CN105372531A - Transformer insulation thermal aging parameter correlation calculation method based on Weibull distribution model - Google Patents
Transformer insulation thermal aging parameter correlation calculation method based on Weibull distribution model Download PDFInfo
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- 238000009413 insulation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 152
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 28
- 238000003878 thermal aging Methods 0.000 title abstract description 6
- 230000032683 aging Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 115
- 238000006116 polymerization reaction Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 41
- 238000005315 distribution function Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 20
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 10
- HYBBIBNJHNGZAN-UHFFFAOYSA-N furfural Chemical compound O=CC1=CC=CO1 HYBBIBNJHNGZAN-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 28
- 230000000153 supplemental effect Effects 0.000 claims description 15
- 239000004215 Carbon black (E152) Substances 0.000 claims description 13
- 230000015556 catabolic process Effects 0.000 claims description 13
- 229930195733 hydrocarbon Natural products 0.000 claims description 13
- 150000002430 hydrocarbons Chemical class 0.000 claims description 13
- 238000013459 approach Methods 0.000 claims description 8
- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 claims description 8
- WRIDQFICGBMAFQ-UHFFFAOYSA-N (E)-8-Octadecenoic acid Natural products CCCCCCCCCC=CCCCCCCC(O)=O WRIDQFICGBMAFQ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- LQJBNNIYVWPHFW-UHFFFAOYSA-N 20:1omega9c fatty acid Natural products CCCCCCCCCCC=CCCCCCCCC(O)=O LQJBNNIYVWPHFW-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- QSBYPNXLFMSGKH-UHFFFAOYSA-N 9-Heptadecensaeure Natural products CCCCCCCC=CCCCCCCCC(O)=O QSBYPNXLFMSGKH-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- ZQPPMHVWECSIRJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N Oleic acid Natural products CCCCCCCCC=CCCCCCCCC(O)=O ZQPPMHVWECSIRJ-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- 239000005642 Oleic acid Substances 0.000 claims description 7
- QXJSBBXBKPUZAA-UHFFFAOYSA-N isooleic acid Natural products CCCCCCCC=CCCCCCCCCC(O)=O QXJSBBXBKPUZAA-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- ZQPPMHVWECSIRJ-KTKRTIGZSA-N oleic acid Chemical compound CCCCCCCC\C=C/CCCCCCCC(O)=O ZQPPMHVWECSIRJ-KTKRTIGZSA-N 0.000 claims description 7
- 239000002253 acid Substances 0.000 claims description 6
- 238000007476 Maximum Likelihood Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 238000010219 correlation analysis Methods 0.000 claims description 5
- 239000011159 matrix material Substances 0.000 claims description 4
- 238000010606 normalization Methods 0.000 abstract description 12
- 239000000126 substance Substances 0.000 abstract description 4
- 238000012545 processing Methods 0.000 abstract description 2
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 8
- 238000012360 testing method Methods 0.000 description 6
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- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000002474 experimental method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012067 mathematical method Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000000737 periodic effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000005070 sampling Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000012163 sequencing technique Methods 0.000 description 1
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 description 1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01R—MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
- G01R31/00—Arrangements for testing electric properties; Arrangements for locating electric faults; Arrangements for electrical testing characterised by what is being tested not provided for elsewhere
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Abstract
The invention provides a transformer insulation thermal aging parameter correlation calculation method based on a Weibull distribution model. The method comprises the steps that a. data are acquired, and an initial data sample set is acquired; b. a Weibull reliability distribution function model is constructed and initial data are substituted in the model so that a reliability distribution function and a distribution curve of each parameter are acquired; and c. normalization processing is performed on the initial data, a correlation calculation result of insulation oil parameters and polymerization degree parameters is acquired, and comprehensive weight of all transformer insulation thermal aging parameter indexes is determined. Multiple physical, chemical and electrical parameters of insulation oil representing the oil paper insulation thermal aging state are selected, and correlation of the insulation oil characteristic parameter change situation and the insulation paper polymerization degree change situation in the oil paper insulation aging process is periodically analyzed so that the basis can be provided for selection of oil paper insulation thermal aging state assessment indexes, a more comprehensive oil paper insulation state assessment index system can be established, and accuracy of power transformer insulation aging state assessment can be effectively enhanced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power domain, particularly relate to a kind of transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model.
Background technology
Paper oil insulation is the important component part of insulation in power transformer, heat ageing be cause paper oil insulation electrically, one of the principal element of chemistry and the performance degradation such as mechanical.In the past few decades, Chinese scholars is room accelerated aging test by experiment, has formulated insulation ag(e)ing judgment criteria based on chemical parameters and parameter alarm threshold in conjunction with field data, and as the foundation of Research on Power Transformer Oil-paper Insulation heat ageing state estimation.
Insulation paper polymerization degree is criterion the most accurately in paper oil insulation heat ageing state estimation, but the insulating paper sample of power transformer key position is difficult to sampling, have impact on the practical application of this criterion.Paper oil insulation can generate new chemical substance and be dissolved in oil in ageing process.By detecting the situation of change of some chemical substance in insulating oil, the ageing state of paper oil insulation partly can be reflected.The reason of insulating oil, change and electric parameter mainly comprise furfural content in oil, acid number, oil dissolved gas and moisture etc.Chinese scholars have chosen furfural and hydrocarbon content in the oil in the reason of insulating oil, change and electric parameter, analyzes semilog or the linear relationship of they and insulation paper polymerization degree, and attempts calculating insulation paper polymerization degree by incidence relation.But by means of only a small amount of insulating oil parameter and simple semilog or linear relationship analysis, be difficult to accurately calculate insulation paper polymerization degree, certain difficulty is brought to the accurate evaluation of transformer oilpaper insulating thermal ageing state.
Therefore, being the heat ageing state of accurate evaluation Research on Power Transformer Oil-paper Insulation, in the urgent need to choosing the parameter of multiple sign paper oil insulation heat ageing state, and can ensureing that these parameters can obtain easily and accurately.For this problem, need a kind of suitable computing method, can according to the incidence relation of each parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, for choosing of paper oil insulation heat ageing state estimation index provides foundation, thus set up more comprehensively paper oil insulation State Assessment Index System, improve the accuracy rate of transformer insulated assessment.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, the invention provides a kind of transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model, to solve the problem.
Transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model provided by the invention, comprise
A. image data, obtains primary data sample set;
B. build Weibull fiduciary level distribution function model, and primary data is substituted into described model, obtain fiduciary level distribution function and the figure of parameters;
C. primary data is normalized, obtains the relatedness computation result of insulating oil parameter and degree of polymerization parameter, and determine the comprehensive weight of each parameter index of transformer insulated heat ageing.
Further, described step b specifically comprises:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the increase of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the reduction of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
Wherein, x is sample data, and parameter alpha and β adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method to calculate.
Further, described step a comprises: the insulating oil characteristic parameter and the insulation paper polymerization degree characteristic parameter data that gather each time supervision point in paper oil insulation Heat Ageing, according to the data gathered, sets up primary data sample set.
Further, according to fiduciary level distribution function and the figure of parameters, obtain the Weibull probability graph of each data in primary data sample set, judge whether a data meets Weibull distribution.
Further, described in step c, normalized specifically comprises:
Adoption rate transformation approach is normalized paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic, and described ratio transformation approach is:
Wherein, x '
ijx
ijnormalized value, x
ijthe element in correlation analysis in paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic matrix,
m is the number of not heat ageing supplemental characteristic type.
Further, after normalized, evenly choose data point at equal intervals, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, obtain paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level corresponding to described each data point and waveform similarity coefficient respectively, analyze the similarity degree of each insulating oil parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, obtain correlativity calculation result.
Further, the parameter that described paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the increase of aging numerical value comprises furfural content, acid number, H
2content and total hydrocarbon content; The parameter that described paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the reduction of aging numerical value comprises insulation paper polymerization degree, oil breakdown voltage, CO
2with CO ratio.
Further, by H in the oil in described insulating oil heat ageing parameter
2cO in content, oil
2with the major parameter of furfural content in total hydrocarbon content, oil breakdown voltage and oil in CO ratio, oil as paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment, using the minor parameter of oleic acid value as paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment.
Beneficial effect of the present invention: the present invention chooses the reason of the insulating oil of multiple sign paper oil insulation heat ageing state, change and electric parameter, by the correlativity of insulating oil characteristic parameter situation of change and insulation paper polymerization degree situation of change in periodic analysis paper oil insulation ageing process, foundation can be provided for choosing of paper oil insulation heat ageing state estimation index, set up more comprehensively paper oil insulation State Assessment Index System, effectively improve the accuracy rate of electric power transformer insulated ageing state assessment.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described:
Fig. 1 is fiduciary level distribution function Establishing process schematic diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the relation analysis of parameter process flow diagram in the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the invention will be further described: Fig. 1 is principle schematic of the present invention.
As shown in Figure 1, 2, the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model in the present embodiment, comprise
A. image data, obtains primary data sample set;
B. build Weibull fiduciary level distribution function model, and primary data is substituted into described model, obtain fiduciary level distribution function and the distribution curve of parameters;
C. primary data is normalized, obtains the relatedness computation result of insulating oil parameter and degree of polymerization parameter, and determine the comprehensive weight of each parameter index of transformer insulated heat ageing.
The present embodiment, according to the incidence relation of each parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, for choosing of paper oil insulation heat ageing state estimation index provides foundation, thus is set up more comprehensively paper oil insulation State Assessment Index System, is improved the accuracy rate of transformer insulated assessment
In this enforcement, described step b specifically comprises:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the increase of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the reduction of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
Wherein, x is sample data, and parameter alpha and β adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method to calculate.
Insulating oil reason in the present embodiment, change and electric parameter can be divided into two classes, and a class is that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines, as furfural content, acid number, H2 content and total hydrocarbon content with the increase of ageing parameter (fail data) numerical value; Another kind of is that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines, as insulation paper polymerization degree, oil breakdown voltage, CO2/CO ratio with the reduction of ageing parameter (fail data) numerical value.
In the present embodiment, described step a comprises: the insulating oil characteristic parameter and the insulation paper polymerization degree characteristic parameter data that gather each time supervision point in paper oil insulation Heat Ageing, according to the data gathered, sets up primary data sample set.According to fiduciary level distribution function and the distribution curve of parameters, obtain the Weibull probability graph of each data in primary data sample set, judge whether a data meets Weibull distribution.As shown in Figure 2, make the Weibull probability graph of each data in sample set X, under all testing sites, on Weibull probability paper, data point is distributed in the both sides up and down of straight line substantially, then illustrate that this data fit Weibull distributes.
In the present embodiment, described in step c, normalized specifically comprises:
Adoption rate transformation approach is normalized paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic, and described ratio transformation approach is:
Wherein, x '
ijx
ijnormalized value, x
ijthe element in correlation analysis in paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic matrix,
m is the number of not heat ageing supplemental characteristic type.After normalized, evenly choose data point at equal intervals, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, obtain paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level corresponding to described each data point and waveform similarity coefficient respectively, analyze the similarity degree of each insulating oil parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, obtain correlativity calculation result.
In the present embodiment, insulating oil heat ageing reason, change and electric parameter data normalization after span [0,1] between, evenly data point is chosen with the interval of 0.1, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, calculate the paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level of these 10 some correspondences respectively; Calculate based on insulating oil reason, change and the reliability Weibull distribution curve of electric parameter normalized value and the waveform similarity coefficient NCC based on the reliability Weibull distribution curve of insulation paper polymerization degree normalized value; According to result of calculation, analyze the similarity degree of each insulating oil parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, namely obtain correlativity calculation result.
The computing formula of waveform similarity coefficient NCC is:
Wherein, s
1and s
2be respectively normalization waveform 1 and 2 to be compared; Waveform similarity coefficient NCC describes the similarity degree of two waveforms, and the span of NCC is between 0 to 1, and 0 to represent two waveforms completely uncorrelated, and 1 to represent two waveforms identical.
Lift an object lesson below as detailed description:
Step 1. gathers insulating oil characteristic parameter and the insulation paper polymerization degree characteristic parameter data of each time supervision point in paper oil insulation Heat Ageing, and wherein insulating oil characteristic parameter to comprise in furfural in oil breakdown voltage, oil, oleic acid value, oil micro-water content in H2 content, CO2 and CO ratio, total hydrocarbon content, oil.The data that record collects also set up primary data sample set X, and the Monitoring Data of the free monitoring point of information comprised in record and paper oil insulation heat ageing characteristic parameter.
Primary data is updated to Weibull distribution fiduciary level distribution function model by step 2., calculates fiduciary level distribution function and the distribution curve of parameters successively.Make the Weibull probability graph of each data in sample set X, under all testing sites, on Weibull probability paper, data point is distributed in the both sides up and down of straight line substantially, then illustrate that this data fit Weibull distributes.Insulating oil reason, change and electric parameter can be divided into two classes, and a class is that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines, as furfural content, acid number, H2 content and total hydrocarbon content with the increase of ageing parameter (fail data) numerical value; Another kind of is that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines, as insulation paper polymerization degree, oil breakdown voltage, CO2/CO ratio with the reduction of ageing parameter (fail data) numerical value.The parameter increased for declining with paper oil insulation fiduciary level, the Reliability Function of the paper oil insulation adopting Weibull model to set up is
the parameter reduced for declining with paper oil insulation fiduciary level, paper oil insulation Reliability Function is
parameter alpha and β adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method to calculate.
Step 3. selectes waveform similarity coefficient as relation analysis of parameter algorithm, and after primary data being normalized, the relatedness computation result calculating insulating oil parameter and degree of polymerization parameter successively determines the comprehensive weight of each index.Introduce waveform similarity coefficient NCC describe based on insulating oil reason, change and electric parameter paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve and based on insulation paper polymerization degree paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve between correlativity.Initial value or the ageing failure value of considering paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter are not 0, and when setting up the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution function based on heat ageing parameter, the value of ageing parameter can not be 0, therefore ratio transformation approach is selected to be normalized paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic, computing formula is
set up the normalization paper oil insulation fiduciary level distribution function based on Weibull distributed model, compared with before non-normalization, only have the numerical value of Weibull scale parameter α to change to some extent, the Data distribution8 characteristic of paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter in the different heat ageing stage can be embodied.Insulating oil heat ageing reason, change and electric parameter data normalization after span [0,1] between, evenly data point is chosen with the interval of 0.1, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, calculate the paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level of these 10 some correspondences respectively; Calculate based on insulating oil reason, change and the reliability Weibull distribution curve of electric parameter normalized value and the waveform similarity coefficient NCC based on the reliability Weibull distribution curve of insulation paper polymerization degree normalized value; According to result of calculation, analyze the similarity degree of each insulating oil parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, namely obtain correlativity calculation result.
Before Weibull analysis is carried out to paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter, need to supplemental characteristic whether Follow Weibull Distribution is tested.Namely according to the requirement that test figure and Weibull distributed model are checked, the Weibull probability graph of supplemental characteristic is made.Under all testing sites, on Weibull probability paper, data point is distributed in the both sides up and down of straight line substantially, then illustrate that this data fit Weibull distributes.Can be obtained by the Weibull probability graph of paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter, in insulation paper polymerization degree, oil breakdown voltage, oleic acid value, oil, the Heat aged data of furfural content, H2 content, CO2/CO and total hydrocarbon content meets Weibull distribution, and Weibull distributed model therefore can be adopted to carry out paper oil insulation fail-safe analysis to these heat ageing parameters.
Based in the paper oil insulation Reliability Function of heat ageing parameter, Weibull parameter alpha and β adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method to estimate.Obtain data according to paper oil insulation accelerating thermal aging test, calculate Weibull distributed model parameter value and paper oil insulation Reliability Function, as shown in table 1.
Table 1
Known as shown in Table 1, along with the reduction of insulation paper polymerization degree, paper oil insulation fiduciary level reduces gradually, and furfural content in oil breakdown voltage, oleic acid value, oil, H2 content, CO2/CO are similar to the situation of change of insulation paper polymerization degree with the fiduciary level variation tendency of total hydrocarbon content.Only with observing and contrasting the similarity be difficult between accurate description insulating oil Parameters variation situation and degree of polymerization situation of change, therefore need by mathematical tool, analyze the correlation degree between heat ageing reliable in parameters linearity curve and degree of polymerization reliability curve.
Because paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter values has different dimensions and module, be difficult to directly compare analysis; Meanwhile, the calculating of curve waveform similarity coefficient needs normalization waveform.For eliminating paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter different dimension, the order of magnitude and type to the impact of correlation analysis result, standardization processing is carried out to the numerical value of ageing parameter, namely selects suitable mathematical method that different dimension and the insulating oil of character and the numerical value of insulating paper ageing parameter are normalized.
Initial value or the ageing failure value of considering paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter are not 0, and when setting up the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution function based on heat ageing parameter, the value of ageing parameter can not be 0, therefore ratio transformation approach is selected to be normalized paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic, computing formula as shown in the formula, the normalized value obtained is as shown in table 2.
In formula, x '
ijx
ijnormalized value, x
ijbe the element in correlation analysis in paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic matrix, m is the number of not heat ageing supplemental characteristic type;
Table 2
According to the normalized value of data in table 2, set up the paper oil insulation Reliability Function based on Weibull distributed model.Weibull parameter estimation result and paper oil insulation parameter normalization fiduciary level distribution function as shown in table 3.
Table 3
Based on the paper oil insulation fiduciary level distribution function of heat ageing parameter normalization value, compared with before non-normalization, only have the numerical value of Weibull scale parameter α to change to some extent, the Data distribution8 characteristic of paper oil insulation heat ageing parameter in the different heat ageing stage can be embodied.
The calculating of curve waveform similarity coefficient NCC needs on curve, choose certain data point.Insulating oil heat ageing reason, change and electric parameter data normalization after span [0,1] between, evenly data point is chosen with the interval of 0.1, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, calculate the paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level of these 10 some correspondences respectively.Reliability calculating result is analyzed with based on 10 data points corresponding on the paper oil insulation Weibull fiduciary level distribution function of insulation paper polymerization degree.Paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve based on insulating oil ageing parameter is as shown in table 4 with the waveform similarity coefficient calculations result of the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve based on insulation paper polymerization degree.For the fiduciary level of analysis result, between the span [0,1] after parameter normalization, get a little with less interval, interval 0.01, calculate the waveform similarity coefficient of 100 points on paper oil insulation parameter Weibull reliability distribution curve.Result of calculation and the result of calculation shown in table 4 similar.
Table 4
Contrasted from table 4 result of calculation, based on insulating oil reason, change and the paper oil insulation heat ageing Weibull fiduciary level of electric parameter and the paper oil insulation heat ageing Weibull fiduciary level based on insulation paper polymerization degree, there is different similarity degrees.By insulating oil reason, change and the sequencing of similarity of electric parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree reliability Weibull distribution curve, similarity is followed successively by from high to low: 1) H2 (0.9992); 2) CO2/CO (0.9904); 3) total hydrocarbon (0.9830); 4) voltage breakdown (0.9772); 5) furfural (0.9667); 6) acid number (0.9174).Paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve wherein based on H2 content, CO2/CO ratio, total hydrocarbon content three heat ageing parameters in oil is all greater than 0.98 with the similarity based on the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve of insulation paper polymerization degree, there is good incidence relation; All be greater than 0.96 based on furfural content paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve in oil breakdown voltage, oil and the similarity based on the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve of insulation paper polymerization degree, there is good incidence relation; And the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve based on oleic acid value is less than 0.92 with the similarity of the paper oil insulation reliability Weibull distribution curve based on insulation paper polymerization degree, incidence relation is relatively poor.Therefore, in oil in insulating oil heat ageing parameter, in H2 content, oil, in CO2/CO ratio, oil, in total hydrocarbon content, oil breakdown voltage, oil, furfural content etc. can as the major parameter of paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment, and oleic acid value can as the minor parameter of paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment.
What finally illustrate is, above embodiment is only in order to illustrate technical scheme of the present invention and unrestricted, although with reference to preferred embodiment to invention has been detailed description, those of ordinary skill in the art is to be understood that, can modify to technical scheme of the present invention or equivalent replacement, and not departing from aim and the scope of technical solution of the present invention, it all should be encompassed in the middle of right of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1., based on transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method for Weibull distributed model, it is characterized in that: comprise
A. image data, obtains primary data sample set;
B. build Weibull fiduciary level distribution function model, and primary data is substituted into described model, obtain fiduciary level distribution function and the distribution curve of parameters;
C. primary data is normalized, obtains the relatedness computation result of insulating oil parameter and degree of polymerization parameter, and determine the comprehensive weight of each parameter index of transformer insulated heat ageing.
2. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 1, is characterized in that:
Described step b specifically comprises:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the increase of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
For the parameter that paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the reduction of aging numerical value, the Reliability Function of paper oil insulation is:
Wherein, x is sample data, and parameter alpha and β adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method to calculate.
3. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 1, it is characterized in that: described step a comprises: the insulating oil characteristic parameter and the insulation paper polymerization degree characteristic parameter data that gather each time supervision point in paper oil insulation Heat Ageing, according to the data gathered, set up primary data sample set.
4. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 3, it is characterized in that: according to fiduciary level distribution function and the distribution curve of parameters, obtain the Weibull probability graph of each data in primary data sample set, judge whether a data meets Weibull distribution.
5. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described in step c, normalized specifically comprises:
Adoption rate transformation approach is normalized paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic, and described ratio transformation approach is:
Wherein, x '
ijx
ijnormalized value, x
ijthe element in correlation analysis in paper oil insulation heat ageing supplemental characteristic matrix,
m is the number of not heat ageing supplemental characteristic type.
6. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 5, it is characterized in that: after normalized, evenly choose data point at equal intervals, according to the paper oil insulation Weibull Reliability Function based on each ageing parameter, obtain paper oil insulation heat ageing fiduciary level corresponding to described each data point and waveform similarity coefficient respectively, analyze the similarity degree of each insulating oil parameter and insulation paper polymerization degree, obtain correlativity calculation result.
7. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 2, is characterized in that: the parameter that described paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the increase of aging numerical value comprises furfural content, acid number, H
2content and total hydrocarbon content; The parameter that described paper oil insulation fiduciary level declines with the reduction of aging numerical value comprises insulation paper polymerization degree, oil breakdown voltage, CO
2with CO ratio.
8. the transformer insulated heat ageing dependence on parameter computing method based on Weibull distributed model according to claim 7, is characterized in that: by H in the oil in described insulating oil heat ageing parameter
2cO in content, oil
2with the major parameter of furfural content in total hydrocarbon content, oil breakdown voltage and oil in CO ratio, oil as paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment, using the minor parameter of oleic acid value as paper oil insulation heat ageing state reliability assessment.
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| CN114089131A (en) * | 2021-11-03 | 2022-02-25 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Method for detecting aging of insulating oil of natural ester insulating oil transformer |
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| CN114166777A (en) * | 2021-11-30 | 2022-03-11 | 海南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Near infrared spectrum influence factor correction method for insulating paper |
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| CN114460445A (en) * | 2022-02-17 | 2022-05-10 | 重庆大学 | Transformer aging unavailability evaluation method considering aging threshold and service life |
| CN114460445B (en) * | 2022-02-17 | 2024-03-08 | 重庆大学 | Transformer aging unavailability evaluation method considering aging threshold and service life |
| WO2024041281A1 (en) * | 2022-08-25 | 2024-02-29 | 江西亚珀电气有限公司 | Temperature control alarm method and apparatus for three-phase resin insulated dry-type transformer, and device |
| RU2812092C1 (en) * | 2023-03-22 | 2024-01-22 | Публичное акционерное общество энергетики и электрификации "Сахалинэнерго" (ПАО "Сахалинэнерго") | Definer of degree of aging of internal insulation of power oil-filled transformer |
| CN116933099B (en) * | 2023-07-20 | 2024-01-26 | 苏州艾驰博特检测科技有限公司 | Automobile part aging test method, system and medium |
| CN116933099A (en) * | 2023-07-20 | 2023-10-24 | 苏州艾驰博特检测科技有限公司 | Automobile part aging test method, system and medium |
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