CN105894208A - Low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment method and apparatus - Google Patents
Low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment method and apparatus Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment method. The low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment method assesses the lightning stroke trip-out risk for a low-voltage distribution line according to the lightning stroke trip-out rate, the probability of unsuccessful reclosure for trip-out, and the cost and loss, wherein the lightning stroke trip-out rate is the sum of the direct lightning stroke trip-out rate and the inductive lightning stroke trip-out rate; the probability of unsuccessful reclosure for trip-out is obtained according to the statistical rule; and the cost and loss is the sum of the labor cost, the equipment loss cost and the load loss cost. The invention also provides a low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment apparatus. The low-voltage distribution line lightning stroke risk assessment method and apparatus can accurately reflect the lightning stroke risk, can provide a basis for establishment of a lightning stroke risk assessment system for a low-voltage distribution line, can effectively reduce the damage of lightning stroke on the low-voltage distribution line, and can maintain normal and stable operation of the power grid.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method and device.
Background technology
The distribution line of low-voltage distributing line, particularly 10kV be power system send out, become, defeated, join, with in five big subsystems
The important component part of distribution system.It carries the important task to sharing of load electric energy, and therefore it safely and steadily runs to pass
Important.Have that scale is big, size is little yet with low-voltage distributing line, have a very wide distribution, the low inferior feature of dielectric level, easily
Being affected by thunder and lightning and trip accident occurs, tripping fault is likely to cause device damage each time, is unsatisfactory at equipment
During N-1 service condition, easily cause system blackout, normal production and life are caused great impact.Therefore, low-voltage distribution
It is to threaten one of power grid security key factor that circuit meets with thunderbolt.
At present, every lightning protection measures that low-voltage distributing line is formulated the best lightning protection effect, and lightning protection sets
The stable operation of standby operation maintenance improper also serious harm electrical network.Therefore, set up low-voltage distributing line, particularly 10kV distribution
The Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation system of circuit is the important means reducing distribution thunderbolt to formulate scientific and rational lightning protection strategy.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to for the deficiencies in the prior art, propose a kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation side
Method, it is possible to accurately reflect thunderbolt risk, the foundation for the Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation system of low-voltage distributing line provides effective foundation.
It is a further object of the present invention to provide a kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation device.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method, according to formula R=NPL to low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip
Risk R be estimated, wherein, N is tripping rate with lightning strike, P for tripping operation the unsuccessful probability of reclosing, L is expenses；
Tripping rate with lightning strike N is according to formula N=N1+N2Calculate, wherein N1For direct lightning strike trip-out rate, N2For induced lightening trip-out rate,
It is utilized respectively formulaCalculate, wherein, NgTable
Show that CG lightning density, η represent probability of sustained arc, DcRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike draws thunder width, IeRepresent that low-voltage distributing line is attacked directly
Lei Nailei level, I1Represent the amplitude of lightning current marginal value producing lightning induced voltage on low-voltage distributing line, S0Represent low being press-fitted
When there is induced lightening flashover in electric line, the critical flashover distance of lightning strike spot, p (I) represents amplitude of lightning current probability density function；
The tripping operation unsuccessful probability P of reclosing utilizes statistical law to calculateWherein, M1Represent that the low of statistics is press-fitted
The unsuccessful number of times of electric line lightning stroke trip reclosing, M represents the total degree of the low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip of statistics；
Expenses L is according to formula L=L1+L2+L3Calculate, wherein L1Represent and low-voltage distributing line is carried out walkaround inspection
The labour cost expended, L2Represent and change the equipment failure costs that damage equipment expends, L3Represent user have a power failure produce load damage
Mistake expense.
Further, described labour cost L1The expense paid according to standard of going on business for power department；Described equipment loses
ExpenseWherein PkRepresent that thunderbolt causes the probability of kth kind equipment fault, lkRepresent the replacing that price department appraises and decides
The loss that kth kind equipment produces.
Further, described load loss expenseWherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents low pressure
The active power curves of distribution line, T1Represent power off time, T2Represent the telegram in reply time.
Further, described load loss is takenWherein A represents electricity unit price, P (t) table
Show the active power curves of low-voltage distributing line, TkRepresent the meansigma methods changing kth kind equipment required time.
The present invention realizes also by techniques below scheme:
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation equipment, including:
Tripping rate with lightning strike determines module, for calculating low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike trip-out rate N respectively according to equation below1
With induced lightening trip-out rate N2, and calculate total tripping rate with lightning strike N=N1+N2:
Wherein, NgRepresenting CG lightning density, η represents probability of sustained arc, DcRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike draws thunder width, IeTable
Show low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike resistance to thunder level, I1Represent the amplitude of lightning current producing lightning induced voltage on low-voltage distributing line
Marginal value, S0When representing generation induced lightening flashover on low-voltage distributing line, the critical flashover distance of lightning strike spot, p (I) represents thunder and lightning
Stream amplitude probability density function；
The tripping operation unsuccessful probability determination module of reclosing, utilizes statistical law to obtain low-voltage distributing line tripping operation reclosing not
Successfully probabilityWherein, M1Represent the low-voltage distributing line unsuccessful number of times of lightning stroke trip reclosing of statistics, M table
Show the total degree of the low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip of statistics；
Expenses determines module, for calculating the expenses L=L that thunderbolt causes equipment fault to cause1+L2+L3, its
Middle L1Represent the labour cost that low-voltage distributing line is carried out walkaround inspection consuming, L2Represent and change the equipment that damage equipment expends
Failure costs, L3Represent user have a power failure produce load loss expense；
Risk evaluation module, for being estimated low-voltage distributing line thunderbolt risk according to formula R=NPL.
Further, described expenses determines that module includes that labour cost determines that module, equipment failure costs determine mould
Block, labour cost determines that module is for determining labour cost L according to the power department standard of going on business1, equipment failure costs determines mould
Block is for according to formulaDetermine described equipment failure costs L2, wherein PkRepresent that thunderbolt causes kth kind equipment fault
Probability, lkRepresent the loss that the replacing kth kind equipment that price department appraises and decides produces.
Further, described expenses determines that module also includes for according to formulaDetermine described
Load loss expense L3Load loss expense determine module, wherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents low-voltage distributing line
Active power curves, T1Represent power off time, T2Represent the telegram in reply time.
Further, described expenses determines that module also includes for according to formulaReally
Fixed described load loss expense L3Load loss expense determine module, wherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents low-voltage distribution
The active power curves of circuit, TkRepresent the meansigma methods changing kth kind faulty equipment required time.
There is advantages that
The present invention is according to tripping rate with lightning strike, expenses and tripping operation reclosing unsuccessful probability calculation low-voltage distributing line
Thunderbolt risk, it is possible to accurately reflect thunderbolt risk, the foundation for the Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation system of low-voltage distributing line provides foundation,
Effectively reduce the thunderbolt injury to low-voltage distributing line, maintain the normal table of electrical network to run.
Detailed description of the invention
Risk R of low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip is estimated by the present invention according to formula R=NPL, and wherein, N is thunder
Hitting trip-out rate, P is the tripping operation unsuccessful probability of reclosing, and L is expenses.
According to the difference of lightning strike spot position, thunderbolt can be divided into direct lightning strike and induced lightening, and therefore tripping rate with lightning strike N is direct lightning strike
Trip-out rate N1With induced lightening trip-out rate N2Sum, i.e. N=N1+N2。
China line thunder protection judges in calculating to insulate whether flashover, always the most electric with compare that insulator chain two ends occur
Pressure and insulator chain or the air gap U50%Discharge voltage method is as criterion, and overvoltage exceedes the U of insulation50%Discharge voltage is i.e.
Being judged to flashover, according to the inferior rule of Peter, low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike resistance to thunder level is
In addition to minority the Northwest, the amplitude of lightning current of the general area thunderbolt low-voltage distributing line that China's code is recommended
Probability is P (I)=10-I/88, its differential be can get amplitude of lightning current probability density function
Therefore, direct lightning strike trip-out rate N1Computing formula beWherein, η represents probability of sustained arc,
China's code considers the coupling to other phase of the system with non effectively earth ed neutral one phase flashover, provides that neutral point is non-to be had
The probability of sustained arc computing formula of effect earthed system isUeFor circuit rated voltage, ljFor insulation
Substring length, lmWire spacing for low-voltage distributing line.
When thundercloud is to the ground discharge near low-voltage distributing line, the negative charge in leader channel is neutralized rapidly, first
Produced by pathway, electric field reduces rapidly, makes the bound charge on wire be released, and move formation induced lightening along wire both sides
Overvoltage.Meanwhile, the lightning current in lightning channel establishes powerful electromagnetic field in channel circumference space, and the change of this electromagnetic field is also
It is overlapped mutually makes on wire, to produce electricity by making wire induce the highest voltage, electrostatic induction voltage and electromagnetic induction voltage
Pressure.Use electromagnetic field method to lightning induced voltage UgThe formula carrying out calculating is
TakeFor constant, at S2>>h2Time, above formula can be reduced to
Above lightning induced voltage maximum amplitude obtains based on Utopian hypothesis, and actually electrostatic induction thunder is the most electric
Pressure is also performed to revise, and therefore adds adjusted coefficient K1, thenIn lightning protection research abroad, generally take K=
38.8, and according to circuit concrete condition, take K1=0.6～0.9 is modified.China typically directly takes K1K=25 calculates sensing
Lightning overvoltage, when the induced overvoltage that thunderbolt ground produces on low-voltage distributing lineTime, circuit is exhausted
Edge substring generation flashover, defines Ug=U50%Time distance S0For critical flashover distance, therefore, line influence tripping rate with lightning strike meter
Calculation formula is
In the above-mentioned formula about calculating direct lightning strike trip-out rate and induced lightening trip-out rate, NgRepresenting CG lightning density, η represents
Probability of sustained arc, DcRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike draws thunder width, IeRepresenting low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike resistance to thunder level, I represents
Amplitude of lightning current, I1Represent the amplitude of lightning current marginal value producing lightning induced voltage on low-voltage distributing line, S0Represent low being press-fitted
When there is induced lightening flashover in electric line, the critical flashover distance of lightning strike spot, p (I) represents amplitude of lightning current probability density function.
The tripping operation unsuccessful probability P of reclosing utilizes statistical law to calculateWherein, M1For jumping according to history thunderbolt
The low-voltage distributing line tripping operation unsuccessful number of times of reclosing of lock account statistics, M is according to history lightning stroke trip account statistics
The total degree of low-voltage distributing line tripping operation；
After transmission line of electricity occurs because of the flashover fault caused that is struck by lightning, form stable power frequency arc, make breaker actuation, send out
Raw trip accident, produces corresponding loss.First, maintenance and operation ties up department to be needed to make an inspection tour circuit, produces corresponding labour cost
With, secondly, equipment generation permanent fault, faulty line need to be rushed to repair, change faulty equipment, thus create certain
Installation cost and cost of overhaul use, again, in the case of system is unsatisfactory for the N-1 method of operation, line tripping unsuccessful reclosing, will cause
User has a power failure, and produces load loss.I.e. L=L1+L2+L3, in formula, L1Represent the labour cost that circuit is carried out walkaround inspection consuming
With, L2Represent and change the equipment failure costs that damage equipment expends, L3Represent user have a power failure produce load loss expense.
Labour cost L1The expense paid according to standard of going on business for power department, for constant；
Statistical data shows, thunderbolt causes the major failure type of low-voltage distributing line device damage to have: porcelain vase bursts, wire
Break, spark gap punctures, TV breaks, conductor cord disconnection, end puncture, distribution transformer damages, shaft tower guide rod, and fall insurance burns
Bad, chopper punctures, and changes the equipment failure costs that the equipment damaged expends
In formula, PkRepresent that thunderbolt causes the probability of kth kind equipment fault, ask for according to a large amount of historical failure data, equal to such
Equipment fault historical data base sample number divided by the sum of data base, lkRepresent the replacing kth kind that price department appraises and decides
The loss that equipment produces.
Line tripping reclosing is unsuccessful, causes user and has a power failure, damage equipment to be changed or circuit is turned maintenance department
Reason, during this period of time due to user have a power failure produce coincidence loss expenseIn formula, A represents electricity
Unit price, the data appraised and decided according to price department carry out value, and P (t) represents the active power curves of low-voltage distributing line, TkRepresent
Change the meansigma methods of kth kind equipment required time.
The above, only presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, therefore can not limit, with this, the scope that the present invention implements, i.e.
The equivalence change made according to scope of the present invention patent and description and modification, all should still belong to what patent of the present invention contained
In the range of.
Claims (8)
1. a low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method, it is characterised in that: according to formula R=NPL to low-voltage distribution wire
Risk R of road lightning stroke trip is estimated, and wherein, N is tripping rate with lightning strike, and P is the tripping operation unsuccessful probability of reclosing, and L is expense
With loss；
Tripping rate with lightning strike N is according to formula N=N1+N2Calculate, wherein N1For direct lightning strike trip-out rate, N2For induced lightening trip-out rate, difference
Utilize formulaCalculate, wherein, NgRepresent ground
Dodging density, η represents probability of sustained arc, DcRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike draws thunder width, IeRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike is resistance to
Thunder level, I1Represent the amplitude of lightning current marginal value producing lightning induced voltage on low-voltage distributing line, S0Represent low-voltage distribution wire
When there is induced lightening flashover on road, the critical flashover distance of lightning strike spot, p (I) represents amplitude of lightning current probability density function；
The tripping operation unsuccessful probability P of reclosing utilizes statistical law to calculateWherein, M1Represent the low-voltage distribution wire of statistics
The road unsuccessful number of times of lightning stroke trip reclosing, M represents the total degree of the low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip of statistics；
Expenses L is according to formula L=L1+L2+L3Calculate, wherein L1Represent and low-voltage distributing line is carried out walkaround inspection consuming
Labour cost, L2Represent and change the equipment failure costs that damage equipment expends, L3Represent user have a power failure produce load loss expense
With.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: described manually
Expense L1The expense paid according to standard of going on business for power department, described equipment failure costsWherein PkRepresent thunder
Hit the probability causing kth kind equipment fault, lkRepresent the loss that the replacing kth kind equipment that price department appraises and decides produces.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described load
Failure costsWherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents the active power curves of low-voltage distributing line, T1
Represent power off time, T2Represent the telegram in reply time.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 2, it is characterised in that: described load
Financial lossWherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents that the active power of low-voltage distributing line is bent
Line, TkRepresent the meansigma methods changing kth kind equipment required time.
5. a low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation equipment, it is characterised in that: including:
Tripping rate with lightning strike determines module, for calculating low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike trip-out rate N respectively according to equation below1And sense
Answer thunder trip-out rate N2, and calculate total tripping rate with lightning strike N=N1+N2:
Wherein, NgRepresenting CG lightning density, η represents probability of sustained arc, DcRepresent that low-voltage distributing line direct lightning strike draws thunder width, IeRepresent low
It is press-fitted electric line direct lightning strike resistance to thunder level, I1Represent that the amplitude of lightning current producing lightning induced voltage on low-voltage distributing line is critical
Value, S0When representing generation induced lightening flashover on low-voltage distributing line, the critical flashover distance of lightning strike spot, p (I) represents lightning current width
Value probability density function；
The tripping operation unsuccessful probability determination module of reclosing, utilizes statistical law to obtain low-voltage distributing line tripping operation reclosing unsuccessful
ProbabilityWherein, M1Representing the low-voltage distributing line unsuccessful number of times of lightning stroke trip reclosing of statistics, M represents system
The total degree of the low-voltage distributing line lightning stroke trip of meter；
Expenses determines module, for calculating the expenses L=L that thunderbolt causes equipment fault to cause1+L2+L3, wherein L1Table
Show the labour cost that low-voltage distributing line is carried out walkaround inspection consuming, L2Represent and change the equipment financial loss that damage equipment expends
With, L3Represent user have a power failure produce load loss expense；
Risk evaluation module, for being estimated low-voltage distributing line thunderbolt risk according to formula R=NPL.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 5, it is characterised in that: described expense
Loss determines that module includes that labour cost determines that module, equipment failure costs determine that module, labour cost determine that module is for root
Labour cost L is determined according to the power department standard of going on business1, equipment failure costs determines that module is for according to formulaReally
Fixed described equipment failure costs L2, wherein PkRepresent that thunderbolt causes the probability of kth kind equipment fault, lkRepresent that price department appraises and decides
Replacing kth kind equipment produce loss.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: described expense
Loss determines that module also includes for according to formulaDetermine described load loss expense L3Load loss take
With determining module, wherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents the active power curves of low-voltage distributing line, T1When representing power failure
Between, T2Represent the telegram in reply time.
A kind of low-voltage distributing line Lightning Strike Risk Evaluation method the most according to claim 6, it is characterised in that: described expense
Loss determines that module also includes for according to formulaDetermine described load loss expense L3Negative
Lotus failure costs determines module, and wherein A represents electricity unit price, and P (t) represents the active power curves of low-voltage distributing line, TkTable
Show the meansigma methods changing kth kind faulty equipment required time.
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108599118A (en) * | 2018-06-29 | 2018-09-28 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Low and medium voltage distribution network neutral grounding mode decision-making technique based on Risk Theory |
| CN112365038A (en) * | 2020-10-30 | 2021-02-12 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution line lightning stroke tripping probability evaluation method and system |
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| CN102662120A (en) * | 2012-05-30 | 2012-09-12 | 广东电网公司佛山供电局 | Low-voltage distribution line lightning trip risk evaluation method and device |
| CN103439602A (en) * | 2013-08-21 | 2013-12-11 | 国家电网公司 | Thunder trip-out rate calculating method for distributing line |
| CN104463700A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-03-25 | 国家电网公司 | Power transmission line tower lightning strike risk evaluation method based on data mining technology |
| CN105160049A (en) * | 2015-05-29 | 2015-12-16 | 国家电网公司 | Method for calculating direct lightning tripping-out rate of distribution line up to 35kV |
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2016
- 2016-04-18 CN CN201610240583.4A patent/CN105894208A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102662120A (en) * | 2012-05-30 | 2012-09-12 | 广东电网公司佛山供电局 | Low-voltage distribution line lightning trip risk evaluation method and device |
| CN103439602A (en) * | 2013-08-21 | 2013-12-11 | 国家电网公司 | Thunder trip-out rate calculating method for distributing line |
| CN104463700A (en) * | 2014-12-05 | 2015-03-25 | 国家电网公司 | Power transmission line tower lightning strike risk evaluation method based on data mining technology |
| CN105160049A (en) * | 2015-05-29 | 2015-12-16 | 国家电网公司 | Method for calculating direct lightning tripping-out rate of distribution line up to 35kV |
Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN108599118A (en) * | 2018-06-29 | 2018-09-28 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Low and medium voltage distribution network neutral grounding mode decision-making technique based on Risk Theory |
| CN112365038A (en) * | 2020-10-30 | 2021-02-12 | 广西电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Distribution line lightning stroke tripping probability evaluation method and system |
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Inventor after: Wang Zheng Inventor after: Cai Xiaoyou Inventor after: Lin Wenyuan Inventor after: Li Mingwei Inventor after: Cai Xincan Inventor after: Hong Wenming Inventor before: Wang Zheng Inventor before: Cai Xiaoyou Inventor before: Lin Wenyuan |
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Application publication date: 20160824 |