CN106228259A - Electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis - Google Patents
Electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis, described modification method is to consider small water with local meteorological factor to judge whether near zone electrical network icing is had an impact by this water body, and then judges whether to need logarithm value forecast result to be modified；Including electrical network icing numerical forecast interpretation of result, weather information analysis, geographic information analysis, water body data acquisition, water body and the meteorological step such as relation analysis and judgement.The modification method of the present invention can quickly judge and revise the error caused in electrical network icing numerical forecast due to small water, and the correction for the prediction of electrical network icing provides foundation；Have workable；High accuracy for examination.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to electrical engineering field, relate to a kind of electrical network icing numerical forecast based on small water feature analysis
Error correcting method.
Background technology
Ice damage easily causes electric grid large area power cut, at the beginning of 2008 after long-time freezing rain and snow disaster on a large scale, and electrical network
Unit strengthens the observation to powerline ice-covering situation and record, through the accumulation of 8 years, has grasped a large amount of icing data.?
Finding in production practices and data analysis process, icing in the neighbourhood is had by the existence of water body necessarily to be affected: depositing of water body
Ambient air humidity can be made to increase, thus be susceptible to icing, but not all water body all can affect near zone icing
Situation, water body causes near zone icing relevant with many factors.
The grid of electrical network icing numerical model, by certain standard universal formulation, represents by the result of calculation of surrounding lattice point
The situation of whole grid.If with the presence of water body near the mesh point of numerical model, the result of calculation of local grid icing is easy
Producing error, this situation is very easy to occur near small water.The definition of small water is that water surface area is less than 1 mould
Formula grid area, water body maximum span less than 3 grids away from water body.Although can by the grid resolution improving numerical model
To reduce this error to a certain extent, but corresponding numerical model amount of calculation will exponentially increase, and calculate time multiple and increase
Long.Calculating on platform development horizontal base in present stage, the error that the middle-size and small-size water body of logarithm value model results causes is modified,
It it is feasible, practical method.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, it is provided that one is divided based on small water feature
The electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method of analysis, uses the method can quickly judge and revise electrical network icing numerical forecast
In the error that causes due to small water.
For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the technical scheme that the present invention proposes is:
A kind of electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis, described modification method is comprehensive
Consider that small water and local meteorological factor judge whether near zone electrical network icing is had an impact by this water body, and then judgement is
No logarithm value forecast result is needed to be modified；It includes step in detail below:
(1) electrical network icing numerical forecast interpretation of result: time icing numerical forecast result when analyzing each, at electrical network icing Numerical-Mode
The grid of formula is found out on a large scale without the local icing abnormity point in Ice Area and the local ice covering thickness in Ice Area on a large scale
Abnormity point；
(2) weather information analysis: the Weather Forecast Information of abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), mainly includes wind direction information；
(3) geographic information analysis: geography information near abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), has included whether small water and water
Body and the position relationship information of abnormity point；If there being small water near abnormity point, then carry out step (4)；Otherwise, terminate to sentence knowledge
And without artificial revision；
(4) water body data acquisition: collect the small water shape information near described abnormity point；
(5) water body and meteorological relation analysis: the wind direction information of integrating step (2), the position relationship information of step (3) and step
(4) water shape information is analyzed；
(6) judge: according to the analysis result of step (5), it is judged that near zone icing whether the small water near abnormity point
Have an impact, if it has, then electrical network icing numerical forecast result is modified.
Further improvement as to technique scheme:
Preferably, the Weather Forecast Information in described step (2) also includes Weather information.
Preferably, the water shape in described step (4) includes circle, north and south bar shaped, thing bar shaped, northeast-southwest bar
Shape and northwest-southeast bar shaped.
Compared with prior art, it is an advantage of the current invention that:
The electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis of the present invention, can quickly judge also
Revising the error caused in electrical network icing numerical forecast due to small water, the correction for the prediction of electrical network icing provides foundation；Tool
Have workable；High accuracy for examination, calculated on platform development horizontal base in present stage, and the method is feasible, practical
Method.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is water shape and the schematic diagram of predominant wind relation analysis in the embodiment of the present invention 1.
Fig. 2 is water shape and the schematic diagram of predominant wind relation analysis in the embodiment of the present invention 2.
Detailed description of the invention
For the ease of understanding the present invention, below in conjunction with Figure of description and preferred embodiment, the present invention is made more complete
Face, describe meticulously, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to embodiment in detail below.
The modification method of the present invention is to consider small water and local meteorological factor to judge that this water body is to neighbouring district
Whether territory electrical network icing has an impact, and then judges whether to need logarithm value forecast result to be modified；It includes walking in detail below
Rapid:
(1) electrical network icing numerical forecast interpretation of result: time icing numerical forecast result when analyzing each, at electrical network icing Numerical-Mode
The grid of formula is found out on a large scale without the local icing abnormity point in Ice Area and the local ice covering thickness in Ice Area on a large scale
Abnormity point；
(2) weather information analysis: the Weather Forecast Information of abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), including Weather information and predominant wind
Information；
(3) geographic information analysis: geography information near abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), has included whether small water and water
Body and the position relationship information of abnormity point；If there being small water near abnormity point, then carry out step (4)；Otherwise, terminate to sentence knowledge
And without revision；
(4) water body data acquisition: collect the small water shape information near described abnormity point；Water shape includes circle, south
North bar shaped, thing bar shaped, northeast-southwest bar shaped and northwest-southeast bar shaped；
(5) water body and meteorological relation analysis: the wind direction information of integrating step (2), the position relationship information of step (3) and step
(4) water shape information is analyzed；
(6) judge: according to the analysis result of step (5), it is judged that near zone icing whether the small water near abnormity point
Have an impact, if it has, then electrical network icing numerical forecast result is modified.
Embodiment 1:
In (a) daily forecast in February 9 in 2016 icing numerical forecast result of 11 days, electrical network icing numerical model (resolution 9km*
The grid of 9km) show have 2 neighboring lattice points to have slight icing (the most local icing exception in North China is on a large scale without Ice Area
Point)；
B (), by analyzing the weather forecast of abnormity point, finds that forecast day weather is the cloudy day, predominant wind is northwester, is not
The optimum weather condition that icing produces；
C () is by analyzing the geography information near abnormity point, with the presence of a reservoir near discovery, water surface area of reservoir 75-80
km2, maximum span is East and West direction, about 20 km, is positioned at direction, the northwest 4-6 km of abnormity point, and reservoir and abnormity point are respectively
It is positioned at adjacent two mesh point；
D (), by analyzing the basic configuration of reservoir, is found to be strip, move towards as northeast-southwest trend；
E () combines (b), (c) and (d) and is analyzed, owing to this reservoir is northeast-southwest trend, and reigning wind northwest
Wind is substantially vertical, and therefore under wind action, the damp atmosphere of near reservoir easily affects the southeast area of reservoir, and covers
Ice abnormity point is exactly in the southeast area of this reservoir, as shown in Figure 1.Therefore it can be assumed that, this water body in numerical model
Existence cause the humidity deviation in meshes, causing mode computation result is local icing, it is contemplated that the sky of forecast day
Gas situation is the cloudy day, without precipitation, northwest wind direction, assert that this is to calculate error, is i.e. modified.
Embodiment 2:
In (a) daily forecast in November 3 in 2015 icing numerical forecast result of 5 days, electrical network icing numerical model (resolution 9km*
The grid of 9km) display have 3 neighboring lattice points to have slight icing in Eastern China is on a large scale without Ice Area (the most local icing is different
Often point)；
B (), by analyzing the weather forecast of abnormity point, finds that forecast day weather is the cloudy day, may have precipitation, predominant wind is west
North wind, is possible to produce the weather condition of icing；
C () is by analyzing the geography information near abnormity point, with the presence of a reservoir near discovery, water surface area of reservoir 50-60
km2, maximum span is north-south, about 15 km, is positioned at the southwestward 5-6 km of abnormity point, and reservoir and abnormity point are respectively
It is positioned at adjacent two mesh point；
D (), by analyzing the basic configuration of reservoir, is found to be circular；
E () combines (b), (c) and (d) and is analyzed, owing to this reservoir is circular, reigning wind is northwester, therefore exists
Under wind action, the damp atmosphere of near reservoir easily affects the southeast area of reservoir, but icing abnormity point is in this water
The north-east area in storehouse, as shown in Figure 2.Therefore it can be assumed that, this local icing is not due to the humidity deviation of water body in pattern
Causing, consider locality weather condition on a large scale further, early stage temperature is higher, for southwester；Open to forecast day weather condition
Beginning to change, temperature reduces, and transfers northwester to, and may have precipitation, and this meets Cold Waves Invaded feature, and icing should be cold air
Going down south and cause, the later stage develops along with cold air, and icing scope should be able to expand.Result of calculation is without revising.
Claims (3)
1. an electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis, it is characterised in that: described
Modification method is to consider small water and local meteorological factor to judge whether near zone electrical network icing is had by this water body
Impact, and then judge whether to need logarithm value forecast result to be modified；It includes step in detail below:
(1) electrical network icing numerical forecast interpretation of result: time icing numerical forecast result when analyzing each, at electrical network icing Numerical-Mode
The grid of formula is found out on a large scale without the local icing abnormity point in Ice Area and the local ice covering thickness in Ice Area on a large scale
Abnormity point；
(2) weather information analysis: the Weather Forecast Information of abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), mainly includes wind direction information；
(3) geographic information analysis: geography information near abnormity point in analytical procedure (1), has included whether small water and water
Body and the position relationship information of abnormity point；If there being small water near abnormity point, then carry out step (4)；Otherwise, terminate to sentence knowledge
And without artificial revision；
(4) water body data acquisition: collect the small water shape information near described abnormity point；
(5) water body and meteorological relation analysis: the wind direction information of integrating step (2), the position relationship information of step (3) and step
(4) water shape information is analyzed；
(6) judge: according to the analysis result of step (5), it is judged that near zone icing whether the small water near abnormity point
Have an impact, if it has, then electrical network icing numerical forecast result is modified.
Electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis the most according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: the Weather Forecast Information in described step (2) also includes Weather information.
Electrical network icing numerical forecast error correcting method based on small water feature analysis the most according to claim 1,
It is characterized in that: the water shape in described step (4) include circle, north and south bar shaped, thing bar shaped, northeast-southwest bar shaped with
And northwest-southeast bar shaped.
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Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111401689A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-07-10 | 远景智能国际私人投资有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for determining snowfall date of photovoltaic station and storage medium |
Citations (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102915387A (en) * | 2012-09-10 | 2013-02-06 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Power grid ice region distribution diagram drawing method |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102915387A (en) * | 2012-09-10 | 2013-02-06 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Power grid ice region distribution diagram drawing method |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN111401689A (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2020-07-10 | 远景智能国际私人投资有限公司 | Method, device and equipment for determining snowfall date of photovoltaic station and storage medium |
| CN111401689B (en) * | 2020-02-19 | 2023-08-04 | 远景智能国际私人投资有限公司 | Determination method, device and equipment for snowfall date of photovoltaic station and storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20161214 |