CN106205213A - Ship track prediction method - Google Patents
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- 238000001514 detection method Methods 0.000 claims description 3
- 238000003064 k means clustering Methods 0.000 claims description 3
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- G08G3/00—Traffic control systems for marine craft
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08G—TRAFFIC CONTROL SYSTEMS
- G08G3/00—Traffic control systems for marine craft
- G08G3/02—Anti-collision systems
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Abstract
The invention relates to a ship track prediction method, which comprises the following steps that firstly, real-time and historical position information of a ship is obtained through a sea surface radar and is subjected to preliminary processing; the method comprises the steps of preprocessing ship track data at each sampling moment, clustering the ship track data at each sampling moment, performing parameter training on the ship track data at each sampling moment by using a hidden Markov model, acquiring a hidden state q corresponding to an observation value at the current moment by adopting a Viterbi algorithm according to parameters of the hidden Markov model at each sampling moment, and finally acquiring a position predicted value O of a ship in a future time period based on the hidden state q of the ship at the current moment by setting a predicted time domain W at each sampling moment, so that the track of the ship in the future time period is estimated in a rolling mode at each sampling moment. The method can predict the ship track in real time in a rolling manner, and has high accuracy, thereby providing powerful guarantee for subsequent ship conflict resolution.
Description
The application is Application No.: 2014108415648, and invention and created name is " a kind of boats and ships track real-time estimate side
Method ", filing date: the divisional application of in December, 2014 application for a patent for invention of 30 days.
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of marine site traffic control method, particularly relate to a kind of boats and ships track based on Rolling Planning strategy
Forecasting Methodology.
Background technology
Along with the fast development of whole world shipping business, the traffic in the busy marine site of part is the most crowded.Close in vessel traffic flow
The complicated marine site of collection, still uses sail plan to combine the regulation model of artificial interval allotment the most not for the collision scenario between boats and ships
Adapt to the fast development of shipping business.For ensureing the personal distance between boats and ships, enforcement effective conflict allotment just becomes marine site and hands over
The emphasis of siphunculus system work.Boats and ships conflict Resolution is a key technology in navigational field, frees scheme pair safely and efficiently
In increasing marine site boats and ships flow and guaranteeing that sea-freight safety is significant.
In order to improve the efficiency of navigation of boats and ships, marine radar automatic plotter has been widely applied to ship monitor
With in collision prevention, this equipment provides reference frame by extracting boats and ships relevant information for the judgement of collision scenario between boats and ships.Although this
Kind equipment greatly reduces manual supervisory load, but it does not has boats and ships automatic conflict Resolution function.And boats and ships conflict solution
De-be based on the prediction to boats and ships track on the basis of, in boats and ships real navigation, by meteorological condition, navigator and driving
The impact of the various factors such as member's operation, its running status the most not exclusively belongs to a certain specific kinestate, at boats and ships rail
Need to consider the impact of various random factor during mark prediction, by obtaining the up-to-date characteristic of all kinds of random factors to its future
Track is implemented rolling forecast and strengthens the robustness of its trajectory predictions.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to provide a kind of robustness preferable boats and ships trajectory predictions method, the method
Boats and ships trajectory predictions precision is higher.
The technical scheme realizing the object of the invention is to provide a kind of boats and ships trajectory predictions method, including following several steps:
1. obtaining the real-time of boats and ships and historical position information by sea radar, the positional information of each boats and ships is discrete two-dimensional
Position sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'], by application wavelet transformation theory to original
Discrete two-dimensional position sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'] carry out preliminary treatment, thus obtain
Take the denoising discrete two-dimensional position sequence x=[x of boats and ships1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn];
2. in each sampling instant to boats and ships track data pretreatment, according to acquired boats and ships original discrete two-dimensional position
Sequence x=[x1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn], use first-order difference method to carry out processing the ship that acquisition is new to it
Oceangoing ship discrete location sequence Δ x=[Δ x1,Δx2,...,Δxn-1] and Δ y=[Δ y1,Δy2,...,Δyn-1], wherein Δ xi=
xi+1-xi,Δyi=yi+1-yi(i=1,2 ..., n-1);
3. in each sampling instant, boats and ships track data is clustered, to boats and ships discrete two-dimensional position sequence Δ new after processing
X and Δ y, by setting cluster number M', uses K-means clustering algorithm to cluster it respectively;
4. HMM is utilized to carry out parameter training boats and ships track data in each sampling instant, at inciting somebody to action
Vessel motion track data Δ x and Δ y after reason is considered as the aobvious observation of hidden Markov models, by setting hidden state number
N and parameter update period τ ', according to T' nearest position detection value and use B-W algorithm to roll the up-to-date Hidden Markov of acquisition
Model parameter λ ';
5. in each sampling instant according to HMM parameter, use Viterbi algorithm to obtain current time and see
Hidden state q corresponding to measured value;
6. in each sampling instant, by setting prediction time domain W, hidden state q based on boats and ships current time, future is obtained
Position prediction value O of period boats and ships, thus roll in each sampling instant and speculate to the track of boats and ships in future time period.
Further, described step 1. in, by application wavelet transformation theory to original discrete two-dimensional position sequence x'=
[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'] carry out preliminary treatment, thus obtain the denoising discrete two-dimensional of boats and ships
Position sequence x=[x1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn]: for given original two dimensional sequence data x'=
[x1',x2',...,xn'], utilize the linear representation of following form respectively it to be approximated:
Wherein:
F'(x') represent that, to the function expression obtained after data smoothing processing, ψ (x') represents female ripple, and δ, J and K are little
Wave conversion constant, ψJ,K(x') transition form of female ripple, c are representedJ,KRepresent the function coefficients obtained by wavelet transform procedure, its body
Show wavelet ψJ,K(x') the weight size to whole approximation to function, if this coefficient is the least, then it means wavelet ψJ,K(x')
Weight the least, thus can be on the premise of not influence function key property, by wavelet ψ during approximation to functionJ,K
(x') remove;In real data processing procedure, implement " threshold transition " by setting threshold value χ, work as cJ,KDuring < χ, set
cJ,K=0;The employing the following two kinds mode of choosing of threshold function table:
With
For y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'], it is also adopted by said method and carries out denoising.
Further, described step 4. in determine flight path HMM parameter lambda '=the process of (π, A, B) is as follows:
4.1) variable composes initial value: application is uniformly distributed to variable πi, aijAnd bj(ok) compose initial value πi 0,WithAnd make
It meets constraints:WithThus obtain
λ0=(π0,A0,B0), wherein okRepresent a certain aobvious observation, π0、A0And B0It is by element respectivelyWithThe matrix constituted,
Make parameter l=0, o=(ot-T'+1,...,ot-1,ot) it is T' historical position observation before current time t;
4.2) E-M algorithm is performed:
4.2.1) E-step: by λlCalculate ξe(i, j) and γe(si);
VariableSo
Wherein s represents a certain hidden state;
4.2.2) M-step: useEstimate respectively
Meter πi, aijAnd bj(ok) and thus obtain λl+1;
4.2.3) circulation: l=l+1, repeats E-step and M-step, until πi、aijAnd bj(ok) convergence, i.e.
|P(o|λl+1)-P(o|λl) | < ε, wherein parameter ε=0.00001, return step 4.2.4);
4.2.4): make λ '=λl+1, algorithm terminates.
Further, described step 5. in determine that the iterative process of the optimal hidden status switch of ship track is as follows:
5.1) variable composes initial value: make g=2, βT'(si)=1 (si∈ S), δ1(si)=πibi(o1), ψ1(si)=0, wherein,
, wherein variable ψg(sj) represent make variable δg-1(si)aijTake hidden state s of ship track of maximumi, parameter S represents
The set of hidden state;
5.2) recursive process:
5.3) moment updates: make g=g+1, if g≤T', returns step 5.2), otherwise iteration ends forward step to
5.4);
5.4)Forward step 5.5 to);
5.5) optimum hidden status switch obtains:
5.5.1) variable composes initial value: make g=T'-1;
5.5.2) backward recursion:
5.5.3) moment updates: make g=g-1, if g >=1, returns step 5.5.2), otherwise terminate.
Further, described step 3. in, cluster number M' value be 4.
Further, described step 4. in, the value of state number N is 3, parameter update period τ ' be 30 seconds, T' is 10.
Further, described step 6. in, it was predicted that time domain W is 300 seconds.
The present invention has a positive effect: (1) present invention during boats and ships track real-time estimate, incorporated random because of
The impact of element, the rolling track prediction scheme used can be extracted the changing condition of extraneous random factor in time, improve ship
The accuracy of oceangoing ship trajectory predictions.
(2) present invention is based on different performance index, and its boats and ships track real-time estimate result can be the multiple of existence conflict
Boats and ships provide frees trajectory planning scheme, improves economy and the utilization rate of sea area resources of vessel motion.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the vessel motion short-term Track Pick-up schematic flow sheet in the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
(embodiment 1)
Seeing Fig. 1, a kind of boats and ships trajectory predictions method of the present embodiment includes following several step:
1. obtaining the real-time of boats and ships and historical position information by sea radar, the positional information of each boats and ships is discrete two-dimensional
Position sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'], by application wavelet transformation theory to original
Discrete two-dimensional position sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'] carry out preliminary treatment, thus obtain
Take the denoising discrete two-dimensional position sequence x=[x of boats and ships1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn]: y=[y1,y2,...,
yn]: for given original two dimensional sequence data x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'], utilize the linear representation of following form to divide
Other it is approximated:
Wherein:
F'(x') represent that, to the function expression obtained after data smoothing processing, ψ (x') represents female ripple, and δ, J and K are little
Wave conversion constant, ψJ,K(x') transition form of female ripple, c are representedJ,KRepresent the function coefficients obtained by wavelet transform procedure, its body
Show wavelet ψJ,K(x') the weight size to whole approximation to function, if this coefficient is the least, then it means wavelet ψJ,K(x')
Weight the least, thus can be on the premise of not influence function key property, by wavelet ψ during approximation to functionJ,K
(x') remove;In real data processing procedure, implement " threshold transition " by setting threshold value χ, work as cJ,KDuring < χ, set
cJ,K=0;The employing the following two kinds mode of choosing of threshold function table:
With
For y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'], it is also adopted by said method and carries out denoising;
2. in each sampling instant to boats and ships track data pretreatment, according to acquired boats and ships original discrete two-dimensional position
Sequence x=[x1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn], use first-order difference method to carry out processing the ship that acquisition is new to it
Oceangoing ship discrete location sequence Δ x=[Δ x1,Δx2,...,Δxn-1] and Δ y=[Δ y1,Δy2,...,Δyn-1], wherein Δ xi=
xi+1-xi,Δyi=yi+1-yi(i=1,2 ..., n-1);
3. in each sampling instant, boats and ships track data is clustered, to boats and ships discrete two-dimensional position sequence Δ new after processing
X and Δ y, by setting cluster number M', uses K-means clustering algorithm to cluster it respectively;
4. HMM is utilized to carry out parameter training boats and ships track data in each sampling instant, at inciting somebody to action
Vessel motion track data Δ x and Δ y after reason is considered as the aobvious observation of hidden Markov models, by setting hidden state number
N and parameter update period τ ', according to T' nearest position detection value and use B-W algorithm to roll the up-to-date Hidden Markov of acquisition
Model parameter λ ';Determine flight path HMM parameter lambda '=the process of (π, A, B) is as follows:
4.1) variable composes initial value: application is uniformly distributed to variable πi, aijAnd bj(ok) compose initial valueWithAnd
It is made to meet constraints:WithThus
To λ0=(π0,A0,B0), wherein okRepresent a certain aobvious observation, π0、A0And B0It is by element respectivelyWithThe square constituted
Battle array, makes parameter l=0, o=(ot-T'+1,...,ot-1,ot) it is T' historical position observation before current time t;
4.2) E-M algorithm is performed:
4.2.1) E-step: by λlCalculate ξe(i, j) and γe(si);
VariableSo
Wherein s represents a certain hidden state;
4.2.2) M-step: useEstimate respectively
Meter πi, aijAnd bj(ok) and thus obtain λl+1;
4.2.3) circulation: l=l+1, repeats E-step and M-step, until πi、aijAnd bj(ok) convergence, i.e.
|P(o|λl+1)-P(o|λl) | < ε, wherein parameter ε=0.00001, return step 4.2.4);
4.2.4): make λ '=λl+1, algorithm terminates.
5. in each sampling instant according to HMM parameter, use Viterbi algorithm to obtain current time and see
Hidden state q corresponding to measured value:
5.1) variable composes initial value: make g=2, βT'(si)=1 (si∈ S), δ1(si)=πibi(o1), ψ1(si)=0, wherein,
, wherein variable ψg(sj) represent make variable δg-1(si)aijTake hidden state s of ship track of maximumi, parameter S represents
The set of hidden state;
5.2) recursive process:
5.3) moment updates: make g=g+1, if g≤T', returns step 5.2), otherwise iteration ends forward step to
5.4);
5.4)Forward step 5.5 to);
5.5) optimum hidden status switch obtains:
5.5.1) variable composes initial value: make g=T'-1;
5.5.2) backward recursion:
5.5.3) moment updates: make g=g-1, if g >=1, returns step 5.5.2), otherwise terminate..
6. in each sampling instant, by setting prediction time domain W, hidden state q based on boats and ships current time, future is obtained
Position prediction value O of period boats and ships.
The value of above-mentioned cluster number M' is 4, the value of state number N is 3, and it is 30 seconds that parameter updates period τ ', and T' is 10,
Prediction time domain W is 300 seconds.
(application examples, navigation traffic control method)
The navigation traffic control method of the present embodiment includes following several step:
Step A, the boats and ships trajectory predictions method obtained according to embodiment 1 obtain what boats and ships speculated in each sampling instant
The track of boats and ships in future time period;
Step B, at each sampling instant, the running status current based on boats and ships and historical position observation sequence, obtain sea
The numerical value of territory wind field variable, its detailed process is as follows:
B.1) stop position of boats and ships is set as track reference coordinate initial point;
B.2) when boats and ships are in straight running condition and at the uniform velocity turning running status, marine site wind field linear filtering mould is built
Type;
B.3) numerical value of wind field variable is obtained according to constructed Filtering Model.
Step C, in each sampling instant, when the boats and ships of running statuses based on each boats and ships and setting run in marine site need
The safety regulation collection met, when likely there is the situation violating safety regulation when between boats and ships, to its dynamic behaviour implementing monitoring
And provide warning information timely for maritime traffic control centre;
Step D, when warning information occurs, on the premise of meeting boats and ships physical property and marine site traffic rules, pass through
Set optimizing index function and incorporate wind field variable value, using Model Predictive Control Theory method that boats and ships collision avoidance track is entered
Row Rolling Planning, and program results is transferred to the execution of each boats and ships, its detailed process is as follows:
D.1) termination reference point locations P of boats and ships collision avoidance trajectory planning, collision avoidance policy control time domain Θ, trajectory predictions are set
Time domain γ;
D.2) on the premise of being set in given optimizing index function, based on cooperative collision avoidance trajectory planning thought, by giving
Each boats and ships give different weights and incorporate real-time wind field variable filtering numerical value, obtain the collision avoidance track of each boats and ships and keep away
Hit control strategy and program results is transferred to the execution of each boats and ships, and each boats and ships only implement its first in Rolling Planning is spaced
Optimal Control Strategy;
D.3) in next sampling instant, step 5.2 is repeated) until each boats and ships all arrive it frees terminal.
Above-mentioned termination reference point locations P is set as the next navigation channel point of vessel position conflict point, during collision avoidance policy control
Territory Θ is 300 seconds;Trajectory predictions time domain γ is 300 seconds.
Obviously, above-described embodiment is only for clearly demonstrating example of the present invention, and not to the present invention
The restriction of embodiment.For those of ordinary skill in the field, can also be made it on the basis of the above description
The change of its multi-form or variation.Here without also cannot all of embodiment be given exhaustive.And these belong to this
What bright spirit was extended out obviously changes or changes among still in protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a boats and ships trajectory predictions method, it is characterised in that include following several step:
1. obtaining the real-time of boats and ships and historical position information by sea radar, the positional information of each boats and ships is discrete two-dimensional position
Sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'], by application wavelet transformation theory to original discrete
Two-dimensional position sequence x'=[x1',x2',...,xn'] and y'=[y1',y2',...,yn'] carry out preliminary treatment, thus obtain ship
The denoising discrete two-dimensional position sequence x=[x of oceangoing ship1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn];
2. in each sampling instant to boats and ships track data pretreatment, according to acquired boats and ships original discrete two-dimensional position sequence
X=[x1,x2,...,xn] and y=[y1,y2,...,yn], use first-order difference method carry out processing to it obtain new boats and ships from
Dissipate position sequence △ x=[△ x1,△x2,...,△xn-1] and △ y=[△ y1,△y2,...,△yn-1], wherein △ xi=xi+1-
xi,△yi=yi+1-yi, i=1,2 ..., n-1;
3. in each sampling instant, boats and ships track data is clustered, to new boats and ships discrete two-dimensional position sequence △ x after processing and
△ y, by setting cluster number M', uses K-means clustering algorithm to cluster it respectively;
4. HMM is utilized to carry out parameter training boats and ships track data in each sampling instant, after processing
Vessel motion track data △ x and △ y be considered as the aobvious observation of hidden Markov models, by set hidden state number N and
Parameter update period τ ', according to T' nearest position detection value and use B-W algorithm roll acquisition up-to-date Hidden Markov mould
Shape parameter λ ';
5. in each sampling instant according to HMM parameter, Viterbi algorithm is used to obtain current time observation
Corresponding hidden state q;
6. in each sampling instant, by setting prediction time domain W, hidden state q based on boats and ships current time, future time period is obtained
Position prediction value O of boats and ships, thus roll in each sampling instant and speculate to the track of boats and ships in future time period;
Described step 4. in determine flight path HMM parameter lambda '=the process of (π, A, B) is as follows:
4.1) variable composes initial value: application is uniformly distributed to variable πi, aijAnd bj(ok) compose initial valueWithAnd make it full
Foot constraints:WithThus obtain λ0=
(π0,A0,B0), wherein okRepresent a certain aobvious observation, π0、A0And B0It is by element respectivelyWithThe matrix constituted, order
Parameter l=0, o=(ot-T'+1,...,ot-1,ot) it is T' historical position observation before current time t;
4.2) E-M algorithm is performed:
4.2.1) E-step: by λlCalculate ξe(i, j) and γe(si);
VariableSo
Wherein s represents a certain hidden state;
4.2.2) M-step: useEstimate π respectivelyi,
aijAnd bj(ok) and thus obtain λl+1;
4.2.3) circulation: l=l+1, repeats E-step and M-step, until πi、aijAnd bj(ok) convergence, i.e. | P (o |
λl+1)-P(o|λl) | < ε, wherein parameter ε=0.00001 return step 4.2.4);
4.2.4): make λ '=λl+1, algorithm terminates.
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