CN105574639A - Method for evaluating uncertain traffic pollution gas emission control plans - Google Patents
Method for evaluating uncertain traffic pollution gas emission control plans Download PDFInfo
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- CN105574639A CN105574639A CN201510533356.6A CN201510533356A CN105574639A CN 105574639 A CN105574639 A CN 105574639A CN 201510533356 A CN201510533356 A CN 201510533356A CN 105574639 A CN105574639 A CN 105574639A
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- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 title abstract description 9
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- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 24
- 238000011156 evaluation Methods 0.000 claims description 21
- 238000007599 discharging Methods 0.000 claims description 12
- 238000010276 construction Methods 0.000 claims description 10
- 239000013598 vector Substances 0.000 claims description 10
- OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon Chemical compound [C] OKTJSMMVPCPJKN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- 229910052799 carbon Inorganic materials 0.000 claims description 7
- 230000007935 neutral effect Effects 0.000 claims description 7
- UGFAIRIUMAVXCW-UHFFFAOYSA-N Carbon monoxide Chemical compound [O+]#[C-] UGFAIRIUMAVXCW-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000010206 sensitivity analysis Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000013210 evaluation model Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000013507 mapping Methods 0.000 claims description 4
- 150000002894 organic compounds Chemical class 0.000 claims description 4
- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 3
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- 230000035945 sensitivity Effects 0.000 abstract 1
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- IJGRMHOSHXDMSA-UHFFFAOYSA-N Atomic nitrogen Chemical compound N#N IJGRMHOSHXDMSA-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 2
- 239000004215 Carbon black (E152) Substances 0.000 description 2
- 229910002091 carbon monoxide Inorganic materials 0.000 description 2
- 229930195733 hydrocarbon Natural products 0.000 description 2
- 150000002430 hydrocarbons Chemical class 0.000 description 2
- 238000012216 screening Methods 0.000 description 2
- RZVHIXYEVGDQDX-UHFFFAOYSA-N 9,10-anthraquinone Chemical compound C1=CC=C2C(=O)C3=CC=CC=C3C(=O)C2=C1 RZVHIXYEVGDQDX-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for evaluating uncertain traffic pollution gas emission control plans. On the basis of analyzing various factors influencing selection of traffic pollution gas emission control plans, with reference to the monitoring data of road traffic pollution gas emission and the experience of experts, and through analyzing the sensitivity of different risk attitudes of decision makers to sorting of the alternative traffic pollution gas emission control plans a plurality of satisfactory plans are selected from alternative traffic pollution gas emission control plans such as speed limiting, one-way traffic, traffic channeling and signal timing and sorted, thus obtaining a best plan. The method is mainly applied to intelligent decision making analysis used for evaluating the advantage and disadvantage of a plurality of uncertain traffic pollution gas emission control plans, so as to provide decision making support for the management to select the best traffic pollution gas emission control emergency plan.
Description
Technical field:
The present invention relates to traffic environment technical field, specifically a kind of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method.
Background technology:
The carbon monoxide (CO) of automotive emission, hydrocarbon (HC), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and particle (PM) are the main composition elements of urban air pollution.Along with the undergoes rapid expansion with population that develops rapidly of urban economy construction, the vehicle flowrate of urban road also increases sharply thereupon, and Motorization degree aggravates the atmospheric pollution caused, and has become one of principal element affecting city environmental quality.
Therefore, how controlling traffic pollution gas discharging is a hot issue.Research outside Present Domestic shows, automotive emission and traffic flow behavior closely related, vehicle keeping straight on, change, to overtake other vehicles and in the driving process such as turning, frequent acceleration and deceleration can cause disposal of pollutants to aggravate.For the formation mechenism of traffic emission gaseous contamination, Chinese scholars proposes corresponding pollution prevention measure, concentrate on signal control, speeds control, one-way traffic, public traffic in priority, driving behavior, no-stop charging system research aspect, according to actual traffic environment, how to assess the significance level of these control measure to traffic pollution gas discharging, select best traffic pollution evaporative control scheme to be a problem demanding prompt solution.But, traffic pollution evaporative control evaluate alternatives aspect research is both at home and abroad comparatively rare at present, what especially the Stochastic sum ambiguity of traffic pollution gas discharging environment caused in traffic construction, traffic flow and carbon emission process is uncertain, considering that the experience one-sidedness of decision maker personnel also causes cannot utilize an exact numerical to portray each factor affecting traffic pollution gas discharging simultaneously, therefore the more realistic demand of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control evaluate alternatives.
In sum, urgently seek the traffic pollution evaporative control evaluate alternatives under various complex dynamic environment condition and method for optimizing, for multiple alternative control program, traffic pollution gas discharging is reduced efficiently for target with least cost, realize from scheme implementation, the many aspects such as influence on traffic flow and traffic carbon emission carry out sequence with preferred to them, from the extensive management of artificial experience decision-making to dynamic management, precision management, the transformation of quantitative management and scientific management, for the dusty gas control emission decision-making of vehicle supervision department provides theories integration and technical support.
Summary of the invention:
In order to solve the problem, the invention provides a kind of on the various influence factor bases of analyzing influence traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice, for speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, the traffic pollution evaporative control alternativess such as signal timing dial, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, for speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, the traffic pollution evaporative control alternativess such as signal timing dial, by the different attitudes toward risk of analysis decision person to the sensitivity analysis of traffic pollution gas discharging management and control ranking alternatives, several satisfied schemes are therefrom selected to carry out the technical scheme sorted:
A kind of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, comprises the following steps:
(1) for the traffic pollution evaporative control alternatives of speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, signal timing dial, from scheme implementation, influence on traffic flow and traffic carbon emission three visual angles, the decision-making index system affecting Scheme Choice is built;
(2) uncertain for the multiple ATTRIBUTE INDEX affecting traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, build the original decision matrix of traffic pollution evaporative control scheme interval number;
(3) attitudes toward risk of decision maker is considered, as: pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, introduce its Interval Maps function, there is under this uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions problem is converted into certain attitudes toward risk factor meaning the traditional decision problem of fixed-point values;
(4) according to TOPSIS principle, the evaluation of estimate of traffic pollution gas discharging management and control any alternative scheme under the attitudes toward risk of often kind of decision maker is calculated;
(5) by the different attitudes toward risk of analysis decision person to the sensitivity analysis of traffic pollution gas discharging management and control ranking alternatives, therefrom select several satisfied schemes to sort, obtain preferred plan.
As preferably, in step (1), build the index system affecting traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice, altogether n=11 separate index
, wherein: scheme implementation aspect comprises input cost, construction period, construction difficulty or ease; Influence on traffic flow aspect comprises complexity, the traffic hazard incidence of the speed of a motor vehicle, the volume of traffic, trip delay, trip; Traffic carbon emission aspect comprises oxynitrides, organic compound, monoxide.The weight vectors of these indexs is
.
As preferably, in step (2), always have a m>=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control scheme
, as: speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, signal timing dial etc., consider the random disturbance of the external environment condition such as weather, traffic hazard, the multiple indexs involved by them have uncertainty, utilize interval number
portray any control program S
icorresponding to certain index Q
j a uncertain value.In like manner, the weight vectors of these indexs is
, wherein
.
As preferably, traffic pollution evaporative control scheme S in step (1)
i corresponding to certain index
q
jan indeterminacy section value
, consider the attitudes toward risk of decision maker, as: pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, introduce its Interval Maps function
, by this interval value
uncertain traffic pollution control multi-index decision problem and be converted into different decision maker's attitudes toward risk factor
under situation, there is fixed-point values
conventional traffic Environmental capacity multi-index decision problem.When the attitudes toward risk of decision maker is pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, accordingly
span is respectively:
with
.Wherein:
for interval
midrange, namely
;
for interval
width, namely
.
As preferably, when determining m in step (1)
>=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control schemes
and involved n
the set of>=2 separate indexs
, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, build the decision matrix of this problem
with the weight vectors of index
, calculate certain attitudes toward risk of decision maker
the evaluation of estimate of each traffic pollution evaporative control scheme under situation, key step comprises:
Step 1: according to the attitudes toward risk of decision maker
, utilize its mapping function
, by this interval type traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix
with the weight vectors of index
be converted into
under situation, there is fixed-point values decision matrix
with
;
Step 2: by decision maker's attitudes toward risk factor
fixed-point values traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix under situation
specification turns to
, form weighted normal decision matrix accordingly
, wherein:
,
;
Step 3: at traffic pollution evaporative control scheme weighted normal decision matrix
on basis, determine the Positive ideal point of alternatives set
and Negative ideal point
, that is:
Wherein J is the collection of profit evaluation model index; J ' is the collection of cost type index;
Step 4: according to the positive Negative ideal point of each traffic pollution evaporative control scheme to alternatives set;
Step 5: distance
with
, calculate its connecting to plus-minus ideal solutions
, i.e. the evaluation of estimate of each control program:
。
Beneficial effect of the present invention is:
The present invention affects on the decision-making index system basis of traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice at structure, utilize interval number to portray to relate to multiple attribute-value pairs of this problem, consider the attitudes toward risk of decision maker, assess the quality of uncertain traffic pollution gas discharging management and control any alternative scheme, for supvr selects best traffic pollution gas discharging management and control emergency plan to provide decision support.
Accompanying drawing illustrates:
Fig. 1 is the structural representation that the present invention relates to;
Fig. 2 is process flow diagram of the invention process.
Embodiment:
For making goal of the invention of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiments of the present invention are described in further detail.
As shown in Figure 1, as shown in Figure 1, the invention provides a kind of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, affect on the decision-making index system basis of traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice at structure, for speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, the traffic pollution evaporative control alternativess such as signal timing dial, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, build the original decision matrix of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control scheme interval number, according to the attitudes toward risk considering decision maker, introduce its Interval Maps function, there is under this indeterminacy section type decision problem is converted into certain attitudes toward risk factor meaning the traditional decision problem of fixed-point values, calculate the evaluation of estimate of any alternative scheme under respective risk attitude accordingly, finally by analysis decision person different attitudes toward risk to control ranking alternatives sensitivity analysis, therefrom obtain preferred plan.The present invention is that supvr selects best emergency flight control scheme to provide decision support under stochastic traffic dusty gas discharge environment.
As shown in Figure 2, as shown in Figure 2, the invention provides a kind of uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, comprise and build index system and screening alternatives, data encasement: build the original decision matrix of interval type, consider the fixed-point values traditional decision matrix of decision maker attitudes toward risk, calculate alternatives evaluation of estimate under often kind of decision maker's attitudes toward risk and Evaluation of Alternatives and preferably several step such as to use, embodiment is as follows.
Step 1: n the assessment indicator system building traffic pollution evaporative control scheme
Adopt the method that quantitative and qualitative combines, from scheme implementation, influence on traffic flow and traffic carbon emission three aspects, altogether screen n=11 separate index
relate to complexity, traffic hazard incidence, oxynitrides, organic compound, the monoxide of input cost, construction period, construction difficulty or ease, the speed of a motor vehicle, the volume of traffic, trip delay, trip, wherein: cost type index comprises complexity, traffic hazard incidence, oxynitrides, organic compound, the monoxide of input cost, construction period, construction difficulty or ease, trip delay, trip; Profit evaluation model index comprises the speed of a motor vehicle, the volume of traffic.
Step 2: an input m >=2 screening alternatives
Invitation is expounded through peer review, and filters out m >=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control schemes such as speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, signal timing dial.
Step 3: data encasement
A step 3.1 pair m>=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control scheme
and the set of an involved n>=2 separate index
, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, consider the random disturbance of the external environment condition such as weather, traffic hazard, utilize interval number
portray any control program S
i corresponding to certain index Q
j a uncertain value, build the interval type decision matrix of this uncertain problem
.
Step 3.2 considers the experience ambiguity of decision maker, and the weight utilizing interval number to portray its index is uncertain, and the weight vectors of index is
, wherein
.
,
.
Step 4: the fixed-point values traditional decision matrix considering decision maker's attitudes toward risk
Step 4.1 considers the attitudes toward risk of decision maker
, interval of definition type mapping function
;
Step 4.2 is when assessing uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control scheme good and bad, and the attitudes toward risk arranging decision maker is respectively pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, that is accordingly
span is respectively :-0.5≤
< 0
with 0 <
≤ 0.5.
Step 4.3 is according to the above-mentioned different attitudes toward risk of decision maker
, utilize its mapping function, by this interval type traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix
with the weight vectors of index
be converted into
under situation, there is fixed-point values decision matrix
with
.
Step 5: travel through often kind of attitudes toward risk, checked whether, if return step 8; Otherwise return step 6.Make i=1.
Step 6: the evaluation of estimate calculating each the alternatives i under often kind of decision maker's attitudes toward risk
Step 6.1: by decision maker's attitudes toward risk factor
fixed-point values traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix under situation
specification turns to
, form weighted normal decision matrix accordingly
, wherein:
,
.
Step 6.2: at traffic pollution evaporative control scheme weighted normal decision matrix
on basis, determine the Positive ideal point of alternatives set
and Negative ideal point
, that is:
Wherein: J is the collection of profit evaluation model index; J ' is the collection of cost type index.
Step 6.3: according to alternatives
to the positive Negative ideal point distance of alternatives set
with
, calculate its connecting to plus-minus ideal solutions
, i.e. the evaluation of estimate of each control program:
.
Step 7:i=i+1.Judge
if complete calculating, press
descending order arranges alternatives, and correspondingly, the scheme come above preferentially adopts; Otherwise, return step 6.
Step 8: according to the needs of decision analysis, can draw the sensitivity analysis of the schemes ranking result under given attitudes toward risk factor ε meaning, can choose different ε values, and draw the impact of ε on schemes ranking.
Above-described embodiment is preferred embodiment of the present invention; it is not the restriction to technical solution of the present invention; as long as without the technical scheme that creative work can realize on the basis of above-described embodiment, all should be considered as falling within the scope of the rights protection of patent of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. a uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, is characterized in that: comprise the following steps:
(1) for the traffic pollution evaporative control alternatives of speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, signal timing dial, from scheme implementation, influence on traffic flow and traffic carbon emission three visual angles, the decision-making index system affecting Scheme Choice is built;
(2) uncertain for the multiple ATTRIBUTE INDEX affecting traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, build the original decision matrix of traffic pollution evaporative control scheme interval number;
(3) attitudes toward risk of decision maker is considered, as: pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, introduce its Interval Maps function, there is under this uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions problem is converted into certain attitudes toward risk factor meaning the traditional decision problem of fixed-point values;
(4) according to TOPSIS principle, the evaluation of estimate of traffic pollution gas discharging management and control any alternative scheme under the attitudes toward risk of often kind of decision maker is calculated;
(5) by the different attitudes toward risk of analysis decision person to the sensitivity analysis of traffic pollution gas discharging management and control ranking alternatives, therefrom select several satisfied schemes to sort, obtain preferred plan.
2. one according to claim 1 uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, it is characterized in that: in described step (1), build the index system affecting traffic pollution evaporative control Scheme Choice, altogether n=11 separate index
, wherein: scheme implementation aspect comprises input cost, construction period, construction difficulty or ease; Influence on traffic flow aspect comprises complexity, the traffic hazard incidence of the speed of a motor vehicle, the volume of traffic, trip delay, trip; Traffic carbon emission aspect comprises oxynitrides, organic compound, monoxide; The weight vectors of its index is
.
3. one according to claim 1 and 2 uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, is characterized in that: total total m>=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control scheme in described step (2)
, as: speed limit, one-way traffic, traffic channelling, signal timing dial etc., consider the random disturbance of the external environment condition such as weather, traffic hazard, the multiple indexs involved by them have uncertainty, utilize interval number
portray any control program S
icorresponding to certain index Q
j a uncertain value; Its weight vectors is
, wherein
.
4. one according to claim 1 uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, is characterized in that: traffic pollution evaporative control scheme S in described step (1)
i corresponding to certain index
q
jan indeterminacy section value
, consider the attitudes toward risk of decision maker, as: pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, introduce its Interval Maps function
, by this interval value
uncertain traffic pollution control multi-index decision problem and be converted into different decision maker's attitudes toward risk factor
under situation, there is fixed-point values
conventional traffic Environmental capacity multi-index decision problem; When the attitudes toward risk of decision maker is pessimistic type, neutral type and optimistic type, accordingly
span is respectively:
with
; Wherein:
for interval
midrange, namely
;
for interval
width, namely
.
5. one according to claim 4 uncertain traffic pollution evaporative control schemes evaluation method, is characterized in that: when determining m in described step (1)
>=2 alternative traffic pollution evaporative control schemes
and involved n
the set of>=2 separate indexs
, in conjunction with road traffic pollution emission monitoring data and expertise, build the decision matrix of this problem
with the weight vectors of index
, calculate certain attitudes toward risk of decision maker
the evaluation of estimate of each traffic pollution evaporative control scheme under situation, key step comprises:
Step 1: according to the attitudes toward risk of decision maker
, utilize its mapping function
, by this interval type traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix
with the weight vectors of index
be converted into
under situation, there is fixed-point values decision matrix
with
;
Step 2: by decision maker's attitudes toward risk factor
fixed-point values traffic pollution evaporative control program decisions matrix under situation
specification turns to
, form weighted normal decision matrix accordingly
, wherein:
,
;
Step 3: at traffic pollution evaporative control scheme weighted normal decision matrix
on basis, determine the Positive ideal point of alternatives set
and Negative ideal point
, that is:
Wherein J is the collection of profit evaluation model index; J ' is the collection of cost type index;
Step 4: according to the positive Negative ideal point of each traffic pollution evaporative control scheme to alternatives set;
Step 5: distance
with
, calculate its connecting to plus-minus ideal solutions
, i.e. the evaluation of estimate of each control program:
。
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Cited By (2)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110599033A (en) * | 2019-09-12 | 2019-12-20 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Dynamic prediction method for goaf spontaneous combustion danger by introducing update factor |
| CN116541654A (en) * | 2023-07-06 | 2023-08-04 | 中汽研汽车检验中心(昆明)有限公司 | Method and device for measuring pollutant emission amount of agricultural harvesting machine |
-
2015
- 2015-08-27 CN CN201510533356.6A patent/CN105574639A/en active Pending
Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN110599033A (en) * | 2019-09-12 | 2019-12-20 | 辽宁工程技术大学 | Dynamic prediction method for goaf spontaneous combustion danger by introducing update factor |
| CN116541654A (en) * | 2023-07-06 | 2023-08-04 | 中汽研汽车检验中心(昆明)有限公司 | Method and device for measuring pollutant emission amount of agricultural harvesting machine |
| CN116541654B (en) * | 2023-07-06 | 2023-09-12 | 中汽研汽车检验中心(昆明)有限公司 | Method and device for measuring pollutant emission amount of agricultural harvesting machine |
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Application publication date: 20160511 |
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