CN106056259B - A kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination method of large-scale wind power power output - Google Patents
A kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination method of large-scale wind power power output Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination methods of large-scale wind power power output, include the following steps: that wind power output of the wind-powered electricity generation in moment t in electric system A is calculated and predicts error 1) according to blower w each in electric system A in the power generating value of prediction a few days ago and practical power generating value of moment tTo obtain the short-term Uncertainty distribution function expression of large-scale wind power power output；2) rightγ and η value in linear function is further simplified, with the short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula of the large-scale wind power power output being simplified.This method can fast and efficiently obtain accurate large-scale wind power power output prediction error distribution situation, and workload is small, time-consuming short, provide the short-term probabilistic tool of quick discrimination large-scale wind power power output for the scheduling, operation and controllers of electric system.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination methods of large-scale wind power power output, belong to wind generator system
Technical field.
Background technique
Since the eighties in last century, oil crisis, climate change, energy problem become international focus, using wind energy as generation
The clean energy resource of table is fast-developing, becomes important alternative energy source at a specified future date.Greatly developing renewable energy is China's energy development
The important component of strategy.Wind power technology is mature, is one of the renewable energy of most business development potentiality.Generally,
Wind power output shows the characteristic different from normal power supplies: randomness, fluctuation, uncertainty.These characteristics are electric system
Safe operation and stability contorting bring severe challenge, therefore need to provide science method disappeared with realizing to electric system wind-powered electricity generation
Receive the differentiation of ability, and wind electricity digestion capability is by the important of each function links such as operation, scheduling, control as electric system
Index.
The prerequisite of the large-scale wind power power output consumption of electric system is that wind power output is not known in short term in electric system
Property differentiation, that is, determine the probabilistic size of wind power output in day degree and real-time electric system；Current extensive wind
The short-term uncertain method of discrimination of electricity power output is history typical case's wind-powered electricity generation gross capability curve for electric system, in the method for statistics
Differentiate that wind power output is uncertain in short term, key step are as follows:
1) the wind power output prediction curve and the practical power curve of wind-powered electricity generation of several history typical day are chosen；
2) statistics obtains history wind power output short-term forecast error distribution character；
3) it is uncertain that the wind power output prediction error distribution character obtained according to statistics prejudges the following wind power output.
And when the above method being used to differentiate the short-term uncertainty of wind power output in electric system, it has following defects that
1) wind power output curve has randomness, fluctuation and the uncertainty of height, needs a large amount of historical data
Accurate large-scale wind power power output prediction error distribution situation, heavy workload and time-consuming height can just be obtained；
2) in reality, the historical data of large-scale wind power field, which exists, to be accumulated less, incomplete and is stained situation, especially
It is that the statistical work of wind power output prediction error distribution situation can not effectively be carried out for newly-built or new integrated wind plant；
3) the typical day wind-powered electricity generation power curve selected, can not characterize whole scenes of wind power output (because wind power output is deposited
In randomness, fluctuation and probabilistic different expression form).
In conclusion being badly in need of a kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination side of quick, efficient, accurate large-scale wind power power output
It is short-term probabilistic to provide quick discrimination large-scale wind power power output with the scheduling, operation and controllers for electric system for method
Tool.
Summary of the invention
Present invention aims to solve the deficiencies of the prior art, and provides a kind of a kind of large-scale wind powers to contribute short-term uncertainty fastly
Fast method of discrimination, this method is easy to operate, workload is small, time-consuming is short.
In order to achieve the above objectives, the technical solution adopted by the present invention is that: a kind of large-scale wind power power output is short-term uncertain
Quick discrimination method, includes the following steps:
1) it is calculated according to blower w each in electric system A in the power generating value of prediction a few days ago and practical power generating value of moment t
Wind-powered electricity generation predicts error in the wind power output of moment t in electric system AWherein, z indicates the when number of segment of look-ahead, thus
It contributes short-term Uncertainty distribution function expression to large-scale wind power:
Wherein:It is the normal distribution that average value is zero；Be in electric system A wind-powered electricity generation in the wind of moment t
Electricity power output prediction error to standard deviation；
2) the short-term Uncertainty distribution function expression of large-scale wind power power output obtained according to step 1),It can be approximate
It is expressed as the linear function of wind power output prediction per unit value:
Wherein:For the installed capacity of blower w, unit is megawatt；γ and η is linear function coefficients；
γ and η value is further simplified, with the short-term uncertain quick discrimination of the large-scale wind power power output being simplified
Formula.
Specifically, the specific implementation step of step 1) is as follows:
11) it is contributed predicted value according to each blower of wind power base, obtains large-scale wind power and contribute in short term prediction expression one:
Wherein,For the wind power plant set in regional power system A；It is electric system A inner blower w moment t's
Prediction power output a few days ago, unit are megawatt；Wt APrediction a few days ago for wind power base in electric system A in moment t is contributed, unit million
Watt；
12) according to the practical power generating value of each blower of wind power base, the practical value expression two of large-scale wind power power output is obtained:
Wherein,It is electric system A inner blower w in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt；Wt'AFor power train
For wind-powered electricity generation in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt in system A；
13) it is short to obtain large-scale wind power power output for predicted value of being contributed in short term according to large-scale wind power base and practical power generating value
Phase uncertainty expression formula three:
14) according to the short-term uncertain expression formula three of large-scale wind power power output, it is short-term not that large-scale wind power power output can be obtained
Certainty distribution function expression formula four:
Specifically, specific step is as follows for simplified γ value and η value in step 2):
For different z, there is approximately uniform γ value, specifically, γ ≈ 0.2
And for η, it can approximately be expressed as the function of z
Simplified γ value and η value and formula one are updated toLinear function in, obtain formula five:
Specifically, setting x as the maximum distance between blower two-by-two in wind power base, unit 103Km can obtain formula six:
Formula five is substituted into formula six, can obtain between wind power plant two-by-two blower distance in the spatial dimension of 140~1850km,
The short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula seven of large-scale wind power power output:
Due to the application of the above technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the invention has the following advantages: big rule of the invention
Mould wind power output uncertain quick discrimination method in short term, can fast and efficiently obtain accurate large-scale wind power power output prediction
Error analysis situation, and workload is small, provides the extensive wind of quick discrimination for the scheduling, operation and controllers of electric system
The short-term probabilistic tool of electricity power output.
Detailed description of the invention
Attached drawing 1 is according to the short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula of large-scale wind power power output in embodiment 2, to different time
The probabilistic differentiation result of the wind-powered electricity generation of scale.
Specific embodiment
Technical solution of the present invention is further elaborated combined with specific embodiments below.
Embodiment 1
A kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination method of large-scale wind power power output is provided in this example, is included the following steps:
1) according to large-scale wind power power output short-term forecast error time scale, it is short-term uncertain to obtain large-scale wind power power output
Property distribution function expression formula, it is specific:
11) it is contributed predicted value according to each blower w of wind power base, obtains large-scale wind power and contribute in short term prediction expression:
In formula (1),For the wind power plant set in regional power system A；It is electric system A inner blower w at the moment
The prediction a few days ago of t is contributed, and unit is megawatt；Wt APrediction a few days ago for wind power base in electric system A in moment t is contributed, unit
For megawatt；
12) according to the practical power generating value of each blower of wind power base, the practical value expression of large-scale wind power power output is obtained:
In formula (2),It is electric system A inner blower w in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt；Wt 'AFor electric power
For wind-powered electricity generation in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt in system A；
13) it is short to obtain large-scale wind power power output for predicted value of being contributed in short term according to large-scale wind power base and practical power generating value
Phase uncertainty expression formula:
In formula (3),Be in electric system A wind-powered electricity generation moment t wind power output predict error, subscript z indicate it is pre- in advance
The when number of segment of survey；
14) it according to the short-term uncertain expression formula of large-scale wind power power output, obtains large-scale wind power power output and does not know in short term
Property distribution function expression formula:
In formula (4),It is the normal distribution that average value is zero；Be in electric system A wind-powered electricity generation in moment t
Wind power output predicts error to standard deviation, where it can be seen thatIt can be increased accordingly with the raising of z, i.e. predicted time scale
Bigger, wind power output uncertainty is bigger；
2) according to the short-term uncertain discrimination formula of large-scale wind power power output, it is further simplified discriminant parameter, is simplified
The short-term uncertain quick discrimination method of large-scale wind power power output afterwards, specifically includes:
21) using installed capacity as base value,Can approximate representation be wind power output predict per unit value linear function:
In formula (5),For the installed capacity of blower w, unit is megawatt；γ and η is linear function coefficients；
22) for different z, there is approximately uniform γ value:
23) η can be the function of z with approximate expression:
24) formula (1), (6), (7) are substituted into formula (5), are obtained:
25) error to standard deviation under different distributions region, with the increase of distribution distance, standard deviation approximation linearly subtracts
Small, note x is the maximum distance between blower two-by-two in wind power base, unit 103Km can obtain:
In formula (9), formula (9) be suitable for wind power plant between two-by-two blower distance in 140km~1850km spatial dimension
Situation enumerates all large-scale wind power distribution situations of electric system in reality substantially；
26) formula (8) are substituted into formula (9), obtained:
Formula (10) is the short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula of simplified large-scale wind power power output.
Embodiment 2
Illustrate that large-scale wind power power output proposed by the invention is short-term uncertain fast in this example by taking certain provincial area as an example
Fast method of discrimination:
A, statistics obtains large-scale wind power base wind-powered electricity generation field parameters and geographical distribution:
A1, wind farm wind velocity parameter are as shown in table 1:
The geographic distance of each wind power plant between any two in A2, the wind power base is as shown in table 2:
B, contributed short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula according to large-scale wind power, to different time scales (1 hour, it is 2 small
When, 3 hours, 4 hours, 5 hours, 6 hours) wind-powered electricity generation uncertainty differentiated, differentiate result it is as shown in Figure 1.
Table 1
Table 2
The above embodiments merely illustrate the technical concept and features of the present invention, and its object is to allow person skilled in the art
Scholar can understand the contents of the present invention and be implemented, and it is not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, it is all according to the present invention
Equivalent change or modification made by Spirit Essence, should be covered by the scope of protection of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of short-term uncertain quick discrimination method of large-scale wind power power output, which comprises the steps of:
1) electric power is calculated in the power generating value of prediction a few days ago and practical power generating value of moment t according to blower w each in electric system A
Wind-powered electricity generation predicts error in the wind power output of moment t in system AWherein, z indicates the when number of segment of look-ahead, to obtain
The short-term Uncertainty distribution function expression of large-scale wind power power output:
Wherein:It is the normal distribution that average value is zero；It is that wind-powered electricity generation of the wind-powered electricity generation in moment t goes out in electric system A
Power predicts error to standard deviation；
2) the short-term Uncertainty distribution function expression of large-scale wind power power output obtained according to step 1),It can approximate representation
The linear function of per unit value is predicted for wind power output:
Wherein:For the installed capacity of blower w, unit is megawatt；γ and η is linear function coefficients；
γ and η value is further simplified, with the short-term uncertain quick discrimination formula of the large-scale wind power power output being simplified；
The specific implementation step of step 1) is as follows:
11) it is contributed predicted value according to each blower of wind power base, obtains large-scale wind power and contribute in short term prediction expression one:
Wherein,For the wind power plant set in regional power system A；For electric system A inner blower w moment t a few days ago
Prediction power output, unit are megawatt；Wt APrediction a few days ago for wind power base in electric system A in moment t is contributed, and unit is megawatt；
12) according to the practical power generating value of each blower of wind power base, the practical value expression two of large-scale wind power power output is obtained:
Wherein,It is electric system A inner blower w in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt；For electric system A
For interior wind-powered electricity generation in the practical power generating value of moment t, unit is megawatt；
13) it is short-term not to obtain large-scale wind power power output for predicted value of being contributed in short term according to large-scale wind power base and practical power generating value
Deterministic expression three:
14) according to the short-term uncertain expression formula three of large-scale wind power power output, large-scale wind power power output can be obtained and do not know in short term
Property distribution function expression formula four:
In step 2), specific step is as follows for simplified γ value and η value:
For different z, there is approximately uniform γ value, specifically,
And for η, it can approximately be expressed as the function of z
Simplified γ value and η value and formula one are updated toLinear function in, obtain formula five:
If x is the maximum distance between blower two-by-two in wind power base, unit 103Km can obtain formula six:
Formula five is substituted into formula six, it is big to advise in the spatial dimension of 140~1850km that blower distance two-by-two can be obtained between wind power plant
Mould wind power output uncertain quick discrimination formula seven in short term:
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| CN102780219A (en) * | 2012-05-17 | 2012-11-14 | 清华大学 | Method for discriminating wind power digestion capability from multiple dimensions based on wind power operation simulation |
| CN102904248A (en) * | 2012-09-27 | 2013-01-30 | 广东电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Electric power system dispatching method based on wind electricity output uncertainty aggregation |
| CN103887813A (en) * | 2014-01-21 | 2014-06-25 | 国家电网公司 | Control method of wind power system operation based on wind power prediction uncertainty |
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| CN102780219A (en) * | 2012-05-17 | 2012-11-14 | 清华大学 | Method for discriminating wind power digestion capability from multiple dimensions based on wind power operation simulation |
| CN102904248A (en) * | 2012-09-27 | 2013-01-30 | 广东电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Electric power system dispatching method based on wind electricity output uncertainty aggregation |
| CN103887813A (en) * | 2014-01-21 | 2014-06-25 | 国家电网公司 | Control method of wind power system operation based on wind power prediction uncertainty |
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