CN105653764B - Power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation and method for early warning - Google Patents
Power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation and method for early warning Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation and method for early warning, belong to power system automation technology field.The present invention is based on the control strategies of EMS the power grid current method of operation and second and third road defence line provided, for the forecast failure collection of second and third road defence line examination, it is calculated by time-domain-simulation and simulates the anti-thread control device movement in second and third road, failure is obtained to subtract for load total amount, lose number of users and decompression plant stand number, according to《The disposition of electric power safety accident emergency and regulations of investigating》With《China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation regulation》Requirement divide the power grid safety accident risk class of forecast failure, and determine according to accident risk grade the important level of faulty equipment.The present invention realizes online evaluation and the early warning of power grid safety accident risk class, has established technical foundation for the real-time early warning and pre-control of power grid safety accident.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system automation technology fields, and specifically the present invention relates to a kind of power grid safety accident wind
Dangerous grade online evaluation and method for early warning.
Background technique
With the development of economy, network load total amount in China's increases year by year.Important electric load concentration, power grid electrical link
Closely, alternating current-direct current is resulted in the potential safety and stability problem of power grid by characteristics such as electricity on a large scale and increased, and is increased generation and is seriously stopped
The risk of electrification.Accident once occurs, it will causes serious economic loss and social influence.599 command of State Council《Electric power
Security incident response disposition and regulations of investigating》(hereinafter referred to as《Regulations》) pacified according to electric power safety accident impact electric system
The degree of full stable operation, is divided into special major accident, major accident, compared with major break down and ordinary accident for accident, and according to electricity
Net load class and regionality have formulated power grid load shedding ratio, user's power failure ratio and accident rank judgment criteria respectively；
《China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident incident investigation regulation》Middle south power grid accident incident investigation regulation is (following
Referred to as《Regulation》) accident event is also divided into five grades, and define user corresponding to events at different levels and lose number and mistake
Press plant stand number.
More than being directed at present《Regulations》With《Regulation》Power grid safety accident risk class assessment mostly use off-line analysis
Means, system practical operation situation can not be represented by calculating data, and analytical calculation low efficiency lies substantially in subsequent statistical analysis,
It cannot achieve the early warning to power grid safety accident.Therefore, there is an urgent need to power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation technologies, real
Now to the early warning of safety accident and pre-control.
Summary of the invention
Object of the present invention is to：It can only off-line analysis, subsequent statistics for the assessment of existing power grid safety accident risk class
Mode, provide a kind of power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation method, this method is based on powernet data and anticipation
Failure, solving existing power grid safety accident risk class assessment technology can not asking for serious safety accident on-line early warning
Topic.
Specifically, the present invention adopts the following technical solutions realize, include the following steps：
1) data acquisition is calculated：The current method of operation of power grid that is there is provided based on EMS, element static dynamic model parameters and the
Two, the control strategy of three lines of defence, which is formed, calculates data, using second defence line and three lines of defence examination fault set as anticipation
Fault set, Safety system obtain the action situation of security control device after forecast failure under the current method of operation according to control strategy；
2) simulation calculation of forecast failure：It is calculated, is imitated according to the time-domain-simulation that the calculating data of acquisition carry out forecast failure
True calculating is fallen into a trap and the movement of second defence line feedback-type security control device, three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device action and power grid
Disconnection device movement, and the system sectionalizing situation that failure directly results in is obtained by the method for topological analysis；
3) load loss result statisticallys analyze：On the basis of the simulation result of forecast failure, directly led according to failure
The load loss amount and corresponding load equipment that the system sectionalizing situation statistics failure of cause directly results in, according to the dynamic of security control device
Make situation and count corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment, according to three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and electricity
The action situation of net disconnection device counts corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment；Then according to load loss amount,
Load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment are lost, is calculated in pre-set power grid scope since electric power safety accident causes power grid to subtract
For load proportion, the decompression plant stand number for the user's power failure ratio and different voltages grade of powering；
4) conversion of safety accident risk class and early warning：According to loss load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment, according to state affairs
599 command of institute《The disposition of electric power safety accident emergency and regulations of investigating》With《China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power
Accident event investigates regulation》Defined network load rank and regional acquisition threshold value, will subtract for load proportion, power supply user
Power failure ratio and decompression plant stand number and 599 command of State Council《The disposition of electric power safety accident emergency and regulations of investigating》With《In
South electric network Co., Ltd of state electric power accident incident investigation regulation》Defined threshold value is compared, and determines safety accident
Grade, and determine according to safety accident event class the important level of faulty equipment, all forecast failures are traversed, by accident risk
Grade is unsatisfactory for desired forecast failure and its faulty equipment exports and provides alarm.
Above-mentioned technical proposal is further characterized by：In the step 3), the system sectionalizing that is directly resulted in for failure
The case where causing system sectionalizing with three lines of defence disconnection device counts generation load before sub-island failure, if it exists nothing in sub-island
Generator, sub-island power generation do not reach one of load total amount threshold situation up to power generation total amount threshold and sub-island load, then recognize
It is unsatisfactory for service condition for sub-island, which is referred to as dangerous sub-island, and dangerous sub-island load is counted on failure and loses load
In total amount.
Above-mentioned technical proposal is further characterized by：In the step 3), calculates subtract for duty ratio according to the following formula
Example：
Wherein, p is to subtract for load proportion, ltDirectly cause to lose load total amount, l for failurecFor cutting load total amount after failure,
lallFor system total load amount before failure, the above load statistic is directed to inside pre-set power grid scope.
Above-mentioned technical proposal is further characterized by：In the step 3), obtained from forecast failure loss load equipment
Corresponding user information is taken, statistics loss number of users calculates power supply user's power failure ratio.
Beneficial effects of the present invention are as follows：The present invention is based on the EMS current method of operation of power grid provided and second and third road are anti-
The control strategy of line is calculated by time-domain-simulation for the forecast failure collection of second and third road defence line examination and simulates second and third
The anti-thread control device movement in road, obtains failure and subtracts for load total amount, loss number of users and decompression plant stand number, and according to《Regulations》With
《Regulation》Requirement divide forecast failure power grid safety accident risk class, for power grid safety accident risk class online comment
Estimate and has established technical foundation with early warning.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is flow chart of the invention.
Specific embodiment
Below with reference to embodiment and referring to attached drawing, present invention is further described in detail.
Embodiment 1：
One embodiment of the present of invention, step are as shown in Figure 1：
Step 1 describes to calculate the acquisition of data in Fig. 1, and the current method of operation of power grid provided based on EMS, element are quiet
The control strategy in state dynamic model parameters and second and third road defence line, which is formed, calculates data, it is contemplated that fault set be second defence line and
Fault set is examined in three lines of defence.Wherein, Safety system obtains according to control strategy and pacifies after forecast failure under the current method of operation
Control device action situation.
Step 2 describes the simulation calculation of forecast failure in Fig. 1, i.e., carries out forecast failure according to the calculating data of acquisition
Time-domain-simulation calculate.Wherein, simulation calculation fall into a trap and second defence line feedback-type security control device movement, three lines of defence low frequency
Low-voltage load sheding device action and grid disconnection device action, and the system that failure directly results in is obtained by the method for topological analysis
Off-the-line situation.
Step 3 describes load loss result statistical analysis in Fig. 1, i.e., on the simulation result basis of forecast failure
On, the load loss amount and corresponding load that the system sectionalizing situation statistics failure directly resulted according to failure directly results in are set
It is standby；Corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment are counted according to the action situation of security control device；According to three lines of defence
The action situation of low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and grid disconnection device counts corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment；
According to load loss amount, loss load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment, calculate in pre-set power grid scope due to power ampere
Full accident causes power grid to subtract the decompression plant stand number for load proportion, the user's power failure ratio and different voltages grade of powering；
Failure directly results in system sectionalizing and three lines of defence disconnection device causes load loss amount when system sectionalizing to count
Method is as follows：Generation load before statistics sub-island failure does not reach power generation total amount threshold without generator, sub-island power generation in sub-island if it exists
And sub-island load does not reach one of load total amount threshold situation, then it is assumed that sub-island is unsatisfactory for service condition, which is referred to as
Dangerous sub-island, and dangerous sub-island load is counted on into failure and is lost in load total amount.
The calculation method subtracted for load proportion is as follows：
Wherein, p is to subtract for load proportion, ltDirectly cause to lose load total amount, l for failurecFor cutting load total amount after failure,
lallFor system total load amount before failure, the above load statistic is directed to inside pre-set power grid scope.
User's power failure ratio of powering and the statistical method of decompression plant stand number are as follows：
Corresponding user information is obtained from forecast failure loss load equipment, statistics loss number of users calculates power supply and uses
Family power failure ratio.If all users of certain plant stand are loss load user, which is decompression plant stand, statistics anticipation respectively
500kV decompression plant stand number, 220kV decompression plant stand number, 110kV decompression plant stand number, 35kV decompression plant stand number under failure.
Step 4 describes the conversion of safety accident risk class and early warning in Fig. 1, i.e., according to loss load equipment and equipment
Affiliated plant stand, according to《Regulations》With《Regulation》Defined network load rank and regional acquisition threshold value；It will subtract for duty ratio
Example, power supply user's power failure ratio and decompression plant stand number with《Regulations》With《Regulation》Defined threshold value is compared, and determines safety
Incident classification, and determine according to safety accident event class the important level of faulty equipment；All forecast failures are traversed, by accident
Risk class is unsatisfactory for desired forecast failure and its faulty equipment exports and provides alarm.
For《Regulations》With《Regulation》The threshold value of defined, according to loss load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment according to negative
Lotus rank and regional acquisition.If system safety after the anti-thread control device movement in second and third road, system safety accident grade pair
Answer " special major accident ", " major accident ", " compared with major break down ", " ordinary accident ", " below standard accident "；If second and third road is anti-
System is still dangerous after thread control device movement, then system safety accident grade corresponds to " special major accident ", " is greater than great thing
Therefore ", " be greater than compared with major break down ", " being greater than ordinary accident " and " latent defect ".
In short, power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation and method for early warning are currently run based on the power grid that EMS is provided
The control strategy of mode and second and third road defence line passes through time-domain-simulation for the forecast failure collection of second and third road defence line examination
The anti-thread control device movement in second and third road is calculated and simulated, failure is obtained and subtracts for load total amount, loss number of users and decompression plant stand
Number, and according to《Regulations》With《Regulation》Requirement divide forecast failure power grid safety accident risk class, be power grid security thing
Therefore early warning and pre-control established technical foundation.
Although the present invention has been described by way of example and in terms of the preferred embodiments, embodiment is not for the purpose of limiting the invention.Not
It is detached from the spirit and scope of the present invention, any equivalent change or retouch done also belongs to the protection scope of the present invention.Cause
This protection scope of the present invention should be based on the content defined in the claims of this application.
Claims (3)
1. power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation and method for early warning, which is characterized in that include the following steps：
1) data acquisition is calculated：Based on EMS provide the current method of operation of power grid, element static dynamic model parameters and second,
The control strategy of three lines of defence, which is formed, calculates data, using second defence line and three lines of defence examination fault set as forecast failure
Collection, Safety system obtain the action situation of security control device after forecast failure under the current method of operation according to control strategy；
2) simulation calculation of forecast failure：It is calculated according to the time-domain-simulation that the calculating data of acquisition carry out forecast failure, emulation meter
Calculation is fallen into a trap and the movement of second defence line feedback-type security control device, three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device action and grid disconnection
Device action, and the system sectionalizing situation that failure directly results in is obtained by the method for topological analysis；
3) load loss result statisticallys analyze：On the basis of the simulation result of forecast failure, directly resulted according to failure
The load loss amount and corresponding load equipment that system sectionalizing situation statistics failure directly results in, according to the movement feelings of security control device
Condition counts corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment, according to three lines of defence low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device and power grid solution
The action situation of array apparatus counts corresponding load loss amount and corresponding load equipment；Then according to load loss amount, loss
Load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment calculate in pre-set power grid scope since electric power safety accident causes power grid to subtract for negative
The decompression plant stand number of lotus ratio, the user's power failure ratio and different voltages grade of powering；
It calculates and subtracts for load proportion according to the following formula：
Wherein, p is to subtract for load proportion, ltDirectly cause to lose load total amount, l for failurecFor cutting load total amount, l after failureallFor
System total load amount before failure, the above load statistic are directed to inside pre-set power grid scope；
4) conversion of safety accident risk class and early warning：According to loss load equipment and the affiliated plant stand of equipment, according to State Council 599
Command《The disposition of electric power safety accident emergency and regulations of investigating》With《China Nanfang Grid Co., Ltd's electric power accident thing
Part investigates regulation》Defined network load rank and regional acquisition threshold value, will subtract for load proportion, power supply user's power failure ratio
Example and decompression plant stand number and 599 command of State Council《The disposition of electric power safety accident emergency and regulations of investigating》With《Southern china
Power grid Co., Ltd electric power accident incident investigation regulation》Defined threshold value is compared, and determines safety accident grade, and
The important level that faulty equipment is determined according to safety accident event class traverses all forecast failures, not by accident risk grade
The forecast failure and its faulty equipment met the requirements exports and provides alarm.
2. power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation according to claim 1 and method for early warning, it is characterised in that：Institute
It states in step 3), the case where system sectionalizing and three lines of defence disconnection device directly resulted in for failure causes system sectionalizing,
Generation load before statistics sub-island failure does not reach power generation total amount threshold and sub-island without generator, sub-island power generation in sub-island if it exists
Load does not reach one of load total amount threshold situation, then it is assumed that sub-island is unsatisfactory for service condition, which is referred to as dangerous son
Island, and dangerous sub-island load is counted on into failure and is lost in load total amount.
3. power grid safety accident risk class online evaluation according to claim 1 and method for early warning, it is characterised in that：Institute
It states in step 3), corresponding user information is obtained from forecast failure loss load equipment, statistics loss number of users calculates power supply
User's power failure ratio.
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| CN110232203B (en) * | 2019-04-22 | 2020-03-03 | 山东大学 | Knowledge distillation optimization RNN short-term power failure prediction method, storage medium and equipment |
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| CN110728471A (en) * | 2019-11-26 | 2020-01-24 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司 | Power grid dispatching operation safety accident grade determining method and risk index calculating method |
| CN111209535B (en) * | 2019-12-25 | 2024-02-27 | 国家电网公司西北分部 | Power equipment successive fault risk identification method and system |
| CN111242802A (en) * | 2019-12-31 | 2020-06-05 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Method and device for evaluating the power supply |
| CN111475915B (en) * | 2020-03-05 | 2022-08-19 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Successive fault online evaluation method based on fault probability and time domain simulation quasi-steady state |
| CN111929528A (en) * | 2020-06-11 | 2020-11-13 | 国网浙江省电力有限公司温州供电公司 | Monitoring and early warning method for fault risk of urban power grid equipment |
| CN112001588A (en) * | 2020-07-17 | 2020-11-27 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Accident event online pre-judging method and device based on N-1 state |
| CN113078649B (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2021-11-16 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power grid accident event grade pre-judging system and method based on sensitivity analysis and equipment fault rate |
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