CN106203713A - Consider the northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method of solar radiation - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method considering solar radiation, comprise the following steps: from the weather forecast on the northern area locality meteorological observatory same day, the ground and high-altitude real time meteorological data, forecast meteorological data, described real time meteorological data and the forecast meteorological data that gather the same day all include temperature data；Collect northern area locality transmission line of electricity real-time icing data and numerical model forecast icing data；The intensity of solar radiation of every day during utilizing the real-time icing of temperature data inverting and forecasting icing；With Daily solar radiation intensity as abscissa, maximum temperature is that vertical coordinate sets up coordinate system, determines calculating day position in described coordinate system；The icing forecast result of logarithm value pattern is modified.Existing electrical network icing model can be modified by the method for the present invention, is allowed to more conform to northern area icing process, improves the accuracy to the prediction of electrical network icing；There is method simple and reliable, workable, forecast accuracy advantages of higher.

Description

Consider the northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method of solar radiation

Technical field

The present invention relates to electrical engineering field, relate to a kind of northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast considering solar radiation Modification method.

Background technology

Ice damage easily causes electric grid large area power cut, at the beginning of 2008, when the multiple province of south China suffers large area long Between freezing rain and snow disaster, icing falls tower more than 70 ten thousand base, large-area power-cuts for 7 days, electrical network property loss more than 250 hundred million yuan, right The normal productive life of the people constitutes and has a strong impact on.Adding up according to historical data, south China area is to re-cover ice formation, ground, the north District's icing is little, has the research in a large number for southern area electrical network icing after especially 2008.But in recent years due to Climate change, the northern area of China occurs in that repeatedly serious icing process, finds southern area electrical network icing mould in production practices Type has some to need the place revised in the application of northern area electrical network icing, and one of them is exactly too than the more prominent factor Sun radiation.Southern area dense vegetation, winter, wet weather was touching, cleared up the most immediately even if sleet process terminates weather, ground, the north District's vegetation sparse, winter dryness, sleet process terminates rear weather and quickly clears up, and the temperature difference is the biggest sooner or later, although mean daily temperature is relatively Low, but the afternoon period is preferable due to solar radiation condition, and temperature rises quickly, and beneficially icing melts.Therefore, solar radiation pair Northern area electrical network icing melts speed and has a major impact.The electrical network icing numerical model that businessization is run now is to solar radiation The short-term warming caused considers insufficient, and the forecast of northern area powerline ice-covering is had certain deviation.So, northern area is defeated Electric line icing numerical forecast as a result, it is desirable to necessarily revise on the basis of solar radiation considering.

Summary of the invention

The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, it is provided that a kind of north considering solar radiation Area power grid icing numerical forecast modification method, uses the method that existing electrical network icing numerical forecast result can be allowed suitableeer Answer northern area electrical network icing situation, can preferably northern area electrical network icing process be predicted, instruct electrical network to be correlated with Unit emergent combats a natural disaster work.

For solving above-mentioned technical problem, the technical scheme that the present invention proposes is:

A kind of northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method considering solar radiation, comprises the following steps:

(1) meteorological data collection: from the weather forecast on the northern area locality meteorological observatory same day, gather the same day ground and High-altitude real time meteorological data, forecast meteorological data, described real time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data all include temperature data；

(2) icing data collection: collect northern area locality transmission line of electricity real-time icing data and numerical model forecast is covered Ice data；

(3) Daily solar radiation Strength co-mputation: utilize the real-time icing of temperature data inverting and forecast gathered in step (1) The intensity of solar radiation of every day during icing, computing formula is:

$R=a\sqrt{T_{max}-T_{\min }}{R}_a$

In formula, R is forecast ground forecast day intensity of solar radiation；R_aFor forecast ground forecast day astronomy radiant intensity；T_maxFor in advance Report ground max. daily temperature；T_minFor forecast ground Daily minimum temperature；A is radiation coefficient；

$R_a=\frac{1}{\mathrm{\π}}*G_{sc}*F_o*(cos\mathrm{\Φ}*cos\mathrm{\δ}*\sin W_s+\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{180}*sin\mathrm{\Φ}*sin\mathrm{\δ}*W_s)$

In formula, G_scFor solar constant, E_oFor Eccentricity of the earth correction factor, Φ is latitude, and δ is sun Chi Jiao, W_s For hour angle, when season, time determine, G_sc、E_o、δ、W_sAll can be considered as definite value, therefore when season, time determine, R_aOnly with Latitude is relevant；

(4) intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature conjoint analysis: with Daily solar radiation intensity as abscissa, maximum temperature Set up coordinate system for vertical coordinate, determine calculating day position in described coordinate system；

For coordinate system central point (R_o, T_o), T_oMelt critical temperature for wire icing, take-2 DEG C, R_oMelt for wire icing Change marginal value, relevant with icing date and icing place；R_o=kR_a, the circular of coefficient k is as follows:

I) according to nearly temperature on average scattergrams in month by month, 30, average 0 DEG C of line place latitude when north icing occurs is determined；

Ii) CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, local Daily solar radiation intensityRadiate with locality astronomyBetween coefficient put down for many years Average is 0.432, it may be assumed that

Iii) wire icing melts marginal value R_o=R_0℃, it may be assumed that kR_a=0.432R_a0℃

Iv) from step (3), when the time determines, R_aAnd R_a0℃Only relevant with latitude, determine 0 DEG C of line place latitude and After icing latitude, ratio-dependent between the two, thus may determine that the value of coefficient k.

(5), the icing forecast result of logarithm value pattern is modified；The calculating day coordinate position determined according to step (4) The numerical model forecast icing data collecting described step (1) are analyzed and revise:

If a. calculating day coordinate position to fall at the first quartile of described coordinate system, then icing melts；

If b. calculating day coordinate position and falling at the second quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing maintains or slightly increases；

If c. calculating day coordinate position and falling at the third quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing increases；

If d. calculating day coordinate position and falling in the fourth quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing maintains or weakens.

Preferably, the meteorological data that described step (2) is collected also includes precipitation data.

Compared with prior art, it is an advantage of the current invention that:

The northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method considering solar radiation of the present invention, can be to existing electrical network Icing model is modified, and is allowed to more conform to northern area icing process, improves the standard to the prediction of northern area electrical network icing Exactness；There is method simple and reliable, workable, forecast accuracy advantages of higher.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 be in the present invention with Daily solar radiation intensity (abscissa) and the highest temperature (vertical coordinate) be coordinate axes set up Coordinate system schematic diagram.

Fig. 2 is to calculate day coordinate position in the present invention to fall at the schematic diagram of coordinate system difference quadrant.

Fig. 3 is that the day coordinate position that calculates of the embodiment of the present invention 1 falls the schematic diagram of position in a coordinate system.

Fig. 4 is that the day coordinate position that calculates of the embodiment of the present invention 2 falls the schematic diagram of position in a coordinate system.

Detailed description of the invention

For the ease of understanding the present invention, below in conjunction with Figure of description and preferred embodiment, the present invention is made more complete Face, describe meticulously, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to embodiment in detail below.

Embodiment 1:

6-9 day in November, 2015, there is the most serious icing process, as a example by Daliang City, utilizes this in Liaoning Province The northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method considering solar radiation of invention, enters current icing process numerical forecast Row is revised, and specifically comprises the following steps that

(1), meteorological data collection.From the weather forecast in local meteorological observatory on November 6th, 2015, gather the ground on the same day With high-altitude real time meteorological data, forecast meteorological data, including precipitation data, temperature data.

(2), icing data collection.Collect Liaoning Province's powerline ice-covering live state information on November 6th, 2015 and 2015 Year 7-12 in November day powerline ice-covering numerical forecast information:

On November 6th, 2015, powerline ice-covering region is Dalian, two places, Yingkou；

7-12 in November day powerline ice-covering numerical forecast result:

Icing increased on 7th, and icing slightly increased on 8th, and icing maintained on 9th, and icing started to melt on 10th, and 11-12 day is without covering Ice.

(3), Daily solar radiation Strength co-mputation.Utilize the maximum temperature of every day and the difference of minimum temperature in step (1) anti- Drilling intensity of solar radiation on the same day, computing formula is:

$R=a\sqrt{T_{max}-T_{\min }}{R}_a$

In formula, R is forecast ground forecast day intensity of solar radiation；

R_aFor forecast ground forecast day astronomy radiant intensity, change is little in a short time, for current process, can be considered normal Number；

T_maxFor forecast ground max. daily temperature；

T_minFor forecast ground Daily minimum temperature；

A is radiation coefficient, and relevant with position, land, sea, Liaoning Province uses 0.19.

Wherein R_aDetermination method as follows:

$R_a=\frac{1}{\mathrm{\π}}*G_{sc}*F_o*(cos\mathrm{\Φ}*cos\mathrm{\δ}*\sin W_s+\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{180}*sin\mathrm{\Φ}*sin\mathrm{\δ}*W_s)$

In formula, G_scFor solar constant, E_oFor Eccentricity of the earth correction factor, Φ is latitude, and δ is sun Chi Jiao, W_s For hour angle, when season, time determine, G_sc、E_o、δ、W_sAll can be considered as definite value, therefore when season, time determine, R_aOnly with Latitude is relevant；

Inversion result is as shown in table 1:

Table 1 embodiment of the present invention 1 intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature data

Date	Intensity of solar radiation	Maximum temperature
			On November 6th, 2015	0.2166Ra	-3.6
On November 7th, 2015	0.4918Ra	-3.4
			On November 8th, 2015	0.4693Ra	-3.8
On November 9th, 2015	0.6302Ra	-2.1
			On November 10th, 2015	0.5572Ra	0.1
On November 11st, 2015	0.5101Ra	0.3
			On November 12nd, 2015	0.5341Ra	5.8

(4), intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature conjoint analysis.As it is shown in figure 1, with Daily solar radiation intensity (horizontal seat Mark) and maximum temperature (vertical coordinate) be that coordinate axes sets up coordinate system；As in figure 2 it is shown, the maximum temperature gathered according to step (1) and The intensity of solar radiation that step (3) calculates, determines calculating day position in above-mentioned coordinate system.Wherein coordinate system central point (R_o, T_o) obtain according to history intensity of solar radiation and wire icing thawing critical temperature, T_oStagnation temperature is melted for wire icing Degree, T_o=-2 DEG C；R_oMarginal value is melted for wire icing, relevant with icing date and icing place；R_o=kR_a, the present embodiment In, R_o=0.454R_a。

The circular of coefficient k is as follows:

I) according to nearly temperature on average scattergrams in month by month, 30, average 0 DEG C of line place latitude when north icing occurs is determined；

Ii) CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, local Daily solar radiation intensityWith local astronomy radiation on the same dayBetween coefficient Long-time average annual value is 0.432, it may be assumed that

Iii) wire icing melts marginal value R_o=R_0℃, it may be assumed that kR_a=0.432R_a0℃

Iv) known by step (3), when the time determines, R_aAnd R_a0℃Only relevant with latitude, determine 0 DEG C of line place latitude and cover After ice latitude, ratio-dependent between the two, thus may determine that the value of coefficient k.

(5), the icing forecast result of logarithm value pattern is modified.The calculating day coordinate position determined according to step (4) It is analyzed, as shown in Figure 3:

Result fell at third quadrant on 6th, showed that solar radiation is weak and temperature is low, and icing increases；

Result fell in fourth quadrant on 7th, showed that solar radiation is low compared with strong still temperature, and icing slightly weakens；

Result still fell in fourth quadrant on 8th, but compared with 7 days, intensity of solar radiation and temperature conditions are all deteriorated, and icing is tieed up Hold；

Result fell in axis of abscissas positive direction on 9th, showed that intensity of solar radiation is strong, and temperature conditions takes a turn for the better, and icing starts Melt；

Result fell at first quartile on 10th, showed that solar irradiance is strong and temperature conditions is all fine, then icing melts substantially；

11-12 day result still falls at first quartile, and icing melts rear process to be terminated.Result is as shown in table 2 below:

Comparative result table after table 2 embodiment of the present invention 1 icing numerical forecast result and correction

Embodiment 2:

23-24 day in November, 2015, there is an icing process in Henan Province, utilizes the north considering solar radiation of the present invention Side's area power grid icing numerical forecast modification method, is modified current icing process numerical forecast, specifically comprises the following steps that

(1), meteorological data collection.From the weather forecast in local meteorological observatory on November 22nd, 2015, gather the ground on the same day Face and high-altitude real time meteorological data, forecast meteorological data, including precipitation data, temperature data.

(2), icing data collection.Collect Henan Province's powerline ice-covering live state information on November 22nd, 2015 and 2015 Year 23-26 in November day powerline ice-covering numerical forecast information:

On November 22nd, 2015, transmission line of electricity is substantially without icing；

23-26 in November day powerline ice-covering numerical forecast result:

23 at the slight icing of the west and south, Henan appearance；Icing fast development on the 24th, expanded range is southern Henan area, Icing degree is moderate；Icing maintained on 25th, and icing started to melt on 26th.

(3), Daily solar radiation Strength co-mputation.Utilize the maximum temperature of every day and the difference of minimum temperature in step (1) anti- Drilling intensity of solar radiation on the same day, computing formula is:

$R=a\sqrt{T_{max}-T_{\min }}{R}_a$

In formula, R is forecast ground forecast day intensity of solar radiation；

R_aFor forecast ground forecast day astronomy radiant intensity, change is little in a short time, for current process, can be considered normal Number；

T_maxFor forecast ground max. daily temperature；

T_minFor forecast ground Daily minimum temperature；

A is radiation coefficient, and relevant with position, land, sea, Henan Province uses 0.185.

Wherein R_aDetermination method as follows:

$R_a=\frac{1}{\mathrm{\π}}*G_{sc}*F_o*(cos\mathrm{\Φ}*cos\mathrm{\δ}*\sin W_s+\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{180}*sin\mathrm{\Φ}*sin\mathrm{\δ}*W_s)$

In formula, G_scFor solar constant, E_oFor Eccentricity of the earth correction factor, Φ is latitude, and δ is sun Chi Jiao, W_s For hour angle, when season, time determine, G_sc、E_o、δ、W_sAll can be considered as definite value, therefore when season, time determine, R_aOnly with Latitude is relevant；

Inversion result is as shown in table 3:

Table 3 embodiment of the present invention 2 intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature data

Date	Intensity of solar radiation	Maximum temperature
			On November 23rd, 2015	0.37Ra	1
On November 24th, 2015	0.414Ra	-1.3
			On November 25th, 2015	0.555Ra	-1.2
On November 26th, 2015	0.49Ra	-3.6

(4), intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature conjoint analysis.With Daily solar radiation intensity (abscissa) and the highest temperature Degree (vertical coordinate) is that coordinate axes sets up coordinate system；The solar radiation that the maximum temperature gathered according to step (1) and step (3) calculate Intensity, determines calculating day position in above-mentioned coordinate system.Wherein coordinate system central point (R_o, T_o) it is according to history solar radiation Intensity and wire icing melt what critical temperature obtained, T_oCritical temperature, T is melted for wire icing_o=-2 DEG C；R_oCover for wire Ice-out marginal value, relevant with icing date and icing place；R_o=kR_a, in the present embodiment, R_o=0.43R_a。

The circular of coefficient k is as follows:

I) according to nearly temperature on average scattergrams in month by month, 30, average 0 DEG C of line place latitude when north icing occurs is determined；

Ii) CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, local Daily solar radiation intensityWith local astronomy radiation on the same dayBetween coefficient Long-time average annual value is 0.432, it may be assumed that

Iii) wire icing melts marginal value R_o=R_0℃, it may be assumed that kR_a=0.432R_a0℃

Iv) known by step (3), when the time determines, R_aAnd R_a0℃Only relevant with latitude, determine 0 DEG C of line place latitude and cover After ice latitude, ratio-dependent between the two, thus may determine that the value of coefficient k.

(5), the icing forecast result of logarithm value pattern is modified.The calculating day coordinate position determined according to step (4) It is analyzed, as shown in Figure 4:

Result fell at the second quadrant on 23rd, showed that solar radiation is the most weak but temperature is higher, and icing maintains or slightly increases；

Result fell at the second quadrant on 24th, but compared with 23 days, temperature substantially reduces, and showed that environment is beneficial to icing, icing Slightly increase；

Result fell at third quadrant on 25th, and particularly solar radiation condition is preferable, and icing quickly melts；

Result fell in fourth quadrant on 26th, although temperature reduces, but intensity of solar radiation is preferable, and icing melts completely.Knot The most as shown in table 4 below:

Comparative result table after table 4 embodiment of the present invention 2 icing numerical forecast result and correction

Claims (2)

1. the northern area electrical network icing numerical forecast modification method considering solar radiation, it is characterised in that: include following Step:

(1) meteorological data collection: from the weather forecast on the northern area locality meteorological observatory same day, gathers ground and the high-altitude on the same day Real time meteorological data, forecast meteorological data, described real time meteorological data and forecast meteorological data all include temperature data；

(2) icing data collection: collect northern area locality transmission line of electricity real-time icing data and numerical model forecast icing number According to；

(3) Daily solar radiation Strength co-mputation: utilize the real-time icing of temperature data inverting gathered in step (1) and forecast icing The intensity of solar radiation of every day period, computing formula is:

$R=a\sqrt{T_{\max }-T_{\min }}{R}_a$

In formula, R is forecast ground forecast day intensity of solar radiation；R_aFor forecast ground forecast day astronomy radiant intensity；T_maxFor forecast ground Max. daily temperature；T_minFor forecast ground Daily minimum temperature；A is radiation coefficient；

$R_a=\frac{1}{\mathrm{\π}}*G_{sc}*E_o*(cos\mathrm{\Φ}*cos\mathrm{\δ}*{\mathrm{sinW}}_s+\frac{\mathrm{\π}}{180}*sin\mathrm{\Φ}*sin\mathrm{\δ}*W_s)$

In formula, G_scFor solar constant, E_oFor Eccentricity of the earth correction factor, Φ is latitude, and δ is sun Chi Jiao, W_sFor time Angle, when season, time determine, G_sc、E_o、δ、W_sAll can be considered as definite value, therefore when season, time determine, R_aOnly have with latitude Close；

(4) intensity of solar radiation and maximum temperature conjoint analysis: with Daily solar radiation intensity as abscissa, maximum temperature is vertical Coordinate sets up coordinate system, determines calculating day position in described coordinate system；

For coordinate system central point (R_o, T_o), T_oMelt critical temperature for wire icing, take-2 DEG C, R_oMelt for wire icing and face Dividing value, relevant with icing date and icing place；R_o=kR_a, the circular of coefficient k is as follows:

I) according to nearly temperature on average scattergrams in month by month, 30, average 0 DEG C of line place latitude when north icing occurs is determined；

Ii) CONTINENTAL AREA OF CHINA, local Daily solar radiation intensityWith local astronomy radiation on the same dayBetween coefficient put down for many years Average is 0.432, it may be assumed that

Iii) wire icing melts marginal value R_o=R_0℃, it may be assumed that kR_a=0.432R_a0℃

Iv) known by step (3), when the time determines, R_aAnd R_a0℃Only relevant with latitude, determine 0 DEG C of line place latitude and icing latitude After degree, ratio-dependent between the two, can thereby determine the value of coefficient k；

(5) the icing forecast result of logarithm value pattern is modified；Determine according to step (4) calculating day coordinate position to described The numerical model forecast icing data that step (1) is collected are analyzed and revise:

If a. calculating day coordinate position to fall at the first quartile of described coordinate system, then icing melts；

If b. calculating day coordinate position and falling at the second quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing maintains or slightly increases；

If c. calculating day coordinate position and falling at the third quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing increases；

If d. calculating day coordinate position and falling in the fourth quadrant of described coordinate system, then icing maintains or weakens.

Modification method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: the meteorological data that described step (2) is collected also includes Precipitation data.