model data
In storehouse.
Further, described flood forecast module, for the total rainfall according to forecast and rain time across
Degree and the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen and rain time span, to the historical flood graph pair chosen
The flood peak answered and peb process time are zoomed in or out, between the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak are current and
SEA LEVEL VARIATION, wherein, described flood peak includes: the reservoir inflow of each period.
Further, described flood forecast module, for obtaining current water level, according to the current water level obtaining, sky
Total rainfall of gas forecast forecast and rain time span and the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen and rainfall
Time span, zooms in or out to the corresponding flood peak of described historical flood graph and peb process time chosen, in advance
Between magnanimity in the following predetermined period of report, flood peak, peak are current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION.
Further, described flood forecast module, for the real time water level according to Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting or knot
Shu Shuiwei, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span and the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen
Amount and rain time span, to choose the corresponding flood peak of described historical flood graph and the peb process time reduced or
Amplify, between the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak are current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION, wherein, described end water level refers in real time
The last moment water level of flood forecasting Process Forecasting.
Further, described Dispatching Flood module, specifically for obtaining current water level, according to the current water obtaining
Position, setting flood discharge unit and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span and
The historical flood graph chosen, is simulated flood-control scheduling to flood.
Further, described Dispatching Flood module, specifically for according to Real-time Flood Forecasting process water level or terminate water level,
The flood discharge unit of setting and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span and selection
Historical flood graph, to flood be simulated flood-control scheduling.
Further, during previous simulation flood-control scheduling, suspended by pause button and work as described in being carrying out
Previous simulation flood-control scheduling process, the change flood discharge unit of described setting and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, after change
Flood discharge unit and the parameter of release floodwatering facility, continue executing with described when previous simulation flood-control scheduling process.
Further, the type of described file is excel.
The having the beneficial effect that of the technique scheme of the present invention:
In such scheme, by using historical flood graph, embodying flood control by reservoir regulation rough sledding, and it is pre- to combine weather
Total rainfall of report forecast and rain time span carry out flood forecasting and simulation flood-control scheduling, display flood and SEA LEVEL VARIATION mistake
Journey, draws flood peak or peak level that the reservoir areas such as reservoir or river course are likely to occur, can quickly judge the reservoir areas such as reservoir or river course
Flood-proofing terrain, and forecast result accurately, leading time long, be easy to take effective scheduling scheme to policymaker before rainfall does not occur
There is provided decision-making foundation, thus reducing the impact of flood damage further.
Brief description
Fig. 1 is the structural representation of flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) provided in an embodiment of the present invention；
Fig. 2 is flood-control scheduling interface provided in an embodiment of the present invention schematic diagram；
Fig. 3 is the interface schematic diagram of manual typing flood hydrograph provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
For making the technical problem to be solved in the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing and tool
Body embodiment is described in detail.
The present invention is directed to that existing real-time prediction leading time is short, the false plan inaccurate problem of forecast result, provides a kind of anti-
Flood scheduling decision aid system.
In the present embodiment, for a better understanding of the present invention, first to flood hydrograph, model flood hydrograph, design flood
These three terms of water graph illustrate:
Described flood hydrograph is used for reflecting the process of flood discharge time to time change, each reservoir of China, River Hydrology
Existing each field flood hydrograph in materials compilation.Described flood hydrograph includes: crest discharge, flood volume, rises to rise and goes through
When, water-break last and the flood hydrograph such as peak shape principal element, can reflect flood from increase to the full mistake of water-break
Journey.
Described model flood hydrograph is in line with unfavorable to flood control by reservoir regulation, chooses peak height amount greatly, formant magnanimity is concentrated
Big vast hydrograph.
Described designed flood hydrograph is the time dependent curve of flood discharge meeting predetermined design standard, described sets
The model flood hydrograph that meter flood hydrograph typically adopts peak height, amount is big, peak type is concentrated, main peak is to the rear is simulated amplifying.
Embodiment one
Referring to shown in Fig. 1, a kind of flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) provided in an embodiment of the present invention is it is characterised in that wrap
Include: basic model data base 11, basic database 14, flood forecast module 12 and Dispatching Flood module 13；
Described basic model data base 11, corresponding for storing historical flood graph and each historical flood graph
Total rainfall and rain time span, wherein, described historical flood graph includes: model flood hydrograph and design flood
Journey line；
Described basic database 14, for storing unit parameter and release floodwatering facility parameter；
Described flood forecast module 12, for choosing historical flood graph from described basic model data base 11, and
Total rainfall according to forecast and rain time span, zoom in and out to the historical flood graph chosen, to flood
Water is forecast；
Described Dispatching Flood module 13, arranges flood discharge unit and flood discharge for Selecting All Parameters from described basic database 14
The parameter current of facility, and total rainfall of the parameter current of the flood discharge unit according to setting and release floodwatering facility, forecast
Amount and the historical flood graph of rain time span and selection, are simulated flood-control scheduling to flood.
Flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) described in the embodiment of the present invention, by using historical flood graph, embodying
Flood control by reservoir regulation rough sledding, and carry out flood forecasting and simulation with reference to total rainfall and rain time span of forecast
Flood-control scheduling, display flood and SEA LEVEL VARIATION process, draw flood peak or peak level that the reservoir areas such as reservoir or river course are likely to occur,
The flood-proofing terrain of the reservoir areas such as reservoir or river course can quickly be judged, and forecast result accurately, leading time long, be easy to not send out in rainfall
Effective scheduling scheme is taken to provide decision-making foundation to policymaker before death, thus reducing the impact of flood damage further.
In the present embodiment, flood forecast module 12, Dispatching Flood module 13 can be operated in accordance with the following steps to carry out flood control
Scheduling, described step includes:
A11, clicks on " flood-control scheduling " menu button, ejects flood-control scheduling interface；
A12, according to the flood-control scheduling interface ejected, according to basic model data base described in typing in " rain types "
Historical flood graph title in 11 selects a certain historical flood graph, as shown in Figure 2；
A13, according to the rain fall of weather forecast, inputs total rainfall, in " rain time " in " rainfall intensity "
Input rain time span, for example, bright latter two days rainfall scopes of weather forecast are 250～300mm, be selected as 250mm or
300mm, with 300mm example, then input 300 in " rainfall intensity ", in " rain time " input 2 (my god), as shown in Figure 2；
A14, from described basic database 14 Selecting All Parameters arrange each flood discharge unit and release floodwatering facility current operation ginseng
After number, point " executes " button simulation flood-control scheduling, with flood-control scheduling interface lower time bar progress, reservoir inflow, generating flow,
The data result of calculation such as flood discharge flow, water level also changes.Timeline total time sets as needed, is defaulted as 72 hours,
Timeline change step is 1 hour, as shown in Figure 2.
In the present embodiment, the total rainfall according to forecast and rain time span or current rain fall,
Using designed flood hydrograph and historical different typical flood process, and by multiple Flood Control Dispatch modes (by arrange
The parameter current of flood discharge unit and release floodwatering facility determines), reservoir level is carried out with the prediction (being not limited to 72 hours) in 72 hours,
Complete to predict only with 72 second time that is to say, that can quickly judge the reservoir areas such as reservoir or river course flood-proofing terrain such that it is able to
There is provided decision-making foundation for flood-control scheduling in time.In the present embodiment, using designed flood hydrograph and typical flood process, can
Embody flood control by reservoir regulation rough sledding, with respect to general false plan forecast closer to actual result, be easy to aid decision and taken
Effect scheduling scheme, reduces flood damage impact.
In the present embodiment, using historical flood process simulation mode, can be according to (reservoir area such as reservoir or river course) flood in basin
Peb process simulation calculus are voluntarily added in the development of water characteristic and change.
In the present embodiment, described system also includes: basic data typing module, described basic data typing module, is used for
Unit parameter and flood discharge parameter are entered in basic database 14, set up and disposably set up during described basic database 14, supply
Use during flood-control scheduling operation, described unit parameter includes: the on off state of each unit；Described flood discharge parameter includes: flood passage
Mode (left spillway, right spillway), as shown in Figure 2.
In the present embodiment, described historical flood graph includes but is not limited to: typical flood process and design flood process
Line.In actual applications, can be extended according to practical situation, for example, if it is desired, it is little also can to choose peak low amounts, main peak
The big vast hydrograph that Duan Hongliang does not concentrate is as lower limit reference.
In the present embodiment, set up described basic model data base using designed flood hydrograph and model flood hydrograph
11, total rainfall of the peb process of designed flood hydrograph described in typing and model flood hydrograph and during rainfall span simultaneously
Between.Described model flood hydrograph is representative typical historical flood graph, for example, 96 flood hydrographs, 98 floods
Water graph, Morakot Typhoon Process line etc., and Calculating Design Flood Hydrograph (general reservoir or river course have been inquired into selected, directly
Selecting is used).
In the present embodiment, can be by manual typing mode or file lead-in mode typing basic model data base 11
Data.
In the specific embodiment of aforementioned flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), further, described system also includes: base
Plinth model typing module；
Described basic model typing module, for by the title of each historical flood graph, total rainfall, rain time
And the reservoir inflow of each time period of each historical flood graph is entered in described basic model data base 11.
In the present embodiment, if with the data in manual typing mode typing basic model data base 11, concrete steps are permissible
Including:
A21, clicks on " flood hydrograph typing " menu button, ejects flood hydrograph input interface；
A22, input historical flood graph title in " rain types ", historical flood graph title should be easy to manage
Solution, such as " design flood ", " 98 flood ", " Morakot typhoon " etc., as shown in Figure 3；
A23, according to the actual rain fall of each historical flood graph, inputs total rainfall in " rainfall intensity ",
Input rain time span in " rain time ", such as " 98 flood " last 3 days, and total rainfall is 312.4mm, then in " rainfall
Input 312.4 in intensity ", input 3 in " rain time ", as shown in Figure 3；
A24, the time interval of historical flood graph typing reservoir inflow data is 1 hour, specifically, first directly enters
First reservoir inflow data of certain historical flood graph, point " increases " button and next data inputting row, records successively
Enter all reservoir inflow data of this historical flood graph, after last reservoir inflow data of typing, point " submits " button to,
Determine prompting frame when " typing " occurs, point determines, that is, complete the typing work of this historical flood graph, as shown in Figure 3.
In the specific embodiment of aforementioned flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), further, described system also includes: base
Plinth model import modul；
Described basic model import modul, for recording the title having each historical flood graph, total rainfall, fall
The file of the reservoir inflow of each time period of rain time and each historical flood graph imports to described basic model data
In storehouse 11.
In the present embodiment, if with the data in file lead-in mode typing basic model data base 11 it is assumed that the lattice of file
Formula is excel, and concrete steps may include that
A31, sets up excel table, and excel file name is made by oneself, for example, entitled " flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) flood
Water graph "；
A32, worksheet names corresponding " rain types ", table the first row first row is corresponding " rainfall intensity ", table second row the
String is corresponding " rain time ", and table the third line first row starts the reservoir inflow data of corresponding historical flood graph；
A33, import operation: click on " flood hydrograph importing " menu button, eject flood hydrograph and import interface, in literary composition
During part selects, choose excel file place catalogue step by step until choosing corresponding excel file；
A34, clicks on the Import button, determines prompting frame when " importing ", point determines, that is, complete this historical flood
Journey line importing work.
In the specific embodiment of aforementioned flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), further, described flood forecast module
12, corresponding with the historical flood graph chosen total for the total rainfall according to forecast and rain time span
Rainfall and rain time span, to choose the corresponding flood peak of historical flood graph and the peb process time reduced or
Amplify, between the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak are current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION, wherein, described flood peak includes: each
The reservoir inflow of period.
In the present embodiment, according to weather forecast, flood can be forecast under the conditions of existing water level.Optional as one
Embodiment, described flood forecast module 12, for obtaining current water level, pre- according to the current water level obtaining, weather forecast
Total rainfall of report and rain time span and the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen and rain time span,
The corresponding flood peak of described historical flood graph and peb process time chosen is zoomed in or out, forecast is following predetermined
Between magnanimity in period, flood peak, peak are current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION.
In the present embodiment, can be combined with the real time water level of Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting or terminate water level according to weather
Forecast is forecast to flood.As another alternative embodiment, described flood forecast module 12, for according to Real-time Flood Forecasting
The real time water level of Process Forecasting or the history terminating water level, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span and selection
The corresponding total rainfall of flood hydrograph and rain time span, to choose the corresponding flood peak of described historical flood graph and
The peb process time is zoomed in or out, between the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak are current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION,
Wherein, described end water level refers to the last moment water level of Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting.
In the present embodiment, under the conditions of existing water level, flood-control scheduling can be simulated to flood.As an optional enforcement
Example, described Dispatching Flood module 13, specifically for obtaining current water level, according to the flood discharge of the current water level obtaining, setting
The historical flood of the parameter current of unit and release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span and selection
Graph, is simulated flood-control scheduling to flood.
In the present embodiment, can be combined with the real time water level of Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting or end water level enters to flood
Row simulation flood-control scheduling.As another alternative embodiment, described Dispatching Flood module 13, specifically for according to Real-time Flood Forecasting
The parameter current of process water level or end water level, the flood discharge unit of setting and release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast
With the historical flood graph of rain time span and selection, flood-control scheduling is simulated to flood.
In the specific embodiment of aforementioned flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS), further it is characterised in that current
During secondary simulation flood-control scheduling, suspended by pause button and simulate flood-control scheduling process when previous, more described in being carrying out
Change the flood discharge unit of described setting and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, according to the ginseng of the flood discharge unit after change and release floodwatering facility
Number, continue executing with described when previous simulation flood-control scheduling process.
In the present embodiment, button " can suspended " with time point during previous simulation flood-control scheduling, change unit and let out
Big vast frastructure state, then point " executes " button, is carried out according to the situation continued after change.That is, in simulation flood-control scheduling mistake
Cheng Zhongke suspends at any time to change scheduling mode, and continues to run with it is achieved that real-time man-machine interaction according to the mode after change,
There is motility.
In the present embodiment, reservoir level is carried out with the prediction (being not limited to 72 hours) in 72 hours, complete prediction only with 72
Time second, because predetermined speed is relatively fast, more scheduling mode calculations can be carried out in the short period of time.Simultaneously real-time
Man-machine interaction can derive diversified Flood Control Dispatch mode.
The above is the preferred embodiment of the present invention it is noted that for those skilled in the art
For, on the premise of without departing from principle of the present invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvements and modifications
Should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) is it is characterised in that include: basic model data base, basic database, flood
Forecast module and Dispatching Flood module；
Described basic model data base, for storing historical flood graph and the corresponding total rainfall of each historical flood graph
Amount and rain time span, wherein, described historical flood graph includes: model flood hydrograph and designed flood hydrograph；
Described basic database, for storing unit parameter and release floodwatering facility parameter；
Described flood forecast module, for choosing historical flood graph, and according to weather from described basic model data base
Total rainfall of forecast forecast and rain time span, zoom in and out to the historical flood graph chosen, flood are carried out pre-
Report；
Described Dispatching Flood module, arranges working as of flood discharge unit and release floodwatering facility for Selecting All Parameters from described basic database
Front parameter, and the flood discharge unit according to setting and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, total rainfall of forecast and rainfall
The historical flood graph of time span and selection, is simulated flood-control scheduling to flood.
2. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that described system also includes: basis
Model typing module；
Described basic model typing module, for by the title of each historical flood graph, total rainfall, rain time and every
The reservoir inflow of each time period of individual historical flood graph is entered in described basic model data base.
3. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 1 is it is characterised in that described system also includes: basis
Model import modul；
Described basic model import modul, for during by recording the title having each historical flood graph, total rainfall, rainfall
Between and the file of the reservoir inflow of each time period of each historical flood graph import in described basic model data base.
4. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described flood forecast module, is used
In the total rainfall according to forecast and rain time span and the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen
Amount and rain time span, are reduced to the corresponding flood peak of historical flood graph and peb process time chosen or are put
Greatly, forecast magnanimity in following predetermined period, flood peak, peak current between and SEA LEVEL VARIATION, wherein, described flood peak includes: each when
The reservoir inflow of section.
5. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 4, it is characterised in that described flood forecast module, is used
In obtaining current water level, according to the current water level obtaining, total rainfall of forecast and rain time span with
The corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph chosen and rain time span, to the described historical flood graph pair chosen
The flood peak answered and peb process time are zoomed in or out, between the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak are current and
SEA LEVEL VARIATION.
6. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 5, it is characterised in that described flood forecast module, is used
When the real time water level according to Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting or end water level, total rainfall of forecast and rainfall
Between span and choose the corresponding total rainfall of historical flood graph and rain time span, to choose described historical flood
The corresponding flood peak of graph and peb process time are zoomed in or out, the magnanimity in the following predetermined period of forecast, flood peak, peak
Between current and SEA LEVEL VARIATION, wherein, described terminate the last moment water level that water level refers to Real-time Flood Forecasting Process Forecasting.
7. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described Dispatching Flood module, has
Body is used for obtaining current water level, the parameter current of current water level, the flood discharge unit of setting and release floodwatering facility according to acquisition,
Total rainfall of forecast and the historical flood graph of rain time span and selection, are simulated flood control to flood
Scheduling.
8. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described Dispatching Flood module, has
Body be used for according to Real-time Flood Forecasting process water level or terminate water level, setting flood discharge unit and release floodwatering facility parameter current,
Total rainfall of forecast and the historical flood graph of rain time span and selection, are simulated flood control to flood
Scheduling.
9. the flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to any one of claim 1,7 or 8 is it is characterised in that when previous
During simulation flood-control scheduling, suspended by pause button described in being carrying out when previous simulation flood-control scheduling process, change
The flood discharge unit of described setting and the parameter current of release floodwatering facility, according to the parameter of the flood discharge unit after change and release floodwatering facility,
When previous simulation flood-control scheduling process described in continuing executing with.
10. flood-control scheduling decision support system (DSS) according to claim 3 is it is characterised in that the type of described file is
excel.
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